美國歷史學家神預測總統選舉結果！13因素再估特朗普賀錦麗誰會勝選！究竟今次中唔中？《蕭若元：蕭氏新聞台》2024-09-07

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memehongkong

Күн бұрын

Пікірлер: 212

@spendeho3917 Ай бұрын

理智分析各候選人政綱理念，選對的人，做對的事，做個有建設性的選民。絕對不輕信單一KOL評論，一定要多觀察做facts check

@tangrichard1437 Ай бұрын

答D問題時已經答錯 Model 無錯但答案已答錯😂 R kennedy / Tulsi Gabbard 退黨支持對家分裂到出晒面？点True？條問題潛台詞：係問黨內是否团結？候選人黨內是否夠聲望？按字面分柝：死得！佢代表百份之九民主黨；支持咗對面点樣True！不要將學問；按字面生硬地應用😮

@john-e3o Ай бұрын

再加來自埃隆·馬斯克（Elon Musk）和加州參議員、沃爾茲（Walz）家人和其他人的支援。特朗普的吸引力並不狹窄，而且越來越廣。相比之下，哈裡斯的支援率越來越低。它幾乎僅限於受過大學教育的城市女性。

@ronlau4732 Ай бұрын

民主黨並沒有分裂。小肯尼迪轉投共和黨是私慾得不到認同，又沒能力獨立參選，改投特朗普便是敗筆。馬克斯也是。他們兩人改投特朗普，返而會拉低特朗普的支持率。

@brucel7430 Ай бұрын

Tulsi Gabbard 2,3年前已經退黨. RFK Jr退黨係為參選, 而唔係為咗支持對家. 所以民主黨黨內宜家係相當團結. 但共和黨呢? 連Dick Cheney都話俾投Harris, 而且, 更有一大班republicans for Harris既, 共和黨內團結? 睇下DNC大會有幾多共和黨人.

@darshanchung Ай бұрын

1. "分裂到出晒面？点True？" 3rd part key says the 3rd party candidate has to have 10% support or more. 2. "問黨內是否团結" Party contest is a different key. 3. "佢代表百份之九民主黨；" Who are you talking about? RFK? What gave you the idea that he represents 9% of DEMs? 4. "不要將學問；按字面生硬地應用" I don't think you understand the 13 keys. Please read his book or watch his podcasts.

@darshanchung Ай бұрын

@@john-e3o "哈裡斯的支援率越來越低" From when to when is Harris' 支援率越來越低? What is 支援率? Is it different from 支持率?

@helenlee8105 Ай бұрын

人老無得頂

@MikeyUK1987 Ай бұрын

Yes, Allan Lichtman has a very good track record in the US President prediction

@Lucky-tp4mb Ай бұрын

蕭生每次講美大選就堅定支持賀錦麗，越來越無邏輯分析能力了，明眼人都睇到賀錦麗不適合當總統，而且你偶像馬斯克都話民主黨提出的政策都系亂花錢，再比賀錦麗搞多8年，美國就玩完。😅😅

@Lucky-tp4mb Ай бұрын

@@kangkang365 你睇番蕭生之前講大選的片就知道了，他一直幫賀錦麗講好話，一直貶低特朗普。立場好分明，並唔系簡單講邊個會贏。😂

@darshanchung Ай бұрын

@@Lucky-tp4mb 幾時堅定支持賀？亂噏，之前蕭才批評她的經濟政策

@paulchow2142 Ай бұрын

I think Mr. Siu has a secret agenda this time!

@liang9784 Ай бұрын

萧生吾知係老佐还是其他原因，觉得他对美国政治分析有点糊涂😂

@darshanchung Ай бұрын

@@liang9784 試舉例說明之

@waveinthesky Ай бұрын

蕭生，係時候用你教咗我地咁多年critical thinking，就當個歷史家講得啱，但重點係之前都無突然換人選喎，賀錦麗基本係0政積，點可以將拜登d野直接俾賀錦麗，依照歷史家說法，今次應該係拜登贏，唔係賀錦麗！

@john-e3o Ай бұрын

哈裡斯在過去 3 年半里幾乎完全否定了她自己的政策。她還是現任總統嗎？現有優勢是因為政策是好的。但她實際上同意反對者的觀點，他們是一場災難！再加來自埃隆·馬斯克（Elon Musk）和加州參議員、沃爾茲（Walz）家人和其他人的支援。特朗普的吸引力並不狹窄，而且越來越廣。相比之下，哈裡斯的支援率越來越低。它幾乎僅限於受過大學教育的城市女性。

@brucel7430 Ай бұрын

話Harris無政績, 美國歷史上, 有幾多個VP任內係有任何政績? VP有幾大權力, 從來都係睇總統放幾多權. 而美國歷史最大權力VP係Cheney, 第二就係Biden. Harris任內, Biden根本無放權.

@darshanchung Ай бұрын

You don't understand the 13 keys. Only 2 of the keys have to do with the candidates. the others have to do with the governing party.

@symkan1 Ай бұрын

@@darshanchung "Only 2 of the keys have to do with the candidates." This is the major defect of the model because most voters vote for Trump or NOT Trump.

@darshanchung Ай бұрын

@@symkan1 but you can say the same thing about every presidential candidate. If the keys are defective, it would not have successfully predicted the last 10 elections, 2 of which also involved Trump.

@daobian Ай бұрын

This historian has done perfect study and held a good track record.

@lsman38 Ай бұрын

He called Obama reelection of 2012 in 2010. Because his keys already fulfilled

@john-e3o Ай бұрын

Litchman is a liar big time. He is right and the polls were right also, except once in 2016. But not all polls was wrong even then. He lies in saying that the polls are wrong all the time and he is right every time. That is despicable. As they say, even the broken clock is right twice a day.

@kilroy2438 Ай бұрын

IN GOD WE TRUST ! GOD BLESS MR DONALD TRUMP !

@paktinlam Ай бұрын

Your God has pretty low standards if he picks Trump!

@kilroy2438 Ай бұрын

@@paktinlam YOUR GOD HAS LOW STANDARD WHEN HE CREATES YOU AND YOUR BELOVED LEADER XI JINGPING !

@paktinlam Ай бұрын

@@kilroy2438 Bad news for you, Trump admires dictator, like Putin and Kim. He wants to be one. I am sure Trump doesn't mind being Xi if he can be a dictator like Xi. Your enemy's enemy may not be your alliance!

@paktinlam Ай бұрын

@@kilroy2438 Also, I don't believe in any God!

@ronlau4732 Ай бұрын

@@kilroy2438 will God bless a sinful man?

@lsman38 Ай бұрын

如果你讀他在Washingtonian 網站的文章，他說近兩年民調反而低估民主黨的票，因為幾年前低估共和黨的票的反結果。

@mandywong2154 Ай бұрын

Thank you 🙏🏻 😮

@kowkwahchan Ай бұрын

估吓開鑼日三T邊九隻馬跑出好過

@lsman38 Ай бұрын

I think my post is not there... Anything you said you want to post link but didn't... You can go to new York times and search, the video is just one day old, all the cap screen are from nyt video

@ntonyworkshop Ай бұрын

邊個講都唔緊要。最緊要蕭生講賀錦麗贏硬，兼打死都撐賀錦麗，咁就多謝蕭生喇！拯救萬民。功德無量！功德無量！

@wonhughsing3407 Ай бұрын

灯死贺锦丽？😂😂😂

@binghangchiu7892 Ай бұрын

如果賀赢即係美國步入靈性與經濟死亡的先兆

@darshanchung Ай бұрын

關靈性事？

@ronlau4732 Ай бұрын

@@binghangchiu7892 美國總統團隊都是精英，總統只要奉行民主而不是獨裁，國運將昌隆興盛。

@MrBravoamigo Ай бұрын

Mr. Siu. You always choose the factors or forecast in favour of Harris. This is your belief! Your inclination toward Harris! Pathetic.

@waiyip8092 Ай бұрын

你今次唔選川普？你輸硬啦！😂

@pingcheung4562 Ай бұрын

Thank you 😊

@memehongkong Ай бұрын

You're welcome 😊

@灶拜王子 Ай бұрын

support

@cardcandyangel6114 Ай бұрын

+流水

@look2young Ай бұрын

D 題目有冇計埋D負面嘢，如阿富汗撤軍大蝦碌，留底幾多軍火俾對家?有冇問吓政績係零又點計算?電腦出猫又如何?

@antonychin7348 Ай бұрын

近年來，許多美國選民，特別是一些傳統上支持民主黨的選民，開始轉向支持特朗普。這種現象部分是由於對民主黨政策的不滿以及特朗普所代表的反建制立場吸引了這些選民。據說，許多選民的轉變並不僅僅是基於對特朗普的支持，而是對現狀的不滿，這使得選舉結果變得更加難以預測。此外，特朗普的支持者群體中也出現了許多來自不同背景的選民，包括一些曾經支持民主黨的人。這種情況使得即使是Lichtman的模型也可能面臨挑戰，因為選民的行為和情感在當前的政治氣候中變得更加複雜和多變。總的來說，雖然Lichtman的預測模型在過去的選舉中表現出色，但在當前的政治環境中，選舉結果仍然充滿不確定性，特別是考慮到選民的轉變和社會動盪的影響。這使得即使是最有經驗的預測者也難以準確預測未來的選舉結果。

@ncchiu7848 Ай бұрын

怕什麼 , 己印好大量假票啦 , 剛剛傾掂數你睇唔到咩

@PeterWong-hl8ee Ай бұрын

撞彩

@mangotv888 Ай бұрын

撞彩每次中😂

@吳知道-u8h Ай бұрын

你講完佢就書。

@pingcheung4562 Ай бұрын

I believe and hope Trump will win 😊

@YoLi-l8e Ай бұрын

最決定性的因素是投票機由民主黨操控，其他的都是鬼話

@paktinlam Ай бұрын

@@YoLi-l8e if I can't win, they must be cheating! Think about it, what kind of logic is that! Trump puts our democracy in danger! He wants to be Xi, Putin or Kim!

@andrewleung2259 Ай бұрын

如果民主黨可以控制投票機，你共和黨仲選乜鳩？返去訓覺好過啦

@chanceli Ай бұрын

幾聰明

@jontsang7334 Ай бұрын

Scott Adams (the creator of Dilbert) commented in his 9/6th/24 podcast on the same information. He did it with the perspective of a data savvy professional.

@cananfisek5203 Ай бұрын

不喜欢贺

@raymondlam1342 Ай бұрын

多謝燈神！

@特李-i7y Ай бұрын

睇好特朗普贏

@ritayuen5007 Ай бұрын

蕭生，歷史學家都係以正常狀態推算，做法似蕭生推算，但而家世事變化萬千唔合常理，所以有時蕭生估計難免有偏差，唔係話支持Trump 一定話佢唔啱，支持Trump 嘅人係講得出Trump 應該當選嘅理由，反觀賀錦麗有乜嘢政策與拜登奧巴馬不同？佢哋除咗外交與各國關係好啲，國內一塌糊塗係事實，再咁落去美國冇得救，Trump 同Elon Musk相信都睇到呢啲太左嘅做法，繼續落去會損害美國，佢哋唔計酬勞都想將情況扭過嚟，佢哋係愛國，只要美國强大正常才可以發揮領導世界，而Trump第一屆當選就係美國人都想改變當時民主黨嘅執政，而家嘅狀況一樣，只有Trump 能夠改變現狀，而且佢第二屆當選有更多志同道合，處事更成熟，美國人應該睇到架！

@dogtimmy6913 Ай бұрын

要解決美國國內問題根本無可能美國人的國家問題臂如債項太高種族之類只有拖下去世界霸主地位才重要所以总統必須要維持解決國外問題而不是能夠解決內部問題因為解決唔到

@FrostW1nd Ай бұрын

How is foreign policy failure neutral? What about Afghanistan? Also how about immigration?

@ronlau4732 Ай бұрын

@@FrostW1nd 阿富汗是爛泥扶唔上壁。移民問題是人道主義，甄選成為合格移民是有規限的。

@ronlau4732 Ай бұрын

@@FrostW1ndI am a Republican yet I’ll vote Harris.

@FrostW1nd Ай бұрын

@@ronlau4732 I'm sorry but I missed the part where I'm supposed to care

@ronlau4732 Ай бұрын

@@FrostW1nd United States pursues human rights, freedom and democracy. It has a strict constitutional system, and the separation of power. It also accepts many elites and hard-working immigrants from around the world every year. It has an outstanding administrative team that performs its duties, All that make the country rich and powerful. This is the consensus of the world. The president is the supreme commander, but his term is limited and subject to the supervision of the people. Therefore, choosing the president of the United States is mainly about listening to his words and watching his actions. Someone with a noble personality and the ability to unite people at home and abroad is the best choice.

@martinlee392 Ай бұрын

但如果是拜登選連任，又係攞到8個trues，唔通會係拜登贏嗎？

@lifanpan Ай бұрын

唔是老萧，历史学家只是总结过去，给出一套解释，好似不会预测未来的吧

@cheehongchu3430 Ай бұрын

Donald trump 🧐🥇

@calendarclassmate Ай бұрын

根據蕭生從來的看法，社會科學除了經濟學都是偽科學，所以這個模型當茶餘飯後話題笑笑就好。

@InBloomHK Ай бұрын

問題無錯，但它的分析超錯！其實它可以得到什麼好處呢？

@ylChan-h5i Ай бұрын

個研究無計癲特中槍不死，天選之人這因素？😅

@darshanchung Ай бұрын

@@ylChan-h5i 這不是13keys之內，也不重要，好明顯一個月後已經沒有人提

@ylChan-h5i Ай бұрын

@@darshanchung 美國係崇拜英雄主義國家，現在不提，並不代表癲特競選時不提，可能交由忠粉提起，勾起美國人英雄澎湃情緒。我覺蝦你輸只識傻笑，不要以為女性形像有助其大選，其實女性心理上一般較小器，不希望同性者優秀過自己，故不選擇蝦你輸做美國最高權力者，毫不出奇？😇

@darshanchung Ай бұрын

@@ylChan-h5i 這跟13keys毫無關係，你喜歡trump希望他贏，和有一套科學化的理論作預測是兩碼子事

@ylChan-h5i Ай бұрын

@@darshanchung呢啲所謂特定問題，表面同掌相分析差不多，將過往例子歸納一些定律下判斷，與科學性分析完全兩回事，因政治屬社會科學，變數大多嘞，我覺同賭莊閒差不多，勢均力敵時唔會捉到路。例如蝦你輸在辯論中若無甚焦點，或巴巴結結已影響其選情。不要忘記，她是在加州一旦歹徒搶劫九百美元以下刑案，警察係毋須出動處理之推手，搞到當地治安更敗壞，美國人正常會有戒心。😄

@darshanchung Ай бұрын

@@ylChan-h5i 估十次都估中的機會是10億份之一，科學是什麼？就是objective, replicable. 這方法符合以上兩點

@蒙面超人-h8s Ай бұрын

支持特朗普！！！！！

@steventsang2818 Ай бұрын

佢個套問答是否只適用連任參選嘅總統呢？副總統無咩做野😂

@darren654 Ай бұрын

Support

@maikure Ай бұрын

I also told my friends Donald Trump will win back in 2016 and they said I was stupid but I was right!!

@JackJack-pt6sv Ай бұрын

白兵聽到一定開心死😂

@john-e3o Ай бұрын

通貨膨脹是一種稅。這是對低收入人群的更大稅收。到目前為止，通貨膨脹率為 20%。這意味著低收入人群每年要繳納 20% 的稅。這真的很傷人。此外。拜登通過取消信用卡和其他消費貸款的利息成本來降低實際通貨膨脹率。所以窮人的實際通貨膨脹率超過20%。他錯誤地誇大了近100萬的就業人數。加在一起，您已經在 60-80% 的經濟中出現了衰退。這是許多銀行家和投資者都同意的。你是愚蠢還是非常愚蠢？

@jcklam2001 Ай бұрын

個老嘢Professor話用咗13個Keys。但佢忘記第14個先係最重要。第14個就係true data。你分析來分析去都係用左派假數據，你估你贏硬咩？今次就要你輸到騰騰震。因為我肯定投Donald Trump😊

@darshanchung Ай бұрын

例如什麼假數據？

@laserdrill2023 Ай бұрын

我对预测谁胜没意见，当投资银行请天体物理学家用微积分来计算股市模形，AI 用上亿模形参数学习。历史学家用幾十个正反选择题就预测？而且数据的答案，全部都是主觀答案，自问自答。例如民主党有否分裂，登哥被迫退选也不算分裂？现在经济好不好？我不知道，应该由美国市民回答，但估计中部農民和矽谷员工答案不同。

@darshanchung Ай бұрын

@@laserdrill2023 No they are not subjective. The contest key is based on whether there is a party contest to select the candidate. Economic keys are based on real per capita growth and whether the economy is in recession, which is two consecutive quarters of negative growth.

@darshanchung Ай бұрын

@@laserdrill2023 you just criticized Lichtman for being subjective. You then used a subjective criteria: 「應由選民回答經濟好不好」to determine the economic performance. Your argument doesn’t make sense.

@jcklam2001 Ай бұрын

@@darshanchung 那例如有什麼客觀的真數據可用呀，kenny boy。

@cychan3602 Ай бұрын

多謝蕭生衝出嚟登一登Harris

@leanderrowe2800 Ай бұрын

民調是問四年前投過票嘅人, 新一班 18-21 歲選民中凡有讀過大學有知識有頭腦的年青人, 會去投一個大話連天和不斷地用不尊重的語言去悔辱別人嘅候選人嗎？

@VH-no6cx Ай бұрын

侵侵話要台灣交保護費，得罪咗老蕭😂

@danielwong0131 Ай бұрын

其實上一屆已經估錯左啦

@cynthia587 Ай бұрын

我不讃同 short term and long term economy ,和 social unrest.

@darshanchung Ай бұрын

@@cynthia587 點唔贊同法？唔贊同乜嘢？

@yuenfu7173 Ай бұрын

嘥氣，個國家分裂成咁，一個問題已得，你會唔會選Trump已ok

@maikure Ай бұрын

But RFK's supporters will likely to vote for Trump because he has endorsed Trump, you gotta put that in mind as well. Let's say about 3 to 5% of voters were gonna vote for RFK and 80 to 85% will then vote for Trump now, this swing alone would change the result of a close race which it is now.

@peterc11364 Ай бұрын

He underestimated the power of social media.

@darshanchung Ай бұрын

@@peterc11364 who did?

@Bumblebeebutterfly Ай бұрын

Go, Harris, go, go!🎉🎊🇺🇸

@lilylei2110 Ай бұрын

两次预判结果对。这次他的预言一定是错误的。

@darshanchung Ай бұрын

@@lilylei2110 why?

@lilylei2110 Ай бұрын

@@darshanchung people need more research

@Sundaynight69 Ай бұрын

每次造馬都跟佢是非題去做就冇違和勝選😅

@unitedkingdom2675 Ай бұрын

離心獨劈！反離心獨劈！希拉莉本來好 Sophisticated , 最後邊變左 Rage 可能對住Trump, 一物治一物, 希拉莉鬼影旋風球走火入魔

@tangrichard1437 Ай бұрын

短期經濟係 False 嘅失業率和衰退捱唔到選舉已經急速轉差睇埋九月中急減0.5厘就知失業是大落後指標；發生了至少半年過往兩三年通脹急攀升！人心思變；所以賀選唔到的

@darshanchung Ай бұрын

Short term economy key says that “the economy is not in recession “ during the election campaign. It is already September, to be in recession, USA needs to have 2 quarters of negative growth. There is not enough time to declare a recession. Therefore the key is true.

@tangrichard1437 Ай бұрын

双季轉負係經濟學定義選民話之你一季轉差選舉前無工做就投對家架喇千萬別讀死書！更何况捱咗兩三年高通脹 Cpi 升九巴仙你買排雞蛋俾多三五成選民就信你都傻嘅😂😂😂

@darshanchung Ай бұрын

@@tangrichard1437 the definition of the keys is two consecutive quarters of negative growth. You don’t need to believe the keys, but you can’t change the definition on your own.

@darshanchung Ай бұрын

@@tangrichard1437 the long term economic key says real per capita economic growth, which is growth minus inflation, and there has been real economic growth during Biden’s term.

@darshanchung Ай бұрын

@@tangrichard1437 long term economic key is real per capita growth, which means gdp growth minus inflation.

@auhung2000 Ай бұрын

賀錦麗當選? 美國自求多福喇!

@tongleo7118 Ай бұрын

話Trump無charisma好荒謬，太主觀性，呢個system唔work

@LeeJeff-gx2dw Ай бұрын

你听我預測更准

@binghangchiu7892 Ай бұрын

國之將亡，必有妖孽

@ronlau4732 Ай бұрын

@@binghangchiu7892 美国仍是全球霸主，將亡的會是中、俄、朝、伊四國。

@simonleung2130 Ай бұрын

Anyone but Donal Trump

@InBloomHK Ай бұрын

完來咗膠大機器開動時，見到有人是機器的一部分

@Lienhuong0118 Ай бұрын

川普让三球，买定离手。

@yangmiemie8 Ай бұрын

🙏👍

@papa27211 Ай бұрын

我只信 Elon Musk

@leanderrowe2800 Ай бұрын

Musk and Trump are birds of the same feather. They both don't give a damn about anything or anyone except themselves ! Their own interest before you ! Their own interest before America ! Their own interest before the world !

@kehat_c Ай бұрын

Trump阻烏克蘭軍援、又搞到台積電股價大跌，佢未上台外交政策已經完全失敗

@leanderrowe2800 Ай бұрын

Agreed

@lucycoupon7309 Ай бұрын

The facts: 請各位睇睇民主黨佔據的州，經濟衰到極點，無家可歸者/露宿的帳幕處處是，搶劫$950以下無需付刑責，企業都紛紛遷出民主黨的州⋯⋯ classic example, California變成點樣？！ American vote for their future, NOT vote for specific color nationality. ❤

@Idk-zb1zy Ай бұрын

你知唔知道你喺度講緊乜嘢？

@john-e3o Ай бұрын

哈裡斯在過去 3 年半里幾乎完全否定了她自己的政策。她還是現任總統嗎？現有優勢是因為政策是好的。但她實際上同意反對者的觀點，他是一場災難！再加來自埃隆·馬斯克（Elon Musk）和加州參議員、沃爾茲（Walz）家人和其他人的支援。特朗普的吸引力並不狹窄，而且越來越廣。相比之下，哈裡斯的支援率越來越低。它幾乎僅限於受過大學教育的城市女性。

@brucel7430 Ай бұрын

無論邊個民讞, 都顯示Harris支持度係升緊, 升到頂未就未知, 但講佢支持度越來越低, 根本就無根據.

@yochihk19 Ай бұрын

你是否想話Vance而不是Walz?

@Michael852 Ай бұрын

Tump 上次失敗影響香港很大,今次冇所謂

@joeyu8793 Ай бұрын

**2020年：**预测拜登获胜（正确） **2016年：**预测希拉里获胜（错误） **2012年：**预测奥巴马获胜（正确） **2008年：**预测奥巴马获胜（正确） **2004年：**预测布什获胜（正确） **2000年：**预测戈尔赢得普选票（正确） **1996年：**预测克林顿获胜（正确） **1992年：**预测克林顿获胜（正确） **1988年：**预测布什获胜（正确） **1984年：**预测里根获胜（正确）

@darshanchung Ай бұрын

Lichtman did not predict a Hiliary win in ‘16, he predicted Trump would win.

@Islandboy-ue1gi Ай бұрын

的確，Lichtman 的預測並不總是準確的。他在 2000 年大選中預測戈爾（Al Gore）獲勝，而不是最終的獲勝者喬治布殊（George W. Bush）。

@darshanchung Ай бұрын

@@Islandboy-ue1gi but 2000 was a stolen election. Gore did win the popular vote and would have won if Florida recounted. Recounts conducted after the election showed gore ahead by tens of thousands of votes in Florida

@darshanchung Ай бұрын

@@Islandboy-ue1gi even if we discount 2000, he was still right 9 out of 10. If you can do better, publish your own predictions.

@Islandboy-ue1gi Ай бұрын

@@darshanchung 他只是作出預測, 又不是說預言, 更沒有百分百保證。純粹是聽眾對他的期望有多大而已, 所謂「認真便輸了」。

@sunc1668 Ай бұрын

特朗普應該會贏、賀錦麗沒什麼政績。

@lsman38 Ай бұрын

Trump 四年政府經驗，2016時，是上任前唯一零經驗的總統。Harris 政府經驗廿幾年了。如果加上副總統，JD 只有兩年政府經濟，同Walkz 更加冇得比

@leanderrowe2800 Ай бұрын

Dick Cheney 話共和黨和 Donald Trump 自己都知道係輸了大選

@cruisip9722 Ай бұрын

相信大部分黄嘅都會支持Trump , 但係上次民主黨都可以有咁大勢力做票, trump執政嘅都唔夠佢嚟，而家在嘢點會夠民主黨嚟？何錦麗未話選嘅時候，我都覺得民主黨唔會輸

@mikeyu221 Ай бұрын

想燈死賀嬸😅

@polarbear9404 Ай бұрын

Whoever reaches 270 electoral first wins. I predict Trump will pick up more than 300. End of discussion 😂

@JasonPunHK Ай бұрын

蕭生明明之前話賀錦麗會贏㗎，依家又話要睇9月10日

@jcklam2001 Ай бұрын

蕭山話咗賀錦麗睇高一線啦，你自己心照啦。

@沈兆康 Ай бұрын

美國咁左，賀錦麗赢面系大啲嘅

@leanderrowe2800 Ай бұрын

Jeff Duncan, a former Republican governor of Georgia said that voting for Kamala Harris doesn't make you a Democrat. It makes you a patriot.

@melt5ere Ай бұрын

Donal Trump果張型到仆街既相依然響腦海入面瀝瀝在目魅力點會係true

@darshanchung Ай бұрын

@@melt5ere because charisma has to have bipartisan recognition

@leanderrowe2800 Ай бұрын

如果你有睇 professor Lichtman 個片, 他解釋魅力係要大部份人都認同, 不是只係一班擁躉, 做得粉絲就當然覺得自己偶像有魅力啦歷史中只有 Roosevelt, Kennedy, Reagan and Obama

@paktinlam Ай бұрын

Anyone but trump!

@LorentiChau-db3cb Ай бұрын

Depend on what the majority are expecting . If they want the economy will be improved , people would choice Trump instead . Oppositely , if people don’t want to have an unpredictable person who’s in charge and become the president , then Harris would have a better chance . I like to see how Trump would handle the war between Ukraine and Russia subject to his manifesto. Furthermore , how he would settle the issue between Israel and Iran as well as all conflicts in South China Sea with China , Taiwan issue in particular.

@leanderrowe2800 Ай бұрын

Dick Cheney, a former Vice President who is most Republican and most conservative, announced that he is going to vote for Kamala Harris. He said publicly, " There has never been an individual in history who is a greater threat to our democracy than Donald Trump."