MYANMAR | A Rebel Victory?

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Myanmar (Burma) is home to the world's longest-running civil war. As well as the pro-democracy movement, it has also faced a longstanding insurgency by many ethnic groups. But while international attention has been focused on the Middle East, a major rebel offensive - Operation 1027 - has been playing out in the country that some think might open the way for a final settlement of the country's problems - especially as China appears to have thrown its support behind the offensive. (For rather interesting and unexpected reasons!) So, can Myanmar finally hope to resolve its eighty-year civil war? As always, I look forward to your thoughts and comments below.

[@sebastianwrites]

I just hope if China has thrown its weight behind the rebellion, that the democratic aims of uprising are not undermined?

[@mauribonada2425]

@@sebastianwrites What you have to ask is if the National Endowment for Democracry (NED) is willing to stop supporting one side only and let them negotiate? The us interest in the region are to contain china, encircle it like they did in their civil war against the confederated south.

[@SokhomPrins]

Mafia Xi stole the world and this includes Burma, the Burmese are fighting back and on the way to victory. Aungliang Xi China puppet. But the sad truth is Suikyi will be Xi’s pawn too.

[@kilometer6712]

The the longest hermit country is NK yeah Myanmar is better off than NK 😂

[@srilankamotherland9880]

​@@kilometer6712 North korea also has military dictatorship ruler like Burma ... but north koreans support to pyongyang .... because North korea has made as a nationalist country ... they don't have a ethnic problem like burmese

[@MEH82007]

As the son of parents who fled Burma and being born in a refugee camp in Thailand, I’ve heard countless stories and read many articles about this situation. I can say unequivocally that this is the most accurate description of the situation I’ve ever come across. The history, culture, ethic tensions, and future production is true on all counts. The way this video was articulated to cover the whole conflict in 15 minutes is truly impressive. It must’ve taken weeks if not months to research. Thank you for this production, it brings me joy to see that there are still people like you out there that care about this war, that it is not yet forgotten.

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Thank you so much for the incredibly kind words. It certainly wasn't easy to condense it into such a short video, especially as the ethnic conflict can only really be understood in terms of the separate pro-democracy movement that most people are more familiar with. But I hope that you are doing well. It must have been a tough start in life. Let's hope that the next generation will have a better time.

[@morgancarrillo6004]

MYANMAR NEEDS TO APPROVE AND PASS A NEW CONSTITUTION OF UNION OF FEDERAL MYANMAR , WITHOUT tatmadaw & Administrative Security Council , APPROVED BY THE SUPREME COURT.

[@kiabtoomlauj6249]

@@morgancarrillo6004 Passing laws and creating "federalism" isn't going to hold Burma/Myanmar together.... because at the heart of the struggle, it is a TRIBAL/RELIGIOUS struggle. Buddhism, Islam, and Christianity can never and will never live peacefully side by side.... despite all the polite things polite people in political science, in religious circles, etc. like to do, like to say. Unlike Thailand, Cambodia, & Laos (largely Buddhism, with very small percentages of Christians & Animists & non-believers) or Indonesia (largely Muslims, with small percentages of other religions and Native beliefs) or Vietnam, largely non-religious/totally Communist, as is Laos.... Myanmar is a huge diverse population, again, with THREE OF THE BIGGEST and MOST TRIBAL religious beliefs in the world play very prominent roles, in many ofits biggest provinces: Christianity, Islam, and Buddhism. NONE of them is going to be okay for the others to govern using laws they think favor one religious beliefs or another. MODERN RULING SYSTEMS just can't deal with competing religious groups. If one major group --- e.g. Christians, Muslims, Buddhists, etc ---- is overwhelmingly dominant, then the other religious groups simply HAD to acquiesce to that group, so long as it is not making unreasonable demands. Christianity, for example, is overwhelmingly dominant in the US and Western Europe; and most politicians say THEIR creator of the universe is their guidance force; but even in the US ---- where Christians being the most vocal, most dominant, compared to the largely non-active Christians of most Western Europe, where Christianity is now mostly a tradition, not a rigid religious to live and to die by, in STATE POLITICS, except for the FAR RIGHT CHRISTIANS GROUPS/MOVEMENTS ---- no laws or court decisions are explicitly decided on the basis of Christian, even though MOST judges and juries are Christians. But, again, that is NOT going to be the case in a country like Burma. There, each group ---- Christians, Buddhists, Muslims, etc. --- WILL NEED legislation and court decisions that are explicitly decided on the basis of their religious beliefs.... because THE OTHER GROUPS will also do it.... So, again, right now the various rebel groups ---- plus the MAJORITY ETHNIC, which now has largely turned against its own sons and fathers at the MILITARY RULING STRUCTURE ---- have a COMMON ENEMY... and so they fight to defeat it. But once that MILITARY JUNTA is gone, these various groups, based largely on RELIGIOUS BELIEFS, WILL TURN against each other, too, when they try to form a unity government. It is HARD ENOUGH that you and I, as SECULAR citizens with just different political ideologies (you think society should return to the 1930s and 1800s and I say we need to come up with laws that would do well in the next 35 to 50 years... on PURE economic, educational, and scientific reasoning) .... having to compromise on THOSE NON-RELIGIOUS VARIABLES alone. But if, in addition to those non-religious variables, you and I must also get our RELIGIOUS BELIEFS & religious needs --- which we 100% believed to be holy or divine or whatever the phuc these Stone, Iron, and Bronze age fairy tales are based on --- met or we wouldn't compromise... then, you can see, NO MODERN state/governance, can be formed.... THIS IS NOT AN ARGUMENT for central military juna or communism or other dictatorial ruling systems.... Rather, this is to say, modern humans at the Dawn of the Age of Computers.... should NOT be insisting politics & law & science & education & morality .... be based on THEIR particular holy or divine Stone, Iron, and Bronze age tribal fairy tale beliefs & practices... It just won't work that way, even if, again, EVERY Christian, Muslim, Buddhist, Jew, Hindu et al think if the entire world is into THEIR tribal fairy tales, we would all be living in Heaven on Earth...

[@RyanJosepher]

I've been praying for the country and the people there. There are few of us in the US military that talks openly about it. The few here and god hasn't forgotten.

[@RUTHLESSambition5]

The freedom fighters can take the outside but never the heartland where the real power is. The government had never really had control of those areas to begin with.

[@Asamations]

Thanks for the video James. I still remember doing a video on this back in February 2021 and prediciting a civil war. Myanmar has gone through such a rough period since it's creation. It's so sad to see that my prediction came true. I find this conflict so much more fascinating than many other conflicts because of just how complicated it is. Keep up the great work! :)

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Hi there, Asa. I hope all is well at your end. You were absolutely right. It really has been tragic to see this unfold in the way that it has. But maybe a final military defeat is the only way to end the situation. It needs to be overthrown and then a proper restructuring of the armed forces is needed to make it fully accountable to the democratically elected politicians and fully representative of the country’s different communities. One gets the sense that unless this happens, the military will just step in again at some point.

[@juanvilas5341]

Who would have thought that destroying entire villages and towns because "There are possibly rebels there we don't know for sure but well." makes people so angry and more sympathetic towards the rebels than towards the military junta.

[@DemPilafian]

You aren't wrong, but you did *NOT* provide a solution to address terrorism? What is your solution? Do terrorists get a free pass?

[@aerime]

@@DemPilafian If the military junta return power back to the people. That would address one aspect of the terrorism.

[@DemPilafian]

@@aerime And what would the Rohingya Muslims do to the non-Muslims in their new autonomous state? The problem just keeps going. Drawing *"self-governing"* borders around every ethnic and religious group sounds righteous and utopian, but in reality it's the path to extreme intolerance and endless wars.

[@zvonkobogdan9634]

@@aerime Hahaha. Why doesn't NATO return power back to the people? Why doesn't Kyiv regime return power back to eastern ukrainians and let them govern themselves?

[@qio099]

@@DemPilafian Unlike other ethnic minorities and their respective armed organizations, the rohingyas hold no power. Their two armed organizations, ARSA and RSO, are more interested in fighting each other in the refugee camps instead of setting aside their differences. So much for enpowering their own oppressed ethnicity. Meanwhile AA has become very powerful and holds power over northern rakhine state. At best, all the rohingyas can hope for is AA treat them fairly under their rule. There won't be any seperate state for the rohingya. AA and rakines won't give to them and rohingyas are powerless.

[@hrishikeshmasurkar8434]

You have covered Myanmar’s troubled history and currently on going unfortunate crisis very well… thanks Professor Ker Lindsay! Wishing that Myanmar becomes a stable democracy in the near future…

[@VanaeCavae]

Myanmar's decades old political situation is comparable to the Democratic Republic of Congo. They are both resource rich but riddled with ethnic strife.

[@adrianzanoli]

Yep, thats the entire point of a colonial empire, whoever draw those borders, was only interested in having the largest and most resourceful possible territories under his own flag instead of looking at the local populations.

[@ObsceneSuperMatt]

@@adrianzanoli If only other cultures were capable of a Velvet Divorce instead of trying to kill each other over invisible imaginary lines!

[@jianyang6281]

coz they have 6 levels of citizenships, and ethnic groups are the 6th level. you dont call this country is a democratic country even when it is under Aung San Su Kyy rules.

[@lastsong7159]

​​@@jianyang6281nuance of our conflict matters so please stop spreading your propaganda in all the comment sections. When the British were planning on leaving, they selected a specific Christian ethnic group to take control, and obviously it never happened. Our situation has more to do with political ideologies than anything else. Ideology is what got the modern nation's founding fathered assassinated which led to military rule. Pointing at one person or event is an awful way to understand the situation. There's so many complicated parts to the civil war that it's ignorant and obviously malicious that you would make statements like this.

[@ecIipsed]

@@ObsceneSuperMatt Wow, I didn't know that the Czechs and the Slovaks were colonized! Gtfo with your racist sentiment

[@Urlocallordandsavior]

One thing in which I haven't seen people mention is how rugged Myanmar's geography is. For a country that's slightly larger than Thailand, it's basically surrounded by all sides by very high mountain ranges or plateaus, on whom there's hundreds of different ethnic groups. I'd say whichever path is easiest to peace and stability, regardless of ethnic equity, is the best way to go.

[@notundermywatch3163]

Well said, it is absolutely ruthless geographically. I worked there last year. Amazing country and especially gentle and helpful people.

[@mitsunori222000]

Perhaps you are ignoring the vast Ayewady delta region to the south

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Thanks. Great point about the geography.

[@patrickwahle6280]

Quite similar to Thailand. You can replace the Chao-Praya by the Irrawaddy, Bangkok by Yangon (even if Yangon is not the state capital anymore) and Chiang-Mai by Mandalay. Then you have this long isthmus stretching to Narathiwat in Thailand and Kawthung (Cape Victoria) in Myanmar.

[@davidbowie5023]

@@patrickwahle6280 There are still significant differences between Thailand and Myanmar though. Thailand may have the issues with geography but centuries of effective divide-and-rule plus aggressive assimilation program mean most of these people do not have issues with being Thai citizens, except the Malay Muslims in the south. In Myanmar case, not just rugged territory, but even ethnic divisions and tensions have been built up for several centuries for now to a point ethnicities become such an instrumental issue that it causes war whenever it goes. When Burma went to wars against the Siamese and Chinese, both Siam and China made effective use of those ethnic dissents to some extent although never enough to challenge the Burmese, until the British maximised these ethnic tensions to the fullest.

[@dunnowy123]

I am genuinely curious how China will handle this. The situation is so chaotic that I can't imagine Beijing would just sit idly by and allow the country to devolve into complete chaos right on their border. Yet, it's also obvious they don't LOVE the junta, because they have absolutely no legitimacy and seem on the verge of collapse. They don't want to bet on the losing side, but don't want a new democracy emerging either. This seems like one of those situations where they will be forced to intervene militarily.

[@Zacharoni4085]

Maybe they will sponsor a CPC-friendly general or politician.

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Thanks. Excellent point. China’s decision to support the alliance, at least for now, is an interesting and important development - especially given the unexpected reasons behind it!

[@TheViettan28]

I guess China wants a stable open Myanmar to build the Rail and Road, giving it access to the India ocean. So that's why they support the resistance to dethrone the military gov at the moment.

[@dunnowy123]

I can see that; work within the existing military junta but promise something different (even if it isn't true)@@Zacharoni4085

[@theotherohlourdespadua1131]

​@@Zacharoni4085Or do what they did with Afghanistan: back the winning horse. Junta or Alliance, they all gonna be kissing Beijing toenails for investment and security...

[@raysunlimited]

As the son of a Karen woman, I thank you for covering this with much attention and care. My families been displaced for decades and no longer inhabit our ancestral homes because of our civil war with the Burmese regime. I still hold out hope that one day I can return with my mother. This sort of news gives me slight hope this can still happen before it’s too late.

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Thank you so much for the comment. I am so sorry to hear about your family’s tragic situation. The Karen have been forgotten by the outside world. But I remember my father talking to me about them many decades ago. (He grew up in Malaysia and his father - my grandfather - had been in Burma in the war.) I do so hope that the military regime can be beaten and that the country can find a new way for itself. It looks so beautiful.

[@Jer20.9]

My perception is that the suffering of the Karen and other Christian groups is not given coverage in the media, in contrast to the Muslim Rohinga. Would you please comment on this?

[@Fx_Explains]

Karen??? 😅

[@thatGuy-wm2cr]

@@Fx_Explains its a province

[@TheBucketSkill]

@@Fx_Explains jesus man you really are a gamer

[@frederickdas6706]

Always pray for Myanmar people who are in hard time under the boots of Junta. 💪🙏

[@heinzaballoo3278]

This lines up well with what I've read from Richard Horsey and the IISS. One of the most depressing things about this war is how bleak the outlook is. There's no clear endgame, the rebels are fragmented, and although they will advance, it's unlikely that the junta collapses any time soon. Meanwhile, the international community is doing little to nothing, even as lives are lost.

[@hughjass1044]

What would you have the international community do? Who are the good guys in this situation? Which side would you support and why? The reason the international community is not doing anything is because there is nothing they can do. In a multi-sided civil war, any outside intervention by nationals who know nothing of the history, culture and complexity of the region much less, have even the faintest clue of what a post conflict society would look like and who would recognize and support it, would be the height of insanity. The United Nations used to engage in a certain little charade of multi-national virtue signaling they facetiously called "peace keeping" as if there is any peace to be kept among warring factions by disinterested westerners. If you're wondering why they don't do much of that anymore, it's because it's been shown to be a colossal waste of resources and it doesn't work! No one's strategic interests or national security is being threatened. It's none of our business so stay out of it.

[@blackwatertv7018]

This conflict ultimately has been going on for almost 80 years. What do you want the international community to do exactly?

[@RetiredFormerToddler]

@@hughjass1044which side ? Are U serious about this ? What a stupid question. People fighting for democracy bcuz military take over bcuz of their greedy. Now U r here confused about who is the bad guys.

[@hughjass1044]

You didn't even watch the video, did you?@@RetiredFormerToddler

[@applesyrupgaming]

​@@RetiredFormerToddlerdo you want another libya moment

[@peterkops6431]

So awesome that you have had time to start producing your on-line courses for the common man regularly again. Thanks Prof 👍🏻👍🏻🇦🇺

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Thank you so much, Peter. It has been an extremely busy year at my end. But really great to be back into making the videos after an extended break in the summer. I hope all is well at your end.

[@markaxworthy2508]

The disparate rebels have been driving Burmese units from their home areas, where the population is sympathetic. However, they have not really penetrated the more densely populated Burmese areas. The difficult bit is yet to come unless ethnic Burmese opposition undermines the government from within.

[@yellowluma101]

Wish the best for the people of Myanmar 🇲🇲❤

[@matheo4934]

they are very admirable people. started a revoultion with the support of the people of Myanmar and they are winning now. hope they rebuild the country successfully. may god bless brothers and sisters from PDFs, EAOs and NUG.

[@davidbowie5023]

There is a common comparison recently that Myanmar is the Asian DR Congo. Myanmar endured eras after eras of autocratic rule, ruthless kingship, warring regimes and feudalism in their country; plus Myanmar is extremely rich in natural resources with diverse population but the people are so impoverished and lack basis infrastructure. I guess this comparison is not wrong at all, if you watch some documentaries about just how poor DR Congo is, Myanmar is basically the same story.

[@notundermywatch3163]

I think you may have missed the fact that DRC is arguably one of the richest countries in the world in natural ressources.

[@zinny999]

@@notundermywatch3163 seems like they are, I think Burma just have gas and some jewelleries and precious stones.

[@notundermywatch3163]

@@zinny999 yes Myanmar has some gas and gems, DRC has some of the largest rare earth deposits on the planet among other things. Coincidentally I have worked in both countries, DRC and Myanmar, know them quite well and I find it to be an odd comparison by the OP.

[@nou8953]

@@notundermywatch3163 you are aware that myanmar is also a huge reserve of certain rare earth ores, which is a large reason behind china's involvement there? China actually outsources enormous amounts of mining and refining to the bordering regions because of this and the laxer regulations. Both countries suffer from the common paradox of natural resource richness leading to instability, share similar resources even with logging and mining.

[@notundermywatch3163]

@@nou8953 yes I'm aware, I worked in Myanmar and DRC. I was in Myanmar last year and in DRC 3 years ago. Complex places.

[@prikitimyan]

THANK YOU, Prof. Kerr. To me, an old man, born in 1937, your narrative about our Myanmar- Bamar history is very suscent. I lived through it. Though I left Burma in December 1979, becoming an Australian citizen on JUNE 1994, I still love and belong to Myanmar. Burma-Myanmar is my country of birth and belonging always, and will die with its spirit of survival. The so-called REBELs since we gained INDEPENDENCE from the British tried( starting with the Karen ethnic group) but failed. Myanmar maybe might be disintegrated as a political entity but it will always be a Bamar-Myanmar Nation State. To me, the various GODs are there but GOD and its prophets ( Jesus, Allah) to Judeo-Christian beliefs and values is the only CREATOR.

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Thank you so much for the comment. It must have been very sad to watch what has happened to your country over all those years. Let's hope that it can eventually find peace.

[@yashsingh5563]

@@JamesKerLindsay Slight cultural thing, but Myanmar's military government has effectively equated rebels to thugs, and so you'll get push back calling rebels rebels even if this connotation wasn't intended/doesn't exist much in the West

[@zinny999]

Hey great to see another Burmese on here. I left much much later 😂.1988 when there was another large turmoil.

[@chongtak]

I wish the Mons, Shans, Karens, Lahus, Was, and other oppressed ethnic groups can get their independance eventually. There is no reason they keep being enslaved by the Bamars.

[@Orgruul]

One of the biggest omissions I've seen from western intellectuals when regarding the Myanmar/Burma conflict is the British method of divide and conquer rule; subjugate the majority Bamar while giving favorable positions for the minorities, because they are too few to revolt against imperial rule, which greatly divided the majority Burmese and the minority ethnic peoples and led to animosity to this very day. Sure, the Myanmar military dictators didn't help ease ethnic race relations at all, but its scholarly disingenuous to omit one of the main driving factors as to why there was been revolution, insurgency and insurrection since Burma's independence in 1948.

[@dannydanny865]

Does this also choose to ignore the attempted subjugation of these ethnic groups by the Burmese before colonial rule? You are acting as if these ethnic groups were not already in a state of division pre-colonial rule. Not mentioned in this video as well was the targeted attack of ethnic minorities by the Burmese during Japanese occupation. They were all not one united front, they were just never united in the first place, take your notion of noble savages and put it in the bin will you? As a guy part of an ethnic minority group myself I am sick and tired of people chalking up the whole conflict to colonial rule, there was already conflict pre-colonial rule. The British, French, German whatever boogeyman you blame is not responsible for these groups taking arm. We have agency in our decision making and are not controlled by some ambiguous colonial power, stop treating us like children who don’t know any better. We are not robots who have been programmed to seek self-determination because of colonial programming, we are a people who have free thought and can look at matters intellectually.

[@NurseVic-sy5nd]

You made an excellent point.. Burman/Burmese had never been on good terms with the Anglo West ever since way back in the Anglo British Colonial era. As a result, Burma became a punching bag for the West to this day.. For more, pls read the informative and insightful, multi-page comments by 'Ms. Gregoria' at, "Myanmar remains in social and economic crisis since military seized power/BBC News" on KZbin. May I wish peace and prosperity to Myanmar people! 🙏

[@knowledgeispower8625]

@@NurseVic-sy5nd "Burma/Myanmar: From Anglo Western Colonialism to Anglo Western boycott & sanction to Anglo Western sponsored civil war.. It never ends." 😔 Just to let you know that I read the informative multi-page comments by 'Ms. Gregoria' at, "Myanmar remains in social and economic crisis since military seized power/BBC News"., and learnt a whole lot more about Myanmar than I've ever known. Thanks! 🙏🏻

[@knowledgeispower8625]

@@NurseVic-sy5nd In my humble opinion, it's about time for peace and prosperity for long suffering people of Myanmar, about time so. By the way, many thanks for the insightful multi-page comments by 'Ms. Gregoria' at, "Myanmar remains in social and economic crisis since military seized power/BBC News".. Highly appreciated.

[@silverhawkscape2677]

​@@dannydanny865It won't matter. They are inflicted with severe slef hatred for the West. They would rather see the Civilization that gifted the World Penicillin collapse before they admit to anything you say.

[@台独的老父亲]

I am Chinese and currently in China. So far, there are only rumors online that the Chinese government supports Han armed groups in northern regions. However, this war has been ongoing and there are many rumors. At present, it cannot be proven that the Chinese government was involved in this conflict. The local military government issued a notice stating that the military conflict was a rebellion by ethnic minority armed groups, intending to hype up and show outsiders the support of northern countries. However, it is undeniable that ethnic minority armed forces have recruited individual retired soldiers from the People's Liberation Army within China due to their similar backgrounds. The Chinese government strictly prohibits veterans from going abroad to participate in war. They have been sentenced for leaving the country without authorization, but they cannot be prevented. The People's Liberation Army Navy of China held naval exercises with the Burmese military government two days ago. The Chinese government does not interfere in the internal affairs of other countries

[@insimplicity]

What is needed here is a story, not the truth.😅

[@wenderis]

yup..this is largely right. China mainly support the Wa National Army but also the Junta. But lately things change. It seems the Yunnan provincial gov and Beijing slightly differs in preferention. Now it seems that Beijing is trying to be more careful and distrust both for different reasons. It could be a window of opportunity if ASEAN lobbied the UN SC for an arms embargo just like when ASEAN lobbied for the condemnation of the Junta in the UN GA.

[@ronbeaubien]

I spent the end of 2019 and beginning of 2020 in Myanmar with my son. The country has such a fascinating history, culture, and we met so many kind people. I wish that all of the Burmese people, no matter their ethnic origin, can live together in peace, equality, and be free to choose their leaders.

[@mavinwiz]

That was the best breakdown I've seen of Burma online. Thanks so much for such a comprehensive explanation with historical context. 🙏

[@54032Zepol]

Thank you professor james this ongoing confiict has been underreported whereas the yemen, syrian and Libyan civil wars maintain prominent headlines in the mainstream media. The crazy part is that the beginning of the civil war was captured live by a livestreamer as we heavy black unmarked SUVs in caravan drive past the streamer as she does her yoga stretches.

[@mellowInventor]

That was one of the strangest videos of 2020.

[@pyaehtetaung]

Thank you for covering about Myanmar. I lived in Yangon. I hope revolution will win soon. For the future.

[@profesor1992able]

Professor Ker-Lindsay, your presentation was both enlightening and informative. Thanks immensely for such an important job that you are dong!

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Hello Albert, thanks so much! Always appreciated. I hope all is well at your end.

[@belstar1128]

my dad travelled in south east asia since 1989 and visited burma a bunch of times in the 90s and 2000s. he said most of the countries had improved a lot between 1989 and 2007. but 2007 was the last time he went to Burma since its too dangerous for a old man like him and you need to be in shape to handle traveling there as a foreigner since they don't have great health care and you need to walk a lot. but he still travels in other parts of south east Asia like Laos and Vietnam and is now mostly focussed on Cambodia. and he says it has become very peaceful and may even become a first world country in the near future. but Burma had not improved much between the 80s and 2007 according to him at least .the last time he was there he also said he was chased by secret agents in 2007. i know they had a democratic period for 10 years between 2011 and 2021 but the army was out of control and did a coup .and even in the democratic period the wars continued. i guess the only hope is to disband the army and rebuild it and split off the non Burmese speaking regions with a population of over 1 million into their own countries . even in democracy these people will want independence

[@Urlocallordandsavior]

As someone who's parents are Thai, I'm pretty jealous of Cambodia. Phnom Penh looks closer to your typical American SF city layout than the sprawling yet beautiful mess that is Bangkok.

[@belstar1128]

@@Urlocallordandsavior really ? i have not been there in a long time but Bangkok used to be way more advanced than any other place in the region .when i went to bangkok in the early 2000s it was rough but you had modern things like video games. phnom penh looked like 1930 back then not a single video game or computer in the entire country. even tvs were rare

[@zinny999]

TBH, I'm not Herr trying to flex muscle or anything. But not sure if your dad really know the Full History of Myanmar. We were once on par with HK and SG in terms of development. Right around the 60s. First ASEAN country to have major bridges and infrastructure projects well above all its neighbours. In saying that. Just like any countries you have witness... is the People of the nations that make it successful. So in times if proper government is in charge. They would easily surpass all their neighbours.

[@belstar1128]

@@zinny999 yea but that was a very long time ago. and let's be honest it was more of a a case of most Asian countries being very poor back then. and Burma falling behind and having bad luck. Cambodia had a leader that went out of his way to ruin the country. but now they are rebuilding everything and they are able to do that because there is finally peace. in Burma they couldn't fix their old issues. since the rebels are too strong to be defeated but not strong enough to win the war. so they just keep fighting forever. and in Burma the army became the government. since it's in an endless state of war and they won't give up their power. but the army is not good at running a country. They only know how to fight.

[@mondude89]

Dude no one wants to split off and become their own country. People do want more autonomy over the area they control.

[@marcocolo7151]

Thank you for providing us with such quality video every week

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Hello Marco. I am so sorry I didn't respond to this earlier. I only just saw the message. Thank you so much for the generous SuperThanks. That is incredibly kind of you. It is my real pleasure to make the videos, and your support has been brilliant throughout. In fact, I think that you were one of the very first channel members! I hope that all is well with you. Have a wonderful time over the holidays. Very best wishes, James

[@migo-migo9503]

Like all civil wars, my fear is that once the junta is overtaken, the rebels will fight amongst themselves to find out who takes control. Hopefully that does not happen, I hope they find a peaceful resolution amongst themselves and finally be able to organize a nation that they can live in with some autonomy.

[@dochi1958]

There isn't ANY ethnic group strong enough to take full control, just their own enclaves.

[@Melcor2304]

If they’re realistic enough, they should just get equal rights for all the people living in their borders, and grant them citizenship.

[@nzho013]

@@Melcor2304 Would not work at all. Because barmar has over 55% percent of population meaning Minorities has no interest of working with the government unless they get disproportionate recognition or self governing rights. Especially since they are the ones doing heavy lifting in the fights.

[@calvinblue894]

It will be split up . Wa and Shan state are Communist...

[@Melcor2304]

@@nzho013 even if they're doing the heavy lifting, they have no standing in the modern world, and they're too exhausted after the whole struggle to continue struggling again. It is much better to get equal rights and representation in the Myanmar government instead.

[@smitheasydog7401]

this is a in-depth report which differs than typical western medias who dreams to think overflowing the military government would bring long lasting peace and democracy to Myanmar. Well, Junta's force may be defeated (small possibility), but Myanmar would not see peace any time soon as majority Burma and minority groups have very different goals and the gap is huge. PS: the minority military groups make gain, but mainly in the remote and minority areas, i believe they start to stretch too thin, lose momentum, and face resistance once they march into provinces on flat land.

[@七月-x8q]

yes, the myanmar support junta more than ethnic people, this is why junta exists in so long time

[@danielc9967]

I do not think its a “small possibility” Eventually the military would fall, in rebel forces often have an advantage in morale and support from the populace, this is almost impossible to stomp out.

[@dochi1958]

Majority of the Burma ethnic group does NOT support the junta. And those cracks in their own military are now starting to show.

[@ssmaw123]

Please do not call rebels of Burma. Call them People's Defence Force. Very meaningful.

[@KanKawgyi-kf1yc]

Foreign entities do NOT know what is really going on inside our country for multiple reasons. Not long ago CNA uses the term military "Government"; now this guy uses "Rebel". Let them be. Myanmar fight for our own freedom. And we will concur all of them soon show them what Myanmar is capable.

[@nyizaw8335]

Rebel comes from Rebellion. It was the Burmese military education and propaganda that they made the meaning of "Rebel" sounds like "Bandits"

[@globaljinn]

rebels ရဲ့ အဓိပ္ပါယ်ကို သူပုန်ဆိုပြီး အဓိပ္ပါယ်တစ်မျိုးတည်းသင်တာ မြန်မာအစိုးရကျောင်း‌ပဲ။ တကယ်တမ်း ဒီစာလုံး‌က အဲ့ဒီလောက်ကြီး မရင့်သီးပါဘူး။ "တော်လှန်ပုန်ကန်သူများ"လို့လည်း အဓိပ္ပါယ် ရပါတယ်။ militants လို့ သုံးနှုန်းမှသာ ရင့်သီးတယ်လို့ ဆိုနိုင်မယ်။ အဲ့လောက်ကြီးလည်း ဆတ်ဆတ်ထိမခံ မဖြစ်ပါနဲ့။ နားလည်မှုလွဲနေတယ် ထင်ပါတယ်။ ငါ ဒီဟာ လိုက်ပြောနေရတာလည်း မောလှပြီ နင်တို့လည်း အခုသိရင် ပြန်ဝေမျှပေးကြပါလား။ ဒီအသုံးအနှုန်းနဲ့ပက်သက်ရင် အမေရိကရောက်နေတဲ့ လူတချို့တောင် အထင်လွဲတာတွေ ဖြစ်နေကြတုန်းပဲ။ သူတို့တွေ အားလုံးနီးပါး ဘာလို့ rebelsဆိုတာချည်း သုံးနှုန်းနေကြတာလဲ။ အဲ့လိုများ မစဉ်းစားမိဘူးလား။ rebelsဆိုတာ စကစကျောင်းတွေမှာ သင်ခဲ့သလို သူပုန်ဆိုတဲ့ အဓိပ္ပါယ်တစ်ခုတည်းပဲလား။ တခြားပော ဘယ်လို သဘောရလဲ။ မစဉ်းစားမိဘူးလား။ ကျေးဇူးပြု၍ ခေါင်းကြီးကို ပိတ်မထားပါနဲ့။ ဒီလို မန့်မျိုးတွေက မြန်မာတွေ ပိန်းကြောင်း လိုက်ပြနေသလိုပဲ။ တခြား videoတွေအောက်မှာဆိုရင် တခြားလူမျိုးတွေက ဝိုင်းပြီးတော့ ပြန်ပြောထားတာဆို ရှက်ဖို့တောင် ကောင်းတယ်။ စောက်ကျောင်းတွေကလည်း “ rebel = သူပုန် ”ဆိုပြီး ခေါင်းဆေးလိုက်တာ တော်တော်ကို အောင်မြင်တယ်လို့တောင် ပြောလို့ရတယ်။

[@RykkerNighteyes]

Rebels is star wars are the good guys. He's using the word rebels here liked in star wars.

[@KanKawgyi-kf1yc]

"RESISTANCE" the ability not to be affected by something, especially adversely. "DEFENSE" the action of defending from or resisting attack. "REBEL" rise in opposition or armed resistance to an established government or leader. ဒီနေရာမှာ တိုင်းတပါးက ပုဂ္ဂိုလ်အနေနဲ့ စကစကို အစိုးရတရပ်အနေ နဲ့ယူဆပြီး ပုန်ကန်တော်လှန်သူ REBEL လို့ သုံးတာဖြစ်ပါတယ်၊ ကျွန်တော်တို့ တော်လှန်နေတာဟာ အစိုးရကို မဟုတ်ပါဘူး၊ စကားလုံးရွေးတာမှန်ဖို့အတွက်ပါ၊ Culturally မကြိုက်ကြတဲ့အချို့စကားတွေကို ရှောင်သုံးရပါတယ်၊ အခုတော်လှန်ရေးဟာ RESISTANCE or DEFENSE စသည် အသုံးအနုန်းများဖြင့် ပို သင့်မြတ်ပါတယ်၊ ဥပမာ မြန်မာလိုပြောရရင် ၂၀၂၁ အရေးအခင်းလား အရေးတော်ပုံလား? အဓိပ္ပါယ် တူပေးမယ် စခဘက်က ပထမစကားလုံးကိုသုံးတယ် တော်လှန်ဘက်တော်သားတွေက ဒုတိယကိုသုံးတယ် အကြောင်းရင်းရှိပါတယ်၊

[@chaiya1236]

Part of the Shan states where some of the people defense forces came from used to be part of an old kingdom called "Lanna". The capital of Lanna used to be Chiang Mai/Chiang Rai and both are located in Thailand. During the invasion of the Britians, the Lanna kingdom was a part of kingdom of Siam (Thailand, nowdays). When the Britians occupied Konbaung dynasty's land (House of Konbuang was the last royal dynasty of old burma), they spreaded out and captured Kengtung, which was a major city of the Lanna kingdom. Later they signed a contract with Siam to surrender some part of Siam's Lanna to the British's Burma, and that was pretty much when the Lanna kingdom was split in half. The people that lives in Lanna are Tai-yai, Mong, Karen, Khamti, Mon etc, etc. I currently live in Thailand and my familyn were descended from Mon people, my ancestors were citizens of old Lanna. I believe that the way that the British drawn the border lines without any regards of ethnicities living in the area did mess up a lot of things, like splitting Lanna in half.

[@IC3XR]

I love channels who cover conflicts with an unbiased outlook. Subrscribed.

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Thank you so much. I really appreciate it. I do try to cover things fairly. (Although I do have strong views on the Ukraine war, but that’s because I see it as a systemic war, not a ‘normal’ conflict.) In any case, a warm welcome to the channel! :-)

[@IC3XR]

@@JamesKerLindsay no need to thank me, thank *you* for the fantastic content. I too take a strong stance on the Ukraine war, so I do not blame you - imo, Putin's war is a ridiculous, needless, and disgusting waste of human life. I'll be sure to check out you're Ukraine content!

[@MrMordechaiAnilevich]

I'm in my 60s now. My University never had a Professor like JKL. Never. He makes me want to go back to University. Let's hope the people of Myanmar can form a workable federation.

[@SaiKyaw-x4r]

Just like the video has said, there are too many armed groups with different ideologies and goals and they have clashed with each other quite a lot. So Myanmar can only hope for a Confederacy at best.

[@wenderis]

Hi Prof, as this is an ongoing conflict, it would be great to include some of your analysis into the conflict especially concerning the external powers (China, Russia, UN, ASEAN), the plight of the Rohingyas, human trafficking, and scam businesses. IMO, these four are integral to understanding and foreseeing the near-future peace (finger crossed) in Myanmar. I know that there is an official office especially for Myanmar in ASEAN HQ in Jakarta. The role of ASEAN cannot be understated. Looking it from this scope would also be beneficial.

[@spr1t3ly]

Thanks for the insight! As a Viet, there are barely any news outlets reporting this very slept on conflict.

[@just_hexxy]

Thank you for doing a video about Myanmar when so many others have chosen to look away.

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Thank you so much. It really should be getting more attention than it is. And the situation should be understood more far more accurately and fully than it is!

[@Sidicas]

Never forget the Angel 😇 of Myanmar. Everything will be ok ✌️

[@NikolaHD]

As always great video James! I almost forgot about Burma. This is actually huge. Do you think that this can change the military structure and prevent future coups?

[@bandieong8581]

Amazing attention to detail ! As a history student, I would also have added that leadership under U Nu ( a weak leader that succeeded Aung San ) also created the necessary conditions for the rise of the military coup.

[@mk-ki4ls]

Everytime I hear the name U Nu all I can think about is the time he made Buddhism the state religion and pissed off certain ethnic groups instead of focusing on more important things like, you know, the state of the country and unruly military.

[@florianmaier104]

Very nice sum up of the situation. I hope there will be follow-ups. Just a little corrigendum: The wa are not "Chinese speaking", they speak "Wa" (eventhough Chinese is in widespread use in education and government). The Guogang/Kokang are Chinese-speaking - or well just Chinese (Han).

[@bumblingbureaucrat6110]

I thought that Wa was a Chinese "Dialect" like Cantonese. Is it not in the Sino-Tibetan language family?

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Thanks a lot. Great point. Wa is a separate language from Chinese, but many Wa apparently speak Chinese as their second language. It all rather underscores the complex ethnic and religious picture in the country.

[@七月-x8q]

@@bumblingbureaucrat6110 Wa is Sina-tibeten language.But they split in thousands year ago with chinese language.

[@七月-x8q]

@@JamesKerLindsay Wa people had the protocal with Zhugeliang about safeguard the Han dynasty border in three kingdom time 1700 years ago.The protocal was so long ago I doubt about the truth.But the wa people believe it.Considering Zhugeliang was so famous in china and respectful, The wa people and han chinese are hard to broken their close conncections

[@florianmaier104]

@@bumblingbureaucrat6110 no, not at all it is an Austroasiatic language, so more a far cousin of Vietnamese.

[@stoopidapples1596]

I have a friend in Burma that I'm constantly terrified for. She returns there every 6 months and I'm just dreading the day when she doesn't come back.

[@scottodhonnchu5034]

Hi James, I couldn't help but think when watching this video of the previous videos you did on Ethiopia and how many ethnic militias helped overthrow the Derg. Do you see a similarity and do you think any of these ethnic groups could get independence like Eritrea? Or was that unique given Eritrea's former status as an Italian colony? And you you think an ethnic Federation is possible?

[@Trolligi]

An ethnic federation seems to be what most of the ethnic groups are fighting for

[@SaiKyaw-x4r]

​​@@Trolligi and the comment above. Hi, I'm an ethnic group of Myanmar that frequently delves into the political scene and there are actually a lot of ethnic separatist comments especially those who live in less Burmese dominated regions. Separatist movements had always existed before the independence but lately have resurged most likely due to intense war in their states and ethnic armed groups are growing in power and influence. However becoming an internationally recognized nation is more complicated than just successfully kicking the enemy forces out so it will not likely happen soon. But if the military does fall, I doubt any ethnic armed groups will reluctantly hand over their power to a new central government either so maybe a confederation rather than a federation is a more reasonable speculation. Hope my explanation helps.

[@scottodhonnchu5034]

​@@SaiKyaw-x4rHi, so would you say we'd end up with an Iraqi Kurdistan type situation, where you effectively run yourself and don't push for further recognition. I have one question about that if you don't mind, assuming that the new government would be more favourable towards ethnic minorities than the previous regime, how long do you think this would last until they wished to fully REincorporate the region, or could we see the merging of army divisions into a new national army like in Bosnia or Nepal?

[@SaiKyaw-x4r]

@@scottodhonnchu5034 Hi, I don't know much about the Iraqi Kurdistan type situation but from your description, yes. In fact, we already have special regions such as Laukkaing, Pangshang & Mongla where they have full autonomy which the central government has no control over. And you can say many other ethnic armed groups are aiming to take over and obtain similar status as well. Though can you maybe elaborate more on the last part "How long do you think this would last until they wish to fully Reincorporate the region"? Thanks.

[@alexpetrov6079]

​@@SaiKyaw-x4rI think that by talking about the "reincorporation" commentator meant the situation when the new post-junta central government will try to lessen the autonomy of ethnicities. Like at first It would be cool and good and than they will go junta style. That is how I understood that. Also, I too have question to you. Do you think that it may be good for all non-bamar ethnicities to get independent country? And what ethnicity do you belong to?(the second question is personal, so if you don't want to answer it is ok).

[@ASH9366]

That's why i love, watch & admire independent Journalism. Thank you Professor 🙏

[@agentak7193]

Thank you for spreading awareness of the situation in myanmar. The junta happened before the invasion of ukaraine yet during the worst times in myanmar, there was barely any recognition.

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Thanks. Yes, sadly it completely dropped off the international news.

[@terranceaddison4599]

Well put video. You always bring clarity to the bigger picture.

[@mrfifa4444]

It would be great if you could possibly do your next video on the current situation between GUYANA and VENEZUELA !

[@JamesKerLindsay]

On it. Currently writing the script! :-)

[@maurice7618]

I do like videos about geopolitics, but never heard of your channel. After seeing this video, I immediately subscribed. Well done.

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Thank you so much! And a very warm welcome to the channel! :-)

[@WilmingtonLandlord]

A pretty good introduction, but it seems to overlook the role of the Chinese. As early as the 13th century, when the Chinese were defeated by northern Mongolians, they fled to the northern Myanmar mountains. The Burmese have never controlled the northern region. However, British colonists were too strong to resist. They forced the Chinese government to draw the boundaries between China and Burma. When the British granted Burma independence, the Burmese government did not even grant minorities citizenship. Burma treated them as illegal immigrants, expelled Rohingya people to Bangladesh, and Chinese to China. Things worsened when the Nationalist government of China was defeated by communists in 1949; they fled to northern Burma and were militarily stronger than the Burmese government. After that, communist China took control of northern Burma. Since then, it has been impossible for any Myanmar government, whether Junta or democratic, to defeat the rebels. Even today, the Myanmar Junta has to obey China. But China is still not happy with the Junta; that's the reason China launched the 1027 operation. The near future of Myanmar entirely depends on the Chinese government or how the Myanmar Junta meets China's demands.

[@WilmingtonLandlord]

When the British occupied Burma, they presented Burma and surrounding regions as a gift to the Queen of UK. Upon their departure, the British granted the Burmese twice the amount of land and included half of people who were not Burmese. It may sound like the British created a powerful Burma, but in reality, it led to endless disasters for the country. People are not commodities, like horses and cows, to be given away; they resist. Especially when the main ethnic group of Burma, the Burmese, has a lower per capita GDP than most ethnic minorities and also is militarily weaker than these minorities. In such a situation, ethnic minorities are unlikely to willingly serve the Burmese as if they were horses and dogs. The internal conflict in Burma is inevitable. Since there are hundreds of minorities in Myanmar, none of those are big enough to overthrow the Burmese government either.

[@charleslatourelle8207]

Great video! Thank you for explaining things so well!

[@bumblingbureaucrat6110]

I hope that the Rebel Alliance manages to defeat the Army and create a federal system like they promised. But I have serious doubts that even if the N.U.G/P.D.F wins the war that they will keep their promises to restructure the government and grant Autonomy

[@SaiKyaw-x4r]

There's also the huge problem of various EAO groups that are competing/conflicting against each other. Which people should discuss about more imo.

[@dabo5078]

Nah they will turn against each other. The PRC would also not let the Myanmar government collapse.

[@dylanlow4871]

Things will be mostly fine if a federal system can be established. An important factor is also the relative strength disparity between the EAOs and the PDFs of the NUG. The EAOs are much stronger militarily than the NUG, which only began building military wings after the 2021 coup whereas EAOs have decades of military experience. The PDFs are in fact mostly trained and equipped by the EAOs, so the NUG can't really afford to piss them off. After the defeat of the junta, it's likely that EAOs will have a big say in the the reorganisation of the nation. Obviously that will not be easy and might get contentious, but at least anything is better than dealing with the SAC junta.

[@zvonkobogdan9634]

I dont want terorists and NATO's insurgent wins. They've won in Lybia, Afganistan, almost won in Syria... We've seen what they bring. They only bring chaos and anarchy. World doesn't need another "freedom fighers" take over the country

[@filipkotowski9186]

I had no idea you made videos. Im an IR student and I referenced your work on Serbia and Kosovo in my papers. So weird to see someone from IR you reference on youtube! Good video

[@hanfucolorful9656]

From this video we know how important it is these days to learn Chinese, because this is the only language whereby you can get the first hand information about what is going on in Myanmar.

[@kennethlalbiakthanga]

As a person that lives in Yangon, it may not seem like it, but the war is far from over. Sure, some northern and southern parts of Myanmar have been liberated by the EAOs and militias, but that doesn't necessarily mean we've won. To win, the opposition must strike into the Bamar heartland - key cities like Yangon, Nay Pyi Daw, Mandalay, Pyin Oo Lwin. The Tatmadaw cannot be underestimated either, as they will do what it it takes to achieve victory and by any means necessary. Victory isn't on the horizon, but that doesn't mean it's impossible. The resistance has one thing the junta doesn't: morale.

[@RuB0t]

I was there in 2010 right before the election, so many locals were so grateful to see some foreigners there as (to quote one) "it shows that at least some in the west have not forgotten about us"

[@sf2998]

History tells us that complex civil-proxy wars don't end quickly. Even if this war ends tomorrow or next week, can the winning side hold the country together with a multi-party democratic system or will the territories be redefined or new countries formed under a democratic regime?

[@rpgbb]

Can you make a video about the situation between Venezuela and Guyana?

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Thanks. Great suggestion. I hope to cover this next week.

[@podcastler]

Respect for the people of Myanmar Muslims, communists, Buddhists and other groups united against brutal dictatorship

[@kcsotu79]

Our civilian we will be win 🏆 🎉 because the most civil people 95% are supporting the ethnic army groups and PDF’s . We will be winning winning winning winning winning winning winning winning 🎉 Democracy are very expensive for our Myanmar peoples 😢

[@corpo_ethereal2744]

This was very well-articulated, thank you for making this.

[@tyronejoshua1613]

I just bought Professor KerLindsay's book Secession and State Creation: What Everyone Needs to Know I'm really looking forward to reading it

[@channelthegijoeshow]

Succinctly captured such a complex topic. Here, take my subscription 😊

[@angelotimonera7967]

All the people must unite and set aside all ethnic and minority communities to achieve freedom. We did that in the Philippines that made "THE PEOPLE POWER MOVEMENT" to topple down the 20 year rule of a dictator. We united no matter what religion, civil status, rich or poor and we bound to reach our goal for democracy. BURMA can do it!

[@VTh-f5x]

Yes that is why your military had to seige mindanao. Because people were united. 😂😂

[@HWDragonborn]

It boggles my mind why the war in Myanmar got very little media attention compared to the wars in Ukraine and Palestine.

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Thanks. You are right. I guess because it feels so far from Europe and North America. But you would imagine that Asian countries would be making more of it.

[@shamanicdude8605]

Thailand,India and even China have been affected by our civil war,we're far removed from the Western politics but kinda central in SEAsia.I don't blame anyone for not knowing more about our situation and that's why I appreciate people like Prof. James shedding light on it.However,I feel like change is coming soon,wish us luck.

[@Trolligi]

small correction: the Wa speak Wa, an austroasiatic language (distantly related to Vietnamese and Khmer) Also, do you think Wa State (a Chinese-backed de facto socialist state occupying the Wa lands in northern Shan state) will act in any way to the current situation of the rebels gaining more ground? (Haven’t watched the whole vid yet so you may have answered this already)

[@SaiKyaw-x4r]

Nope, the reason is because the UWSA has never engaged in any form of conflict with Myanmar's military(correct me if I'm wrong). They have signed a ceasefire agreement and is the "Neutral and Watch" type of organization that won't ever get involved unless their lands are attacked. Hope my explanation helps

[@_Forsaker]

No,ThEy speak both chinese and wa，and they write in Chinese.

[@kohtet34161]

Wa are little old people like Vietnamese. I mean old Vietnamese people. China's influence on Wa is huge.

[@dionysiospomonis4808]

🌅Τhanks for the good information and for your clear english speaking☀️

[@ChiekoGamers]

Thanks to the British for all the conflicts in the Middle East and Asia

[@drmodestoesq]

You think the British should have never given Burma independence?

[@jonesyjones7626]

So there were no empires before the British, there was no war and no ethnic tension? Your statement is simplistic, ignores the rest of history and just looks to place blame on someone convenient.

[@andytomhall6006]

One word: brilliant! Thank you Professor you are a great teacher and lecturer. It's a shame about Burma and I wonder if they will ever find peace. As a nation and people they have so much to offer the world which would benefit the world but more importantly the Burnese people themselves. Maybe it's time for that ineffectual organisation the UN to sort out the differences and keep the peace whilst the country rebuilds itself.

[@canarassavas]

I got to know this country with 15 kyats note in my collection. This is really interesting.

[@aungpaing]

the junta generals are all overwhelmingly superstitious. We had 25, 75 bank notes which were later declared no longer 'legal-tender'. That was one of the many causes for the 8/8/88 uprising. Then we have 15, 45 and 90 bank notes, which technically are still legal, but inflations made them non-relevant anymore. back to the topic of the ground situation in myanmar, i may be optimistic, but many of us here believe, we can achieve long lasting peace only after removing the army from politics, as it's been proven to be the biggest obstacle in achieving the peace. years of mis-trust between the majority burmans and the ethnics have to be slowly healed, but it can only be done after the military is defeated. of course, we don't expect the road ahead to be a smooth ride even after the military is ousted, but it's a one bumpy road leading to the path of peaceful coexistence.

[@EcclesiastesLiker-py5ts]

I love your clear eyed, reasonable coverage of these things.

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Thanks so much for the extremely kind words of support. I really appreciate it!

[@ookachin7000]

I am a Burmese. Well presented, Prof. Thank you

[@ribos2762]

Is China backing the rebel?

[@donaldadielramirezavila3573]

Excellent video, got a new subscriber.

[@kyawkyawminn3081]

Some facts are not true. Is there any country which allows foreigners to sit in the parliament throughout the whole period and let them hear each and every word, confidential or not being discussed? That happened during NLD, pro-democracy government.

[@mcswordfish]

An interesting video, as always. I've known for a while that the political situation there was a mess, but had no idea just how complicated (and messy) it was. Could you weigh in on the country's name please? From what I can see, most name-changes seem to be accepted with minimal controversy (no-one deadnames the DRC as Zaire), or the change appears minimal, the old name sticks around out of laziness (eg Czechia), but Myanmar/Burma seems to be a lot more contentious. From what I've inferred from this video, it sounds like Myanmar is a less ethnocentric name than Burma, but it's also the name chosen by a dictatorship, rather than by a democratic process. Is this where the trouble lies, or is there more to it than that?

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Thanks Richard. Yes, it’s incredibly complicated. And most of the traditional coverage has focused on the democracy side of things, rather than the deep rooted ethnic conflicts. The name is an interesting point. From what I understand, Myanmar is the formal name of the country in everyday Burmese language. In that sense it just conforms with the name most people use in their own language. But the fact that it was introduced by the military has made it contentious. Also, it seems that ‘Burmese’ remains the official adjective, rather than ‘Myanmarese’. It’s interesting to see some of the comments on this.

[@Fatihbasz]

Can you add Turkish subtitles ?

[@peterloo3136]

Thank you for covering!!!

[@jandevry3985]

From a military perspective, the government (Tatmadaw) is very unlikely to lose against the rebels, because of the sheer differences in equipment, training and character of the soldiers. It can be compared to the Russo-Ukrainian War where it is also impossible for Russia to lose on spot. To Any Christians in Myanmar reading this: Understand that Jesus Christ loves you and is always with you and remember, you are not supposed to fight, take up arms or kill someone, for you shall not kill, my brother. Believe in the Saviour and you shall be saved by the grace of god. We believe you can make it

[@sH-ed5yf]

It absolutly cannot compared to ukraine. It is more like the vietnam war. A semingly supierior military fighting insurgences. The government is hated and the military elite corrupt.

[@barnettmcgowan8978]

This is the best explanation of the conflict I have heard. Great job!

[@yemannwaiphyo8817]

Myanmar is the Yugoslavia of Southeast Asia.

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Thanks. As someone who has focused on SE Europe during my career, I have to say that there are indeed some very interesting parallels with Yugoslavia that struck me as I was researching and writing this video.

[@noneyabizness7288]

Thank you for this. Is was very interesting. I was there shortly after the elections in 2015 and the mood was upbeat and hopeful. I found the people, at least in Yangon, to be incredibly friendly and kind. I was crushed to see the military take back control and will not visit again until the people once again have some say in their government.

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Thanks so much. It must have been an incredible experience to be there - especially at a time of such great hope.

[@sulatt21]

Thank you for summing up well of our country. It is so educational for myself as a Burmese. If I may add the root caused to the problem is our people are too naive and yet too kind. Of course this could also be the ultimate solution as without kindness there is no ending to any fight. I believe our different ethic brothers and sisters are also tired of fighting and can’t wait to start having a fair conversation while acknowledging our own lack of understanding to one another.

[@SaiKyaw-x4r]

Hello I'm Tai or Shan person and I'll add that I also hate the war especially with the state that my homeland is in. There's a lot of different armed groups with their own ideologies and goals so peace is not easy. I do hope all of us can create a fair Union that'll hopefully only make us fight on the internet and not irl.

[@naungshinntann2867]

They are not rebels. They are the people of Myanmar who have gone against Burmese junta and its armed forces. Inside our country, we call them resistances.

[@Mrlong55]

Iam from northeast, india... Sir plz don't say rebel... It's pro democracy victory

[@eskii2]

This is great and well delivered content. Subscribing

[@c0nconc0n18]

The Wa don't speak Chinese natively - they use it as their official language.

[@maungpawoo]

Great video! Thank you for explaining things so well! Wish the best for the people of Myanmar

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Thanks so much for the kind comment!

[@tigereye517]

Prof. JKL can you look into and explain how the British brought in people from Indian and Bangladesh to help rule over their colonized population. How this created division and resentment, discrimination, blame from the locals and the ruling authoritarians over the decades. How does this plays out in the present day Rohingya situation. 2nd what I learned from Poli Sci class, is that every country (China, Russia, the US, any of the SE Asian countries etc.) will act only in their own interest. Don’t expect anything else.

[@kohtet34161]

And most Bangali also came to Myanmar during Pakistan -Bangali war.

[@faridfedala2701]

Great and very informative report indeed - thank you!!

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Thank you so much. I really appreciate it.

[@zhvirus31700]

实话实说，缅甸的国土面积、位置、自然环境太完美了，有平原，有高山，有河流，有漫长的海岸线，扼守中东到东亚的交通要道，这么好的地盘为什么就不能发展为一个发达国家呢？实在太浪费这么好的地方了！要是缅甸是以色列、新加坡，或者日本，或者中国来治理，肯定能发展出GDP全球前10的高度发达国家，可惜了。

[@leo29136]

可惜了，就是如此的场地，只要还是自个人无能，才会导致变成群雄逐鹿的据点

[@yegyi1867]

你對緬甸了解很多 😁

[@KazimRichards-nm5ob]

Stability is key for an educated population

[@urunknown08]

如果你深入观察，由于非法赌场和边境非法交易矿产的演变而难以打击的比例并不小。腐败对一个国家来说太糟糕了

[@PlaYer-sn5or]

英国人留下的坑。

[@brendasmart553]

Thank you for these!

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Thank you very much!

[@hulamrasol8987]

Once the most prosperous in SEA

[@hedge1973]

Very good video. Thanks for sharing

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Thanks so much.

[@dkim2011]

Yet another cut-and-paste job masquerading as deep analysis. Unsubscribed.

[@mangoMango-ck3et]

great video,,,an education on Myanmars history of endless conflicts,,,..its certainly mindboggling how they will ever live in peace,with so many ethnic Groups,,,,should just call themselves One people ,,,,,Myanmarians,,,,of Myanmar...

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Thank you so much. It really is an interesting example of how to marry a dominant ethnic group with a multitude of others with a truly civic rather than national notion of citizenship. Interestingly, this seemed to be the intention at the start of the state.

[@generalvee2773]

The Bamars may be the largest group, but they aren't actually that large in reality. If census have to be taken correctly, they may be some 25 - 30%. In this map, the areas that are supposedly occupied by the Bamars, like the south east coastal west of Thailand, didn't speak much speak at all till about 20 years ago. The Karen occupied majority of the delta area, central Burma surrounding the current capital. The real Bamar occupied area is only a small portion in the central Burma. However, as the Bamars have been quite successful Burmanizing the people in the past half a decade, with assimilation and mixed marriages, there are more people identifying themselves as Bamar now leaving their true identities.

[@SaiKyaw-x4r]

True, it's very important that we need to establish more ethnic schools that'll teach their native language primarily as opposed to being secondary to Burmese language.

[@sarathdassanaike2807]

Burmese people are great and follow Buddhist traditions and culture If insurgents, Terrorist ,rebellious groups take control of Myanmar 🇲🇲 that the end of freedom loving people of Myanmar Burmese have natural beauty natural resources of Gas gold petroleum virgin forests with teak timber ,rice fields can feed Asia, fresh water rivers , Buddhist Temples and Monks and

[@farnorthmyanmar5185]

It is just a dream. At the end, the rebel never ever got victory along the history of Myanmar's Military.

[@c.kainoabugado7935]

I did find that interesting! I recall seeing the coup in 2021. This is very detailed and informative. Ty.

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Thanks. Yes, it went very quiet. But the situation should be getting more attention than it is.

[@c.kainoabugado7935]

@@JamesKerLindsay there's a disinterest in politics and more disinterest in international politics. I think it's like football, when I didn't know the rules and goals I didn't care. But someone took time to tell me and now I know NFL stuff lol. We don't get real exposure or informed like this in politics. We get instructions on the news and theories in school. Nothing to do but stay uninvolved is how we're guided by mainstream media. I'm battling this with my own community. Lmk other English speaking channels that cover Myanmar 🇲🇲 🙌🏽

[@kostam.1113]

Myanmar is one of the most diverse countries in the world And it has been in permanent state of crisis since its independence Diversity clearly is not strength

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Thanks. Great points. But I’m not sure I’d necessarily agree with the final sentiment. It could well be the case that if it breaks apart into smaller states, there could be even greater instability in the long run. It’s certainly an interesting debate.

[@SaiKyaw-x4r]

​​@@JamesKerLindsay If the ethnic states do leave, it would definitely have problems. Though it won't be too bad as organizations like AA, CNA, & KNLA have a stable grip over their lands. But States like Kachin or Shan (who hold many different armed factions), will not be any different than it is now.

[@haroldd7178]

The minority groups get along with eachother reasonably well both in Myanmar and north of the border in China. I suspect you westerners complain about "diversity" simply because your culture is too unsophisticated to coexist with others, let alone be leaders of any multiethnic nations. Even when you live in homogenous nations you will find excuses to bicker amongst yourselves over the most minor of differences.

[@alvinrodaje902]

I'm a filipino I think a civil war in Burma is very hard to solve insurgency because of many ethnic rebels...many rebels are Christian rebels ...huuuhh...my god.....god bles and.gudluck burmese.............long live phillippines

[@LarzGustafsson]

U Thant, anyone...?

[@JamesKerLindsay]

A great UN Secretary-General.

[@AceofDlamonds]

Very important point indeed. As an immigrant from Myanmar I understand there are separatist groups who aren't necessarily pro-democracy. I get the impression that they would be ruled by a king if it were up to them. But they nonetheless suffer from the dictatorship in power now and I sympathize with them because that's a struggle we share. Thanks for the video.

[@SaiKyaw-x4r]

I believe separatist movements stems from (aside from nationalism) the poor condition of their state and lack of trust towards the central government.