Moneyball Military: An Alternative Force - Affordable, Achievable, Able To Deter China | History Lab

Could Beijing be ready to invade Taiwan by 2027 or even before, as some U.S. leaders have suggested? Can the U.S. military deter Chinese aggression with our traditional force -- composed of a small number of large, expensive, manned platforms that our industrial base is struggling to produce? How would we generate an alternative force composed of very large numbers of smaller, low-cost, autonomous systems that can be fielded in this period of maximum vulnerability -- a Moneyball Military? Can the Pentagon's central planning system, dating to the 1960s and still operating, deliver the military forces we need to maintain deterrence? Or do we need a completely alternative process? At a time of unprecedented disruption to the U.S. military, how can our defense enterprise disrupt itself in time to matter?
The Hoover Institution hosted "Moneyball Military: An Alternative Force - Affordable, Achievable, Able to Deter China, A Case Study in the Application of History to Contemporary Policy Debates," on September 26 at 4:00 pm PDT. The event featured speaker Christian Brose, a visiting fellow at the Hoover Institution. Stephen Kotkin, director of the Hoover History Lab, moderated the discussion.
To read the case study, click here - www.hoover.org/research/money....
For more information on the History Lab, visit - www.hoover.org/history-lab

[@williamelkington5430]

I like Chris's concept. It has merit. As he says, it depends on there being a substantial and dependable amount of money for companies and their investors to pursue. What he doesn't say is that the concept also critically depends on a dramatic change in the way DoD buys stuff. This change has so far proven hard to make on the small scale offered by DIU programs. Program managers and contracts people (as well as logistics folks) have a hard time writing commercial contracts rather than procurement contracts. They have a hard time setting aside the DoD doctrine of "What's yours is mine" when it comes to suppliers' intellectual capital rights. Until DoD and Congress change these things, Chris's concept won't work.

[@simplyafederalist]

Yay if NASA never changed their IP sturcture , we would of never gotten this massive ressinisance in new and cheaper private rocket systems. Rocket system cost launch cost per pound had flatlined for decades. Not any more. Space x would of never survied without this change because NASA contracts kept them aflot. The old big players who all are massive DOD contractors are now losing the game. IP has to change if you ever want this to work.

[@gmw3083]

15:45 "the technological changes advantaging the defender." Since America is always the attacker, that's a problem...

[@tobyw9573]

The point has been made that there has been too much consolidation in the defense industry.@@simplyafederalist

[@kreek22]

@@gmw3083 The Americans are just policing their empire.

[@shingnosis]

Haven't even listened to the whole video yet but that's a brilliant headline. Moneyball is a film every somewhat smart person should watch.

[@lockelamora8099]

Great talk. Fun little tidbit --> the USAF adopted PPBE faster than the navy. That system completely failed to produce a new fighter to replace the Century Series. The Navy, meanwhile, was a bit leery about this central planning stuff, and they got the F4 Phantom. For the next three decades. The other services wound up adopting it, and it became pretty much the most succesful combat aircraft program in US history.

[@noahway13]

It sounds like more hot air and nice ideas and more jargon, but no concrete ideas. It sounds like his way of making the military procurement better and more efficient is by throwing more, easy money at it.

[@theimproooooooover]

Let's go Anduril! Awesome to see them really push the US MIC

[@user-bt8vn3dj6o]

Fascinating presentation. The Navy had a high / low combination of ships in the 1970s/80s.

[@davidhillshafer8729]

I’m deeply sympathetic to the goals presented. However, I want to quibble with the speaker’s characterization of the problem. The problem isn’t ideological (centralized planning vs. free market). US DoD acquisition processes (PPBE) in many ways reflects standard tech development processes of companies like Ford, GM, GE, and IBM from the late 1950s through the 1990s. That is, top DoD executive decision-making processes mimic standard commercial industrial processes and structures from a prior generation. That means DoD structures do not deeply incorporate concepts like lean manufacturing, quality assurance, user friendly interfaces, and agile development, but instead bolt them on as additional requirements. By the way, those are the areas where companies like Ford, GM, GE, and IBM have been slaughtered in the global marketplace from the 1990s on. Imagine working at IBM and saying, “I’d like to be more like Google or Apple. If only we were more free market and less centralized planning.” Umm, that’s not really the problem. DoD believes that everything has to be planned up front and any errors are a failure of THE process and not merely part of the learning process. So DoD sets up studies that analyze and refine options to be evaluated by multiple boards which will inform further studies … so that no plan has to be wrong (or finished quickly). The area where this is most painful is software and electronics hardware procurement. DoD buys customized lines of code and motherboards the same way it buys aircraft carriers … because that is THE process. THE process does, in fact, work because US Military technologies continue to outperform competitors’ rival gear. However, the process is outdated by commercial standards and not capable of responding rapidly to emerging battlefield environments.

[@paulh2468]

Dr. Kotkin is always good to hear. History is interesting and useful to a point. But it isn't linear. In 1939, I don't think anyone openly predicted (or even understood) that atomic bombs would end WW2, 6 years later. In 2018, no one predicted Covid 19, the Russian invasion of Ukraine, or high interest rates causing chaos. In my old workplace, we had "flavour of the month", where a middle manager like Brose made their name by coming up with some fantastic new business plan, that ultimately failed.

[@paranoidreplica9124]

well ofc you cant predict anything perfectly, but you can have an idea what is going to happen. for example - Bill Gates predicted (i think in 2014) that there will be a pandemic in the future that government is not ready to tackle, but nobody wanted to create protocols for such case. about russians - yes, nobody predicted that they will invade Ukraine, but (at least in eastern EU) everyone knew that they will attack someone again soon. thats just what they do for several hundred years. just instead of Ukraine, people leaned more toward Georgia or Kazakhstan or some type of Crimea situation somewhere in Baltics

[@roc7880]

there were people who warned about a possible pandemic before 2020 and also those who said that Putin plans invading Ukraine before 14.

[@braytongoodall2169]

Generally agree except for pandemics and high interest rates. Plenty of people were concerned about pandemics in general and just before pandemic status, covid in particular (e.g. it was being modelled in maths facebook groups before US cases). Same goes for high interests or at least high inflation following the monetary stimulus of the pandemic (though supply shocks maybe less so).

[@rstora01]

I don't think anyone predicted nor understands that the US would allow it's nuclear deterrent to atrophy and delay modernization to a super critical juncture. Where modernization must be completed with zero margin for error of delay.

[@tnndll4294]

Niall Ferguson from Hoover predicted Putin would invade twice.

[@lettucesalad3560]

2022 Defense Spending US: 877 Billion(14% of US govt budget) China: 228 Billion(7% of Chinese govt budget) Russia: 81 Billion(25% of Russian govt budget) The biggest threat to the US is continued overspending on defense. Defense contractors are greasing the wheels on the Democrat and Republican sides.

[@surfboy344]

Purchasing power parity accounts for most of the difference.

[@peterclarke3020]

Current defence contractors seem to be following the Boeing model to some extent. There is little incentive for them to reduce costs or increase efficiency.

[@samblum153]

Ukraine war has taught us you have to plan to fight the enemies you really have, not the war you used to fight. Ins pretty clear pork for congressmen is the guiding principle of procurement. 46:02 phil seem to have identified the "consumers" as the complex of congressmen and associated contractors they work with. But its also true that rebuilding old programs in new variants,can miss all the new technologies now available in the commercial markets. The biggest future issue is the economy of scale required to use AI applied to military problems, and the need to maintain competition there. Another big issue is that much small scale hardware component for drones,like batteries and motors for commercial products are mostly produced in china. But the flipside of doing it slowly, is the leading technologist nation is mostly fighting against copies of what it did in the past, so if you are really fighting a clone of what your military did in the last, going slow has definite advantages.

[@tobyw9573]

Proactive and proper planning are the most important and also include overspending. How would term limits affect political greed?

[@cassiecaradoc2070]

You lost me at "It's very difficult for our political system to spend that much money on people from the lower rungs of our society or the middle rungs of our society"... No, it's not. It spends trillions a year on those groups. But if your argument is that most of the money it spends gets eaten up by the bureaucracy and never makes it to the intended target or, if you're making the better point that the programs that exist seem to be doing more harm than good, then I'm with you. But it's not a lack of money, it's a lack of understanding and treating the problem and using government programs to subsidize the very behaviors that keep those groups from developing human capital.

[@RN-lo6xc]

Analysis that is incisive and easy to understand - this man has gained a fan. Hopefully he is heeded by western capitals.

[@paulsansonetti7410]

It's way too late homie,but delusional boomers live in a fantasy world of Hollywood and Happy endings You aren't getting the MIC to damage it's bottom line to help national security,and they have blackmail material on almost the entire US government and that's the exact problem This piece of scum really brought up Condoleezza Rice and McCain fondly,which lets you know he's scum as well

[@DonJDawson]

You beat it by issuing a bond, building out your supply chain, and then offering turn key solutions, while opening up your supply chain to other defense contractors to improve their efficiency. There is no other way. We cannot expect the red tape to change to save itself, it can't. Thus, we need to walk around the red tape, support it, and get it back on its feet. We can not rely on the system to save itself. This is a reoccurring problem that happens ever ~100years, the existing power is yet to get it right, but it doesn't mean that it is impossible.

[@chaecoco2]

Preparing for forever wars forever.

[@john.8805]

😂 good comment

[@roc7880]

imagine having Joe Pesci teaching you history.

[@josephpadula2283]

You think that’s Funny . I make you laugh?……

[@davechapman6609]

I do not see the DoD procurement system "rewarding people who have the ability to get things done". I see a system in which the guys with the best lobbyists get the contract. I see a system where Space X had to sue the DoD in order to BE ALLOWED TO BID on launch service contracts. While Chris makes many good points, the fact is that the corruption in the current US Defense Procurement System approaches Russian levels. We could easily lose a major war because of this.

[@kevinjenner9502]

The DOD failed its fifth audit in November 2022, unable to account for 61 percent of its 3.5 trillion in assets. Responsible Statecraft 11/22/22 “The Pentagon fails its fifth audit in a row”

[@paulsansonetti7410]

Yeah except Russia can get to the ISS itself,Russian helicopters can operate in high altitude like Afghanistan, Russia has 6 superweapons the US has no parallel to The S-400 actually works ,while the patriot,iron dome and US missile defense are all myths The US makes nothing but boondoggles f-22,f-35 , littoral, Zumwalt, Gerald Ford class etc etc Russia has won all 5 wars since 1999, the US lost a 29+ year war with goatherders Russia and China have nuclear fallout shelters for roughly their entire populations, while the US has done basically nothing to protect anybody besides it's so called elites ( geriatric senators and kleptocratic billionaires) See " Raven Rock " and " while the rest of us die " for the receipts You should consider reading Andrei Martyanov 's books so you actually understand that of which you speak

[@effexon]

we can see that everywhere in west: that kind of procurement makes companies top heavy, skews procurement and basic work and service suffers or no funding is left. Also companies rot from the top to bottom that less and less motivated people stay there(those eg engineers or other useful field work, as politically minded take over). Happens in all industries slowly. Construction, IT services, healthcare, pharmaceuticals...

[@aristeon5908]

Are you serious? Do you think the corrupt Chinese system is superior to the US procurement system? This hatred of the US government is self sabotage. The real issue is that the US has deindustrialized and allowed capital and expertise to move to China to generate profit for corporate shareholders.

[@landcruiser1055]

Very interesting. I’m glad this came up in my feed.

[@roc7880]

I beg to differ about one thing. It was not socialist planning in defense what killed the industrial base, but the unbounded capitalism with mergers and acquisitions with concentration of power in a few corporate players. The sercret is to enfore antitrust laws. plus. there is no market without the state because there is no trade without property rights and rules either.

[@WilliamMacLeod-en3pm]

450000 cars a week from that Tesla factory eh? Hope your book has better fact checking 20:47

[@WilliamMacLeod-en3pm]

Also admitting that you can’t understand the difference in complexity between a JASSM and a Tesla is awesome lol 😂 half expecting a rant about “magnets: how do they work!?!” Next

[@christopherrobbins9985]

My thought as well.

[@gagamba9198]

Right. It produces that per quarter at all its assembly plants combined.

[@peterclarke3020]

Point taken, but you could compare JASSM and Starlink satellites.. The Starlink satellites are only limited, because SpaceX only needs so many of them, not unlimited numbers.

[@philipdamask2279]

I am upset that for all the money that has been spent we cannot even clear out a mine field!

[@jwilson9096]

this goes hard

[@borisborski1876]

GREAT upload

[@Greenlightandgo]

28:00 Where the good stuff starts.

[@danielscott1409]

Genius. Let's compete with China on who can make the most small electronic devices. Why didn't I think of that?

[@WindingEssensialsTogether]

Networked systems. No nation has a military as interconnected as ours in terms of data sharing. This includes china and their "5G AI expertise". The chinese cannot compete and cutting them out of the semiconductor industry will ensure that.

[@redsix5165]

After nearly 25m, I still have no idea what the moneyball concept is as he applies it to his topic.

[@georgesmith113]

If you remember the movie the point is you can get more bang for the buck by analyzing what you need and how to put it to your best advantage more switch blade drones less big ticket items

[@philipdamask2279]

I never saw the movie so moneyball was no help to me understanding what we need to do. Also, do not ask for more money to flow into this bloated process. Talk about where to take from to build capability to solve real problems like clearing mine fields and protecting tanks from drones.

[@sebastianschmidt3372]

20:54 that’s Tesla production per year instead of per week - still great comparison. Thanks for your work

[@udeychowdhury2529]

Great discussion, thanks

[@huanghermann5207]

Talking about deterring a country of 1.4 billions

[@Robert-cd5zr]

Absolutely not. CBO projected trillion dollar+ deficits (forever) and that was before covid. Even with absolutely zero defense budget we still have an annual deficit that exceeds projected growth. This is not sustainable, and it doesn't matter if you can outspend Russia or China if it means you have to collapse your economy doing it. We're at 33 trillion in debt with people actually starting to feel the effects of inflation now, how many more decades can this go on? "Please innovate and have startups, we'll guarantee money" is not necessary, we can produce what we need with less money with procurement reform (cost plus contracting a scalpel not a sledgehammer, eliminate requirement creep, stockpile vs just in time production, having competing companies build the winning design, eliminate the jones act, eliminate revolutionary development and focus on evolutionary, etc)

[@peterclarke3020]

I think that Elon Musk has provided the manufacturing model..

[@paulsansonetti7410]

46:50 you are name checking McNamara without simultaneously being ashamed

[@mva6044]

Recommended term for a drinking game while listening to this: "monopsonistic"

[@DavidCoxDallas]

👍 hadn't heard the word "monopsony" since college economics class.

[@maryspencer4274]

Could the services also produce?

[@evanvarns4785]

Yes, they could - and SHOULD. The people who are supposed to be the "real" consumers of military budgets are the service members on the front lines - who have the best handle on what's really "needed" to solve current operational problems. In my estimation, a ton of DoD's needs for the people on the pointy end of the spear would be best produced in-house by people wearing the uniform. Service members in real-world situations often do a lot of "redneck engineering" to solve problems using what they have available; that's REAL innovation - something the Pentagon needs badly in MUCH larger doses.

[@TheDennisgrass]

39:55 When Stephen Kokin begins to summarize the actions of the Chinese, I am hearing portions of Sun Tzu's book, "The Art of War".

[@dkudlay]

Is he arguing for high tech terrorism vs coordinated warfare? Its ironic that he is blaming the command control for addapting too much from their rival - Soviet Union, and at the same time arguing for basically jahadi methods of warfare.

[@Drunkwithsuccess]

People have choices on line. Target Best Buy?

[@sampotter4455]

Every military discussion = more money. Is there no way to reduce the costs w/ this type of alternative force?

[@peterclarke3020]

Essentially he is correct..

[@cosmicmuffet1053]

Our disconnect between combat effectiveness and civilizational habits is creating an unintentional market of 'not my fault'. This is the essence of corruption. If we would like to fortify ourselves against corruption, we must find the right mixture of synthesis between existing markets and procurers, as well as new markets and speculators. TBH this looks like it requires a tournament structure. If college teams were better integrated into defense procurement, then we would have a more ready available market of enthusiastic suppliers.

[@trumpyla]

Bingo! Lean & Mean no paper pushers makers and designers

[@donaldw.2192]

The thesis is: "Instead of investing in small numbers of large, expensive, heavily manned military platforms, the United States must rapidly field large numbers of smaller, lower-cost, autonomous systems." Was the case made that ... Many Small is better than a Few Big? It probably is correct however I would like to have that demonstrated. i.e. it is suggested by the presenters that a few big aircraft carriers are worse than many small new autonomous systems. Alternatively, are 100 expensive generation 5 fighters Not as good as 500 AI operated generation 4 fighters? (I would bet the Gen 5 fighters would win). There is strong merit in unleashing American innovation and ingenuity. However, is this generally understood in the Pentagon, by the Joint Chiefs of Staff, current or past Secretaries of State? The presenter did say a "new consensus is emerging". Not clear that "consensus" has the same meaning or intention as the presenter.

[@peterclarke3020]

There is a need to multiple things and multiple different scales. It’s not either / or.

[@lawrenceralph7481]

No substitute for barrels and bodies.

[@bobbinsthethird]

Barrels and bodies only went so far in 1914 Only way to break the stalemate of trench warfare, be it in France or Ukraine is outside the box thinking.

[@gmw3083]

15:45 "the technological changes advantaging the defender." Since America is always the attacker, that's a problem...

[@paulsansonetti7410]

20:45 no way Tesla is producing 500k cars per week homie

[@GuitarZombie]

Here is an idea; make friends and preach peace

[@stevenwebbjr7639]

232 times the ship building? We're gonna be dead soon if you guys don't do something. Seriously.

[@peterclarke3020]

That’s likely based on ‘number of ships’ produced, rather than ‘tonnage’. However, there is one shipyard in China that can produce 7x output of all of the US’s shipyards put together. The US only has two operational military shipyards at present, with a third undergoing maintenance. And a forth is mothballed ?

[@deandimattia4516]

Is he running for the Presendancy? He should.

[@mainstreemmedia9929]

Strange to refer to these problems as resembling soviet central planning, when it's corporations and their lobbyists that have driven these problems he's citing.. more like crony capitalism and corporatisation, than soviet central planning...

[@alexanderhill3181]

Funny that this has "Moneyball" in the title the day that everyone is talking about Michael Lewis beclowning himself re: FTX & SBF

[@paulsansonetti7410]

Tesla sold 1.3 million cars last year,they arent making 50k per week at a single factory

[@tobyw9573]

Government should work to ensure profitable, full employment and the economy to support it. That will boost the economy and reduce wealth transfer needs. Schooling should be changed to a voucher system. Education department is $80B annually. Universities should start spending their endowments - after all it was tax deductible.

[@paulsansonetti7410]

20:45 Tesla produces 5k cars per week not 50k homie, maybe 7k on the high end

[@robertprawendowski2850]

⭐

[@peterclarke3020]

The things produced in 1944-1945, were much simpler than todays technologies, and could be much more easily produced by general manufacturers. Today for example, you need lots of specialised microchips just as one example.

[@effexon]

WW2 timespan, also equipment got simplyfied as the war progressed.... due to material shortages and crew having no time to train + rate of equipment lost meant no sense to do but basics that matter(save lives). Those who could replace lost planes,tanks,jeeps towards end of war won, as other side couldnt.

[@bobmnz6914]

Something I wrote upset KZbin. They have deleted it; Yet everything I wrote is still here, I think? Writing this as a bookmark. This article is about the 1957 novel. For the 1966 film, see They're a Weird Mob (film). First edition (publ. Ure Smith) They're a Weird Mob is a popular 1957 Australian comic novel written by John O'Grady under the pseudonym "Nino Culotta" I wonder if it was the above bit? Using this to test it out.

[@michaelmityok1001]

Very enlightening but not in a comfortable way lol😢

[@aristeon5908]

Sorry but how can you claim that China's state-led system is more capable of producing ships while also arguing that "capitalism" is the solution to the US lack of production capabilities? The whole deindustrialization process was caused by "free market" forces, which don't care about national security or ethics. Capital moved to China because of cheap labour and the Communist government's incentives for local production. The issue with the US is that it abandoned its mixed market economy and demonized the idea of creating a framework that rewards local production as a means to strengthen the US. Cheap electronics and cheap clothes made by cheap labour have become the mantra to distract people from inflation in housing and education, Wall Street's casino economy and the fact that we have been transferring wealth and expertise to the largest one party dictatorship the world has ever seen.

[@williamsignet1693]

This talk is disturbing in several ways. I wish I could think of what they are.

[@peterclarke3020]

While Elon has not done well with Twitter/X, he is good at manufacturing, and it’s because he get bored not doing enough. Maybe you should ask Elon to help with some of this manufacturing ? He would probably suggest mass manufacturing 20+ different types of drones, which have proved so useful in Ukraine.

[@jima3129]

Can somebody tell me why we can't have people like Steven Kotkin as Secretary of State? VDH as Secretary of War? Dr. Thomas Sowell in charge of race relations?

[@Greenlightandgo]

Bring on the mech suits and kamikaze drones!!!!

[@peterclarke3020]

Forget the Mech suites.. Focus on the cheap mass produced drones.

[@bartsolari5035]

could the U.S. be facing a doomsday gap...?

[@gagamba9198]

@1:11:46 Prof Kotkin is a bit incorrect about the military being comprised of a significant portion of those from deprived socio-economic backgrounds - this is a Hollywood and pop music trope due to Vietnam and McNamara's reckless induction programme. Since the '80s the volunteer army is middle-class. Today, the lowest socio-economic quintile is 13% of the military. The top quintile is 18%. The second, third, and fourth quintiles are over represented. Why? Mostly due to tertiary educational expense. The wealthy can pay and the very poor are provided all kinds of financial assistance. The middle-class doesn't have the wealth and has less access to leg-up programmes. Further, the military is selective. Didn't graduate high school? Tough time to get in. Gang membership? Same. Conviction? Nope. Poor Armed Services Vocational Aptitude Battery test (heavily g-loaded) result? One won't be inducted. Are all people from the lowest quintile this? No. But it skews more so.

[@tobyw9573]

The Zumwalt destroyer is a great ship, but it should be designed like a Swiss Army knife -proof of concept exercise. Try the components separately and make arms systems interchangeable. Design fixed ship plans, then build one or two and try out the hull and size, then modify succeeding ships. There are numerous versions of the Arleigh Burke destroyers over decades. Zumwalts were essentially rejected due to problems with their 155mm autoloading cannon with new tech with minor rocket assist and aim-ability. Currently, the 155mm round is used widely in Ukraine and in various US Army weapons, in various degrees of sophistication. Make the ship use modular construction. Weapons, electronics, engines, should be easily changed or changed in future versions. Musk is using that "Design, test, fix/upgrade, test" development model in his rockets. When possible, develop, perfect, and use widely. Zumwalts are around 50% greater displacement allowing far greater fuel and ammunition capacity with only 100 extra feet of length. He who runs out of ammo, range, and speed first loses the battle. See online war games.

[@jimsummers487]

Competition is a sin…

[@TheOldPM]

You’ll need an overwhelmingly different mindset that gets away from supercarrier thinking, ridiculously expensive aircraft, and focused planning that doesn’t result in LCS crap. Stop tossing out technology buzzwords and come up with philosophical directions that provide real solutions to confronting and overcoming adversaries. We also need to screen the flag officers more carefully. We can identify flag officers by the politicians who nominated them. “Obama’s admirals.” “Biden’s generals.” Etc Flags are America’s resources

[@jons8439]

Set up a rumble account.

[@mortysroom]

Chris’s commenting that US has 300 ships like it’s not enough. Or 69 subs aren’t enough. When they can all carry nuclear warheads. Einsteins rolling in his grave.

[@andrewbaldwin4454]

I signed out about the 25 minutes mark when Brose claimed that Ukraine has fought Russia to a standstill. In your dreams, Brose!

[@robhaythorne4464]

There is nothing inherently wrong with the PPBE System except for the fact that everyone involved tries to do everyone else's jobs while ignoring their own responsibiities. What's required is discipline. In order to have discipline within the system, definitions are necessary. Sadly, this whole discussion lacked any clear definitions of what is wrong and what is being proposed. Frankly, this whole production was Kamala-esque. Nothing but a word salad, leading nowhere.

[@peterclarke3020]

The General ideas are there - but only in rough form.

[@paulsansonetti7410]

22:00 Ukraine didnt hit 50% of Russias combat power

[@roblangsdorf8758]

It would be interesting to here a discussion about the impact of screening out the dedicated officers and enlisted through demanding WOKENESS and tossing out people who recognized that there were problems with the mRNA vaccine. Has this weakened our armed forces? WWII was won by junior officers and enlisted men who could think for themselves and take over when needed. Can our current forces still do this?

[@birdstrikes]

They'd discuss it if it were relevant.

[@josephpadula2283]

Sarah and her two mommies will pick up the slack ….

[@kingcrazymani4133]

I listened to Mr. Kotkin’s introduction. I was reminded of a 2006 encounter I had in Boston with Arthur Schlesinger Jr.. If we were to go by the official records of the day, he was absolutely right in his assessment of the situation, except for one thing, to which he stipulated by one of his characteristic omissions, by denying one fact and not denying the other. If one goes by both the public record and documentation not public at the time or since, Dr. Schlesinger was a fool. I went back to the homeless shelter (public documentation) as nothing but a crazy bum in a filled up city (“crazy bum” was a fact to which Dr. Schlesinger did not stipulate). My point is that if one headhunts the most important information from lists of information, one ends up with whatever is left. Someone asked me last week to describe what I do. I replied, “take the lists of important information of ten topics I am involved with. Then take out the two most important items on each list. What remains is your list. I get that and the top twenty items.” I could continue, but I won’t. Except to say that John McCain made the same mistake that Dr. Schlesinger made, from 2000 to 2017. I had some hope in late summer 2000, when Senator McCain, riding in a Duck Boat, grabbed the microphone from the tour guide, looked over at me, sitting on a Copley Square bench, and said, “Get a job, ya bum!”. I listened to a short part of Mr. Brose’s argument, one which I basically know, and would say that he has a chance at doing better than his old boss did over a 17 year period, in regard to the headhunted-from-public-discussions 3-5 most important issues of the 21st Century to date. What once amazed me was the inability of an allegedly competing press and allegedly competing nations, to discuss any of these 3-5 things. I might also add that the geniuses have played similar games with Tom Sowell’s work on economic/political history. Tom’s body of work is what I call a “truth sink” which almost never discharges any truth, except among a small circle of people.

[@finsup7029]

25 minutes in. This guy needs to be real. The real issue is why doesn't our youth want to sign up for military services? I think we know why

[@peterclarke3020]

Then also say ‘why’.. There is no harm in being explicit in your explanation, rather than letting each person come to their own conclusion.

[@birdstrikes]

You think you know why, but you have no idea because your not based in reality. Facts are cool. Try them.

[@tobyw9573]

If it were not for Hoover's and FDR's Great Depression, the US and Europe may have been too strong to be attacked.

[@kogganator]

kind of, kind of, kind of appropriately inept to be at home with his political/industrial/academic coward peers

[@harryaarrestad583]

Kokin talking listen !

[@hrvojesvetec3058]

The problem cant be money lol..US defense budget is close to 900bil$$$!! a year now..China not even half of that..US should be able to crush China,Russia and few more together lol..with all that cash throw in the game for year after year

[@t.c.s.7724]

Sadly, this discussion comes twenty years too late. Our MIC has entrenched corruption, ossified procurement systems. Game over.

[@kevinjenner9502]

The DOD failed its fifth audit in November 2022, unable to account for 61 percent of its 3.5 trillion in assets….Responsible Statecraft Nov 22, 2022 “The Pentagon fails its fifth audit in a row”

[@MonteRosa849]

Not at all “game over”. What a stupid statement. The capitalist system will always win over a autocratic system.

[@TheTruthSeeker756]

Jesus I don’t have time for this blather. Need chat gpt to summarize in 3 minutes

[@mikerussell3298]

Typical US warmongering rant

[@bobmnz6914]

Nope not that.

[@handleitnow]

How about instead of pissing of and making war with rivals, you stop pushing conflict and war and take a peaceful approach? Then everybody can keep their weapons in the museums.

[@kasumimori1798]

Are these American think-tanks still claiming that Ukraine has reduced Russia's military capability by 50%? At most, they've managed to reduce Russia's initial incursion force by 50%... but Russia has more than restored that force, indeed increasing it by 90% in *each* of 3 mobilizations, whilst Ukraine is now reduced to drafting women into their military, with only a couple of thousand of its original military personnel still able to fight. Perhaps these Americans actually believe that the troops Ukraine has in their imagination will be effective on the real world battlefield. To my mind, the instant someone engages in that sort of wishful thinking borne of willful ignorance, *all* of their credibility evaporates.

[@MonteRosa849]

You’ve already lost all your credibility with your inaccurate, all too obvious russian propaganda rant! Your last russian “hero” will get kicked out of Ukraine like you’ve been kicked out of Afghanistan. But this one will hurt a lot worse! 🇺🇦🇺🇸✌️

[@hrvojesvetec3058]

What are smoking??

[@peterclarke3020]

Only if you base your estimates on published Russian lies.. Info that Ukraine is publishing is much closer to the truth.