My 2024 Goodreads Choice Awards Predictions (Mystery/Thriller) 🏆

[@alexatiletile3257]

As a fellow numbers girlie, your Goodreads predictions video is always my favorite to watch since I love your process! 🤓

[@AndreaGReads]

You’re such an Excel wizard! Love watching your process and seeing all these fascinating (though sometimes depressing) stats! 😂

[@NovelsWithNicole]

I predicted just on vibes that the first lie wins will be the winner 🥇 so I’m glad your data backs me up 😅 this was so fun to watch!

[@natcommon]

Yes!! I've been waiting for this. I think you have this in the bag. Another metric you could add for next year is if the author has been a winner or nominated previously.

[@AliDoisRead]

I’ve been refreshing your page for this 😂🎉🎉🎉

[@annaswanangel91011]

IM SO EXCITED! I've been patiently waiting for this video!

[@conniebrantley3943]

I just finished Nightwatching and I loved it.

[@kenzienoelle124]

Ohhhh yesss I’m sat🤓👀

[@erinkessler23]

I look forward to watching this video from you every year!

[@dessertcomes1st]

Me too!

[@juliar2416]

I spend the entire year waiting for this single video!! I'd love to see you try this based on numbers and vibes mostly for a category you don't read, so we could see how correct you could be on the math side only. Maybe trying it with debut books would be fun, as they are new books and it would be more on plot/marketing.

[@ashleyslittlelibrary]

Oooh that sounds like a fun challenge!

[@hannahwilborn2755]

My favorite video of the year!!

[@louise5493]

Love me some GR content! I think your predictions are spot on, that Frieda reign just won’t let up & I hate that for us😭

[@ruki342]

Amazing as always. Your predictions video is one of my most favorite of the year!

[@Sobeykin]

I always look forward to you doing these at the end of the year! Can't wait to see what's actually voted into the Top 20!

[@cherylNA]

I always appreciate your analytical approach for this video!

[@Gilly1113]

Ahhh! I’ve been waiting for you to post this video!🎉

[@conniebrantley3943]

I love the way you rank these Ashley

[@chrelainel5833]

Murder Road is the one I wonder about. It gets talked about a lot and many people love Simone St. James. I have heard this wasn't one of her best, but I wonder if it will appear anyway.

[@kerisbookishcorner2864]

I love this video also-it’s one of my favorites from any creator all year! I love going through your process with you and then going along and seeing how many you get right later. I definitely hope your winner is wrong lol. I’m hoping Freida votes are split enough that neither wins and can’t wait to see how it goes!

[@ashleyslittlelibrary]

Hahaha I’m hoping that too 😂

[@fellazahaf2604]

Love your videos ❤

[@JohnSaxon-vw5vi]

Wishing you all the best in your predictions hopefully you get a few winners love ❤️ your Aussie family friend John xxx

[@Allyz375]

Loved this video!🤩

[@LocDBooktician]

I am sit and sattttttt

[@JayGTheAwkwardBookworm]

lol I’ve only read the heiress for your top 20! Definitely think the teacher will win just because of how popular it is lol

[@GabrielTheMagolorMain]

I’m not sure what the dates are for eligibility..this book came out 10/10/23 , but You Always Come Back by Emily Smith has a 3.9 and a couple thousand reviews. It feels like one of those lesser known novels that could make it in. It’s also a great mystery thriller, it’s stuck with me. For a debut the writing was excellent, and she did this great symbolism with lightning that just hit me. I wish more people knew about this novel! And nooooooo on Freida McFadden. Ugh..

[@celly589]

I read the most books I’ve ever read this year but I’m surprised I read not one, not two, but three on your potential list! Also, how the heck has it been almost a year since I read some of them, doesn’t feel like it!

[@1birdinthesky]

Love a good spreadsheet! I feel like # of shelved/want to reads are also key metrics to consider. Curious what formula you're using to pull the data points automatically from GoodReads? I tried looking into doing something similar for my own personal book tracker but couldn't figure it out.

[@ashleyslittlelibrary]

I use an importxml formula!

[@dessertcomes1st]

Ashley, you should do your top 20 for the year.

[@christinacampbellbooks]

Really enjoyed watching you break down all these statistics! My vote is definitely going to be We Solve Murders ☺

[@eheider8820]

It’s not on the Goodreads list but my sister’s book is on the Publisher’s Weekly Best Books 2024. If you like mystery, try “May the Wolf Die.”

[@WandasBestLife]

I love watching your take on the Goodreads nominees. Botm lists The Frozen River as Historical Fiction, The God of the Woods as Literary, and All the Colors of the Dark as Mystery. That's also the categories I think they'll end up in. The historical fiction booktubers and my groups on Facebook all call The Frozen River Historical. And I've read one one Freida McFadden (The Prisoner) and really don't understand the hype for her. Not well written and just a stupid storyline. And the way the audiobook narrator said penitentiary was just laughable. No plans to read her other books but they're so popular!

[@jasong340]

Frozen River was great! It has a mystery but I wouldn't consider it mystery/thriller.

[@charlig3185]

This is also my favourite video of the year! Unfortunately I think the teacher is also going to win

[@leezirkle7840]

I wish you would reconsider and do horror too

[@robynbravi8833]

I've read Here One Moment and I think it'll be in the Fiction category. Just my guess.

[@carolinaalves1161]

I think it would be cool if you added a column for 'previous (or # of) GCA winner/nominee'

[@deniseheins2133]

Okay, I've only read 12 from this grouping. Top of the list for me - All the Colors. But it reads so literary, it seems very torn among people. I think it will definitely get the nod. I think The Frozen River will go in the HF category. The God of The Woods, definitely agree. Freida is a solid 3 stars for me most of the time but people love her fast reads, so she'll definitely be there. I really liked "The Lying" books, agree there. I rarely hear anything good about Home/Bodies, most people don't seem to love it? I'd be surprised if it's nominated. A Calamity of Souls by David Baldacci should be nominated, it's excellent. Where is Strange Sally Diamond? Does it not qualify?

[@ashleyslittlelibrary]

It looks like Strange Sally Diamond was published in March of 2023 so it won’t be eligible for this year!

[@nessaelyzabethsnook]

I am new here but is there a place I could acquire the spreadsheet?

[@Laura_Reads]

I love your predictions but I think Frieda fans having to split their votes will hurt her and it’s going to be First Lie Wins. 🎉 I want to read some of the ones you rated highly that won’t make it!

[@mattthepageturner9128]

Also realllllly hoping Elston overtakes Freida, the teacher was so bad and even problematic! I do think you overlooked the new Laura Dave tho, it’s new and has a lower rating but she won the category with her last book. Karin Slaughter also seems to be always nominated

[@ashleyslittlelibrary]

Yeah I was back and forth on Slaughter, and ooooh you’re right I forgot about the Laura Dave 👀

[@mattthepageturner9128]

@ashleyslittlelibrary also jason rekulak! hidden pictures won horror and his new book is mystery so i’m thinking it’ll end up here. this genre is sooo crowded this year it’s impossible to predict!

[@natashalast9688]

Love this video. Unfortunately, I agree the Frieda will take it again this year. Here One Moment is a beautiful book (one of my favs of the year), but it honestly doesn’t belong in this category. There is no mystery. It is literary fiction. Let’s hope Goodreads agrees with me 😅

[@jimsbooksreadingandstuff]

Of the three Freida McFaddens I have only read The Teacher, but it is not one of her best.

[@LimKeis-lm4kf]

I think all the colors of the dark should be the winner BOTY

[@sailingqueen678]

I think we need to reevaluate the number of ratings a book needs to be accepted because the leftover women was in the top 20 of last year and still barely has 25k ratings. Edit: mentioning this because Megan and Mara also immediately turned away Karin Slaughter. 😢