Multiplicative Seasonal Forecasting

[@ibex599]

are we dividing 20,000 by 4 seasons ?

[@The_Business_Doctor]

Hi Ibex. There appears to be an error in my calculation. That should be divided by a total of 16 seasons observed (4 seasons x 4 years). The average of 1,250 is correct but I wrote and spoke was not. Thank you for noticing that. Mark

[@princeakpabli7988]

please can i get the link to download the book you were using

[@The_Business_Doctor]

This is the ISBN for the current version of the textbook: 9780137319084, 0137319088 Operations Management: Sustainability and Supply Chain Management (Canadian Edition) 4th Edition by Jay Heizer; Barry Render; Chuck Munson; Paul Griffin

[@LyricallyLit0203]

How do i calculate the 2019 forcast, without knowing the demand?

[@The_Business_Doctor]

For this method you would have to determine , or be provided with, a forecast for the year, which you then take and distribute to the seasons based on the seasonal indexes. So you’re basically working backwards. Hope this helps.

[@nanar97]

Hi! What if we don't have the annual demand stated in the question, instead the question states "estimate the quarterly demand for the fifth year."?

[@The_Business_Doctor]

Hi Naanar. This method of forecasting requires you to have a forecasting demand for the next year so you can break that down into the seasonal components. Hope this helps. Mark

[@britishrockguy3229]

Since when does Dividing 20,000 by 4 give you1250? Surely it is 5,000?

[@The_Business_Doctor]

There is a note in the description confirming the calculation is 20,000/16 seasons = 1,250. 16 seasons is 4 years x 4 seasons per year. Hope this helps

[@kimani_wj]

I found this video very helpful. 👍

[@The_Business_Doctor]

I’m glad it was helpful.

[@esotandoketani8806]

Why is 20,000 ÷ 4 = 1250 but not 5000

[@The_Business_Doctor]

NOTE: At 6:16, there is an error in the amount written and spoken in the calculation of the seasonal average. The correct calculation is 20,000 ÷ 16 total seasons (4 seasons per year × 4 years) = a seasonal averrable of 1,250. The video ink and audio states 4 seasons but should be 16. The rest of the video is correct.

[@Matt_Davis]

wait 20 000/4 is 5000 , why you placed 1250?

[@The_Business_Doctor]

Yes. That error is noted in the description.

[@eda-rv7mw]

thank you

[@The_Business_Doctor]

You’re welcome!