NBA Fantasy Basketball Drafts Best & Worst Case Scenarios for Every Round

[@LockedOnFantasyBasketball]

What are your thoughts on Fred VanVleet's ranking at 38 on Yahoo? Too high, too low, or just right?

[@g1llifer]

I think he should be more in the low 30s.

[@lrm3874]

FVV at 38 is amazing value... he should go in early-mid 20s.

[@Mavkor]

@@lrm3874lol

[@Pokemarquet]

If rockets remain competitive this is a great pick before 40

[@vijaytahal6271]

Always too low...it's the raptors bias lol

[@Tigermantt]

Don’t worry Josh, we love the specifics. I loved this take on each round. Plus, having the range numbers are better than rounds in the case it’s a 14 or 16 player league.

[@CrissWang]

As a graduate with a thesis regarding variance and risk control, I find this episode very intriguing and interesting, GJ Josh

[@phuhoang4678]

Josh you are a very dedicated analyst in this genre and I appreciate your reasoning and explanation. No one is 100% correct but you are more correct than other youtubers. Ppl will never let you forget about Poole though lol

[@ScroopyHoopers]

Fred’s statistical variance is so tight cuz he’s in a contract year ;)

[@LockedOnFantasyBasketball]

i think you might be right

[@ReboundBosh]

Great ep. Can you add just a bit more color on how you got best and worst cases? It sounded from the show (at 15:08) like you put uniform +/- multipliers on everyone's raw stats? Or is that a +/- in stdev? Thank you!

[@joshknowles1543]

This is a super interesting concept. Would be awesome to see a full list of best & worst case scenarios for every draftable player.

[@CarloBarlo69]

This is very helpful. I would appreciate seeing the top two widest and narrowest variances. It’s a great concept thank you for bringing this up to us

[@alexandercuskelly2988]

Absolutely love the video, definitely helps with being stuck between players and gives a good idea on what the possible value picks are, any chance of doing a points league video? Thanks heaps!

[@octaviot8488]

This was very interesting and informative, is there any chance of a post with full list of your research?

[@NITZER666]

Hey great info as always. I have signed up to BBM for the 4th season. I love the site for all that it provides especially the draft tracker. That being said, will you be doing any videos on how to set yourself for a draft using the BBM tools? I know you have mentioned before about setting "weights" on categories like steals and blocks. What you suggest for a 9 category roto league?

[@benwojtczak4888]

This is a great episode love the idea of player ranges for videos.

[@danielzitnik4247]

Great insight. And the bit about steals actually highlights why my $350 teams (on a $200 budget) aren't as dominant as it seems at first blush lol

[@sayginartiran]

This is super useful, Josh. Thanks!

[@LockedOnFantasyBasketball]

Glad it was helpful!

[@Stylesofbeyondd]

Great video mate! I’m wondering for best case and worst case of each player, how different was your calculation of the scenarios for each player? I’m sure it’s not 10% rebound, 5% block, 5% steal like a standard formula, since every player and situation is different. This is probably not even possible, but just trying to see if looking at a regular list of projections, how should we think of best and worst case in as much of a standardised way as possible if that makes sense

[@LockedOnFantasyBasketball]

i put a standard percentage across all players, so nothing individualised

[@dominic9625]

thank you josh this is very informative !!!!!!!

[@ivanchow8402]

Josh, I'm in a 10 team 9 cat keeper's league - I'm holding onto Shai for sure, but I still have KD, Lauri, Fox, and Maxey. Kinda spooked about your KD projections. Who should I hold on to? Thanks!

[@SunnyVi3wz]

Great content. More info on the basketball bowl!

[@konstantinsspirins9724]

Would have loved yo see this for rookies after you did last round. Interesting how they project

[@ichirosuzuki2252]

I'd be interested in retroactively seeing what Scottie Barnes' variance would have been going into last year's season. His performance seemed to come out of nowhere relative to his previous year.

[@kevinr-u5341]

Hey Josh, I was hoping you could post a 9-cat 16 team mock draft. I think that would help a lot of your fans, including me 😁

[@LockedOnFantasyBasketball]

i will, but 16 teamers are a very small percentage, like 5% i think

[@kevinr-u5341]

@@LockedOnFantasyBasketball I appreciate the content you can produce that can help the 5%! Much Love Brother!

[@CarloBarlo69]

@@LockedOnFantasyBasketball It would also help 12/14 team leagues either bigger benches. Like my league

[@omri7593]

Great show Josh!

[@CharlesAshton-x6v]

Josh would you ever consider doing a "perfect draft" video like Dan Desbris does where you look at the best value player available in the middle of each draft round?

[@LockedOnFantasyBasketball]

yes I have done that the last 3-4 years

[@user-gd8xm3eb9t]

I can't tell you how much this concept has helped me in leagues! Knowing that a guy is unsustainably hot or cold saved me from bad adds/trades and gotten me good ones. It's so easy to recognize too with practice and looking at the right indicators. Appreciate your work!

[@CorbinSupak-nj3tj]

be nice to see each tier as boxplots -- what is the logic to create the ranges?

[@mardydare1896]

Hey Josh, Can you please do a video of a 12 team H2H mock with pick 1?

[@LockedOnFantasyBasketball]

Yes I do one from each spot

[@danielschomburg2140]

So am I correct in thinking the take away from this is to not highly value the variable categories when drafting? Essentially try to get your steals, blocks, and FT% but don't commit heavily to these categories because they can always wreck your drafts if things don't break correctly or consistently like the other categories will more likely? Last season I tried to draft every player that was a good defender hoping to win steals+blocks and I did absolutely aweful no surprise there.

[@LockedOnFantasyBasketball]

Yeah that’s not a bad takeaway. It’s more don’t put extreme reliance on the guys you have replicating these numbers week on week and year on year. If you’re strong in them, be very very strong

[@thomasjurasits4254]

How can we join the locked on league if we didn't play last year?

[@Sunny-eg1ut]

These ranges are clearly category based. Please make one for those in points leagues. Still enjoyed thed content.

[@djw.010]

I may have missed it. But is this also applicable for points league or just CATS?

[@LockedOnFantasyBasketball]

The data was from category leagues but I think the general idea will apply across the board

[@JonBT]

Comment comment comment. Keep up the great work!

[@wjj76]

Love Randle around 50

[@626lifeaa]

The intros are hot this year 🥵

[@kentlouisaglubat9270]

16T 9cat no IL, where will you draft kawhi comfortably?

[@LockedOnFantasyBasketball]

80

[@ahmedkadiri27]

What do you think about Giannis’s range and his ability to hit FTs?

[@LockedOnFantasyBasketball]

His ability to hit free throws has no real bearing on his value or range in h2h leagues

[@anabolicoutpost]

Virgin Lloyd or Chad Longstaff?

[@c0br4mckewl]

lockedonfantasybowl first timer?

[@wjj76]

KD is an injury waiting to happen. Im not interested in top 15 for him

[@joshuarasam2162]

We gotta celebrate our differences ㊙️🈲㊗️💮🉐

[@SlicedMango17]

Could you do a 14 team Roto draft with 3rd round reversal?

[@LockedOnFantasyBasketball]

not gonna lie to you. almost definitely not, given that is not going to apply to very many people at all

[@dropknow1edge]

You guys are hyping Wemby a bit much this season. The same way yall did Haliburton last season.

[@LockedOnFantasyBasketball]

Haliburton ranked 5th before he was injured

[@dropknow1edge]

@@LockedOnFantasyBasketball he’s a second round pick. With the likes of Trae Young, Lillard, and LaMelo Ball..in regards to point guards

[@LockedOnFantasyBasketball]

@@dropknow1edge I would love to see who your first round is then

[@dropknow1edge]

@@LockedOnFantasyBasketball the classics . Jokic, Embiid, Giannis, Luka. Curry.

[@LockedOnFantasyBasketball]

@@dropknow1edge the other 7? Also curry wasn’t a first rounder last season

[@savagehcr2232]

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