Nassim Nicholas Taleb on the Pandemic 7/27/20

[@aprilized]

my favorite "get off my lawn!!" philosopher/economist

[@mysteriouslystoic76]

My favorite EconTalk episode so far this year. Love NNT. Thanks, Russ!

[@econtalkwithruss]

Thank YOU, Amber!

[@skc909887u]

Finally NNT and Russ clearly articulated the idea of the mean in the fat tails. I just came from a uni presentation where the policy maker said she and other policy makers were waiting for proof to advise on government on Masks . I was nearly in tears

[@VangelVe]

Why? The literature shows that the masks do not work.

[@garyvlahos635]

Both NNT and Russ are clearly not familiar with “studies” which have demonstrated that the wearing of masks did little to stop the spread of certain air-borne or droplet communicable diseases .

[@VangelVe]

@@garyvlahos635 Agreed. Which is strange given the fact that both are sceptical of official data and pronouncements. They clearly know that economists are full of crap but trust 'experts' in other fields.

[@dumbo.4608]

@@VangelVe I don't agree with all of what NNT says, but heres what (i think) is is rationale for this. NNT talks a lot about that in incerto. certain fields are chaotic and unpredictable, like economics, others are much "easier" to understand and predict, like physics. another factor that helps create reliable experts is whether or not their theories are testable and whether or not they're held accountable for their actions. physics and science heavily favor provable theories, and even then, they're always aware that they may be wrong and never act with overconfidence. it's harder to be rigorous in medicine as the human body is very complex, but doctors are held accountable for their actions. if you are a fake in the medical world, lives will be lost and very soon your career will be too. NNT argues that many of these criteria are not present in economics, and so the experts there cant be as easily trusted.

[@VangelVe]

@@dumbo.4608 But that is the issue. The models used to scare people into destroying the economy were fake. Much of the reporting is fake because people who die of stage 4 cancer are said to be dying of the virus. Doctors violate the principles that they learned in their epidemiology and statistics courses. They even lied about the effectiveness of treatments so that they could promote fear. Taleb needs to step back and think more clearly. There is a reason why trees are green rather than black. And there is a reason why our species is still here.

[@nikoisfun]

Hello! Thank you! I enjoyed this one!

[@johnanderson2654]

precautinary principle at 38:00 from an old trader. It's nice to get advice from people who aren't full of Scheiss!

[@ethanoyamawang]

wow econ talk is on youtube awesome!

[@davidgunsberg2475]

This was an excellent and informative episode, I don;t usually come to the KZbin but was worth it to see the graphs.

[@HardikBhakhar]

I am obsessed with this mind.

[@CJinsoo]

At 57:50 excellent summary of recommendations for the Next pandemic.

[@ayazpalekar1575]

Am I the only one who chuckled at, "...and the first volume is out"?

[@yoja5on]

Let him talk Russ!

[@ChrisMeisenzahl]

This is so great, thx

[@ptf55]

Wow! Thank you.

[@OliverDamian]

I'm loving the video add-on. Some of my notes: The risk of ruin vs the risk of variation. I first need to survive. There systemic risks to be avoided that then allow me to take other risks elsewhere. Unlike other risks, the collective risk from infectious diseases doesn't scale linearly from individual risk. If I don't pay attention, the risk will be higher for everyone else. If we both wear masks perhaps we're not just reducing the risk of infection by p but by p². If we reduce viral load, perhaps we're reducing infection of others as much as 99%. Pandemics are existential risks. Pandemics have multiplicative risks. Others like dying from drowning in swimming pools are Chernoff bound (non-multiplicative). Rationality does not scale. People doing the right thing may not look rational. Pandemics are the fattest tail of them all. They got to be nipped at the bud. If we don't know if masks work, the more we should wear them. When there's uncertainty in the system it makes decisions much easier. Science is not about evidence. Science is about properties of stuff which may or may not include forecasts. Science is about describing a process. Rigorous science includes computation of asymmetries. Science is not accounting. Science is about understanding phenomena.

[@garyvlahos635]

This virus was most certainly NOT an existential risk, and we knew this well before lockdown ... Your hyperbole is disquieting

[@harrytwig4963]

If we wear masks that don`t meant what we are in security. Wash hands, don`t touch eyes, nose and lips. It`s rules of self-security and this can really help you to be security

[@angelozachos8777]

HYPERBOLIC DRIVEL 👎

[@thetagang6854]

This is gold. Thanks for this

[@eniac78]

Great interviewer and great thinker.

[@micahpiper1898]

Great discussion.

[@designedcompany]

Good point on authenticity towards the end.

[@MafazaSPutra]

Relieved to see this comment section isn't filled by a bunch of conspiracists. Love this video btw!

[@Brandon-tg7dl]

Why not allow Taleb to name drop? That's when he is at his best!

[@quant2011]

You mean like to name Rothschilds as architects of: financial slavery via fiat money and usury, political system with Epsteins as key players, mass media of lies and deception and finally the key warmongers igniting wars all over the world?

[@pedrogorilla483]

The guy is constantly afraid that Nassim Taleb will talk shit about somebody.

[@jayjohnson9787]

Wonderful discussion...thank you gentlemen for the intellectual exploration...one point I think many are missing is that much of the resistance to mask use is based on the people making the request/demand. While the act of wearing a mask is clinically appropriate it is distasteful to do so when squalid imbeciles are making the request/demand...even though the request/demand is a good idea.

[@AnerLucero]

Maybe the banner could be smaller as it blocks some part of Taleb's screen.

[@RussRoberts1759]

I can't see what you are seeing. I don't see it blocking his screen.

[@AnerLucero]

@@RussRoberts1759 31:17 But it was just a suggestion. You can see the page well but only a small portion of the video on the right.

[@egobambi6763]

Russ Roberts I noticed the same

[@Misuci]

at 1:00:00 there is an unfinished (incomplete) discussion about the elderly population. I think that subject remained a TABOO in this conversation... Geronticide / Gerontocracy... kzbin.info/www/bejne/aZbGpHhjmauMoc0 Russ Roberts on Adam Smith All Wikipedia..... A gerontocracy is a form of oligarchical rule in which an entity is ruled by leaders who are significantly older than most of the adult population. The ancient Greeks were among the first to believe in this idea of gerontocracies; as famously stated by Plato "it is for the elder man to rule and for the younger to submit".[1] However, these beliefs are not unique to ancient Greece, as many cultures still subscribe to this way of thinking. Often these political structures are such that political power within the ruling class accumulates with age, making the oldest the holders of the most power. Those holding the most power may not be in formal leadership positions, but often dominate those who are. In a simplified definition, a gerontocracy is a society where leadership is reserved for elders.[2] The best example of this can be seen in the ancient Greek city state of Sparta, which was ruled by a Gerousia. A Gerousia was a council made up of members who were at least 60 years old and served for life. Senicide, or geronticide, is the killing of the elderly, or their abandonment to death. Pythagorean doctrine held that all creatures were being punished by the gods who imprisoned the creatures' souls in a body. Thus, any attempt to alter this punishment would be seen as a direct violation of the gods' wills.[1] In the fourth century BC, the Hippocratic Oath was developed and reads, "I will not give a fatal draught to anyone if I am asked, nor will I suggest any such thing."[2] Through the lens of the Hippocratic Oath, euthanasia by means of a fatal draught was forbidden. However, one of the most famous examples of deviation from this code occurred when the physician of Seneca, a philosopher and tutor of Nero, provided the scholar, who was 69 years old at the time, with poison for one of his many failed attempts at suicide. The societies of antiquity viewed suicide and euthanasia very differently from modern culture. Although factors such as better medical and psychological insight have affected contemporary society's view of suicide and euthanasia, much of the shift in opinion of these forms of death occurred because of the change in religion-that is, Greco-Roman society was dominated by pagan religions that did not categorically condemn suicide and euthanasia. Many modern Christians do not accept the practice of suicide or senicide, holding that only God should have control over a person's life and death.[3]

[@DiogoVKersting]

Awesome episode!

[@f4ll3nkn1ght]

"what do you think we should have done in january?" buy some puts, of course

[@philzberg]

This respiratory virus is unusual in that it is extremely infectious especially among the vulnerable. It appears that among the great number of people the virus is visible to the natural immune system this is why most people who catch it have very few symptoms, even if they are positive on a PCR test. One aspect of immunity is memory immunity to similar viruses. Is it possible that catching the virus now could provide protection later if a more lethal version of the virus emerged? In other words, is there at least a possibility that continued wearing a mask might be detrimental to the objective of minimizing the damage of the epidemic. Also it is summertime, and vitamin D levels are high. According to the NHS over 90% of people who have died from the virus or severely vitamin D deficient. If masks delayed the acquiring of immunity during high vitamin D3 summertime months, could the widespread wearing of masks now in the summertime actually create greater problems when there are more vulnerable people in the winter time? It seems that even Nasim can make the air of certainty

[@jchvatal1]

I agree with Taleb on many things and have learned a lot from him, but I would have to agree with Russ more on what this pandemic has taught us for the future. Taleb asserts that "we will be more ready" for the next pandemic and will do better in the future and I fundamentally disagree. I think when the next one comes and it is more virulent and more lethal, people will be LESS likely to want to comply. Irrationality scales exponentially and people only have a certain tolerance for distancing for so long. Many will look at this situation and say that we distanced and still ended up with the results we got and a number of people will be less likely to want to follow these protocols in the future.

[@natehatfield2262]

Talib say we learn from our ancestors and the wisdom of their parables. Here is one; The Boy Who Cried Wolf

[@voyeurn3]

26:41 What name did Russ mention? ( past econ talk guest)

[@RussRoberts1759]

John Ioannidis

[@voyeurn3]

@@RussRoberts1759 Thank your Professor Roberts.

[@AshAlmighty123]

Why does this God speak with us mere mortals?

[@mbican]

6:05 "few understand this" - taleb

[@newworldforward1842]

Your channel has lots of videos 1-3 minutes long. There's no way I'll ever subscribe to a channel like that. I'm fine with listening to Nassim for an hour.

[@econtalkwithruss]

We do have clips of most episodes... But also every FULL episode. Just skip the clips. If you browse by Playlist you can avoid them entirely. Thanks for listening!

[@newworldforward1842]

@@econtalkwithruss No, I won't have them clogging up my channel inbox. I abhor subscribing to channels with a few minute clips. Keep them to yourself!

[@tripp8833]

Good episode

[@andrzejandrzejos6674]

0:05 I don't know if just saing that mr. Taleb is philosopher and an author is enough though

[@andrzejandrzejos6674]

0:56 lol unnecessarily

[@molson77]

Thanks for explaining the moral imperative of reducing the risks that are intrinsic to pandemics.

[@crucialRob]

46:44 last 4 !

[@legnasiul91]

I am not from a mediterranean society, but from Mexico. The leadership against the epidemic in my country would be better managed by a mule instead of a guy who argues against wearing masks because it does not have "scientific evidence" in favor of wearing it. Thanks for this interview.

[@ctrzcinka]

Good discussion but the degree of the "fat tail" is important. These arguments were persuasive in Jan -Feb but now? Now we know far more about treating Covid and about who is affected and who is not. Just shutting down the economy has huge costs. The Great Barrington Distribution is persuasive that we need to be more open.

[@gomertube]

You were right.

[@kaleedtayfour6728]

this is surreal, my mind cant connect the video to the voice hahaha

[@bheblynn]

So basically if i understand this is an interview where a thinker is trying to explain a worldwide plandemic given the keywords "antifragile", "convexity", "fat tail" and "stupid people"

[@Eman_Puedama]

I've decided not to watch this because from the comments it seems he doesn't get quite how fraudulent it's all been, and having only just really discovered him this morning, I'm highly impressed. I'll stick to catching up with his earlier thoughts for now, and with luck, by the time I have, he'll have caught on a bit more.

[@joanroth8594]

Great potential here, but many unfinished ideas. Mr. Taleb knows more in his head than he is able to easily articulate....perhaps English is not his first language. The lockdowns were harmful both to people and economy (though some did better). I think Taleb is advocating quarantining the sick (as humans have been for thousands of years) instead of locking down the healthy. The healthy should wear masks and use technology to lower risk taking. This is one of my takeaways....sensible. Regarding visiting Mother....why not quarantine yourself after the plane ride? We need to pin down whether 14 days is really the right number.

[@rick15666]

That Plantronics headset sounds like complete shit. Reminds me of the sound quality of the mic that shipped with our Compaq desktop from 1996. It would pass if he were currently on the international space station, guess I’ll pretend that’s where he’s at, using a virtual bookshelf background to be ironic.

[@stephenl9463]

The interviewer needs to take a course in listening. As another poster said N tried multiple times to explain the importance of 1,000 dead but interviewer was completely absent. With an expert statistician like Taleb, you should have listened so maybe you could learn something you hadn’t heard before. With that said the little he could get out before interruption was very informative. To many of ignorant commenters in this forum, the ones that continue to see this as a ‘flu’ - This interview was about 1 month ago at which time deaths from COVID as mentioned by Taleb was 500,000. One month later as I write this there are 813,000. A major point of a fat tail is that it’s exponential growth and relative to the size of the base. So in the last month the pandemic deaths have accelerated. And forecasting as we learned is not possible. But the protocol is simple. Wear a mask, stay away from large gatherings, accept quarantines.

[@truedreams1]

In the Swedish birthday song you sing: May he live a hundred years, but if he lives for a hundred years then he will be put in a chariot and pushed off a cliff. 😃

[@CJinsoo]

At 54:00 "Now we know how to handle it" Ummm, I don't have much faith in that comment. It seems that the only thing that was learned, is how to hone political angles.

[@gianlucalepiscopia3123]

You want to read otium as ozium, not otium

[@Disaletteritis]

Ócio in Portuguese that came from Latin

[@PhilosophyofArtandScience]

jiujitsu, and fighting writ large, is suffering as an industry

[@BadHomeowner]

I wish the guy on the right would quit interrupting

[@noelhoig541]

Good job, man! Take your Vitamin D, 5000 iu per day! Thanks!

[@peteroleary9447]

Early on, NNT was rabid on masks but has softened somewhat lately. His precautionary principle says 'it's better to mistake a stick for a snake than a snake for a stick'. Maybe he's realizing that covid19 is more stick than snake, and considering the evidence for effectiveness of masks to be extraordinarily weak.

[@YossarianUSA]

At 3:40 Taleb says that we now know the pandemic is a "small thing:" kzbin.info/www/bejne/oWazqoqCe89ki68&feature=emb_title Yet he still won't alter his precautionary principle stance even though "risk of ruin" is off the table.

[@justinskaggs9751]

But at what point is it no longer a problem worth shutting down and imposing draconian measures for? The people for voluntary masking and such are also arguing on the "grandma's principle" but ot a different end, namely that if they let their government impose unending restrictions on their basic behavior, that their freedoms and even their form of government is facing a serious survival risk, not to mention the tribe facing economic ruin and it's geopolitical power in favor of governments good at covering things up (China....)

[@justinskaggs9751]

I agree with him that early on we should have had abundant caution, but really, by April/May this thing had played itself out in the real world in countries like Sweden, and we damn well know that this virus does not risk our survival, and is in the range or a little higher than a severe flu. I wish he would elaborate on what actually happened, rather than talking so much on how he was right that we should have been cautious early.

[@YossarianUSA]

@@justinskaggs9751 I commented as much above. NNT applying Precautionary Principle way longer than warranted by the real world circumstances since at 3:40 he calls this pandemic a "small thing." No risk of ruin!: kzbin.info/www/bejne/oWazqoqCe89ki68&feature=emb_title

[@casamurphy]

Russ, It irritated me to observe you being a poor listener between minutes 40 and 50. Nassim attempted many times to explain to you what measures should be taken for every outbreak that kills more than 1000 people and why that number is recommended, but you kept interrupting him and asking other non-focused questions and making comments until finally you ask "why was this time different?" which was only more irritating since back around minute 40 Nassim made a major point that it was NOT different -- which you totally missed.

[@michaelengel3045]

Prof. Taleb : will the Beirut blast start a pandemic.

[@williamtaylor5193]

All masks are not created equal. Compared with bacteria, a virus is 1/2 to 1/20th the size, so cloth masks may not be as effective as N-95 masks at preventing contamination.

[@prabhanshurajpoot7419]

Guess what Mr. Scientist. Virus comes out of our breath which is in form of aerosol. Tiny water droplets which have virus in them. Those droplets are large enough to be stopped by a mask. Forget mask, just a cotton bandana is enough (might be better).

[@williamtaylor5193]

@@prabhanshurajpoot7419 I was paraphrasing another scientist I heard recently. Are you a scientist?

[@diogosesimbra]

He sure is wise but he Is terrible at verbalizing ideas. His pop books are long-winded and erratic. And his technical material, as far as I could tell, are not self-contained. Meaning you need to have a very specific background to understand all he is trying to express. He both doesn't explain and doesn't tell you what you need to understand what he is expressing.

[@carlwilson8859]

Taleb is a bit difficult to follow but Roberts' continual (and mostly stupid) interruptions are intolerable.

[@newworldforward1842]

I get the feeling Nassim is getting paid by someone. I never felt that way about him before. Did he pay some price to someone for getting rescued from the US war in Iraq?

[@RowanTE]

Wtf? What does NNT have to do with Iraq? He has a Christian Lebanese background and lives in NYC...

[@newworldforward1842]

@@RowanTE So you don't think he's getting paid?? Or? I was just speculating... He's not the same man I used to listen to. He was a very independent and free thinker earlier. Something is off about him lately.

[@RowanTE]

He doesn’t need the money, I think people are getting their knickers in a knot about nothing. He’s a fallible human, he’s going to get things wrong. It’s ok to disagree with what he’s saying in this video without invoking corruption on his part.

[@RowanTE]

Same with so much Covid-19 related, you don’t need conspiracies to explain what has happened. It’s lots of fucking up, arse covering, hubris, arrogance, and to the need to feel like someone is in control. Thank fuck this virus wasn’t so bad, if it really was an event like the 1918 flu it would have been carnage, and I think Taleb is trying to point that out here.

[@newworldforward1842]

@@RowanTE Yes, but politicians are really grabbing all the power they can get and exploiting the situation. We need to keep them in check or they'll run amok with totalitarian measures.

[@rishabhsharma6763]

Taleb is probably a mathematical genius but an extremely poor orator, some might say the former is more valuable, but I don’t entirely agree.

[@mrenovatio3739]

It would be great for someone to put his ideas in a more accesible format

[@Alex_Plante]

I once saw one of his French-language presentations, and he is a lot more fluent and clear in French than in English.

[@guykruger1]

I don't think one can say either is "more important"... (and I agree with you that he's not a very good orator)

[@wapphigh5250]

NT you talk about the benefit of double masks and N95 say travelling on a aircraft but you do realise the problems here of a beard?

[@Ggeorgiev89]

Is this a theology lecture? Science is not about empiricism. It's just an understanding. 🎅🐱

[@mbican]

Science is nothing but empiricism

[@kingzion3032]

He is smarter than the average person but that does not make him smart. Smart is relative. I could argue against him and go back and forth and eventually I would find flaws in most his ideas. He has very few original ideas.

[@kingzion3032]

He is so wrong on this. I assure you all reading that by 2022 this pandemic will be gone and never to return until the next grand plan.

[@stewartfry8000]

COVID is not a deadly disease.

[@ArmonMitchell]

Russ Roberts is one of the lowest forms of life (to this day he still cant understand what Martin Shkreli, Daraprim, did that was so wrong)....but he does have some of the better interviews

[@hilarywade687]

I normally agree with Taleb, but I think he's wrong on the economics here. The cheapest thing you can do about covid is not to wear a mask. It is to get plenty of sunlight (vitamin D) and stop eating processed sugar (comorbidities). Both of these cost nothing, or even save you money, whereas a mask costs money and also imposes an environmental cost.

[@gnikrehposolihp]

N.T. may be sound on many issues, but on the issue of covid risk and masks, he is out to lunch. Obviously, he hasn't been following all of the science. Both he and Russ are engaged in irrational conversation on this topic; may have something to do with their ages. I will stick to more informed, rational minded scientists thank you. Sorry, have to down-vote this discussion. Ugh

[@bishalkhadka1301]

Hello sir. Could you just please elaborate just a little. You don't have to explain everything just some key points. Thank you.

[@tripp8833]

“All of the science” huh? All of the science supports what they’re saying. Where are the rational , informed scientists you’re talking about? Fox News hosts? Lol

[@bishalkhadka1301]

@@tripp8833 what did the Fox news host say Tucker was probably the first one to warn about the virus in main stream media.

[@barbariansbarbarians7062]

Elobarate

[@danielb9625]

Are you here to signal your scientism virtues or to provide meaningful information?