Thank you for this video! First time I actually understood these concepts after about 3 weeks on this subject
@yohbs184 жыл бұрын
Thank you po! Currently watching. Really appreciate this kind of teaching especially we are now learning via online. Hoping for more videos.
@EzrhaGodilano4 жыл бұрын
More videos will be available! Thank you for watching!
@alvincabela50662 жыл бұрын
thank you po sa dami ng ni research ko kayo lang talaga naintindihan ko about this forecasting methods
@EzrhaGodilano2 жыл бұрын
Thank you for your appreciation!
@meelamonyamane68153 жыл бұрын
After an interview, I realized I need to brush up on my data analysis! Lovely channel
@EzrhaGodilano3 жыл бұрын
Thank you very much! I appreciate this kind of comments about my channel. Good luck! ♥️
@ranedwardzamorao5 жыл бұрын
Currently reviewing for CIE and found out your vids. Your vids were great and helpful. I hope you upload more of these.
@EzrhaGodilano5 жыл бұрын
Will be uploading more, thank you for subscribing! And hope you share this with our fellow IEs!
@yzabellevego84064 жыл бұрын
Mashelpful pa to kesa sa Prof ko. Thank you po talaga!
@EzrhaGodilano4 жыл бұрын
Yza Belle Vego You’re welcome! Feel free to share this with your friends and batch mates :)
@angelomartinez46164 жыл бұрын
Thank you madam! Super ganda ng tutorials niyo
@EzrhaGodilano4 жыл бұрын
Glad I could help! Thank you for watching!
@christianuy7352 жыл бұрын
i love you mam. you saved me for pmy presentation.
@JohnnyJanceLTV4 жыл бұрын
Thank you ..napakahelpful po ito.now I know na pano po makuha Ang forecast
@EzrhaGodilano4 жыл бұрын
Thank you for watching!
@nicoleangeliquebabol85564 жыл бұрын
thank you po, very helpful po sa ginagawa kong assignment ngayon ☺️
@EzrhaGodilano4 жыл бұрын
You’re welcome! Thank you for watching! 🤗
@arthurjeromebalite37862 жыл бұрын
Thank you po for this video.. helpful po sa work
@crisbergere77884 жыл бұрын
Simple and complete, thank you!
@EzrhaGodilano4 жыл бұрын
Cristina Bergere Thank you for watching!
@fridayvalencia48983 жыл бұрын
Thank you po. Goal ko rin po magturo gaya niyo, salamat po ulit
@rafaeldayaocpacma3 жыл бұрын
Thanks, Ezrha.
@mohammedanas22513 жыл бұрын
Awesome explanation sister
@miguelisip81223 жыл бұрын
Thanks Ma'am.Ang galing po
@EzrhaGodilano3 жыл бұрын
You’re welcome, and thank you!
@NestorGelio10 ай бұрын
Great video! Any book recommendations po regarding forecasting especially yung other method tulad ng ASL, AGC, SSL, at APC. Thank you.
@pelegrinonicoleericanavarr67314 жыл бұрын
This is really helpful! 💖 Thank you po!
@EzrhaGodilano4 жыл бұрын
You’re welcome!
@emmanueldelrosario-x8x2 ай бұрын
Hello Ma'am ,where did you get .4 in MA period 4 pls?
@EzrhaGodilano2 ай бұрын
Are you referring to Example 2.2? If yes, it’s given in the problem.
@kunshilukas4 жыл бұрын
Great content! Can you please recommend a good book on this?
@EzrhaGodilano4 жыл бұрын
Thank you for watching! My reference is Operations Management by Heizer and Render :)
@rhonelsecob34282 жыл бұрын
Hello, can you help to answer this po? Which of the forecasting methods should be used for a short term planning and long-term planning?
@maricartejano4973 жыл бұрын
Hi I am just confuse in the exponential technique I cant seem to get on why the forecast output is 62 because I tried to compute I arrive at 65 something. Please enlighten me. Thank you
@EzrhaGodilano3 жыл бұрын
Hello! I assume you are referring to the forecast for period 3. Just follow the formula. If you are on period 3, you should use the values from the previous period, period 2. The formula would be 60 + 0.4(65-60). 60 is the forecast for period 2 while 65 is the actual value for period 2. 0.4 is the alpha.
@sapsalingpusacattalkmaykwe15562 жыл бұрын
Ty mam new follower
@charleschoa38254 жыл бұрын
Hi Ms Ezrha, for seasonality method, possible ba to use average of last 2 data points? Like data 4 and 8 in your example, instead of just using 8?
@EzrhaGodilano4 жыл бұрын
Hello! If seasonal yung method, we need to follow the peak periods. In this case, every 4 days may peak value, kaya sia naging seasonal. Then the forecast for the next season is the same value of the last season.
@erikapoblete42284 жыл бұрын
Hi Miss Ezrha, what if sa problem, they didn't indicate the weighted average and its just the table. What are we gonna do to solve the weighted average?
@EzrhaGodilano4 жыл бұрын
Hello! I think if walang weights na given in the problem, it will just be a moving average type of solution. You’ll just get the average for a specific time frame, like for 3 periods, or 4 periods :)
@erikapoblete42284 жыл бұрын
@@EzrhaGodilano thank you po, last for clarification lang. For 3 periods ( 0.5 , 0.3 & 0.2) and for 4 periods (0.1 , 0.2 , 0.3 & 0.4) tama po ba? Sorry po, for asking so much question 😢 self-based learning po kase yung way namin and yung prof namin quiz agad walang discussion
@EzrhaGodilano4 жыл бұрын
No problem with asking :) No, you won’t assign weights. Just assume na it will follow a simple average format. Just get the average. You may message me via messenger so I can see the exact problem your professor gave as an example.
@sapsalingpusacattalkmaykwe15562 жыл бұрын
So mam sa moving average for example sa cookies 3 moving average nya is 21, 18 and 17 so kukunin ung average 21+18+17=56
@EzrhaGodilano2 жыл бұрын
Hi! Sa 3-period moving average, last 3 input data ang gagamitin. Divide by 3 pa po yung 56 sa example mo :)
@sapsalingpusacattalkmaykwe15562 жыл бұрын
ty po
@karenclairepayabyab92812 жыл бұрын
Hello po good afternoon, dun sa may part po na exponential smoothing, paano po kukunin yung sa period 6 ng number of complaints? thank you po
@EzrhaGodilano2 жыл бұрын
Hi! Are you referring to the actual or forecast? If forecast for period 6, you can use the formula as stated in 25:02 along with the answer. If you are referring to the actual complaints, based in this problem, until period 5 lang yung given based on the book :)
@karenclairepayabyab92812 жыл бұрын
@@EzrhaGodilano thank you po
@lanaknows5 жыл бұрын
Great vid, just one question, why is alpha for exponential smoothing 0.4?
@EzrhaGodilano5 жыл бұрын
Lana Thanks! the value of the alpha is given in most problems. But for reference, if the forecast seems to be stable, or the data is stable, we use a lower value of alpha. If the data is not stable, say no historical data exists, we use a higher value of alpha. Exponential smoothing constant ranges from 0 to 1. Hope this helps!!
@charleschoa38254 жыл бұрын
@@EzrhaGodilano Does that mean that using a higher alpha for a "flat" data will over-estimate your forecasts? Added question: How "flat" is "flat"?
@EzrhaGodilano4 жыл бұрын
Charles Choa Hello! As quoted from the book reference Principles of Operations Management by Heizer and Render, “choose high values of alpha when the underlying average is likely to change, and low values of alpha when underlying average is stable.” Improper use of alpha values may result to a higher forecast error.
@lanaknows4 жыл бұрын
@@EzrhaGodilano Thank you so much for these answers, unfortunate that I didn't get a notification earlier hahah but still appreciate it! :)
@EzrhaGodilano4 жыл бұрын
Lana you’re welcome!
@augustinejunior33613 жыл бұрын
I don't understand the mixing of language in this video. However, i got the point
@stitchesbycrsty3 жыл бұрын
Paano po pag given yung sales from January to December then we are asked by our teacher to forecast January sales using Naive Method.
@EzrhaGodilano3 жыл бұрын
I discussed the Naïve method in the earlier part of the video :) Just observe the data set. If all data are close with each other, stable. If the tail is continuously increasing/decreasing, trend. If there are obvious peaks or dips in the data, that’s seasonal.
@geraldalindajao4463 жыл бұрын
Ano po gamit nyo na software in showing this great visuals po?.. ang ganda po
@EzrhaGodilano3 жыл бұрын
Hello! Thank you for the appreciation. I’m using Doceri for iPad for the screencast :)
@GGTESTIFY4 жыл бұрын
very clear can I suggest po na magkaroon ng CIE reviewers?
@EzrhaGodilano4 жыл бұрын
Hello! Thank you for watching! That will be my next project :) Good luck with the review!
@christiangallegos61014 жыл бұрын
Thank you po, helpful po to
@EzrhaGodilano4 жыл бұрын
You’re welcome! Thank you for watching!
@andreamaevallescas97322 жыл бұрын
hi maam! paano po macompute ang actual demand?
@EzrhaGodilano2 жыл бұрын
Hi! Given ang actual demand, forecast ang computed using the formula :)
@andreamaevallescas97322 жыл бұрын
@@EzrhaGodilano pinapahanap po kasi samin din yung actual demand sa last po eh kahit sa tingin ko po na given lang siya
@petinesjayvees.44182 жыл бұрын
hi maam ezrha super helpful po ng video niyo.. ask ko lng po what if like sa seasonal example nio po ee iisa lng yung peak na pinakita like for example day 4 lng yung nagpakita ng peak sa buong data considered parin po ba as seasonal siya? and also napansin ko rin lng po sa example niyo sa seasonal variations na beside from the peaks shown sa data set, yung last four data numbers din po on the same data set keeps decreasing like from 28 to 18 to 16,14... does tht mean it can or might also fall into trend maam? ..thnks po/
@EzrhaGodilano2 жыл бұрын
hi! thanks for watching! To answer your questions: 1. If one day lang (Day 4) shows peak, you’ll have to observe the entire data set on the behavior. It can still fall under stable or trend. 2. It depends on the behavior of the data. Once there is a consistent rise in values, showing peaks or dips, that’s seasonal. For better interpretations, you can create a graph of your data set to have a more visual observation of the data. Stable will most likely have a semi-straight line, or variability among data set is very minimal. Trend will most likely produce a line either going up or going down towards the tail, and Seasonal will show if there are constant peaks or dips in the graph. I hope this helps!
@petinesjayvees.44182 жыл бұрын
@@EzrhaGodilano thanks maam for clarify keep posting po malinaw po kasi kyo mag explain.more powers po,❤️❤️❤️
@glifcleaningservices71294 жыл бұрын
You make great video on forecasting techniques.... Subscribed and will recommend others too... Can you please make substitles for the same
@EzrhaGodilano4 жыл бұрын
Thank you very much! Working on having the subtitles on these videos. :)
@maryangeline48144 жыл бұрын
thankyou ppoooo
@christianflores96973 жыл бұрын
Hello po! Paano po pag sa weighted moving average hindi given ung weights? BTW very helpful po ung video
@EzrhaGodilano3 жыл бұрын
Hello! If weights are not given, you can treat it as just average method. It just means that weights are equal and negligible :)
@kasturiamanibintinorhidzam54832 жыл бұрын
really hope you can speak English fully next time :'), it was such a good video but cant fully understand due to the language.
@EzrhaGodilano2 жыл бұрын
Thank you for watching! I can translate parts that are not clear if you want. I’ll try to put it subtitles next time. :)
@MegaZECAPETA4 жыл бұрын
please put the subtitles
@EzrhaGodilano4 жыл бұрын
thank you for watching! Will try to explore the means of putting subtitles on the videos :)
@abadijuanita23613 жыл бұрын
I will appreciate it, if you can teach this topic in English completely
@EzrhaGodilano3 жыл бұрын
Thank you for watching! I am working on putting subtitles on my bilingual videos. :)
@jessicasubel1593 Жыл бұрын
The video was great but the issue is you didn't take into consideration those that doesn't understand your language. At some point I couldn't comprehend what you were saying due to moving in and out of English.
@timixx22702 жыл бұрын
Why does she need to say the most important thing in her language? I can't understand it. So annoying whe people start in English and carries on in a different language like Indians do normally or mixing it. After 5 minutes I had enough and left I couldn't watch it. Shame because it sounded as a good explanation
@EzrhaGodilano2 жыл бұрын
Sorry, the video was initially meant for my Filipino students years back. If you want to clarify the part you did not understand, I can translate it for you.