Liquidity Crunch 2025: Refinancing Crisis Incoming?

[@maggielake-talkingmarkets]

Connect with me on Substack: maggielake.substack.com 00:00 - Introduction: Global Debt and Inflation Risks 00:01:20 - The Impact of Massive Government Debt 00:03:40 - Liquidity’s Role in Financial Markets 00:06:14 - Inflation and Debt Maturity Concerns 00:10:10 - Federal Reserve’s Policy Dilemma 00:15:00 - The Potential Recession vs. Debt Management Debate 00:18:10 - Bond Market Volatility and Risks 00:25:30 - China’s Role in the Global Dollar Demand 00:32:40 - Japan’s Debt Challenges and Yen Weakness 00:37:50 - Real Assets as Inflation Hedges 00:45:20 - Closing Thoughts: The Importance of Inflation Control

[@warrenburn7058]

Outstanding guest. Thank you Maggie. Michael has been very accurate with his outlook.

[@maggielake-talkingmarkets]

Thank you for listening!

[@skillz4life360]

Howell is top 5 of global macro imo. Great video

[@marcelogenin3016]

And another 4 are?

[@skillz4life360]

@marcelogenin3016 I would say Ray Dalio, Raoul Pal, Stanley Drukenmiller, and I would even put Darius Dale up there even though he's still pretty young for OG status

[@edwardkierklo9757]

I have found your interviews to be among the best. I am familiar thus far with all the great guests and looking forward to new ones I might not be familiar with.

[@grooves.x]

Waiting for Michael Howell!!!

[@bit5tr3am]

Thanks for having Michael on, he’s terrific

[@largocaballero4914]

Epic Michael Howell - you did well get more than most from him. Thank you.

[@Exliptic]

Maggie you are the best interviewer!

[@maggielake-talkingmarkets]

Thank you!!

[@michaelabrahams2264]

She is good.

[@thehungergames8918]

Gold and silver are not a bad idea to hold.

[@mkriskt]

Thanks Maggie and Michael - wonderful discussion, lots of insights. God bless!

[@Readymikeone]

Awesome brain flex going on there. It’s not really possible to design a solid macro based investment strategy unless one puts in the time in to truly understand and embrace what Michael is explaining. He’s one of the few that can properly explain the e=mc2 of global markets, and how that plays into allocations across the big asset classes. Thanks Maggie 🏆

[@dnsinogeorgos]

Maggie you did it again, can't wait for what's coming up next. Amazing insights as always 🔥

[@maggielake-talkingmarkets]

Thank you so much 🙌

[@riffsoffov9291]

From S&P Global's Q3 earnings call:- Now, turning to Ratings, where we saw revenue growth accelerate to 36%, materially exceeding our internal expectations. Transaction revenue grew by 83% in the third quarter, driven by strong activity, particularly in investment-grade and high-yield bonds during what has historically been a seasonally quiet summer period. I'm fairly sure that when I listened, the transaction revenue was linked to the volume of debt being issued, but I can't find that in a transcript. Anyway, I'm wondering if the 83% growth could signal an early start to liquidity getting stretched relative to the debt that needs refinancing. I'm very wary of drawing anything like a firm conclusion, due to my lack of expertise, but maybe someone can tell me if it's a big deal or a nothingburger, or knows someone who can. Thanks for the video Maggie, great guest!

[@B_18200]

Michael is awesome! Thank you!

[@simplyleo644]

Very insightful of the bond markets. Great work Maggie & Michael.

[@maggielake-talkingmarkets]

Thanks so much!

[@brianhanly7280]

Great interview, always love to hear Michael Howell's perspectives

[@barilibill4749]

Maggie, could you have Brent Johnson on your show? He’s on all the financial shows, but I would like you (best financial interviewer) because you always know how to bring out different questions than he

[@omrit2]

He's a broken record, and mostly wrong in past 2 years.

[@lak1294]

Michael is making great points, especially: lower interest rates don't necessarily equal increasing liquidity and, if higher growth (as Trump promises) reignites inflation, the higher prices individuals and companies have to pay reduces cash available for investment and the stock market.

[@golanheights9000]

Plenty of deflationary growth to be had.

[@omrit2]

He's wrong. Liquidity will continue to rise with expanding fiscal demands and money debasement.

[@bobbykanae]

At least with lower interest rates people will have access to cheaper capital again, the economy sucks hard because during the low interest rate environment the gov was competing against businesses and citizens with an unfair advantage of endless money printing. The collective goal is to increase productivity and efficiency or we’ll be back to square one (or worse)

[@lennybriscoe6133]

​@@golanheights9000Only in an Austrian wet dream that never happens.

[@lennybriscoe6133]

​@@golanheights9000Wrong. That fantasy lives only in the feeble juvenile mind of Austrian economists.

[@davidkteacher6933]

Great guest

[@ronaldphoong]

The more the country borrows, inflation continues to grow. It's common sense. 😅

[@AnthonyGiallourakis]

Brilliant interview. Highly recommended.💫💫💫

[@maggielake-talkingmarkets]

Thank you, Michael was awesome!

[@AnthonyGiallourakis]

@@maggielake-talkingmarkets Yes. Few people understand both the reality of the current financial markets and are willing to talk so clearly and frankly about it. I have sent links to this video to several managers and advisors, strongly suggesting they take Michael's opinion into consideration.

[@AnthonyGiallourakis]

@@maggielake-talkingmarkets Something to think about. What if Israel proceeds with a strike on Iranian oil production now? Biden supports with the US military to gain new administration favor. US gets higher oil prices (more tax revenue). Russia gets the same (deal to end the Ukraine war on acceptable terms). Musk sells electric cars..... China loses and has to buy more US and Russian oil at much inflated prices (profits). Israel ends the means by which the Iranians can support the multi-front proxy assaults. Inflation picks up (but it's on the Biden watch). This cannot happen once the new administration is in, because it will tag them with the negative associated with +$120 oil.

[@detectiveofmoneypolitics]

Detective of Money Politics is following this very informative content cheers from VK3GFS and 73s from Frank from Melbourne Australia 😊

[@Venkatmohan2000]

Debt is Exactly equal to Liquidity. Period. One person’s asset is the counter party’s liability.

[@thecarpenter645]

One thing that we all have in common with liquidity is what goes with liquidity and flows in the opposite direction to liquidity, it’s good collateral and that’s what’s going to affect the availability of liquidity a lot. Just my observation only.

[@277trillion]

Debt levels kept rising. Only the most valuable companyjurisdiction on the planet can save it.

[@330trillion]

We are glad Maggie and Michael are coming to their senses. We will own it all and you will be happy. Join the trillionaire revolution.

[@angelawinstone7236]

Maggie, so pleased I found you, after you left Real Vision! You are a brilliant interviewer. You keep the pace well, and always steer the questions in such a thoughtful and intelligent way. Thank you for having Michael Howell on. He’s the liquidity Grand Pooba! Please have him on once a quarter, to keep on top of this critical element affecting markets.

[@maggielake-talkingmarkets]

Thank you so much!!

[@smsfelipe]

Still don't get how higher demand for treasuries due to refinancing wall is negative for liquidity. They will simply issue as much as needed.

[@fvensson6200]

What about inflating the debt away like Gromen suggests is the only way out? Isn’t that more likely than the government decreasing defense and social security? And how does that not equal increased liquidity?

[@lennybriscoe6133]

Bingo. Trump, the self-named king of debt, wants 0% rates and high tariffs and low taxes all of which are inflationary. Mass deportations will spike the wage spiral and ..... oh what could go wrong with the bond market I wonder.

[@thomasthornton5125]

good conversation.

[@maggielake-talkingmarkets]

Thank you!

[@ryanotis7289]

This conversation is sandpapering me to death

[@Stev616L-d2d]

Great stuff guys…… the real stuff !

[@peterbedford2610]

The gov now requires high liquidity and inflation to keep running. Howell has been on point for years now

[@jmcmob608]

Thank you very much...

[@MarkhallPete]

Those cayman islands UST marginal buyers are non other then USDT stable coin funds. Brilliant idea whoever came up with it.

[@brian00182]

Thank you, great conversation!

[@maggielake-talkingmarkets]

Glad you enjoyed it!

[@danfarrand9072]

Lets also remember that higher interest rates means higher income to creditors.

[@ryanotis7289]

So you say they’re kicking the can down the road?! Interesting, pls go on

[@thetruthrenegade]

Aha Moment thanks to Michael, Like Bud Fox said in Wallstreet, Everyone is doing it. EVERYONE IS PLAYING THE DEBT REFINANCE GAME....Your Parents, Your friends on their houses, Small Business owner, Mega Cap Businesses, Gov's Etc.

[@RWROW]

Maggie, hi and thanks. I think you are in David Lin's class in terms of perceptive questions. Just read Lacy Hunt's latest economic analysis from Hoisington's site and his take seems counter to Mr. Howell's. He expects deflation. Yet both have credible supporting arguments. Am I right in seeing them as contrary views, and why are they so different? Be good to hear one react to the other, or a conversation between these two.

[@masonsteed7835]

Not a peep on balance sheet policy from the Fed was tragic

[@thomasthornton5125]

Debt junkies will fix the problem of too much debt with... more debt

[@asclepiushermestrismegistu7489]

Afterall the same people who created the mess has the solutions. Moving along nothing will be fixed.

[@bpb5541]

i think that is true until we get a bond market revolt... Like I don't know, the FED cutting rates and yields going up not down. We might just get our faces ripped right off. 😂

[@klmn2000]

A masterclass in talking a lot without saying anything at all.

[@dexinvictus6103]

💯

[@Bulldozz1-1]

I thought he made a lot of great points.

[@omrit2]

Howell is wrong about the debt wall and refinancing puting pressure on liquidity. The Fed will expand it's balance sheet to support ever rising fiscal spending. Global liquidity will continue to be on the rise.

[@JohnInvest17]

Michael Howell, the legend, the guru of Global Liquidity!

[@GoldTau-o6f]

This mf knows what he’s talking about.

[@danfarrand9072]

Who cares what the interest bill is as long as Treasury can sell debt. That is the way government will always think. Why talk about raising taxes when people dont want to hear it and it's easy to sell more debt. As long as there are debt buyers, then debt is the answer.

[@Venkatmohan2000]

Deflation is the major bogey I see next year. Not inflation.

[@Richard-y5u]

Will all end in tears just like his first term, I doubt Musk and Trump will even be talking by the time he takes office. Liquidity may well be coming to an end sooner than Michael thinks.

[@artfuldiggs2206]

Good guest, good questions. Thank you. The next few months and years could be very interesting. I plan to stay tuned to your show.

[@maggielake-talkingmarkets]

Thank you and welcome aboard!

[@jaym9846]

What ticker measured bond volatility?

[@Dastram12]

@jaym9846 MOVE index

[@240trillion]

It started out all innocent, but became serious. Debt levels. Only one companyjurisdiction on the planet can save it.

[@waltertodd4479]

Trumps hand isnt tied by the finance / bonds markets. He intends to reduce regulatory burdens. Growth will come by freeing or unrestricting markets to do what they do best.

[@bpb5541]

You are dilusional. Sorry Bro: Trump has said he'll bring down mortgage rates - even though 15- and 30-year mortgage rates are fixed, and tied to Treasury yields and the economy. Trump's victory even spurred a rise in the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield, sending mortgage rates higher. And the only thing that solves the debt crisis is more debt. Problem is inflation is really high and stock market valuations are 4 times as high then when he was last in. NO next we go down... how we get there I am not sure. It could be a hyperinfatioanry depression, an out right deflationary depression, or staglfationary deprssion the likes we have never seen. But we get one of those pick. Growth is not coming... we inflate so bad people can't afford anything. Who is going to be buying all this stuff at all time highs... with the purchasing power of the dollar going down... and now with Trump back on office even fast? I think folks think the next 15 years looks like the last 15 years and I think they are very wrong. Next I think we pay for the "sins of the father (both sides)". We just need to watch that 10 year yield it tells all. And it doesn't listen to Trump or Powell or Harris or any of those clowns !!!

[@simrans3675]

Woah - You moved from RV :-)?

[@CJGification]

Mike is the fucking GOAT

[@sumitomoO0O]

when bond yields run higher, Trump will not increase taxes, he will force FED to do yield curve control and he will say inflation is a good thing because it shows the economy is vibrant

[@lennybriscoe6133]

And the cult of stoopid will eat it up.

[@togoni]

👏👏

[@gussoldtimeradioshows4902]

WRONG...Liquity faucet is being turned on in a couple months. Low rates, low taxes, low inflation

[@lennybriscoe6133]

Impossible to have low rates, high tariffs, high debt, and low inflation without a productivity miracle. Get real. Trump is insane.

[@Louis-fn2nq]

I would like a debate between Howell and Raoul Pal because it seems you guys have completely opposing views

[@AnonymousanonymousA]

heard healthcare was the highest cost to GDP In the USA in 2020

[@wyattgormley3129]

Not sure it’s hedge funds buying treasuries out of the Cayman and Luxembourg, fairly sure it’s banks…

[@vincentmurphy9252]

We need a depression not recession but your right 100% we need a hard recession like end of 70s type

[@barilibill4749]

Sorry, sent send accidentally; you have a way of getting different answers by your questions

[@far1762]

Vedem, cine, are, dreptate, myine, seara, totuy, gata, tympu, nu, sta, în, lok⌛, ce, zycy?

[@ZoomedOut2020]

Wonderful insights and perspectives…. I’ve spent the past week asking the tea leaves whether Trump is the next Hoover- or is he perhaps the next FDR..?? I’m going with the Hoover template….The Great Fixer gets handed the steaming bag of 💩 poo…👀👀

[@bluesky2145]

I don't think you'll find Trump raising taxes because he wants to pander to the rich and also he doesn't care if half the government gets laid off. I don't think you're quite understanding how this nut job works

[@adamm2716]

i don't mind powell staying i rather have the fed and the exc at odds, it's part of what made trumps first term work much better than when the fed aligns with the exc and you get what we got last 3 years

[@Mantaray911]

08:45 shoutout to Brent J and his $ Milkshake Theory.

[@adamm2716]

did he really just say trump's not interested in fixing the fascial problems? there is going to be a new committee dedicated to just that. has he even been paying attention?

[@lennybriscoe6133]

Trump is a debt junkie. He will wreck the budget because you can't cut enough spending to offset SS/Medicare/defense spending while raising inflationary taxes like tariffs and dumping interest rates to 0. There won't be any tax revenue either. His budget is garbage and lies.

[@MissMyRyan]

$BTC currently, ATH: $80,500 USD

[@bpb5541]

Just me.. I think BTC goes below 15k before it goes to a million. Just know you might be in for a bit of ride. That sell off is not a sell event... it is a massive back the truck up long event.

[@Fiscus128]

Save yourself some time and jump to the obvious conclusion: inevitable monetary inflation is coming, so hedge against that by investing in real assets, gold, (potentially) bitcoin....... let me guess, the speakers have already invested in it.

[@SoleilRoiLe]

No more subsidies. Do not treat "interest paid" as a tax deductible "expense". And don't tax interest income. Yes, this should apply to individuals and businesses. Mortgage interest paid by individuals and businesses should not be subsidized as an "tax deduction". Share buybacks should be from retained earnings. Tax laws should be simple. And enforced.

[@barrettl2473]

It’s so funny to hear people say bitcoin just tracks with risk on assets or even that it is correlated to liquidity.. There are very few risk assets with anywhere near its performance in the last whatever timeframe… and has global liquidity gone up %8700000 or whatever in 15 years? 😂😂

[@barrettl2473]

You guys are minimizing an asset that you don’t understand and I would suggest not talking about finance going forward until you do. The world has changed.

[@to2455]

Massive Debt Issuance.. Unparalleled Financial Engineering .. Globally Aging Populations.. Short Term Inflation.. Looong Term Deflation…!!

[@PonziZombieKiller]

Black ☠️ Monday

[@adamm2716]

most of the economist i've watch interviews for are worried about deflation from trump policies and he's worried about inflation, interesting

[@raw-bot9251]

Maggie and Raoul Pal ahve branched off building their own channels. It's some strategy that's got to do with revenue generation I'm sure!

[@CoolHandL-u3h]

Afaik Maggie isn't at Real Vision anymore

[@georgelien]

I cannot agree with him more 😂 This is why I have been trading 30Y bonds and TLT ETF, of which, giving me 8% and 15% returns since 2023

[@400trillion]

We are way passed rookie debt levels. We will own it all and you will be happy. All elites gift your assets to the overlord as you preach to the masses. Live as you teach. Give all to your king cash. A nice hard working life awaits you in the fields, tilling the soil, repenting your monetary sins.

[@asclepiushermestrismegistu7489]

Are americans willing to let go of the snap, ebt etc benefits? Will you give up your car? Let's start there?

[@bpb5541]

Well i think inflation comes roaring back while growth slows (regardless of what folks think is going to happen) so stagflation like the world has never seen. They are not just going to give up their car... but they are going to give up their jobs, and their houses too. I worry for folks.

[@illfunk1967]

350 trillion debt! 😳 that’s a result of money creation right and increase in money supply is inflation.. let me know if my understanding is wrong. Not as clever as this guy 😂

[@RWROW]

Trump has a history of defaultingon his debt. Will he do it with government debt?

[@asudbury817]

Great point 👏

[@bpb5541]

Or he just doens't pay it... but I hear you. I think we are at greater risk now of a US default than in any other time in history. He goes and screws around too much not only is Japan and China gonne even stop buying less US Debt (now net sellers), the EU is going to join in ... and if that happens that leaves one option.. and that option is for the FED to come in and be the buyer of last resort... so monitiaztion of the debt which make inflation surge and people around the world to want our debt even less. And this is exactly what I think happens.

[@peterbedford2610]

Defaults on most of his promises, actually

[@lennybriscoe6133]

He will default as he always does, but he'll default in real terms.

[@AloysiusSchicklgruber]

As the fetid fragrance of old rotting debt permeates global capital markets on the hIll the president elect prevaricates and obfuscates preaching to bring home manufacturing while investing heavily in reserve currency status. The absurdity of Triffin's paradox sharply appears...

[@russelasutilla8500]

🙋🏞️🌻❤️

[@seymorefact4333]

✅✅NEED TRUMP NEGATIVE INTEREST RATES from his prior term! and ZERO ZERO TAXES ON INCOME, CAPITAL GAINS, SOCIAL SECURITY, TIPS, etc! this will jump start the ECONOMY with more hiring and buying! ✅✅

[@lennybriscoe6133]

LOL. That's a recipie for high inflation and wildly big deficits.

[@davebrewer7170]

Idiot comments Trump won’t raise taxes Duh Invalidates all comments

[@bpb5541]

Agree but he does do this again: But he was deadly serious about cutting taxes, and his signature legislative achievement, the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017, gave corporations a 40 percent discount on their taxes. It also delivered one of the single largest tax cuts for the wealthy in U.S. history, with the richest 0.1 percent of Americans getting a tax cut that was 277 times larger than that of middle-class households. While the bill didn't live up to its promises of higher pay for workers and increased economic growth, it did line the pockets of shareholders and CEOs, and added $1.9 trillion to the deficit. Are you rich? Just curious?

[@davebrewer7170]

@ his tax cuts benefited working class, whose salaries expanded during Trump 4 years. Portion of total pie going to lowest quartile of workers went DOWN during Obama terms and during Biden term. Stop going with slogans and focus on facts. Biden policies INCREASED the wealth gap. I suspect we are fully aligned that a large and increasing wealth gap is bad for society and bad for America. We are aligned on that goal ? Trump policies resulted in progress towards narrowing the wealth gap and Biden policies increased wealth gap. Those are facts

[@peterbedford2610]

No, he said it was highly unlikely

[@hankhenry5902]

Trump is moving the bureaucracy out of DC out to the various states around the country. Right there 10 to 15 % of bureaucrats will quit or retire. Government spending will drop and the private sector, manufacturing will sore. Howell is far too negative!

[@peterbedford2610]

Yes. And Santa ivlause is real😂

[@bpb5541]

There is no way in hell this happens. It sounds good though. What would make the US Govt do some austerity would be that 10 year yield continuing to climb... that just might rip everyone's face off. Of course folks would look at it like a "financial accident, or crisis". It is not either .. it is coming because everyone has a needle in their arm... the drug... free money. It is going to kill us all. 😂

[@Svoboba]

Short Bonds!!!