My Top 10 Whiskey Predictions for 2025

[@graveshotx]

I more or less see your logic with these predictions, and agree with caveats. Here's my predictions: - Barrell will be bought by someone - We will see at least 1 whiskeytuber hired by a brand to develop a product (like Matt at ADHD whiskey got hired by Barrell King) - The legacy market will continue to bifurcate with rising prices on limited editions and new consumer friendly releases being a mixed bag (2024 saw Jim Beam Black Label 7yr, Traveler Whiskey, Bulleit 12 year rye, Jack Daniels Bonded Rye, Angel's Envy Triple Oak, etc.) - Craft and NDP whiskey will dominate the non-allocated 80-120 price range, but that competition will put a strain on the distilleries involved. Small producers that create a hit that is profitable at the 40-50 level, will thrive. - "Discovered" distillery of 2025 will be Lost State Distilling. They are a small operation on the border of Tennessee and Virginia and they have 5-6 year old stock that tastes good and is at a great price for barrel picks. They remind me a little of Crittenden's before they were featured on Brewzle. - We're going to see even more finished whiskey blends. Cigar batches started a trend that I think will grow even more into 2025, especially with craft producers. As for AI being involved in the whiskey industry in any way, I am dubious. If you ask around to see what kind of software engineers are involved in writing the software behind the machines they operate, it's all outsourced. Bardstown may be collecting data on their barrels, but as for what they're able to do with it, we'll see. I have an AI "blended" malt whiskey from Mackmyra called Intelligens in my collection. I'll let you know what I think when I crack it open.

[@BourbonRetriever]

Once again, you outshine yourself! This is a well rounded and thoughtful response with some great insights. Wish I could give you 100 likes. Barrel: They seem like an easy target given their cash struggles, but I'm not sure of the value proposition to the buyer. I don't think they carry much brand equity/loyalty. Cool take on another content creator: Maybe Cam to River Roots? Probably would be another single host channel, but not sure who has the biggest following with accredited palate. Most other large channels have their own brands already started. I have never heard of Lost State Distilling! I'm going to be searching for a bottle ASAP. Maybe convince myself to do a long weekend for a tour. I really really really hope we don't get more finishes. I understand they are trying to be different with everyone having the same aged MGP juice, but I'm not a big fan of finished whiskey as most of the time it feels like they are trying to cover up bad whiskey. Very few and in between does it feel like they are trying to balance a whiskey that needs a certain hit to make a well rounded pour. Interested to hear the background on your AI bottle. Never heard of it. As with AI in general, it would be pretty funny if it came to the same conclusion distilleries have been doing by word of mouth for years. I think Buffalo trace did an experiment with wood and found the winner was what they were already doing with Buffalo Trace

[@graveshotx]

@@BourbonRetriever Barrell I think has just enough brand credibility to be acquired. If I were a betting man, I'd say Anhaiser-Bush is possible as they currently own only Cutwater Spirits, and they sold Breckenridge in 2023. Another wildcard may be Heineken USA as they may seek to diversify out of just beer. A very real possibility is a merger between Barrell and Pursuit Spirits as what they both do is so similar and the people involved know each other. Cam would be at the top of my Whiskeytube fantasy draft picks. Jason C on Mash and Drum would be a close second. As for Lost State Distilling, more than happy to share some. My bottles are from 2023, so would be more about showing off the potential of their stock. Everything they do is 53 gallon. The story from the founder/distiller is that he liked Weller so much he tried to create it for himself. The Franklin Four is low tier flavor wise, but only $20 for a 375ml of 120 proof Bourbon, so kinda their value offering to local distribution. The Shelby's Reserve Cask Strength has a mash bill 60% corn, 30% wheat, 10% malted barley and is the best thing they make, it cost me $40 at the distillery. The bottle I have from 2023 was just on that fine line between ok and good. They also have a good white dog product, amongst the typical distillery range. Fred Minnick's Club Marzipan just did a barrel pick with them, and I've heard that barrel is really good. I know you're not a fan of finishes, but I picked up a stout finish from them that's my favorite thing they had when I visited the distillery. I agree that finishing seems to be used to cover up for bad whiskey. That said, no amount of finishing can make up for truly awful whiskey. Finishing is preferred by small producers these days because they do not have enough barrel stock to blend away the bad aspects of bunk barrels. Finishing is still en vogue right now. Small producers use it to create unique offering to their die hard fans. I personally like finished whiskey a lot as it introduces flavors that often don't exist in straight whiskey. That reminds me, one more prediction for 2025-2026: Some American distillery (Probably Bardstown) will do a collaboration with Springbank distillery. The Mackmyra is a Swedish distillery. Funny enough, they almost went bankrupt last year. Regardless, I recommend doing a google search on the Intelligens as its kind of a fun story. As for AI, let's just say if it can make better whiskey than a human, all our jobs are doomed, lol.

[@BuckMcAntlerson]

Haven't subbed to a new bourbon channel in awhile but just did. I appreciate your knowledge in the game.

[@BourbonRetriever]

I appreciate the support! Thanks for subscribing and the kind words. Cheers

[@rufuslumpkin4112]

Followed you from your appearance on Brewzle. Glad I did! 2025 is going to be interesting for the bourbon consumer. Folks are broke. Economy is in shambles. Big name distillers "under produced" previously which has brought us to a current day "over produce" . I can foresee cheaper bottles with better qualities. When those 8 to 10 year barrels don't sell as special releases they'll end up in bottom shelf bottles.

[@BourbonRetriever]

Thanks for following along! It will be interesting to see how it turns out. Cheers 🥃

[@greasyghost]

Barrel/Stellum (love them)could be an acquisition target perhaps. Nashville Barrel Company I love, but I would'nt be surprised if they were aquired either. Interesting take on BBC data collecting. That would be pretty cool.

[@BourbonRetriever]

NBC could be an interesting acquisition! However, most of their cool barrels are blends of Kentucky and MGP juice. If they were acquired, it would be a shame if they only did MGP juice going forward. I'm not sure Barrel would be a great target for MGP. They don't carry a premium designations (even though they try), and would consider them to be competing in the same area as Penelope right now. MGP would probably only do an acquisition if the acquired company would be differentiated enough from Penelope.

[@jasonwatson]

To tag onto the older juice being available, I’m hoping that will take away the need to finish all the younger juice in whatever the latest craze is.

[@BourbonRetriever]

I agree finishes are over done. I hope they do less finishes going forward

[@djvie24]

Couldn’t agree more with you. I literally have a closet of whiskey to try rn. I won’t buy anything new to try. All I will buy this year are Four Roses Store picks of recipes I don’t have (three to go) and things like the Eagle Rare picks I’ve picked up this month. Obv if I come across eh Taylor, Weller antique/ full proof etc. I’ll buy because I love em. But 2025 won’t be a year for hunting new things. I’m tired of trying to catch the latest hype. Often it doesn’t end up other than a bottle you can’t get or something disappointing. The most disappointing thin* out 8n Oregon is how bourbon has turned into a competition between buyers versus connecting with new friends. One of the reasons I started getting into bourbon was to build a community, and that hasn’t panned out in Western Oregon.

[@BourbonRetriever]

Sorry to hear the bourbon community aspect hasn't panned out in Oregon. I hope you can find a cool group of like minded bourbon individuals in the new year.

[@Canadastrong1]

Agreed, most important for me is whiskeys should all be non chilled filtered and natural colour. Majority of my whiskey collection are natural colour and non chilled filtered. Cheers

[@BourbonRetriever]

I'm a big fan of non chill filtered. Wish the Rare Bread Non-Chill Filtered was a domestic release instead of internationally only.

[@eviltrain24]

Went to my favorite Mom and Pop Liquor Whisky specialist Store in Berkeley, CA. on the 3rd, 2025. After buying a few bottles of scotch/taiwanese (trying to make my buys before the stupid tariffs), I was talking to the owner's son and they will be avoiding all speculative purchases. No store picks, no hot new name in scotch/bourbon, no limited edition whiskeys. They will rebuy rotating stock obviously. they will only stick their neck out for targets of opportunity. estate sale purchases if they happen to come up with old bottles. While they would buy the handful of names that they know will sell, but in that case, it's virtually impossible for them as these products don't typically end up in their hands. Basically, they are expecting a significant curtailment of interest in the whisky segment. Their core group of whisky enthusiasts, myself included, are all saying the same thing: we have enough. As for myself, I've spent all my non--American whisky money. I'll pick up a couple of legacy store picks (hoping to see Russell's 10 picks this summer again like last year and then I'll see what comes up for the other bottle I have money to buy. But that is literally it for me when it comes to the American scene. My closet is not only full, it's overflowing. I've drunk my way through most of my lower end stuff and currently drinking my "worst of the very best" stuff. Short of buying my white whale at msrp, if I ever see it at all (Stagg), I've got a tight budget, and I'm hunkering down.

[@BourbonRetriever]

Thanks for the thoughtful response and insight from the liquor store's perspective. I think you aren't alone, as "floor whiskey" is becoming a common term in my area. People have so much, they don't have enough room on the shelves at home. I hope we start seeing older store picks too. Its hard to justify buying more when the stats don't meet expectations.

[@davew6637]

I was at Buffalo Trace 2 weeks ago and picked up a bottle of Blantons, the first Blantons I've ever purchased. E.H. Taylor Single Batch and Eagle Rare are way way better IMO. I doubt I'll ever buy another bottle of Blantons. Maybe I got a sub standard bottle but if this one is typical, I cant understand any of the hype around it.

[@BourbonRetriever]

I agree that Eagle Rare is a superior pour. Especially the store picks. Blantons can be hit or miss. The older single barrels were much older and superior pours. I hope with the slow down that the bottle's ages go back up.

[@ZahraIsMyDog]

I definitely have been buying too many in the 100-120 proof range. I need some solid 80-95 ones.

[@BourbonRetriever]

Agreed. Fingers crossed bottles drop in price a little bit. Cheers 🥃

[@Gylldoh]

My local store had all Kentucky owl half off , all Barrel half off. And a bunch of Penelope bottles for $7. I picked up an architect and rose just cuz why not for the price.

[@BourbonRetriever]

$7?!?! that is an insane price. Can't even get benchmark 8 for the price. Nice snag. Cheers

[@fitter6362]

I have a closet full of products and like you say I’m not looking to just buy anything I’m going to be picky

[@BourbonRetriever]

Agreed, I think many people are in the same boat. Hopefully Distilleries react and starting putting out better products, instead of lower aged whiskey in different finishes.

[@JayMannStuff]

Here in DFW area, loads of store barrel picks just sit on shelves. There's more demand from non store picks.

[@BourbonRetriever]

interesting to hear that there is more demand for non-store picks. Do they have bad picks? Hopefully those stores start getting in better picks. Cheers

[@JayMannStuff]

@BourbonRetriever I think people just got burned a lot with store picks. And new buyers don't want to give them a chance. Plus many are like 20-30% more expensive than the non store picks. Most it's Total Wine that has their store picks sit on shelves, while non store picks are always flying off the shelves.

[@BourbonRetriever]

@ ah, I see. Yep, Total Wine picks sit here too. I agree on the price difference issue. Like ECBP batches are $10-20 cheaper than the picks, which are younger. Hard to grab a pick with those stats and costs

[@JayMannStuff]

@@BourbonRetriever Sometimes the picks are cheaper than the non-picks. And they still sit on the shelf. Basically, if a product isn't hyped on KZbin or another social media, it sits.

[@BourbonRetriever]

@ with so many choices on the shelf it can be hard to know what to grab that you haven’t tried

[@loveandlight8286]

More bottles need to have age statements!! And secondary is got crazy stag jr 400 dallors crazy higher the proof that taste great im down like larceny !!

[@BourbonRetriever]

I hope we see more age statements as more information will help consumers make more informed decisions. I hope Staggs get down to the same price as larceny. Larceny BP are slept on bottles

[@paulgrace1279]

I live in the DMV too and I completely disagree on the prevalence of OF blue label vs black label. There are still OF blue everywhere in DC and MD - and they sit around now for months and months. There is significantly less OF black label available and demand is growing for that product.

[@BourbonRetriever]

Thanks for talking about your insight. Seems to suggest that people are hunting the lower proofs as the black labels sell out as the blue labels sit. Hope you can find a black label soon.

[@jk1203]

Y’all are lucky come to TX you can’t find a blue, black, or green OF pic anywhere. People done here buy em up day of when they are released it’s crazy

[@BourbonRetriever]

@ sorry to hear. Hopefully it gets easier this year

[@SHHDADDYSWORKN]

I think private stores are gonna finally see they're not getting the demand for their prices!

[@BourbonRetriever]

It will be interesting to see how they react. Hopefully they come down like the secondary prices and continue to drop more

[@MetaPrometheus]

I can reasonably see these predictions throughout 2025.

[@BourbonRetriever]

Thanks. I tried to make some reasonable predictions, along with some more spicy takes. Excited to check back in at the end of the year to see how many predictions were correct. Cheers

[@SwanseaTitanFan]

My prediction: bourbon will go the way of beanie babies. They were fun to hunt for a while then they fell out of favour. I’ve settled back to just buying the old standards.

[@BourbonRetriever]

It is hard to risk your money on a new bottle when you know you will love the old standards, for probably a fraction of the price. Why I try to be pretty critical in my reviews. Cheers

[@briancs5884]

They will purchase Brown-Forman

[@BourbonRetriever]

Very bold!

[@mattgoforth8897]

fReD is bought and paid, his rankings mean nothing. Your content is great but that dude is a bum.

[@BourbonRetriever]

Thanks for the support. Cheers 🥃

[@FiFtyBMG_]

Bullet

[@BourbonRetriever]

Bullet would be a very interesting acquisition. High volume bottle that does have a following

[@StreetGlizzy]

pointless limited edition, looking at you HH GTG

[@BourbonRetriever]

I agree. Those bottles seemed to be a miss

[@greasyghost]

Love the g2g blue and green. Already working on backups.

[@BourbonRetriever]

@ glad you love them! Hopefully you can find backups

[@brazenmorris]

You sound smarter than Fred, just saying.

[@BourbonRetriever]

haha, thanks for the kind words. We will see how many of these actually come true. Cheers

[@Lawyerboyleslie72]

I predict the shuttering of a few whiskey tubers pages...I think Brewzle, SLB and Mash n Drum will take over the airwaves and alot of the smaller channels will just fade out. I also predict the hobby will shrink back towards its hard core fanbase. The fad of bourbon is over. The casual bourbon fan has moved on. Most of my friends are out of the game and spending their money again on more traditional hobbies. I'm basing this on the fact that lines at the stores on allocation day here in PA are shrinking. As has been said, most everyone has all the booze they will ever need now in their closet.

[@BourbonRetriever]

I could see that happening, but the smaller channels are constantly starting and closing. Some of my favorite channels stopped putting out content a couple years ago. Most Whiskey KZbinrs do it as a side hobby, and naturally when a person's hobby changes, many of the small channels end up moving on to do other things. The ones that have turned it into a full time job (instead of a hobby) are the ones that continue to stay.