Mortgage Stress Even Higher!

[@redsed1565]

who else is celebrating the rate rises ! Woohoooooooooo! yeaahhh babyyy!

[@joshmarks3954]

Wahoo

[@Rhcpbedders]

Yup loving it! … but I fixed my mortgage last year for 5 years @2.5% so that helps…

[@MrZoomah]

Not to rain on your parade but as financial stress increases so does child abuse. It's great that we are prepared and I can understand the schadenfreude for people who leverage up to their noses but this will have huge ramifications to people who aren't to blame at all.

[@Rhcpbedders]

@@MrZoomah of course any increase in domestic abuse or social unrest relating to tough economic times is not good. However it’s also not something that should mean we go back to easy money because of because that will simply delay the inevitable and make the pain even worse when it hits. I really hope lessons are learnt from the difficult times ahead and I’m sure there will be for a time, until we forget about them and do it all over again next cycle…

[@MrZoomah]

@@Rhcpbedders 100% agree. The longer it goes on the worse the pain. The lesson I've learned from other crisis is we don't learn lessons. Correction. The people in power learn new ways to trick people and not get caught.

[@motorheadbeany1903]

Young people just need to stop eating lettuce. Luxury goods like this, is the reason they cant get a house.

[@Rhcpbedders]

Yeah they should start eating avocado on toast they can get 5-10 avos for the cost of a lettuce ;)

[@oppo-tune-nitty8043]

That's funny 🤣

[@becsterbrisbane6275]

And cabbage......honestly! They just rub it in our faces!

[@teenanguyen217]

OR they could enjoy their lettuce and rent. What if they rent their whole lives but get to eat lettuce everyday, or have a house and eat pasta and microwaved plastics in a can.

[@georgepoulos5316]

Mind bending analysis of the macro situation

[@Kimber-bz9fe]

Outstanding as always thank you for all your hard work Martin, God Bless to you

[@WalkTheWorldDFA]

Thank you kindly

[@rogersyme1368]

Brilliant work Martin... many thanks for your insights...

[@WalkTheWorldDFA]

Very welcome

[@dannyb4051]

Up! Up and away! 🎈

[@jamesrodgers9417]

I like your pun about the Swiss economy and let’s be Franc, lol.

[@WalkTheWorldDFA]

You caught it ....

[@rkt81]

@@WalkTheWorldDFA kzbin.info/www/bejne/fKHIaKpum9mngLs

[@esq8]

I caught it too. Very subtle and nearly unnoticeabley delivered Martin lol

[@angelaorzlowski3786]

So informative as usual Martin. Thank you!

[@WalkTheWorldDFA]

Glad it was helpful!

[@amb5176]

Thank you Martin what a great update. You sound so sad in this one, thank you for caring about people. Economics is the gloomy science, and you are so kind to give good advice on how we can help ourselves in this difficult time

[@WalkTheWorldDFA]

Thanks for that

[@MarjjorieDawes]

The answer is simple, eat baked beans and get a tent. You can fart outdoors

[@chmoss6310]

June. Wow. Thanks Martin Chris. Brisbane

[@gloglos100]

Was in terre Madre Melbourne best and cheapest organic shop in Melbourne with full product range..fish, oysters, meat, canned, fresh, and more. Big range. Wonderful shop. It has currently very few customers, compared with being packed, staff said people don’t have the money even though much of fresh vegs are cheaper than supermarket stuff.

[@algae_rhythms]

A lot of people have left the state of Victoria too

[@123blackaxe]

great shop. I go to Wild Things. Haven't noticed a change there, still pretty popular.

[@australiaprisonisland9156]

@@algae_rhythms Do you blame them.

[@algae_rhythms]

@@australiaprisonisland9156 why would I blame them. I'd be out of there too.

[@ings_ings]

I don't like terra madre, mostly produce from China... That's why it's cheap

[@item6931]

This despite what is, historically, still incredibly low interest rates (that will only go up for some time).

[@menangal]

this is a good time to go back to more realistic lifestyle. to prioritize what's essential, what's not. to cut all the excesses. eg. unsubscribe foxtel, choose instead a better and cheaper streaming service. don't upgrade to a new iphone unless the old one is not supported anymore by apple. make your own coffee, it's cheaper and often better. drive a more fuel efficient car, it's better for your pocket and the environment too. so many things people can do to improve their finance. be realistic. be humble. it's not the end of the world.

[@DC180]

there was stress in mortgage before covid as I recall ahhahaha

[@kelvinjames6344]

Rates should of never got that low Prices should never of got that high Toxic combo

[@stevef.m.2188]

Great show Martin ,Great insight ,Thanks

[@WalkTheWorldDFA]

Much appreciated

[@torpedodropkick59]

Paramedics will ask you about your pain, “is it a 10 which is the worst or a 1 which is slight dull ache! “. Banks should ask borrowers the same questions! However no real painkillers available though! 😱😱😱😱😱😱😱😱😱🧐

[@2010xr50]

Pain is worse than 1 but less than 2. To be exact 1.35 🙂

[@arieksk]

I work in property service and my business lost around 50% compare to last year.. there aren't many investors..This has to be the worse turnover for the last 20 years.. watch out..

[@lisakotsi2786]

I concur, I work in this industry too and there are not many investors around alot of investors sold or selling to capitalise on high prices before it falls and more this week due to hikes ... it's abysmal out there

[@grimreaper6112]

@@lisakotsi2786 well you had a good run and everything comes to a end deal with it and i hope it rates go to the moon every rate rise is great loving it.

[@lisakotsi2786]

@@grimreaper6112 how did I have a great run ? I see tenant's struggling that is not fun and I see the social inequity grow larger and that grimreaper is when revolutions occur and that may not be so much fun to watch on sidelines.

[@lisakotsi2786]

@@Diddydudat flexible how? I feel for my clients not sure how I can be flexible here

[@AlienLivesMatter]

Quantitative population growth agenda, fueling a credit bubble and speculative mania was always a path to failure. The RBA's decade of cash rate cuts and panic cash rate increases should send the demographics mentioned above back to the stone age. They deserve all the fruits of their own ideological poison.

[@pb9040]

Yes well everyone one had it easy for 12yrs fair bit of saving in that time to pay down now

[@redsed1565]

ING 2.6.......... im smashed! ahik ahik!

[@mizmelbourne]

The stressed postcodes in VIC are outer suburban, so are hit by the fuel price rise too (v.difficult to rely on public transport in those areas)

[@diceman999]

"We're not even thinking about, thinking about raising interest rates". J. Powell

[@2010xr50]

Hardly stress yet. Some people thrive on it. They are happy to tell you how financially stressed they are but in there next breath back it up with the fact they just installed a pool with all the trimmings or point to there new car.

[@motorheadbeany1903]

Yeap, cracks appear then all at once it collapses. Like the GFC in US.

[@Yolo942]

So true.

[@cze33e]

Equity maaate !!!!

[@AlienLivesMatter]

Quantitative population growth agenda failed Hitler only before he valued Jews as worth less than their shoes. Why we have been repeating this path for decades just to supersize bank profits??... paints the rba as a mindless apes. I hope they send you idiots off to fight Duttons future China wars...

[@TheMonaro]

I grew up in the berra, still work there and it doesn't supprise me that Canberra is the highest for overall financial stress from Canberra times fact check for a comment made by Dennis Richardson, ex-ASIO director-general and former secretary of the Foreign Affairs and Defence Department. June 11, 2019. Based on the figures AAP FactCheck concludes that Mr Richardson's claim that 40 per cent of Australia's public servants work in Canberra is mostly true. However, data on the number of public servants who live in the ACT could not be verified. So Public service Workers are 40% and they may not live there (but I think most do) Lowest paid public servants are not paid well Wages for non govt. workers are low second highest house price and highest rent in OZ Expensive fuel (small number of owners) Expensive food - shops and takeaway Really expensive vets (small number of owners) There are virtually no bulk bill doctors and they are very expensive. It's a way better hospital system in NSW. You do not want anyone in your family or your pets to get sick in Canberra I regularly hear young people wanting to leave for other locations for all who do not work in the public sector

[@brandontr8946]

Thanks Marty for the update, i still wonder why Wollong and Illawara are still relatively solid?

[@tcmonster]

Do you have a link to the online postcode forecaster?

[@WalkTheWorldDFA]

Available via Patreon - links in the comments

[@OmnipotentPeaceMan]

tyty, this cleared up some things for me, I believe just wait and see is the best choice currently still thank you.

[@WalkTheWorldDFA]

You’re welcome 😊

[@mattu5118]

Hey Martin thanks for this, but your maps could be improved significantly. Rather than using a colour scale based on fixed number of households, the scale should be based on percentage of houses in that postcode that are stressed: it could be 1-20%, 21-40%, etc. This would make comparing stress between different postcodes and cities much more reliable (which is what you are presenting), since the population disparity between them is so great. Cheers

[@WalkTheWorldDFA]

I have % maps = might make a separate show - but small counts in some post codes distorts the results...

[@andyhawkes5743]

How many thousands of fixed rate mortgages expire every day ?

[@AussieStandsWithRussia]

But interest rates can only go down House prices can only go up I should be able to borrow beyond my means I should be able to have what I want now and pay later Me, me , me Well all you naysayers and the economic ignorant your time is up. The old school who know what high interest rates are told you all and you didn’t listen. You will be or are about to be in negative equity with interest hitting you on everything from you car, credit card, mortgages and jetskis and when you flood the market to get out and sell you’ll only accelerate your demise. Good luck.

[@Andrew-hu1bx]

100% agree with you mate. I’m young tho and a lot of my mates think it has been fine to live beyond there means and buy into property because prices only go up. That way of thinking was only 6 months ago and how quickly times have changed. We all knew this was coming tho.

[@David-lr2vi]

@@Andrew-hu1bx Well all of us who were paying attention knew this was coming. The majority are ignorant to economics and couldn’t care less even though it affects them greatly.

[@Andrew-hu1bx]

@@David-lr2vi yeah that exactly what I mean, all of us here that understand that printing to infinity will back fire. It’s frustrating to see it all play out because people don’t want there narrative ruined that prices don’t always go up, so they get annoyed when you say the economy will more than likely slow down.

[@lisakotsi2786]

Whilst admirable at the time of high interest rates the cost of living at that time was much lower all energy petrol food and water including no gst was substantially different in fact a house may have done it tough on 1 wage but could survive. Yes sure certain luxuries like mobile phones computers and playstations not the norm. However it is a must primary school kids today have a computer and getting that way high school kids expected to have a mobile phone my sons are expected to have phone for elite sports. So please compare apples with apples not oranges.

[@hrausss]

If the government's stop this crash I promise you I will be super scared. This crash should have happened 20 years ago

[@limlwl]

Imagine being in Mortgage stress for 30 years!! That's no way to live, just to buy high price properties!!

[@lisajason111]

There is a three months delay between interest rate and mortgage application and property price. it's just starting.

[@RK-ud4wk]

Question, do your models apply to rural properties/farms in regional postcodes or just town houses & units? I have been studying the rural property market for some time now and can not see it cooling any time soon. What are your thoughts?

[@theobradley5926]

To the moon baby, especially on the fringe of metro areas.

[@MullockHeap]

Impact of floods on inflation?

[@torpedodropkick59]

Minor influence to the big picture! Energy cost impact transport of goods, food etc!

[@maskmanfive3774]

This is only the teaser .... Wait til we get to Main Course and maybe no appetite for Dessert

[@atb12312]

Mortgage stress: everyone except boomers

[@redsed1565]

30th yayy!

[@mizmelbourne]

I think a lot of the Melbourne CBD (postcode 3000) properties would be foreign owned so the investors have considerable financial assets behind them. I’ve not seen many cbd properties go on the market to this point of the pandemic. Even though they are registering as “stressed investors”, they are not in a position where they need to sell. I expect they’ll just ride out the downturn.

[@walmartgolem]

What happened in 2016? Things have gone off the rails radically since that point in time.

[@edwin5419]

And of course it's the wealthy seniors telling the young families about how much more difficult things were back in their day. Lol

[@torpedodropkick59]

Other than the 30’s Economic Depression, yeh! 😂😱

[@torpedodropkick59]

But they worked from 15 years of age and banks only loaned money by a bank it’s local manager would assess the loan. Banks weren’t private either looking to loan money to anyone!

[@edwin5419]

@@torpedodropkick59 many of us have worked from 15 (or 14 in my case)

[@edwin5419]

@@torpedodropkick59 and how many of those who remember the 1930s are still alive and coherent? 🤣

[@grimreaper6112]

@Half pint Half pint or more like half wit.

[@hypehype1982]

I live in narre warren doesn't seem like mortgage stress, fountain gate shopping centre is packed with people. People must be able to hide there stress well. I do think some of the people who brought house on my street be regretting it as prices went up alot and I have seen properties sell in less than a week.

[@robreid6195]

We get 42 statistics-packed minutes of information covering the country at a low level of granularity, with analysis, and you easily refute it with an observation that your local shops seem full. Why does Martin even bother?

[@chmoss6310]

Toowoomba is similar

[@dreadnaught7995]

Credit cards and more debt

[@hypehype1982]

@@robreid6195 So I can't make observations ? I guess you didn't read my comment, never said he was wrong all I did is make a comment on my observation about the area I live.

[@hypehype1982]

@@dreadnaught7995 crazy times, retail therapy pay back is going to be a b**ch

[@zaraimpala3962]

so morgtage stress is concentrated in new housing developments?

[@WalkTheWorldDFA]

Not exclusively.

[@farqueue]

These numbers would drop to the low teens if they just stopped these ridiculous taxes

[@timbrown7368]

1

[@wallstreetrevolution5202]

What is classified as mortgage stress? H9w is this determined? Do you need to call the bank and say your having financial difficulty or is it about dishonors?

[@WalkTheWorldDFA]

I explain in show - its cash flow negative.

[@vamsumkristin59]

I have stopped looking to purchase a house in Berwick after the report on Mortgage stress. I am now looking at increasing my budget to purchase a house in other suburbs in Melbourne SE.

[@scorp2011hd]

Should wait for at least a year…. prices will definitely drop everywhere

[@AlienLivesMatter]

Enjoy spending half your day commuting in halfbrain traffic with all the other "I'll just drive further morons"

[@cinemaipswich4636]

Over the last 3 years Banks have pandered to the least likely people who could ever pay a mortgage. They are the trailing edge of the mortgage market. Now we see them screwed, because the advertisers sucked in these losers who could never repay a debt, once interest rate went up. This Capitalism.

[@123blackaxe]

Capitalism? Capitalism lets businesses fail and reset, a free market. You wouldn't have a juiced up ponzi scheme property market with true capitalism. Crony capitalism, neoliberalism perhaps.

[@AlienLivesMatter]

Hitler tried quantitative population growth agenda just before he valued Jews as worth less than their shoes. Ours fuelled credit bubbles, rentseeking and speculation. Our Westminster apes, their corporate fascists and the rba clownshow are decades deep into repeating the same mistakes centuries apart. Corporate fascism justifies itself as capitalism is why I know these half brain apes will march you into famine and war before they consider your best interests. Eat the elite and liquify their sheep.

[@AlienLivesMatter]

💩💩💩💩

[@cyruschadrezzar]

Hozho - Honey Trap

[@joshslater9835]

I think this will take years to play out/recover.

[@Rhcpbedders]

At least a decade I reckon

[@joshslater9835]

@@Rhcpbedders Not much seems to be lining up in anyone's favour for the foreseeable future.

[@mikebuckley46]

But but housing is going to the moon 🌙 😂😂😂😂

[@mjb6446]

46% house price falls... Imagine the carnage... That's close to the 50% figure that many, including myself, thought that people were nuts for considering feasible. If we get to a 3.5% cash rate, I can see 35% occurring...

[@AlienLivesMatter]

I hope the decade of cash rate cuts, and resulting panic raising of rates sends the economy back to the stone age. All flavours of our Westminster clownshow are complicit and deserving.

[@coasteyscoasteys]

@@Itsokay.nottobeokaaaay It's a great opportunity now Buy more now

[@BENNO117]

35% is nothing. Many towns and cities saw a 40% price rise in 12 months.

[@frasersamuel2867]

Im curious what level of mortgage defaults would cause problems in our banking sector? I suspect about 7% mortgage defaults would pose issues.

[@TheFleetz]

News tonight reported that rate is expected to peak at 3 to 3.5% around mid 2024. Then the RBA is expected to start reducing interest rates which is currently supported by the bond rate which is 3 year forward looking which is currently falling in expectation rate will fall after they have peaked and inflation in back in check. The sky is not falling in....

[@Rhcpbedders]

Unbelievable they think rates can stay at those levels for that long without breaking something. I’ll be astounded if rates aren’t back near 0 by early 2023

[@TheFleetz]

@@fengels1004 long term bonds are heading south....Lowe is pulling the strings, the bond market is responding. It’s a long game which is going to be manipulated for a softer landing than a lot are predicting. The RBA are not going to drive the bus over the cliff.

[@TheFleetz]

@@fengels1004 not saying there is going to some pain along the way. No I believe RBA will likely reset there target inflation range to 3 to 4% and will be happy to see the cash rate at around 3%

[@TheFleetz]

@@Itsokay.nottobeokaaaay agree....

[@maskmanfive3774]

Newtons Laws of Gravity remains unchallenged ... What goes Up must eventually Come Down ...

[@jjk087]

Sky falling

[@jameswillis8969]

Consumer confidence and mortgage stress doesn’t seem to be a consideration for the RBA Aren’t they bound by charter to serve the prosperity of Australians?

[@joek292]

Consumer confidence is as they have said they will be monitoring consumption spending.

[@tjunglec]

No, they're not

[@gloglos100]

The RBA is a bank, that ses it all. Well ses it politely.

[@jameswillis8969]

@@tjunglec It is the duty of the Reserve Bank Board, within the limits of its powers, to ensure that the monetary and banking policy of the Bank is directed to the greatest advantage of the people of Australia and that the powers of the Bank … are exercised in such a manner as, in the opinion of the Reserve Bank Board, will best contribute to: the stability of the currency of Australia; the maintenance of full employment in Australia; and the economic prosperity and welfare of the people of Australia.

[@GoldenWaveTitans]

Inflation is a bigger threat to national prosperity than interest rate rises. Lol.

[@konradprz]

Hi Martin, is there somewhere we can find an explanation of your demographic categories (for the stress data)

[@markmaker2488]

8:50

[@teenanguyen217]

So I was at my local buffet the other day, and it was packed... felt like everyone was just chilling and enjoying themselves, what is up with all this negative reporting?

[@kernelab]

They are trying to store a weeks worth of food in their gut to save on groceries

[@AlienLivesMatter]

People just spending their new lines of credit, bnpl credit cards etc etcetera

[@AlienLivesMatter]

💩💩💩💩

[@ballaratevil6048]

Mortgage stress doesn't have to be stress full just budget and balance the book's..It is like a full time job.

[@walmartgolem]

But but... the Kouk said you're a conspiracy theorist. Times have never been better!

[@amb5176]

Mr North has the data and all the brains to match

[@cynthiawalton2598]

I think we need the new qfc finacial system to come in fast. Gold backed like Russia and forget the old ways of useless paper money

[@crocaduckfull]

First🙂

[@mayurdpd]

No :)

[@edwin5419]

🏆

[@NotPoliticallyCorrect407]

you wish. 😂👍

[@jessekoch3480]

Don't follow NZ reserve there's more at play than is reported here. Adorn is here for reasons Aussies won't like.

[@AislingMonahan]

??? What do you mean please?