MicroStrategy Leveraged ETFs (Danger)

Рет қаралды 25,241

Bitcoin University

Күн бұрын

Пікірлер: 240

@Bitcoin_University Ай бұрын

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@JPs-q1o Ай бұрын

@Bitcoin_University Yeah yeah leverage, decay risk, danger, risk risk risk ... I ONE HUNDRED PERCENT understand what you're saying, BUUUT real talk: If I tell a few white lies to my bank can I take out a collateralized loan on my quadruple-leveraged MSTR ETFs to obtain the capital I need to increase my investment exposure to more quadruple-leveraged MSTR ETFs?

@warntheidiotmasses7114 Ай бұрын

So my take on Bitcon, Crypto Currency, CC, 33, is that it's an UBER cab for bribe money. How else could you get countries around the globe to march in lockstep? Anyhow, Microstrategies borrows dollars to buy Bitcon, then buys it, then runs around bragging about Bitcon, Bitcon goes up causing MSTR to be worth more, MSTR being worth more enables it to borrow more, so it borrows more to buy more Bitcon causing Bitcon to go up making MSTR go up, borrow, buy, brag. Rinse and repeat., a Ponzi like no other in history. Most other companies do something similar, they buy back stock, borrow more, buy more stock back, and eventually something happens to burst the bubble.

@bulltheknicksfan3140 Ай бұрын

One of the most important series on KZbin

@JPs-q1o Ай бұрын

Yeah yeah leverage, decay risk, danger, risk risk risk ... I ONE HUNDRED PERCENT understand what you're saying, BUUUT real talk: If I tell a few white lies to my bank regarding my net worth, annual income, and/or financial position would it be possible to take out a collateralized loan on my quadruple-leveraged MSTR ETFs to obtain the capital needed to significantly increase my investment exposure to more quadruple-leveraged MSTR ETFs?

@StephenCurran-ho3lu Ай бұрын

Love the MSTR series, cheers Matthew

@Bitcoin_University Ай бұрын

Thank you

@Hboogie182 Ай бұрын

Do you love buying MSTR too?

@StephenCurran-ho3lu Ай бұрын

@@Bitcoin_University I'm 97% BTC 3% MSTR (>1% Cash/Euro) I really find MSTR fascinating and wanted a small bit of skin in the game =) Great video & work, as ever! Thank you, sir!

@alexxxvai Ай бұрын

@@Hboogie182 If you watch his series, he made it clear that he is not buying MSTR

@StephenCurran-ho3lu Ай бұрын

@@Hboogie182 Sure, I bought a bit at the start of last month, I'm 97% BTC and 3% MSTR at the moment, we'll see how it goes, up over 50% on it so far, but I will roll it into BTC if it goes over 5% of my portfolio.

@webcomber Ай бұрын

What a great topic and video! The inverse ETF's will siphon off your funds with the daily chop and fees - read the fine print in the prospectus -it's reconciled daily!

@CaseyJScalf Ай бұрын

This was the single greatest video I have ever watched on the subject. Awesome work!

@MikeG4936 Ай бұрын

GREAT info, had a great run with MSTU for the last ~3 weeks, but the recent sideways chop has been absolutely eating my position up. Swapped back to BITB/MSTR combo on all IRAs/Roths. Thank you sir!!!

@dmach83 Ай бұрын

Thank you MK these have been brilliant !!!!!

@alexxxvai Ай бұрын

Thank you Matthew, this will prevent a lot of retail investors from serious damage. These ETFs look extremely attractive to those who are bullish on BTC but feel like they "missed the boat" or started late.

@JPs-q1o Ай бұрын

@fernandozahonero8157 Ай бұрын

Waw!!! What a 10” masterclass. You are amazing.

@bujin5455 Ай бұрын

Great work Matt, thank you for this! I seriously hope everyone sees this video. I've seen a number of people advocating for these products, and I tried to explain in the comments it's a bad idea, and they're like "get your own channel." ...assuming my comments were ever allowed to stick in the first place.

@edwardstoner9967 Ай бұрын

You are an excellent educator. Thank you for the very clear examples that I could understand!

@seanseah333 Ай бұрын

Always knew there's risks in leveraged vehicles. Thanks Matthew for making it clear and simple to digest.

@thomasphillips2234 Ай бұрын

thanks Matthew. I know i will just be buying and holding my own coins. all this fancy stuff is just mumbojumbo to me. I do enjoy the explanations you do. and you do a good job.

@wesleywilliams8129 Ай бұрын

Very interesting. Good show!

@XPATJAK Ай бұрын

Thank you for this series Matt, legend 👍🏻🇦🇺

@johnm100 Ай бұрын

Your spreadsheet illustrated here was incredibly useful

@jodinebrandolino6249 Ай бұрын

Always clear, precise and easily understandable explanations of how market things work. I love to share your teachings with the younger generations! Thanks for being here!!!!

@JPs-q1o Ай бұрын

@Fine_Times Ай бұрын

Very good series which i am not directly concerned about but found very interesting all the same

@mb712 Ай бұрын

Great video. I wish I had seen this 2 months ago! These ETFs are toxic!! I'm not touching them ever again. And as far as day trading goes, it's hard to predict what MSTR does in a day with all the ATM shares being introduced, so may as well go to the casino.

@CalebBoucher Ай бұрын

Thanks for explaining that! You are awesome!

@forward-yu4zc Ай бұрын

Very important information! Thank you Matthew.

@fpbcrypto165 Ай бұрын

Very nice explanation!! Many thanks !!

@dr.k.math.777 Ай бұрын

This is a great video that really solved a puzzle for me. Thanks so much.

@samtertzakian5095 Ай бұрын

Thank you again for an extremely informative and well explained video.

@mahor1221 Ай бұрын

Thank you for the video!

@excedo1349 29 күн бұрын

Thanks for this great educational video 🙏 Much appreciated

@40pluss Ай бұрын

Informative video. Good job.

@jeffwackerly Ай бұрын

Really appreciate this deep dive on MSTR.

@expert_k8232 Ай бұрын

Great Explanation!

@Cdarlosfletch58 Ай бұрын

Excellent analysis brilliant episode

@dabronx340 Ай бұрын

Great video man

@Steve-nb9kg Ай бұрын

People have to learn the difference between being lucky vs. good for these type of things.

@Bitcoin_University Ай бұрын

Yes, and most people will learn the hard way unfortunately. I know that I did

@JPs-q1o Ай бұрын

@SportsAndGaming23 Ай бұрын

You must be new to bitcoin. Crypto will always have a new record high every 3-5 years then have a big drop. You will be able to eventually reach a new high in time. Microstrategy is one of the biggest Bitcoin holders for a reason.

@Steve-nb9kg Ай бұрын

@@SportsAndGaming23 Understanding Bitcoin is one thing but understanding accretive equity financing, convertible bonds and swap agreements is a whole another ballgame.

@jimjohnerson Ай бұрын

Great video. Thanks, Matt.

@spacetime2001 Ай бұрын

Thanks so much for the vid. You provide such an invaluable info for the BTC community.

@bitcoinpoemspro1406 Ай бұрын

Thx Matthew

@MrGenesis315 Ай бұрын

Good talk

@dumbcat Ай бұрын

Brokers who see any customer holding a 2x ETF for more than a few days should be obligated to contact the customer and ensure the customer understands the concept of decay and volatility drag. I'd wager 99% of customers who buy 2x ETFs have no idea.

@freedomfreakazoid Ай бұрын

Thank you Matt. I was ready to take a dip into MSTX but your presentation convinced me to hold off.

@Etaoinshrdlu69 Ай бұрын

MSTU has lower fees so do that one. If Bitcoin rises (bull run might end by Sept 2025) then you will profit. If Bitcoin falls and you lose money you can always buy cheaper Bitcoin. If Bitcoin goes back before it goes up then you get cheaper MSTU. MSTU is better than MSTR because the bull run time frame is likely known.

@STP134 Ай бұрын

Thank you, Matthew. I know what I won’t be doing!

@nickyboonz Ай бұрын

Good work, Matt! Cheers

@El_Cristofaro Ай бұрын

Thank you, Matthew. Another poignant topic, well delivered. I gotta say, I appreciate (often prefer) the deck format of your podcast. To me, this style is clean and concise, driving information rather than “entertainment.” I was noticing discrepancies (for more than one day) last week with the performance of MSTU and its purported 2X return. Although I was aware of levered ETF’s decay (not fully understanding why until now), I was completely unaware that I was accepting “tracking error” risk along with decay, which I accept fault for not knowing. But of all the risks and costs I assume when purchasing levered ETF’s, tracking error is the most unpalatable. I get the rebalancing and accept the high fee, but with that I also have to swallow the random inability for the ETF managers to maintain the 2X ROI - THE POINT OF THE RISK AND THE COST?! What’s the point in assuming the risk and cost? Ha! Thank you for the education and insight, Matthew. This podcast could not have been timed better. Must have been two, maybe three days last week when the etf delivered close to only 1X return. Totally frustrating. Okay, I’m out when back up 🤞🏼 and will only trade these intraday when traded. Thank you sir

@dannyl6507 Ай бұрын

Thanks for all the terrific videos! Can you do a part 4 on MSTR? Maybe cover the dangers of holding it and some reasons why you chose not hodl any.

@CRAIGBYRNE-kl8hi Ай бұрын

Good Morning

@Bitcoin_University Ай бұрын

Good morning

@TIDEnergy Ай бұрын

great video, excellent content

@halton531 Ай бұрын

Matthew thank you! Unfortunately I opened a position with these instruments not knowing what I know now. I will be planning my exit strategy and approach exotic instruments with more caution and less ignorance in the future.

@tcotroneo Ай бұрын

MSTR has a lot more exponential growth potential. I think the levered products are still in play for the long term

@terrycrow2066 Ай бұрын

Those leveraged ETFs are just plain casino games!

@gwynedd1 Ай бұрын

They are good for intraday range riding, and in amounts you don't mind losing.

@Papercutzem Ай бұрын

Please keep this mstr information coming

@liberman7667 Ай бұрын

If someone is looking for a leveraged Bitcoin play to hold over the long-term, MSTR is the only real option. These other products should be avoided like the plague unless they are pros who know what they are doing and know how to use them properly. By holding MSTR the stockholder is basically outsourcing the challenge of risk management to Michael Saylor who is smarter than 99% of the people buying his stock.

@Robert-tw6sr Ай бұрын

I think Mike is saying MSTR is just as risky as the others like MSTX & MSTU in which he was talking about through most of the video.

@liberman7667 Ай бұрын

@@Robert-tw6sr MSTR is less risky than MSTX & MSTU because MSTR is the actual stock of Microstrategy. MSTX & MSTU are financial instruments that use financial engineering to try to get 2x the gains of MSTR when the MSTR stock price rises. However, that play can work very badly against you if you are holding MSTX or MSTU and the price of MSTR falls. You could lose everything in a sharp price drop. You can also bleed out all of your investment over time since the high fee erosion will eat away the value of your holdings over time. MSTX and MSTU should never be held longer than a day and should only be used by advanced traders who actually know how they work and how to properly utilize them. If you don't have time to sit around and watch charts all day, you don't want to hold MSTX or MSTU.

@Zedonius666 Ай бұрын

There are also leverage shares 3x Long MSTR and 3x Short MSTR avaiable on the London Stock Exchange. In case you needed more leverage.

@Etaoinshrdlu69 Ай бұрын

There's even a 5x leverage ETF on LSE

@DataLog Ай бұрын

This is very simple to explain. People should just check what happens when you have something at 100 and increase it by 10% and after that decrease it by 10%. You always end up with less than what you started with.

@Bitcoin_University Ай бұрын

Good summary

@pettycamp 25 күн бұрын

That's just basic math and true for any investment. With leveraged products it just goes faster (in both directions).

@timstar-k5q Ай бұрын

hi Matt , why do i find your voice very calming and therapeutic , do u often get compliments on it or am i the only one that likes it , thanks , hoping for an answer

@cryptob888 Ай бұрын

Great video! Earned a like and sub....😂

@mibjt3770 Ай бұрын

Thank You Matthew. This could be one of the reasons as to why, whenever MicroStrategy does a big bitcoin purchase, the price goes down.

@tjmarter190 Ай бұрын

Morning Matthew! Another great video. I think a new xrp video is due, when is the “xrp army” gonna get rugged? 🤣

@faitaccompli5878 Ай бұрын

The leveraged MSTR etfs have performed well since inception.

@alainelowell1997 Ай бұрын

Thanks Matthew. Great info. I'm not a gambler, I just buy Bitcoin.😊

@Bitcoin_University Ай бұрын

Me too

@Quetzelkoa Ай бұрын

These things are wicked. I got drawn in to MSTX with some spare $ since their stock price is less than MSTR, but I'm grateful I learned about their flaws before I lost too much!

@kellyniquette Ай бұрын

I do understand the decay over time due to the fees - is that where the yield is coming from? I don't see how they would pay the 2x return if not for taking it from their investors in the form of that fee...

@SchmittycocoPop Ай бұрын

Is this similar to contango that effects leverage commodity etfs?

@Bitcoin_University Ай бұрын

Yes, it's similar, but in commodity ETFs, it's a function of whether the front month of the commodity is above or below the second month. If second month is above front month (contango, as you say), then the ETF keeps buying high and selling low when it rolls the futures contracts that underly the ETF

@joaquinpastor3292 14 күн бұрын

I miss one video from Matt and I am getting my ass handed to me today... MSTX appears to be collapsing and there's no news about it yet. Do I lock in my loss now or wait and pray?

@sv6k0a39 Ай бұрын

Microstrategy is gonna blow up.

@firecogs Ай бұрын

TY. Could you do a video on the mempool? I’ve went online to view it but not exactly sure what I’m looking at. The more details the better. Thank you.

@qorazx Ай бұрын

Does this also apply to leveraged btc on exchanges?

@AndrewKangas Ай бұрын

Thanks Matthew! I use a day trading strategy you suggest on your website with 30min candles. I trade the TQQQ or the SQQQ. Overtime I've done well and earned some cash. But ngl, it's fun but also a lot of work.

@AndrewKangas Ай бұрын

In 2023, when I had quite a bit (for me) in the day trading account, I decided to take a break and park some in BTC. A year later I have 4X return on the BTC portion, easily beating all my day trading. It's a good lesson....

@jange670 Ай бұрын

Good morning, Matthew. If I am not mistaken, I thought you mentioned a cyber Monday deal in one of your recent videos. Is that still the case? When I go to your website, I just see the regular price. Thank you.

@Bitcoin_University Ай бұрын

Try using the discount code BITCOIN2024 at checkout

@andreasfuenteselowson5903 Ай бұрын

Can you share your take on the possible consequenses of blackrock’s plans to gain more power over the network by for example investing in mining companies

@SebastienCoudron Ай бұрын

Do you think mstr will be included in the nasdaq? If so what do you think effect on the price will be?

@slackdark Ай бұрын

How does mstu/mstr differ from tqqq/qqq? If you look at 1 year performance tqqq is 3x qqq. So, if mstr is going to be 1k in 1year I'd expect that MSTU would have better gain than MSTR.

@Fudmottin Ай бұрын

If the underlying "product" isn't gambling, the derivatives certainly are. Even covered calls where you just risk upside benefits are an opportunity risk. Wall Street is a big casino. I admit I lack domain expertise. Somehow that didn't stop me from getting a fintech job back before Y2K hit hard. I don't have that one anymore, Lol.

@pugsymalone6539 Ай бұрын

The Pug abides. Pug's tail is too short for leverage. Pug would fall over.

@Bitcoin_University Ай бұрын

That's why the Pug abides-- because he is smart enough to avoid leverage

@dumbcat Ай бұрын

Curious how you feel about this. Please reply. Thank you... In the last 8 trading days (11/26/24 thru 12/06/24) MSTR was been very choppy but ended up +11%. MSTX ended up +21% in spite of the chop. Was this because there was still, overall, a slight upward trend?

@Kranskinator1 Ай бұрын

👍

@uknowdisman Ай бұрын

Ugh I’m trying to determine if I cut my losses now or wait it out on MSTX. Already down 50%

@Lexusyachtclub Ай бұрын

I'm going to hold, basically dca a little until there's another run up I'm happy with, then move it all over to more Mstr for the rest of the cycle. Likely going to happen in 3 to 5 weeks

@TraderPulse 16 күн бұрын

Will you be doing MSTY next? :D

@MrDRchronic420 Ай бұрын

Can you make a video on XRP one of these days so I can explain to my friends on why this is nothing more than a trend

@Bitcoin_University Ай бұрын

Yes, thanks for the suggestion

@MrDRchronic420 Ай бұрын

@@Bitcoin_University one more video for suggestion as well please. If you haven’t already.. but if you can make a video on how to leave behind bitcoin investments for your family in case you were to pass away or some sort of exit in case you needed to!

@ty6390 Ай бұрын

Thanks for the video. I'm seeing lots of content pushing these funds lately Question for you. If we assume BTC will increase over the next 12 months, wouldn't a buy-and-hold strategy with these leveraged ETFs produce a greater total return compared to holding BTC? Thanks again.

@Bitcoin_University Ай бұрын

Almost certainly not, unless MSTR and BTC go pretty much straight up in a smooth line. That's the whole point of the video

@jad1497 Ай бұрын

I have little to no interest in gambling anymore. Good luck to those who do. You will need it.

@JIYkp Ай бұрын

Any thoughts on MSTY?

@Etaoinshrdlu69 Ай бұрын

interdasting

@dbsalzw Ай бұрын

Got it, so if I use MSTU I need to be in and out in a day or two only when MSTR is going up

@omrizb Ай бұрын

It's amazing how much 3rd grade mathematics is important when it comes to trading

@DAIIIVA Ай бұрын

its called theta decay

@Bitcoin_University Ай бұрын

No, it's not. That applies to time decay for options

@JPs-q1o Ай бұрын

@johnnyh5936 Ай бұрын

Thanks for this Matt. How long is your black friday sale running for?

@Bitcoin_University Ай бұрын

Through midnight today

@Robert-tw6sr Ай бұрын

I think Mike is saying MSTR is just as risky at the end, as the others like MSTX & MSTU in which he was talking about through most of the video.

@kidsmom7950 Ай бұрын

I am holding mstx and lost 50% so far , what can I do ? Please help 🙏

@dumbcat Ай бұрын

you could bite the bullet and sell some, or all, of your MSTX and use the money to buy MSTR. then just wait. at least you might have a chance to make your money back. even if MSTR drops hard in the near term if you just wait you might hopefully make your money back.

@Altincome Ай бұрын

How much options premium can i collect before MSTX goes to zero is a better way of thinking about it.

@Lesheer Ай бұрын

So how do you explain TQQQ being +337% vs QQQ +159% over the last FIVE years even with a sideways chop over a period of TWO years? Even a 3X ETF will not be "destroyed" as long as the underlying moves mostly up over the long haul.

@Bitcoin_University Ай бұрын

You cherry picked one example. Path dependence matters

@Lesheer Ай бұрын

@@Bitcoin_University Point is...if the underlying goes mostly up, these ETFs will be profitable - even if you hold it for several years.

@gmen35 Ай бұрын

He can't explain because he's just another random youtuber looking for views. He doesn't understand how MSTR works and how it closely follows Bitcoin. An asset that is set to go up drastically this crypto cycle.

@Bitcoin_University Ай бұрын

@@gmen35 I helped to start a multi-billion dollar hedge fund and have been investing for almost 30 years

@janetdavis8188 Ай бұрын

@Bitcoin _University So if your are down 50% and the MSTX continues to go down, would it be better to cut your loss?

@jf6853 Ай бұрын

Am I right in thinking there the loans against Microstrategy are not secured? Thanks

@Bitcoin_University Ай бұрын

Yes, correct. They are senior, but not secured. That being said, that BTC collateral makes the bondholders sleep better at night

@Brandon-xp1ob Ай бұрын

Not gonna lie. I got 10 mstx for fun. But I dumped them and bought another free shares in mstr. I do hold some microstrategy but it was intended to use for funding fiat billz and to not have to sell Bitcoin in the event I needed liquidity. I'm considering what to do with my microstrategy these coming months. They are trivial in comparison to my cold storage Bitcoin but nonetheless I do debate what to do with them in the short to medium term.

@hugomiller1025 Ай бұрын

I need an aspirin! Easier to just hodl ;)

@Bitcoin_University Ай бұрын

I agree

@yankeesuperstar Ай бұрын

I’m a newbie, but buying and holding standard MSTR and spot Btc (self custody) long term seems solid?

@zipf3lz Ай бұрын

Wouldn't it be nice to complete your Microstrategy series with MSTY (options on MSTR with too good to be true monthly dividends)?

@alexxxvai Ай бұрын

IDEA FOR ANOTHER VIDEO This video made me realize, just like you did projections of different scenarios for MSTX, would be great if you can give us different things one can do lets say when BTC hits 500k. Assuming one owns 1 KYC Bitcoin. What would be his/her options - selling (prob not recommended), borrowing against it and servicing this loan, hodling further, etc. I understand that the mindset is to never sell, but people still are looking to derive some benefit from HODLing in the future... so what are the options of that reward and how can it be used?

@Lexusyachtclub Ай бұрын

If you're going to take out a loan against it youll need to decide what the lowest price BTC will be while you have that loan