Something's Going to Break, We Don't Know What

[@TheCompoundNews]

This episode is sponsored by Rocket Money. Visit: rocketmoney.com/compound and cancel your unwanted subscriptions today!

[@K1NG5LAYER]

What's the name of the intro tune?

[@Crusde]

Greatest financial podcast in social media. Fascinating and insightful guest. Thanks Compound and Friends for telling the truth as it is.

[@williambamann1845]

I feel like I've learned more from this hour than I did in the last 2 months. Incredible conversation.. this should be required listening in all high schools and Econ college classes.

[@adamnash1873]

Eh I don't think so

[@jlcda]

ok , you have to look at that the development plan and the zoning bylaw that fits into the the development plan !!! the plan designates areas that are residential and the zoning designates "lot sizes" set backs etc etc. The "lot size" determines the house size. Developers buy the land , hold the land as inventory, and when they file the development with local gov't , they like large lot sizes so they can build a 3500 sq ft home with cathedral ceilings tripple garages etc, etc , etc . The local govt council like big houses because it attracts "large campaign" contributions and hugher taxes. The is essentially controlled by developers with large land inventories and deep pockets and favourable city/councillors . The low interest rates of 1.5 to 2.5% allowed for so many years ( insanity 15-20yrs ) drove up the size of residential homes because the financing costs were so low. There is no interest at all during this period , or now for building 1200-1500 sq ft homes on 60 ft lots which is a typical starter home. There is a 20 year shortage of simply not building these starter homes. Big oversized homes and land held by developers are still not interested in starter homes . The municipalities / cities have to change these land use laws and cut the time for approvals and build the the infrastructure , roads, rail, water wells , water & hydrant lines , sewer lines , sewage treatment , parks etc etc which are all charged to the land base cost of the lots created why lots cost $40k - $60k before you even build a house. Will take years for starter homes to make a dent.

[@Asdasdssd]

Sorry to hear that lmao

[@Jon-s8q]

Thank you for the greatest podcast on financial matters in the history of the world. Josh Brown rocks.

[@smitd4ty]

Mid-week?! This was great!! Michael Cembalest is definitely at the top of his game!!!

[@dannyhern1673]

this show is so good, never stop recording these

[@jeffwilson8440]

One of the best episodes right here!

[@Czarjonz]

I listen to Mr. Cembalest's podcast, it's great. Dude can explain the market almost as well as Josh.

[@boonescircles3569]

Cembalest is always so great on the show!!! Thx!!

[@sameluckyguy]

Michael Cembalest is a fantastic guest.

[@JL-si6fz]

another incredible show, y'all are nonstop 🔥

[@TheCompoundNews]

Thank you!

[@joealtamuro]

Wait What is happening? WAYT?? But any Compound is better than No Compound!!!👍🏼 Cembalest is awesome!!!!

[@anacisewski7703]

Michael Cembalest thank you.

[@Marchingforward8to5]

Great episode. One of my favorites. Very knowledgeable guest with great presentation.

[@irmazandl]

EXCELLENT podcast today. Michael Cembalest is the best!!!

[@thujone001]

Great guest, MIchael Cembalest is always a great interview.

[@Nedumgottil]

So happy to have two Micheals on the show today. This is my favorite podcast I've listened to in awhile

[@dorothymaccurdy5006]

Wonderful guest....so educational...thank you.

[@rafaelrosa6579]

Cembalest is the very best. SO GOOD to have him.

[@Dr_Snow]

Incredible episode! Every single word was pure gold ❤

[@ianeaston4639]

“Do you have a IPhone 16? Then don’t.” 😂 Josh is the best.

[@donmalawy6072]

Absolute incredible episode and extremely informative !

[@Ryan_Tinney]

Absolute terrific show.

[@indermann9523]

you guys are literally the best

[@KimSp8s]

Excellent conversation!

[@TheCompoundNews]

Thanks!

[@GChizo]

Great Show!

[@shidehtheunissen6381]

Love this and seeing you, Michael!

[@Pug318]

Great podcast

[@digicandy70]

Great Program and a very interesting guest.

[@clubracer6]

That was awesome! Thank you so much!

[@noveltyrobot]

What a champ of a guest

[@ErickaWilliamsCC]

No, literally, children are a grade BEHIND. 22:00 they will not catch up education or economically unless massive tutors and training.

[@richardjones2168]

Awesome show, solid follow up to Tom Lee

[@TheCompoundNews]

Thanks!

[@madshendriksen1795]

Really great insides. Keep this pod going 🎉

[@kristofferrnord]

He said 300k federal employees, did he mean 3 million or just referencing a very specific subset of federal employees?

[@timnoll8400]

Local governments set zoning laws, not presidents.

[@nomoreweebs]

Where past the point were facts matter you basically say whatever you want even if it's blatantly false and there's no consequences .

[@doubleclick21]

Feds dole out money in exchange for all sorts of law/policy changes. (Medicaid expansion, interstate speed limits, etc.) But yeah that's actually ultimately Congress if you want anything meaningful (in theory), but they'd probably eff it up. Probably better luck changing things at the state level.

[@bonfire1484]

Yes BUT the federal gov't can help via the Dept. of Housing & Urban Development (HUD). Of course not with that comatose idiot Ben Carson as HUD Sec't AGAIN.

[@kofiburney]

Excellent point.

[@scotbelsky3296]

tRump will close that department ​@@bonfire1484

[@eh7599]

Best guest. Great show!

[@TheNoobTker]

Such a treat to hear from Mr Cembalest again, thanks guys

[@TordeanRivera]

Awesome episode. I really enjoy your show

[@adamsharp-1]

Exceptional content, @TheCompoundNews. Content like that shared in this episode is a contributor to why traditional media is dying….

[@viaggi3945]

How did a top bank executive get a 7500 subsidy for EV purchase? Please explain.

[@PCPC-z4t]

Your guests are awesome! I love that there is very little fluff and neither is there too much complexity that an average joe investor like me will get lost and bored. Well Done!

[@Hawxxfan]

Michael is correct that increased zoning regulations are positively correlated with increased home prices. Commenters are correct that state and local governments have more power over zoning laws than the federal government. How many excuses do people need to start caring about local elections??

[@ryananderson1810]

We know what will break!! The flow of conversation by Batnick's interruptions!

[@hurleysw]

Outstanding insight! Thank you!

[@450Chicago]

Great discussion. Thank you

[@darkknight783]

This was fascinating, great episode guys!

[@JeffreyELong-hd3xs]

We will need all energy and utilize all of it. Cheaper the better for all of us as humanity.

[@anthonyvillani9621]

This guy was great

[@jeffreyharrison4045]

Wow! Mike Cem is a brilliant guest! I really like how he thinks. Thanks for the episode

[@gobc71]

Bonus Compound and Friends...love it!

[@pyrognosis4754]

Carter appointed Volker. Reagan gets the credit.

[@Markviews2020]

Great guest! Good info!

[@jaym9846]

This was a deep dive (for me)! Thanks

[@carlcaloian3224]

Josh u are a beast. I watched this on 11/30/24 and you freaking predicated what would happen with the matt gatze situation. Props bro, that was beast🎉🎉🎉

[@orioles7023]

zoning regulations are local issues - how is the Federal government supposed to override local control?

[@doubleclick21]

For state and local governments, Federal funds are like mana from heaven. So the Feds offer additional Federal funding in exchange for furthering Federal policies. Ezpz.

[@chasely]

@@doubleclick21I’ll be first in line to applaud the administration if they implement a bunch of YIMBY policies that cascade down to the local level. But I’m not holding my breath. We’re much more likely to see gifts to RE investors like bonus deprecation in the TCJA

[@413Grant]

Thx🎉

[@RobertP123]

Fantastic show.

[@seangrealish8741]

1) Democrats have always sucked on messaging but generally have pretty decent policies. 2) Local governments do zoning, federal has next to no role in home building. 3) Might be correct on Elon not caring about losing the $7,500 credit, but I don't see conservatives lining up to buy Teslas. We'll see in the next couple of quarters. 4) I repeat what I said in point 1. Thanks for this very special episode of The Compound and Friends.

[@mikerusso7095]

Particularly humanitarian policy …

[@wpsarkansan9124]

Conservatives definitely buy teslas

[@zwatwashdc]

Except for the policies that led to the worst inflation in 40 years

[@dialecticalmonist3405]

When conservatives (people who have real jobs), start to get paid better for their real work, they should be able to buy more cars. The problem is, they don't believe in electric cars, but libtards do. And now since libtards hate Musk more than ever, those sales are going take a dip.

[@danielbliss1988]

@@zwatwashdc we had less inflation than every other developed economy, and a large portion of the inflation we DID have was from the indiscriminate way Trump and McConnell gave money to rich people under covid -- they spent it all on real estate in 2021-22 (and also overcooked the stock market which is why we now have downside risk)

[@almogdavid]

You are really really good

[@theusersol]

Josh the new book is fire brother cheers

[@TheCompoundNews]

my man thank you - JB

[@timnoll8400]

Housing prices went up because supply fell due to COVID and interest rates were at all time lows. It takes *years* to build a house.

[@Batwal99onUtube]

A detached sfh takes like a year

[@ab78001]

It was fomo

[@Hawking1969]

Monster intellect and knowledge base

[@JeffreyELong-hd3xs]

AI Assistants will revolutionize our own knowledge with all facts for all generations ahead.

[@cuhullin3539]

I'll say this about the ai issue. I just bought a pair of those meta ray ban smart glasses (primarily for the ability to listen to music while I work). My interactions with the meta ai have been lovely so far. It's actually been helping me with quick measurements (I'm in the construction industry). I think up use cases for these glasses to help me with my work on a pretty regular basis. Once the technology gets refined they'll give me a considerable competitive advantage over carpenters who aren't using them. Those Orion glasses are going to be something else entirely. I can't wait for those things.

[@franciscoalmanzar3050]

Great show. Everything that needed to be said about the DEMS 2024 Blunder !!!

[@sameluckyguy]

Top of his game

[@MrTwistoff]

Would like to see a breakout of traditional Medicare/Medicaid vs Medicare Advantage costs. (My suspicion is Medicare Advantage is a large share of that cost growth.)

[@ronsilva7394]

If Canada needs more truck drivers maybe they should treat them better .

[@scotbelsky3296]

Just Wow!!!!

[@DrewskiOne]

Great stuff!

[@Hofftimusprime1]

Hiring in my area of Michigan (south of Detroit) has not been good. I’ve been on the job hunt two months and have had close to zero responses. Started what I thought was gonna be a seasonal job at UPS this week and found out it a on call job cause they dont have the work.

[@edmundlively8137]

When everyone around the world wants change, you're going to get a business cycle. 😃😃😃😃

[@ctrl-shift-run8681]

A really good conversation. One thing that's held up really well has been the USD but I'm not sure with everything going, that's going to still be true in the next 4 years.

[@JoshJohnson2000]

GOAT guest…also Josh the improvements to Siri haven’t rolled out yet.

[@DDMSakb48]

Talking xxxx about thing they don't know ? surprise, surprise

[@markforno]

two thumbs up 👍👍Great show

[@michaelsimpson2103]

The average home square footage has grown substantially. This is also a factor.

[@MM-ik7ko]

All the new build homes in the denver area are significantly smaller with no yard. I think that trend has already stopped. Maybe regional bias

[@michaelsimpson2103]

@ True. Overall US home data has show large growth over time. Denver and other heavily populated areas probably show a different trend or could be leading a new trend.

[@Username_CC_]

We desperately need land value tax over old restrictive zoning laws and property taxes.

[@DKHOLLA469]

The economic reality for the top 20 percent varies for the bottom 40 percent. Its a tale of two cities

[@JG-hz5kh]

This is a great show. Your guest is very fascinating.

[@richardgodwin2967]

How to increase home ownership? How about eliminating investors being able to depreciate single family homes that are rented. You should continue investors depreciating apartments but not SFRs. Also, eliminate the deductibility of loan interest on SFRs for investors. You should continue to allow owner occupied homes to have interest deductibility. More SFRs would become available if the incentives for investors to own them was eliminated.

[@TomMe-nx8dk]

Awesome interview. My first time hearing this gentleman. Live his insightful discussion

[@UncleToddPM]

Lighting up idle glass fiber is a WHOLE lot different than using idle GPUs. GPU half life is much shorter than installed fiber lines!

[@Jalafian]

I think they're missing part of the proposal. She specifically stated that the government would initiate new housing being built to increase the housing supply. This was completely missed in the conversation like it was never said.

[@Kurofinance]

Compound!!!!! TCAF

[@matt.stevick]

thank you to all at the compound 📈🇺🇸

[@SMTraz]

HELL YEAH! Special night with a special guest.

[@rtbull11]

Holy Monday morning quarterbacking Batman! Everyone has 2020 hindsight.

[@markfrench3665]

One thing to add with the real inflation story is that the PPP did not have to be paid back… 5 trillion dollars air dropped into the system creating massive demand with slow supply coming back online. Perfect storm.

[@jasonchen-alienroid]

FDA regulation is different than EU/Canada/Japan in the sense that it is there to govern that the company has 'processes' that by having 'processes', they are responsible. If an issue arise, FDA would sue it out of existence. Where as the approach in EU/Canada/Japan, you have to 'prove' that it is 'safe' before can be used.

[@ginoderango2516]

Been following Josh's career and the folks at Rithotz for a long time, had the privilege to work with their firm when I was TDA (TD Ameritrade.) They provide the best investment ideas and commentary than perhaps any wealth management firm in America. Congrats Michael and Josh! Continue the stellar work!

[@Eric13478]

Amazing

[@Joeisacat007]

It took me 5 minutes to realize he was talking about the Former United States Secretary of the Treasury.

[@travisvickers]

Great insights as usual, but the anti-Trump bias makes me question some conclusions. The market's performance doesn't always align with our personal political preferences.

[@danhanson9101]

Sounds like Gaetz is perfect for the job. 😂

[@Bobventk]

As a perma bull… nothing makes me bearish like Mike Wilson going bullish.

[@johnkelley1426]

Housing. Nice example with 'regulation'. Yet, the explosion of corporate owned family homes and 2d/3/4th/etc homes creating short-term rentals is conveniently ignored. If we barred corporate owned single family homes, put and triple taxes homes for short term rentals the housing 'crisis' would vanish. My neighborhood HOA bars short term rentals, yet ~35% of these houses are empty 6+ months of the year. Housing is a distribution/allocation problem as much as a regulatory problem.

[@OscarSteglich-x2x]

Appreciate the detailed breakdown! Could you help me with something unrelated: My OKX wallet holds some USDT, and I have the seed phrase. (alarm fetch churn bridge exercise tape speak race clerk couch crater letter). How should I go about transferring them to Binance?

[@a420-b3q]

I think Michael's right here, I don't think the messaging as they would frame it would have moved the average vote that much that's just not the framing the majority of the population has around economic issues and the vast majority of the population has legitimately lost purchasing power relative to earnings and wealth gains.

[@meknizdceo701]

WOW!!