Math Hacks - Calculating Your Edge - Your Most Useful Tool

[@00tatsuchen]

Bro thank you 🙏🏾 I love sports betting and try to do as much research as possible for my own “ edge “ and I’ve always heard people say “ you have to have an edge against the sports books “ now I finally do thank you ! Aw man you don’t know how good And grateful I feel right now.

[@henrybogle8437]

Possibly the most essential video of your series. Will spend the 2022-23 football season learning these equations rote. Thanks for the content CJ!

[@davidsavali7150]

Can you please find an edge of decimal odds and if yes please demonstrate sir,thank you so much.

[@rikopusgamblus2643]

Thanks again, Mr. Andrews.

[@ss-dr2el]

So simple when you explain it that way.

[@DavidKittrell-zz9vn]

but how do you determine the original probability percentage? is there a quick way to research probability to get a consistent, accurate number?

[@HerbertEllis-v8h]

Where do you get the percent to win

[@BeattheHouseSports]

Valuable Vid Cap! Easy to memorize conversions and always helpful to have a quick recall. Keep the vids comin'! Cantu

[@TheeDonnieRey]

appreciate all the knowledge man!

[@SuperDangerousMouse]

if I may suggest an easier way. Simply calculate the IMPLIED probabilities from the market (or the bookie), then find out how far your model is from the implied odds (the implied odds is our reference). Notes: if it's negative number, the implied probabilities should be greater than 50% if it's a positive number, the implied probabilities should be less than 50% ABS = absolute value (if the number is negative, make it positive. if the number is positive, keep it positive) Formula for negative number: ABS(X) / ( ABS(X) + 100 ) Formula for positive number: 100 / ( ABS(X) + 100 ) example: -220 ------> ABS(-220) / (ABS(-220) + 100) =68.75% (indeed > 50%) +180 -----> 100 / (ABS(180) + 100 ) = 35.71% so when the odds are -220 and your model is 72% (edge = (72% - 68.75%)/(68.75%) = 4.73% so when the odds are +180 and your model is 40% (edge = (40% - 35.71%)/(35.71%) = 12.01% Anyway, my question to you is: how do we find the model probability :)

[@CaptainJackAndrews]

Thanks SuperDangerousMouse. As you may have seen, I do use that same formula in my other Mathax series video "Convert Odds to Probability." Your method combines that formula into this one. Both reach the same conclusion adequately. Since most people tend to shy away from math, I provide the Google Sheet "Mathax" to take those formulas on the go whenever you need them. As for coming up with a winning model, I recommend checking out my series "Making a Modeler" also available on this channel.

[@SuperDangerousMouse]

@@CaptainJackAndrews Agreed, that both reach the same answer. I just feel that people tend to relate to percentages more than "odds." Anyway, thank you for your reply, and I subscribed to your channel. Clearly, you are a smart guy, and your content is extremely interesting. I will check out your recommended video. Thank you very much.

[@JohnnyJr396]

Ahhhh so we’re just looking for the percent increase of their probability to our probability... That makes sense! Thanks !!

[@PatG129]

Great video. Recently have started getting into the mathematical side of sports betting. I have 2 questions 1. I understand the formula, but I don’t have a probability scale, or a method to that. That is something that can’t be made up on the fly while making a pick. No idea how to come up with that portion really 2. Is there a certain EV that you take a pick with? So for example if it’s over 4.5% or higher is that when you decide to take the pick? Overall, I understand the formula of finding EV, but I don’t know how I would do it without my own probability numbers.

[@CaptainJackAndrews]

Thanks. In answer to your first question, it depends on what the bet is. If the bet is on a literal coin flip where heads or tails is 50% probability you would know the probability there. However, sports are played on a near infinite plane of randomness and possibilities. You have to come up with your projection and then quantify that based on the distribution of outcomes. You can do this by creating a monte carlo simulation for your projection and playing out the possibilities 10,000 times or so. Then you would have a probability based from that. As for the 2nd question, it's all subjective. The more confident you are in your probability projection and your edge, the lower the positive edge that you'd want to bet into. The less confident, the higher edge you'll need as cushion against your own misjudgment.

[@My_oh_face]

Monte Carlo simulation… why am I so dumb

[@roncharleston5510]

But how do you find the probability?

[@wuttichaimasuk8186]

Do back test

[@joshuaortiz715]

For example I found the team's edge which one I'm supposed to take -156 = edge -1.54% and +132 = edge -0.24%. The teams moneyline is first team is -156 and the second team is +132

[@pocketsurprise3805]

Is it possible to have an edge on somethibg already highly favored? I found a prop bet always being offered at -220 +170 but has only happened 8 percent

[@jesusmata4115]

How do I find my probability?

[@mikeycamarda7202]

For prize picks, how would you calculate this? There isn’t listed odds like -110 or +110. It’s just over or under. Would you have to refer to a sports books odds as your framework before making the decision on over or under?

[@CaptainJackAndrews]

Take the payout odds for the prize picks parlay and convert to implied probability. Now take the sqrt of the number of legs in the parlay. For instance, a 2-leg parlay paying +300 would be 25%, so that would be the sqrt of .25 = .5. That’s the break even probability per leg.

[@NatureandSpirit111]

How do you factor in certain players like a WAR rating for MLB and whenever Rutschman plays the winning percentage goes up to .600?

[@alivstyson1864]

there has to be more to edge than line differential no ? OR is THAT the Edge ?

[@nolegreg20]

as a new sport bettor this is awesome can’t believe it has less than 1k likes

[@PeterAdiSaputro]

How long have you been gambling professionally ? How or where I may know or get the probability of win ?

[@CaptainJackAndrews]

I've been gambling professionally about 20 yrs. The probability of winning comes from you. Whether you have an educated guess or a quantitative model. There's rarely a way to know with certainty what the true probability of a team winning is. If there were, the sportsbooks would know that too and sports betting wouldn't be any fun.

[@PeterAdiSaputro]

@@CaptainJackAndrews How to build a quantitative model ?

[@CaptainJackAndrews]

You can start with this series of videos: kzbin.info/www/bejne/moPNo4CYoJ1gq5Y

[@PeterAdiSaputro]

@@CaptainJackAndrews Thanks

[@coachjf63]

a really good video, that said two questions. How are you determining (on a per game basis) how much of an edge you have? I know what my model does over a year, but you want to look at it per game. Then, based on that, how are you determining what edge you need to place a bet and obviously, how much to bet on a game based on that edge?

[@CaptainJackAndrews]

The key to determining your edge on a per game basis is to have a realistic projection as to what the true odds should be. That's not as seat-of-your-pants as it sounds. For instance, if there are other sharper books in a market that have set an implied probability of 60% (after vig is removed), and you're able to bet it somewhere at -125, then you have an 8% edge. That's not your estimation of the true odds, but rather the more efficient market stating those odds. In terms of how much of an edge you need. That depends on your personal preference. The less certain you are of your probability projection, the bigger edge threshold you should desire. The more certain, the less of an edge you'd need.

[@coachjf63]

@@CaptainJackAndrews thanks for the reply, but not sure it answered my question. The specific sport it college football. If I go to Jeff Sagarin, I can see his probability of a team winning a game based on a point spread. In season, that probability will shift as games are played, even if the point spread were the same. Is there a formula (and can you share it) for taking your created point spread and turning that into probability? Then to your point, my thought is to compare that number to Sagarin's for instance or to Vegas lines without the vig, pick the biggest variance winners and track my win rate based on that.

[@CaptainJackAndrews]

Putting aside that I don't think Jeff Sagarin has much of an edge, you can convert the point spread to a moneyline and then convert the moneyline to an implied probability. To do the first conversion, you can use a tool like the Alternate Lines Calculator at Unabated.com. To do the latter, I have another video in the Math Hacks series about converting odds to probability.

[@coachjf63]

@@CaptainJackAndrews thank you...will check those out

[@coachjf63]

@@CaptainJackAndrews had one follow up question. take this scenario. Vegas ML of -360 on a -9.5 spread. My spread is estimating -5.3 which would equate to -179 ML at -100 or -204 ML if we used -110. So in calculating my edge, I am obviously using the -360 for the Vegas line, but is the number I should be using for my estimated percentage 64% (the -179 ML) or the -204.8 to get 67.19%? If its the -179 at 64%, I get a -18.22% using your calculator, if its the -204 at 69.19 I get -14.15. I know the second adds in the juice to my estimate and the first doesnt. thanks again!

[@drewhssd]

Hey Jack, love the videos and thank you for your knowledge. How do you calculate your ev when there is a tie possibility? Let’s say (MLB) over 9 +105 my model predicts a 55% win, 15% tie on the over. Do we just use the .55 as the probability even though we only have a 20% of loosing when combined with tie? How do you calculate when a tie probability is in play? Much thanks 🙏

[@oscarochieng5645]

how do you calculate using decimal odds.

[@luciantataru8773]

1.9x0.50% = 0.95 So 100- 95 = -5% -220= 1.45 1.45x 072% =104.4 100- 104.4 =+4.4 The probability are fake

[@batumaibrahim6710]

How do i know that team 1 or 2 win or draw

[@guitarrat18]

I get the math part, I just don't understand where you got the probability figures. What am I missing? Thanks so much for this video btw, Ive been looking for info on the math side of things.

[@CaptainJackAndrews]

The probability is either your projection or a quantitative projection of what the probability will be. For instance, if we have a coin we know the probability of heads or tails when flipping it is 50%. If we're offer +110, we have a 5% edge. Not everything in sports betting is so certain as that though. A lot of it is subjective to how well you've handicapped it. The inexact nature of your edge in sports betting is often a stumbling block for people that come from other disciplines where your edge is more exact. Like card counting in Blackjack for instance.

[@guitarrat18]

@@CaptainJackAndrews so, I hit 56% of my ATS plays last season (regular-110 bets... maybe a few -115s in there) in NFL/NCAAF. What would you consider a conservative probability given those figures? What want to know to calculate 1/4 kelly bet sizes for myself....

[@bensontaveras2442]

How do you determine the team probability? Is there a way to look at team projections and go from there. Thank you!

[@CaptainJackAndrews]

Determining the probability the bet wins varies by situation. Maybe the wager is about something finite like a coin-flip that you know has a 50% probability. Other times, you determine probability by looking at what sharper books offer the line at.

[@ronnieweather3175]

Howbdo you find or know your probability percentage?

[@luciantataru8773]

The probability are fake , to give him + and -- Coin flip never works in sport books

[@Yoh3nny]

Why do I add 100? Ex 110 minus 100 =210? Did i miss something

[@TheAbvefnc]

Could you make a video for European odds?

[@CaptainJackAndrews]

Good idea! Added to the To Do list.

[@hideonbush75]

For european odds that simple : (probability x decimal odds ) - 100 % Lets me know if u are okey Captain.

[@QUEENSUSA]

THE GOAT 🐐🐐

[@chrishaynes4823]

Hey Captain, does the parlay edge calculator work in the google sheets? The book odds don't seem to be updating for me and there doesn't seem to be a formula there? Thanks for all your hard work this channel has been great!

[@CaptainJackAndrews]

For the Parlay Edge section, you enter the true probability of each leg and the book's offered odds on each leg. It'll tell you the True Odds of that parlay hitting (which is just the product of the two probabilities converted to American odds) and then if you enter what the book is paying on the parlay it'll tell you the edge. Positive is a player edge. Negative is a house edge. Kind of confusing to work with. I apologize. If I think of a better way to do it, I'll change it.

[@petervlcko4858]

hi, thanks for video. i would like to ask you about your experience with exchanges and what your opinion about their odds. they should be pretty much fair. do you find that their odds are also not display accurate probability?

[@notkevinfinnerty4959]

maybe this is a dumb question; but I subtracted -150 and -130 as implied odds and it comes out to about 3.5%. But if you use -150(60%) as your ¨true odds/true probability¨ and use the equation in the video with -130 to see how much of edge you have it comes to 6.15%. What is the difference between these two methods and why the two different outcomes. Thx.

[@CaptainJackAndrews]

You calculated the difference in odds, but that's not your edge relative to the wager. For instance, if the implied probabilities were 6.5% and 10%, that method would still produce a 3.5% edge. However, that's nearly a 54% edge relative to the probability the bet wins.

[@notkevinfinnerty4959]

@@CaptainJackAndrews thank you for answering. 👍

[@britfisher4156]

Can you explain why the edge is (Odd-IP)/IP and not simply the difference between IP and Odd?

[@CaptainJackAndrews]

It is the % difference between the true probability and the implied probability. However, to calculate that you'd need to know the implied probability of the line you're betting and then divide the true odds by the implied odds to calculate your edge. The method outlined in the video only requires you to know your projection of how often you will win your wager.

[@christophercordero968]

What if I get a negative number for example in the last step it’s 121.9-130=-8.1/130=-0.062 does that mean I have a 62 percent edge still?

[@CaptainJackAndrews]

That means you have a negative 6.2% edge. -6.2%

[@1jruby]

I’m a little confused. If probability is found from the odds. How do you find the edge. For example you show 55% probability on the -110. Which shows you have an Edge but when i type the -110 in i show a lower probability which doesn’t show an edge in the spreadsheet and the betsizer basically says no bet.

[@CaptainJackAndrews]

The probability is the true probability of the event occurring, not the conversion from the odds to the probability. So if you project that the probability is 60%, and the sportsbook has the line at -120, you'd find you have a 10% edge.

[@beyburstarmy581]

What about the point spread? Is there a formula for that?

[@coyote_aaaooo6828]

I just had a question so what’s a reasonable or good edge percentage to have?

[@CaptainJackAndrews]

That's up to you. Since there is some inexactitude in your edge, best to leave some buffer, but the size of that buffer is relative to your confidence in your numbers.

[@mrcool76789]

5

[@victotyorvalhalla]

Coming up with probability is the challenge here. Any advice?

[@basiliszag]

awsome! perhaps ypou can create a video with methods of books use to add vigorish to their true probs

[@CaptainJackAndrews]

Noted! That's a good point, vig is not always added evenly to either side of wager. Good future topic.

[@Eric-yn6ur]

Thank you x1000

[@ARKING-nh9kf]

Great Video 💯🍻

[@ethans3571]

What determines your probability to win?

[@CaptainJackAndrews]

That is up to you. If you have a model that says it is 56.4% then that's what you would use. The goal of sports betting is to be less wrong than the sportsbook. If you can quantify the probability more accurately than the sportsbook, you'll do well. You don't have to be perfect, you just have to be less wrong than they are.

[@My_oh_face]

I guess my only question is trying to figure out what my probability to win is for each wager..that’s the x in the formula. Am I missing something here?

[@My_oh_face]

Nevermind, you answer that below…

[@ShaulMTN]

Decimal EV calculation? please

[@rayanmarrouche34]

How do I calculate the win percentage in the beginning(probability)

[@CaptainJackAndrews]

However you would like. You can use the odds at a sharper book to determine their opinion. You could build a model to project out a probability. You could look at past performance to determine likelihood. Having an edge is only as good as your probability calculation. If you've got a bad probability the edge is meaningless.

[@beyburstarmy581]

What happened if the percent is negative? Are you removed them to have positive percent? For example, if probability is 55% and odd -320 and then edge is -27.8%. Is that right?

[@CaptainJackAndrews]

If you end up with a negative percentage, then you have a negative expectation. The sportsbook has the edge in that case.

[@cashfromclutter3148]

At what percent do you place a bet?

[@CaptainJackAndrews]

That's your call. An edge is an edge and ideally you'd bet proportional to your edge. However, if you can't exactly quantify your edge you need to protect yourself with a threshold that helps mitigate the risk that your edge is not as large as you think.

[@waverunnerenterprise8063]

Amazing

[@brianfaz7387]

So i have a current model that gives me 57% win rate at odd 170 . Odds probability on that price is 37% so do i have 20% edge or use your calculation which says i have 53% edge??

[@CaptainJackAndrews]

Your edge is not just the win rate minus the implied odds. It's your win rate in relation to the implied odds. In that situation, a 57% win rate against 37% implied odds would be a 53.9% edge.

[@brianfaz7387]

This just works out my ROI , so you are saying you use your ROI as your edge?

[@seisnueveyt5349]

Thanks, keep it up?

[@barryth]

Edge = P(w)*Odds- P(L)= P(w)*0.91-(1-P(w)) = 1.91P(w)-1. Setting Edge=0, then 1.91P(w) =1, so P(w= 1 /1.91= .524 ;52.4% For -110 game decimal odds = 0.91. So for positive edge you P(w) must be greater than 52.4

[@jnava468]

Is edge same at +/- EV?

[@CaptainJackAndrews]

In this case, yes. Your EV is typically expressed as a $ amount. You would multiply your edge by the amount wagered to determine EV. If you have a 10% edge, and wager $100, you have an EV of $10.

[@planetpeter917]

Wouldn’t you have to take out the vig of the sportsbook before calculating your true edge?

[@CaptainJackAndrews]

You're calculating your win probability in relation to the line that you'd bet it at. No need to know the vig-free line in that equation.

[@planetpeter917]

@@CaptainJackAndrews how much do you have to beat the vig-included line to profit consistently?

[@CaptainJackAndrews]

@@planetpeter917 As much or as little as you want as long as you believe your projection is accurate. Example: You're betting against a line of -110/-110. You think the side you want to bet is 54% to win. Your edge: ((.54 * 210)-110)/110 = 3.09% The vig-free line or what the sportsbook thinks is the true odds of winning are irrelevant since you are betting against -110.

[@hideonbush75]

First thinks for ur video and ur time. So i've a question. i don't know if i'm idiot or .. but at 2:21 u said " odds : -220 = 72% probability. How ? because for me : -220 = (100/220) + 1 = 1.454 decimal odds Probability = 100/1.454 = 68.77% implied probability

[@CaptainJackAndrews]

We're calculating your edge here, not converting odds to probability.

[@SethC-z6t]

I got .1 for +4

[@GabrielTAsher]

Problem is me making a prediction on the probability

[@tompenski9503]

Isn’t your edge always 50% since there’s only two teams playing?

[@Wrld21Infamousdimaria]

❤❤

[@billymathers9596]

The math seems easy but how do you Compute your probability of winning your wager???? Major flaw.

[@CaptainJackAndrews]

Your probability of winning the wager is whatever you make it. The goal is to be less wrong the bookmaker was. The reward if you are is profit. The penalty if you're not is loss.

[@billymathers9596]

@@CaptainJackAndrews Ok, so 50/50.....?......I guess I should have asked how do you quantify your probability? Obviously, you like a side or a total at a certain number for various reasons, eg home dog, revenge, rivalry etc....but these things aren't easily put into numbers....please don't misunderstand Capt, not trying to show you up or be disrespectful, I'm mostly mathimatically illiterate, which is why I like your channel......but you probably get guys that suck at here all the time.

[@CaptainJackAndrews]

@@billymathers9596 no problem. We’ve had this same question before. If your probability is 50% and you’re betting into a -110 line you’d have a negative edge and i would recommend not betting. If you have a prop on whether or not Seth Curry will make o/u 8.5 three pointers in a game -110 on each side. You look back at all his previous games and find that 55% of the time he exceeds 8.5. You make that your projection. That’s a 5% edge. If you didn’t take into account that Seth Curry has a nagging injury tonight then you might pay the consequences of being more wrong than the bookmaker. The key is in being less wrong than the odds presented. This isn’t blackjack where there is finite math. This is probability based on known and unknown variables.

[@billymathers9596]

Yes! Thank you, that's what I was getting at, the unquantifiable, subjective and antecdotal nature of much of the reasons one chooses to wager on 1 side of an event or another.......So wouldn't this mean that your EV edge could have the wrong inputs?

[@CaptainJackAndrews]

@@billymathers9596 Absolutely. As I keep saying, it’s your projection versus the Sportsbook. I don’t see how this is any kind of flaw though.

[@cristianmicu]

in one another video i comment on you cannot know what your edge for a particular event is and i was referring to the ..''YOUR PROBABILITY.... in that formula. that's not easy to find. once you find that, of course you can mathax your edge, that's too easy, especially if you have the spreadsheet provided generously here. but my eyebrows were lifted when i saw that video title. really? 5 minute video and a google spreadsheet, it cant be that easy. of course it isn't. edit : on the right side suggested video : how to find an edge through game analysis : that's certainly one of the ways you can TRY to get close to that probability. and that either is not easy

[@markstone6263]

he isn't teaching anyone how to come up with their own probability, simply how to calculate/quantify your edge once you do. of course coming up with an accurate probability of one's own is the hardest part. would def be nice if someone could teach that in 5 mins :)

[@quasiimotto855]

So whoever has a higher edge percentage is most likely the winner???