Mohamed El-Erian on AI Rally, Inflation, Central Bank Mistakes

Bloomberg Opinion columnist Mohamed El-Erian talks about the boost to markets from AI, says, “the market has finally converged to what the Fed has signaled,” and explains why he would suggest that central bankers not rush to get back their 2% inflation target. His opinions are his own.

[@micheal_mills]

In these uncertain times, it's more important than ever to have a solid understanding of how to manage your finances, invest wisely and navigate economic downturns. But my primary concern is how to grow my reserve of $240k which has been sitting duck since forever with zero to no gains, sure I'm all in on the long term game, but with my savings are lying waste to inflation and my portfolio losing gains everyday, I need a remedy.

[@Walter_hill_]

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[@donna_martins]

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[@robert-1miller]

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[@donna_martins]

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[@robert-1miller]

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[@Aurierserge50]

Did you guys catch the latest US CPI numbers? They're showing a significant increase. Looks like inflation might continue to rise. How can I impact my portfolio of $400,000 which has taken a big hit in recent times?.

[@Jaymilnere]

Yeah, I saw that. The inflation numbers are higher than anticipated. I wonder how the stock market is going to react to this.

[@Higuannn]

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[@Higuannn]

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[@Angelavaldess]

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[@Angelavaldess]

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[@brianwhitehawker1756]

80% equities 20% cash. I plan to take advantage of the s&p 500 as leading indicators predict above 10% rise by this year, my only issue is how to properly allocate a large stock/bond portfolio for substantial gains at minimum risk.

[@lucaswilliams9992]

Keeping some gold is usually a wise decision. You would be better off keeping away from equities for a bit or, even better, seeking advice from an expert given the current market conditions and everything that is at risk with the current economy.

[@Jadechurch-ql3do]

I agree, having a brokerage advisor for investing is genius! Amidst the financial crisis in 2008, I was really having investing nightmare prior touching base with a advisor. In a nutshell, i've accrued over $2m with the help of my advisor from an initial $350k investment.

[@yeslahykcim]

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[@Jadechurch-ql3do]

Evelyn Alicia Schoenholtz' is the licensed coach I use. Just research the name. You'd find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment.

[@geraldt331]

Thank you for this Pointer. It was easy to find your handler, She seems very proficient and flexible. I booked a call session with her.

[@AUstinnesc]

I’m interested in investing in alternative assets but not sure how lucrative. I'd appreciate insights on their risks and potential rewards anyone.

[@McElvinn]

I have a little bit of fear as markets are getting a bit too excited, you're better off seeking guidance from a license advisor

[@sheltonPston]

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[@corrySledd]

l that's impressive ! I could really use the expertise of your mentor . who is the person guiding you please?

[@sheltonPston]

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[@maddysys]

Thanks for sharing, I just looked her up on the web and I would say she really has an impressive background in investing. I will write her an e-mail shortly.

[@cris471]

Have been listening to this gentleman for many years now. Always learn a lot !

[@juanpablogonzalez7742]

Libros también ??

[@cris471]

Claro que si 😂

[@Yasen1791]

Yes he is the best

[@Rightround0846]

He's Def one of my fav guests to listen too on bloomberg. 👍

[@issenvan1050]

Watch Steve Hanke.

[@Infinite_P]

I have trouble with the Nvidia market cap being larger than the entire Canadian GDP. I am not saying they are not a bad investment but this is a bubble.

[@rameshsharma8087]

It's PE is about the same as Amazon. The earnings have kept up with the previously rich evaluation. Cloud companies are pre-ordering AI chips, so there is clear visibility into their future growth. Demand *might* not be this strong in future, but we'll see when that happens. Care to explain why you say it's a bubble?

[@1zcott]

All is not well in Moosetown

[@Infinite_P]

@@rameshsharma8087 Also, competition will come in and take market share. NVDA is trading well above its intrinsic value. IMHO NVDA is Cisco and Intel all over again. I would not be surprised to see NVDA below $400 again. I know that is crazy talk, as it always is when we are in a state of euphoria. I trade charts so Idk if it goes up or down, either way is ok with me. BTW between Bezos, Dimon, and Zuck they just sold about 9 Billion in stock so they may think we are topping also. Who knows.

[@chrishardin7183]

Even though Nvidia is more valuable than Canada, I'd rather own Canada. It has really good maple syrup.

[@rameshsharma8087]

@@chrishardin7183 - still living in the 19th century, are we?

[@deanfaklaris9987]

Thing is rates aren't even high historically. Lowering them becomes inflationary again. But, if we don't lower we go broke due to the interest costs. Plus the market is way over priced. Something is going to break within 12 months.

[@turbofanlover]

Here's hoping. I have plenty of cash to invest at, ideally, much lower share prices. :)

[@raybod1775]

Inflation is going up again the last month, including gas prices. Fed is behind again in controlling inflation.

[@markmarcas6523]

I don’t understand, if we are doing so well, why do we have such a huge budget deficit or is it because of the budget deficit that we are doing so well.

[@juanpablogonzalez7742]

@@raybod1775acá el tema es saber si es por una cuestión estacionaria o exógena !..los movimientos inflacionarios

[@Bomberboybrad]

This is a great clip. Great questions asked, and answered

[@BarAlexC]

P/E ratios on these stocks are absurd. People run in droves to them based on "growth potential" thinking trln dollar companies have the ability to scale x times like a startup might. The market is beyond delusional. Everyone rides the wave ignoring everything is overpriced, from food to housing to the leading companies. The roaring 20s were based on credit and leverage and it's very reminiscent to how we conduct ourselves nowadays and we all know how it ended back then...

[@antonlogunov1936]

Nothing is overpriced because printer can go Brrrr...

[@michaelbananas461]

Problem is the stocks are priced in for printer go brrrr....problem is printer go brrr is correlated with recessionary crash, and last time we had both printer brrr and a recessionary crash, inflation didnt exis..now it does, so these stocks are priced for a mathematically inpossible scenario...this is also excluding an almost infinite series of factors which make the current economic climate dangerously precarious...,​@@antonlogunov1936

[@raybod1775]

Ponzi scheme.

[@danmatsumura2636]

Too much liquidity still sloshing around

[@cccaaioGui]

@@danmatsumura2636liquidity illusion. Don’t get them mixed up.

[@douglasa.5039]

Have been following Mohamed El - Erian for many years as usual excellent economic commentary. Absolutely the Fed is so" very data driven" and minimal factoring in the real time movement of the market and a resilient economy.

[@bash5552]

one of the best!

[@douglasa.5039]

Yes i have learned so very much from Mohamed El - Erian during my many years of investing.

[@turbofanlover]

Dude sounds like Elmer Fudd...but I like him, too.

[@countryclub1113]

As someone who has done a lot of data analytics, I can tell you that he's totally right about not depending on data too much. I ran many reports for executives who get to obsessed and too dependent on the data for every decision, almost acting like a it's some sort of crystal ball that can tell you what move to make next. And from my experience, that just isn't true. Sometimes you have to use your long-term experience as well as broad knowledge from other sources to to get the best estimate of what to do for the future. Like he said, the data results you are looking at are based on the past. The world and its people are always moving forward.➡

[@tomchristianson858]

Much of the data itself is BAD. There are lots of third party companies (consulting) that will produce "data" for "executives" that reinforces the executives existing biases. There are already "AI" companies that are marketing themselves as the "Crystal Ball" of stock picking. The stock market is HUGELY speculative now. When this all comes crashing down is anyone's bet. The Fed knows that we are gambling on everything from Bitcoin to Superbowl side bets. It's going to get ugly

[@milosnestorovic1594]

Overall productivity and growth seem to depend most currently on the most powerful companies...It is reality now...

[@Rikimkigsck]

Great host and guest

[@4hartrich]

When they begin cutting rates we will be in trouble and the market will be tanking!!

[@peterdangelo5882]

No reason to cut - no need for stimulus at all. Rates are fine, inflation was up last month as well.

[@charlesvandenburgh7754]

We, who are heavily invested in CDs, hope that no cuts occur.

[@raybod1775]

Gas prices went up over 10% since hitting a bottom about 6 weeks ago because of an increase in money velocity. Fed knows they can’t cut rates and may be forced to raise rates again.

[@4hartrich]

@@raybod1775 if rates go up much interest on the debt gets out of control quickly

[@4hartrich]

Which is why when they begin cutting rates we will be in trouble. You notice I never said when it will happen people??

[@animusadvertere3371]

Insane. Is AI an important advance? Yes. Is it more important than the rest of the economy? Insane.

[@Davidstowe872]

The rising interest rate can surely control inflation, but won't prevent erosion of the eroding purchasing power of the US dollar. I have learnt my lesson this time. The banks can't be making money off my money, while inflation eats into it. I have set aside 650k to invest in the stock market now, since that keeps up with inflation, but I don't know how to get started.

[@Greghilton3]

Sure, investing in the market-even if it's just the S&P 500-can indeed keep up with inflation since stock growth always outpaces inflationary growth. If you lack the guts, however, you can always invest through a financial advisor, who can secure your money against losses and offer an even higher return on investment.

[@Jamesbrown1126]

Keeping money in the bank is like paying banks and the Govemment. Here's how it works: The bank gives out your money as loan, and charge interest obviously higher than inflation rate, and then give you, the depositor, interest lower than inflation rate. That means net loss for you. That is why I prefer to invest, and on average, my advisor makes returns that always beats inflation!

[@CindyValenti]

I need some recommendations, so please let me know who your advisor is if it's okay. I've been sceptical of banks for a long time.

[@Jamesbrown1126]

She's known as 'Melissa Rose Francks'. One of the finest portfolio managers in the field. She's widely recognized; you should take a look at her work.

[@CindyValenti]

I just googled her and I'm really impressed with her credentials; I reached out to her since I need all the assistance I can get. I just scheduled a caII.

[@MarionBlair]

The US locomotive is run by printed money!

[@ccpbux]

Absolutely!!

[@Mike-us1wr]

It makes sense service inflation coming down by upward productivity via innovation of technology.

[@Mike-us1wr]

Earnings so far are also important factoring in market sentiment.

[@Ianjames1066]

The world must heed Dr. El Erian's wisdom...

[@user-rs1ui4sv2w]

Brilliant man with common sense 👍

[@Tonyharry-rq3gj]

I lost over $80k when everything started to tank. Not because I was in an exchange that went belly up. I was just stupid to hold and because that's what everyone said. I'm still responsible. It just taught me to be a better investor now that I understand more of what could go wrong. It took me over two years of being in the market, I'm really grateful I found one source to recover my money, at least $10k profits weekly. Thanks Victoria Hamilton

[@Huyenngoc-no5km]

Wow. I'm a bit perplexed seeing her been mentioned here also Didn’t know she has been good to so many people too this is wonderful, i'm in my fifth trade with her and it has been super.

[@LeaSalonga-iz2zy]

You trade with Victoria Hamilton too? Wow that woman has been a blessing to me and my family.

[@Eleuthero5]

I'm surprised that a bright guy like Mohamed doesn't talk about the outrageous P/E and P/B ratios. It's as bad as 1999.

[@williamlandis543]

Excellent, thanks,

[@kevinjohnkiff]

Many industries are going to become much more productive and competitive as a result of AI advances. Many sectors haven't even figured out what these advances mean for them. Accountancy, Legal, and Recruitment sectors seem almost asleep at the wheel to me to name just a few sectors. For me personally, it is a very exciting time right now and with the benefit of hindsight I am glad that I parked a few projects during the darkest of the pandemic days, it has now become so much quicker and easier to begin bringing them into the realm of reality with the Bing Edge Co-Pilot beta and the build you own co-pilot looks almost out of this world.

[@lazybearish]

Inflation has NOT come down; prices (a symptom of inflation, not inflation itself) are still going up, only at slower rates. Inflation ( unproductive, long- term increase in the monetary supply) is still rampant and can be seen in the Fed’s bank loan facility opened last year at this time and in the continual expansion of credit on all levels, across all financial markets. “Credit” is also a component of the monetary supply.

[@headspaceandtiming2114]

Why cut at all? And leaving inflation above 3% bouncing around only adds pressure to the consumer. Rates are where they should be. The economy is not healthy. The jobs numbers are "juiced" and productivity off government spending is not how you build an economy.

[@danielmcpartlin6526]

They know when the majority of companies need to refinance their debt and will cut before then. It’s a Ponzi scheme.

[@arodriguez2707]

What about asset price inflation?

[@JoeBlow-nh7mp]

Most of the market has gone down, except for a few magnificent stocks. I have a feeling the FED won't cut until these magnificent stocks also take a hit.

[@SuperSavageSpirit]

​@@fckytbAdsif they go up from 100 to 1000 and then go down to 900 does it really matter?

[@wtfdoino605]

Overstate valuations and issue credit based on those valuations. Its not a lie, it is NY real estate! Inflation is not a crime.

[@raybod1775]

Fed knows money velocity and prices are rising again. They screwed up once, maybe they learned inflation is not transitory.

[@domjohnson2579]

@@JoeBlow-nh7mp I hope.

[@jimmymichaud2129]

Will all that AI generated productivity growth come with the added expense higher government entitlement funding?

[@ccpbux]

Low interest rates for such a long period of time has turned the American Dream of owning your own home into a nightmare. Lower interest rates drove up demand, which in turn, drove up home prices. Just look at a 50 year chart of the house-price-to-income ratio. This will not end well, with the more normalized rates, for (Median, not Average) folks in their 20’s and 30’s, whose wages are not keeping up with the cost of living.

[@thomascurran5573]

Lets see in June. The growth is all Washington DC Corporation spending growth

[@issenvan1050]

Why doesn’t he talk about the money supply?

[@danielmcpartlin6526]

He’s definitely establishment. They won’t mention that inflation could be related to money printing

[@issenvan1050]

@@danielmcpartlin6526 👏🏻

[@issenvan1050]

@@danielmcpartlin6526 Do you watch Steve Hanke?

[@wtfdoino605]

2 trillion cash in circulation. The rest is just debt that has to be refinanced. All I need to know.

[@raybod1775]

Fed has been reducing money supply, except money velocity is increasing and causing a rise in inflation.

[@lakeguy65616]

why should the Fed reduce the Fed Funds Rate before the economy is in danger of a recession (increasing unemployment) and while inflation remains well above the 2% target? Boosting the stock market is not the Fed's job and it would be a mistake.

[@raybod1775]

Real inflation is around 5% to 6% and rising. Gasoline prices have come up over 10% since bottoming out 6 weeks ago, in case you haven’t noticed.

[@zomgoose]

The inflation numbers are higher than reported though.

[@anthonychuan7279]

Yesterday was 60:30:10 Today 55:30:15 Thank you for this update. Change is constant. Cleanest Dirty Shirt is likely from Kristofferson's.. Sunday Morning Coming Down.

[@shafighori4254]

He is not saying it’s because of money printing

[@jmaietta]

There's actually not an abundance of supply when you consider the number of qualified data scientists. it would be wonderful if we would stop conflating Gen AI with ML, predictive analytics, DL, NLP etc.

[@goneviral8814]

Forget it, I'll just buy Nvidia with my life savings. No need for 401k, gold, other stocks 😅😅😅😂.

[@domjohnson2579]

The only "mistake" central banks made was too low too long and printing money. This can be cured by returning back to an economy we had 50 years ago built on sound investment and economic efficiency by just leaving interest rates exactly where they are now. Productivity plummets when money is "free"

[@jimmymichaud2129]

There’s a good chance that all that productivity growth is going to be taxed heavily to finance further entitlements

[@Useruytrw]

He is here folks , the jargon czar , the know all

[@brasilsoccer0]

The Faed is is really too obsessed with data and they’re very shortsighted. They need to look long-term and they need to start cutting rates ASAP or they will miss the boat like they did on inflation and then we will deal with deflation.

[@sailedship6530]

Interest rates won't lower rent inflation, it creates it. housing crisis is caused by fewer supply and higher demand. Population grows and more immigrants coming in and few houses built to accommodate. High interest deters home developers

[@issenvan1050]

2% or less CPI with a nasty recession by 2025. 90% probability…

[@kingtigercrownestate9102]

Should Mohamed El-Erin be the next Chairman of the Fed?

[@manabouthouse]

Does he work for the Fed

[@lisaharper1827]

Yes, but the common man needs inflation reduced!

[@nickvin7447]

And yet widespread tech layoffs keep happening. The stock market is in real trouble.

[@scottfreeman4190]

Didn't we see this in 1999 with the internet??

[@raybod1775]

El-Erian is usually wrong. Fed will not be able to cut rates starting in June. Gasoline prices are up over 10% in last 6 weeks.

[@TREMVan]

eggs at my store up 12 cents a dozen today.

[@fredm1]

Once the rate cutting starts, inflation will start to most likely pick up and then FED will start a MASSIVE RATE HIKE to 10% FED FUNDS rate; Hence this outcome will cause and start depression. Those buying groceries are well aware that the real inflation is much already over 10%. Its already catching up with my $220k stock portfollo

[@debwes1]

If you're not who understands strategies to invest in the market, seek a Financial advisor to guide you.

[@georgeh.5126]

Agreed! this is why I work with one. My $420k portfolio is well-matched for every market season yielding 85% rise from early last year to date. I and my advsor are working on a 7 figure ballpark goal for this year. IMO, financial advisors are the most sought-after professionals after doctors.

[@MarvishaN]

@georgeh I could really use the expertise of this advsors.

[@georgeh.5126]

Her name is 'Heather Lee Larioni’. Just research the name. You’d find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment.

[@MarvishaN]

Thanks a lot man. Quite helpful

[@Fgji230]

We already are in a mild recession for many in blue states.

[@mazharsoufi5270]

LLLLLOve Mohammad

[@lucanidae100]

Inflation is out of hand and will continue

[@Jayshadys]

The best stonk markets are the ones where you have runaway inflation and that is where we are heading and why stonks are rising.

[@Hi_Chew]

Being data driven or being politically correct? Seems no one wants to make the call.

[@jackjohnson9449]

We just lived through a 100% Inflation Spike. Now the FED wants to stabilize the higher prices with 2% annual inflation, STUPID. A Depression would be welcomed at this point.

[@williammorales541]

at the end if the day its all a gamble

[@hansp.]

How finance the exploding national debt?

[@toke182]

he is fine with 3%+ inflation because he is rich, but the regular people will be squeeze eventually

[@williammorales541]

if he knew so mucho why didnt he buy those ai stocks

[@johnk1984]

Completely disagree with El-Erian. The Fed and the government have not done nearly enough to control inflation, and the US will need Reagonomics and a severe recession to normalise, after the ridiculous amount of out of control stimulus. The Fed have backed off in the fight against inflation with the Bank Term Funding program, and have been tightening with QT in one hand while stoking the markets in the other hand by the back door.

[@thewholeshebangandsome75]

Even if there are rate cuts on the horizon, there are no guarantees the banks will pass them on to consumers. Another indication of corporate greed and price gauging - hurting middle class society. The only thing missing for a perfect storm is unemployment ATM

[@andyrcampbell]

Soooo many people talking when they haven't a clue what is going on !

[@thenaturechannel_]

Elections 2024 in America - american voters are so happy with their situation

[@jivebunny3765]

How can productivity gains occur unless manufacturers bring in more robots? Humans don't produce more just because you pay them more. Also in the UK, huge swathes of the workforce aren't working since the pandemic, blaming "mental health" for being on benefits. The minimum wage is going up 10% in April, which will crush the service and hospitality industries unless they pass on swingeing price increases on to customers which will fuel inflation. The flip side is mass redundancies and a huge drop off in economic activity if pubs, restaurants and cafes close. Nightclubs are already closing en masse across the UK.

[@econosopher]

The markets are so naive. A.I will destroy so many jobs that there won't ve enough people to pay for the products.

[@Yasen1791]

Every thing are in bubble

[@DexterHaven]

I wonder if half those books on his shelf are by Danielle Steele and he's just trying to look smart...

[@obijuan3004]

I’m not sure why El-Erian keeps attacking the Fed. The economy is doing great.

[@boobie456]

Guys been short for so long...hahaha

[@ramezmatta]

He should be the chairman of the fed

[@amirh.h]

they were all wrong and can not explain what is going on , just justifying, including him

[@user-xr6zm8cx6r]

Ai As if a nirvana 😂 otherwise we were loosing the world 😅

[@JamminJaminK]

So Public

[@illegalsmirf]

Be vewy, vewy afwaid of the AI wally.

[@michaellitzkow5119]

Mohamed is the Man but I disagree on rate cuts. There will be no rate cuts. Rates will go up because the Fed will have to protect the US Dollar which is getting beaten like a baby seal by US politicians who won’t stop spending.

[@marcob.7801]

Yeah,....I've been listening to him for years too! For the last 3 years he's been doom and gloom and now it's Fed and market are at perfect convergence! Frankly, I feel he's greatly overrated!

[@Fgji230]

A.I. is only good as the programmers. And this woke DEI A.I. will not revolutionize humanity.

[@domjohnson2579]

Trillions of dollars in fake stimulus will do that!

[@nraghu99]

His record is so so . Not very impressive

[@williammorales541]

he doesnt predict anything hes like a reporter

[@williammorales541]

hes never tight

[@thierry-le-frippon]

All these guys are all repeating the same thing... till they all believe into it.

[@infamousnachi]

this guys' the King Clown. All of this can be explained by monetary debasement. He's playing mental gymnastics to cover it up.

[@web2yt488]

I ha. te this guy. Hes wrong often.

[@puneetsingh70]

So much BS simply wearing suits! Answer simply this - what do you think are the effects of social media on trading? What happens to liquidity pumped into the economy - how does it get out of the circulation if not into equity investment if not into real GDP?

[@anthonyiannozzi6777]

If I were Trump, after winning the election in November I would hire Ron Paul as Federal Reserve Chairman for a few months so he can shut down the entire Federal Reserve corrupt clown show system. Let the free market rule as it should. How did we do before the Fed started early in the 1900s?

[@id10t98]

I dont know why these stations continue to talk to El-Erian. Completely useless commentary from someone that pontificates about economies in a vacuum, whilst sitting in an Ivory Tower. He was wrong about transitory inflation, as it is all transitory going up and down over time, and he was wrong about the effect of raising rates to cool it and how fast to do so. Let's face it, given the pandemic, Jerome Powell has done a very good job at the Fed.

[@williammorales541]

rents are too high and not slowing down

[@cliffbarber1642]

He is wrong and also myopic on this issue. We had a two decades long policy of easy money which led to 2008, the mini regional bank run and now and unfolding commercial real estate crash. Nobody wants to hear this, but to wipe out the excessive "greed tendencies" which led to the aforementioned crises (and could lead to more / worse if unchecked) you need to have at least a decade of visibly high interest rates. We are only two years into that decade. I know the markets don't want to hear that, but it's absolutely true and the Fed unfortunately doesn't have the courage to say it.

[@D5MDJM7738]

Blah blah blah

[@marcob.7801]

You Wasceley Wabbit, two percent is now my target for infwation! And 30 percent in the lowlands! Complete and utter nonsense!

[@tbd1613]

This guy wrong on everything everytime. Another guy using his name for $$$ and has no idea wtf hes talking about. Listen to him at your own peril. Just goes to prove that a brain is an awful thing to waste.

[@barcooter8248]

People guarenteed to tell you nothing of value who make continually incorrect predictions. If they knew what they were talking about they would be billionaires.

[@D5MDJM7738]

Absolute waste of time talking to this guy

[@rebelpan9269]

What does this boomer knows about AI

[@user-bd2ff6tg1n]

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[@user-bd2ff6tg1n]

Крагунана бракта дриктоскт кубланкт гизания гранкта каринакт габланкта графинкта....