Managing risk in complex projects (2023)

In this completely updated presentation, David Hillson explains the unique challenges of complexity, and describes a new way to address emergent risk in complex projects - combining Futures Thinking with multi-level adaptive resilience.
Presented in November 2023 for the special International Project Management Day 2023 online conference hosted by IIL (www.iil.com/).

[@Risk-Doctor]

Comment from IPM Day attendee: "Very good and informative presentation!"

[@Risk-Doctor]

Comment from IPM Day attendee: "Thank you for an excellent presentation on managing risk in complex projects."

[@Risk-Doctor]

Comment from IPM Day attendee: "Great Presentation with Great TIPS!"

[@Risk-Doctor]

Comment from IPM Day attendee: “Thank you for an excellent and well-articulated presentation on managing risks in complex projects. Emergent risks are not usually understood, and this presentation helps us to be adaptive to address them as they arise.”

[@Risk-Doctor]

Comment from IPM Day attendee: "Very informative presentation. The section on Project Continuity Management was very educational. Thanks!"

[@Risk-Doctor]

Comment from IPM Day attendee: “Excellent talk, with practical insights to manage risks in complex projects. The 'Project Continuity Management' idea is brilliant.”

[@Risk-Doctor]

Comment from IPM Day attendee: “Dear Dr. David Hillson - your talk is so engrossing and with tons and tons of information. Really thankful for such a wonderful presentation Sincere thanks.”

[@Risk-Doctor]

Comment from IPM Day attendee: "Love the presentation. Learned lots about complex risk management, and how to tackle it."

[@Risk-Doctor]

Comment from IPM Day attendee: "Thank you. This was very helpful for complex multi-year program I’m managing. Love the concept of emerging risks."

[@Risk-Doctor]

Comment from IPM Day attendee: "Wow! The Risk Doctor delivered again, big time! Many useful tips throughout this presentation."

[@Risk-Doctor]

Comment from IPM Day attendee: "Very enlightening presentation on Risk Management..."

[@Risk-Doctor]

Comment from IPM Day attendee: "I recently started working as a PMI-RMP, and this presentation gave me several interesting ideas to develop my functions. Thanks a lot!"

[@Risk-Doctor]

Comment from IPM Day attendee: "Great introduction of foundational concepts of Futures Thinking and Complexity. The presenter provides a linear user-friendly explanation of the methodology and logically justifies why it makes sense to use this Project Continuity Assurance mechanism. Would appreciate a second round with a couple of case studies with examples of the successful application of the methodology and the key challenges identified so far in its adoption."

[@goransimic-pcbt9336]

The best and clearest story telling about project risk mgt I’ve ever heard/seen. Thank you!

[@Risk-Doctor]

Thanks Goran, I appreciate your positive and encouraging feedback.

[@lashima8593]

learned a lot from your presentation, thanks very much

[@Risk-Doctor]

You're welcome Lashi, I'm glad to hear that you found this presentation useful.

[@JFAChannel]

Hi, my name is Cahyo from Jogjakarta, Indonesia! According to ISO 31000, risk is defined as the "effect of uncertainty on objectives." When I create an "ACTIVITY," that activity has an objective. I need to identify risks that affect the objective of that activity. How can I differentiate between risks that affect the "objective of the activity" and risks that affect the activity itself? Sometimes, we fear potential problems that might arise in the future regarding the activity, but not the objective. How can I differentiate between these two types of risks?

[@Risk-Doctor]

Hi Cahyo, thanks for your question. I don't think you need to differentiate between these two. We undertake an activity in order to achieve something (the objective). So any uncertainty that affects our ability to perform or complete the activity will also affect whether the objective is achieved. In fact, in the end they are the same thing. I hope this makes sense. Also I see that you talk about "potential problems that might arise in the future". It is important to remember that the concept of risk also includes upside as well as downside. Not all risks are threats (potential problems). Some risks are opportunities (potential benefits). The risk process must manage both - minimise threats and maximise opportunities in order to optimise achievement of objectives.