Macron's geopolitical stir: the good, the bad and the ugly

In this episode, Alex Stubb reflects on Emmanuel Macron's recent comments about EU strategic autonomy and relationships with the United States and China. Alex divides his analysis up in three points: the good, the bad and the ugly about Macron's statements.
OUTLINE
0:00 - Introduction
2:20 - The good
4:05 - The bad
09:15 - The ugly
#Macron #EU #China #US #geopolitics #strategicautonomy
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[@unebrindille472]

As a French woman, I am dumbfounded by Macron. I totally approve of his will to put diplomacy first and am flabbergasted by his total lack of said diplomacy. It boggles the mind 😮

[@matsfrommusic]

Thank you!

[@joshthalheimer]

It does. My mind is boggled.

[@jennyfromtheblock.7153]

The worst part for me is that I don’t think he is even fully aware of how silly he appeared playing into the hands of what appeared to be a much smarter China/Russia. It looked like he was out of his Lea being played that way.

[@CollectiveWesterner]

Well said, Une Brindille, well said.

[@2KSnSLifestyle]

Stop killing Europeans in Ukraine.

[@giovannibez9509]

Kudos to your ability to synthesize, in 14 minutes you have explained pretty complex stuff in a very clear way.

[@al1234]

This reminds me of the meme of Macron... Where he looking sad and frustrated and the caption say "when you can't surrender unconditionally cause it's not your country".

[@JoanneLeon]

One of the most important goals of the Russia-China alliance is to fracture the Europe-UK-US alliance and we can clearly see who is the primary assistant. In that sense, I'm very glad that Macron’s visit was so public and obvious. All you have to do is review a little French history to see why he's doing this. And some current history with their Total energy co. Plus the constant drive to dominate Europe in competition with Germany which Europeans understand better than anyone else.

[@angelmario7085]

After WWII i can't take France seriously🤡!

[@henriknordlund5568]

They already have manage to fracture Europe by separating UK politically and economically from continental Europe. Although that stunt was in part a Russian ploy and it mainly hurt the UK by reducing into a third rate power - China had nothing to do with it. The Chinese are playing a smarter and more long game in these matters than Russia. France is seen with some suspicion in Poland et al though, but that has more to do with France being seen as not completely trustworthy. France seing itself as a "big country", and not fully behind the EU, playing its own game and that sort of thing. As noted by others France like to push for "more autonomy" historically, but since France never wanted to pool souvereignity in these kinds of affairs that push is really testiment of turning Europe into a French empire. And so it goes...

[@christianleblanc2842]

@@angelmario7085 Arguably not since 1870, although in Macron's case it makes no difference.

[@DrChe2025]

The most important goal of the UK-US alliance is to keep Europe a vasal and prevent the Russia-China alliance and not ar least "BRICS and friends" Who is the good one? Western democracy is no religion. It is arrogant to postulate that "we" are the solution. "We" are no longer the good ones.

[@unebrindille472]

I don't know any of your country but I'm pretty sure I could slander in 10 MN flat if I did

[@WonderMagician]

Macron's self-promotion is juvenile and embarrassing. His complete disregard for the threat posed by Russia and China to the Western economic and security architecture is stunning.

[@jasc4364]

Unfortunately this is not the case for Macron alone but also for many French people.

[@martinschneider7130]

I am still glad, that in 1914 the Helicopter Carriers we're Not handed Out to russia. The russian Navy was yet in Brest. And I am astonished, that Military headupdisplays we're dilivered Til 24.02.2022 to russia (Air ET Cosmos, Xavier Tytelman)

[@martinschneider7130]

2014, Not 1914

[@Halli50]

Alex Stubb is both Finnish AND knowledgeable. In my experience, when a Finn starts talking, it is wise to pause and listen. Finns rarely talk unless they have something meaningful to contribute, and they are the epitome of "straight talkers". They are basically up front and honest. If they have an agenda to push, they usually tell you about it as well. You don't have to agree to or what Alex is saying, but you can bet his points will have merit.

[@LeSatan]

I appreciate your words as a Finn.

[@randyrobey5643]

So it would seem.

[@ukr6392]

“The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing.”

[@sffg9671]

first strategic unity, then strategic autonomy. Otherwise you get strategic cacophony and strategic nonsense - well said. Thanks Mr Stubb.

[@mikesheffer3690]

I’m an American. I am a taxpaying American. I grew up in the Cold War when, regarding Europe, we were all in. My country, my family, my friends - we were all in. It became a welcome habit of mind to think of Europe as steadfast allies. When Trump attacked NATO - when he did anything and everything at all, actually - I was appalled. I’m of Swedish, German and Welsh descent. Happy to be so. “The United States is spending 30 times the amount that France is spending on the defense of Ukraine, and basically Macron is saying ‘we shouldn’t help the Americans out on Taiwan but that America should help us out on Ukraine.’” Yeah… That’s what I think, too… Basically, Macron told me to go blank myself. And for the first time ever in the 37 years I’ve had to endure Trump’s presence in the cultural life of my country - the first and only time! - I thought, ‘Trump’s right.’

[@hungrymusicwolf]

Sometimes the jerk has a point, to not let your dislike of them get in the way of that realization is an important part of democratic cultures, or at least it was.

[@seanlander9321]

Keep in mind that the French despise America. They have refused to repay a penny of the loans that Americans made to them during and after WWI and its over a trillion owed.

[@paspa]

If the US didn’t overlook the work of France and Germany, building the Minsk agreements, we wouldn’t have this war in Ukraine. But, then again, the US wouldn’t have control of the EU’s gas market as it is, nor the trillions in weapons sold all over the globe, would it? In my case, I wouldn’t have to support the increase of my mortgage nor the overall increase of the cost of living. Well, I guess it’s democracy… I am happy, because I already bought a nice tent, in case the war goes on for a couple of years more…

[@allo-other]

@@hungrymusicwolf "spending ..." The jerk had some good advisers and tended to have a valid point ONLY when his view of international relations coincided with his lens of money, money, money. I base this partly on John Bolton's remarkably honest depictions of Narcissist-in-Cheat in the PBS Frontline "Putin and the Presidents" series.

[@pansepot1490]

I would advise to try and be more charitable. When America elected Trump who basically said “f*k nato you’re on your own”, embraced Putin, badmouthed European leaders and started a tariffs war with Europe, we Europeans realized that we must learn to be more self reliant and reduce our dependence on an ally that is not as certain as it was in the past. To be clear, I don’t agree in the least with Macron’s China stunt, I share Alex point of view in that regard, however I agree with Macron push for a more assertive EU. The problem with the EU, when compared to the US, is that it’s a union of sovereign countries, therefore it takes more work and effort to agree on a common line of action. On the plus side however, if one of the leaders is an idiot, the actual damage they can do is limited because the rest will rein them in. In America, if you elect an idiot (no offense) the only thing we all can do is cross our fingers and hope he won’t do irreparable damage for the four years he is in office.

[@Oikonomos12]

Completely agree... Macron looks a bit desperate with his behavior.

[@paulfuller9352]

As usual Alex you are logical, concise and erudite in breaking down complex issues. Your intellect applied to the great issues that face us all is greatly admired by us plebs. Thank you and keep up the good work.

[@RosieBaseball]

The issue with France is pride. They always want to take the lead and is not a good team player. Unfortunately, their leadership is primarily from their point of view based on its geographic location in Europe where it has security until the Nazis came right up to their door step and then it was time to cry "Uncle Sam". The eastern part of Europe is unsettling and France fails to see that. It is the same with Ukraine, where the eastern part of Ukraine is where turmoil exists but since it is part of one whole country, it can't be disregarded. France needs to comprehend that as well, that the eastern part of Europe is where the turmoil is and needs to incorporate that into the whole of Europe.

[@ivancho5854]

I believe that France is very aware of its position and eastern Europe's fears (it is much worse than unsettled). The problem is that France is not, has never been and never will be a good team player. They have never truly been an ally of any country, except fleetingly when it benefits them alone. Quite frankly France doesn't care at all about easten Europe or the Ukraine and we should all wake up and recognise the character France. Macron has difficulties at home and to divert attention from raising the retirement age against the wishes of the people he caused problems for Taiwan. Why? Simply he's French. Slava Ukraine. 🇺🇦🇬🇧

[@anthonycastaneda6939]

Yeah, and that’s why Switzerland is “neutral”. Cause they are surrounded by NATO countries.

[@allo-other]

@@ivancho5854 Unfortunately for the protesters, demographic economics dictate that France really did need to raise the luxuriously low retirement age. Perhaps Macron wanted to divert attention, but the retirement-protests came AFTER Macron fawned over tRUMP AND after Macron imagined that "He" alone could dissuade P00ti from the greatest geopolitical blunder of the early 21st Century. Expressed differently, Macron is a condensation of Louis' and Napolean's assumption that la France should rule Europe.

[@delfinenteddyson9865]

France lived undisturbed the 40 years of the iron curtain and has no problem if it gets back up for anotehr 40 years

[@timmteller871]

France never really had a stance when it comes to easter Europe and they really do not understand it much. Their focus is much more on the Mediterranean.

[@kingace6186]

The EU should put out a memo stating that Macron does not speak on behalf of Europe and its collective interests.

[@Zoroff74]

It's interesting that Macron would push France's agenda, when he was there with Van der Leyen who actually represented EU. That shows how Macron is following the autocratic line of imperial power pushing.

[@yhormsson]

It sounds like the positives were mostly undermined by the negative

[@leonardell-bon7104]

Prof Alex Stubb was soft in his comments. As a European, I think Emmanuel Macron made a big mistake and he should apologise publicly or communicate what he meant by his statement. I suspect that he was parroting what President Xi ask him to say. This was done to humiliate the US and threaten Taiwan. I am sure Macron was given something in return for this. He should be ashamed of himself. I wonder what the French press is saying about this.

[@anonnimus]

Very good analysis. My impression like yours was was that the timing of his comments was not good. I agree completely that declaring a separation between the US and European interests, undermines the Western Values/Rules Based Order and signals to Autocratic regimes that France (if not Europe) is open to negotiation and compromise on Western Values. To make matters worse (I didn't see you address this) was that the German foreign minister visited China shortly afterward and basically said that Germany and France were on the same page. Further emphasizing the separation between the US and "Europe." In the context of influencing the Global South and diversification of supply chains and markets.( I'd like to hear your take on this) I have seen a flurry of activity in the last few months by Germany and France to visit trade partners in Asia Pacific, India and Africa. My impression was that Germany was able to announce much more than France with regards to contracts cooperation etc. So my conclusion was that the China visit was as much about Macron's struggles at home as an effort to retain China's cooperation on trade issues. In addition, I was left with the impression that Macron was trying to put France if not Europe in the same camp as the "non-aligned countries" like India, Brazil, and South Africa. Finally, with regards to Europe's approach to China, I'm left with the Impression that neither Germany nor France learned anything from the Russian experience. They seem to be wilfully ignorant of the results of empowering an obviously aggressive political player, with imperialistic ambitions. They seem to only be thinking with their wallets and trade accounts. Damn Consequences! Does this mean that Europe is simply playing a game of Realpolitique based on the Henry Kisinger school of thought, and that the Western Values Order is just a mirage that countries use as a rhetorical tool when it suits them? To me the lesson from Russia is that peace through trade is not enough, and frankly doesn't work. Russia simply used the economic benefits of trading with the West to fill its war chest and fund undermining Western democratic values everywhere. China will do the same. Making Autocratic Authoritarian regimes financially viable in order to stimulate domestic GDP and take advantage of emerging markets with growth opportunities, is not just a betrayal of Western Values but also counterproductive. Eventually these countries will become strong enough to overpower you. The hope that through trade they will adopt our values is at best naive. Rather benefits of trade should only be conferred on those countries willing to adopt Western Order values. Essentially all countries should be on a path to be EU members (at least qualitatively) If they are not, then they should be treated accordingly. Why feed a monster that's going to eat you when it gets strong enough?

[@jeffreyschnedar8020]

Spot on. I wonder if China’s game of rhetoric to help with Russia but never actually helping reign in Putin will go over well a year from now in Europe as thats exactly what China did with North Korea and the US efforts to denuclearise the peninsula. At some point EU has to learn . . . . I hope

[@2KSnSLifestyle]

Western values ? The US trades more with China than any other European country. Your view is hypocritical. Go back to your cave.

[@__Andrew_]

"western values" always under Threat from within too of course, eg in the Dominion v Fox News lawsuit we see the extent to which fox ( led by an Australian Murdoch) Was hellbent on undermining faith in democracy ( canadian Voting systems manufacturer) . Also in the same week a sad American side show of two separate instances of Trigger-happy homeowners shooting at individuals who had accidentally come onto their property (shot dead in one case).

[@KW-hk2jd]

Excellent points. Scary.

[@mgronich948]

The European valuse that makes Europe stay silent when American kills 1 million Iraqi civilians because Saddam had WMD's? Oh Saddam didn't have WMD's Did Europe complain about the 1 million Iraqis then? No, what are Europe's values? They are to be obediant vassals of their overlord. And ignore the hipocracy of support the war against Iraq.

[@charlespeach7360]

Well said, an excellent summary. Thank you Alex!

[@khalidalzahrani6545]

I wish every world leader had your caliber and knowledge.

[@christianecoughlan7392]

Agree with you, from a french citizen!

[@Lilith42832]

Very good as always, Macron is a weak man in my opinion

[@Ambrose136]

He is actually a clown instead of a politician. China is on the declining way very fast. What China has all comes from the trade surplus from America. China bribes the top officials in the west to remould their political system and makes them more corrupt and rotten. Do you feel your country has been becoming more and more totalitarian like China?

[@annikkituominen8741]

Thank you for your analysis. It is easy to agree with it. As an ordinary EU citizen, that's exactly how I see it. He solos to his own and our community's misfortune. He doesn't have a political eye, to understand what we want and aim for. We must act unitedly together. In the European Union, we don't need soloists, but honest, fair, forward-looking leadership. Managers who grow up in the closet and eat their own bread are a thing of the past. I'm tired of his statements. They are thoughtless and stupid.

[@2KSnSLifestyle]

Democracy is about the freedom to choose. What a hypocrite you are.

[@AlCapone71]

Very articulate. Thank you

[@paulneilson4106]

Alex. Good to see you, good to hear you, glad you are with us personally and as a nation.

[@olena.tarasiuk]

Sometimes, I wonder if Macron's politics is rooted in sheer vanity. He seemed to have been charmed by the staged ovation he had received in China. Let's be honest: every crowd reaction would have been staged. It's just the matter of response it evokes. The arrangement of the meeting painted him in a certain light. Very flattering, but also subtly disrespectful for anyone with eyes wide open. But, anyway, as a representative of a large Europian nation he should have been more responsible with his words. Xi is too cunning a player for someone like Macron. And it's clear who played who in the end.

[@christianleblanc2842]

La Gloire.

[@alexcool879]

Fully agree

[@MeGawOOt99]

Its kinda funny. Had Macron been a US president, they would have branded him an isolationist. I mean imagine a US president said the same thing about Ukraine. I mean technically you can take Macron's arguement and it would also be relevant for the US. US is like a continent away from Europe. So the concept of France saying I don't care about Taiwan while US says geopolitically Taiwan is important. Just remember geopolitically Ukraine is more important to the EU and France than for the US. Yet US is the largest contributor of arms to Ukraine. Just saying France should keep that in mind when they make statements about Taiwan.

[@frankjames4743]

Perfect timing Prof Stubb to help my understanding of this situation.

[@zeno15sti33]

excellent take I can't believe the French allowed him to drive a wedge through the coalition that Biden is spent so much time gluing together.

[@stevenrapza2618]

You bring an excellent perspective on important issues

[@militarytopfive3355]

Mr. Stubb what do you think about the despicable human rights abuses of the CCP?

[@zacharydavis4398]

6:10 - 6:22 duly noted. We in the USA can spend money out of our own pockets to come to the aid of an ally (Europe/France/etc), but thn we have ally’s such as but not limited to: France making it clear they view the relationship as a one way relationship. We can support them by any means that we can, but we now know those like Macron/etc won’t do the same if the tables happened to be turned. 6:10 - 6:36 EXACTLY- at least one would’ve thought, but guess not to people such as but not limited to: Macron/etc 6:10 - 6:41 right ! 6:10 - 6:55 - 7:14 - 7:30 - 6:10 - 7:54 💯💯💯💯 6:10 - 8:08 it hurts to those of us who support but thn get hit with Macrons framing of the matters, but it is what it is. He’s the leader of a sovereign nation who can do and say as they believe is best. 6:10 - 8:16 thank you for spending the time to create and share this content awareness 🙏🏾 6:10 - 8:18 💯💯💯💯 6:10 - 9:08 true unfortunately 💯💯💯💯💯Real Life💯💯💯💯💯 we feel increasingly like we are being used in the worst way with such as but not limited to: Macrons rhetoric 6:10 - 9:22 💯💯💯💯 Macron is effectively undermining deterrence of military action against Taiwan 6:10 - 10:08 💯💯💯💯 6:10 - 10:20 💯💯💯💯 6:10 - 10:33 unfortunately true 6:10 - 10:44 truth 6:10 - 10:51 💯💯💯💯 6:10 - 11:08 💯💯💯💯💯 6:10 - 11:15 💯💯💯💯💯 - 11:38 - 11:57 hopefully there is truth to this - 11:38 - 12:27 - 12:36 💯💯💯💯 - 11:38 - 12:44 ❤️ - 11:38 - 13:16 unfortunately true - 11:38 - 13:32 - 13:48 - 13:53 unfortunately true 0 - 14:07 - 14:17 thank you for what you do for collective strength/security/prosperity/democratic-values/unity/etc❤️ It doesn’t go unnoticed❤️

[@pa6370]

France isn't a country that could be considered an ally or partner - too unreliable.

[@seanrenard8171]

Excellent as ever

[@jed4119]

Thank you for your thoughts. Macron is tone deaf but happy to move the spotlight from domestic affairs. Macron wants to set himself up as an independent voice separate from the US I understand the sentiment but one voice is really important right now.

[@billrakowski9591]

I am so glad you are covering this. Thank you.

[@philopapos]

Great analysis and synthesis. Macron was talking European authonomy with an empty barell. How can EU be strategically autonomous if it is not united and can not project serious power, not just economic but also military? And with the Chinese of course diplomacy is paramount but with clear principles which need to be adhered to and defended.

[@georgefalcodemats2432]

Excellently explained. You convinced me on the bad timing and bad manner of the argument posed by the French president. But there is no doubt that Europe's dependence on an increasingly unstable, isolationist and bellicose US is a problem we Europeans must tackle. Few among us would hesitate to engage against a unprovoked attack on Taiwan. But perhaps not all of us would feel that a fight against a China attack due to unnecessary changing of the status quo would be so enthusiastic followed

[@dougnave8258]

Thanks for this...

[@hungrymusicwolf]

One of the main issues I have with Alex is on China is that he doesn't acknowledge that there are people/countries for whom diplomacy is a zero sum game. For anyone who hasn't been the victim of someone with narcissistic personality disorder: the universal advice is to go no contact with them, and to absolutely do not communicate with them if you can avoid it. To a narcissist any opportunity to talk is an opportunity to manipulate, there is no such thing as "mutually beneficial", there's only the narcissist. The various leaders of China have repeatedly shown that they have no problem pretending to abide by rules publicly while breaking them privately. They do not care about rules or promises, they do not care for mutual prosperity, they only care about power. They are similar to narcissists in that way. I personally got to experience some of this attitude in some online communities that China started having an influence in, but suffice to say this attitude is rife in the upper layers of Chinese society in general. Status, wealth, power, those are the things that matter. You cannot negotiate with these people. The only language they speak is that of consequences. Diplomacy is just a means for them to undermine yours and achieve their objective. It's zero sum, not mutually beneficial like diplomacy is supposed to be.

[@allo-other]

Agreed. I think that Woof Whiner "Diplomacy" is a projection of hubristic Xinese "princeling" attitudes. Listening to Western-Chinese critics of the XiXiP, it becomes clear that wealth, power, and status are paramount --- their own people are not merely pawns in their power game, but are expected to kowtow to authority. Just as mediation-oriented Westerners are accused of not understanding the mindset of eastern autocrats, I think that Woof Whiners misunderstand how Westerners will eventually respond to arrogant bullies who drop the mask and reveal that they cannot be trusted.

[@nunyabusiness863]

That is exactly what I said about mr macrons negotiation attempt with Mr putin. It was only giving time and cover for russian military buildup and planning. You could see putin sitting there just wasting everyone's time. I will say this situation differs in that china, while provocative and america hating, has not actually started a hot war or annexed territory the way russia has done since 2008. Therefore I would continue give attempts at diplomacy a chance despite the duplicity of totalitatian states. Edit: you're also right that these types of leaders only understand one language and unfortunately in many cases, that is the language of force and violence.

[@therealdebater]

Yes, my own feeling is that we must, collectively, learn the lesson that it is a complete folly to appease dictators. We (the 'West') have allowed both Putin's Russia and Xi's China to become powerful; a policy of disengagement (i.e. not trading with them) would have gone a long way toward preventing this. I would suggest reading up about Joachim von Ribbentrop, and how he worked tirelessly to undermine the resolve and unity of the world powers he (and his master) intended to destroy. You'll notice the same patterns and tricks; how he used disinformation and diplomacy as a weapon; how he painted a veneer of respectability on the evil organisation he loved; how he used people's gullibility to help achieve his nefarious ends. We really need to learn not to fall for this again and again.

[@billturner6564]

Your comment is wonderful because it means I don't have to write one and secondly because it is better than anything I could say. In short I absolutely agree with everything you say, it is vital that the democracies of the world for comon cause and stick together China Iran Russia and there acolytes have no concept of good of rights wrongs humanity they believe in Power and might alone .. Right now Putin is convinced he will win because he will sacrifice 2... 3...4 .. million Russians if he has to to achieve his goal of dominating Ukraine He says this is strength ... and what does France want ?? To trade profitably with Russia China 😅 America must spend hundreds of billions to protect us but france has no interest in Taiwan..... This is because for France it is all the same if the Russians kill 30 million Ukrainians or 30 million Polish They know there is Germany between them and the Barbarians France is a failed world power because it always makes the wrong choice it conspired with Moscow before WW1 to avenge its failed Franco Prussian it lost both ...then it learned nothing and committed the Most barbarous acts of teror and representation in Algeria in light of this one can see France has some sympathy for Russia and its need to dominat a former colony. Whatever we say or anyone says Business is moving out of China faster than it moved in during the early 2000s because China is to expensive and Unreliable China is Dying and Xi is looking for a way to obscure it A war over Taiwan would achieve that beautifully Diplomacy did not stop Hitler it did not stop Stalin sanctions and economic oblivion did not stop Putin.. Only cold hard steel can stop the monster

[@Serching4JerryGarcia]

I remember reading about how Japan gave China millions of dollars to go towards battling climate change. They took that money and never looked back. They probably used it to modernize their military.

[@thomasklui4747]

As incisive and interesting as your analysis is, so too are some of the responses in this column. Tasty! Food for thought.

[@timknin]

Very Well Stated!

[@RRRazzzaRRR]

Great thinking and reflection. Thanks for sharing your ideas, they are worth listening to.

[@ytfanfan]

First of all, I love this channel as a Chinese person living in Europe! In my opinion, Macron’s move to visit China as French President and the things he said are the direct result of the very little unity in EU since its founding. Setting aside whether his visit is strategically the right choice, I think he is thinking outside the box, taking risks, and not stopping at crossroads when facing the current EU bureaucratic environments. I’m sure his interaction with Chinese students, walking the streets of Guang Zhou, and actually getting a feel of China outside of the typical parliament handshake and big table conversation planted a seed which can be very useful if the EU focus more on what can be learned and less about “you are wrong”. Rapid iteration > lessen shaming > speed up understanding > refresh and repeat.

[@EmmanuelMwanyongo]

Learnt a lot from this.

[@toncoumans6985]

The only problem with Macron is that he back tracks. He is absolutely right; Europe should stay out of the Taiwan issue. Furthermore, Europe should focus on integration into Eurasia. That means reconciliation with Russia and railways to China.

[@texasjack]

Alex, you are one of the most credible analyst out there. Keep up the good work.

[@alexdieudonne1924]

Another great analysis Alex.

[@michaelkepes6125]

Great video Information in a precis concise and easily digestible format Well done Professor 🎓 Sisu

[@Melrose51653]

Alex, once again thank you. I have a comment that I hope does not sound overly partisan and brutal. From a distance it appears this is just another attempt at demonstrating French independence from the thoughts and concerns of its partners and allies buoyed by a mistaken belief in the superiority and uniqueness of France and French political theory. This hubris is made possible by the rock solid physical security provided by the EU and US who he treats as retrograde distant family members. Just when you need France to shoulder its responsibilities as an ally, it begins looking for a way to avoid that by invoking hypothetical sophistication in political ideology- it is just too superior to go along with the sophomoric collective thinking of its partners and allies. One might ask to what end? I think he could be more empathetic to the issue of Taiwan if he imagined France as a figurative island within Europe and subjected to a powerful neighbors dubious historic claim of sovereignty and ownership of France. The last time that happened the value of collective security and the necessity of vigorously opposing an aggressive dictator should have been learned permanently.

[@ryanward10]

Tell me about a time in history when France has ever empathized with anyone. A time when France ever did something that was hard for France, but was in the interests of the greater good. I'll wait. I think Macron is just being French, and the people of France love it when he acts like a big shot who can steer European/Global affairs to France's benefit. The people of France, like those of America, Russia, & China imagine themselves as better than other peoples. If you don't believe me, just ask any of them. ✌❤

[@philzmusic8098]

i['m old enough to remember DeGaulle. He was a perfect example of what you're talking about.

[@charlesdeco3821]

@@ryanward10 as a French, I will agree with you that the French might have some kind of inferiority complex coming from our downgrading in the word order after WW2. However, I cannot let you say that France is always acting selfishly, In recent history take for example the French military interventions in Africa to help French African allies fight terrorist threats (operation Barkhane notably). A bit upstream in history and if you consider the US' War of Independence a fight for "the interest of the greater good", you can consider the fact that France was the main US ally.

[@juliarichter6987]

Yes, that's why they have LePen and a nationalistic Left. Maybe he wanted to give them some sugarbread after his reform concerning pensions.

[@unebrindille472]

I feel very flattered to meet so many great specialists of the French psyche who have obviously studied it profoundly and are surely not prone to childish generalizations 🙄

[@richardburgess8657]

I concur with your assessments. I do wonder what impact Macron’s domestic turmoil (retirement scheme adjustments) might have contributed?

[@Pincer88]

I think Macron was possibly crossed over the AUKUS deal and the fact that the Paris-Berlin axis is breaking down somewhat and that he was looking for some tit-for-tat. That aside, the Élysée is suffering from "folie de grandeur" for a long time. Indeed, a Gaullist Idée fixe that boils down to the idea, that France is the natural leader of Europe. Quite an alienating idea for most people who are not French, who regard that idea as snobbish and chauvinist. As for de-coupling: though far from productive in the sense of maintaining relations, China has spelled out its ambitions to become the new global hegemon. And it has shown no reluctance or moderation in its efforts to get there. Cyber warfare, industrial espionage, bullying of neighboring countries in the South China Sea as well in the Himalayas, rejecting the internationally agreed rules (from which it has benefited for so long), actively seeking to drive a wedge in the transatlantic relation and last - but certainly not least - building a vast, offensive military with capabilities specific to beat western weapon systems and claiming by force or intimidation territorial waters that by law do not belong to China. Under Xi Jinping our dependency on China's production capacity has been weaponized and we should be under no illusion as to why that already is a problem that will become only much bigger. It's for the same reason why the dependence on Russian gas by Western-European countries was foolish and short sighted. If the West is not to be blackmailed again, it needs to decouple from China and rapidly. And there's another reason for that: China's Road & Belt Initiative. China is cultivating its own and expanding backyard, which means in the mid- to long term that it won't need exports to western countries anymore. And when that plan has come to full fruition, China will decouple and throw the West in utter disarray. Our weakness is the extend to which our economies rely on Chinese imports and investments and that insight is not wasted on the hardliners under Xi Jinping. He is - just as Putin - in it for the zero sum game, not for friendship or good relations. A look at what's happening in Hong Kong as we speak will make that as clear as day. Cheers

[@psu2dcu]

Excellent discussion and analysis. I always enjoy your takes on geopolitics; they are clear, concise and provide a basis for navigating difficult issues.

[@keweenawbee]

Yeah I’m just casual observer but it seemed so disjointed. Thanks for the confirmation.

[@sampotter4455]

Professor Stubb I want to take your class! Excellent, sober, well measured analysis. (Phoenix, Arizona, USA here). Us being mad at France is nothing new. I'd love to hear more details on your view that we should not decouple from China. Pros and cons? I'm sitting here just a few miles from the new TSCM plant being built so we are seeing the decoupling first hand. I hope more people in the US hear you. We need this kind of rational discourse.

[@pierrevanhalteren5733]

Agreed.

[@marymarlow3646]

Is the wedge Macron seemed to drive between Europe and the US related to the AUKUS pact that excluded France who was the original source of new Australian submarines but was snubbed by the late cancellation of the deal and exclusion from the pact although France has territorial interests in the Pacific? As an Australian I am asking how much our clumsy former prime minister had to do with this.

[@paolomarri1227]

Dear Alex, sadly clear! Thanks.

[@lenzor100]

So Macron brings a business delegation. And de-coupling from China isn't necessarily good. Aren't these politically disastrous statements a result of Macron "selling out" politically wise to maintain strong trade relations that other western states may find shady? Isn't this the cost of not de-coupling/ increasing trade?

[@Djaybird]

another excellent discussion, thank you Alex!

[@stretchydave]

Doesn't sound that Macron is much of a team player. What Europe needs now at this crucial time is unity in words and in actions. It almost seems that he's advancing his own interests more so than his country's. Just an opinion...thanks for an informative video....

[@josarian420]

Good analysis and I have subscribed for more. From this American's point of view Macron comes across as a quisling and echoing the worst of Trump's geopolitics.

[@philipwong9557]

The timing and content of Macron's message appeared ill-advised at best. While open and direct dialogue with the US and other European leaders should be encouraged, making the statement as he was leaving China left a rather strange juxtaposition. Insisting on French/European strategic autonomy from the US in the presence of the US - maybe NATO or at the G7 - is contextually appropriate. Making such a statement immediately after meeting the US's strategic rival seems like a cowardly move. It was as though Macron didn't dare say this to the US but needed the backing of Xi to give him courage.

[@0Cico0]

the question is, why is Macron doing this, should we be worried about his politics, and what would it be like if Le Pen won the election?

[@leonardell-bon7104]

Very good point. If Le Pen wins it will get worse.

[@allo-other]

"what would it be like if Le Pen won the election?" Worse. Much worse.

[@camillalundgren3485]

I think he tries to reach the anti-west people. It is not worrying but embarrassing

[@wojtekqwe1]

Prof Stubb in a very diplomatic and polite way expressed the same what Trump commented on this visit. Macron has mouth full of words about united, autonomous Europe and does everything he can to undermine that idea. What he said just reassured us in Poland once again that we cannot rely on France.

[@realdaybreaker8013]

Does anyone know the equipment used to film these videos, the quality and ambience looks remarkably top notch.

[@alexanderstubb1001]

Ciao folks, a big 🙏🙏🙏! I read each and every comment with interests and appreciation. We are coming out wit a new series on my upcoming book (workbin progress). This week we recorder six episodes on it: content and preface, intro, and chapters 1-4. Can't wait to hear what you think. Will accommodate your comments in the book.

[@paspa]

It would be better, if you worked together with the EU towards our real practical common interests. After all, you are an economist, you know better than that.

[@ManuelBasiri]

My French friends. Can you please select a more reasonable and mature minded president next time?

[@robertmiller2173]

As a New Zealander, being a Super, Super Power Country, yes we are a Super Country, we are Super Small with a Population of 5.2 million Super Super Lovely People! We are super at producing high quality food, Lamb, Beef, venison, pork, goat, salmon, crayfish oysters, mussels, wine, beer, hops etc etc. We produce enough high quality food to be able to feed a Population of 50,000,000 people. We also have our own space program called Rocket Lab. We were the first to split the Atom!!!! BANG take that Putin you excrement! Thanks to Ernest Rutherford. We were the first Nation on Earth to Give Women the Vote in 1893 thanks to the work of Kate Sheppard. We are also Super because in NZ's South Island you can go Snow Skiing in the Morning and surfing in the afternoon, I did it in 1987! You can go hunting, trapping (Yes it is encouraged to kill introduced species that kill our natives birds, lizards, geckos etc) and you can go fresh water fishing with mainly Brown Trout, Rainbow Trout, Salmon (Sokeye or Quinnet) or lovely fresh water eels or lobster, sea fishing in New Zealand has a massive Ocean fishery . Aquaculture is becoming big business here. So my point is; that living in the World's Super Super Power at the tings that really matter I'd like to say to Russia's Bad Boy Putin, pull out of Ukraine now! Germany grow up and build some Leopard MK2 and ammunition ASAP; Germany Start acting like what you are; the Economic Powerhouse of Europe and yes you now need to become the Military. France, grow up as well and start acting as a Partner to Germany and Poland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania. (Hungary should be kicked out of the EU and NATO). Italy needs a miracle, it needs to believe in itself again.......Italy can go high tech design....beauty combined! So much potential for a United EU ....... Economically and military. Yes the EU needs to get heaps of Ovarian and Testicular fortitude and toughen up and plus a massive investment in defense Research Science and Technology and good old Research and Development! Europe used to lead the world in terms of R&D, it can again. Europe can work with Rocket Lab here in NZ. New Zealand can work with our friends in the Pacific, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Philippines, Malaysia, Singapore. It is strange that the Only two countries that New Zealand doesn't have a free trade agreement with are my beloved USA and my shit baag Country, Russia. I would never want a Free Trade Agreement with Russia! I love the USA! I think they should lock the dump up! But I love the USA with all my heart! China needs take a Chill Pill. I love the Chinese, yes Taiwanese especially but also Mainland China... I grew up with Chinese neighbors... they weren't commies. India will be the new China and being democratic I think it will be a great place. I love France, but Macron.... ?

[@keli4068]

now it's the vessel talking. "How dare you make my master angry"

[@johnlaudenslager706]

As often, I like Alex's values and evaluation. I agree that Macron often used poor word choice at least.

[@delfinenteddyson9865]

tldr, former finnish statesman is surprised that a french statesman acts french

[@danieldamir2262]

When would European Union speak with one voice? This structural misalignment is by design, a real union needs to happen.

[@josephdanel7729]

Have you paid attention to Australian relations with the cccp?

[@CollectiveWesterner]

Macron was certainly not promoting EU interests, and I would even propose that he was not promoting French interests either....he was simply promoting Macron's interests. Macron est le Fou.

[@williambreedyk7861]

"Brain dead" eh ? Very funny,- Macron has no comprehension of what is going on in the world. please, someone, vote him out of office ASAP.

[@paspa]

The US has never been a good option strategically, look what happened to the UK, after the Brexit.

[@egyptianusify2043]

I was hoping some deeper insights or at least novelle enlightened perspective. The core of the the West's problem with Russia and with China isn't a lack of talking or any sort of misunderstanding - it is the absolute core of our values versus theirs. China/Russia will not become nicer as they become stronger. Their goal is to dominate full stop. Australia learned their lesson but I guess Europe must experience it first hand (*again* 😅 Russia didn't wake them up).

[@LuisRomeroLopez]

4:15 As some people might say: «Just don't do good things that might look a lot like bad things».

[@cd4429]

Thank you for your feedback. As an American citizen I felt stabbed in the back by Macron. It's okay for me to protect Europeans with my tax dollars, but the EU has its own interests when it's convenient? That was what I got out of Macron.

[@anthonycastaneda6939]

France is starting to sound like Hungary. Macron and Shultz need to become more like the Polish president. But if the S**t hits the fan I do believe they will go all in!

[@hydrolifetech7911]

@@anthonycastaneda6939 they are making it easy for the sh*t to hit the fan by their actions!

[@jeffreyschnedar8020]

As a fellow American, Macron makes me want to question supporting Ukraine. EU needs to reign that clown in. If they follow France’s lead, US should drop them like a rock in the pond.

[@dixiedean1955]

I'm a Brit and I'm not impressed with him either.

[@jenserikhoverby]

Brilliant analysis - I agree. However you missed an important point about what Macrons good intentions with a vision for Europe is as a self-reliant Superpower. But we are highly reliant on USA and Macrons approach to buddy with Xi was ugly and I hope that this emboldens the rest of the European countries to unite against Macrons mindset and put him in his place.

[@johnkabuoro6021]

Prof . Alex on one hand you a agree that Americas foreign policy and aggressive stands on China is not helpful but on the other hand you castigating China for giving Ursula von der Leyen who is an amplifier of the same American policies a cold shoulder . 

[@briansidney3403]

Perhaps next time he needs to move his troops halfway round the world then he should do it himself instead of asking help from America .. the stakes are so high right now what is to happen in the next 5 years will define the next 100 years and our unity should not be shaken.. Democracy is under attack by dictators who seek to rule the world order. It’s not just an American problem it’s a problem of every free nation .. Surly France has had IPs stolen by China too. I mean I don’t have to underline what’s at stake.

[@user-zq3un8zr6d]

Hey Alex love the analysis, as an Australian uncomfortable about the possibility of a direct conflict with China, I see an unintentional good of Macron's "appeasement" of China regarding Taiwan, is that it encourages the Chinese to continue to try and engage and win Western states, rather than given up on this and simply throw their lot fully in with Russia (on Ukraine) on the conclusion that the West is fully united in its opposition to Chinas territorial ambitions. I.e. Marcon's position/statements fed the "Strategic ambiguity" position of the West regarding Taiwan, and so stalled and raised uncertainty for the Chinese regarding Taiwan and Ukraine.

[@josarian420]

Interesting theory. I hope you are right and Macron is playing "good cop" to the US's "bad cop". Unfortunately he comes across as a selfish quisling to this US taxpayer.

[@pahatpahat9566]

So if you are concern JUST with the interests of EU, why can't China think of her own interests above EU's?

[@bowlampar]

Macaroni even went to the extent of pressuring President Zelensky to give up eastern Ukraine in exchange of peace from Poop-Tin after several visits to Moscow. This time he sees a rare opportunity arises out of Taiwan Straits heighten tension as a way to appease Xi Jinping in exchange for economic goodies. 🤔He is quite a sneaky opportunistic leader indeed.

[@guydreamr]

Totally agree. Strategic autonomy is one thing, throwing Xi a bone on Taiwan is another. Macron may wish to reflect on the fact that the growing power of the authoritarian axis imperils Europe as well, no matter how geographically remote he may think he is from the brewing crisis in the Indo--pacific. A rising tide threatens all coastlines.

[@jasc4364]

The French never forgave the Americans to save them in WW2.They’ll also never forgive them to save France from Russia.

[@essardaudinett6934]

There are no friends in politics only interest.

[@mariban3352]

You forgot about the time when he said that if Russia would use nuclear weapons, France would not respond. Hmmm🤔 bad or ugly?

[@PlinyTheWelder]

What did macron possibly gain from this mess? Does it even shore up support from his right? Certainly not enough to have been worth it.

[@billrakowski9591]

have a few problems with this visit, but I'll confine to just one. In terms of the war in Ukraine, any negotiating at this time is not in Ukraine's best interest. We are probably weeks away from the Ukrainian spring counter offensive. Why would you want to negotiate now? Ukraine is not going to agree to any settlement that does not give them back the territories that were taken from them. Nor should they. Negotiating now just plays into putin's hands by making Ukraine appear unreasonable. I really question Macron's motives by suggesting such a thing. Something else that bothers me about is how stingy the French have been in their support. I don't have the exact position in front of me, but in terms of gdp, France's contribution is way down on the list.

[@billrakowski9591]

Frances's contribution in terms of gdp is 0.07% and they are ranked 22nd behind Netherlands, Portugal, Luxembourg.

[@lucapagano7088]

Perfect explanation. I think you were too kind on Macron speaking about "good" points, which are very trivial..the bad ones are far worst and bigger.

[@johnsnowlow1883]

Dear Professor Stubb, at 6.31 to 6.34 you opined that "the Taiwan issue is as much ours as Ukraine is". I have included the 2nd and 3rd communiqué fyr that brings clarity that your opinion is not a fact. Here is the stark contrast between Ukraine and Taiwan: 1) Ukraine is a sovereign country. Versus 2)"United States recognized that the government of the People's Republic of China was the sole legal government of China, and acknowledged the PRC's position that Taiwan is part of China" So why is "the Taiwan issue is as much ours as Ukraine is" ? Fyr The 2nd communiqué (January 1, 1979), the Joint Communiqué on the Establishment of Diplomatic Relations, formally announces the commencement of normal relations between the United States and the People's Republic of China. In so doing, the United States recognized that the government of the People's Republic of China was the sole legal government of China, and acknowledged the PRC's position that Taiwan is part of China.In addition, the United States government declared that it would end formal political relations with the Republic of China ("Taiwan") while preserving economic and cultural ties. Both sides reaffirmed their wish to reduce the risk of international conflict as well as avoidance of hegemony of any nation in the Asia-Pacific region. 3rd communiqué Both sides also reaffirmed the statements made about the Taiwan issue in the previous communiqué.

[@russianpatriot2022]

It seemed to me that you expected instructions from your mentors on what to say.

[@kevinwilliams3694]

Macron got played, again.

[@pansepot1490]

Hi, Alex. Your commentary is much appreciated. Do you think Macron has understood that he has made a bad political and diplomatic mistake (I heard his staff tried damage control by issuing “clarifications”)? How bad do you think the actual damage is? I understand that the optic was bad and ugly but practically? It’s not that the west’s support for Ukraine will decrease because of what Macron said. And to be real, the Germans have been lukewarm when it was time to commit supplying tanks and weapons. The USA too, however generous, still refuse to send long range missiles that are essential for getting Crimea back. Is it possible that Macron’s real offense is to have said the quiet part aloud when he talked about Putin saving face? Seems to me that the only countries that want Putin and Russia get a memorable beating are Poland and the Baltic states.

[@simian_essence]

A good analysis. The only area of French foreign policy that was not mentioned - but should have been - is the specific actions of France in helping Ukraine. As long as France sends Cesars to Ukraine and doesn't in fact change French policy on Taiwan - we can ignore the 4-year-old-child nature of Macron's words.

[@robertwalker7924]

Xi,s smile says it all..

[@cynthiajennings5792]

All good points. Macron wants to Europe's emperor? It was embarrassing.

[@QuizmasterLaw]

So... how much was NOKIA Lure Trap Killed?

[@paulmurray8922]

It was what I expected from Macron. He has an outsized regard for France's power to influence geopolitical issues and, with him, it's France first and damn the consequences. Strategic autonomy, led by a man whose first instinct is to roll unto his back to have his belly rubbed by any autocrat with whom he believes he can do business. Suuurre.