Hyperbulls say FSD is ready any day. It isn't.

[@tb2m]

Finally an honest critique on the current state of FSD!

[@larsnystrom6698]

For HW3!

[@dazisgud]

Issues like glare from the Sun and camera placement are not hardware. 3. Specific.

[@chrisdsouza8685]

@tb2m, you are right about it. Both speakers have put forward convincing problems.

[@tb2m]

@@larsnystrom6698 I have both HW3 and HW4. I’ve experienced problems with both.

[@LJ-jq8og]

💯 BRIAN💪❤... FSD It is FAR better but certainly not ready for prime time yet !

[@IanReid-e9r]

Thanks for keeping it real. Lately it's all unrealistic hype . Still the best.

[@chantzsch3916]

Agree. Just used it yesterday. Route was to take to an off ramp. Rather than seeing there was a long line of cars waiting to get off at the same ramp, (the line began at the entrance to the ramp) it was going to wait till until it was closer to the ramp before it would move over. I've always contended that it seems FSD doesn't look far enough ahead to truly evaluate when to make a lane change.

[@anngo2323]

Saskatoon, SK Canada. I've got FSD since 2022. For every update, I tried once, then said, "Maybe next time then". This year, 12.3.6 seemed very promising. I started to use it all the time, despite a lot of interventions. Finally, at 12.5.4, I decided to give up. Now, I use FSD only when there is no traffic around. Recently, it suddenly swerved into the next lane without any turn signal. I barely managed to avoid an accident. Before, it hit the curb once, run the red light twice. Many times, it suddenly changed lanes while turning at an intersection without any signal. When changing lanes, it turns on the signal and waits for a safe distance to make the move. However, the other driver slows down just a little bit. So FSD keeps on waiting as it doesn't see that distance as safe enough. If I don't intervene promptly, I will get a honk and a finger. When I need to stay in the right lane to turn right, it suddenly switches to the left lane and misses the turn as it is impossible to get back to the right lane. When I need to stay in the middle lane to go through the intersection, it stubbornly moves to the right lane (despite the signs showing that the right lane must turn right). Coming to the yellow light, it keeps the same speed as there is obviously enough time to go through the intersection before the red light. However, right at the intersection, it brakes pretty hard and then slowly crawls through the intersection. Once, the red light turns on and it stops just in the middle of the intersection. There is a street I need to take everyday from my house to work. That street has two lanes, but the right lane is also a parking lane. So it is used only for turning right or to park. When there is no traffic, it is OK. But when there some vehicles around, FSD starts to play ping-pong between these two lanes. This is very annoying. Maybe FSD works very well in California, but in my city, it doesn't work at all.

[@snookmeister55]

I believe a high degree of mapping is necessary to make it work. It makes the same mistakes at the same places.

[@mflies2399]

Glad you are a voice of reason versus the delusional takes of most of the Tesla influencers.

[@Cybertruck_69]

Brain, another video proving your integrity. 👏👏👏 🍺👍🏻

[@FutureAzA]

It's what I do, my friend.

[@tb2m]

@@Cybertruck_69 I agree whole heartedly

[@billyrio3767]

I agree, 'FSD' is a long way from 'ready'. I believe Tesla will eventually 'solve' it, but, take a look at what 'Dirty Tesla' is putting out lately in their video analysis. Their various challenges all end up at 'FAIL'. While there have been great strides, much more work is needed still. Eventually, the leader, Tesla, will conquer, then, reaping the rewards.

[@gansmaier3994]

❤ thank you brian. Honest opinions are very rare nowadays. Keep on that track please. As a European customer I have to say we are left behind. Its soon close to 1 year of v12 and my Autopilot is still trying to kill me if I engage it on the wrong road. Speed management is poor like you said. But I guess they will solve the hard part first for a reason.

[@slowercuber7767]

Drove over to Tuscaloosa to test out FSD 12.5.6.3 on the interchange from I-20 West to highway 69 to Moundville. It's a type of interchange that is rare in Alabama, but very common in some other places (like Minneapolis, MN). where the traffic exiting from I-20W to 69S shares a lane with traffic exiting 69N onto I-20W. Earlier version of FSD all had trouble with it, but 12.5.6.3 handled exiting onto 69S with no problems. Also, over about 70 miles of interstate in moderate traffic, FSD never once cut off a semi (or any other vehicle) after passing it, always getting far enough ahead before coming out of the passing lane. Definitely much better behavior than the earlier stack. Finally, as I said before, exiting the highway was superb; so much better than 12.5.4.x and earlier releases. Overall I love this new release in a word, it is SMOOTH, BUT, and it is a BIG BUT (and not the likeable kind), there seems to be no way to tell FSD to stay the $&#* in one lane anymore, I can find no Minimal Lane Change setting. It also still will not drive down or into my driveway, but that might be more a sign of intelligence than a fault.

[@darylfoster7944]

I didn't know there was a likeable kind

[@GROND15]

Just got my FSD trial month today. Had to drive 70+ miles in the rain. I shut fsd off after about 10 miles because I was tired of the car telling me the cameras were occluded. My mother was in the car and the repeated alarms made her very nervous. The road was 4 and 6 lane semi urban roads partways and the insistence on going the speed limit (45 mph) versus the actual traffic flow (high 50s) caused traffic to pile up behind me and the number of cars passing made lane changes difficult. FSD is like magic sometimes but it still has a good bit to go before unsupervised.

[@douglasgray3206]

You can change the settings so it won’t go the speed limit, I think.

[@GROND15]

@@douglasgray3206 it was set to be able to go over the limit. It would slow down to 2-3 mph over the limit no matter what I did with the max speed adjustment. If I used the pedal and sped it up it just crept down again.

[@greggrant4614]

Speed control has improved, but still has further to go for Cybercar readiness.

[@darylfoster7944]

You're not required to go with traffic flow. That's what the far right lane is for. Lots of old people drive slowly on both the freeway and city streets. If they're doing it in the left lane, that's a problem.

[@GROND15]

@@darylfoster7944 I was in the left lane. Traffic moves on that road at 55-60 mph. Going to slow makes it difficult and dangerous if you have to switch lanes since there is a steady parade of cars passing. The point is that the speed would creep down no matter what the settings or how I drove. I've only been driving for a little over 40 yr so your brilliant and helpful insight goes a long ways.

[@MarkSpohr]

I appreciate your balanced presentations

[@SHOE53]

Love Tesla and what they are doing, but FSD no way ready for every day driving.

[@northernouthouse]

FSD isn't ready. It phantom brakes at green lights.

[@MarksEscalona]

The idea that HW3 cameras have not enough resolution is speculative if you don't provide a technical backup. Same for glare. Dirt on camera, of course that will be an issue but its the same as if one camera fails during operation ---> the car will pull out of the road safely. You can bet that will happen before the FSD gets approved by regulators. But, all of that isn't doable with HW3?, maybe! You can be saying it for years but the most accurate you can be is getting lucky by 50%. I agree that % is much more now that Elon said it but any of that has nothing to do with the time FSD would be ready unless you really believe even HW4 cant achieve it.

[@bobroof]

I live in an area where the oil drilling companies transfer equipment that completely fills both lanes on a rural 2-lane road. These roads also have no shoulders, so you must find a pull-off quickly or pull totally into the ditch. They have a lead car that warns you to get off the road because the trucks don't stop. I'm not sure how FSD is going to handle it. I've had it occur once in FSD but intervened by not waiting for FSD. to realize that stopping on the road is not acceptable.

[@garethrobinson2275]

Haha, the trucks will just crash because they can't stop! 😂

[@joeclutchless1944]

Would you trust putting your two year old into a car with fsd unsupervised then sending it on a trip? Me neither.

[@larsnystrom6698]

FSD will have camera problems wintertime in Sweden. We put salt on the roads to manage ice, and without vipers and wiper fluid it can compleatly block off the cameras. This might not happen in a serious way more than one or two days a winter. But it would prevent you from automatic driving those times! So FSD won't easily be solved for Sweden (or Norway, I guess). We will still need a drivers license, and we won't have any RoboTaxis either, I once had the windshield compleatly blocked off when the conditions were so extreamly bad that I used up all the wiper fluid on a 15 miles drive! Have you ever drived in rain when the wipers failed? The water on the windshield are clear when driving very slowly, but it gets a wavely pattern, just like a bathroom window pane, even at city speeds! The same might happen with cameras without vipers. I don't think Tesla has solved this problem, and it will bite them!

[@calpowell1624]

I drive approximately 120 miles per day on FSD and it is not ready. I love it but it’s years from unsupervised.

[@timothyfarrell602]

FSD freaks out when it comes across tire skid marks.

[@roxter299roxter7]

2:28 Funny, turns out reality is more complicated than we thought. 🤔

[@chronart1]

My newest flaw. A large bird flew overhead casting a shadow crossing the road. It slowed a lot. I’ve had FSD for 5.5 years and recently had it transferred into a new model 3 for this bird event. 4 years ago it had a favorite STOP sign it liked to run. All I can say is -it is entertaining!

[@kevenfitzsimmons7191]

FSD is probably still needs another year.

[@eyesuckle]

You asked us to comment on how close we are to FSD working fully: Well, I thought we were a lot closer than we apparently are after listening to this thoughtful and honest discussion. Very interesting points. I find the one about the lack of a nose camera in all but the Cybertruck particularly troubling. Gotta wonder why this wasn't corrected with the Model 3 (and now the Y?) refresh. Seems like a perfect opportunity to fix that. Your point that this puts the camera in a far superior position to a human driver's when it comes to looking left and right at intersections is an excellent one. It just seems like a logical place to put a camera. Of course, switching to a nose camera would not solve the problem for the millions who have already purchased those models. Which, I'm guessing, is why Tesla continues with the current configuration. BTW, I say all this as someone who does not own and drive a Tesla (Can't afford it. . . yet. But I am a shareholder!)

[@justanotherbozo]

IMO, camera only FSD is a non starter.

[@robzienert7492]

Re: Will FSD work with HW3? Unless you work on the Tesla FSD team... face it.... any speculation (yes/no) is out of ignorance. Truly.

[@robzienert7492]

Oh! How close are we to FSD? Got me.....

[@didier_777]

Who cares if they can't make it work on HW3? If it works on HW4 it's solved. Only HW4 cars will be FSD Unsupervised and we move on. It would be nice if he upgrades HW3 FSD owners to HW4 but if he doesn't that still doesn't change the fact that they solved it. Honestly I would just stop trying to make it work and just abandon HW3 and focus on HW4. Time is money and every day you spend on HW3 is one less day you spend on FSD on HW4 and >.

[@ryan6391]

Great job you guys need to do a video like this every month or 2 and include your updates.

[@davidhuber6251]

I love my FSD (monthly) but yeah, it's got a way to go. A couple years, at least. Most of my disengagements are just personal preference, but start and endpoints are going to need a lot of work. And the cameras get dirty in the rain. The thing I like the most is pedestrian avoidance. It does a really good job at recognizing (even crazy jaywalkers) and avoiding them. We might be taking my moms license away before too long, she's 89 years old, and I don't think FSD will be saving me from playing chauffer, but I think it'll be good when I'm at that point.

[@andrasbiro3007]

Not going to take years, that's nonsense. Just look back how much FSD improved this year. And that was without Cortex.

[@danielstapler4315]

After this video I'm thinking well we still have Optimus :-) The thing about Optimus is: it can work inside to start with, maybe in a factory with fit workers who can wrestle it ot the ground if needed and the speed issue isn't a problem, etc etc.

[@chlistens7742]

when i was growing up they had ways to clear the camera lenses on racecars so they could televise it. I am sure in the many years since this was done cheaper and more effective ways have happened. I think any company relying on cameras need to have ways of cleaning them during use. How many of you have hit a mud puddle while driving on highways?

[@ZIRTUBE]

Just got the latest. FSD.. Incredible. I went through 3 tolls from PA to NJ 40 min drive and no intervention.. very super human . This guy has no clue.

[@rb8049]

FSD will appear done to users and it will be at least a year or two from that point. The last 9s are hard to see by users. I have HW3 and it’s not even good enough for daily use. It’s helpful, but it needs to be 5x better to be a really good product. But for Robotaxi, it’s 2 years out for all the 9s.

[@vermontsownboy6957]

Good content, good analysis. Thanks Brian.

[@nickhollingsworth2838]

Interesting conversation. I picked up a Tesla to sanity check FSD progress. v12 great improvement but latest release not so much. It failed my local roundabout, had a number of speed issues and instances of inaction requiring me to nudge the car by pressing the accelerator. These three things are new so it's probably AI training regression. I'm worried about FSD because how can local Govs approve supervised FSD operation when cameras are easily impaired by weather and AI training suffers from regression. Love to hear more on this. Thanks for the video.

[@christopherrubicam4474]

My AI4 FSD 12.5.6.3 still makes frequent lane selection errors that either diverge from the route or, worse, make illegal moves to stay on path.

[@TravisBennett-h3i]

They pushed out 12.5.6.3 to me yesterday HW4 MY. I just dropped off my son at the Cleveland airport and used it most of the way there from Akron, but instinctively tapped the brakes at a slow down from rush hour traffic near the airport. On the way back home I resisted the urge to intervene and it did good even though it was raining and in rush hour (if you don’t count that it was uncomfortably hugging a concrete construction barrier for a mile or two, it also overshot the white line for a stop light, and still refuses to pull into my driveway if I have to turn right to pull into it. Overall another marginal improvement from 12.3.2 that I was previously on.

[@levenkay4468]

After the most recent update, I notice that FSD supervised in my Model Y now constantly puts up "FSD may be degraded" notifiers, along with beeps and boops. I don't know just how "degraded" it's talking about, but these warnings are popping up during in-city driving at 35-45MPH. And they pop up, seemingly, if it's "too cloudy" (no rain at all; just overcast), or "too sunny ("xyz camera blocked or blinded") as well as when it's PNW-style (Portland's rain is very similar to Longview's) continuous mist.

[@robleacock4949]

Great video on a topic that matters. More of this please!

[@brucec954]

Yeah I don't know how they are going to solve the sun occluded problem where it says the camera is blinded. As a human, it is difficult but I can move the visor. I have had this problem on Tesla as well as other cars lane warning system. Getting to be a great driver assistance but Robotaxi with no steering wheel is a whole different animal.

[@Cybertruck_69]

Maybe they dim the pixels that are too bright, kinda like the inverse of the matrix headlights in the EU.

[@HarshColby]

AI3 cameras can't read road signs unless they're close. Just look at them while driving. I don't see how they're going to remedy that without swapping out the cameras.

[@fractalelf7760]

Brian you’re out of the club 😅 True FSD won’t happen the way you described for another three to five years I think.

[@gasser5001]

Any degrees in computer science?

[@fractalelf7760]

@ Yes actually.

[@Cybertruck_69]

Go look at an exponential growth and think about Tesla’s amazing AI computer power. My guess is as good as a human by mid 2025, although this doesn’t apply to bad weather where cameras are a limitation.

[@fractalelf7760]

@ I’m going off a number of variables. To get it good enough to be sent out and retrieve children 100% unsupervised? Wee bit off…

[@flash7750]

Agree with Mike I have hardware 3 and it is still 1 step forward 1/2 step back .Purchased FSD (10K )for my 2021model S and thought we would have actual FSD by now.Sadly Elon is still the boy who cried FSD.I will not be happy if there is a cost to upgrade to hardware 4

[@MarksEscalona]

He has gotten it wrong timewise but that is justifiable as no one has done it yet. Aren't you amazed by the current status of FSD because I am mind blown!? Did you hear Elon saying it would replace HW3 for free?

[@danielstapler4315]

The lesson of the boy who cried wolf that everyone seems to insist on ignoring is: eventually the wolf does come.

[@Rob_Womack]

FSD unfortunately can't make it out of my subdivision without 3 interventions. 2 giant speed bumps for which it does not slow down, and for some reason it won't slow down for the gate. All are very clearly marked. I don't know if it can't see them, or doesn't recognize them.

[@khuo0219]

i think the road bumps signs all look different so it is not easy to solve this issue. You know them because you remember them, the Tesla doesn't remember yet.

[@babyUFO.]

How DARE you speak truth on KZbin!

[@Cybertruck_69]

It’s called INTEGRITY

[@FutureAzA]

It isn't popular.

[@chrisschneider4226]

HW3 won’t cut it, but I have convinced myself it is a non issue. If Unsupervised FSD gets solved , the price will be probably 25k. You can let people transfer with that huge incentive, and there will be almost no one left with a HW3 FSD.

[@thetiredtourist3927]

I have been saying for years...FSD will not be ready until at least 2030 ... I stick by that

[@GWAForUTBE]

I thought it was ready too. Then I saw a vid of a fella running over common shyt like cardboard boxes. Your correct Brian Tesla FSD is very good but not ready for the cybercab

[@MarksEscalona]

If you think current camera placement will not be good for all scenarios then you cant believe FSD is possible with HW4. That's not what I am hearing from you both.

[@ScrappyDoodad]

People, be real! Full Self Driving will not really be viable without V2X and passive in road RFID markers to backup the V2X in case of hacking and glitches

[@Scottietheyoung]

This is what I have always thought, build passive proxi sensors into the roads.

[@robertjohnson6639]

Nevada will solve FSD around the same time Tesla does, and it may require more sensors, cameras only won't cut it in Northen climates.

[@Medizinstudium_im_Ausland]

Why did the video not come up when Tesla hit ATH? It’s easy to move with the sentiment. It’s hard to hold again. Optimus bot does useful work in Tesla factories. Soon it will go to production. It will not need to be perfect to roll out. Stock will 10X instant, easy.

[@Clearphish]

The other day, I had an interesting encounter. I was on Autoroute 50 With FSD engaged (HW3) and the “Automatic Set Speed Offset” option active, I was going around 110 kmph, and the car behind me started tailgating. On that part of the 50 It was impossible for the other car to pass me with only one lane available. My car started going faster, and I decided to experiment to see what could happen. The car behind continued to accelerate, and I was at 134 kmph without doing anything. I only started to slow down when I was approaching the car in front of me, which was driving slower.

[@nelzo1703]

It's the edge cases that are not even close to solved. In the past month I've had FSD try to drive right over police flares when the lane was closed for an accident and everyone else had already merged. I've had FSD try to plow right through a 4 way stop, maybe because they had the temporary stop signs up that were lower to the ground. I've had FSD try to drive right into a road closed sign, non-highway construction areas seem particularly poorly handled. These were all with clear conditions and clean cameras. It also for some reason still doesn't know state rural highway speed laws for unposted speeds, taking me 30 miles down an unposted (default to 55 in my state) road thinking it was a 25 the whole time. Plus we know that school zones, emergency vehicles, no turn on red during x hours, flag men, etc are still not handled.

[@todd1771]

Camera occlusion has been an issue in the PNW but on a last road trip it was raining hard and I couldn't believe how well it 'saw' the road while I could barely see the lanes. I don't know how they do it. Maybe when wiper rain sensing is good, that will be the sign they are close.

[@r.a.monigold9789]

To point out flaws or shortcomings (without ra nting) does not mean you are "against". It means you are willing to help improve. However, to ignore, deny or provide excuses for obvious faults does make you a cultist. Cultism is societies' issue today. Two extremes, each a cult means our ability to compromise is compromised. Extra round of chill pills for the two cults in America would go a long way in returning us to a peaceable Nation.

[@Cybertruck_69]

Tesla should continue to allow FSD transfers as it will reduce the number of FSD HW3 upgrades they may someday have to do.

[@slowercuber7767]

Tesla is obviously very close to unsupervised FSD; it might be solved any time in the next 120 months. Though frankly, I think cyber cabs will truly be on the road in 2026, maybe even in 2025 in limited use.

[@jeffreymckie3328]

In Ohio the exits are plenty long however, the white line at the shoulder makes an abrupt S curve. Well the car tries to follow that S curve which it can’t. The car makes violent turn and runs half the car over into the shoulder and scares hell out of my why. Luckily she has a lot of hell because it does it every time. Michigan doesn’t have shoulder lines like this and it exits smoothly.

[@freddymax5256]

Don’t let your wife know you called her a why.

[@genelane2243]

Maybe Tesla should put radar back in, radar detection that is, to automatically lock the speed limit in as an absolute maximum until no radar detected.

[@cyrusadamrevilla3851]

They're building Cortex mostly for Optimus imho, not for FSD.

[@LJ-jq8og]

MIKE 💪❤ is "spot on..." ❗

[@APatchworkCanvas]

Subbed just because of the realistic take on fsd

[@rich1383yt]

Not that close. I’ve been saying they are “2 years away” since it came out. Still 2 years for true FSD, door-to-door.

[@RoqueExclusives]

I have the opposite of FSD not slowing down with big speed changes. Mine hits the breaks pretty hard to get to the speed as soon as we’re past the sign. I wish it’d start to let off quite a bit before the sign and not right when the speed changes.

[@FutureAzA]

Today it was on a highway that ends in town and the speed limit goes from 55 to 35. Well past the sign I was still going 57. I disengaged.

[@seventeenthchild655]

How close are we?.. ..Personally, I think it will be ready to go by the end of 2025. I even have a coffee-and-donut bet with a buddy of mine to that effect.

[@Cybertruck_69]

FSD will get there, but agree it isn’t there yet. Hyper bulls exaggerate the abilities. My ‘24 mY LR with HW4 as is will imo never work for 6 months per year. The camera design does not have washing ability (eyelids) and it doesn’t have any way to deal with overexposure (Iris or tinting). When HW3 eventually gets upgraded hopefully they do the cameras too. The mY is one of the best and quickest and amazing car I have ever owned or been in. Software cannot compensate for deficient hardware issues.

[@gpsfinancial6988]

If it is going to be safer than a human it makes sense to have cameras further forward. Not living in USA I'd be happy if EAP slowed for right angle corners.

[@shannon6876]

I think personally that they'll have everything that can be solved with cameras only usefully solved in 2026. I agree that we would benefit from some camera view angles and camera cleaning options that we don't yet have. But the rear camera is constantly distorted beyond belief even in light rain, and no matter how many times I clean it, it's right back to nightmare dream views. I've tried putting hydrophobic coatings on it, and that doesn't seem to do much, or not for long if it does. Not sure how to solve this issue, but i'm sure they'll figure something out before they take legal responsibility for unsupervised.

[@streamingdemon2522]

These limitations have convinced me that unfortunately fsd will never be unsupervised, it will remain a party trick and would be a nice included feature as super autopilot supervised. There will be no solution to the ocludded camera scenarios and out of view scenarios.. Shame i was all in now im all out. Furthermore hw3 is definitely insufficient and i can not see millions of those units getting free upgrades to equal the entire new hw4 technologies .. Not gonna happen

[@davidneuzil9356]

I've ben using my 30 day trial. Sorry, It aint ready. No way. Its worse than the previous version. I was very dissapointed.

[@glennbeattie6172]

I think you are missing the bigger picture. With Elon it's about timing. If you want to know the Teslas expected FSD date look at all the components. Like regulations, charging pad, compute and inverance, and insurance. Elon will speed up or slow down things to meet his timelines.

[@tribalypredisposed]

I took SOOO much crap back in 2018 when Tesla announced HW4 and I said HW3 would never reach FSD. Whatever, I will keep being right over and over and most everyone else can be wrong.

[@marriagepartnersministry5942]

You were speculating and guessing AND your still not necessarily correct, yet.

[@tribalypredisposed]

@@marriagepartnersministry5942 I worked at Tesla at the time and had already followed the company closely for years, I knew that Tesla does not just keep improving a part because the group working on it needs something to do. Especially in 2018 when funds were very tight at Tesla, if they did not know with good confidence that HW3 would not get them to robo taxi land then they would not have started on HW4 even before HW3 was in cars coming off the line. Some of us have knowledge and logic to use, the rest of you guess and speculate.

[@AquarianSoulTimeTraveler]

Yeah if you have a subscription you don't own full self-driving...

[@geoffgeoff3333]

Ceramic Coat your cameras and windshields - the easiest way to not have dirty cameras.

[@FutureAzA]

Sounds like good advice.

[@scottmiller2159]

My experience with HW4 on the latest software say's at least another year if not two for unsupervised FSD. I do hope I'm wrong

[@FutureAzA]

Made a video last night of the car just parked at an intersection with a flashing red light. It just saw it as a red light. No cha-cha this time, but also no movement. If it was a cab, that's where it would live now.

[@VasuJaganath]

FSD isn’t ever going to be ready. It’s just the WRONG approach. Geofencing is the ONLY way. FSD is AT best a decent ADAS system. You can get to HW18 and yet there will be corner cases, bad map data, bad weather, other bad drivers, infinitely many corner cases and just the magnitude of power required for training to get 10x better than human. That is in the order of 10TW or perhaps even 1000TW. So basically impossible.

[@Travlinmo]

Here in phoenix I could believe it’s done in 2025. Pick up to the kids ?? Which one? The one I like or the evil one? 😈

[@didier_777]

This is not a good rationale for making a case for "FSD is not ready". The previous hardware version is not good enough. FSD can be unsupervised for HW4 soon and that's good enough. Let's ignore the hardware 4 because that doesn't support my argument. Don't even think about bringing up HW5 because that's what the Robotaxi is going to have and that may work really well. HW4 has better resolution cameras and will utilize better resolution with version 13. Yes there are some issues but as the versions keep training under more compute power the results will be better. Version 13 will probably not work great on HW3 but who cares it's about solving the problem not about fulfilling every single promise made by EM. If HW3 can't handle FSD though shit keep moving fw. Maybe people get upgraded may be not the jackpot is Robotaxi.

[@MrMR-hp6ed]

Brian, FSD performs drastically better in areas like San Francisco, it will take years for unsupervised to be on a single stack and be used anywhere. The data Tesla is training on is data from California and Texas..higher population density + more tesla vehicles available to collect data.. Mark my words, it will take years for FSD to be unsupervised across the US. Will it be deployed faster than Waymo and all the others…absolutely, but I don’t think anyone realizes how much data is required to train and perform better than a human in the entirety of the United States. Hey and if I’m wrong we all win big cause like everyone I’m heavily invested and want it to succeed, so I hope I’m wrong, don’t worry, I’m not gonna sell like Lee did if they don’t figure FSD out in the next year

[@Cybertruck_69]

How does a 16 yo learn in a small town then?

[@MrMR-hp6ed]

@@Cybertruck_69 A 16 year old is significantly smarter than the current iteration of FSD...Don't be fooled, while this tech is absolutely mind boggling, it's still very stupid and no where near AGI.

[@MrMR-hp6ed]

@ not to mention a small town is not a very complex scenario and the United States is not comprised entirely of small towns. I’m ultra bullish on Tesla and FSD but I think a FSD being at the level it needs to be varies from location to location, I would bet Tesla knows down to the street or street type that FSD knows how to navigate. Do you understand how much data is required to train? It’s incomprehensible to us mortals but I accurately predicted that Elon would say FSD would be unsupervised in only a couple areas before the robo taxi event. And what did he say? Remind me?

[@crazyhank99]

speed management doesn't seem like much of an obstacle

[@1sesh]

What happens when a cybercab’s cameras get mud all over them?

[@michaelnurse9089]

ALL the cameras?

[@kevenfitzsimmons7191]

Thanks!

[@FutureAzA]

Glad to help!

[@markbourne4623]

Musk has been promising full FSD every year since 2016/2017. Tesla has failed to deliver on Musk’s promises. And yet, Musk sycophants continue to believe Musk’s BS that FSDs release is imminent. Full FSD is clearly difficult to crack. I do not see any auto maker delivering a safe, reliable full FSD solution to market anytime in the next decade. In particular, Musk’s insistence that a camera based system is all that is required to crack full FSD leaves me doubtful that Tesla will ever deliver on Musk’s promises of FSD.

[@machoopichoo2]

As usual, a realistic take! I am bullish because they are on the right track now and have the enormous data set this will require. I am also bullish because AI has shown us the leap from mediocre to nearly unbelievable can seemingly occur over night - even if FSD doesn't seem close right now, we could see a step change occur, all of a sudden.

[@douglasgray3206]

Here is a question for someone good at math. If there is only one accident every million miles and there are a million robocabs how often would there be an accident ?

[@danielstapler4315]

If the average Robo taxi does 240 miles a day then there would be 240 accidents a day.

[@MrManlyMan1]

I agree, it is so not ready

[@idocmirk]

I don't think they will retrofit any hardware 3 cars. Possibly will give a $5k to $10k credit on a new car with hardware 4 or 5.

[@Cybertruck_69]

They upgraded HW2.5 to HW3 for free. Betting it is only a few thousand per vehicle for new cameras and computer.

[@johnparsons3454]

FSD is not even close in my opinion.

[@thomasreese2816]

If it can run on HW4, it can run on HW3. The compute is within the same magnitude, and just needs to be optimized. It is possible that cameras could need to be upgraded, and that HW3 simply could handle that increase.

[@FutureAzA]

I share your opinion, but I do so out of ignorance. I can't see the answer from where I stand, but I'm confident their engineers understand the issue.

[@AquarianSoulTimeTraveler]

​@@FutureAzAYeah definitely not going to have starlink connected to the vehicles so if they need to be controlled by robotaxi hq then cheap Chinese labor can be used for over air control correction commands, that's definitely not gonna happen over night... Isn't like Elon Musk has been setting this up the whole time... Definitely hasn't been launching enough starlink satellites... You would need thousands of starlink satellites... Oh wait... 😉

[@davehimebauch8474]

Hello Longview, from Kalama. Watch every download that I see. Expect 2nd quarter 2025.

[@FutureAzA]

We should connect some time.

[@FutureAzA]

If you're free tonight, there's an Oregon Electric Vehicle Association meeting in Portland. OEVA.org has the details. It's open to all.

[@brucedavey2962]

I totally agree

[@Nerlin]

I expect HW5 will solve it. Why else are they working on a new chip is AI4 chip is so awesome? They will need a lot more memory on the board if the car is to personalize your driving experience based on the drivers whims. Which everyone seems to expect. Personally I don't care it drives differently then me, as long as it does it safely.

[@Cybertruck_69]

Can’t be slower than my long ago passed Grandma though!!

[@brutelijkecht6461]

Love the show. 🎉. We wait I europe

[@snookmeister55]

Phantom Braking Phantom Braking

[@InstantDefense682]

Don't think we need Space Balls.

[@alfaeco15]

Not yet solved, but is it eventally solvable?

[@hakanstuns43]

Its far from ready. I think at least 5 more years. Maybe 10 if they dont fix some hardware.

[@APatchworkCanvas]

It is impressive, and I’m excited for it but they over inflate the usefulness of fsd by a lot. It’s really fucking cool, but it’s not there.

[@FutureAzA]

That's my conclusion as well. As a driver assist, it's second to none. As FSD, it just isn't there yet.

[@craighermle7727]

Thank you, Brian, for posting your vid. It was a breath of fresh air, and not because it was "negative" but rather because it was honest. Let me state this upfront: I'm not a scientist or engineer, I worked in the hardware software field for 30 years, I own a 24 Y LR, with 16,000 miles, and I am also long on Tesla stock. I just replayed your video to validate what I thought I heard

[@FutureAzA]

I've got a video coming up you're not gonna like.

[@batchint]

here is that lucida criteria… well some…

[@dialy1]

I follow Waymo cabs every day in my neighborhood while on FSD. My model S actually does better than they do even though they are geofenced and my car is not. In the LA area, I never ever have a disengagement due to an unsafe FSD choice. I would definitely trust my car to drive unsupervised on my daily routes. Maybe it’s an LA thing but I am sure that Tesla could easily have a robotaxi network wherever Waymo operates and do better.

[@Robert-jd6xc]

Why are you talking about HW3 when Tesla is shipping HW4? Useless conversation.

[@FutureAzA]

They sold millions of them. It's likely most of the cars. That deserves mention.