Macro Outlook Q1 2024 w/ Luke Gromen (BTC172)

Luke Gromen provides a macro overview: Discussing Berkshire's cash stash, a 2023 market pivot, US liquidity, real estate woes, inflation, unemployment, rate outlooks, Bitcoin's energy role, FED's control limits, CEO stock sales, Bitcoin's fiscal potential, auction impacts, QE prospects, and market dynamics.
IN THIS EPISODE, YOU’LL LEARN:
00:00:00 - Intro
00:00:43 - How Berkshire Hathaway's substantial cash reserve positions it in the current economic landscape.
00:11:28 - Predictions on unemployment trends and their impact on the broader economic recovery.
00:13:25 - Insights into the escalating crisis in commercial real estate loans surpassing loss reserves at major banks.
00:16:00 - The implications of re-accelerating supercore inflation on the economy and monetary policy.
00:33:43 - The pivotal factors that flipped Luke Gromen from a bearish to a bullish market stance in early 2023.
00:37:35 - The specific liquidity levers the US is currently pulling to navigate through economic challenges.
00:56:47 - How interest rates are expected to evolve through the rest of the year and their effect on investments.
01:11:08 - The transformative potential of Bitcoin in changing the energy landscape and its broader economic implications.
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[@PrestonPysh]

📌 Check out this video next: kzbin.info/www/bejne/eIrOYnyaZ89qlZo ⚠ IMPORTANT: Please beware of cyber scams and phishing attacks. We will never ask for your contact info in the comments section. Kindly report suspicious accounts you see below. Thank you!

[@user-rg7sg6kp1p]

Did Luke mean to say mid year when the rate CUTS don't come?

[@tomithy6047]

Listened to this 3 times now. Gromen's analysis is near oracle level.

[@robertcoyte3243]

Highly recommend subscription to his service its really good.

[@BTCNSDAP]

He’s a smart guy, why is he still messing with boomer rocks

[@robertcoyte3243]

@@BTCNSDAPbecause he is a smart guy not an ideologue

[@golftownpro999]

@@BTCNSDAPmaybe that should tell you something BTC dap

[@williamharris7849]

@@BTCNSDAP because he thinks there's non-zero chance oil gets priced in gold. If that happens, the price of gold ain't what you think it is.

[@ysareyes]

Financial planning is like navigation. If you know where you are and where you want to go, navigation isn't such a great problem. It's when you don't know the two points that it's difficult

[@kabengele-vo4dr]

People dont understand that the prices of things are never going back down. This inflation is deeper than we think. Those buying groceries are well aware that the real inflation is much over 10%. The increments dont match our income, yet certain investors still earn over $365,000 in stocks and assets. Wish I could accomplish that.

[@ZoltanKen]

Very possible! especially at this moment. Profits can be made in many different ways, but such intricate transactions should only be handled by seasoned market professionals.

[@alasdekarton]

Having an investment advisor is the best way to go about the stock market right now. I was going solo, but it wasn't working. I've been in touch with an advisor for a while now, and just last year, I made over 80% capital growth minus dividends.

[@datguy82]

Finding yourself a good broker is as same as finding a good wife, which you go less stress, you get just enough with so much little effort at things

[@MianHussnain-tu1wi]

Sounds interesting. I was planning to invest some few £ in some coins, stack them up and leave them for a few years, but seeing this changed my mindset. Thank you very much

[@bigbonanza6385]

I definitely enjoy when Luke comes on the show. Always informative

[@BarbaraBrown21103]

I will be forever grateful to you, you changed my entire life and I will continue to preach on your behalf for the whole world to hear you saved me from huge financial debt with just a small investment, thank you Victoria Wiezorek.

[@GeoffMarshall32]

Wow. I'm a bit perplexed seeing her been mentioned here also Didn’t know she has been good to so many people too this is wonderful, I'm in my fifth trade with her and it has been super.

[@HaddonRobinson2]

Really you people know her? I was even thinking that I'm the only one she has helped walk through the fears and falls of trading.

[@AdrianRogers20]

I'm new at this, please how can I reach her?

[@BarbaraBrown21103]

SHE'S MOSTLY ON TELEGRAMS, USING THE USERNAME

[@BarbaraBrown21103]

@WIEZOREK105 💯 ..that's it

[@MacroAnarchy]

Luke is my favorite analyst right now, can’t wait to see how it all plays out. So far he seems to be spot on.👏

[@modelmark]

Luke Gromen => priority listen

[@thereformedfinancialadvisor]

I pulled up the 1984 Berkshire letter and it doesn't seem to address the advantage of intangible assets (brands) during high inflation, as Pysh suggests. Anyone know which letter he's actually referring to?

[@TheRealDerekS]

My financial advisor doesnt understand any of this (he basically manages a few retirement accounts for the family) although I've been very successful orange pilling him over the last three years he still fails to recognize the risk in the treasury layer. I just feel like all these guys are marching along basically acting like followers. It makes me sad. Soon, they will all be travel agents

[@budgetingstrategies6240]

I'm sad for people who listen to these bad advisors. Me, I believe I'm right and nobody listens to me lol. Go figure.

[@TheRealDerekS]

@@budgetingstrategies6240 hahaha I agree, I do the same thing!

[@clint9470]

He needs to be fired

[@trevorm9551]

It’s funny how much literally nobody cares

[@TeslaFTWin]

Let’s hope he’s unemployed soon.

[@Dashiki7467]

I understood literally like 12% of what he said, but this was possibly the most interesting conversation I’ve ever heard….. Any books or recommended reading that could help me understand more of these economic concepts?

[@willybolt6397]

Wait for these every week as my morning podcast

[@obgdolphin]

This is one of my top three places to go for helping the investment decision process. Hands down. Thanks.

[@b_tang]

Love Luke Gromen

[@bootcamptrader]

It’s interesting that 8 weeks ago we were talking about whether 7 rate cuts this year was realistic and now actually having conversations about rates going higher again.

[@JayD1001]

Cant thank you enough for the knowledge im getting from you and your guests. Glad I stumbled upon your channel Preston!

[@MadWaloo]

Great interview! Luke’s arguments make a lot of sense.

[@SpykerSpeed]

Two of my favorite macro analysts!

[@vitalitymirth]

Thank you for the observations

[@clint9470]

Luke talking about the 500lb guy on the morphine at 1:01:30 had me in stitches

[@bennysats6076]

Let him press the button until he dies... morbid

[@asafgr]

thanks, you both are great!

[@reggieD100]

Excellent fucking episode, learned a ton during this one.

[@jingmu1289]

Great episode! Very well said! And it is likely to happen.

[@Zoofactory]

The guy in Cleveland HAS figured this out. ❤

[@BatmanBoss]

Thanks

[@boiserad]

Assistance for a layman, please. Can someone explain Luke’s comment “ long term treasuries take off like a scalded cat”. Thank you ahead of time. I love this podcast and have learned so much over the 3 years after finally finding it. Thank you Preston.

[@JZblue90]

take off like a scalded cat, here I believe Luke is talking about the yield. yield goes up, value goes down, so TLT = sucker

[@gerardlenihan2601]

Smart guy, Luke G

[@BlockHarvest]

What we are being told and how we are experiencing life are two very different things. Inflation is running rampant.

[@John-wf5if]

It's either inflation or default. They only have 2 choices. They ARE going to inflate the debt problem away.

[@johnhackney180]

Inflation IS default. The 2 choices are between 2 methods [restructuring/implosion of treasury market -or- inflating/negative real rates] of default.

[@adam3us]

Bitcoin is on its way to breaking records, getting closer to hitting new high prices, showing that it's gaining more value and could go even higher than we've seen before. This could mean great things for people looking to invest, suggesting now might be a good time to get involved before it jumps even higher. It's an exciting moment that could change the game in general...managed to grow a nest egg of around 2.3B'tc to a decent 27B'tc....At the heart of this evolution is Francine Duguay, whose deep understanding of both cryptocurrency and traditional trading has been instrumental. Her holistic approach to investment and commitment to staying abreast of market trends make her an invaluable ally in navigating this new era in cryptocurrency investment.

[@adam3us]

She often interacts on Telegrams, using the user-name...

[@adam3us]

@FrancineDuguay .

[@alpergroups]

She appears to be well-educated and well-read. I ran a Google search on her name and came across her website; thank you for sharing....

[@Sparsh987]

Crypto role as a store of value and its potential for future growth make it an attractive investment option. trading can be a thrilling way to participate in this digital asset's journey.

[@CASSIExCBoBABE]

It doesn't matter if you are a current hodler or a newbie, you can capitalize on the fluctuation of bitcoin by trading with good strategy/signals..

[@langa1533]

I am heeeeere!!!!! Let's go

[@thestonemaster81]

Boy, what a slap of reality. The deficit they’re spending ability the value of cash.

[@golftownpro999]

TLDR: This time is actually different 🤯

[@sivi9741]

Maybe the U.S. approved bitcoin etf because they rather see competition from unbiased political bitcoin currency instead of bricks currency ?

[@shaynebernard]

Where are the boyz

[@Cr4y7-AegisInquisitor]

Cute

[@antpoo]

Inflation never stopped.

[@sunshinegasoline]

luke's one of those guys i feel is just trying to speak truth to what is happening rather than present some narrative in service to an asset or world view

[@sethbracken]

Preston, embrace yore Yinzer heritage and pronounce “Mario” the way Myron Cope intended: MARE-io not mah-RI-o

[@tacocruiser4238]

If the dollar is gong down, then why are so many insiders selling stocks and hoarding cash?

[@modelmark]

Quick blownup the everything but gold bubble, so the gold etf runs empty and the Chinese can buy the gold they were promised

[@langa1533]

Luke really should get a good mic 🎙️ now 😮. He is the most sort after guest in macro, he also runs a FFTT podcast

[@soundsnags2001]

The mic is fine. Stop bitching at other people and go build something.

[@ryansgr8]

💵🖨️🥶

[@user-ol7tl1vf5m]

Is inflation on the rise again? Does a bear chit in the woods?

[@nopemerry7410]

Pereston I think the alogs are against you I have just had to resubscribe to your channel and I never miss one of your shows. 🖕KZbin

[@CoreyChambersLA]

Fire any asset manager or investment advisor who did not push for at least 2% of assets in bitcoin.

[@lightweb3281]

You can't settle in Bitcoin. BTC does not scale. Lightning Network doesn't work without centralized watch towers, and has failed to take off because it defeats the purpose of Bitcoin.

[@masoudramezannezhad5777]

then you should buy solana ,and bitcoin is not here to pay for our coffe

[@SteveJobs-uu1rk]

[@AAElvis]

Mr Tan Hicks is known for his impressive contribution in the crypto space...

[@Johnson960]

Ever since I started following his strategies, my trading game has elevated to new heights. Truly a mastermind in the trading world..

[@user-gw7ps3gt6p]

Sincerely speaking. I will continue to trade and stick to Hicks daily signals and guides as long as it works well for me.

[@SteveJobs-uu1rk]

He's mostly on Telegrams, using the user name.

[@SteveJobs-uu1rk]

Tanhicks6 💯 ..that's it