Michael Cembalest Returns | TCAF 129

On episode 129 of The Compound and Friends, Michael Batnick and Downtown Josh Brown are joined by Michael Cembalest to discuss: antitrust and mag 7 stocks, the federal debt, the ultimate value trap, chip supply chains, the 2024 election, the long-term ramifications of Covid lockdowns, weight loss drugs, and much more!
Thanks to Public for sponsoring this episode. Go to www.Public.com and activate options trading by March 31st to lock in your lifetime rebate.
More from Michael:
/ michael-cembalest-02b9...
00:00 - Cold Open
14:28 - Intro
15:45 - Back to the Future
26:06 - NVDA and TSMC Chip Manufacturing
27:54 - Market Concentration
32:37 - Risks we're not thinking about with AI investment
42:04 - Doomsayers vs. Reality
49:02 - COVID and grasping complexity
54:38 - The Debt Issue
01:07:14 - How cheap is China?
01:13:47 - Healthcare (GLP-1) Drugs
01:18:46 - Top Ten Surprises
01:20:01 - The Election, Politicians, and the No Labels Movement
01:35:02 - Favorites
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Investing involves the risk of loss. This podcast is for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon for investment decisions and is not a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell any securities. Michael Batnick and Josh Brown are employees of Ritholtz Wealth Management and may maintain positions in the securities discussed in this video. All opinions expressed by them are solely their own opinion and do not reflect the opinion of Ritholtz Wealth Management. See additional disclosures: www.ritholtzwealth.com/podcas.... “Likes” or other comments are not intended to be endorsements of Ritholtz Wealth Management, or their employees and are not compensated.
The Compound Media, Inc, an affiliate of Ritholtz Wealth Management, receives payment from various entities for advertisements in affiliated podcasts, blogs and emails. Inclusion of such advertisements does not constitute or imply endorsement, sponsorship or recommendation thereof, or any affiliation with, Ritholtz Wealth Management or any of its employees. See disclaimers: www.ritholtzwealth.com/podcas....
#thecompound #investing #stockmarket

[@TheCompoundNews]

Thanks to Public for sponsoring this episode. Go to www.Public.com and activate options trading by March 31st to lock in your lifetime rebate.

[@jonjone661]

Michelle Obama is the 3rd most likely candidate for next president on Fanduel. As inconsequential as that is, she would raise some money, get large portions of the population on her side and she’s less than 95 haha.

[@cliffpeebles9705]

These shows just keep getting better. Great job of talking about politicized subjects while staying nonpartisan. I always feel smarter after listening to your guests, and I can use all the help I can get.

[@midwestcannabis]

PEEEEEEEEEEEEEBBBBBBBBBBBBBZZZZZZZZZZZZ 🥳✌️🥳✌️🥳🥳

[@mclaughlin2008]

Agreed. I appreciate that he called out both sides of the issues and I too wish for more nuance.

[@chrishayes7966]

I may be the #1 angler who listens to this.

[@tbone8737]

It's getting redundant. Every single TCAF episode is must watch TV. Great job Josh and Michael

[@yuvraj94]

Every week. Fire guests Josh and Michael. Amazing job man y’all killing it.

[@stevenkitchen1780]

I met Michael Cembalest once about 10 years ago when I worked for JPM. It’s like meeting Jordan or Brady for investment bankers.

[@sameluckyguy]

A gentleman and teacher

[@haroldb6773]

Didn’t happen

[@jeffossola668]

Love the vibe coming in, had me hooked instantly as a Midwest Italian.

[@FrizzelFry]

Midwest Italian - first time I heard that one. I love it

[@Bonebit]

You guys don’t fail when it comes to guest/topics and everything in between. Best show in media (ANY) hands down. Michael Cembalest is fun to listen to; His vast knowledge of so many subjects.INCREDIBLE!🔥🔥🔥🔫

[@mclaughlin2008]

I didn't realize how a wide of a breadth of market impacting topics that Michael Cemblast could talk on. What a great interview.

[@volfan2053]

He was skeptical the first time but was like a kid in a candy store this session. Made me tear up a little.

[@toetheline1591]

Amazing episode. I've watched both of his appearances and the man is smart af. Top 3 guest all time.

[@TheCompoundNews]

Love to hear it, thanks!

[@davidwelcker4747]

Incredible man with broad and deep intelligence. Thanks, Compound!

[@TheCompoundNews]

Thanks for watching, David!

[@commycomentor9695]

Incredible guest!

[@kosi42]

After this episode I went on a Michael Cembalest binge and now I'm subscribed to his Eye on the Market podcast. He said in another interview because of his position, he reads like 2000 pages a week of stuff.

[@gpat138]

Go ahead and put this guy on the Mount Rushmore of guests along with Nick Colas and JC.

[@18jibjib]

Michael Cembalest is a fantastic guest. Please sign this guy to a max contract!

[@karliechen4738]

Great show! Thank you guys!

[@jsfnnyc]

Love, love, love this episode. And yes I watched the first Michael Cembalest show. Both great. 🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉

[@sumitkar8146]

The best financial podcast on KZbin- love this channel

[@ThaboHermanus]

The magic you have captured by switching this to “in person” is working wonders. I so dig that a person like Michael, who protects his personal and professional space, comes here a second time and really gets into the “setting”. He even had to get Josh and Batnick to do “favourites” because he actually values the way it wraps it up. Conversations are just mind blowing as usual, but the rapport with TCAFriends is something to be admired and long may it last. Good luck to ChatGPT and Gemini trying to replicate the kind of production you guys put out.

[@zeus_2001]

Cembalest is the best.

[@pauldegrouchy8842]

Incredible episode, thank you very much.

[@MatthewMS.]

I was suggested to watch The Compound by the KZbin algorithm a few months ago, I wish I knew of it earlier. Absolutely great shows every time, Josh, Michael & Ben are all incredible and have entertaining dynamics with each other and the awesome guests. LOVE ❤ The Compound. 🇺🇸📈 thx

[@michaelsumma]

This is always a great great show ! The guests are incredible and timely ! Thanks so much !

[@jasonhawkins2717]

Wow great guest!

[@Beakerandgreg]

Even better then second time! This guy is amazing.

[@TheCompoundNews]

Glad you enjoyed!

[@FrizzelFry]

I think this was my favorite episode so far

[@chrishaener8702]

Great show boys! Enjoyed every minute of it!

[@Jaymans29]

Ty again for another week of dope content guys 💪🏼

[@RobertPease]

One of the best episodes yet. Well done guys!

[@markd1908]

Been watching the Compound for quite a while now. Thank you so much for providing this content, AS TCAF WAYT, without charge. All of your guests are top notch, but Michael Cembalest is a step above. Could have listened to him for hours. Great show as usual and thanks again to the whole crew. Excellent!!!

[@AlwaysReliable]

Let's go!! Excited for the episode!

[@michaelskyros8803]

Amazing show. Love you guys.

[@marckramerdc]

Michael Cemblast is great!

[@caseycasey4494]

Any chance a flat mat could be made the size of the wooden succulent bowl and placed on the table? Maybe the mat could be your Compound sign. Great show BTW.

[@bakerbevcam4736]

Amazing taping.

[@dougbrown7413]

Excellent show gentlemen.

[@michaelmiddleton3311]

One of your best interviews.

[@MJLU280]

“Music is bigger than movies now”. I agree JB. Great show thanks guys MC is a very smart guy I get his institutional stuff always learn something new.

[@jimdemerath1032]

Fantastic show

[@Bet-the-Over]

Love this guest! Thank you

[@indermann9523]

Been waiting for this all day!

[@SamEbby]

excellent show.

[@stevemcleod4608]

I feel so grounded and informed, thanks for a repeat MC!

[@bobscott2872]

He loves you guys!

[@cruzalfaro556]

Another great show gents!!!🎉

[@Michael-tz7tj]

Fantastic again guys

[@owenwilliams1324]

Fantastic guest. Great show

[@gailsy1]

Great show!😊

[@chrishayes7966]

Love this podcast. Thank u!!!

[@TheCompoundNews]

Thanks Chris!

[@sameluckyguy]

One of the best financial podcasts

[@sameluckyguy]

Great show

[@usazar]

This was like a Scorsese movie, fantastic but I had to watch it in Three parts

[@redpillrepository]

Another great show! Cembalest is a giant and it was awesome seeing him again. Don't hate the crypto rally, Josh and chill with that old energy FUD! That shit's so 2021 lol. We're still early - get involved and listen to Batnik 🤙

[@steveuhlman2368]

another great show Guys, thank you, even the cold open was informative.

[@TheCompoundNews]

Thanks Steve!

[@davidlkleinman]

Great guest

[@frankstalzer6342]

Amazing show this week. Cembalest is one of the top guests I've seen on this show. Very knowledgeable & has some interesting perspectives on a range of topics. Josh and Batnick were also great, as always. Keep up the good work guys.

[@TheCompoundNews]

Thank you! - JB

[@Godisgreat301]

🔥🔥 great episode

[@nicklongo2939]

I'm here for the laughs but I have to say the scope of the guests on this show is breathtaking. Special thanks to Barry Ritholtz and all the rest o' youse.

[@JohnSuarezPeristlyeWealth]

Not to quote Willy Wonka, but this being available reminds me of when he said, "So shines a good deed in a weary world…" 😂

[@donyaschuk6538]

30 min mark look at Michael's eyes work. '15% of the market was GE and ATT'. Josh 'Are you sure about that?' Michael...50 50. Love it!

[@randystewart8899]

very informative, thanks

[@rainerluthershelley5131]

👋. Impressive guest .

[@guercioryan]

Love Michael

[@jeffperkins6437]

Great show fellas….keep it up….

[@RichardSimmons1]

This guy is highly intelligent!

[@Miggy2j]

Great work

[@TheCompoundNews]

Thanks!

[@sameluckyguy]

Mr Michael is a great teacher

[@feetwasher]

feels like Michael Cembalest is the smartest man alive

[@SMTraz]

Hell Yeah! I was hoping Mr. Cembalest was returning soon. Going be a great episode!

[@rainerluthershelley5131]

I was all 👂 👂 👂. Thanks Everyone.

[@momofomomofo]

Great chat

[@davidweinstein3865]

great guest, he could do another hour and it'd be just as good

[@midwestcannabis]

🎉🥳✌️ Party On Friends 🥳✌️🥳✌️

[@justinbryant4402]

Best intro/outro music in the game! Also the in-between isn't too bad either.

[@TheCompoundNews]

Appreciate it, Justin!

[@MatthewMS.]

24:28 💯 Josh Brown. 👏🏻🇺🇸

[@LuckyPunk13]

Top Quality as always..

[@TheCompoundNews]

Thank you!

[@matthiassalz1008]

i super appreciate the effort you put into your show. your guests are super smart and have a lot to say. do you notice though, that both of you tend to interrupt them while speaking?

[@myanrckay5959]

The real value of LLMs for companies are how they can enhance and augment existing services / products and enable new products. A LLM you can interact with via an app has limited value, but a product with more / better LLM enhanced features presumably is going to win categories.

[@midwestcannabis]

I Always hafta Comment! BEST INTRO MUSIC EVER. Gets my mood up always! ❤❤❤❤❤🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉

[@cliffpeebles9705]

Just like a Friday dance party, right MWC?

[@midwestcannabis]

@@cliffpeebles9705 I'd imagine so Peeebz! 🥳🥳🥳🤷‍♂️🤷‍♂️🤷‍♂️🤣🤣🤣🤣

[@liiliilii9921]

i feel conflicted about you guys interrupting the guests. I simultaneously enjoy and get irritated by your riffs.

[@PalmBeachJunk]

This is the JRE of financial podcasts. Truth through long form unedited expression

[@thewalruseater]

Don’t insult this show by comparing it to the JRE conspiracy hour

[@DAL201107]

Calm down. It’s a podcast. It’s good. Quit being such a d*mn fan boy of this for no reason. It’s not JRE or anything close to that genre. It’s The Compound. Two RIA guys talking to industry professionals about markets and life and everything in between. It’s a show. It’s not the second coming of Jesus. Relax.

[@AndrewUllman]

1:01:27 lol, the reaction to comprises. Fastest uh uh ever

[@aj8599]

Let's goooooooooooo DTJB

[@3quarter]

Wow!

[@marckramerdc]

I agree. Many of us are single-issue voters, irregardless of issue or side. It satisfies are human tendency to take the path of least resistance. Without getting too political, active voters and educated people accept the circus show of presidential elections for what it is, geopolitical entertainment. The issues are real. Collectively and as individuals we have to choose sides, knowing there is no one solution that will appease all concerned parties. And we can't in good conscience opt out. In the words of P. Diddy, “Vote or die.” 1:27:34

[@nowonderfreebeats2587]

Can't grow forever... Reminds me of Peter Lynch - " It's gone up this high it couldn't possibly go any higher" 😂

[@d.j.walker3671]

Write a law eliminating the ability to dodge estate tax through trusts. The donor class would hate that, but it should be done.

[@Holdm81]

"everyone's crazy" will be my favorite quote of 2024 lol

[@BlackBuzzzard]

Cool; Micheal lists names on the Armagedonist chart. I like the boldness.

[@thebarryman]

Why would insulin pumps be affected by a weight loss drug? They are primarily used by type 1 diabetics.

[@tdedmondjr]

Love the show. Only objection is El Salvador comment. You would be shocked at how well they are doing right now

[@marckramerdc]

I agree. I'm politics-out (politixed out?) and we still have 8 months to go until the election. 1:30

[@ddantes64]

Baci is awesome

[@rileyandersen7346]

This guy has worked at JP Morgan longer than I've been alive. A real company man this one.

[@sameluckyguy]

Brilliant discussion on human behavior

[@DF-dz4nu]

Citizens United, that’s why Congress will not touch the Mag 7.

[@Wemdiculous]

This guy’s been on camera talking for 10 minutes… Is the show starting now!? As if when the show starts matters.

[@whtmasterd]

Here is a thought, with all the COVID, 2008 GFC use AI to run various scenarios based on known data to assess the decision making that was made at the time. This might prove more useful than everyone's single focus opinions.

[@marckramerdc]

1:40:31 The Super Bowl Kelce/Swift Usher dynamic has that same feeling of shared culture. Good to remember that we geographical share space and our interests can overlap, especially after talking politics.

[@Yoloman79965]

I’m with Michael got into China dip, some cheap valuations.