Magma Pressurizing: Will Current Eruption Increase OR New Vents Open? Geologist Analysis

Join geology professor Shawn Willsey as he discusses the latest data and news of Iceland's ongoing eruption near Grindavik.
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[@shawnwillsey]

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[@karenrobertsdottir4101]

Translation note: "added the soda" - the word for soda is "gos", which means "eruption" :)

[@PatriciaCox-bg2mm]

​ ❤@@karenrobertsdottir4101

[@LizWCraftAdd1ct]

Thank you Amanda-Jo and Shawn.

[@nitawynn9538]

It will be interesting to see if a new eruption affects the present cone’s activity. Volcano watching requires patience!

[@vipertwin175]

Thanks for the Update Shawn, your channel is one of the best for any and all volcano news ♥️

[@shawnwillsey]

Wow, thank you. Much appreciated.

[@marymachunis3778]

Really appreciate you taking time out of your schedule to update the team.

[@raymondheckard234]

Shawn you need to look close at the GPS stations Grindavík Vestur (GRVV), Grindavík Miðja (GRVM),Þorbjörn (THOB) , Austurvegur (AUSV), Grindavík (GRIV), and Vestan við möstur. With the earthquake activity under Grindavík, and the fact Grindavík is now in the red zone now, might indicate the fact a vent might open in the Grindavík city area, as all of the GPS in the city are is a very vertical inflation line. the GPS stations in Grindavík with an up rising trend and the fact the GPS stations between Svartsengi and Grindavík .

[@JanetClancey]

Thanks Shawn I love that everyone is learning from this unique situation

[@stephenrickstrew7237]

Thanks for your expertise..and Your Time …!

[@ZacharyStrauss-ib7tl]

Hi Shawn and everyone

[@zainmudassir2964]

Hello

[@joane8651]

Thank you Prof Shawn and your assistants, I never thought I would learn so much about volcanoes, and that it would be so mesmerizing!

[@anniehamilton-gibney9691]

Thanks for the update 👍

[@joannekellam191]

Thanks for the update! So interesting to see the progression and where it goes from here!

[@robbirobin9657]

Thank you, I am enjoying watching x

[@reekoreeko1857]

thank you shawn, it really is a "cute spatter cone" too. I am wondering why grindavik appears to have a lot of traffic for an abandoned town.

[@bluewolfwalking]

Cute spatter cone-😂

[@peachBloom]

There are 20 houses occupied on the west end of Grindavik.

[@reekoreeko1857]

Really? Thank you for the info. I did wonder if the full story is in the media.

[@bluewolfwalking]

Thank you, Shawn. I have an acquaintance who has a long layover in Iceland next month, and I am encouraging her to ask about safe viewing of the volcano. I gave her your KZbin information so she can see what’s up on your channel.

[@NarrowRoad110]

Another informative update. Have fun on your trip. Thank you Shawn.

[@sheilagraham8543]

Thanks for the update Shawn (and Amanda-Jo. Have a great trip to Iceland - it should be an exciting time!

[@nolongerlistless]

Have a wonderful journey to and stay in Iceland, Shawn! Thanks for the update!

[@starquilts]

Another month of fascinating updates! TY for all your and Amanda Jo's efforts to keep us up to date.

[@virginiaserna1951]

Thank you for your updates

[@vladimirtodt6460]

Eruption starts very soon (or be more intensive in current cone). I see pattern on Swartsengi GPS data. Befor eruption uplift stops for short time and some a few measuring GPS points are up and after this some "treshold" in GPS measuring eruption starts. Now this pattern appears again with other actual GPS data.😳

[@raymondheckard234]

Shawn on Defensive berm 12, they actually have melt in the berm and it had broken through the berm half way up just north of the overtop about 25 to 40 meters..

[@susiesue3141]

Thanks for your update! Great information as always! Much appreciated! 😊

[@mistypuffs]

Thank you for your highly informative updates - not to mention your other interesting geology videos. Your students are really lucky they’ve got such a good teacher 👍😆🏆

[@ChrisAnn...]

I had the privilege of having a layover at the Keflavik airport coming back from Denmark. The pilot hugged the coast coming in, and I was able to get really great pictures of the volcano and of Grindavik. I was surprised by the size of the lava flow in the area. It was truly an amazing to witness and very exciting to see from the plane.

[@DorisCoble]

Grindavik is so done for. Wish I could say better news. Even if the town gets destroyed, I hope the people and animals are at least safe. It feels like the beginning to a natural disaster movie that progressively gets worse and worse. Stay safe Shawn and everyone else! It's truly scary that where you were just standing a few minutes ago could be lava erupting in the air in iceland.

[@jansunner7199]

Thank you for you podcast. I hope you can continue Among the growing "competition" it standing out for its quality, depth, presentation quality and learning experience.

[@jimgraves4197]

Thank you Shawn, I enjoy your insight into this event and look forward to seeing what you get up to when you visit Iceland soon.

[@jansutton2717]

Thanks for the update!

[@marksinger3067]

Hi Shawn..hope you keep doing what you do and anything else you choose..

[@justhim1710]

Peace ✌🏻

[@permanentmagnet]

Proffessional and informative as allways. Thanks a lot.

[@Kangaroo_Caught]

Shawn, Thanks heaps for your continued focus on Iceland and thanks to your helpers, particularly Amanda Jo. After watching this video, I watched the MBL camera view you showed at the start. Watching full screen on my TV, I particularly noticed the intense heat haze above the spatter cone on the upwind side. (Left of screen in that view now.) While in daylight the cone isn't as spectacular as in the dark, I felt that this showed just how intense the heat in the crater is.

[@MrBubba311]

Thank you for the update. Always interesting.

[@jfmezei]

FINALLY ! you are heading to Iceland with your toolkit to fix the mafunctining lava pumps and restore full flow at the lava fountain! If I were Iceland, I would complain bitterly about the slow service. That lava fountain has been exhibiting problens with flow for a while and you'd have expected the geologist with the contract to fix ot to have been on site within 24 hours 🙂 BTW, a few years ago, there was a video from a local who followed the then eription who filmed tourists from France roasting marshmallows over slowly flowing lava ! Hope you can do that too !

[@sueellens]

Thank you for your time! 😊😊

[@avanii5101]

Thank you for all the updates you've been putting out, I really enjoy them a lot and find them very educational. It's amazing we can all watch this play out in real time and see the data too. Really hope no new fissures open to the south.. I'll be going to Iceland in a little over a week and honestly can't wait to see the island and its geologic wonders myself!

[@hardrockgirl5844]

Thank you. Great update! Just about to go over to your live now 😊

[@justmyopinion99]

Another option - the magma below ground has found a seam off the main magma chamber where there is room due to porosity and/or compressibility of existing material. That may keep the uplift from happening, or let it slow down, while magma continues to flow in and eventually to pressurize, leading to a later, bigger and maybe displaced eruption from the current vents.

[@robbinb12]

Hello from Los Angeles! Been watching closely because we are heading there in 10 days for a week and hoping it doesn’t impact our trip too much. Glad to hear you are as well and don’t think it will. Will stay tuned. Thanks!

[@kateclover874]

thanks for the wait-and -see update.

[@annettefilt]

Thanks for the update 🥰

[@jenniferlevine5406]

Thanks for the very informative update!

[@OneCatShortOfCrazy]

Thank you for your updates!!

[@deniseroy811]

I always look forward to your recap on the eruption near Grindavik

[@xwiick]

Thanks for all of your hard work man!

[@karentrimmer]

"Cute little crater." Is that a geological term?

[@olkafasolka69]

Tha k you so much for the update! ❤

[@saarmuller3392]

Thank you again, I love these updates even following the websites myself. I may have missed it, but could you comment on the white deposit on the part of the scatter cone above the output channel. It seems to have formed when the wind was blowing towards the camera for a day or so.

[@johnwelbourn3811]

Thanks Prof, interesting stuff. Whatever happens, let's hope there's minimal human impact.

[@valoriel4464]

Thx Prof ✌🏻 n Amanda Jo.

[@user-sg4ei3vv2t]

Thank you. Very much appreciated.

[@gonemadinnz]

Thanks Shawn

[@IXSEVEN9]

A clear explanation and a succinct video, thank you!

[@KatlaJokulsdottir]

@shawn, about 16:25 "the soda" is the eruption. Icelandic "gos" is something that "gushes out".... whether that's a bubbly drink or lava from a volcano. (in case of the volcano it's often called eldgos, from eldur=fire)

[@petyae]

Hi Team ! Thanks for the update! Have a great May 1st! 🇧🇬✨💗🌹

[@katesommerville7217]

Thank you for another informative video 😊

[@omie5763]

Thank you.

[@8thday204]

Re the plumbing to the existing spatter cone I understood from a theory proposed a couple of weeks ago there is a conduit of fresh magma rising up that both links into the upper magma zone but also carries on past up the existing eruption. The magma from the eruption is therefore a blend of older magma and fresh magma from below. Quite how this mixing/bypass happens was not speculated on but maybe the two routes have similar back pressures. It's all very fascinating and I'm sure we woild all dearly love to know more about the dynamics. Anyway, thanks so much Shawn for this update, I'm always super impressed by your clarity when explaining stuff !

[@bluemist4326]

Rising magma enters under the chamber, so the bottom layer is more fluid.The current exit is nearer the top, off to the side. Mixing takes too long, but the old magma could completely run out to get to the newer stuff below. The rising magma could also create a new direct route in any direction as detected by big earthquake swarms.

[@user-pn8it7xm2w]

Thanks again for the fab information. Di…Cumbria

[@jarredsdad]

Thanks!

[@causewaykayak]

This is using data to inform mitigation. Very well managed so congratulations to the authorities and citizrns there. ALWAYS an education !!

[@forestnymph8401]

Shawn, consider doing a video on the Campi Flegeri (sp?) in Italy.

[@christinedaly2694]

Hi from New Zealand love yr information very informative thank you

[@shawnwillsey]

Thanks for watching!

[@45KevinR]

When I was looking at the video feed from Monday 29th evening it was noticeable that the amount of visible splashing (upwards) varied a lot from hour to hour. As I recall at 8-9pm it was very subdued, while at 10-11pm it was quite bubbly.

[@freyalarsen6233]

A 3rd option is missing: the lava flow from the depth can decrease, which would mean mean no new vent and no increase in the current erruption. Decrease in the flow from the depth would also explain the change in the inflation rate / uplift.

[@gilles111]

12:47 the increased seismic activity isn't really visible in EQ in the area but the seismic stations in the area show some increased tremors in the Low Frequency (0,7 Hz) heliplots. Think that's what IMO want to say with that line.

[@8thday204]

Further to my previous comment about the route up to the surface from the lower magma chamber your suggestion that the flow directly up to the eruption might be constricted in some would explain why some of the fresh new magma is forced into the upper chamber.

[@mikeladley5149]

If the system is pressurized even with ongoing venting through the spatter cone, my guess would be some larger earthquakes prior to a larger eruption. I'm leaning towards a more southerly vent and overflow of the berms? The continuous pulling of the two plates causing the rift valley over time appears due for a larger welcoming ceremony? 😉

[@brucedymock6635]

Be interesting to see who is right thanks

[@brianholmes6574]

Thanks for your videos Shawn. They are very informative. Could you please answer a question from a layman . If the ground is "inflating" and rising up to 100mm how is it that the buildings ( eg power station ) do not crack and crumble ?

[@susannell544]

I read somewhere that one of the North Volcanoes got clogged a long time ago.

[@poppawolf26]

Aloha from Makaha.....Kilauea continues to be an interesting development.....lots of small earthquakes...

[@sandrine.t]

Cool :) I was actually hoping to hear your take on the gps data and the more or less "flat" segments over the last couple of days, meaning inflation has stopped (at least for now), so thank you @shawnwillsey for another concise and informative update! And thanks as always to @MandieJo for her help :)

[@Selah-dl3ef]

Might not,Might could We just got to watch 😉It is as it will be.Thanks Shawn🌹

[@keithdavis938]

21:27 - “this is not explosive” just as a lava fountain appears :-)

[@rolandbaranov3546]

Thanks Shawn for the videos and teaching. Soon after the eruptions the GPS data showed a big drop on inflation even though not much of lava had escaped yet which makes me think large part of the inflation is done by gases and not to pure lava accumulation. Could it be that the current inflation is due to an accumulation of gases forming a big bubble while the draining dike is draining lava from a deeper level? Thanks

[@joecarter152]

I’m late again ! Been pretty busy working here on our farm planting and clearing

[@julianBullitt-zk9ch]

What is the total volume of magma entering the chamber 5 km deep adding the eruptive lava in addition to that causing up lift. I know this adds more uncertainty, but is the rate pretty constant since October?

[@karloschambers661]

Quick QUESTION Shawn... What are the whitish deposits on the outer wall of the spatter cone? Great updates as always!

[@crystals1117]

Sulphur

[@morkusmorkus6040]

​@@crystals1117Would sulphur deposits be more yellow?

[@shawnwillsey]

Sulfur, gypsum, and zeolite minerals.

[@bjorndebakker]

@shawnwillsey, is it know what kind of rocktype is beneath the powerplant. Is there a possibility that nothing happens ??

[@johnnypoker46]

It appears to me that there was a short levelling off of the GPS rise/fall data for Svartsengi and the Blue Lagoon from April 10-14, then inflation resumed right after that, so I'm wondering how much we can read into the current levelling off at the end of April?

[@morkusmorkus6040]

We can read a lot more into it now vs early Apr since now the ground has risen above the level of the previous eruptions, as it has done with all the previous eruptions.

[@justmyopinion99]

Question for the expert - have geologists ever found anything interesting trapped at the very bottom of an ancient lava flow, from the landscape the flow spread out onto?

[@carolynvranjes3396]

Are they taking down the power plant? I see it is a geothermal power plant. With all the earthquakes will it be unstable for future use? I lived in the red brike dorms at CSI in 78-80, at that time they were looking at heating the dorm with geothermal heat. Did they ever do that? The drilling was near the dorm on the other side of the stearm bed.

[@kennycarter5682]

can you do a video on Raung in Indonesia, i been seen some of it, and i got a feeling a much bigger blast is coming

[@morkusmorkus6040]

Bigger than the one yesterday?

[@kennycarter5682]

@@morkusmorkus6040 ya a lot bigger.

[@jollygiant]

In the data charts, is each data point a daily average or a snapshot value?

[@susannell544]

Yellowstone has had a swarm for a week. Steamboat Geyser is flying high on graph .....use to stay at 4. Now stays near 6.

[@lisat9707]

Lol alrm for live stream goes off in 5 mins. Gonna watch in high speed😅

[@pascalekarger7527]

Hi Shawn Enjoy it I will leave on July 6th and will stay 3 weeks.

[@poppawolf26]

flow rate is so small....I'm surprised that this eruption continues.....

[@alexb.1382]

Is there any data like temperature or pressure from the thermal power plant?

[@shawnwillsey]

No change there. The georhermal system is much shallower and unaffected.

[@nickraynor2434]

The way this is all going is very interesting, Has this sequence of events ever happened in Hawaii ?

[@morkusmorkus6040]

I doubt it. They're very different systems.

[@brookejacko7231]

In his last video he read a message from someone he knows who worked in Hawaii who said in a similar situation there where inflation continued while an eruption was still occurring it lead to a new fissure opening

[@tracyjohnson2992]

Hi Professor Willsey, I have a couple of questions and i have another scenario that could explain why this eruption has gone on much longer than the others and doesn't really show any signs of stopping anytime soon. Shouldn't we be calling this a volcano now? It has its magma inside the cone and it seems it has no effect on the land rise and the addition of more magma. In Strata Volcanos they have their own chamber which is higher than if it was in a chamber below like in the crater series with the fissures. It is starting to look like this is going to be a volcano all on its own. Here's my theory, I think with the magma intrusion that happened just over a month ago before this eruption i think if my theory is correct that it is being fed magma from a lower reservoir that is fed by a deeper pressure than the previous eruptions if the pressure is coming deeper inside the earths crust then there has to be another magma reservoir that is fueling the magma chamber that is charging for another eruption Is it possible professor that something like this could happen that essentially there is the reservoir that has been there since the magma intrusion on November 2023 that has fed the magma chamber under Svartsenji Power Plant and the Blue Lagoon. Could there be another reservoir that is now feeding this eruption on its own and the magma chamber that is now full and pressurizing be a separate eruption potential just like we have seen before this current eruption. Something is definitely different with this one. Could this be the start of a new Volcano? Possibility or not? I look forward to your comment on this Professor.

[@morkusmorkus6040]

Not even going to read all that because you start of with something quite dumb so I cant imagine the rest of it. It has ALWAYS been a volcano and has always been called a volcano since the very second maga reached/breached the surface.

[@susannell544]

The fissures could be where old Faultlines are ,it's possible ,is what I've read. But there is no way of knowing. North fissure,South fissure, Grindavik,Any way of knowing Grindavik was next? No.

[@kava160]

the lava already went over the berm, was it yesterday or day before even?

[@dennisc7589]

It seems space is running out to hold lava.

[@user-rj7im7fd8h]

Will the harbor at Grindavik grow as the graven(sp?) sinks? At this point, is this leading to the demise of the town but the improvement of the harbor? If this is true, what sort of time are we talking about? (Decades? Centuries?)

[@riverAmazonNZ]

Graben

[@mollypenwhistle7918]

Wonder why they aren’t increasing the wall height?

[@Darisiabgal7573]

If the fissures open up below an existing laterally magma flow then new eruptions can move laterally on the existing, which may have already happened as long as hydrostatic pressure is maintained, once pressure is released you will see clouds of steam rise above the new eruptive site. A more likely scenario is the southern most fissures will reopen because now you’ve got 10 to 20 meters now of elevation to deal with. Any cracks that open under the active bed are going to gum up with degassed mafic lava. We can estimate the pressure differential between the southern field as 20 to 30 meters times 9.8 g times density which is about 1.5 to 2 mt per meter cubed. So that’s roughly 40 to 60,000kg at 9.81 m/s or about 400 to 600 kPa and an Atmosphere is roughly 100 kPa so about 4 - 6 atm of pressure. So the lava would need to be considerably hotter to degas under those layers. Unable to degass will decrease movement to the surface. The problem is that spatter-cone keeps rising and so does that skinned lava field and that supersedes the rift field of previous eruption except those in the south. They could alleviate the pressure if they produce a canal in the current field traveling east of grindavik to the sea by removing the solidified part at the end of the flow field. But since they have already abandoned grindavik for any future development I guess it doesn’t matter, it’s not worth the risk. If you could coordinate a couple of backhoe and some front loaders it might work.

[@perstaffanlundgren]

I have been wondering why they dont start digging a trench upstream side the over flowing berms, move the lava material up on the burm and cooling it with sea water to totally solidify it and keep doing lifts of lava stone on the burm ,if a fast flow /increased scenario should acure the shannel dug should be able to lead the flow along the outside of the burm down towards the coastal road and into the sea. Or the slow lava chould be alowed to go over the top side of the burm, be cooled with sea water, and then a ditch could be dug on the upstream side using the cooled of burm lava as a working platform for the equipment. On westmana islands the harbour was saved by" simply hosing down" the lava front with big amount of sea water. The lava formed a new land mass that actually made the harbour better. Sadly the town was mostly destroyed by the lava.

[@forestnymph8401]

Does the increased pressure really equate to more magma or could it be just gasses and would gas pressure result in something different?

[@Darisiabgal7573]

@@forestnymph8401 When the gas is depressurized it does work, and it works to lift the magma to higher heights, lifting the magma away from the riser and creating surface lava, which means more magma can flow behind it. This helps the system to keep moving along. If the magma is trapped under a thickened viscous flow field then it cannot release as much gas and apply that to work being done to rise the magma. We shall see what’s going to happen.

[@Darisiabgal7573]

@@perstaffanlundgren Agreed, but I would not compromise the end of the berm I would stop at the center end of the flow field and work my way to the nearest hospot adjacent to the berm. Eventual the backhoe would need to come up above but not on the field since it cannot operate on top, and the only way to do that is on top of the Bern. And as you remove the obstruction to E = MGH that lava will want to dance with the back hoe, and the hoe and lava are incompatible for any length of time so it cannot stay below in “hot” areas. The reasoning here is that is to get the lava motion vectors pointed orthogonal with respect to the town. If you get the lava to close to the town it will simply fan out into the town as its expands so you need to a margin of safety. Also, i’de be willing to bet there is not a backhoe in the entirety of Iceland that has Air-conditioning.🤣

[@robertlee3778]

It is interesting to see how the surface is able to rise higher, without an eruption (i.e., eruption occurs only when the surface has risen higher than previous elevation). Hmm. Just an interesting observation.

[@morkusmorkus6040]

He has talked about and explained that a lot already.