SUBSCRIBE TO OUR FREE NEWSLETTER at adamtaggart.substack.com (or upgrade to premium to receive our "Adam's Notes" summaries to this interview & all others on this channel, plus the new MacroPass service)
@steve5976Ай бұрын
Thanks guys 🙏
@trevoroverall7158Ай бұрын
@Adam, I think you make too many statements and opinions taking up too much time, rather than let your guest speak.
@davecorley5514Ай бұрын
@@trevoroverall7158With respect, I couldn’t disagree more. Luke is a macro financial genius. I am not. I believe I represent the mean of Adam’s listeners. I have wealth to re-allocate, I need insights from guys like Luke, his tech descriptions are way above my head, I need a translator during this session, Adam is a phenomenal translator and “what-iffer”. Adam’s opinion about potential social instability and Maslow’s hierarchy of needs is certainly his own. But it’s one that’s important to me. It also stimulated Luke to discuss his point about not loaning 4% long-term (>6 months) money to liars. That’s Luke Gromen gold.
@warntheidiotmasses7114Ай бұрын
Do they even have to tell the truth about anything? jobs data? Could all be lies. I'd say they're sending billions to their foreign buds to fight real or imaginary enemies which is promptly converted to Bitcon until other assets can be purchased, GODS, Gold Oil Drugs and Slaves. If one is going to take over the world you'd want the dollar to strengthen. They way the dollar strengthens is by loaning a lot of it out there in the hopes defaults begin. As dollars are owed the interest has to be paid back with the principle. As defaults destroy dollars rates rise. rising rates make the dollar stronger not weaker. Rising rates are inflationary giving reason to raise rates further. How many family farms were takien over in the late 70's? They can take over the world during the next financial crisis. I think these pundits need to think in terms of conspiracies and not so much about economics or finance.
@ssuwandi3240Күн бұрын
Well Luke should get invited for potential Kamala's Communism😊
@olenanewton364Ай бұрын
Adam, just wanted to say that the way you can summarise and simplify guest's ideas for "the average Joe" listener as well question their suppositions based on your knowledge, your ability to ask (the follow up) questions as well as add to the conversation are probably parallel to none in this space. Great work as usual 👏!
@christianlorenz843Ай бұрын
Luke is one of the great ones! 100% regarding his comments at minute 42. Thanks to both of you! Good to see you're on your own and doing well, Adam.
@993C2SАй бұрын
Luke is great. Please bring him back often. Thank you.
@insomniactravels6185Ай бұрын
Can never have enough Luke Gromen! Have him back sooner rather than later!!
@SilvangreenАй бұрын
Great to hear from Luke. I see him adapting to the ever-increasing “creativity” of institutions to contain chaos by expanding his sense of what is possible while understanding what is probable remains more limited.
@demiswilson9449Ай бұрын
What a guy! Just the Facts, Every Time - Thank you Luke (and Adam for having him on).
@lawrencelarosa612Ай бұрын
Kudos to Luke for publicly acknowledging the U.S. has a massive corruption problem.
@johnhenryreber2501Ай бұрын
He's said he's from Cleveland so he is not as cuth or proper as some people
@clackyoung8977Ай бұрын
In trading, possessing technical analysis skills is not sufficient on its own; discipline and emotional maturity play crucial roles in achieving success. Embracing the mindset of "time in the market vs. timing the market" proves valuable, especially during market fluctuations. I attribute my growing daily earnings to Jane Nina Pickett's valuable insights and daily trade signals, coupled with my commitment to continuous learning. Kudos to the journey ahead!
@keithwalter286Ай бұрын
I've just looked up her full name on my browser and found her webpage without sweat, very much appreciate this
@agiacoАй бұрын
It's truly refreshing to see a comment about Jane Nina Pickett. I've also had the pleasure of working with her for several months after discovering more about her online. She has a knack for simplifying complex issues, whether it's a market surge or decline. Her approach consistently keeps you ahead of the curve. I'd call her a guru, for sure
@reyescook267Ай бұрын
Nice to see this here. Jane's understanding of market indicators is impressive. She knows exactly when to enter and exit trades for maximum profit. her siignals are top notch
@ana22btossАй бұрын
Over the years, I've been a part of numerous trading programs, sifting through a barrage of information. Yet, nothing has come close to the sheer clarity, depth, and precision of Pickett's insights. It's akin to finding a diamond in a coal mine.
@markphillips9822Ай бұрын
The government may never default. But who wants Monoply money? Which is what we will have. Useless dollars.
@bleueyeddevlАй бұрын
It feels like that's already here. A job promotion may offer $400/month increase to take on more - tighten the leash. PASS.
@showandtell4265Ай бұрын
Monopoly money is the norm across the modern world.... We are (were) the exception.
@steve5976Ай бұрын
Not “useless” . You can still / will trade and exchange . The correct term is “worthless”
@clintcowan9424Ай бұрын
When I play monopoly I want monopoly money. 😊 Otherwise nope
@danielhutchinson6604Ай бұрын
Treasury and FED are aware that they have not actively supported the FED for 20 years. They now appear to face the music, as the lies seem to be showing on Powell and Yellen's Face..... They are tired from telling lies. American Consumers appear to notice and they are slowing the spending. Demand for Gas is down, so perhaps Consumer desires to consume, are slowing down? Gas Supplies have decreased after Russia and Saudi Producers agreed to cut production. I attribute the slow down to Americans understanding that unlimited spending will not help. There was a little unrestrained splurging to get it while you can. But that emotion seemed to be short lived. Bernanke and Paulson arranged to provide additional Credit with the 5 big Banks. Now consumer Debt is $5 trillion higher. Credit has provided spending, at a cost. Big Spenders still seem to consume, but Average Americans can not endure an entire pay period, without credit. The Consumers appear to have realized their Debt issue before the Government saw the Gov. problems. So the Consumers are smarter than they look.
@harpoen7358Ай бұрын
Interviews with Luke Gromen are always very wise to follow, his insights are always interesting to hear because he is an out of the box thinker. Certainly a recommendation for a New interview👍
@carbonsubieАй бұрын
Always amazed that Luke doesn't have more followers here on KZbin. The guy is super sharp.
@4000angelsАй бұрын
It is great to see Luke on Thoughtful Money. Excellent interview as always. Thanks, Adam.
@RobWilliams007Ай бұрын
Part of the - “hard to get a job” problem is because of the way you apply for a job now. You apply online and algorithms pick out the Resumes/CV’s and you never have a chance to speak to anyone to sell yourself or show your personality as being a good fit. Funny how they made us all go back into the office so we can “engage and collaborate” but they don’t “engage” with applicants.
@amandalee5378Ай бұрын
This is so very true... More then ever real networking is going to matter again!!...... the whole online resume and applications only help people looking for a quick high Turner jobs. I think those looking for a long term career people need to Network again. It sucks.
@davecorley5514Ай бұрын
Thank you, Luke and Adam. Putting this video in my “Macro gems” folder!
@marcopolo242Ай бұрын
Great discussion, guys.
@perewihongi4715Ай бұрын
it can't happen forever, but it can happen for a very long time
@patrickmcgoohan115Ай бұрын
Luke Gromen & Lyn Aldren see the way going forward I feel. That said it's differcult predicting the next chess move when the chessmaster can change the game rules.
@FreeSpeech4AllАй бұрын
Excellent interview guest!!! Better yet would be to see him debate Lance on the UST trade. We all notice Lance just mockingly and condescendingly dismisses everyone who suggests rates may go higher by simply suggesting "they can't because we can't afford it"... but I'd like to see Lance have to actually defend that position face to face against someone who actually challenges him (and that's not you, Adam. Sorry.)
@johnhackney180Ай бұрын
Higher rates will [can]not be allowed. Yield curve control.
@DoomsdayPrepper-u2nАй бұрын
Adam doesn't allow opposing views on his show, and he'll chat ban you if you prove him wrong.
@FreeSpeech4AllАй бұрын
@@johnhackney180 Sadly you have the exact same (non) argument as Lance. Repeating it doesn't make it true, Goebbels. Yes, we can (and will) do yield curve control, but that requires money printing. And we can print an infinite amount of money (albeit highly inflationary) which means we can ALSO afford ANY interest rate if we print enough... so that's where things diverge. (A) We can print a TON of money and push yields lower, or... (B) We can print just enough money to keep rates from rising too high, too fast... (and attempt to tax that money away via higher capital gains/income taxes to pay the additional interest.) The latter scenario is one Lance not only hasn't considered, but absolutely refuses to acknowledge exists.
@deseosuhoАй бұрын
I don't think the argument is that difficult to understand. The higher the rates, the more the indebted players with large outstanding balances suffer. The US government is extremely indebted. The federal reserve is a public-private partnership with equal stakeholders drawn from large banks and the government. When choosing the lesser evil, both of those entities prefer double digit inflation to collapse and bank runs. Therefore, in the long-term, they will prefer lower rates and higher inflation. The burden of proof is on your side to explain why they would want to increase the cost of servicing the US government's debt and create deflation... because it's such a bizarre goal from the perspective of the relevant parties.
@FreeSpeech4AllАй бұрын
@@deseosuho Read my response to johnhackney above. You, like Lance and most Keynesians, are trapped in the erroneous thinking that there are only two scenarios; (a) higher rates & deflation or (b) lower rates and inflation. This is the trap. Since we can print infinite money to buy our own bonds (albeit inflationary) we can actually have higher inflation (from the money printing) along with higher rates (from only buying enough bonds to control the pace of the rise.) Why would TPTB do this? Simple. To get rich off the rest of humanity, as always. MOST humans are stupid linear thinkers and have experienced 40 years (half a lifetime) of falling rates. It will take them another 10-20 years to realize that's changed. TPTB think cyclically and have set everyone up with talk of CBDCs and negative rates to encourage that thinking... while they actually intend to "reset" the cycle of rates back to the beginning (like Voelker) around 15-20%. One could almost call it "The Great Reset". People conditioned for 40 years that Treasuries are the safest thing you can own, will lose their life's savings as bond prices collapse... along with most stocks as rates continue higher. It's the unwind of Exeter's pyramid. Want proof? Take a look at what asset Central Banks have been buying recently. (Also note that Yellen is issuing new Treasuries at higher rates to buy back older Treasuries with lower yield. While this IS somewhat stupid, it's not nearly as dumb as people think... because of bond math. Why? Because as rates have gone from 1.5% to 4.5% then the debt issued at 1.5% is now worth ½ to ⅓ of its original issue... so I can sell ONE Treasury at 4.5% to buy back TWO or THREE Treasuries at 1.5%... and voila, magically the amount of debt outstanding is reduced. 😳😯 Yeah, you hadn't thought about that one, did you?) 😉
@BatmanBossАй бұрын
Thanks guys! Great show
@adam.taggartАй бұрын
Glad you enjoyed it!
@louismentillo9315Ай бұрын
great guest, always like to hear from Luke
@johnvalencia3185Ай бұрын
I think Luke is a very thoughtful guest, but my issue with him is that he makes everything sound so easy when I do not believe it is. For example, he talks casually about "the central planners will just devalue the dollar". He sounds as if no other country has a say in the matter - sounds like he suggests there would be a currency war and we would just get the result we want. I question that. Or the government could do "entitlement reform" in 2025 - nothing will get done in Congress if there is divided gov't, especially entitlement reform. I do remember him talking 4 years ago about how there will be money printing and gold would be at $5000 in a few years (at the time it was around $1700). Well, that has not happened yet. There are various scenarios with differing probabilities but he really only talks about deterministic results rather than stochastic. But I do agree with his assessment of the debt problem and the likelihood of more QE coming.
@davrossbain7010Ай бұрын
Luke Gromen is the best! More Luke!
@ocox8659Ай бұрын
I see “Luke Groman” and immediately hit play.
@zipper1209Ай бұрын
Great video, thank you both for this honest conversation.
@samanthak5301Ай бұрын
Luke Gromen provides great insights and knows how to connect dots in a different but persuasive way than others. As soon as I see his name, hit the watch button!!
@ellenhoyt8558Ай бұрын
Adam, would love to see you host a conversation between Luke and Javier Blas on the petrodollar
@AlKindi9Ай бұрын
Wow. Timestamps. He’s getting fancy!
@robot5845Ай бұрын
Really smart guest, thank you
@VMNEOАй бұрын
great interview, thank you!
@mattanderson6672Ай бұрын
Really interesting, thanks for having Luke back!! One of your best guests
@DarrenSmith-tq2xzАй бұрын
Thanks once again luke and Adam for this great content once again God bless you both
@user-99.99Ай бұрын
Excellent discussion. Gromen is spot on. I’m still trying to get used to this new background. When I see it I think that Adam is in the belly of a python. 😂
@mrbruceriddellАй бұрын
Great interview Adam
@MichaelHarrington17Ай бұрын
Is there any doubt central banks and national treasuries will supply liquidity to the global financial system? It’s the depreciation of a global fiat monetary system.
@JeganBedpalАй бұрын
The US economy is a powerhouse with a diverse range of sectors. The stock market and the dollar have traditionally been safe havens due to their long-term growth and stability. However, potential downturns are part of the economic cycle, and laws are in place to manage defaults and asset seizures. Inflation can be a concern, but remember, certain assets like stocks and Crypto’s acts as a hedge. Long & short-term trading is generally safer, allowing investors to weather market volatility. I have managed to grow a nest egg of around 100k to a decent 432k in the space of a few months... I'm especially grateful to Kerrie Farrell, whose deep expertise and traditional trading acumen have been invaluable in this challenging, ever-evolving financial landscape...
@duongtuan-od7kxАй бұрын
I appreciate the professionalism and dedication of the team behind Kerrie’s trade signal service..
@MarcDillon524Ай бұрын
As a beginner, it's essential for you to have a mentor to keep you accountable..
@KellarHalenАй бұрын
Kerrie Farrell program is widely available online.
@JovenoliАй бұрын
Investing with an expert is the best strategy for beginners and busy investors, as most failures and losses in investment usually happen when you invest without proper guidance. I'm speaking from experience..
@BanwarilalKumawat-ij6tpАй бұрын
On the grand scheme of things, once you understand the potential of trad!ng, you can bet on it but I think people need the education to fully understand...
@auntiefiat9769Ай бұрын
I think the majority of adults in the USA have a wrong-headed definition of "doing well".
@thomaskelly6472Ай бұрын
Another great guest!
@libran101257Ай бұрын
I believe that we are socially at a breaking point where people cannot feed or house themselves properly. They can lie all they want, but people cannot lie to themselves about being hungry while a few lead the luxurious life there will be a social upheaval around the whole world that will tear all of this down.
@beary0418Ай бұрын
Luke is great
@joycekoch5746Ай бұрын
It would be refreshing to have a guest who had the guts to say who they are voting for instead of the endless repeating "They're all bad" or the constipated expression and comment "Not gonna vote for any of these idiots". Let us start getting shows which end "Who are you voting for and why".
@arthurpowers3724Ай бұрын
This suggestion assumes that we are in full possession of the knowledge as to who the actual candidates are going to be, and in my view, we are not, and possibly not even close (I hope and pray as neither current front-stumbling candidates are even remotely suitable/capable of doing anything but wrecking the United States as we and the World have known it since 1960 economically and culturally). [Denver]
@jamesmurphy3263Ай бұрын
Let’s get Luke and Lance to have a discussion on this topic.
@amandalee5378Ай бұрын
Would be absolutely amazing!!.... YES YES YES!!
@timbarnes5548Ай бұрын
Appreciate how you breakdown complex issues in a manner that is understandable (great tactic by rephrasing what guests say to provide further context). Enjoy your work...also great job with deadlifts!
@LiquidityOcelotАй бұрын
I’ve found that when the market is going down and you buy funds wisely, at some point in the future you will be happy
@jaytan915Ай бұрын
AT with the best questions for LG with the best macro-economic model, thanks for an enlightening hour of crystal balling going forward.
@mxm7688Ай бұрын
great interview, thank you Adam and Luke
@crouchhillАй бұрын
Love Luke 😊
@mikerivera5314Ай бұрын
Very informative interview.
@caroledoerr6872Ай бұрын
Luke, I like listening to your views on the economy!
@jmcmob608Ай бұрын
Thank you very much...
@robertlevi3202Ай бұрын
They're laughing and we are broke, elite mf'ers.
@HaroldGielowАй бұрын
Kennedy is talking about the deficit and he is talking about cutting defense spending dramatically.
@caucasianafrican1435Ай бұрын
Waaaaaa
@XxChuyoxXАй бұрын
@@HaroldGielowKennedy is pandering because he will never get elected
@charlesdidonato5478Ай бұрын
Luke is the man!👍👍👍
@JJ-ji4knАй бұрын
You do a great job interviewing these very thoughtfull individuals. Bring him back again.
@Natalia.B.GallazziАй бұрын
these people need to be told about the French Revolution.
@zelo533Ай бұрын
I like Luke
@lawLess-fs1qxАй бұрын
thank god Powell said he's gonna cut. it'll offset the lack of liquity.
@aleaiactaest8354Ай бұрын
Would be interesting to have a program on what different president candidate mean for spending and the economy.
@ALF-wh6inАй бұрын
Luke is the man
@jeannewright3027Ай бұрын
Adam….I do not think a bunch will end up spread around to next gens coming in wealth as boomers die off. Boomers with some retirement assets by living longer will go through much of it, the really well off will be able to pass on, but again, in that case it’s money makes money but that won’t be that big of % involved to receive big chunks. You think more like me on what is coming.
@marycollins8215Ай бұрын
Thank you.
@renaudlaine3287Ай бұрын
Great content, great background 👌
@adam.taggartАй бұрын
Thank you 🙌
@stanleytomasetti1074Ай бұрын
He can't see the forest for the trees for himself.
@rd9102Ай бұрын
I like this guy but he needs a better camera and a better microphone and a better internet connection. It's kind of rough to watch him sometimes with all the stuttering and low video quality.
@TPayne-fm8ieАй бұрын
I like the new background, Adam. It's very eco-chic.
@RobWilliams007Ай бұрын
Adam, you should get Ophir Gottlieb on your show. Excellent insight.
@YunggrippacuzАй бұрын
Loved this one adam. Hope you get to 100k subs
@jimmyschannel5094Ай бұрын
Definitely one of your best ever to interview!!
@jethro_JrАй бұрын
i tuned in because Luke Groman was on.... 😙
@justinjtv4089Ай бұрын
let's get a Luke vs Rosie debate on the long end. Rosie claims the long end will give "equity like returns" over the coming years. I tend to be on the same page as Luke here but I'd like to see them go point for point on the matter 😊
@standinginthegap7118Ай бұрын
He’s got a point about doing just T bills. And they’ll have to keep issuing t bills at higher Rates because they have to pay the debt
@jeffreygoss8109Ай бұрын
Where can I buy these “ monkey j pegs” ? Seems like good investment
@Dave-lm5ic27 күн бұрын
How would one rip the band aid off in early 2025? What specifically would that entail to devalue the debt? Simply say it's worth half? Or how?
@mechannel7046Ай бұрын
12:10 treasury yield and gold p 25:40 keeping the 98% divided 33:50 most Healthcare spendings occur twds end of life, counted as GDP 9:40 fiscal dominance
@jimscherer8072Ай бұрын
Luke doesn't pull punches. Please bring him back !
@sreddick3045Ай бұрын
Great content !
@MS-dx6yzАй бұрын
I liked the old background better. [Not the curtains...the wood]
@fjb7380Ай бұрын
Dude speaks the truth
@caucasianafrican1435Ай бұрын
Fire the Federal Government.
@gussoldtimeradioshows4902Ай бұрын
Another record day, where's the lag effect?
@jvancekАй бұрын
Adam you dont need more working age people to maintain economic growth. With robots coming Demographics really don't matter
@tonequin4562Ай бұрын
“Luke, use the FORCE, Luke”
@barrywagoner5191Ай бұрын
I would trade my least favorite relative for a crystal ball to know what happens over the next 6 months.
@tgwtomАй бұрын
Don’t worry the next gain of function will enable the expedited wealth transfer they want
@JoseCatedral-vw4jsАй бұрын
We won't fall for it that easy again😂
@barrybearman3511Ай бұрын
They will try. This may require more active disagreement
@SR-zu9pnАй бұрын
Thanks for the reminders.
@aleaiactaest8354Ай бұрын
What about these government programs...writing off student debt, give funding/support for first time buyers of house etc. Government giving money to masses? Is this what is coming?
@jonathonhancock575Ай бұрын
The only thing drying up is youtube economist credibility?
@doctoruttleyАй бұрын
100%
@james6401Ай бұрын
Perhaps
@DH-oi4krАй бұрын
No trust the Fed and the politicians dishing out cool aid
@safaayaanMiboxАй бұрын
😂 sarcastic
@PredTradesАй бұрын
Possibly. Or most people don’t understand how long macro outlooks actually take to unfold.
@jenniferhackney4616Ай бұрын
Whether you think you can or think you can’t… Deep.
@michaelengel3045Ай бұрын
U might lose money selling physical gold. Jewelry stores will pay scrap prices. Smelting cost is high. Then there is 3%/4% provision for losses and a deflated karat ratio of the composition. U buy at retail and sell 25%/40% below wholesale prices.
@YourLifejacketFirstАй бұрын
What are you smoking?
@vaughandinsmore2487Ай бұрын
I must be gettin kinda old, so says my HP 11C calculator... 🖥
@gooberusmaximus5362Ай бұрын
When basel 3 endgame talk with ddb?
@joycekoch5746Ай бұрын
KZbin sure is pushing out more advertisements. Unwatchable.
@adam.taggartАй бұрын
Really? How many ads did it serve you? (I don’t have visibility into this)
@joycekoch5746Ай бұрын
@@adam.taggart Eight during the show.
@michaellalyons5037Ай бұрын
Sooooo for those of us millennials who don’t have well of parents are basically screwed, lovely
@BoBear79Ай бұрын
Adam, appreciate all your work. But you continue to couch every conversation within your own thesis, You only ask leading questions that encourage your guests toward the most bearish outcomes; and when a guest even hints at a non-recessionary view, as Luke did today, you cut off the conversation. Now please know that I've been in that bear foxhole with you for nearly four years; so I'm not opposed to your thesis ultimately being right. In fact, I'm positioned for it! But for the sake of your channel and listeners, please ask short, direct, and open-ended questions and allow us to hear what your guests actually think. We know your position, so it doesnt need to be restated as a lead-in to every question. Honest suggestion here: watch David Westin on Wall Street Week. He's the most effective interviewer out there. Copy his MO and you will have a much more balanced and intellectually believable show. Two cents worth from a loyal follower.
@lawLess-fs1qxАй бұрын
well said.Adam would never have anyone on that thinks we are in the roaring twenties.
@chenchiyuan8674Ай бұрын
I agree. Adam, You only ask leading questions that encourage your guests toward the most bearish outcomes. I watch this interview because it is Luke's talk.
@valerietweedie4376Ай бұрын
I like Adam's style of interviewing. That's why I come to this channel. He has excellent guests who return time after time. If they didn't think he was being even handed, they wouldn't return. Adam is well informed and he wants ordinary people to not be blind sided when this house of cards collapses. Don't forget, everything sounded honkey dorey right before the 2008 2009 financial crisis. We won't have China to bail us out like last time and with our massive debt, the wars, and the derivatives mess, we r primed for a crash.
@edreeves121Ай бұрын
Glad to see he is wising up on bitcoin.
@aleaiactaest8354Ай бұрын
Is it realistic to have a recession with 7% budget deficits?
@georgeandersonАй бұрын
HP12C for the win!
@aklimar2208Ай бұрын
Go Luke!
@kevinspence5093Ай бұрын
Forest for the trees
@thomnicolay3054Ай бұрын
Plenty of liquidity, albeit at higher rates.
@kikaalvesdesouza8429Ай бұрын
Is there any chance of operators going for dollars from emerging markets?