Magician Gets KK And An OUTRAGEOUS Deal

[@stanime3065]

Hi guys Doug polk here. Today i'm going to analyse some hands. Don't limp open pre. Now were onto the flop, i don't mind checking, calling, raising or folding here. Throw a dice and make a decision based of that. Now we called the flop we gotta call the turn, we also have blockers too 156 different combinations of cards our opponent could have. However i like mixing in a check raise here every now and then. Now the river. Ship it regardless of what comes out, you probably block something somehow. scream FOLDDDDDD. That's it for todays polker hands analyse.

[@m.u.550]

lolol

[@thomasknappitsch2118]

i cried^^

[@branchtana315]

Best comment I've seen on a poker video in...well.....forever

[@soccer123chris8]

Stanime 306 LEGEND

[@MicahLoughman]

Lmao

[@willbrown3963]

Nouri : Bets $5,500 Doug : I don't love this bet size, I'd prefer something more like 5 and a half k or 6k. Nouri : Am I a joke to you

[@joshuapatrick682]

Yeah kinda odd statement…

[@bbbulldog61]

When someone tells you they don't have much left it usually means they have a good hand. 2nd Antonio making that deal is in the spirit of poker. Talking advantage of suckers. like someone offering poker lessons for $1000.

[@DougPolkPoker]

educa-p0ker Joins Team Upswing: bit.ly/cg-mastery

[@bigazn816]

Could that be considered angling the rec player?

[@coreyferguson540]

Did you consider looking at Joey's latest videos to find more NL tourney coaches? Some of the guys he documents have ITM% of 90%! Best players in the world!

[@YolkyPalky]

12:09 It was Bill Perkins who jumped into the mix while not even in the hand and brought up the idea of paying out equity, it wasn't like Antonio brought it up first or was even pushing for it, why not call out Perkins, at least a little bit here?

[@LBC213R20S]

YolkyPalky because Antonio is known for these kind of things (taking advantage of less “experienced/professional” players. Plus Perkins did it for the other guy, and he said he would do it for 6k and screamed nooooo when he was going to pay Antonio 10k, he was trying to save the guy money.

[@balazsgyurak4551]

Agreed. I don't get why some players feel the need to interfere with pots they are not in.

[@TalesFrom_TheCrypto]

Yeah perkins has always been a bit of a loud mouth

[@tippy1951]

he would have saved him 4k! he knew guy didn't have real idea of equity-I disagree with you.

[@BMGipe45]

@@tippy1951 I think Yolky is just pointing out that the idea of chopping equity wasn't even being considered until he chimed in. Was only running once, and playing the hindsight game, would have taken down the whole pot, instead of ultimately overpaying Antonio. Unless you're witnessing something shady, you should never get involved in a hand that you have no part of.

[@Mad1Lee]

LMAO, old fishie guy with silver hair check-raising two people after limp-calling pre-flop. It's time to run away as FAST AS YOU CAN. I would not even feel comfortable here with 99 or 77.

[@markulous08]

With 99 or 77 you have way more equity though at least. A single pair here though is an insta-fold.

[@DavidMoncrief]

I think what most people are missing about the Perkins deal here is that it is possible that he has additional information, in this instance if he folded out a jack...he could lay an even line on insurance and be ahead because of his information advantage. It turns out based off of the graphics that he had 9-4, but at the table there is no way of knowing that. That's where these deals can get out of hand.

[@samuelrodgers8946]

Definitely plus EV for Antonio, and maybe he shouldn't have pushed it that hard, but it's not that outrageous. W/O card removal, he's 6.8 % (3 jacks with 44 in deck). If the graphics are right, that's worth about $5,800 of the $85,200 pot. So he got an extra $4,200. It's a significant premium, but I wouldn't characterize as theft. We all over pay for insurance. That's what keeps insurance companies in business.

[@merricktopping9738]

**Recommends not engaging a pro in negotiations because they'll know equity better** **Proceeds to misquote the equity**

[@patrickgunning1024]

72.4% premium is high in my opinion. 36% seems fair to me. Also Doug didn't misquote the equity he adjusted down because it was possible that some of Antonios out had been folded, which he would have no way of knowing weather or not they were

[@merricktopping9738]

Exactly, why would you factor in something you have no way of knowing is true? That's dumb. If you were to make the dumb assumption that 1 jack was folded at the table, Antonio's odds would actually be at 5.7% or less than 5k EV. If you were make the correct assumption knowing nothing and that the remaining jacks were likely to have been folded 10 out 45 times (players whole cards that are not face up on the table), you would know that there are on average 2.33 jacks remaining in the deck of the remaining 35 cards (which yields ~$5700 EV, not in Doug's quoted range) In actuality, we know that there was no jack that was folded, so you could factor that in (though you wouldn't know this or factor it in if you were making), putting Antonio's true percentage of winning at 8.6% (around $7300 EV, giving Bill Perkins a negative EV deal haha) What actually would be a smart play is doing what Bill Perkins did, but having actually folded a jack (or maybe even two). Lastly, you could argue that the guy paid too high for a premium, but the fact that he turned down a competitive offer to make the deal makes this move unjustifiable.

[@utarian7]

He almost doubled his equity fool.

[@JeffBoski]

“Angling by Antonio” now available on Kindle for $9.99

[@michaelsukhman8247]

100% and it's the second Polk vid where Antonio angles. the one vs Perkins is even more blatant. is Doug going to call him out on this? Here did here (a bit) but not in the spot vs Perkins. Doug DESTROYED Alec Torelli over a similar spot - why not call out Antonio? Also, it seems like I don;t see Antonio in the really top-reg-heavy games so much. Seems he is mostly in these high stakes rec-heavy games. Must be nice...

[@Camcolito]

Why would you play in a game with the best players in the world when you can play the same stakes or more with whales? Not defending Antonio in general, but duh.

[@vasil.6842]

99 likes atm

[@supremeleaderarmy9164]

Stay positive, nut not H.I.V positive

[@ponkey8569]

How is this an angle?? He made some negotiations with his opponent with the cards were flipped up. People do this in cash games all the time so please explain how this is an angle??

[@kevinkane5595]

Equity on turn is (3/44)*$85,200 = $5,810 So that $6k offer from Perkins looks right on; offering to take the risk for $180. However, the offer was made by a player (Perkins) that knew he didn’t have a Jack, preflop so actually the math changes to (3/42)*$85,200 = $6,086 which means he is loosing $86 equity and also taking the risk. Note, if the insurance offering player had fold a single Jack preflop, then they could offer insurance at anything above (2/42)*$85,200 = $4,058.

[@jonathanalexisriveraurena7312]

Kevin Kane If the player that had J8s accept the offer of Perkins What happens if the river is a brick?

[@Str8Raiser]

@ Jonathan Alexis Urena - He gives Perkins $6K from the start, no matter what. If a J had hit, Perkins would have paid him $85,200 from his own stack, as he "insured" the pot for a $6K premium.

[@edwardshowden5511]

Nope, its Perkins who paid to Esfandiari 10k to win the pot no matter what. In normal situation perkins wins in 93%. He paid extra 10k to win 100%.

[@haywoodsmith6189]

Chris In most games it can’t be paid from the stack but otherwise yes this is the concept.

[@-dopeamine-5772]

@@edwardshowden5511 you dont even know which one is perkins

[@cristianm4320]

Perfect negotiating skills by Antonio imo. He knew that he had around 6% equity so he started way above that so he can drop down. If your target is 7k you don't start the negotiation at 7k...Fortunately for him the other guy accepted right away. You could argue for an angle if Antonio proposed the deal knowing that the rec would not know his equity but Perkins did so gg for him!

[@zekebones34]

If you want to be mad at anyone be mad at Bill for throwing it out there when he wasn’t even in the hand

[@TopCheese81]

Zeke Bones I agree if ur not involved in the hand u really shouldn't say anything plus I don't even think Antonio thought about insurance, he just said run it once so....

[@DublinDapper]

Yeah dude should of kept him big mouth shut

[@PeterChessPupil]

He was trying to do the guy a favor that was in the spirit of the game, can't hold ill will against him for that...

[@timothyburke7088]

Perkins and Antonio are close friends, I guarantee Antonio had no issue with Perkins trying to screw him out of 10k.

[@coreyferguson540]

Perkins is a super nice dude and is definitely just trying to liven up the game and give the rec some insurance. Notice how he's flabbergasted when Nouri takes Antonio's shitty deal, when Perkins himself is offering an insurance deal that broadly lines up with Antonio's equity.

[@fpsballin]

Without factoring in the folded dead cards it's 3 outs out of 44 unseen cards for (3/44)*85200=5809.09. From Bill Perkins's perspective it is (3/42)*85200=6085.71 so his offer of 6000 is pretty on the mark. If we factor in all the dead folded cards it's (3/34)*85200=7517.65. Not sure if it's standard practice in a situation like this for the others at the table to reveal if they folded a Jack preflop. If a player knows they folded a Jack preflop they could offer insurance at a significantly lower fee.

[@mmasters180]

Are you sure you want to bet the flop from Rodrock's position? It kind of turns the hand fairly face up polarised range of T9s, 77, 99, or TT+, with a few combos of J8s, two combos of 97s, and with the odd KJ or QJ - all very strong hands that overs don't do much good against. There are no one-card flush draws to represent or be paid off by, and there's not much else going on to incentivize continuance. Add to that the fact that Rodrock only has an SPR of 3, he only needs two streets of value to stack off - or one if he can check-raise the flop. The only nasty turns for him are 6, 8, Jacks, and Queens - and with the Jacks and 8s blocked out the turn will brick fairly often or improve a hand behind enough of the time to give big action. Essentially, even if the flop got checked around, he could go for a probe bet/ call Esfandiari's probe bet on most turns. As for the deal, I 100% agree - Sklansky dollars for equity is the only fair way to negotiate these kinds of situations, but even then it's rarely a good idea for most players who have no idea what their equity actually is. Personally, I would be very against negotiations like that but be much more inclined to change the number of runouts for future cards if possible: if both players agree, equity is more or less maintained (discounting variance). If not, nobody loses any more or less than they were already going to.

[@checkmugged]

Bet size: $5.5k Doug: "I like something more like 5.5 or 6k but it's an alright size" Me: Things that make you go hmmm...?

[@Deleuzer]

Yeah, not Doug's best analysis. Doug: "I think Antonio has to fold. I'd rather call with JJ, because my opponent's bluffs are going to be QJ or KJ. I want to call with hands that don't block his bluffs." Isn't KK the best pair hand to call since it doesn't block QJ, but does block the OESD's outs?

[@vicariouslyrave]

Deleuzer Gilles sure he tripped up on his words. But jj or qq do make more sense because they can turn the nuts. Where as KK can't

[@Deleuzer]

Actually neither of those hands can turn or river the nuts, unless it's running quads. Plus, JJ also blocks JT, another potential bluffing hand the opponent might have. I just think this is a spot where Doug got it wrong. I'm not being a hater, it's just his argument in this video doesn't make any sense. I suspect if we dig really deep, the ATs might have been a better call than the KK, since it has a set blocker, could improve to the nuts, and did not block any of the bluffs. JJ and QQ seem like clear folds to me with KK and AA being borderline, but probable folds against this guy.

[@JasonEmerson711]

Yeah I noticed that too. Did a double take with my ears. It happens

[@haywoodsmith6189]

Deleuzer Gilles No. When you block the bluffs he’s more likely to have value. You want him to have as many bluff combos as possible when you have a bluff catcher.

[@StanHoovis]

" us pros who can immediately figure out that equity" - then immediately miscalculates the equity. #SoPolk

[@persianprince4689]

Most ppl might not understand what Doug is saying but Doug as a poker player you’re videos are WORLD CLASS

[@gruna288]

Educa Poker top 10 player in the world?! This maniac is top5 if not top3 with otb and linus.

[@kevincloonan9787]

how does Antonio always get in these perfect high stakes line ups on TV ! Theres not 1 player that can remotely out play him

[@lgr9638]

True some of these PokerGO events have had ridiculously fishy lineups.

[@stt5v2002]

Good advice about not taking deals from people who are better at deal making that you are. I don't think that Antonio should be faulted from offering an unfair deal. First of all, he suggested a round number and may not have instantly calculated the numbers in his head. But even if he did, think about what you are doing when you try to win at poker. You are trying to get your opponent to pay more than his hand is worth! The entire point of the game is to get the other player to take an unfair deal where he gives you more money that he would if he knew (and cared about) his exact equity. This situation was a verbal deal, which is not usual, but when the amateur had the nuts he did exactly the same thing by making an $18000 bet.

[@MrCarseallday]

10k is actually a pretty good deal. It is a mistake to think that 6k (the expected loss for Rodrock) is the right price to pay. If rodrock were risk neutral he’d be indifferent to taking a deal of 6k and playing out the hand. But the fact that he is eager to buy insurance from esfandiari implies he is risk averse. He is willing to pay a risk premium for that. Forgetting risk aversion for a second, if he wanted to maximize the expected growth rate of his bank roll, it’s conceivable he’d be willing to pay Esfandiari 8-10k. Depends on his bank roll though

[@HabibiGa1z]

i dont agree.. what antonio did was super fine, nothing wrong with it

[@tomprice4016]

Define "wrong."

[@HabibiGa1z]

from a moral aspect.. the guy is most likely a very wealthy businessman and he probably doesn't care.. also its not like antonio forced him or anything, he just made an offer

[@dietasse24]

Exactly ! Offering Deals that are plus ev for you is what poker is all about. You can't win money in poker without exploiting your opponents bad plays.

[@ShredHeadJHJ]

$6k would have been more fair.

[@matthiasp3225]

Yes, if you play against better players, you lose money one way or another. Even if you play against equal players because the casino gets a part. It's not like your doctor is suggesting you unnecessary services, that would be wrong.

[@ericknight2934]

I'm fairly sure he got paid double... 20k because he took the 10k out of his stack and not the pot... then antonio made the dealer count his stack (to be paid) AFTER he took the 10k out... so antonio paid 10k LESS on top of getting the 10k out of his stack

[@TLifeDailyVlogs]

Been dealing over a decade and I see this all the time and it is funny. Yet I am not a fan of it because it slows down the hands per hour and my bottom dollar on tips...but I hold my composure and just enjoy it for what it is. Entertainment whilst learning!

[@Grannyknockers]

It's pretty simple to calculate your odds in a case like this. 3 jack the only 3 outs. 8 cards out of deck leaves 44 behind. 3/44 is a little over 6%.

[@KrissKwaddFPV]

Poker is about exploiting opponents weaknesses. If deals are allowed in these games then exploiting the opponents lack of equity knowledge is totally fair. It's poker FFS! Antonio's offer was well within the spirit of the game.

[@checkmugged]

The 7% figure shown at the end does _not_ include the mucked cards. It is the rounded figure. The actual figure hovers just above 6.8%. I don't know why Doug would think otherwise. Most shows do not include the dead cards when showing the win % for the hands.

[@eoinydoyle2211]

checkmugged yeah, I'm a bit disappointed in Doug here

[@DefinitelyNotJoao]

Really good poker if anything. I don't see see how exploiting your opponent's lack of experience with deals is fundamentally different from exploiting their lack of skill.

[@joshuapatrick682]

3:19 i love analysis but lets be honest about this field and how much they care about profitable poker…im guessing the net worth of the room is over 10 figures combined so….

[@johncates812]

My thinking is the casual player might not be buying back in if he felts. So, paying a little extra to ensure you don't get runner runner'd might be worth it.

[@johniglesias9779]

I dont think its fair for you to critize Antonio for making this deal. Two grown men offered terms and accetped, because antonio was a winner in the deal, he should not be criticized. Your ethical bubble should not dictate other peoples credibility.

[@jaket6448]

i think its fair for him too. while youre right that two grown men made a deal and thats fine, doug is saying that antonio has a much better understanding of whats going on and knows hes getting a way better deal than he should be. antonio is smart enough to where he would still take the deal if it was 5k, 6k, etc.. so he has the ethical option to not take advantage of an amateur whos playing for fun. i dont think antonio is a bad guy for it.. but dougs advice is good that you shouldnt strike deals in this mans shoes.

[@ikenmijnkind]

7:54 Nouri bets 5.5k into a 10.7k pot.....So Doug tells us he bets a little less then half pot and would prefer if Nouri bets something like 5.5 to 6k. Right.....

[@Mitjitsu]

In this day and age it's not hard to whip out a phone and check your equity before getting into a negotiation. I keep an equity chart on my phone so would know I have a 6.5% of getting sucked out on. If you're another player at the table offering insurance the best time to do it is when you know you've folded their opponents outs. So you can offer something at or very close to the true equity. Knowing full well you've negotiated a highly favourable deal.

[@flex2125]

antonio the master angler/fandangler gets over on the recs...

[@mveronie]

Knowing equities and using it to your advantage over your opponent when the terms of the deal are clear to all parties is not in the spirit of the game of poker? Hmmm ... ok.

[@johningle1]

So why do they run out the hand if, in essence, Antonio backed out for 10k? They didn't show hands before making the deal, so what if Antonio hits trips and it turns out to win, (assuming the other guy had 2 pair)?

[@npip99]

I mean the man was literally offered 6k but declined because he didn't understand the concept of insurance and just wanted the pot now. Sometimes you have to just make the deals with the idiots, it's no worse than deciding to join a table because you know there are fish on it.

[@Joel-js2gk]

agreed 100%. Antonio didn't force or even pressure the other guy into anything at all. He offered a bad deal and it got accepted. If 2 people make an agreement, even when it objectively favours one side, there is nothing ethically wrong with it.

[@stanislavslavov5097]

"I take back what I've said about jack eight. I was wrong" That made my day. :) Thanks bud.

[@dochmbi]

You didn't consider the limp-reraise option for Nouri with the AhTh. I like using that play as a bluff with an amateur image, it always makes your opponents think you have Aces.

[@TheStayFlyGuy]

I feel like if you’re going to play in high-stakes game against pros, you should at least be able to calculate equities and their $ value relative to the pot.

[@HQpointofview]

I love Antonio and his skill set. He did take advantage of a recreational player but if that guy doesn't know what he's getting into when by sitting down with pros, that's his mistake.

[@danijelkucurski2180]

Hi, i m thinking to buy educa-poker course, but i look into his highstakesdb results and it seems that from januar 2016 up to now he broke even. can you show as his graf of bb won for 2016 and also for 2017 year

[@tomw.4255]

I think my fav hand is not str or royal or even ..well, AAJ - JA is pretty nice, or 4444, the best 4 OAK. But when 567 comes up, you got 89, then the turn is a 4. Such a sick hand.

[@nathanielmorgan3592]

Every vid of Antonio he's always doing that "pump fake" with the chips in his hands. Needs to be called out.

[@corbindalis]

Nathaniel Morgan I agree. That's a BS move

[@postflopper]

Was on high stakes poker, cant recall the season and episode. But it wasnt a pro, was an amateur erik rolex boneta that called him out for his angles.

[@somistyy]

Sorry, what time is this at, don;t feel like rewatching to look for it lol

[@drachenbarde]

where ?

[@stevenhir5528]

It is never an angle when you hear verbatim a decision he has NOT made. Go play more poker kid.

[@nighttrain9410]

Hey Doug! A little mistake @5.53 its actually called Backdoor Bangkok

[@tylerh2311]

Can someone plz explain Bills deal? Was he saying that if a jack doesn’t come on river the old man would give him 6k but if the jack did come he would give the size of the pot that he got sucked out on? So he would give him like 80k if the jack came?

[@adrianoalves20]

Sweet video! Love Poker Hands! Could you make one video explaining the pros and cons of running once, 2x, 3x and in whitch situations to do it?

[@soonerjman]

Where can I find this entire game? I know a gentleman at the table and would like to watch this match.....

[@fromtheinsides]

Not so hard to calculate your equity tho, dont need to be a "pro". Jack would save him, 3 outs. 3*2 equals 6% aprox

[@pokerdev218]

But of course one is already tabled face up...in V's hand.

[@fromtheinsides]

@@pokerdev218 6% and 4% not a big difference

[@mscolli3]

Did anyone notice he gave Antonio chips from his OWN stack? They were negotiating 10k from the pot - by giving him 10k that Antonio hasn't matched yet he actually gave Antonio 20k "from the pot" since Antonio didn't have to match it in the final tally.

[@Kingkia33]

I disagree with you last point Doug. Deal are a part of live games and rec players shouldn't have extra protection of even be sitting with pro players if they are bad enough to need your advice here. However, what made it a lil unethical for me is Antonio not matching Perks $6k offer and pretty much robbing him of the extra $4k there (not that he worked a better deal for himself than the equity would suggest. That in fact is an underrated skill of his in a live game). By the way did you see Bill Perkins sitting front row at the Rockets playoff game against the Warriors a couple weeks ago lol??

[@andrewl6136]

doug i want to ask you if you think its possible that sites such as ACR, IGNITION and other US sites could be running crypto mining in the background while users have open the software? the reason i ask is because i know that some non legal streaming sites mine crypto in the background while users watch movies and i thought why wouldn't a poker site do this as well?

[@lgr9638]

I think Perkins was kinda out of line too. If anybody were to initiate this conversation it should have been Antonio. Perkins did offer him insurance at $6k for the whole pot which was basically no juice with only the one jack being dead but Rodrock didn't mull it over enough. Doug was right though they don't know what cards are dead. Antonio's equity in the pot would only be around 4% with two jacks dead and 2% with only one live jack, which would've made his real equity in the pot around $1750-$3500, so he made out like a bandit here making a deal for $10k. Antonio has done some other kind of questionable things in the past (anyone else remember his pump fake versus Vanessa Selbst)? And its not like he really needed that $10k. He hustled an amateur more or less for kicks.

[@movieguy7398]

Years ago they used to do rebates like that to get back some of their equity. It was a hassle. ppl getting the wrong price etc. Thats why ppl just run it 2x 3x etc.

[@smwvikings44]

Darol is from KC. Sat behind him watching him in PLO, his wife said he profited 300k at this game.

[@johnohyuehan]

Fair play to Antonio for negotiating his way out- can't fault both gentlemen. They have an agreement and that's it.

[@peteneville698]

Can someone please explain what's going on? Rodrock raises but doesn't go all-in, Esfan calls claiming only to have a pair, yet the TV display wrongly shows it as a raise, enough to put Rodrock all-in then Rodrock turns his hand over still without actually being all-in and therefore with more betting to come. Why does this get overlooked in a video analysis, especially by someone that likes to talk so much? Esfan then asks "How much is it? before saying "go one time". Is there a cost to pay to the house to run it twice or more? Why doesn't the video comment on this? Why does Esfan have to chuck in a chip after that (which becomes two chips in the next shot, so I assume that other chip is Rodrock's). The negotiation itself is clear but is actually initiated by Perkins who isn't even in the hand - isn't that a rule-breach in many games, so why isn't it clarified whether his offer is legitimate or not? And why does Rodrock completely dismiss it? Does he assume he's not allowed to accept? Why isn't this analysed more instead of just making a sweeping generalisation about insurance, seeing as we are specifically told to pay attention to the negotiation? And what is the extra "you get the 20 or 30 here as well"? Then there is also the question about Rodrock paying out of his stack rather than the pot though as the hand isn't played out it seems irrelevant as the final amount is the same. It would be different if he paid Perkins the insurance and ran the cards - then there's a debate to be had. Lots to explain in the above instead of wasting all the discussion on the ethics of a completely plausible deal between two consenting players with different values attached to "jam today".

[@zackryan01]

Like others have said, I don't think there's anything wrong with what Antonio did. Doug, would your argument be that he should only take an amount of money that exactly equals his equity in the pot? Is 1 extra BB okay? How about 2, or 5? Point is, if your opponent wants to negotiate, they are opening themselves up to making a bad deal, and if you're in Antonio's shoes you should get as much as you can, just as you would in any other business negotiation. This sort of thing happens ALL THE TIME in the live tournament scene. I've only agreed to a chop one time, and when I did it, an ICM calculator said my stack was worth about $25.5K, and I ended up negotiating for a $31K payout. Was that scummy? The players remaining were all recreational, and they wanted to chop, and they were willing to pay me a premium to agree to the chop. I've seen instances where there were 3 or 4 way chops and the chip leader took FIRST PLACE MONEY! I say good for him. As long as you aren't deceiving the other person in some way, making +EV deals is fair game.

[@DOLARNICK]

Extremely instructive. I actually enjoyed the in depth thinking, maybe not by the players but certainly by Dp

[@Traumtheater0]

I don't know Rodrock. Does the old saying 'Beware of the speech' apply here or is he capable of a false tell?

[@joshuamitchell5530]

I hate situations like this when you’ve got a bunch of regs tryna bully a rec into doing something they’re clearly not comfortable with, then basically calling them stupid if you don’t do it.

[@emilepelletier8176]

Antonio needs to win what, like around 35% of the time to break even? Sometimes relatively short stacks make moves when they have drawing equity and a small pair, or something like A8s. It's a tough fold for Antonio really

[@phunkfarm]

Three interesting tidbits: Player publicly announces his mucked hole cards pre flop. (2 non J cards). Perkins also knows he didn't fold any J's. (Esfandiari may wrongfully assume Perkins folded a J due to his personal desire to be involved in the insurance policy given that Perkins only wins when a J doesn't hit.) Esfandiari got his $10k out of a pot that his own chips didn't match. Did we see AE match the all-in, then get his $10k or was it $10k from the existing pot with AE not needing to match the bet? What say we about these three little non-mentioned facts that make a huge difference in the math? THIS IS EXACTLY WHERE A PRO WOULD HOLD A HUGE ADVANTAGE over a recreational who would completely miss these critical facts.

[@GaryMillyz]

The old man seems like a pretty chill dude. But am I the only one who cannot believe that someone so easily swayed and so seemingly unaware of what's going on around is playing against these guys for those stakes??

[@matend8125]

antonio did exactly what the spirit of the game says

[@davemarnell8871]

I feel there is some huge implied odds when someone is all in. Risking a brand new buy in, for like $50k is easily worth putting off while pocketing 75k for an amuater. Playing huge stakes against much better players the goal is always not to rebuy.

[@JD0586]

If that's your goal in playing poker, might be time to pick a different game. Regardless of stake sizes or competition, I'd never sit down to a poker table if my goal was Not to rebuy. If that's a main concern or goal, a change of stakes should be in consideration. Just seems kind of counter productive to expect to win if you're playing with that mindset.

[@GeoffHarm]

12:49 "I'm offering less money!" Yeah but the hand isn't over if he makes the deal with you, scarfy.

[@SuperPraveenkumarpk]

How does it matter? if he gets insurance from Bill he'll get the pot regardless of outcome.

[@dimitrismaster]

BTW you are going to crush it if a live cash game course is created.Especially plo live low stakes where nobody folds pre.

[@TLifeDailyVlogs]

It is what it is! Once you sit down, don't plan on any friends at the table until your butt leaves that seat :)

[@imelfo3945]

The whole lot looks high. What game is this?

[@joshuapatrick682]

i love that Bobby Sura is still getting on televised poker shows to sit there and nit sweaters

[@den_525]

So if the equity is $6k... Rodrock doesn't want to get sucked out on (based on conversation Esfandiari seems luckier over him) so an extra 5% equity not so bad?

[@ilovebrandnewcarpets]

Disagree on the insurance take. Antonio didn't do it in a pushy way, he just offered it. I mean sure he's taking a little extra vig. BUT if the jack hits the river the old guy gets nothing. What would a fun player prefer? 75k or 0k? Insurance costs money.

[@YolkyPalky]

I guess the $19 to $29 a month model is over, now it's $1,000 bucks a course lol! I guess if you're already at those stakes, it's just a buyin or fraction thereof. Is that the market for this course or are 1/2 regs expected to pay $1k?

[@jolaz69]

Doug got the idea from Trump University

[@greennaugahyde7670]

How is 1k outrageous for a 1/2 reg?

[@YolkyPalky]

Maybe I should've said low-stakes grinders instead.

[@elohim9035]

+YolkyPalky he a pigeon

[@Glitch47278]

1k is pretty crazy for a 1/2 reg imo, best case scenario you're looking at several hundred hours of play to make it a break-even investment. 1/2 live is different as well in that you need to be more exploitative, ranges are a lot more variable and if you assume ranges incorrectly you're going to get annihilated. Not a relevant course for low stakes live play is my assumption.

[@harpoon2445]

I don’t agree with Doug’s last remark, as if Antonio’s offer was not in the good spirit of the game; the entire game is about trying to let the opponent make -EV moves. And second, given that Antonio’s opponent is not a pro and probably has a smaller poker bankroll, it is reasonable that the deal they end up with is +EV for Antonio. The pro only looks at long term averages, while the amateur is willing to pay to reduce variance.

[@Yaseen47]

Doug...why have you overlooked the fact that Bill Perkins spoke up in a pot he wasn't involved in... what the fuck is that about? People should NOT be doing this and I see this shit happen a lot in these games.... is it acceptable behavior now?!

[@jf5618]

Yaseen Chopra agree man...Perkins did the deal and Antonio jumped on the wagon! Still don’t agree that Antonio was wrong here and I’d have to assume (HAVE TO RIGHT??) that the dude does know the simple 3 Jacks x 2 on river = roughly accurate equity ;-)

[@joshp7762]

Doug are you only outing crypto scandals these days? Why aren't you helping Joey get the word out about ACR and the cheating scandal?

[@checkmugged]

What's the ACR cheating scandal?

[@joshp7762]

checkmugged watch joey ingrams videos. Serious matter for the poker community.

[@joshp7762]

Doug thx for doing your latest video to make people aware of all of this.

[@Nash9r]

The worst I saw was the hand between Guy Laliberte and David Benyamine at Hogh Stakes Poker. Benyamine really got lucky there because Guy did not care about the money.

[@carlgibson7850]

Doug "when I make deals it's fine but when others do, I get judgmental" Polk. Ps. I still love you Dougie Fresh

[@michaelangst6078]

It's not that bad. The fair value would be 6k, not 4 or 5 and that dude probably would rather give up 4k more than feel the sting of losing.. I know I would in that exact situation. The bad part about it Perkins offering him the exact deal for 6k. and him saying no. Now that's dumb

[@drewstand5055]

Anyone else Fast forward anytime Doug's little box pops up?

[@dbaumann25]

Yo what's up Doug. Good stuff as always. I'm a noob... But I keep hearing you speak of inline winnings??? What games are still around that you can play real cash?? I seen you play those tourneys and what not and I'm just confused

[@DJDanaScott]

Doug! Please do Poker Hands of some hands on "The Grand"- perhaps the greatest poker movie ever made. I'd love to see some analysis

[@canadianpoker83]

You need a classier opener. Have you tried, "What's up guys, Douglas Polk here?"

[@Johnny-cz2wv]

How are you this fine evening gentlemen, Douglas Polk here?

[@canadianpoker83]

No that does not work, because at least 1% of his viewers are women.

[@Wahlen1]

Please make a video on the last hand on partypoker 5000€ when isildur call down with k6! sick hand

[@Glitch47278]

Offering bad deals and having them accepted is absolutely in the "spirit of the game." Just my opinion.

[@tylermassey5431]

has anybody thought to broadcast poker with the percentages shown from the players perspective without factoring in dead cards?

[@branchtana315]

So he's saying Antonio angle shot someone at the poker table? No way....I guess next he's going to tell us that water's wet.

[@JeffBoski]

A cheetah never changes his spots

[@pokerbruh]

Jeff Boski you seen the new Joe Ingram vid? Most of it is very speculative(and a little over the top imo) but the point about late reg players all getting seated together opens up the door for all kinds of problems

[@bayrock1337]

poker bruh Don't play on a client that can't fix such simple issues..

[@pierrearr]

Jeff Boski a cheatah

[@rascallyrabbit717]

but it can roll in the mud from time to time

[@wen496]

85200:100x6.82%=5810.64 was his hand worth in money to be exact

[@snak9742]

What I've always wanted to know is: what pokersite do you recommend?

[@sewktbk]

Not often the case Doug, but I have to completely disagree with your last comment about how offering bad deals to recreational players is not in the spirit of the game. when you think about it, this whole game and the betting during each hand is purely a series of consecutive micro deals you are making with opponents as your are playing, and the whole point of improving your game and gaining an edge on weaker players is to make all those deals better for you than for villain everytime you can. And if thats acceptable in the form of bets, raises, calls and folds, then philosophical consistence dictates that its also acceptable in this specific case. There is nothing different in terms of morality and ethics between both.

[@ashliski]

I do have to disagree slightly. I don’t think Antonio done anything wrong. He never tried to claim that $10k was his equity. He just said he’d take $10k, but didn’t try to say that was the fair equity. The older guy wanted security and was willing to make a -ev play for it. Still should of just gave Perky $6k instead!

[@mariag8543]

doug polk setting the cash-game bar. im buying!!

[@michael2305]

J8 cmon... its deffo a top10 hand if ure a luckbox.

[@jamesstevenson3116]

hate how they never have percentages right.. kings 4% and a 10 is 6%... kings with a runner runner straight and a better full house draw than a 10... is better :X

[@howardtreesong4860]

I don’t mind Antonio making the offer. The other guy can just say ‘no’, and that’s it.

[@slavetrader1489]

how is this even allowed?...it wasnt even a heads up pot...wasnt the other old guy in the pot on the flop?

[@jakobyuksel7420]

10 card stud flips had me crackin up

[@Str8Raiser]

It takes no time at all to figure Antonio's equity here absent knowledge of the other players' mucked cards. The rule of 4 and 2 comes into effect, as always, netting an easy answer of 6% with only the river to come and 3 outs. A better answer is 2.25%/out, which is why they show 7% on the televised feed. It's not that hard. As for Antonio's offer, I have no issue with it at all. It is not his job to watch out for the other players' interests. The old man could have tried to negotiate a better deal or simply let the cards run. For my money, when you call an 8.5xBB raise preflop holding J8, you're already neck deep in speculation mode. Why you would accept a deal that give away any of your equity once you flop the nuts makes no sense if you're going into the hand gambling in the first place. TLDR: Antonio did nothing wrong. The old man should understand the game better if he's gonna swim with those sharks.