Michael Burry Inflation Warning

Michael Burry has said that he thinks that inflation has temporarily peaked but he expects it to surge again in 2023. He believes that this will happen after the US enters a recession. This will result in the US government splurging on more stimulus spending and the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates. But is this a likely path to higher inflation, and if not, what might trigger a second spike?
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Timestamps
00:00 Introduction
00:31 Inflation Warning
02:47 US Recession
07:29 Fed Rate Cut
09:22 US Government Stimulus
11:43 More Likely Path To High Inflation
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[@danielt3497]

Interesting to see which states companies have selected for their manufacturing investments

[@tastypymp1287]

Ramin is a touch naive here. If it thinks the US government won't resort to fiscal stimulus, I believe he is wrong. When you observe activity and behaviour, developed countries like the US are resorting to behaviours akin to developing and emerging markets. Albeit in a more reduced and protracted manner. For now. But the US, and others, have HUGE debt liabilities. The old school methods are either outright default (developed economies don't do that anymore) or inflate it away. What's worse, the US is in a unique position where the domestic currency is also the world's reserve currency. The ability, temptation and even motivation to continue to print fiat currency to debase it and inflate away the debt is likely too strong. And it seems the rest of the world might be also beginning to acknowledge that.

[@MrEvertonian20]

Correct. The debt train cannot and will not stop. The FED wants to own it all and they will do.

[@g30rg3-c5]

Great work, well done. Much appreciated ✅

[@Pensioncraft]

Much appreciated @G30RG3 - C

[@rexmundi273]

Clear information, as always. Thanks.

[@Pensioncraft]

My pleasure @Rex Mundi

[@dj796]

Again, some quite superb analysis, do you run a portfolio/asset management function?

[@Pensioncraft]

Hi @D J Thanks for subscribing. Sorry we don't offer asset management but if you want to find out what we do offer take a look at our website pensioncraft.com

[@lior305]

So much useful information, thank you sir!

[@Pensioncraft]

Glad it was helpful @Lior Zada

[@mohamedghoneim9738]

I totally agree with you.

[@Eaipo]

I am struggling to find any small cup value etf on Trading 212, anyone can help? Thanks

[@natalie8NB]

Is the FED in any position of control - other than 'controlling' then narrative and fitting the story to the lagging indicators?

[@terriesales]

So glad you’re covering his thoughts.

[@garycurtis4597]

Interesting and informing, as usual. Now you can nip off to deliver Cadbury's Milk Tray :-)

[@foodheaven8778]

So much information thanks

[@Pensioncraft]

Glad it was helpful @Food heaven

[@mahendrajasubhojani6374]

What is expected gbp / usd in next 6 Months

[@frankwiersma7980]

Interesting video. Thank you.

[@Pensioncraft]

Glad you enjoyed it @Frank Wiersma

[@AlexPolsky]

This is quality work, with reference to good quality sources. Much better than the average KZbin or hot takes, a thumbs up for seriousness and attention to the complexity of the subject.

[@tastypymp1287]

Federal Government debt calculations ignore: •State and municipal debt (both domestic and foreign) •QE debt held on Fed Bank balance sheets •Liabilities such as debt default insurance (depositor protection). The US government debt problem is far, far bigger than 110%.

[@cyril_ogude]

Again here goes Michael predicting the next 20 out of 2 recessions

[@jj-uy3tw]

Even then, i'd say it's way more accurate than market bulls that have already predicted 100 of the last 0 market bottoms. Just ask Tom Lee and his followers.

[@rajrouj]

😂

[@youwebz]

Jealous much?

[@lapserdak24]

Last year he was right.

[@cyril_ogude]

@@lapserdak24 what recession last year? Also if you predict a recession every year you’ll be right eventually. That’s my point

[@richardstrange9166]

How long does the promo code last?

[@Pensioncraft]

There are no plans for the code to expire anytime soon. Thanks

[@pfv7922]

Totally agree on the analysis on second inflation spike causing by another oil shock

[@tastypymp1287]

Ramin gets it wrong yet again.... This is the problem with YoY inflation analysis. Yes, inflation in gasoline CPI increased in 2021 but that's YoY compared to 2020. And we know that demand was utterly destroyed in 2020. So the 2021 'inflation' was simply a return to normal consumption and normal prices. Therefore to assert that energy prices are responsible (implying exclusively) for excess inflation is a fallacy. The real energy spike was in 2022 due to sanctions imposed on energy by US hegemony. It is interesting that Ramin has used inflation percentages rather than observe real oil barrel prices. If you observe the real data, real inflation was increasing long before the Russia/Ukraine conflict and you cannot dismiss the effect of huge monetary and fiscal stimulus. This is classic Investment Industrial Complex gaslighting.

[@R3tr0v1ru5]

@@tastypymp1287 Wrong. Yes consumption went back to normal or slightly above normal after lockdowns but the difference was that supply chains were fucked so there was way more demand than supply which caused inflation.

[@tastypymp1287]

@Retrovirus Not wrong. Increase in money supply = inflation. Everytime, economics 101. Post GFC QE saw major inflation in real and financial assets. CPI inflation was avoided because it was transferred out to China etc and materialised as their growth. The increased growth was met with increased supply. This time, the QE was very heavy, both in volume and velocity. It's leaked out everywhere. Sure, supply chain issues exaggerated it. But it wasn't the exclusive cause of the issue.

[@obnoxiaaeristokles3872]

@@tastypymp1287 Why don't you make your own youtube channel if you are smarter than Ramin and everybody else. I am sure you'll reach a couple hundred thousand subscribers very quickly.

[@tastypymp1287]

@@obnoxiaaeristokles3872 Prissy.

[@paulranseder3842]

When was FED right with its projections?

[@sbkpilot1]

I don't think so... Powell isn't going to follow the typical playbook, being a student of Volcker. He is going to keep rates high and not cut until next year.

[@steviewonder417]

Interest rate channel is getting close to 100 billion a month in net transfers to the private sector

[@radar0412]

I think you're right but for different reasons. Powell works for Biden. So I expect Powell to keep interest rates up through this NON-ELECTION year of 2023. Powell will pivot in early 2024 just in time for Biden's reelection campaign to ramp up.

[@1fattyfatman]

Living in the United States it is pretty clear we have profiteers throughout our governance systems. They are currently acting responsibly, but as soon as an opportunity arises, priority one will be inflating their preferred asset classes regardless of the damage. The only thing that is keeping them in line at the moment is the threat of social unrest or systemic collapse.

[@mohammadcheema7375]

I thought Burry’s tweet was actually hinting at some form of unforeseen financial crisis that forces the US to lower rates as an emergency measure. A sudden liquidity crisis in pensions / derivatives or real estate might be on the cards this year. Although I sincerely hope not.

[@frankmcdonald482]

Hi Ramin, I’ve been watching your content for a couple of years now and have always loved it - insightful, concise and fact-driven. I used your promo code for the deal. However, the free share I received was only to the value of £11.00 GBP. Is this correct? Thanks!

[@lapserdak24]

Demand a share of Berkshire Hathaway!

[@zubairshah1612]

Same here, tbh he did say upto not equal to £100

[@Pensioncraft]

Hi @Frank McDonald Thank you for your kind words and it’s great to hear that you like my videos. The Trading 212 free shares are randomly selected, and their value will be up to £100 so a free £11 share is quite possible. Sorry if you thought it was going to be more but I did try and make it clear by saying “up to £100” both in the video and in the description. Many thanks Ramin

[@mehdiyk8854]

The US is normalising relations with Maduro in Venezuela. They reprioritized their geostrategical enemies and are now lifting sanctions on venezuela. I think venezuala (biggest oil reserves in the world) coming back online will avoid us a high oil price for the next 2 years. So there is probably deflation around the corner (which I would welcome for one).

[@tastypymp1287]

Hmmmm..... Takes two to tango.....

[@florestores]

Nobody knows what will happen next!

[@nikokennedy837]

Is trading 212 available in US?

[@Pensioncraft]

Hi @Niko Kennedy it's not available in the US at the moment only the UK and Europe. Thanks

[@qwer2556]

Somebody complained online trading 212 transferred his money to someone else's account when he tried to withdraw his money. Trading 212 is a quite new company, it didn't take new customers for a while last year, I hope they have already sorted out it's problems. need to be careful .

[@romashkumar659]

This information is good

[@Pensioncraft]

Thanks @xRomash Kumar

[@joelwhite8391]

Inflation wasn't primarily caused by energy markets and Ukraine war. That was the excuse. Inflation was caused primarily by the doubling of M1 in less than 2 years and an abundance of cheap credit that created asset bubbles. I'm agreeing with Burry, that recent inflation bump was merely act 1.

[@aesopshair6690]

True... in addition, the policies in response to the 'pandemic' created a bizarre situation where demand and supply were utterly distorted, being frozen and simultaneously set on fire across a number of different markets which added to the already inflated asset bubbles. Furthermore, the employment figures are a trailing indicator for a recession rather than a leading indicator, so the low unemployment is likely to result in higher demand and consequently higher inflation until central banks decide to break the cycle with interest rates.

[@gerry2345]

I like this vid. Good insight.

[@Pensioncraft]

Thanks so much @GerrysPlace

[@tastypymp1287]

We haven't seen inflation 'turn south'. Look at the data Ramin. Inflation in volatile prices such as energy have declined but hard inflation in more sticky prices is continuing to rise, especially in Europe.

[@JohnKelly-jo9bh]

Or look at the Shortages and Prices at the store when you go shopping. Not trying to be doom and gloom, just trying to be realistic.

[@robklein583]

I agree with almost everything this speaker said in this well thought out video. But I must say I (like Mr Burry) think that during the upcoming recession the fed will chicken out and reduce interest rates somewhat despite what Mr. Powell says in his speeches. And the gov't will try to add a little stimulus to improve the economy with a federal election upcoming. And inflation will rise again as it always does in this situation. But I do think a once in a lifetime buying opportunity will play out in the market next year.

[@khansahib4017]

So much information think for this....

[@frankf8404]

So, next rapid boom and bust cycle? Isn't that what the central banks were supposed to prevent in the first place? Are we doomed to their faulty policies to the bitter end? Monetary expansion cannot go on forever. The long term debt cycle has to end eventually, either through bankruptcy or hyperinflation. That's how I see it.

[@danguee1]

4:52 Surely the economy is dominated by Texas, California, New York (and a few other big states)? Just going on the number of states going into recession could very easily completely miss the point if the big states remain relatively bouyant....

[@tastypymp1287]

Good point.

[@tastypymp1287]

It should be weighted.

[@skinnymoonbob]

What is his wisdom for this prediction other than looking at the 1970s and 1980s? I would carefully assume the FED will look at the past as well.

[@bigmacntings7451]

Actually no ,it's worse than that. You can potentially be looking at a 240 year cycle in the US(Civil war/revolution), or perhaps a 360 year cycle in uk (jacobite uprisings and highland clearances) There is a LOT converging.

[@skinnymoonbob]

@@bigmacntings7451 let’s look at the star constellations instead 🤪

[@jamesrobertson504]

Agree with you completely. Besides the reasons you cited, I don't see fiscal stimulus after what happened in the House of Representatives over the past few days' protracted election of the Speaker of the House. They're talking about a plan for balancing the budget over 10 years, so stimulus isn't in the Republican's plan. OTOH good luck with balancing the budget given that Social Security and Medicare (2 biggest parts of the Federal Budget) are going up with retiring Baby Boomers and Defense is going up given the geopolitical situation. But China reopening might boost energy/commodity costs, given the lack of CapEx in supply, which possibly results in a second inflation spike. Similarly when the West finally starts growing again, lack of energy/commodity investment might also result in inflation rising again. It's possible we get up/down inflation similar to the 70s regardless of what Jay Powell does because the Fed can't print oil and other commodities and Powell has admitted that in the past. Also agree with you that re-shoring/decline in globalization's deflationary tailwinds will mean more inflation.

[@lainiwakura44]

Why not considering financing debt through money printing again (like in 2010s insane QE)?

[@ericmendels]

JPMorgan Chase & Co posted stronger-than-expected fourth quarter earnings Friday and said the U.S. economy remains strong, with solid consumer spending and healthy business activity. My portfolio has good companies, however it has been stalling since last year. I have approximately $550k static in my reserve that needs growth.

[@x7zy-xx]

Tha unemployment feel so low and that there was such a big demand for labour in the end of the covidperiod, can this be because all of the stimulus. BEcause there seems to be some sort of relationship between this two factors.

[@albertneville8918]

Who knew that the "Federal Debt Held by the public" actually includes the Fed's holdings ? Makes sense when you think about it.

[@jerryware1970]

This is what happed in the 1970s. And the Federal government won’t be able to pass any more stimulus packages for the next two and half years.

[@2likenoother]

In my humble opinion and i think some experts also highlithed this issue which is the missing key elements in all current prediction is debt. All we hear is similation and predictions based on historical patterns which have traditional economic cycle (inflation/deflation). Now the issue is the mechanism allowing government to control or stimulate these cycles have reached somewhere a red zone accumulating enormous debt. QT (interest rise) increase debt so is the QE which is even worse by x10. Now we are in a place where countries will never pay for public debt especially the US. This is the next financial buble and the crisis that will lead to a global monetary reset. We are already seeing this with some countries like Sirilanka and Ghana etc... Now for major economies i think so far no one knows what to expect after this reset. Especially with geopolitical tensions and dollar weakining. What amaze me is why this still being ignored by analysts.

[@thedustcart]

Even a broken clock is right twice a day.

[@Pensioncraft]

8-)

[@TennisFedable]

I don't get why he thinks the govt is going to not be up for more stimulus. The rest of the analysis is spot on whoever is in power will want to have a good economy and what's a few percentage points of GDP between friends? If we have a recession, I can guarantee the govt will stimulate. Republicans or Democrats.

[@Scheevel67]

Agreed. congress felt the need to create the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 (while the Fed was raising rates) The same populism will emerge post recession and everyone will fall off the horse to the stimulus side. As soon as the money printing starts inflation will rise again.

[@robertwilson214]

They have to print to pay interest on national debt and buyback their stock market.Past the point of no return.

[@erandeser5830]

Reasoning that unemployment and recession go together is no surprise. Reasoning that therefore the fed (or whoever) should promote unemployment just does not make any sense.

[@bryanbell9103]

Why doesn't he show himself and give an interview instead of veiled tweets?

[@dsmonington]

Burry is of course a great stock picker, but has he been definitively correct about anything macroeconomic related since 2008?

[@jimmyhvy2277]

Employment is measured differently nowadays .

[@Jeffybonbon]

This is crystal ball stuff For what its worth Rates will rise a little more and then inflation will fall as recession hits and then at some point banks will cut rates

[@tastypymp1287]

That's not guaranteed at all.

[@Jeffybonbon]

@@tastypymp1287 what is Guaranteed just death and taxes

[@tastypymp1287]

@@Jeffybonbon Cliché.

[@jermainerobinson7098]

Great video thanks

[@Pensioncraft]

Glad you enjoyed it @jermaine robinson

[@slovokia]

As government debt continues to grow in relation to the size of the economy investors will begin to doubt the prospects that they will be repaid the wealth that they are lending to governments. Yes you might be repaid in nominal terms but not in real purchasing power. Once government bonds start being regarded as certificates of confiscation the game will change.

[@agsmith001]

I wonder if Burry is thinking about the rise in populism (from the right and the left causing radical policy shifts) and factoring that into his forecast. Don't forget Powell's pivot in 2018. Maybe he wouldn't do that again but someone else might.

[@bigmacntings7451]

Oh Boy,whe this gets cooking and the redundancies happen,then you will see what real "populism" looks like. Give it a year,maybe 2. When the economy is good immigration is tolerated.When the economy is bad they will get the blame. Ramin, as a uk resident I think you will probably remember how bad things got in the late 1970's/early 80's. The inverted treasury yield curve is now at levels not seen since those times.If this is a harbinger of things to come ,then it means rough times ahead socially too.

[@Pensioncraft]

Hi BigMac N Tings74 I do remember and it wasn't pleasant. But it's a lot better now than it was then. To your point A.G. Smith I guess populism could be inflationary if it comes with fiscal largesse but in the US at least unionization is now so low that people are unlikely to have much clout when it comes to wage negotiations except in really tight markets like tech and engineering. The Democrats are unlikely to overspend now that they've got so much stimulus and infrastructure spending in the works. Looking at the wage growth data there's no evidence of a wage-price spiral. So I don't see a path to higher inflation as Burry tells it. Thanks, Ramin.

[@michaelwilliams-nq6zg]

We look at U6

[@simony2801]

For once I an see his point, a recession followed by more money printing and more inflation seems inevitable to me.

[@R3tr0v1ru5]

I hope they don't cut too much. Keep rates at 2.5 and allow the free market to work... Of course government won't do that.

[@cwalenta656]

Ultimately though inflation is a choice.

[@juicethemodeller]

This analysis sounds very reasonable, but it is shallow and at times just plain wrong. For example: 1/ “The US government won’t stimulate.” The US government is projected to run $1tn deficits for the foreseeable future and deficits are the closest thing to money printing that the modern economies have (much more so than QEs, which are just asset swaps, and very questionable ones at that because they remove the much needed collateral exactly when everyone scrambles for collateral). 2/ “Unemployment rate as a recession indicator.” At best, this a lagging indicator (which if one thinks about it is an oxymoronic term). At worst, the logic is circular because unemployment rate is used to identify / define recessions retrospectively. 3/ “Recession will be shallow.” It might be, and personally that’s what I hope for. Markets, however, think otherwise. Yield curves are inverted in an unprecedented manner, meaning that market participants overwhelmingly hedge themselves against something bad down the road (otherwise who’d at their right mind hold a 10-year treasury at 3.5% when they could get almost 5% overnight risk-free from the FED). Even the oil-futures curve is in backwardation (i.e., inverted), meaning that the cost of carry is negative which incentivizes storing oil over using it now. This is despite the supply removed by all the production cuts, sanctions, and lack of investment in oil infrastructure. Hardly signs of a shallow recession.

[@petearmstrong2778]

Currently feels like every 'expert' has their won view of what will happen next - a bit like predicting the closing level of S&P500 or FTSE at year end. Which expert will be most accurate? They can't all be correct so check back for progress in a few months.

[@jimbojimbo6873]

Inflation may have peaked (doubt it though) but the economy isn’t budging, unemployment hasn’t been touched.

[@dumbcat]

something that should be considered is the specter of permanently inflated prices. even if the pace of rising inflation falls from 8% to 2% that does Not mean prices have returned to what they were before the inflation began. for that we would need DEFLATION which is a word that i'm starting to see in articles

[@christerdehlin8866]

Wages will catch up eventually.

[@tastypymp1287]

@@christerdehlin8866 How's that?

[@tastypymp1287]

What's more, that 2% is 2% of a now greater inflated base. So in real monetary terms its a real greater cost. If we index the beginning of inflation at 100, and we subsequently get inflation of 10%. The eventual 2% inflation is 2% of 110, not 100.... This is of course completely disregarded by the media and Investment Industrial Complex when they talk about inflation 'coming down'. They conveniently forget about compound interest....

[@dumbcat]

@@tastypymp1287 Yes. What they have done with their wicked money printing is absolutely horrible, especially for older people and savers.

[@tastypymp1287]

@@dumbcat This is true.

[@brownhilton2842]

It's easy to be an investor during the good times. It's hard to be an investor during the hard times. If you want to be a successful investor,

[@hollandhoff975]

that’s what I’m currently doing. I’m buying as much as I can handle now through these bad times. I pay my future self first by piling my pay into the market so I can thank myself later for it.

[@StephenMcDowall]

Inflation didn’t end. 1 dozen eggs in Manhattan NYC is $7.55 today .

[@MrEvertonian20]

Ramin, the FED is addicted to debt. They will continue to find ways to inflate and keep the debt bubble going. It will not stop. It can’t stop.

[@martinjrtremblay]

Americans are addicted to debt. Consume consume and consume baby.

[@JohnSmith-ir1fo]

It will stop when they solve the problem they created by introducing a digital currency. People would not switch if the paper money would still have worth.

[@MrEvertonian20]

@@JohnSmith-ir1fo accurate

[@nedi6188]

I guess it depends on if its a shallow or deep recession you said its shallow and he thinks it will be deep thus were the stimulus kick in cause the government imho have no choice to stimulate in a deep recession.

[@marjorienavarro6337]

Don't forget energy inflation, can increase rate as much as the fed like....but if Russia and opec cuts output and etc. Inflation will hang around..

[@mattinthehat22]

I’d really like to have your confidence with respect to the US not spending itself into a debt/gdp ration of 125+%… imho, the Fed balance sheet should be included in that calc. I know they’re ‘separate’, but my air quotes are just that: air quotes. Also, the Fed is not paying coupons rn or for the foreseeable future. Dems want to get re-elected in 24. Something is likely to provide an excuse for stimmy $, aka vote purchasing. Just my ignorant 2 cents.

[@bornenit309]

Burry got 2008 right, thats it.

[@boasa]

Also got Tesla downfall right

[@maxborn7400]

@@boasa many more were calling out Tesla for years, but the "free money" era kept it afloat (and whoever was Musk's PR team back then). Burry has been calling out crashes since 2016, like many other (Grantham).

[@bornenit309]

@@boasa A monkey could have predicted that.

[@simony2801]

@@boasa that wasn’t hard considering their market capitalisation was more than every motor manufacturer in the world combined, even I got that one right.

[@jreisz2003]

And 2022. Like he says predicting a year early he gets broken clock status.

[@TheOne-er7nk]

The Fed can't control war?? Maybe so... but I'm guessing it's private shareholders can.🤣

[@joannemeeks745]

No, he is not arrogant. WAKE UP.

[@oneeleven9832]

Don’t microchip factory’s require vast amounts of water..seems a bit short sited to build a factory in Arizona…I’m no expert but isn’t it dry there🤔

[@t.g.c9311]

80% debt to GDP was low?....

[@R3tr0v1ru5]

Should never have gone above about 1%. Government is out of control.

[@patchpeek]

"Inflation was started by rise energy prices"... ? ? Nothing to do with the stimulus and fed money printing then? Probably why you are struggling to comprehend Burry's thesis . You have made the classic mistake of putting the Cart before horse.

[@davidgray3321]

The war ended in 1945 old boy, not 1948 0or 1951.

[@sunaxes]

Yield curves are the most inverted since forever. That alone is an indicator of a major recession coming our way...

[@UziGameGP]

You cannot predict the magnitude, simply a recession is coming

[@sunnohh]

@@UziGameGP fact, some of the biggest inversions have had the mildest recessions

[@BrogeKilrain]

Prove those reserves really physically exist . Most likely just numbers on .. paper ? Or digital

[@36handy]

12:36 - Energy -> government policy in the Western World believing in the ESG bullishit. That is THE issue.

[@jasonharding8336]

I love your work Ramin but you're selling yourself out a bit here. Let's not forget your platform reviews of the past, when you openly expressed concerns of T212 due to its additional CFD offerings. And now you say you use it for fun portfolios.

[@pabs5270]

Spend, spend, spend--deficit, deficit, deficit. INFALTION.

[@nasok8472]

M. Burry turm in to an economist with his tweets:)

[@UziGameGP]

Burry should change his name from cassandra to broken record. In his mind, he has predicted everything correct, yet he was only right twice in his whole "career". Every year he cries about recessions

[@youwebz]

Jealous much?

[@JohnSmith-ir1fo]

He is very right you will see

[@robertallan4489]

Bury predicted an economy collapse for 2022. He missed that. His scare tactics will miss here as well.

[@jmitterii2]

He never said that. You're making up his words. They're all saved in other tweets... he never said complete collapse in 2022.... but he did suspect the bubble to start busting. Crypto stupidity more than 60% down... Stock indexes down over 20%, some underlying stocks down 60% to 90% from the mania of 2020 and 2021. So wasn't wrong. You're just making up stuff that Burry didn't say, and saying: see this didn't happen. A) Burry Didn't say that. B) You're making stuff up. This is called a strawman argument: "..someone takes another person's argument or point, distorts it or exaggerates it in some kind of extreme way, and then attacks the extreme distortion, as if that is really the claim the first person is making." Perhaps you need to gaslight people our yourself? Holding massive bags? Well, that's inconsiderate if you're trying to pawn your junk to others, knowing full well its garbage... or were you snookered in buying various dips that just keep on dipping and can't help yourself buying "the dip"? < help yourself buying the dip... stop. Don't buy anymore.... you'll be able to DCA yourself a nice long term HODL as the dip dongs say these days... in a few years. Til then take a breather. Or lose all your money. Just don't drag others down with you. It's rude.

[@Gattberserk]

i dun think so.. he tend to be early, but he is always right within 2-3 years. Sorry to burst ur bubble, just like the financial bubble ppl have been earning with easy money.

[@hawtwax]

Gee Dr Burry that’s a lot to happen in such a short period of time

[@sim6699]

Shadow stats

[@grantwatts681]

G'day guys, sorry I think your wrong, U.S debt to GDP during the lock-downs was around 97 -98%, however in September of 2019, the repo market was imploding, the fed had to pump in trillions of dollars to try to keep the Banksters afloat, this with stimulus caused the inflation, however the U.S just approved another1.7 trillion slush fund, which will, along with other rising price will doom loop, I think Burry is alright, another round of inflation about May, give or take a month.

[@lzeng78]

!!

[@djpuplex]

Broken clock Burry.

[@Gattberserk]

he is more right than you who just comment on internet lmao.

[@GoodwalkSpoiled]

The economy is rolling along. Unemployment is very low. There's not going to be a deep recession and the Fed will keep raising 25 bps at a clip.

[@MagicNash89]

Michael Burry has a very notable right-wing bias politically, he may be right on some things, sure, but its hard to take him seriously these days because of that bias.

[@RJC10101]

Just trade the charts! Anything else even from the so called guru’s is simply noise

[@supersecretninjame]

if you cry recession everyday during a lifetime, chances are you are gonna be right a few times.

[@Tendomcgoobin]

Can we stop giving him attention? Thanks.

[@williamjohnson9815]

Whatever happens , make sure you load up on tech stocks, you 30 somethings. You don't want the machines to beat you to the punch. It's tulip time and time to drive the stock market to levels that make no sense whatsoever, and then we can drive it even higher. How high is too high? Oh, don't worry about that. The machines, and corporate buybackers will keep it gong. Or maybe chartists will come up with other methods, or hedge funds will cover all their shorts. Yowsa, yowsa yowsa

[@youtubeitisisntit7333]

As long as Powell is the Fed Chairman, you can bet your bottom dollar that Inflation will be tamed. Invest accordingly.

[@grumblewoof4721]

Please can you only post good news ... thank you.

[@tastypymp1287]

Fluffy kitten videos this way 👉

[@sarwarkhan1185]

There is a second wave of inflation coming due to a lot of industries dying in developing world . Get ready folks I am buying every thing in need for next 5 years .

[@Paper.Power.Politics]

How would it be difficult for the United States government to fill up their oil reserves when Texas alone has billions of gallons of oil and billions of gallons of oil in the ground on reserves if the government just got out of the way and lattice energy companies do what they do best America wouldn’t be dependent on international corporation, when Texas alone can provide oil for all of the United States United States

[@tastypymp1287]

Ramin gets it wrong yet again.... This is the problem with YoY inflation analysis. Yes, inflation in gasoline CPI increased in 2021 but that's YoY compared to 2020. And we know that demand was utterly destroyed in 2020. So the 2021 'inflation' was simply a return to normal consumption and normal prices. Therefore to assert that energy prices are responsible (implying exclusively) for excess inflation is a fallacy. The real energy spike was in 2022 due to sanctions imposed on energy by US hegemony. It is interesting that Ramin has used inflation percentages rather than observe real oil barrel prices. If you observe the real data, real inflation was increasing long before the Russia/Ukraine conflict and you cannot dismiss the effect of huge monetary and fiscal stimulus. This is classic Investment Industrial Complex gaslighting.

[@jl6031]

Michael Burry’s „Warnings“ are worthless. He argues for his own benefit again and again. He can’t make any predictions. What we can do, is to see where we are now in the market cycles and act accordingly.

[@tastypymp1287]

'Market cycles'....

[@BigHenFor]

Which markets though? The regulated money and asset markets overseen by central banks in hand with gicernments? Or the unregulated Money Markets, that are ignored by central banks and governments, despite handling trillions of dollars moving in and out of the regulated money markets? Why it matters is because the regulated markets are also sensitive to what the unregulated markets do, desoite the latter having private banks catering to multibcommercial entities, high net worth individuals, and to sovereign nations. For example, Morgan Stanley and the Bank of America are the largest US banks that are exposed to high net worth individuals using the Buy, Borrow, Die strategy, to fund the purchase of assets they think will appreciate more than inflation and the costs of servicing the loan. And they will keep those appreciating assets, avoiding Capital Gains Tax. Often, they are Owners or CEO's putting up their stocks in their companies as collateral. Now the banks financing those loans will use securitisation as risk management against default, therefore bringing the debt out of the unregulated into the regulated sector. And brokers are doing the same. This is the Blind Spot in the Central Banks and Governments tag teams. Private banks are unregulated, and may only mention their exposure in passing in the footnotes of their accounts, so unless you don't mind wading through their accounts that tend to be obtuse and of many, many pages, no-one gets to know they're in trouble. Likewise in the Sovereign Treasury Bond market, regulated entities like pension funds are in the market for those, as well as banks from the Eurobond Markets who are unregulated. It has been noted, that the Fed is limiting the number of Treasury Bonds they are issuing,. The market for short-redemption dates is moribund. All the demand is for the 10-year and longer term ones, and so the coupon on those is falling, but they are still selling out with rates about 25% below what's on offer for 30-day term US Treasury Deposits. If pension funds are over exposed in the Derivatives markets, they will buy Treasury bonds to cushion the blow. And if Eurobond participants are head for the hills too, that will impact the returns of their clients, which maybe employers of US workers. That dynamic is currently ignored by Central Banks and governments everywhere, and that means that CBs have to raise base rates. There is a case for looking to what the international money markets are doing, for a more sensitive and accurate series of indications. The CV's and Gicernments are Ringmasters in their regulated market place. They to look and sound like they're in control of what's going on, but they're only MCs. The real work is done by the acts, and an significant amount is done outside the ring of regulated markets. And the Market Cycle is very much limited right now, as the underlying fundamentals of the global economy have been skewed by the amount of debt. Global Real GDP has been going sideways since 2008 at around 2% to 2.5%, but Global Debt has been going to the moon exponentially over the same period. So, either all that debt has to be repaid, or eroded away with inflation. The CBs will try and kill demand in the domestic economy, but the cause of inflation is offshore in the International Money Markets where the banks are becoming risk adverse and increasing rates for USD transactions. That's where the inflation is and the Fed can't touch it, as it has no control or influence there. There are also suggestions that China is running short of USD, but with Covid-19 burning through all at once, we won't know for sure until February. And their financial reporting is notoriously unreliable. So, uncertainty's back, with a vengeance.

[@tastypymp1287]

@@BigHenFor PARAGRAPHS!! FKING PARAGRAPHS!!

[@BigHenFor]

@@tastypymp1287 Sorry!

[@eternalv10killa]

Just say you dont understand macroeconomics and move on. 🙄

[@NonInflatable]

"Burry is arrogant". Little mouse of a commentator squeaks up.

[@MagicNash89]

Spoken like a true cultist🤣

[@cohan88]

$42 billion printed as vouchers for Ukraine, to fuel weapons manufacturers in the US. Y'all think the money printer stopped??... 🤣🤣🤣🤣