Mario Kart 64 - Worst Item Luck Ever

[@Kosmicd12]

So bad the cpus drove like 2 rainbow road laps with lightning zaps

[@ryanh361]

Ok

[@mricci07]

69 likes

[@itbeleslie]

Hi there! Mathematician here! Abney didn’t get red shells until the 40th attempt together with the fact that there’s a 1/5 chance of getting red shells (according to Abney @2:12) means the odds of this (the first instance of red shells appearing on the 40th try) is: (4/5)^39 • (1/5) Which is about a 0.00332306998946228968225951765070086144% chance of happening.

[@quentind1924]

Wouldn’t the result be more pertinent if we remove the final 1/5 ? Like we are trying to see what’s the provability to not have red shells 39 times in a raw (so the probability to get this or worse) If i took a random number between 1 and 100 000 and i get 31, i don’t want the probability to get 31 but the probability to get a number that low. If it was 30 it would’ve been the same, but what you are saying is that it was 1/100 000 to get exactly 31

[@SaltPyramids]

this means you are now officially karmically due to hit the kalimari desert fence clip :)

[@vibby1004]

Pog lets goooo

[@tony3598]

Abney got a one in 46,100 possibility. Quite "Lucky"

[@jonc5522]

those are about the same odds as the triple weathertenko, no?

[@tony3598]

@@jonc5522It's an one in 64,000 chance. (40 x 40 x 40 = 64,000 chance) Plus, you have a 2.5% chance of hitting a Weathertenko. Just a 17,900 difference.

[@arunabhthakuria1731]

@@jonc5522 There isn't a definitive "chance" of hitting a 3/3 weathertenko, since it's all skill. Recently, his hitrate has been higher than it was since he's originally hit it, so it's different, but I don't think it would be something that you should necessarily use to calculate the odds.

[@tony3598]

@@arunabhthakuria1731 Your right. Ever since Abney hit his first 3/3 Weathertenko, he's been getting it at an ever more frequent pace.

[@SoshiTheYoshi]

SHOCKINGLY bad RNG, huh? I’m getting blue shelled aren’t I?

[@abney317mk]

Might have to rename the video to that

[@stigmaoftherose]

@@abney317mk do it

[@jopahui2001]

20 lightings. Exactly as predicted.

[@zioncoleman3646]

That just hurts! All of those Stars and lightning bolts and it couldn't give you Red shells until it was too late. :(

[@doctorphrog]

He is just using the “reverse-Dream” hack.

[@SteRDLK]

40 items before red shells and still wins the race...

[@penguinmcswaggn2936]

Got that anti-dream luck

[@ricky99la]

The odds of something like this ever happening again. Is basically NEVER. 😅

[@Ifakojesfd]

This is the opposite of dream

[@KingofArts_F19]

How many lightning bolts did you got before having red shells ? Abney : yes

[@95TurboSol]

Can certain circumstances change the outcome of which items you get? It's like something malfunctioned!

[@k4l3b04]

No, its just RNG Edit: i just found that it isnt just RNG: beckabney.com/mk64/items.php

[@derewreck]

He probably should have driven around the normal way. Lol

[@Dolphins-ov5oe]

They must have patched the game

[@Dr_xD_]

Did not get triple shrooms either btw!

[@dntn31]

You'd be unbeatable in multiplayer.

[@hahaphd6856]

Look on the bright side, at least it wasn't 20 BadShrooms

[@Jack_Crit]

Lol Imagine this luck when your a casual player and don't know whats happing during your playthrogh

[@Agent5061]

I've never gotten 5 in a row lightnings. Gotten 4 once . Stars I've gotten 4 times lots. Feels good when you playing catch up though

[@SuperNickid]

@Beck Abney: You did incorrect testing and this is because you did not know, Mario kart 64 if you stop the item early it does not go with RNG anymore it is called time hit item depending on your position, for example lightning and power star can be uptain in 2nd place only if you time hit them if you let the randomizer chose then it will go by RNG, since you stay in 8th place the time hit is not as precise for the better item, but the tripple red shell will appear more often in 8 th place if you just let the roullette go on its own, since the reason you getting anything except red shell it is because your time hitting does item by stopping it early. A speed runner that is always first place and stay first place in a grand prix situation in mario kart 64 says to stop the item early to always get a single mushroom and he confirm the mechanic of time hit, and in some case he need to time hit a banana bunsh in first place to affect what the cpu item are.

[@Espik_23]

Reverse Mario Karted

[@boomerbear7596]

Wow! This is the first time I've ever seen somebody pull this much lightning in Mario Kart and it just happens to be a bad thing in this case.

[@DaveChurchill]

Is the RNG seed based on anything else other than just 1/5? For example is there a really bad frame you can enter the level that affects it?

[@abney317mk]

beckabney.com/mk64/items.php

[@SamuelMK_]

0:25 MK7 WWs be like

[@arunabhthakuria1731]

I suppose that day was International Yellow Appreciation day/

[@kate2582]

But the best man ever

[@arunabhthakuria1731]

abneyMyles

[@andrescube64]

That just sucks I feel bad for you

[@guest3988]

Never seen that before lol

[@robertoluccini]

Should've put a seizure warning in the title

[@dznutskong]

Has someone found the odds of this yet?

[@hahaphd6856]

In the description

[@dznutskong]

​@@hahaphd6856 Probably should've checked that in the first place, thank you for pointing that out!

[@bowserjjumetroid3645]

_I was there......_ God, that was funny XD

[@morf301]

Probability of this happening is 0.0033% ! (4/5^39 * 1/5)

[@TF2Starlight]

Can u convert to a fraction

[@morf301]

@@TF2Starlight 33 / 1000000, or 1/30303

[@JoeDan54]

What were you trying to do?

[@Syntherios]

He needed triple red shells in order to do the shortcut. The game had other plans.

[@marioskywalker7862]

Para que se supone que sirve??

[@omnitone]

nintendo game design

[@plumebrisee6206]

You should know that in MK64 ,you can choose your item (You can stop the roulette when you press the item button) ,you just messed up your timing

[@abney317mk]

When you stop the roulette it randomly selects an item. The images in the roulette don’t make a difference

[@mitzuca_pan853]

let's say this was "bad" luck?

[@oppa.24]

Odds 0,013% or 1:7500

[@vb6427]

hahahaha

[@LTJ4CK]

Omg ahahaha