Mickeleh’s DoubleTake on Red | Response to NerdCubed

[@PogieJoe]

Mickeleh, I'm a poor college student and I would gladly toss some money every month to a Patreon for you. :)

[@garyc]

"Remember when they went widescreen?" I do! :) Another great video, lovely of you to keep us updated, it really has been a soft launch so farx

[@mickeleh]

+Gary C Smoking out the old-timers with panics of the past.

[@garyc]

Haha, there's always something new to worry about :D

[@SomeoneBeginingWithI]

Watching this over a year later, and I think you were right about the inoculation theory.

[@juststeveschannel]

Not that it's any big deal or makes me into anything special, but I GOT MENTIONED IN A MICKELEH VIDEO! Now _MY_ head is swimming.

[@mickeleh]

+juststeveschannel swimming is excellent exercise. Even for heads.

[@wtfpantera]

Sweet goddess my comment got featured in Mickeleh's video! It was great reading your response but it's excellent hearing your extended thoughts. NerdCubed's video made me turn off AdBlock on YT, yours just might make me consider supporting some people through Patreon. It was always tempting, but I have a slight aversion to paid subscriptions. Need to look into that more. Regardless - thanks!

[@mickeleh]

+wtfpantera sweeter goodness.... I wouldn't have watched NerdCubed’s video without your prompt.

[@fivebyfivewhat]

You remain the most engaging and eloquent KZbinr that I watch, thanks again!

[@mickeleh]

+fivebyfivewhat Thank you very much for saying so. In the late hours of rewriting and honing, I'll keep it in mind that it pays off.

[@DaveJGiles]

As a musician I'm excited :)

[@mickeleh]

+Dave J Giles As an excellent musician, you should be very excited.

[@DaveJGiles]

that's very kind of you

[@Perspectologist]

I love this kind of analysis. I used to buy CDs and then I started buying MP3s. I liked the idea of possessing my own music files. I finally gave in and joined the music streaming revolution. The convenience and selection was just too tempting. It is interesting to see how the world changes. If KZbin displeases enough big content creators then they will be creating an opening for a competing service. There is always a balance. I'll be watching the seesaw.

[@mickeleh]

+Perspectologist It's fascinating that music was so late to flip from being something that people wanted to own to something they were happy to rent. There always was radio. And there were jukeboxes. But people wanted record collections, then tapes, then CDs. I suppose it's because people will listen to a favorite tune or artist over and over and over. Where it is rare (except among very young children) to want to watch a movie multiple times. (Star Wars, HP, LOTR, and Casablanca are notable exceptions)

[@juststeveschannel]

+mickeleh Is there anyone of us old enough to remember LPs that doesn't miss the album cover art, though? I mean, I know there's album cover art on a CD, but it's just not the same, is it?

[@mickeleh]

+juststeveschannel I think that's one of the reasons that vinyl is making a comeback. It isn't just the art, but it's the space for liner notes.

[@NickGreyden]

+mickeleh The artwork from the 60's and 70's on vinyl can easily define the whole period in the USA be it political, social, or cultural.

[@drnoise]

I watched the whole thing. Your piece of pie has grown! :)

[@mickeleh]

+doctornoise Well, thank youl

[@UFOBobTV]

Very insightful. Thanks. Liked your shrinking ending.

[@KeithShizuo]

merch ay... i want a mickeleh-in-the-bubble Christmas decoration

[@sean2mush]

Thanks for the videos on this topic, Is the same requirement needed to receive money from youtube red the same as it was previously i.e to be partnered? Will they also be counting watchtime from videos which are unpartnered channels, wouldn't this also water-down the the fraction, or is that such a small proportion watchtime to be that insignificant a factor?

[@mickeleh]

+sean2mush I don't have access to the data to answer this.

[@jetkirby]

is the denominator based on all youtube videos? i thought there was going to be different genres, like "music" pool, and "gaming" pool, and "learning" pool, etc if people switch to youtube red for all their music needs, will that really influence non-musical youtube channels?

[@mickeleh]

+jetkirby I hope you are right. Do you have a source for that?

[@jetkirby]

i believe i heard it on the Hello Internet podcast(with brady haran and cgp grey), or from totalbiscuit, I'm currently doing a quick search through the videos/podcasts during the sections they talked about it to see if i can find the exact subject and i will reply again if i find it

[@mickeleh]

+jetkirby I found this in a post by Fullscreen to their members: A statement from Fullscreen (my network) to their members states: “KZbin will total up all the income it sees from KZbin Red and divide that among creators based on each creator’s share of total minutes watched by KZbin Red users. (The only exception to this is music videos, which will be paid based on share of views, not share of watch time.)” So apparently there are two pools: music and videos. But it's not clear how money is split between them.

[@ariadnaph]

It's patreon time

[@atk_ogre2185]

waw, never thought you replied back! Im a very adept spanish fan , i hope you can still do videos like these, im not that big of a doctor who fan haha.

[@mickeleh]

+Pepito Palote Thanks. There will be more like this

[@NickSheridanVids]

I completely understand fractions, but being in the UK I had no idea what a numerator and a denominator was until today. We tend to just call them "the top one" and "the bottom one" ;)

[@mickeleh]

+VidSheridan I think most people in the US do that as well.I don't really now, since it has been a very long time since I set foot in a mathematics classroom.

[@NickSheridanVids]

+mickeleh And yet "numerator" and "denominator" are still fairly popular words.. I blame math rock :)

[@RichardB1983]

There are a huge number of unknowns - so it's difficult to quantify - but from a creator's point of view - some viewers will switch from KZbin normal to Red - and therefore creators will earn money from Red instead of earning money from ads for that user. For creators to benefit - the average Red income per view only needs to exceed the average ad income per view. At the current going rate - you'd have to watch a huge number of videos per month before you'd generated $10 of ad revenue for KZbin - so you should expect Red income views to earn more on average.

[@mickeleh]

+RichardB1983 No question that the money pot from subscriptions will be much richer than the money pot from advertising. The fact that 27% of Spotify users generate 91% of their income is telling.

[@mickeleh]

+RichardB1983 I talked about this in my first video about Red. I wish I had re-emphasized it in my second one. I there’s a third, it will be front and center. Thanks for bringing it up.

[@ThoughtsFromClosets]

I would definitely buy a Mickeleh t-shirt

[@nancydan1234]

Thanks for the update on red. I'm just a viewer, so this does not affect me financially (my son has a very small account with

[@mickeleh]

+Nancy Dan That, they will do. Prepare to be annoyed.

[@nancydan1234]

:-) That may be a fatal mistake on the part of KZbin as they may lose viewers. KZbin for me is entertainment, I come and go as I please. There is nothing here that I NEED to watch. I'll head over to Netflix and do more binge watching instead. Also, if the primary age of viewers is young teens, will they have the means to pay a monthly fee or will their parents agree to pay for it? Anyway, thanks for the review.

[@matthewkinnear2402]

Anyone remember KZbin panda?

[@aKiBlu]

Thank you for the info!

[@samuelshoesmith]

I liked it micheleh! Who knows what the future holds.

[@loganstokols5478]

I checked the math, because it seemed to me that the pie would get bigger at the same rate that the denominator in your equation grows. In other words, each new user adds more cash so your total revenue remains constant. This isn't quite the case, though. The relevant issue is the average time spent on youtube per customer. Obviously if each subscriber watches lots and lots of different videos, their subscription fee is spread thin over lots of creators. But you'd have to listen to a lot of music to get that $10 a month to be less than the paltry ad fees you currently earn. If we look at your, Mickeleh's, entertainment output as one person spending one minute on youtube watching your videos, then in a subscription-based world you are earning C/T dollars per minute of output. Here C is the amount of cash a user pays into the pool per month (after google takes their cut, so this is 55% of $10 or whatever it turns out to be), and T is the number of minutes an average user spends viewing/listening to youtube each month. I derived this by letting S be the total number of subscribers, M the number of minutes anyone spends watching your videos (in aggregate), and N the number of minutes of youtube watched worldwide by Red subscribers. Then your revenue is CSM/N, we divide by M to get your payment per minute and then T=N/S. Hank Green estimates that under the current ad-based system, a user watching 2 hours of content per day (3650 minutes per month) will generate about $1 for creators. Dividing, Hank must think that each minute watched creates upwards of 1/3650 dollars of creator revenue. On the other hand, in the new system a user will generate an estimated $5.50 for creators ("over half" of $10, but with some holywood accounting this number could be lower, reader beware), so C=5.5. Therefore we would need T= 20075 (or about 11 hours per day) in order to get the unit rate as low as Hank thinks it is now, to have C/T=1/3650. So the question is, do you think there will be a scenario where the average user listens to more than 11 hours per day of music? An average account, on an average day, used for over 11 hours. I'm not sure how to get real data, but that just seems like a lot of music to me. I believe some power users will be listening to music 15 hours per day maybe, and a radio that plays music in a restaurant all day would log 15 hour days, but surely there would be other subscribers who listen to a few hours a day. I listen to less than 3 hours a day on average. Of course I don't subscribe to a music service, so probably people who do subscribe listen to more music than I do.

[@mickeleh]

+Logan Stokols Excellent point. It's virtually impossible to watch enough KZbin to generate $10 of ad revenue. I talked about that in my first video on KZbin Red. I should have brought that into this one as well. Thanks for pointing it out.

[@roadrunner1896]

The whole music streaming thing is a very complicated topic here in Germany due to the GEMA rules for compensating artists. If youtube red can get a deal with GEMA working withing those lines, I will most likely sign up and switch my music streaming from other already available streaming services over to youtube. I'd probably even drop other subscriptions for financial reasons. KZbin red would hopefully not only give me access to listing to "free" music, but also vlogs, skits or other videos I would like to watch that have GEMA registered music in the background or feature a small bit of it and are currently blocked for viewers over here. That would be an even bigger perk than the music itself. But so far I couldn't find a reliable article on the negotiations between youtube and GEMA regarding youtube red, so who knows if and how that will happen. But if i got it, I would certainly spend a lot more time on youtube as compared to now due to music. Sorry, Mickeleh! I feel twice as bad as after four years of not watching Doctor Who anymore I also stopped watching your reviews this season. And I sometimes forget to turn off my ad blocker. I became a horrible youtube viewer. I am sorry.

[@SpuTalks]

Yeah, I feel the same way - knowing less now than 1 and 2 weeks ago. And this digs even deeper into things we don't know. I'm not sure that bigger problem is really a problem though. It depends on how the money is divided between music and video content. I fairly certain that there won't be one big, big pool for both. Simply because they are measured in different metrics. I'm too tired right now to look up the source for this, but music on Google Play Music and music videos on KZbin don't get their share based on watch time, but based on views / plays. I haven't heard / read anything about how the money is divided between those 2 pools though. But number of music plays won't affect videomaker money at all if it's some sort of fixed split. On another note: Shouldn't the denominator be the total watch time of all Red subscribers instead of KZbin total watch time?

[@mickeleh]

+Spu Talks I know as much and as little as you do. Music will be paid per play (as on other services) and video will be paid per watch time. No word on how money will be split between music and video. According to a blog post at Fullscreen, you are correct that the pool is limited to watch time among Red subscribers. “KZbin will total up all the income it sees from KZbin Red and divide that among creators based on each creator’s share of total minutes watched by KZbin Red users. (The only exception to this is music videos, which will be paid based on share of views, not share of watch time.) ” www.fullscreen.com/2015/10/26/what-youtube-red-means-for-creators/

[@SpuTalks]

Hey, don't undersell yourself! You know as much as I do, and I know quite a lot.

[@lissy42nerdfighter]

merch idea: your face in the bubble on a mug.

[@mickeleh]

+Freakazette Possible. How about a line of bubble bath soaps?

[@lissy42nerdfighter]

Hey, it worked for Zoella

[@BlameItOnGreg]

I was under the impression that the way they were calculating the distribution of the red money was on a per user basis, so each individual red user's non-Google portion of the $10 (the more-than-half of that) would be distributed to the channels that they watched within that month based on the ratio of their individual watch times. In that way, if there was a red user that only watched one two minute video in a month, the channel that that video was on would get the full portion of that red users subscription money. But I guess what you're saying is that they're basing it on watch ratios of all payed and free users, and not just on payed users, let alone individually per payed user. Is that really how they're calculating it?

[@BlameItOnGreg]

If that's the case, that is also disturbing from a red viewer standpoint, because part of your money would be going to support channels that you might totally not want to support, just because other people (possibly not even paying people) spent time watching their videos.

[@mickeleh]

+BlameItOnGreg The only way to control where you money goes is to support channels through Patreon. I'm sure KZbin has the capability to track individuals and what they watch-they already do that-but for whatever reasons, they’ve decided to pool all the money and all the views and divided back out according to watch-time totals, not personal favorites.

[@vaj99]

Yesterday I wanted to make a point but I thought What's the point. To get to the point to make a point just for the point of it serves no point. The point is my point may seem pointing in a pointless direction to the points in your mind. Do you get my point cus if not this point has no point.

[@mickeleh]

+vaj99 How about today? Would you like to make a point today? The floor is yours.

[@michaelkrumbein5807]

"There are known knowns. These are things we know that we know. There are known unknowns. That is to say, there are things that we know we don't know. But there are also unknown unknowns. There are things we don't know we don't know." Donald Rumsfeld, possibly a secret consultant at Google, now that I think of it.

[@mickeleh]

+Michael Krumbein Here's a known that may be unknown to you about Donald Rumsfeld: Rumsfeld was CEO of a company called General Instrument from 1990-1993. GI was one of the main corporations competing to define the standards of HDTV in the U.S. (GI subsequently was sold to Motorola and then after that to Arris corporation. They make most of the cable set-top boxes in the United States.)

[@michaelkrumbein5807]

***** And the conspiracy deepens....

[@LauraDFTBA]

Patreon is my only concern, especially for new creators or those with niche channels. It would be a shame if creators found their Patreon revenues plummet from audiences switching to Red. Obviously it's not a 'one or the other' scenario but with an young/new-adult audience (many of whom I see on tumblr worrying about whether they can afford prescriptions let alone subscriptions) it's not outside of possibility that people will cancel Patreon subscriptions, especially if they feel the music streaming and offline access is a better investment than the warm glow of supporting a favourite creator. Or maybe I'm projecting my own bias since I'm in the group that are in the 'one or the other' corner. Also: yes, open a patreon account.

[@mickeleh]

+Laura Simmons Everyone is trying to guess how this will shake out. Different folks will make different choices. That much is easy to say. But how many will switch from Patreon to Red, and how many will do both is very hard to say. Looking at Spotify for clues, just over one-fourth of their audience is paying. But that one-quarter provides over 90 percent of their revenue.

[@Fluid_Chaos]

You should definitely create a Patreon. I can't sign up for much, but I'm sure my dollar-or-whatever would be more than you get from me now. Honestly, I've never understood why it isn't just a given: Make videos, Make a Patreon. Takes a few minutes to make a *simple* Patreon, and it doesn't seem like there's a downside. I wouldn't sign on to support everyone, but I would support most of my favorite KZbinrs (like you) and feel better about myself in the process. Patreon seems very win/win to me.

[@mickeleh]

+Michael Reed Frankly, what's kept me from doing it is the thought of creating special “rewards.” It's all I can do to put my regular videos up. I"m not about to take on the burden of doing extra stuff-even for the paying customers.

[@Fluid_Chaos]

+mickeleh Speaking as a future supporter, I don't really need prizes or stretch tiers. You could take a page from the (insanely successful) CGP Grey Patreon and just have different levels of thanks for increasing dollar amounts. (Separate Page of Thanks, Description, Video End Screen Text, Special Message of Thanks at the End, etc.)* The biggest reward from my perspective would be continued and enthusiastic output, which wouldn't require any special effort, really. I say go for it. *It's true that he has a wallpaper pack, but he had the wallpapers already--it wasn't a specific Patreon effort. Plus, it's only at the $3 level.

[@DeusViator]

Definitely open a Patreon. I don't pledge massive amounts but I generally do £1/month or £1/video to a lot of different people that I like and I know that that gives far more worth to them than they would get from my subscribing to RED or what they get from the ad revenue. (Also I know this is way after the discussion but NaNoWriMo pushed my watch schedule back by a month.)

[@dangerouslytalented]

I think I know where your maths might fall down. You are looking at Red as a whole, while Google might be dividing up the Red money through watch time for individuals. So if one person on Red ONLY watches Mickeleh videos, (paying, lets say, $10 per month) the you get the WHOLE creator chunk of that person's subscription fees. ($5.50) And if another person only watches or listens to music, they will divide the subscription fees amongst all those music creators. This will give a huge advantage for long form content and things that keep people engaged in that particular channel, and stuff that encourages bingewatching.

[@mickeleh]

+dangerouslytalented A lot of people have been asking for that. But it doesn't seem to be in the cards. Do you have any source for that? If you want to determine who gets your money, then Patreon is the way to go. As far as I can determing, In KZbin Red all the money is pooled and divided by watch time.

[@dangerouslytalented]

***** Maybe it is supposed to be a Patreon killer too. Or perhaps they are trying to get the algorythms right so that the creators with the most worthwhile youtube specific content get the most revenue. Like you said, it's got no publicity because they are still testing it.Either way, some channels will be big winners and some will crash and burn because of lost revenue.

[@MathAndComputers]

+dangerouslytalented I think that's what a lot of us had assumed, since it's really the only thing that would make sense, but it seems that Google has decided to do the silly thing that few seem to think reasonable. C.G.P. Grey in the most recent episode of Hello Internet (#50) has also described the troubling interpretation that Mickeleh described. It means that we basically can't support the creators whose content we consume via Red; we can (approximately) only support the creators whose content *other* people consume. What a wreck. I had such high hopes for it too... :(

[@dangerouslytalented]

Neil G. Dickson There is a clue that many would have missed: If you look at analytics, the most important measure was always views... Until this week. This week, they put watch time first an foremost, and views is now found under watch time. If you want to see the number of views you have, you have to look under watch time. They want longer views, not more of them. This means that they are concentrating on long form videos, and that means that music is not going to be what youtube concentrates on. An educated guess, I don't know how badly educated it is.

[@mickeleh]

+dangerouslytalented KZbin has been stressing watch time in all their communications to users for the past few years. Analytics may have only just now caught up with that. But the policy was there. In terms of how prominently they will feature a video, it's been watch time over views for a while now.

[@atk_ogre2185]

i love you mikeleh

[@mickeleh]

+Pepito Palote Love you, too.

[@zeedar412]

So the way this formula is constructed, long videos might become more popular with content creators? (I know you don't like that expression, sorry) That would be a big change, as (as far as I understand) short videos are better suited for ad revenue, but longer videos contribute to your watchtime more which gets you more KZbin Red money. Or do people just stop watching halfway through? I wonder what the stats are with these sort of videos.

[@mickeleh]

+zeedar412 Long videos are great... provided you can keep people watching. KZbin provides creators with detailed information about when people abandon videos. This is an environment where there is always something potentially better just a click away.

[@Nhoj31neirbo47]

Skittish ambitious youtubers are going to have much more complex mathematics to deal with than sub, views and watch time counts as the monetization of this platform evolves. Interesting to hear some of the possibles from you regarding this. ~ idea for merch; 'Dr. Dale Furbish's Universal Immunity Serum', aka, a small vial of Seattle tap water.

[@mickeleh]

+John OBrien Would that need FDA approval?

[@Nhoj31neirbo47]

Not in a truely Free and Democratic America.

[@oliviaportela4249]

I'm curious to see how KZbin Red will work on other countries. I mean, 10 dollars are worth almost 40 reais, which is way more than the average brazilian youtube viewer would be willing to pay to watch videos, I think. There's also the matter of region locked content. What if KZbin Red comes to Brazil, I sign up and... still can't watch those damn Lip Sync Battle episodes because they're not available to my country? I imagine people would be kinda pissed to pay the same as american viewers and still have limited access (not that KZbin has any control over region locking.... I assume? But they would still have to deal with it.) Anyway. If you're not tired of the subject, could you share your thoughts on PewDiePie's post about the matter? Do you think this is all about adblock? pewdie.tumblr.com/post/132147138150/thoughts-on-youtube-red

[@mickeleh]

+Olivia Portela I found PewDiePie’s post annoying. He will, no doubt, be the single biggest beneficiary of this move-both in terms of revenue for his channel and in terms of the career boost he gets by doing a project with the Walking Dead producers. And he tells us, it's for the little people.

[@AuntieVeraCharles50]

Nice looping ... ;-)

[@mickeleh]

+AuntieVeraCharles50 Clearly not nice enough. But, I figure, it's close enough for KZbin.

[@AuntieVeraCharles50]

+mickeleh I'm a VO guy so I'm extra picky... lol. BUT, I'm also a huge fan. Hell, I'd watch you read the bible. And I'm an atheist!

[@Gohma1234]

maybe your not forgetting it but in the fraction you have to take into account the number of channels people subscribe too. Example if 1 person out only subscribes too you. Then wouldn't you get more then half of the $10 since youtube said they will take less then half. 2nd example is that I don't subscribe to the escapist because they produce alot of content I don't like. that means yatzee's chanel doesn't get any of my $ 10 when I first heard about youtube red I didn't know what to think but the more I hear about it the more excited I get. Example I work in an area where with not cell service but soon I'll be able to down load and listen too some of my favorite channels. Too quote McDonald's I'm loving it

[@mickeleh]

+Gohma1234 As far as I know all the money is pooled. If you have reliable information that everyone’s money is tracked and distributed based on what they personally watched, I'd like to know the source. I'm trying to find definitive word on this.

[@Gohma1234]

Sorry too say I don't. Its just how I was made too understand how my subscription dollars would go too support my subscription list. I guess it just made sense in my head. My apologies if I started passing around bad information. Like why would my $10 go to pewdepie when I don"t subscribe too him. If it does get pooled like what your thinking ill be less happy with where my subscription dollars are going.

[@mickeleh]

+Gohma1234 A statement from Fullscreen (my network) to their members states: “KZbin will total up all the income it sees from KZbin Red and divide that among creators based on each creator’s share of total minutes watched by KZbin Red users. (The only exception to this is music videos, which will be paid based on share of views, not share of watch time.)”