Forecasting methods Part 1 (Naive Approach, Averaging, Exponential smoothing)

Hello guys!
This video is about the first series of techniques for Forecasting.
This video is in Taglish.
For more information, you may reach me through the following channels:
Facebook: / ezrha.godilano
Gmail: [e-mail]

[@evregirl]

Thank you for this video! First time I actually understood these concepts after about 3 weeks on this subject

[@yohbs18]

Thank you po! Currently watching. Really appreciate this kind of teaching especially we are now learning via online. Hoping for more videos.

[@EzrhaGodilano]

More videos will be available! Thank you for watching!

[@ranedwardzamorao]

Currently reviewing for CIE and found out your vids. Your vids were great and helpful. I hope you upload more of these.

[@EzrhaGodilano]

Will be uploading more, thank you for subscribing! And hope you share this with our fellow IEs!

[@crisbergere7788]

Simple and complete, thank you!

[@EzrhaGodilano]

Cristina Bergere Thank you for watching!

[@rdayaocpa]

Thanks, Ezrha.

[@fridayvalencia4898]

Thank you po. Goal ko rin po magturo gaya niyo, salamat po ulit

[@mohammedanas2251]

Awesome explanation sister

[@pelegrinonicoleericanavarr6731]

This is really helpful! 💖 Thank you po!

[@EzrhaGodilano]

You’re welcome!

[@meelamonyamane6815]

After an interview, I realized I need to brush up on my data analysis! Lovely channel

[@EzrhaGodilano]

Thank you very much! I appreciate this kind of comments about my channel. Good luck! ♥️

[@angelomartinez4616]

Thank you madam! Super ganda ng tutorials niyo

[@EzrhaGodilano]

Glad I could help! Thank you for watching!

[@yzabellevego8406]

Mashelpful pa to kesa sa Prof ko. Thank you po talaga!

[@EzrhaGodilano]

Yza Belle Vego You’re welcome! Feel free to share this with your friends and batch mates :)

[@sapsalingpusacattalkmaykwe1556]

Ty mam new follower

[@christianuy735]

i love you mam. you saved me for pmy presentation.

[@arthurjeromebalite3786]

Thank you po for this video.. helpful po sa work

[@alvincabela5066]

thank you po sa dami ng ni research ko kayo lang talaga naintindihan ko about this forecasting methods

[@EzrhaGodilano]

Thank you for your appreciation!

[@JohnnyJanceLTV]

Thank you ..napakahelpful po ito.now I know na pano po makuha Ang forecast

[@EzrhaGodilano]

Thank you for watching!

[@nicoleangeliquebabol8556]

thank you po, very helpful po sa ginagawa kong assignment ngayon ☺️

[@EzrhaGodilano]

You’re welcome! Thank you for watching! 🤗

[@miguelisip8122]

Thanks Ma'am.Ang galing po

[@EzrhaGodilano]

You’re welcome, and thank you!

[@user-ht4qe7lw9f]

Great video! Any book recommendations po regarding forecasting especially yung other method tulad ng ASL, AGC, SSL, at APC. Thank you.

[@maryangeline4814]

thankyou ppoooo

[@rhonelsecob3428]

Hello, can you help to answer this po? Which of the forecasting methods should be used for a short term planning and long-term planning?

[@charleschoa3825]

Hi Ms Ezrha, for seasonality method, possible ba to use average of last 2 data points? Like data 4 and 8 in your example, instead of just using 8?

[@EzrhaGodilano]

Hello! If seasonal yung method, we need to follow the peak periods. In this case, every 4 days may peak value, kaya sia naging seasonal. Then the forecast for the next season is the same value of the last season.

[@kunshilukas]

Great content! Can you please recommend a good book on this?

[@EzrhaGodilano]

Thank you for watching! My reference is Operations Management by Heizer and Render :)

[@christiangallegos6101]

Thank you po, helpful po to

[@EzrhaGodilano]

You’re welcome! Thank you for watching!

[@glifcleaningservices7129]

You make great video on forecasting techniques.... Subscribed and will recommend others too... Can you please make substitles for the same

[@EzrhaGodilano]

Thank you very much! Working on having the subtitles on these videos. :)

[@maricartejano497]

Hi I am just confuse in the exponential technique I cant seem to get on why the forecast output is 62 because I tried to compute I arrive at 65 something. Please enlighten me. Thank you

[@EzrhaGodilano]

Hello! I assume you are referring to the forecast for period 3. Just follow the formula. If you are on period 3, you should use the values from the previous period, period 2. The formula would be 60 + 0.4(65-60). 60 is the forecast for period 2 while 65 is the actual value for period 2. 0.4 is the alpha.

[@lanaknows]

Great vid, just one question, why is alpha for exponential smoothing 0.4?

[@EzrhaGodilano]

Lana Thanks! the value of the alpha is given in most problems. But for reference, if the forecast seems to be stable, or the data is stable, we use a lower value of alpha. If the data is not stable, say no historical data exists, we use a higher value of alpha. Exponential smoothing constant ranges from 0 to 1. Hope this helps!!

[@charleschoa3825]

@@EzrhaGodilano Does that mean that using a higher alpha for a "flat" data will over-estimate your forecasts? Added question: How "flat" is "flat"?

[@EzrhaGodilano]

Charles Choa Hello! As quoted from the book reference Principles of Operations Management by Heizer and Render, “choose high values of alpha when the underlying average is likely to change, and low values of alpha when underlying average is stable.” Improper use of alpha values may result to a higher forecast error.

[@lanaknows]

@@EzrhaGodilano Thank you so much for these answers, unfortunate that I didn't get a notification earlier hahah but still appreciate it! :)

[@EzrhaGodilano]

Lana you’re welcome!

[@erikapoblete4228]

Hi Miss Ezrha, what if sa problem, they didn't indicate the weighted average and its just the table. What are we gonna do to solve the weighted average?

[@EzrhaGodilano]

Hello! I think if walang weights na given in the problem, it will just be a moving average type of solution. You’ll just get the average for a specific time frame, like for 3 periods, or 4 periods :)

[@erikapoblete4228]

@@EzrhaGodilano thank you po, last for clarification lang. For 3 periods ( 0.5 , 0.3 & 0.2) and for 4 periods (0.1 , 0.2 , 0.3 & 0.4) tama po ba? Sorry po, for asking so much question 😢 self-based learning po kase yung way namin and yung prof namin quiz agad walang discussion

[@EzrhaGodilano]

No problem with asking :) No, you won’t assign weights. Just assume na it will follow a simple average format. Just get the average. You may message me via messenger so I can see the exact problem your professor gave as an example.

[@petinesjayvees.4418]

hi maam ezrha super helpful po ng video niyo.. ask ko lng po what if like sa seasonal example nio po ee iisa lng yung peak na pinakita like for example day 4 lng yung nagpakita ng peak sa buong data considered parin po ba as seasonal siya? and also napansin ko rin lng po sa example niyo sa seasonal variations na beside from the peaks shown sa data set, yung last four data numbers din po on the same data set keeps decreasing like from 28 to 18 to 16,14... does tht mean it can or might also fall into trend maam? ..thnks po/

[@EzrhaGodilano]

hi! thanks for watching! To answer your questions: 1. If one day lang (Day 4) shows peak, you’ll have to observe the entire data set on the behavior. It can still fall under stable or trend. 2. It depends on the behavior of the data. Once there is a consistent rise in values, showing peaks or dips, that’s seasonal. For better interpretations, you can create a graph of your data set to have a more visual observation of the data. Stable will most likely have a semi-straight line, or variability among data set is very minimal. Trend will most likely produce a line either going up or going down towards the tail, and Seasonal will show if there are constant peaks or dips in the graph. I hope this helps!

[@petinesjayvees.4418]

@@EzrhaGodilano thanks maam for clarify keep posting po malinaw po kasi kyo mag explain.more powers po,❤️❤️❤️

[@cristy6998]

Paano po pag given yung sales from January to December then we are asked by our teacher to forecast January sales using Naive Method.

[@EzrhaGodilano]

I discussed the Naïve method in the earlier part of the video :) Just observe the data set. If all data are close with each other, stable. If the tail is continuously increasing/decreasing, trend. If there are obvious peaks or dips in the data, that’s seasonal.

[@GGTESTIFY]

very clear can I suggest po na magkaroon ng CIE reviewers?

[@EzrhaGodilano]

Hello! Thank you for watching! That will be my next project :) Good luck with the review!

[@geraldalindajao446]

Ano po gamit nyo na software in showing this great visuals po?.. ang ganda po

[@EzrhaGodilano]

Hello! Thank you for the appreciation. I’m using Doceri for iPad for the screencast :)

[@christianflores9697]

Hello po! Paano po pag sa weighted moving average hindi given ung weights? BTW very helpful po ung video

[@EzrhaGodilano]

Hello! If weights are not given, you can treat it as just average method. It just means that weights are equal and negligible :)

[@sapsalingpusacattalkmaykwe1556]

So mam sa moving average for example sa cookies 3 moving average nya is 21, 18 and 17 so kukunin ung average 21+18+17=56

[@EzrhaGodilano]

Hi! Sa 3-period moving average, last 3 input data ang gagamitin. Divide by 3 pa po yung 56 sa example mo :)

[@sapsalingpusacattalkmaykwe1556]

ty po

[@karenclairepayabyab9281]

Hello po good afternoon, dun sa may part po na exponential smoothing, paano po kukunin yung sa period 6 ng number of complaints? thank you po

[@EzrhaGodilano]

Hi! Are you referring to the actual or forecast? If forecast for period 6, you can use the formula as stated in 25:02 along with the answer. If you are referring to the actual complaints, based in this problem, until period 5 lang yung given based on the book :)

[@karenclairepayabyab9281]

@@EzrhaGodilano thank you po

[@augustinejunior3361]

I don't understand the mixing of language in this video. However, i got the point

[@abadijuanita2361]

I will appreciate it, if you can teach this topic in English completely

[@EzrhaGodilano]

Thank you for watching! I am working on putting subtitles on my bilingual videos. :)

[@MegaZECAPETA]

please put the subtitles

[@EzrhaGodilano]

thank you for watching! Will try to explore the means of putting subtitles on the videos :)

[@andreamaevallescas9732]

hi maam! paano po macompute ang actual demand?

[@EzrhaGodilano]

Hi! Given ang actual demand, forecast ang computed using the formula :)

[@andreamaevallescas9732]

@@EzrhaGodilano pinapahanap po kasi samin din yung actual demand sa last po eh kahit sa tingin ko po na given lang siya

[@kasturiamanibintinorhidzam5483]

really hope you can speak English fully next time :'), it was such a good video but cant fully understand due to the language.

[@EzrhaGodilano]

Thank you for watching! I can translate parts that are not clear if you want. I’ll try to put it subtitles next time. :)

[@jessicasubel1593]

The video was great but the issue is you didn't take into consideration those that doesn't understand your language. At some point I couldn't comprehend what you were saying due to moving in and out of English.

[@timixx2270]

Why does she need to say the most important thing in her language? I can't understand it. So annoying whe people start in English and carries on in a different language like Indians do normally or mixing it. After 5 minutes I had enough and left I couldn't watch it. Shame because it sounded as a good explanation

[@EzrhaGodilano]

Sorry, the video was initially meant for my Filipino students years back. If you want to clarify the part you did not understand, I can translate it for you.