Why this fund manager is loading up on Amazon | TCAF 136

On episode 136 of The Compound and Friends, Michael Batnick and Downtown Josh Brown are joined by Dan Davidowitz of Polen Capital to discuss: Sam Bankman-Fried's prison sentence, equity valuations, the problem with Apple, the bull case for Amazon, how Netflix became the king of streaming, potential challenges ahead for Nvidia, remembering Daniel Kahneman, and much more!
This episode is brought to you by Rocket Money. Cancel your unwanted subscriptions by going to: www.rocketmoney.com/compound
More from Dan:
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►00:00 - Cold Open
►09:27 - Intro
►11:12 - Dan and Polen Capital
►16:09 - Sam Bankman-Fried
►21:21 - Best start to a year since 2019
►37:45 - Top 10 holdings
►43:35 - Netflix Stock
►52:28 - Underweight the Mag 7?
►58:51 - The bull case for Amazon
►01:08:56 - Apple antitrust lawsuit
►01:14:44 - Generative AI
►01:19:59 - GLPs
►01:25:46 - Remembering Daniel Kahneman
►01:33:11 - Favorites
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Investing involves the risk of loss. This podcast is for informational purposes only and should not be or regarded as personalized investment advice or relied upon for investment decisions. Michael Batnick and Josh Brown are employees of Ritholtz Wealth Management and may maintain positions in the securities discussed in this video. All opinions expressed by them are solely their own opinion and do not reflect the opinion of Ritholtz Wealth Management.
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#thecompound #investing #stockmarket

[@TheCompoundNews]

This episode is brought to you by Rocket Money. Cancel your unwanted subscriptions by going to: www.rocketmoney.com/compound

[@zdruk1]

Scott Baio!!!

[@CalebFranzen]

Great guest. Love the stock-heavy focus rather than market and macro-heavy focus.

[@TheCompoundNews]

Thanks for watching, glad you enjoyed it!

[@MountainGoater]

Couldn't agree more! Great show

[@manifestinvest]

Amen

[@ryanmocerino7698]

one of my fav episodes in months, this dude is brilliant

[@tg14764]

unexpectedly one of the best guests in a while. great episode

[@Yaw_Jr]

Yup - this guy is an awesome guest! Brilliant, he needs to come back and drop some more knowledge!

[@davidwysocki1004]

Great show Josh and Michael, and Davidowitz was a fabulous guest. I really liked him especially since he is both a stock picker and a long-term investor. (If he were a dividend-growth stock picker and long-term investor I would LOVE him.) Good stuff!

[@cliffpeebles9705]

It was a great show David.

[@jonnagap87]

Love the focus on stocks rather than general macro and market sentiment talk. This is all that matters to individual investors. Hope you guys stick with this. I just subscribed today even though been following you guys for a while now.

[@davidrenner4291]

Good stuff fellas, nice change up from macro episodes. Along with Dan Ives, my 2 fav episodes.

[@mikerusso7095]

Awesome as always. This guy is the anti-Dan Ives. Anti AAPL and semi (haha) anti-NVDA. Like all of us, nobody (even the expert) is 100% correct.

[@danmcneil2940]

@@mikerusso7095 agree, enjoyed having a guest speak to the other side of APPL

[@dinosaurdude5668]

Please talk Stocks more

[@WhiteCarbon7]

Yes! More of a balance with equities and macro. We keep hearing its a stock pickers market, well, I want to hear from the industry experts.

[@GWHEATCUBS16]

Agreed, and less of the megacaps we already hear about daily. Would love to hear about some good small-/mid-cap stories!

[@dinosaurdude5668]

@@GWHEATCUBS16 well said.

[@jluther1755]

I'd Pay a dollar to See JB rollerblading in his Daisy Dukes 😳🤙

[@MattPayne88]

Great show. Really enjoyed this guest! Very interesting listening! Thanks all!

[@TheCompoundNews]

Thanks for watching!

[@Marchingforward8to5]

One of may favorite episodes! Great guest!

[@TheCompoundNews]

Thanks!

[@FrankPatrick]

Michael - Thanks for the Tokyo Vice recommendation. Just finished bingeing the two seasons. An excellent show.

[@Jolt139]

Great episode and guest! Dan has strong Adrien Brody vibes from Succession haha

[@eh7599]

Smart guest

[@timothywoods5397]

Value Line was the only tool we had back then.😊

[@cliffpeebles9705]

Remember the Value Line mutual funds?

[@eroldmerko]

Solid episode gents!

[@Bet-the-Over]

Refreshing to hear a guest be specific

[@steveuhlman2368]

great episode Guys, thanks! I bit of memory lane with Value Line - my Dad and I used to get that delivered (in a binder) a few times a year. and then I seem to remember there was info in Barrons that was from Value Line back in the day. Then, the Corning mention, I believe it was "glass for cellphones/t.v." too, lol.

[@redpillrepository]

Stocks talk 🤙This is a welcomed shift from all the other stuff out here obsessing over ETF's. You guys deliver, constantly and tirelessly.

[@macaulay425]

I started listening a couple months ago and you guys reallybdo a great job. Im 36 have retirment and a fun account on robinhood and own 2 properties. Really enjoy some fun relaxing stock talk

[@davidwilson9976]

Duncan is a super hero 🐝🐝🐝

[@cliffpeebles9705]

Even more than.

[@jayman3575]

Another great show. Thanks for the book recommendation!

[@tbone8737]

and another great pod. JB & MB you guys are the best.

[@shirtdirt1874]

Why does Josh think retail investors that lost money in FTX is gonna be ok? I knew a Turkish immigrant middle class family that lost $45k on FTX, they were really struggling when they lost their money, I don't think that was "OK".

[@dsnyder649]

Great episode and excellent guest!! Thanks guys!

[@TheCompoundNews]

Thank you!

[@MindOverMatterBjj420]

Great guest! Really smart guy.

[@barbarajoruis903]

My 1977 semester bill for SUNY SB was $770 for tuition, room , and fees. I saved a copy of this bill when I came across it in my "stuff".

[@barbarajoruis903]

CORRECTION It was Jan. 1974 not 1977

[@lurkingcaro]

The guest sounds like the Bob's Burgers guy!!!!! Shout out to Dunc!!

[@jeffreyvolyn4529]

Great episode. Love Dan and his thought process. Intensely logical. Hoping he’s wrong about NVIDIA. I think NVIDIA understands how cyclical their business is right now. That’s why they’re focusing on software, systems and a massive ecosystem. Time will tell.

[@TheGreatOne428]

Excellent episode with an excellent guest . Made some great points. Better than some mythical technical analysis bs.

[@donnaski7134]

Represent Boca! Finally a local Boca Raton investment professional on the Compound and Friends. Local Boca Raton "just a housewife" 😊 stock trader here. Love Josh Brown and the Compound.

[@TheCompoundNews]

Thank you!

[@voicification]

I had 20% of my total net worth in Amazon in 2021. When it fell 56% - it didn’t feel good but I never batted an eye and bought more at 90. This doesn’t include what’s in my holdings of SPY and QQQ for all the reasons he cited and I think Amazon will only go higher. I feel similarly about the others especially ServiceNow. In general, My investment philosophy is a carbon copy of Dan’s. I haven’t felt this validated since my wife said OK to marrying me. 😂 Just when I think the compound can’t do better they do it next week! Michael has become much better and calmer. Good job!

[@michaelsimpson2103]

Great episode! Real numbers and real companies not fluff😁

[@4inmontreal]

Thanks for another great episode. Totally love the conversation and learnt so much from Dan.

[@niqolustrades]

Current MBA Student at UofM we are using the value line One page sheet analysis model right now! The big green book in the library is still updated! Go Blue

[@mitchRaph10]

One minute in, love it already. LG.

[@robertsimon6500]

Great show I would advise both you guys before you get to old hit the road and go see America not on the inner state highway's but on the state highway's. Get a few Butler Motorcycle maps check a state you want to see ,you can even choose the state you live in as a starter. The ride will not take your breath away like when your on a bike but it will be close. Take your Colorado trip and multiply it by 1000 that is what you can expect see and feel. Most people will go Europe and or take cruise but never spend the time to see the USA. Thanks for the book ideas I got 3 for my Kindle.

[@cliffpeebles9705]

Neil Peart of Rush had the same philosophy.

[@robertsimon6500]

@@cliffpeebles9705 Yes I forgot that he a penned a few books, I went back on Amazon and bought a couple of them. I think he road a BMW.

[@rossofilmsinternational8625]

Commentary on Amazon was on point

[@JanEhrlickman]

Awesome show. Keep it up CP

[@SPmbp111]

this guest is really natural on a podcast

[@LuckyPunk13]

Great Show as always!

[@ethannaka1822]

Costco has been expensive forever, keep hating.

[@jeffossola668]

Let's goooooooo. Missed my WAYT 🎉🎉🎉

[@jtprx7589]

This guest was great!

[@pathflight9803]

The ww2 show was awesome and better than than most stuff on Netflix

[@user-cq3vm6cy6r]

Another solid episode!! I did enjoy the stock specific discussion and insight from Dan Davidowitz.

[@TheCompoundNews]

Thanks for watching!

[@williamc4221]

Most of my cousins are plumbers or electricians. They do very well for themselves.

[@cliffpeebles9705]

Josh made a great point about learning a trade. Not many people want to get their hands dirty.

[@sb77de]

yes but are they able to afford iPhones?! 🙄

[@meknizd7739]

Great Show!

[@TheCompoundNews]

Thanks!

[@floyd9223]

What a great talk, what a great channel.

[@TheCompoundNews]

Appreciate it!

[@tomchappel7117]

Great show as always, thanks for the content.

[@TheCompoundNews]

Thanks for watching!

[@arod3295]

LOVE YOU DOWNTOWN JOSH BROWN ❤❤🎉🎉😊😊‼️‼️ Bro said he was cooking on CNBC. BRO BE COOKIN’ THAT ALPHA UP ‼️‼️

[@Matthewbyrd86]

man thank you for the Zoetis tip. The company looks great. Love the Thermo Fisher and Nike shout-outs too. I also own the AI plays but have buying companies like that as well!

[@redpillrepository]

Very interesting point about Stryker, Josh. The first move in stocks is usually wrong so I agree with you.

[@SMTraz]

Great guest and very smart fund manager. However, this fund still hasn’t beat the index (R1K growth) for any time period over the last 10 years. Very few active funds beat their index.

[@tlee7653]

Good discussion.

[@no_goo]

Can someone steal Michael’s laptop or just give him control of the projector. 🤦

[@howardcrabtree1440]

Please try to trim the interjections down by about 75%. Don’t make me fit you with shock collars . :)

[@oghowie]

Just Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet is 32% of his holdings?

[@muhammadtayyab6440]

he still doesn't like Mag7 :) its a great well-balanced portfolio by the way.

[@oghowie]

@@muhammadtayyab6440 But his top 3 holdings are Mag7?

[@windycitybeats6724]

If you buy the SPY it's basically the same thing 😂

[@doubleclick21]

What a breath of fresh air to hear about stocks, and particularly from a longer term investor. My average hold is prob 7+ years. Still holding/just selling some names that I loaded up on in 2011! This and Crossing Wall St guy a few months back were great.

[@JanEhrlickman]

Great show.

[@TheCompoundNews]

Thank you!

[@maakrzy9648]

Please more on individual stocks - less macro. Great interview

[@midwestcannabis]

Party On With The Compound and Friends! 🥳🥳🥳🥳🥳🥳🥳

[@TheBlawdfire]

Interesting discussion. Tough cold open though - feels a little out of touch to complain about college tuition costs when you have residential property in two of the hottest markets in the world and own a gym on the side...

[@OpusWon]

Is the business travel inclination a result of work from home?

[@danielmonyhan7834]

Great show as always. The next time you guys come to Colorado take in a concert at the Red Rocks Ampitheater. It will not disappoint.

[@rossmacintosh5652]

To visualise just how big Amazon's AWS data centres' 40,000,000 square feet is, it's about 11.4 times the floor space of New York's Freedom Tower (One World Trade Centre). Imagine eleven and a half of those buildings!

[@Katsuya89]

As a south Florida native, i have to check out Tucci's. Ive been looking for a wood oven pizza joint.

[@smitd4ty]

Y'all were in the Springs😮?! No way!! In my town and I missed you?!

[@maikvoets3628]

When looking at Apple from NY perspective it might seem there’s no more growth left. Id argue there’s still significant growth opportunity with the group that’s joining the middle class in coming years. Esp. South/ south East Asia. Also Africa. Purchasing power is rising fast and people want iPhone.

[@doubleclick21]

The problem right now is that it's priced like it's already achieving that growth potential you mention... and as far as the reporting goes for the past several quarters, it's not.

[@BaroloBartolo]

1:37:39 imagining when I was a wayward early 20’s stoner hiking garden of the gods every weekend, good times 😂

[@davebosworth1778]

Plus every charting site you go to since before the tech boom list those in their default watchlist. First thing newbies have ever seen.

[@joealtamuro]

I’m with Josh regarding SBF.

[@bigwoodsMN]

Let me know when you want to see more fly over country. There's some real stuff between NYC & LA!

[@cliffpeebles9705]

Josh should do standup.

[@no_goo]

I cant wait for the crowd work shorts

[@ZoffPhx]

Does the Gazebo still exist in Boca. It used to be inside one potato two potato inside the kitchen in the back speak easy style Amazing French Mediterranean food. Only 5 or 6 tables

[@donnaski7134]

I was there years ago but I don't know if it is still there or not. Great place, good food.

[@user-yc4vc3sj1e]

This guy is absolutely dependable ,he just gives aura of capability and a nose of dillengency.

[@jimbojimbo6873]

Damn didnt know Josh had a podcast

[@smachsimo]

The $10k test doesn’t say it’s a luxury good, it says that the Apple ecosystem has high stickiness

[@MJLU280]

One bite everybody knows the rules. You should have Davey on the show. Eat pizza and talk stocks.

[@jluther1755]

I'm pretty sure he's been on before and I Have a Great memory for A Hawaiian pot head Farmer

[@brianhurst2740]

80 directing credits. 2G’s pizza. Got it.

[@TheCompoundNews]

I wish I had 80 credits, haha

[@lukitasm]

33:49 I thought gambling numbers increased before and thru recessions

[@andrews57217]

Who will be the first publicly traded company to cross the $1T annual revenue milestone? This is going to be a big deal. AMZN is a good bet, which I own. But WMT I have not owned, but think it’s wise to own both. FTC could always force Amazon to separate though.

[@ezramullen4551]

Has his fund beat the s&p or other relevant index?

[@gassman55]

I own theses stocks too. I do wonder about Alphabet but believe they are worth holding to see how they position themselves. I may take some profits but only 10% of holdings.

[@rossmacintosh5652]

1:09:10 What's with the smoke outside the window?

[@ryantinney]

Boilers emitting steam which heats the buildings.

[@zachgorman41]

Hell yeah go Noles!!

[@Stavros_Steve_Deriziotis]

Tucci's Pizza is great!

[@jbrc1322]

Federal inmates serve an average of 85% of their sentence, which means that they are required to serve a minimum of 85% of their sentence before becoming eligible for release.

[@Miggy2j]

Sam might not have killed anyone with his hands but I'm sure there were a lot of people who chose to end their lives because of his actions

[@trell019]

3:00 this lets me know how much they love eachother... NO DIDDY

[@warriorpoet4423]

JB and MB seemed defensive when Dan brought up how overvalued individual stocks are... I wonder why ?

[@jbmar-jx7uv]

how da fk did downtown get 'ex politician anthony weiner, nyc'? wtf

[@alexnhan8527]

There is no parole for federal prisoners. According to Google

[@XxXK9]

Re upload?

[@_retrospecs]

Love you guys but you’re sleeping on Apple TV Severance is HBO level television

[@jackbailey7037]

FTX victims will get some money back, but the real winners will be the law firms that are handling the case.

[@mitchRaph10]

PLTR is in the equine industry

[@mitchRaph10]

Speculation - would Netflix get more value long-term if they bought Fubo

[@cyb32011]

The start of the show is stressing me out. Having a junior in high school who is trying to get into Gainesville or FSU and grinding hard as hell with AP courses. The last thing I thought I was going to listen to, for the start of the show was my life.