Deep Dive 08/10/2024 - In-depth look at global and UK weather - Met Office weather forecast UK

This is an in-depth Met Office UK Weather forecast for the next week and beyond. A major hurricane is heading towards Florida whilst an ex-hurricane affects Europe. How could these systems affect the UK's weather? Bringing you this deep dive is Met Office meteorologist Aidan McGivern.
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We are the Met Office, the UK’s national weather service, and every day of the week we bring you a morning weather forecast and an afternoon weather forecast so that wherever you are in the UK we have you covered.
Forecast and any weather warnings are accurate at time of recording. To ensure you have the most up to date weather information, check the hourly forecast and live warnings on the Met Office website or app.

[@JustGamer-2012]

What you can add is Winter deep dives, looking at past winter, with a look what we can expect this winter

[@Mikee2022]

Thanks Aidan. Excellent deep dive. I always learn so much

[@jeremyevans9137]

Aidan's been upgraded! No bugs so far in the new screen. There's a lot going on at the moment and this was fascinating.

[@tdarren]

Most of our weather comes from the west so I think standing on the right actually makes more sense. Look forward to seeing the new interface develop further

[@sja45uk]

They are more likely to be blocking our view of the UK

[@allysonmercer6133]

Love the new touch-screen interface! Deep Dives are the highlight of my week! Thank you.

[@chrislaarman7532]

This is an ex-hurricane. - No! It's resting. Pining for the Gulf. Beautiful plumage! ;-)

[@ianrobinson9802]

I like the new screen and (updated?) graphics

[@TelscombeTerror]

Would really appreciate the deep dive’s in 4K, you put in all the hard work so it should be shown the best it can 👌🏻

[@metoffice]

Unfortunately, whilst our weather graphics can output in 4k and even 8k, our studio output is in HD

[@exception6651]

RTX super resolution will do for now

[@TelscombeTerror]

@@metoffice Thank you for the reply and keep up the excellent detailed work, very much appreciated ☀️☔️.

[@mickandrews9458]

Excellent stuff, thanks. These are more than just indications of weather patterns, they are very educational too. It is great that the Met Office not only provides the standard short forecasts each day but also these 'deep dives' (a very apt description) into weather patterns and their formation, which can be more technical given the different audience who may tune into them. Keep up the good work!

[@T1000-s6l]

Thanks for this it was interesting. Please can you consider doing a deeper dive into the recent and current hurricanes and especially why storm surge is so deadly and how it raises to hight of the water so much. Also, what has caused the floods in Africa and drought in Brazil. Thanks. On other thing, PBS has an excellent show called Weathered, any chance you could have the presenter on as a guest to talk about weather predictions and the difference between the Met office and Noa.

[@shaunpapworth4269]

I think your new touch screen is brilliant

[@suewright1299]

An excellent Deep Dive Aidan, really informative and so interesting! A brilliant new interface, which looks great to me, it’ll be interesting to see just what’s added to it to make it even better in time to come. I do hope those poor folk in Florida aren’t hit too badly by Hurricane Milton and that they are all able to get away in time, but mostly that they all stay SAFE!!! I was looking at it’s pathway this afternoon, terrifying!!😮 A truly brilliant DD, Aidan, very many thanks indeed! Thanks also to the Met Office. Take great care everyone and be careful on the roads tomorrow. 😊

[@emilyjayne77]

Well done Aidan! Great deep dive ☔️🌬️🌨️⛈️

[@CaroleCollins-e3k]

That looked stressful! Too many variables with a complex and ever changing weather pattern. I hope Florida doesn't suffer too much damage as Milton passes through

[@SamsVlogstrainsmore]

Interesting weather around for sure at the moment. Thanks for sharing this information Aidan.

[@steveflitton8903]

I enjoyed that very much. On the subject explaining the difference between a hurricane and a normal mid latitude low pressure system, I don't remember any mention that hurricanes start off as a cluster of thunderstorms and are mostly fuelled by latent heat, so you could say they are very much a convective system. As you say, a normal low is powered by different colliding airmasses. This is one of the first things I learnt in meteorology.

[@AmmiKaur-Dhaliwal]

Fantastic as usual; would love to see what is happening out in the Atlantic over the next week - must be wild!

[@causewaykayak]

I agree .... I suspect there are huge walls of water. Neighbours are currently on a coastal cruise off Portugal and Spain. Home on Friday. It will be interesting to hear what they experienced.

[@Richardssong18]

I just want a snowy winter 😩 brilliant deep dive well explained.

[@rayleeson6135]

Excellent deep dive, keep them coming

[@geoffcampbell7846]

Nice one Aidan, it's great to get updates on the more unusual weather systems as they run up against the UK. Give it a week and you'll have this new format mastered. Thanks for the show, much appreciated. 👋🇬🇧🇪🇺🇺🇦🇮🇪

[@cueman]

Hi Aidan. Good show focused on hurricanes, keep on doing that. I think go back to presenting from the other side though, as you tended to get in the way of the display when using the timeline slider this way round! Cheers from Dawlish 😁

[@robertshaffery667]

Excellent presentation. The new graphics worked well and as ever very informative. Good job 👍

[@jammin023]

Great as always. Looks like the new UI is a bit more responsive! But you need different icons for the different temperature modes, looks like you picked the daily local Maximum instead of Minimum... Also look into relocating the time slider or using the forwards/backwards buttons on the right so you don't have to stand in front of the screen to reach the next few days. Or drive it from a tablet or your laptop perhaps?

[@alcuinmacdonald]

Great work, thank you. I always come here for my weather forecast now. I was doing ok with the BBC forecast, and just planning for the opposite of what they predict, but this channel is so much better. Will one get the very best deep dive weather forecast on this channel? ... It's a McGivern ... Sorry, I'll get my coat.

[@matthewtrow5698]

Great overview of Milton - thanks Aidan. For us in the UK, at least in England, another miserable affair and tough times for farmers, that's for sure. Nothing compared to what is about to hit Florida - we can count ourselves lucky we don't get that kind of weather! We have ample evidence that rain intensity and distribution has changed quite dramatically globally. No choice but to adapt. Buckle up folks!

[@simonevans876]

Great summary Aidan, thanks! Fingers crossed we keep dodging these storms over the coming weeks. As a landscape photographer, we're at the mercy of the weather during peak autumn. One ill-timed storm and the stunning autumnal colours are gone!

[@TheGoodisonGang]

Thank you Aidan hownis doing the 10 Day Trend

[@MissFreyja]

Cheers Aidan for the break down and the tech looks good, just a slight issue with the sound at the beginning but it did get better, not sure what happened there, all in all a top show though.

[@markc6030]

A much better format, when I fill the phone screen out I get to see day/time information. 👍

[@alisdairmclean8605]

Always interesting. Thanks Aidan!

[@AndrewWainwrightPA]

Like the new interface but maybe you can move (and shrink 5x?) the horizontal scroll bar over to the right so that you don't keep blocking the view?💚

[@rayhaddock779]

Excellent deep dive I really increased my knowledge about the transition from tropical to extra tropical - fascinating. It is alos good to see how hurricanes add to the incertainty and how they do this. I look forward to seeing the capabilities of the new screen. Thanks again.

[@trick700]

The graphics are really good. Fab presentation as usual 😎👍

[@paulfairbairn1066]

Will La Nin̈a impact the uk this winter?

[@susiehenders]

Excellent presentation again 👏 thank you Met Office ❤ (the mic is clipping a little bit 🙏)

[@Annie-m1h3y]

Good heavens! What a weather mess!!!🤣. I really enjoyed all this information Aidan thank you!!😁. Nice new design too😁. It’s all come a long way since I remember the plonking rubber suns and clouds on a map!!!!🤣

[@Betleyman7853]

New screen is very good and you seem to have negotiated the "deep dive" without any problems.

[@mickmcnich]

Excellent presentation Aiden, love the new graphics and orientation. It is fascinating to see the interactions and chaotic nature of the weather. Look forward to the next update. Everyday is a school day.

[@timothyfrost6543]

Why when they categorise a Hurricane is M worse than H? You intuitively think Small, Medium, High.

[@metoffice]

H for hurricane (categories 1 and 2) and M for major hurricane (categories 3, 4, and 5)

[@timothyfrost6543]

Aha!

[@TimelapsingGames]

The S is for Storm, or tropical Storm (some people mark it as TS).

[@timothyfrost6543]

@@TimelapsingGames👍

[@stephenward5133]

Very interesting. Regards your interface, the slider that helps you move through the days being at the bottom of the screen means that you move across what you're trying to show. But all good otherwise in terms of what you're explaining.

[@lesshrubb203]

Thanks Aiden, very interesting and informative. The new design is looking good!

[@Mr4thetruth]

Wonderful entertaining forecast, thank you. Love the new touch screen, much better with you on the East side of the Atlantic. 🙂

[@Wolfyjinny]

The touch screen is pretty cool, however, as you scroll forward your head gets in the way, could you use a vertical scroll bar on the side where the buttons are?

[@Essie-p9i]

Hi, I like the new display but would it be possible to highlight the British Isles - it's a bit difficult to differentiate it from the sea, especially on a phone screen.

[@gkelly34]

I was in Mexico when Wilma hit in 2005. Terrifying

[@eileenclark7744]

Great programme. Thank you.

[@shedlife1745]

Great stuff. Very interesting. I look forward to these Deep dives.

[@sja45uk]

Thanks, as I was wondering how the remnants of recent tropical hurricanes impact our weather. However, the US forecasters use the output of the GFS and possibly the ECMWF when predicting Milton in the next few days. It would have been interesting to hear how the UK model differs in predicting the hurricane's short term behaviour.

[@MoonOnTheTides]

Fantastic video. Really informative and educational. More content like this please, it's fantastic!!

[@miguel5785]

Great explanation and graphics. Thank you.

[@martywig8653]

Thank you for another deep dive - perhaps you should call it "current dive" I feel now! I can now plan my working week and also pass your information on to my boy who lives in Dusseldorf and whose itinerary is equally governed absolutely by the weather ( arboriculture). Top marks!

[@darraghgregory1269]

Love this time of week ❤ hopefully we have some snow over winter not much as I can't afford High bills

[@jameshcox]

Interesting as ever thanks, and I appreciated the Atlantic hurricane coverage.

[@huubveldhuijzen7513]

What an excellent tutorial , thanks!

[@cncshrops]

So enlightening. Thanks.

[@Simon-wk1yk]

Always interesting and factual thank you

[@anamariacarvalho6738]

Very nice ypur grafic presentation capturei the front Bornéu moment ....

[@tonia1188]

(posted on your short instead of here 🙄) Hiya, sooooper weather deep dive, but tell me, how is storm Kirk going to affect local weather in Spain ?..ie, specifically it must distort weather in mountainous regions, which might have a knock on effect in the med after it funnels down and out that way (I'm thinking the mistral or Tramontana, both activated by northerly winds) I'm thinking we should expect to see higher winds speeds than average around the Balearics

[@ShaunFreeriderGrant]

Hi, great video as always 👍 Liked the new graphics, however the first 2 hurricane Milton graphics kept looping and didn't always correspond with what you were saying, which made it a little confusing. Maybe a graphic with a slider bar you control as you are speaking would be better. Thanks 🙂

[@ShaunFreeriderGrant]

Maybe a vertical slider bar next to your control panel?

[@Coolyoghurt22]

Aidan can I ask a question. I have heard through media about tornado warnings in southern england. Is this true or is it just media making it sound a lot worse than it is? Thanks for the deep dive Aidan :)

[@metoffice]

The Met Office don’t issue tornado warnings!

[@rickwills4281]

New graphic info looking good!

[@anthonycline9007]

Great hurricane talk plus jet pattern.

[@GaryDoyle-bq2vd]

Might just be me but presenting from the right doesn't scan correctly as you appear to have your back to the camera more often. Otherwise another insightful episode.

[@anamariacarvalho6738]

Good evening Mr UK weather

[@stevec00ps]

Please show the uncertainty graphics you've shown in the past so we know how uncertain you guys are. Also which models forecasted Milton the best so far? The UK and European ones often do better than the US!

[@Tim_Small]

Lots of focus on Florida (forecast cat 3) but not on Mexico where it's already hit at cat 5?

[@anamariacarvalho6738]

Have a nice week ahead

[@alexmatthews3484]

One for the Q&A - what are the possible interactions between a tropical system and the jetstream and what creates the differences?

[@alunjones3860]

I can see the potential for that Scandinavian high to result in persistent rainfall, if that trough gets stuck over us. Hopefully we'll get more of the high pressure next week.

[@Augustz.]

Tysm for allmof these videoss

[@sidoftheid496]

Really interesting 'Deep Dive'. Not sure that having you stretch across in front of the screen that you are trying to present is such a good idea, especially when you were in the optimum position to present everything when you were on the left of the screen (from our point of view). Other than that, well done.

[@trevorfurness5695]

Well presented- bravo!

[@JW_M]

Each week. Why not say what has piqued your interest for this week deep dive. If u know what i mean?

[@alexmatthews3484]

If the touchscreen is still in development, do you think the time line could be halved in length, then Aidan doesn't have to block the UK while trying to move it along?

[@thealmightyegg553]

Very informative. Thank you.

[@iiiu8]

Great job

[@peterlatham]

Just a quick comment regarding the repositioning of the buttons. I think you need to move the key to the graphs etc to the other side now.. because the presenter is blocking the key.. all in all another good deep dive. ..

[@garymclaughlin4457]

Enjoyed your video .

[@ashleyhaworth-roberts6066]

If there was a deep low affecting the UK that needed naming because of severe gales in parts, and it contained remnants of two ex hurricanes, would it be called eg Storm Milton and Leslie (could such a situation happen or would eg Milton and Leslie remain slightly apart from each other)?

[@HealthyJamie]

Could you please make the subtitles work?

[@MIRIAM-bm5sn]

We are so flooded where I live in the Somerset

[@rb9580]

I'm neither here nor there on the new touchscreen, but we did seem to see more of your back with you on that side, when you went to point at the screen. This may just be a matter of you getting used to the other side, but anyone with a background in amateur dramatics will have been screaming at you to face the audience! 🙂

[@anamariacarvalho6738]

Thanks

[@jerryat187]

Keep safe everyone x

[@edgewalker7459]

Watchin another guy talking about space weather , he was saying the large solar flare hit us at the same time the hurricane increased, so many variables making Milton absolutely devastating

[@davidbardwell704]

Thank , again 👍

[@michaelstimpson1137]

What happened in Yucatan? There is absolutely no coverage, yet the storm passed close to the coast at cat 4. Yucatan must be underwater.

[@anamariacarvalho6738]

Its Firmino a NAO pattern ?

[@Augustz.]

Does the storm surge still happens in ex hurricanes??

[@metoffice]

Yes, storm surge can happen from any low pressure. The larger the circulation, the lower the pressure and the stronger the winds the worse it is. Bathymetry also plays a role (the shape of the coastline and topography of the sea floor).

[@wedgwoodswepston9449]

Why are you now using the American pronunciation of hurricane rather than English?

[@metoffice]

I’m Welsh

[@wynhughes9072]

The weather in the UK is getting far more complicated. Surprised that the computer algorithms can keep up

[@ShakesSphere]

Milton will strengthen back to a Cat 5 before Florida landfall. Once it moves a little closer, it will be over much warmer water...We'll see if I'm right about that. But I would've been packing up my photos documents, pets and their gear, and have hit the road yesterday morning, before the traffic jams and empty gas stations!

[@amandamarais8960]

Cool!

[@helenswan705]

hearing a lot about Floridaq. What about poor old mexico???

[@dougbates8018]

Milton is not an Atlantic hurricane, nor was Helene. These GOM Hurricanes formed in the Gulf of Mexico with easterly to northeasterly tracks and have different dynamics to the Atlantic hurricanes that form on the ITCZ off West Africa and track westwards to northwestwards into the Caribbean region.

[@metoffice]

Atlantic in this sense refers to the Atlantic Basin, which includes the entire North Atlantic Ocean, the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea.

[@dougbates8018]

@@metoffice Thank you, I understand that nomenclature. In fact the term ‘hurricane’ is applied only to tropical cyclones that develop in the Atlantic Ocean, or Caribbean Sea / GOM, or in the northeastern Pacific (i.e. all tropical cyclones that affect the Americas). Tropical cyclones that develop in the northwestern Pacific and affect East Asia, Japan and the archipelagos of the western Pacific and the South China Sea are known as Typhoons, whereas those in the northern parts of the Indian Ocean (Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal) and all those that form in the southern hemisphere over the south Pacific and Indian Ocean (rarely over the South Atlantic) are simply called Cyclones. Driven primarily by coriolis force arising from Earth’s rotation; these weather systems are closely connected to the ocean currents. All of these classes of Tropical Cyclone characteristically migrate westwards to northwestwards in the northern hemisphere and westwards to southwestwards in the southern hemisphere, with corresponding opposite rotations. They form mainly as disturbances on the ITCZ at the convergence of northwest and southwest trade winds, following the warm north equatorial and south equatorial ocean currents, which provide the humidity and thermal energy that drives these storms … with the exception of some that form in the confined basins of the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal, and some in the eastern Pacific on the Pacific equatorial countercurrent (el nino / ENSO) and in the confined basin of the western Caribbean or GOM area, which have elevated sea surface temperatures and currents forced into northerly to easterly circulation at low latitudes. These form distinctive weather patterns that stall westerly movement and develop nearly stationary tropical storms that develop powerfully and then tend to track slowly northeastwards. There should be a distinction between these storms and open ocean storms because their behaviour is different and less predictable. Just my humble opinion based on observations and experience of some of these monsters.

[@alanb8696]

Upto 400mm of rain but 15foot sea surges in Florida 🤔 maybe should tell us both values at least in the deep dives

[@johnnybravo9096]

Is there evidence to suggest that the Mount Tung Tonga eruption, which increased by 10-15% the amount water vapour in the atmosphere, has naturally increased the amount of energy, rainfall and cooling(at night) warming(stratosphere)? This is a huge amount of extra water basically, so it should have lingering effects for the weather in the future?

[@stephyadcock1233]

The water vapour from that eruption shot up to the stratosphere, not the troposphere. The excess water vapour we now have in the troposphere is down to basic thermodynamics i.e. warmer atmosphere holds more moisture.

[@philipgibbard304]

Very interesting forecasts, but can I ask why you give temperatures in the metric system measurements, but precipitation in imperial measures? In science we never use imperial measures, so please be consistent.

[@metoffice]

We give precipitation in metric too. The UK Met Office gives rain in mm and snow in cm. The chart that showed forecast rain from Hurricane Milton in inches was from the National Hurricane Center in the USA.

[@davemurphy2020]

He gave wave hight in imperial, precipitation in metric. Accurate Observation in science is crucial

[@1947dave]

@@metoffice As the US is pretty much out on its own in using Imperial measurements, you could overlay the metric equivalents on output taken from the NHC. American viewers might then learn something too!

[@nickshaxted9057]

Next item is to upgrade the wobbly table

[@heatherjoy479]

Uk weather must be confusing to predict this time off year with hurricane season from America

[@metoffice]

Beyond 3-5 days that’s certainly true!