Naive, Moving Average, Weighted Moving Average (Forecasting Techniques) Lecture # 10

This lecture explains the first three forecasting techniques. These approaches will help us in prediction of the future demands. The example that we took was from seasonal variations.
We tried to explain the three main approaches.
0:00 Introduction to types of forecasting
1:39 Naive Approach
4:43 Moving Average Approach
6:22 two months moving average
10:10 three months moving average
12:58 Weighted Moving Average Approach
Exponential smoothing:
• Exponential Smoothing ...

[@xhenihoxha7093]

Thank you so much, your explanation is much more understandable than my phd.professor! Great job !

[@technicalpeaks]

Glad it was helpful!

[@soshomastho5246]

So true! Will support you by subscribing and sharing it with my fellows!

[@chrystaltoo2]

You break this topic down very well. Thank you so much for making it simple to understand!!

[@technicalpeaks]

I am really glad to know that you liked it! Best wishes!

[@marjoriejohnson9421]

OMG thank you so much. I'd gotten the Naive and the MA, but the WMA was just totally over my head, the way it was explained in my textbook. I appreciate the help.

[@technicalpeaks]

I am glad to be of help!!

[@Adam1llion]

Thank you so much! My textbook did not explain naive at all and this was spot on!

[@technicalpeaks]

Glad to be of help! Best wishes!

[@LalitKumar-nj7xc]

Thank you , the way you explain is very good.

[@technicalpeaks]

Glad I could help!! Really appreciate your support!!

[@damithboange456]

Thank sir, love from sri lanka

[@technicalpeaks]

Always welcomed!!

[@chiefdoer]

Thank you

[@technicalpeaks]

Appreciate your support

[@CUTECAT59036]

Thank you sir. This is a very informative video and it helps me a lot with my preparations for my mid exams.

[@technicalpeaks]

Glad to be of help!! 🌻 🌻

[@jessaortiz263]

Thank you so much♥️♥️♥️

[@rushinisandamini2461]

Thank you sir.from sri lanka..

[@d-76reetinarshanahr43]

its definitely worth it. thankyou so much.

[@technicalpeaks]

Appreciate your support

[@karllocke4088]

Well explained, thanks so much

[@technicalpeaks]

I am glad you liked it. 🌻🌻

[@selinakhosa592]

Wooooow this helped alot

[@sanda_muthu2854]

Thank you so much!

[@technicalpeaks]

Welcome!

[@mulengakazembe557]

The video is so helpful

[@technicalpeaks]

I am glad you liked it. Please subscribe, your support would help a lot!

[@lamagh778]

Thank u soooo much , you helped me🙏🏻

[@technicalpeaks]

I am glad to be of help! Please do subscribe! Would help me a lot!

[@francismali5840]

Thank you so much ❤️❤ Peace be unto you sir❤🇿🇲🇿🇲🇿🇲🇿🇲

[@technicalpeaks]

Appreciate your support 👍

[@bontu4018]

Thank you so much I have one question how to a form product dd for the least period is given below period dd period 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9 dd 44,52,50,54,55,55,60,56,62 develop a linear trend equation ,predict the dd value for the next period and find the regression equation

[@comfortkabanshi5048]

This is a least squares method problem

[@_vishchauhan]

You are good teacher 👍

[@technicalpeaks]

Thank you! 😃

[@midnightdishwasher1071]

thanks alot

[@technicalpeaks]

Always welcomed!

[@navketan1965]

Sir, If I am doing double exponential smoothing 5 period moving average with a software program--after 5 period exponential moving average is calculated say (X) does computer do second calculation with data X and (X-t1) (X-t2) (X-t3) (X-t4)- - - - forgive me,I went to college 50 years ago..(X-t1) is exponential moving average one period prior & so on.

[@technicalpeaks]

Hi. Navketan, I couldn't quite understand.

[@technicalpeaks]

For exponential smoothing, we need the difference of previous period Actual and predicted, combining with moving average of five periods.

[@nimralatif7231]

Thank u it help me alote ❤

[@technicalpeaks]

Glad to be of help!!!

[@breathemusic5260]

Is this correct method? Because on other channels I am seeing that... For example to calculate for 3 month moving average , they place the value between the 3 samples... But you have placed value after 3 samples.. Can you please clarify?

[@technicalpeaks]

I don't know if I am understand you correctly. But you are saying that in order to find the 3 months moving average for any upcoming month you need one previous month demand, present month demand and the next month demand. But that doesn't make sense to me. Because If you already know demand of the next month why would you find it's forecasting demand. I double checked it from books that I use and this is the right method to do so. To find 3 months moving average forecasting demand for upcoming month.. you need to average the last three months demands.

[@breathemusic5260]

@@technicalpeaks what I was saying is mentioned in this video. can you please let me know ,which method to go with. kzbin.info/www/bejne/d3WrfoJ4nqeWfMk

[@technicalpeaks]

Okay. Got it! She is doing the same thing. Except she says that 21.4 is the moving average. She doesn't mention forecast she is only telling how to find moving average. But in my video we are considering that moving average as our next year forecast!

[@technicalpeaks]

So, infact she is placing 21.4 in the middle of first 5 years because it's their moving average. But if forecasting it will be considered as forecast for the sixth year.

[@technicalpeaks]

So. If you are dealing with moving average only then follow her technique. But if you are trying to find the forecast through moving average then follow my method!!

[@ikssiam2178]

Exponential smoothing Method Does not cover in this Video?

[@technicalpeaks]

No. It's in the next video. Here is the link to exponential smoothing. kzbin.info/www/bejne/rHaYqaNog5ZmgdE

[@pashtun-travels-uk]

Any information about linear algebra and simulation and modeling techniques

[@technicalpeaks]

I have uploaded some videos explaining mathematical modeling of different types of systems. Including mechanical, electrical and have multiple degrees of freedom!

[@pashtun-travels-uk]

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[@technicalpeaks]

kzbin.info/aero/PLqxBD-2nGTjcmG07y3KywbhgTYtAmJWe6

[@technicalpeaks]

This is the complete playlist!

[@mixedm-bstudio1518]

Sir it's me,kindly show those videos which u hidden of rac lab.soon plz

[@technicalpeaks]

They are public now. Please share them with your fellows so, it can get more views otherwise it'll affect the rest of my videos. That's why I had to keep them private.

[@pashtun-travels-uk]

Salam..how to contact you sir? In Peshawar

[@technicalpeaks]

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[@karanrwt]

bhai jb english m dikkat h to hindi m hi bnalo video

[@technicalpeaks]

Use subtitles please

[@shazimgujjar3972]

Very informative but kindly work on your accent don’t try to copy English peoples accent use your own natural accent in english speaking and second suggestion is kindly make videos in urdu so the people can understand easily.

[@technicalpeaks]

I don't copy. It's my natural accent! Thanks for your nice feedback!

[@shazimgujjar3972]

@@technicalpeaks ok sorry for this n highly appreciate your skills❤️