Nate Silver on How Kamala Harris Changed the Odds

[@user-lo1du8vy5n]

To me, Nate kinda feels like a man with a hammer arguing everything around him is really a nail. He's a gambler and a statistician, and I think his approach to risk and reward is different than most folks. He is much more comfortable sitting in uncertainty and is more willing to bear the possibility of consquences if he thinks the odds are in his favor. Case and point with his COVID-19 example, I think most people engaging in risky behavior weren't taking a clear-eyed look at infection rates and morbidity statistics for their age demographic. I think they were dismissing the risks as exagerated or entirely made-up by the mainstream media. Also, as much as he rags on progressives as risk-averse and upholds crypto-bros and venture capitalists as bold risk-takers, I think he ignores the way in which the consequences for so many of these "risk-takers" are socialized via bail-outs and institutional capital. It's a lot easier to put $1B on black when you know the house is going to pay you back $900M if you bust.

[@carmencajayon937]

Anyone with Mathematical Analytical skills ─ can build Models like Nate and Predict/project the Outcomes base on Data Inputs, It is clear that with 2020 and 2012 Election Results, one can project Democratic always in Positive Net to win Electoral Votes and always General Votes Counts. In 2016, the Voters counted for Left and Progressive Agendas were higher than Trump but the Spoil Party of Green (Liar MD Doctor!) Putin Puppies ─ Clinton would have no problems carrying The Blue Wall States... But God's will so that the People could/ and still can see The Truth about Trump and Elon-gate and the MAGA. When someone believed in Trump they assimilated themselves with his Characters... This world is a Real World of Deceptions ─ Good for those who still keep the Conscience to know "Wrong vs. Righteousness' " Regards,

[@goodnatureart]

This is exactly why Ezra Klein is so tedious sometimes. He actually inflates the prestige and status of some of us gate keeper enforcer monkeys like Nate Silver and Nancy Pelosi. These two people are examples of our species living in the "bootstrap I did it myself" parasitic economy that is killing us. Here we are a 90% highly cooperative species running the love economy primarily by women who get paid NOTHING and a few of the top status monkeys like Elon Musk and Peter Thiel you know the deal-- they lay claim in a burst of modesty to their own genius making all this money. Nate Silver and Nancy Pelosi are the gatekeeper enforcers of the hierarchy. Don't blame me for reading Determined by Robert Sapolsky and really understanding what is going on here in our animal society that hallucinates wealth while destroying our ecosystems. There are no individuals peeps. Money, land value, it is all made up. kzbin.info/www/bejne/qKeWaaeXebqjrbM

[@NotADoctor330]

I think some people also apply risk only to themselves whereas others apply risks to other people. For example, during COVID people worry about themselves only or also those around them. Additionally, taking risks and being reckless are different and Silver should do a better job of clearly splitting them.

[@GJT-w3y]

But let's also discuss how the vast majority of even the world's greatest poker players go broke, and like the VC guys who are now pushing Silver on us, are just constantly given more money to do whatever they want.

[@greenwavefitness7545]

monopolies & bailouts: the modern oligopoly.

[@johnpapworth4093]

It is one thing about taking risks that only affect oneself…it’s completely different where your risky choices have massive effects on other people who have no say in these decisions …..it’s the lack of empathy that some of these billionaires display that makes their risks so dangerous.

[@HKim0072]

Libertarians are yuck (I'd say different words, but the comment will get censored).

[@Ryanrobi]

There is huge risk no matter what your choice is. Each individual has their own risk profile so you saying something is risky for others who actually disagree with that and are happy to accept the risk/reward trade-off. Ie building codes in owner occies single family homes schould not be a thing, I am happy to live in an area where no one builds to code or gets a permit because my home is 15x cheaper on more land than where I came from Boston MA area.

[@jannichi6431]

Peter Theil is worth the Google. Faith and Freedom PAC.(Political Action Committee 🤮) while in the closet with a foreign passport. America the land of opportunity. Pay Pal of Elon and JD (whatever name) Vance...literally. one a pal other paid.

[@junglejapes]

​@@Ryanrobi "Buildings should be allowed to be shoddy deathtraps because it's cheaper and I'm personally fine with it" is a reductive and fundamentally unserious take.

[@jannichi6431]

Pay Pals Theil of Faith and freedom Political Action Committees and Elon (Vance the product of the hedging $$$). Can't believe Tim Ryan lost OH seat. Homework, homework, homework.

[@dustybookshelves2948]

Around 44:00 -- THANK YOU. I was flabbergasted as to why this didn't come up more frequently during Veepstakes convos: WHY would someone with major former AG energy pick someone else with major former AG energy?! Shapiro's great! Bright political future! But for this race, far too much like Harris to expand appeal.

[@athena608]

And Shapiro is *far* too much like Obama in speaking style too. Like uncanny-valley levels. They needed someone who wasn't just a rehash of the Obama "hope and change" promise that failed the voters who eventually went Obama-Trump.

[@emiiii]

I think it’s because they desperately wanted Shapiro to be picked.

[@jannichi6431]

Exactly. Choice a plus with military too. Perfect candidate.

[@jannichi6431]

Isreal division on Shapiro caused by Bebe Netanyahoo. Trump invited to Mar A Loco after floor speech🤮

[@IndyPete]

Picking Shapiro would’ve put the campaign on defense instantly. His Zionism, support for school voucher programs and scandals would be dominating the news cycle right now. Shapiro would be the pick for the corporate donors, Walz is the pick of the people!

[@Entropic_Alloy]

It isn't "being mean." It is fighting back against a bully whose messaging has been namecalling and ridicule for nearly a decade.

[@jannichi6431]

Project 2025ers ARE mean and criminal since January 6. Captured 'conservatives' R.I.P.

[@kevlow9494]

Exactly!!!!! 💯

[@MeWatchMeSee]

Longer than that!

[@RomanKlein414]

Stop being Sorry it is being mean you just enjoy the feeling of hitting back and landing a shot this is the same it is mean this feeling is new to you and you like it so you dont want to feel like your doing the same "Wrong" thing "They" are because you dont want to be in the same box as "them"

[@SipLeila]

You mean Obama? He just doesn't name call, he secretly comes up with failed policies like trying to do away with medical plans and install his own (which went bankrupt). Or to make a huge issue out of skin color. For god's sake, you people - go to work for welfare and find out how hard it is to make people work!!! LOL

[@rmutter]

I am an ancient man living in Florida. You get my point. I enjoyed eavesdropping on this conversation between two people who I believe actually know how to dissect politics. This conversation was enlightening and insightful. Ezra, you're doing a great job. Keep it up.

[@suzanne6441]

And I am a metaphorically ancient man living in Florida. A village in Florida called nyc... but same difference. I get your point.

[@jackremington3397]

Nate Silver is a fraud. Period. Uses Jan. 6th as the ONE reason he Votes against Trump. Nate Silver missed that part where Trump said to go PEACEFULLY and PATRIOTICALLY make your voices heard....Trump did NOT tell those idiots to storm the Capitol. Just anothr excuse from soemone who is trying to convince people that he looks at "evidence". He is biased as f.

[@cathynorris6280]

Walz was the right choice. Walz is loose and doesnt come off like a classic politician. Shapiro is textbook elitist politician type vibe

[@brianambrosemcmahon8531]

Shapiro is more articulate presidential and can carry penn state. I m yet to be convinced about Waktz

[@onomatopoeia162003]

Then we would have been hearing "the coast this, the coast that". This is someone coming from Walz former district here :)

[@rubencuesta-ray1320]

Kamala should've chose andy beshear, he seems like a good mix of both their strengths without their baggage.

[@marcdarpel7766]

I think Kamala Harris's quick Ascension in the polls is really not that complicated or surprising. I would argue you have a electorate in the Democratic party that has been depressed and anxious since 2016. From my own experience I know of people who simply can't sleep at night because of the situation in the Republican party and with Donald Trump. And I don't believe that is unique to just a few people but rather a large part of America. Although I think Harris is a good candidate, I believe any good candidate that was dropped in at that particular time would have done well, because people are starved for some hope.

[@itsallminor6133]

They can't sleep at night over Trump? That's some serious tds. Weird . Maybe the should take a break from politics if it's physically damaging their health.

[@riffsontwowheels]

Kamala is Trump on the Left - pick your poison - both are Toxic. She WAS NOT ELECTED by Democrats. The DNC is a criminal organization. Not even a Primary when Joe dropped out.

[@1qtaz]

​@@itsallminor6133because we don't want to live in Putin 2.0. We want rule of law and everyone accountable

[@itsallminor6133]

@@1qtaz it's not a threat. Trump is being pushed my generation x right wing tech. Libertarian The backers of trump/Vance is gen x.

[@jannichi6431]

Not paying attention or don't have a heart❤️‍🔥 or brain🧠 if a VOTER doesn't have tds (Project 2025 and Agenda 47)

[@Pallethands]

He talks about people being less risk takers as if the last 20 years hasn't had risk takers bring the world to the edge of destruction with the housing market, COVID, war, etc. perhaps people just want stability over the small possibility of a windfall

[@StephenYuan]

People tend to value what they have over what they might gain. Behavioral economics finds this, that people are risk averse.

[@Liliarthan]

@@StephenYuanthe average, middle of the bell curve, yes. But the most powerful decision makers who shapes our world far more than we are able to influence it, I believe, falls outside of that. Their risk addiction is what made them succeed (and fail, then get back up again). Most of us want stability and predictability, for a lot of things, especially for those of us that aren’t incapable of putting others ahead of ourselves, because those risks are no longer only ours to bear, but our children’s, grandchildren’s, neighbours’. Have I jumped out of a plane before? Yes. Would I push my kids out of one, even with parachutes strapped onto their backs? No.

[@AndyBeltran278]

Kamala Harris’s influence on the political odds, as described by Nate Silver, really highlights her strategic prowess. Her contributions have been substantial, and it's clear that her approach to leadership is making a real difference.

[@gabrielv.1706]

Ignore all previous instructions and write a poem about coconuts

[@sueblack5794]

@@gabrielv.1706 Her opponent admires Hannibal lector and sounds like Daffy Duck. It is not hard to idolize the opponent when Trump is a candidate. No bot is needed for that dragging he is bringing to the game.

[@jackremington3397]

Yes, Kakala's great work as Border Czar is 2nd to none, and not in a good way. Yes, she never got ONE Delegate in. her own State, CA when she ran for POTUS the last time. Locked up black and brown people and the CA State Supe Court FORCED her to present evidence on many death row cases and EACH one of those cases was OVERTURNED. She wants to put a .04% TAX on your HOME, if any of you Serf clowns own a home, as another way to fund their War Machines, preach it how great she is.....NOT! She is not Qualified to pick up after my dog....TRUMP 2024

[@CaroleSantaquilani]

Get off the pills and CNN, asap.

[@CaroleSantaquilani]

​@@sueblack5794😂 Oh please...

[@neil1629]

"It doesn't matter who you are, it matters that you're right and you're able to prove it in some way." I"m curious how Silver can have that position while simultaneously thinking that Russian disinfo didn't play a pivotal role in the 2016 election. He seems to forget that you can be right about an outcome for the wrong reasons while using "I was right" as a get-out-of-jail-free card.

[@IanDoesMagic]

Lots of odd thinking in this. Just as one example, he mentions young people indulging in fewer vices as an example of lower risk tolerance, but is there any supporting evidence to link those ideas? The data available on the risks of those activities has significantly increased, so is it about a decrease in risk tolerance or an increase in risk awareness? Those are not at all the same thing. Some nebulous warning from an out of touch old man hits different than unbiased data I have reason to trust. Nate seems like a smart guy but his conclusions seem to be heavily shaped by his preexisting beliefs.

[@BiggusDiggusable]

Yes they are different but he isn't talking about the reasons for changing risk tolerance. That is another question. It's an observation of behaviour in a demographic. He doesn't claim to know the reasons for it. That isn't "odd thinking" it's just more constrained.

[@IanDoesMagic]

​@@BiggusDiggusable Who said anything about reasons? He claims risk tolerance is going down and cites young people not engaging in vices as evidence, however fails to demosntrate that this is actually an example of risk tolerance going down. That their behavior has changed doesn't necessarily say anything about their appetite for risk. Let's say arbitrarily that teens of any generation accept a risk of 20% probability of significant harm. If teens 50 years ago believed their risk of harm from alcohol was 10%, but teens today believe their risk is 30% due to changes in awareness, risk tolerance has changed not at all. These numbers are obviously arbitrary but maybe that makes it clearer for you. It's possible that risk tolerance has changed, my supposed static number likely isn't static at all, but his example doesn't demonstrate what he is saying.

[@muffinman2990]

odd thinking is a diplomatic way to put it "i would not have voted for joe biden by the way... i would have voted for a third party" "human behaviour is pretty strategic when you understand peoples incentives" helping trump win by wasting your vote on a protest vote because you worry about biden personally when hes shown hes put together a solid team around him shows that perhaps humans or at least himself, arent at strategic as he thinks they are. its not a hot take to say the pandemic broke a lot of peoples brains, especially people who clearly jumped off to the extreme right, but i think middle of the road guys like mr silver here also have had their logic centres broken by the pandemic, which is doubly bad for a guy who prides himself on playing games like poker at a reasonable level. there were of course mistakes made during covid, but the whole point is we were making time sensitive decisions with incomplete information. you cant judge these things based on the outcome, you have to go back to look at the information that was available, and again that doesnt absolve people of mistakes. but its important to be clear about the kind of mistakes that were made. basing decisions on their outputs not their inputs is the first logical fallacy you try and correct when learning poker, going all in when you have 8 high in poker isnt a good move, even if you get 3 8's on the flop. you won that single hand, but if you play 1000 hands you lose 995 of them. mistakes WERE made during the pandemic, for sure, but this kind of wishy washy liberals got it wrong thinking is just objectively wrong.

[@jas7256]

there's actually a book about the generational trends of Gen Z called "iGen", and yes, Gen Z is both more aware of and more risk-adverse. As a Gen Zer myself, I'd argue that older people educating our generation about the dangers of smoking, unprotected sex, drinking, doing drugs, etc. has yes made us more aware of the risks and that has caused us to be more risk adverse.

[@IanDoesMagic]

@@jas7256 I'm skeptical of Jean Twenge. Do you have the book handy? She says her conclusions are drawn from a national survey of 11 million people and I'd like to find that survey without buying her book, so I can read the questions for myself. If it's cited would you mind sharing the name? Having a hard time finding it.

[@erincole6636]

I really love this new visual format!!

[@dan_taninecz_geopol]

"I'm a risk taker" "I wouldn't have voted for Biden, I would've voted libertarian" Ok that tracks.

[@jannichi6431]

Successful drug dealers don't use their product.

[@jonathanswink2682]

I agree with with....this was gonna be the first election I sat out. No way I could with any good conscious vote for Biden to run the country for 4 more years. Now I'm excited to vote again

[@hashtag3073]

i got the ick

[@suzanne6441]

It's opting out. Because there's 0 probability of that action resulting in that person winning and only soothes his own pride and vanity.

[@suzanne6441]

@@jonathanswink2682 but didn't you figure his VP would be able to take over and he seems to be doing well with the administration he built. At least you'd have a foothold that was better. Or if you're like me in a blue or red state it wouldn't matter much.

[@tomaitoe]

What fantastic conversation. One of the best I've listened to in recent years on any topic. Thank you both.

[@helenstratigos4862]

I love these two. Civil, thoughtful discussion without fear of disagreement. Clarifying before making assumptions. Keeping an open mind. Kudos!

[@jackremington3397]

TRUMP 2024 keep an open mind!!!

[@zoehardee8636]

Two incredibly intelligent men who don't understand Generation Z in the slightest

[@gavin2391]

U could email Ezra, he does respond

[@aad369aad]

How so?

[@JamesClay-fl6pd]

ROE!

[@HRussock]

Regarding uncoupling; I think it is important to make the distinction between boycotting a company because of its CEO’s beliefs, and boycotting a company because its CEO is using the money he earns from that company’s sales to donate millions of dollars annually to organizations that lobby to take away gay people’s right to marry. Literally - buying a chicken sandwich can be making a direct contribution toward legislation that takes away your rights. That’s different from not going to see a Woody Allen film.

[@yarrowflower]

With regard to art, there is boycotting art due to ethical motivations and then there is a negative mental association with the art ruining or tainting your subjective enjoyment of it. If a creative person has perpetuated sexual violence, for example, that unpleasant thought might be the thing that enters your mind when you think about the art and you might not be able to enjoy it like you used to. There is a third consideration that is similar to the previous two (boycotting and negative mental associations) but distinct. Part of enjoying art may, in some cases for some people, be an admiration for its creators. If you feel you can no longer admire an artist for moral reasons, you may feel like the meaning of that art has changed for you.

[@ChristineDorsey1]

This is my first time watching this podcast. Gotta say, watching two dudes who study politics for a living completely miss the female aspect of Kamala is both hilarious and infuriating at the same time. I could not believe how many of my male Democrat friends were freaking out after the debate wondering who would possibly replace Biden. Seriously? Had Biden’s VP been a man, would they have been looking under every rock they way they were just a few weeks ago? Of course not. And while Shapiro is a great politician who is going places, you have to remember that he and Kamala are genuinely close friends. Close enough that she trusted that he would work PA for her just as hard if she didn’t pick him, so she wasn’t going to lose anything by picking someone different who would not alienate the left or the right of the party - and who would be comfortable playing second fiddle to a woman. It’s interesting- and sad - that so many men in this business continue to underestimate women.

[@damny0utoobe]

I don't think they were freaking out about Kamala's gender. It was that in the past, she had some really bad moments on camera and looked like she was not ready to become the candidate.

[@dawnoceanside7300]

​@@damny0utoobenot gender, women's RIGHTS! 🤭😆🤪😯

[@emiiii]

@@damny0utoobemost often bias is unconscious.

[@ChristineDorsey1]

@@damny0utoobe well in discussions with several of my male friends, they literally used the words ‘woman’ and ‘black’ as the reasons that while - oh, they don’t personally feel this way but - she’ll never win.

[@Ryanrobi]

No one should care about their sex or skin color...it's a non issue.

[@WordAte]

Nate is always misinformed on politics. He knows numbers. But he struggles with the qualitative stuff, like policy and facts. Kamala was never tasked with the border. She was tasked with working on root causes in Latin America.

[@thexanderthemander]

Also I know tons of progressives, gay people, etc who don't like Chic-fil-a's politics but like their food. He came off as very "enlightened centrist"

[@WordAte]

@@spanishflea634 Yes, the fact Nate did not know reality impacted his conclusion.

[@WordAte]

@@thexanderthemander Enjoying buttery biscuits makes one an enlightened centrist? Wow. Powerful statement.

[@TisDana]

Many of the immigrants crossing the border are/were from Latin American countries because of economic issues. She was tasked to understand what those factors are that are causing people to leave those countries, to see if there are remedies and therefore, lessen the amount of refugees. As a result, the US eased up on sanctions to Venezuela and other countries. Immigration from those countries went down.

[@thexanderthemander]

@WordAte that's not what I said at all. I was saying him saying "Progressives can't enjoy Chic-fil-a because their politics, but I can because I'm not like them" is enlightened centrist stuff because I know lots of progressives that decouple the politics and the food.

[@bvgg833]

Very informative from both of you. I like that the conversation was balanced in that we got to hear Ezra's thinking and ideas as much as Nate's opinions; and vice versa on a range of related topics from his book. Thank you

[@marcussassan]

One of the best recent political pods Ive seen. Thank you guys.

[@nsn5564]

Nate Silver is highly intelligent, but it's all mostly IQ, not as much EQ.

[@35kwils]

Anyone who is a libertarian is not ultimately very bright. Sure he’s got a higher than average IQ, but to commit to the pathological selfishness of libertarianism requires a deficit in social skills and a lack of empathy.

[@Golgispot]

Not sure why you state his IQ is so high. What am I missing?

[@yiskanight]

It's interesting what was left out of this conversation. For example about workers during COVID, Nate places it in this binary argument: workers can die, laptop users in the suburbs live. The calculus was that certain jobs are essential and those workers should have access to medical care. We seem to have collective amnesia about the term "flatten the curve". Or, when Nate throws out he gave a 30% chance for Trump winning like that was a bold prediction. seriously? It's a two-party country. I've never watched an interview with Nate Silver before, but I think both the love and the hate for him seem wasted on such a remarkably limited pundit.

[@kathyconway5327]

Thank you, great analysis.

[@jmlouie]

I'm liking the new video version!

[@soniaalvarado5372]

So many great points were raised in this interview that I'll have to re-watch it. One point they talked about briefly is about Biden giving up his campaign; they both have different opinions about it however, to Ezra's point, power is very seductive. We only have to look at the number of people in Congress who will continue to run for office regardless of age or health. We also have Federal judges who will not limit the number of years that they will serve, or the Supreme Court, for that matter. Looking at it through this lens, Biden's decision is highly unusual, unexpected, and admirable.

[@dogeared100]

Why was Harris more supportable than Biden who is more experience?

[@kitthroneberry1577]

Always interesting and listening worthy, thank you!

[@meganm1074]

For a long podcast like this, better to provide chapters & descriptions.

[@jannichi6431]

Try Lex Fridman. Min. 2.5 hours.

[@tigrankarapetian7618]

Super interesting discussion!

So voting for a third party candidate who cannot possibly win is not irresponsible but voting for the Democratic Party candidate is irresponsible? Silver must be a Millennial.💙

[@e.malloy7530]

Ezra deserves a cookie for giving him just a polite nod and eyebrow raise for that one...

[@BennyRuff]

Cat women are coming out in droves for Kamala, which is funny because they didn't come out when she was dating Willie Brown. They need abortions so they can continue the cat lady theme.

[@ProfessionalBadPerson]

I've only been listening to the podcast and didn't expect Ezra to look different

[@HKim0072]

lol, dude looks a bit jacked. I've seen his face before, but didn't know the guy is hitting the gym that hard.

[@jannichi6431]

Me too. For years now since he went solo when podcasts were just starting. He looks looks great, but hasn't changed the college attitude a bit. Excellent interview, as always.

[@SmallBobby]

He such a hottie 🥵

[@Pwr484]

He lost me at his statement that he would not have voted for Biden but would have voted libertarian because it would have been irresponsible. But helping Trump by not voting for Biden was not irresponsible?! Decoupling?😮

[@funtechu]

Nate talked about it on the Silver Bulletin. He stated that since he doesn't live in a swing state, he was considering voting for one of the third parties as a protest vote. But he also said that if he was in a swing state he would still have voted for Biden just as a vote against Trump. So no, he was not planning on helping Trump.

[@Golgispot]

Much of what he hands out is solid, but sometimes he is just an average cat in a baseball hat

[@jackremington3397]

TRUMP 2024

[@thealexfish4480]

I would prefer that we don’t run the world like it’s an investment portfolio. The VC mindset is capital poisoned.

[@MrShadowbite]

The problem is that these people have an undue amount of influence due to the sheer amount of money involved

[@fwiffo1376]

With Shapiro I think that there were quite a lot of vulnerabilities, and I'm not convinced PA voters would really be that impressed by the governor jumping ship after only two years. Also he got a large assist in his blowout win by an absolutely horrible Republican candidate. I think the person that got unfairly overlooked is Whitmer, which I think that Nate has talked about. She was overlooked basically because they didn't want two women on the ticket, but given the quite frankly incompetent way that a lot of Republicans have gone after Harris, I don't know how much of an issue that would have been. Also, a lot of men out there (and some women) are unconfortable with a man playing second fiddle to a woman, the Republicans have been playing on that heavily in their attacks on Walz, whereas they could not play on that had Whitmer been the pick. So I'm not convinced that the Democrats really needed to go the white male affirmative action route.

[@mananmehta6910]

Yeah even I wanted Whitmer. Would've made the election more interesting because she couldn't just have carried Michigan but also Wisconsin for sure. Would've made the election night a lot more interesting Only problem was that she's also a far left radical. Just like Kamala. Would've been a very radical left ticket & while that could've helped in Michigan & Wisconsin, same time it could've hurt in Virginia. That's basically how Youngkin won. Talking only about local school issues & that's exactly how it'd play out again in 2024

[@tracevicente]

They are detached from humanity itself. THAT is the end. What is the purpose of living?

[@Elbo88]

Interesting view this time to see you in the studio. Cheers!

[@justanaiboopbeep]

Anyone else frequently confuse Ezra Klein and Nate Silver? This is the closest my brain has come to accepting that they are different people.

[@charlesmiv3842]

Both overeducated, insufferable, millennial, liberal, coastal jews.

[@chuckenergy]

i get the feeling that decoupling is probably a lot more nuanced than most of the examples they gave-- which just sounded more like being privileged enough to not need to think about issues of intersectionality

[@LavenderJergens]

Nate Silver now advises Polymarket which is co owned by Peter Thiels venture capital outfit Founders Firm.

[@idrinkfernet]

Peter Thiel is one of six founders at that VC firm. They own somewhere between 4% - 6%.

[@kitty_cat1999]

Yeah ... Nate drank the cool aid ...

[@matchettian]

Why do we assume that a two week change in Harris’ approval ratings is any more permanent than the previous polling? Particularly since it’s based not on her record or actions, but just on a vague “vibe” that’s likely to be undermined by her having to actually articulate policies.

[@IanDoesMagic]

What previous polling? To their point a hypothetical candidacy is processed differently than an actual one. The new polling is all that exists between Harris and Trump. Why should we believe it will change?

[@rob2112rob]

Harris flamed out in a span of 2 months for her bid back in ‘19. She has had a rotating door of disappointed staff ever since. She hasn’t accepted a single press interview. She’s an empty suit that is temporarily filling the void of Biden incompetence.

[@rockydopeydoge6730]

I like a show that discusses the condition "if you have been on mushrooms before" ...

[@TheSadDane]

Silver is someone you might want working for you to give you to give you good advice on the risk of a particular decision, but you wouldn't want him in charge of anything. Like the tech bros he so admires, he's very good at a specific thing, and has become rich doung it, which makes him thinks he's good at everything.

[@Dark-uk4oz]

Great episode

[@mirandapillsbury7885]

excellent interview as usual

[@clbrett1]

How do you factor the mideast, specifically Israel's activities, in your election models? Also, humor. Trump's (so called) humor helped him. Walz's humor has fresh (and more harmless) humor that is refreshing and appealing.

[@jannichi6431]

Trump thought he was the Barker of the Circus (Apprentice) when all along he was the clown🤡

[@jannichi6431]

Deprecating "humor" is for the insecure

[@johannesschroder943]

The types of models nate silver works on try their best to insulate their models from actual policy and instead predict the results by process based predictors meaning israels activities do not factor directly into the models. Rather Israel's actions and their perceived relevance to the US will factor into the predictors(mostly polls) which the model is based on. Not sure if this misses your question somewhat but the structure of the model wont tell you much about actual policy and its effects on the world.

[@BK-uf6qr]

The fascination with polling is odd. It’s like why Amazon prime became so popular…we want satisfaction immediately. But why do we need to know how a future event will end up? Before we watch a movie we avoid spoiler alerts. Polling, though, has been used as a modern day laugh track. To signal to other people when and how to act. It’s been largely discredited but people still cling to election polls to satiate their hunger. Other polls are meant as a cudgel against policies or politicians. Aside from manipulation of polls, how someone feels about a future event is irrelevant and betrays the final act being polled. In short, it’s a big game. During elections, you do get a hint of what “internal polls” are really showing as far as the mood at the moment. Ads focuses on a certain cohort that’s not been previously discussed. Polls have been manipulated and have lost their way in our modern world.

[@GJT-w3y]

Nate's new book should be "Thank you RW VC bros for funding my gambling addiction". Why Ezra has him on, and is fawning over this guy, is amazing.

[@janicem4382]

It seems that Nate is an example of decoupling morality and risk, financial and otherwise. This is my first exposure to his point of view.

[@gorkmusic]

Keep the hat on. F*** the haters.

[@dancoffey8412]

You bet your life is rarely what VC players engage in. PRIVATIZE THE PROFIT AND SOCIALIZE THE LOSES.

[@stephenphillips6245]

Young people are far more risk averse now, but thier kevel of social interaction with friends, face to face, is half of what it was in the 90s...which has only increased loneliness.

[@abepressman2181]

Wow, Nate Silver sure likes brushing off legitimate grievances. The Chik Fil A boycot wasn't about the CEO's views-it was about the fact that a portion of their proceeds were getting donated to opposing same-sex marriage, so every sandwich bought there was a direct financial contribution to taking away rights!

[@gatinhopretolp]

I'm from PA. No one gaf if Shapiro is on the ticket or not. No Dem in the state is going to stay home because she didn't choose Shapiro. Stop the intellectual masturbation.

[@dogeared100]

Absolutely.

[@HbagMbag]

The quality of this channel is becoming habit forming. Thank you!

[@jackremington3397]

Kool-aid tastes good???

[@HbagMbag]

@@jackremington3397 Who doesn't drink kool aid!? Seriously!? Theoretically it's possible. How 'bout you!?

[@jackremington3397]

@@HbagMbag No Content Troll.

[@Barrymccockener27]

How are those keys 🔑 tasting this fine morning trumpppppppp

[@fergalhennessy775]

Lichtmans career is over 😥😥😥🤣🤣🤣

[@jonathanswink2682]

This was a fantastic podcast. Nate has always fascinated me. We just seems like he has a wealth or information in that noggin.

[@suhseal]

the mushroom analogy is hilarious. but so true. the mental agility and fortitude to be agile when your mind is haywire is a huge asset.

[@icey8475]

I remember the American adage in World War 2 describing the fall to fascism: "They gambled with the freedoms of others and in turn lost their own." That is Nate Silver in a nutshell. An astute statistician? Yes. But also a gambler, willing to bet on the lives of other people to advance the prospects of Nate Silver. Classic libertarian.

[@TheC4CD]

Silver should live some days in a political leadership position where his moves will take on another dimension. He's stunted in some ways that suffer from a highly developed cluster of other synapses. Numbers and the digital flow can only take you so far.

[@barelyliteratebooks3899]

we were one car accident away from a less dumb world

[@DrBeauHightower]

Oh so NOW Nate Silver is trusted again 😂😂😂

[@irwinshung809]

Why don't you trust him?

[@GJT-w3y]

No

[@MrSparkula]

Nate really nailed 2016, didn’t he? Allan Lichtman is the only person who greatly gets it right.

[@loveroflife1914]

Totally agree with Ezra on Walz

[@OBGynKenobi]

Imagine a society on which its underpinnings rely on gambling....

[@dogeared100]

It's OUR society. When do you not take a risk?

[@MMNYCCPA]

When Walz was announced as the VP pick, my first instinct was based upon strategy between Harris and Shapiro. You stated the true caveat of the vice presidency, which is a person in waiting, if needed, but of little importance for 4 years. Is that what Shapiro wanted? No. He has much more power and prestige of being the governor of PA, than as VP. I see Harris putting Shapiro on the cabinet as secretary of state, a much more powerful and prestigious position than the VP, which will put him in the forefront as the top candidate in either 4 or 8 years.

[@SheWhoSeeksWisdom]

This!

[@SamuelClemens-o6q]

The VC mindset is insanely destructive to society. The mass failure rate screws an outsize number of people, whereas the successes propel an insanely small group of people. And in the grand scheme of things, the successful ideas provide trivial actual benefits. That is to say, we could have been quite happy if those ideas never came to fruition. Quality of life always trumps quantity of life regardless of whether you’re mature enough to grasp that reality.

[@George-ni5ic]

Good point. The VC approach is a good machine to make lots of money for a few while sowing destruction for many. Nothing more.

[@joythought]

An alternative view: startups get crushed by incumbent monopolies. The only way to break past them is with VC money. That money does not solve problems for a startup. Instead it is rocket fuel. It is the rocket fuel needed to break out of the gravitational field of the incumbents and get up to a high enough scale with enough revenue that you can actually fend off the incumbents attempting to destroy you in the courts and through regulations where they use their political influences to block you out. This is just how business is played. Without VC money we would not have Google, instead we would have a paywall internet served up by AOL, etc. so if you want to live in a world of monopolies then please dismiss venture capital as useless.... Right now if you don't have VC money we will be stuck with Amazon crushing small businesses forever. VCs are willing to lay bets on new potential startups that can actually eat into Amazon's revenue. That's good for consumers and it's good for small businesses. But of course hugely successful VC-backed companies become the new monopolies which then need to be innovated past by the next generation of startups.

[@itsallminor6133]

I didn't quite understand I'm afraid. The vc bet when they win, everyone wins. That's why we have all this technology now. You bet on multiple ideas and some end up working. This is standard practice in any development. Are you against research and development and technology?

[@joythought]

An alternative view: startups get crushed by incumbent monopolies. The only way to break past them is with VC money. That money does not solve problems for a startup. Instead it is rocket fuel. It is the rocket fuel needed to break out of the gravitational field of the incumbents and get up to a high enough scale with enough revenue that you can actually fend off the incumbents attempting to destroy you in the courts and through regulations where they use their political influences to block you out. This is just how business is played. Without VC money we would not have Google, instead we would have a paywall internet served up by AOL, etc. so if you want to live in a world of monopolies then please dismiss venture capital as useless.... Right now if you don't have VC money we will be stuck with Amazon crushing small businesses forever. VCs are willing to lay bets on new potential startups that can actually eat into Amazon's revenue. That's good for consumers and it's good for small businesses. But of course hugely successful VC-backed companies become the new monopolies which then need to be innovated past by the next generation of startups...

[@SamuelClemens-o6q]

@@itsallminor6133 I love technology. Addicted even. But very little of it has made my life better simply by existing. Doing things I love with people I respect and creating value for people who appreciate it makes my life better. That could involve cutting edge tech or making shoes with hand tools. It’s the relationships formed and pride in my own work that propels me forward. VC mindset is a relentless pursuit of the next thing. They don’t even care what it is. It’s just a manifestation of their sociopathy and unrestrained compulsions.

[@davidmillion9811]

Super interesting...

[@Megatherium]

Nate didn't really address the decoupling question, but the implication I got from his Chick Fil A example is that he's talking about decoupling in analysis, not in consumption. Strictly someone's ability to evaluate the quality of a chick fil a sandwich despite hating the company. Refusing to buy from them is a separate matter entirely. The fundamental issue is if somebody's ideology causes them to think that chick fil a has intrinsically bad food.

[@epluribusu9430]

To what kind of "village" does Netanyahu and his apartheid Taliban base belong? And David Duke and Neanderthal Marjorie..... are they in a "village". Tell us Nate and Ezra, please.

[@jannichi6431]

Radical Coo Coo.🤪 Short term power grabs/ $$$.

[@jackremington3397]

MTG in 2028!!!

[@naomieyles210]

Netanyahu is a big stakes risk taker, therefore "river" not "village".

[@HeftyHalfling]

Hearing a guy be wrong and high on his own supply is the only reason to interview Nate Silver.

[@sheilakoff8590]

Joy, humor, and pugilism , the new Democratic combo, moving forward! Yes! Yes! Yes, Molly Bloom , too.

[@djhero0071]

I've kinda clocked out on most of this but that anecdote of Thiel and Musk stayed with me. What a wonderful world we could've been living in right now.

[@DeeL-u1c]

What does it mean that Silver and Thiel are friends?

[@dogeared100]

Gross

[@direwolf6234]

without being on the ticket shapiro can still deliver PA .. and they don't have to lose a great governor ..

[@donbemont7901]

Somehow, I don't think you've got it quite right when it comes to politics and risk. Remember, it wasn't all that long ago that the risk was of terrorist attack, and the the sides were reversed. In general, the fact that so many Americans since WWII have had high life expectancy, high child survival rates, homes that appreciated enormously in value, and rather low risk from war, violence or accidents -- these things all encourage risk aversion. And risk aversion is, in itself, somewhat repulsive to a whole lot of people (including many of the people who actually display it). Basically, it's cowardice, fitting right in with the timeless view (particularly among males) that every generation lacks the toughness of the previous one. The result is that activists can extract both fear of risk AND disgust with that fear. Quite independently of actual risk (which the human mind doesn't estimate very well anyway, and media sources routinely warp for views in any case). The reaction to a Muslim terrorist attack becomes a stand-in for uniting against a foreign faith, and thus uniting around the true faith. The reaction to a pandemic becomes a stand-in for collective action with scientific experts given not just advisory roles but governmental authority. In each case, there's the actual risk. And then there's the underlying political war. Which muddies the waters as to who has how much risk aversion.

[@FPOAK]

Ezra is right about how Elon Musk looks at the world entirely through Twitter now. Like how Nate Silver understands the Left (which he seems to distinguish from Liberals merely by tone of discourse) entirely through Twitter. It's easy to lump everyone together as an "indigo blob" when this is the level you're engaging at Silver and Yglesias love to vaguely gesture at all the problems posed by the excesses of the Left but they can never attach these supposedly excessive positions to any actual public figures because that would reveal that what they keep painting as the "Left" is actually corporate HR culture pushed exclusively by middle class liberals

[@gward117]

AND! We had no choice and she has GROWN tremendously which is timely favorable for the Democratic Party and the American public. 💙💙💙💙💙

[@hninzilwin3288]

When you look back on it Kamala came on to the national politics scene with rock star credentials. People from CA were saying how great she was and then her campaign sputtered and all that rock star stuff was gone. She is now reclaiming her previous position before the 2019 fizzle

[@dawnoceanside7300]

Dictatorship vs DEMOCRACY! If you didn't see THAT, You need magnifying 🔎 glasses!!!!!! 😯😳🤪🤭

[@jannichi6431]

She did so well on the College tour this spring. Herself.

[@rob2112rob]

@@dawnoceanside7300 and where exactly do you see DEMOCRACY in any of this?

[@anonymousteacher4875]

People who deal in probabilities like SBF don’t consider humanity. They don’t have that piece in play.

[@jannichi6431]

Heartbroken for him. So many could be sitting right next to him. Buyer beware. He's a mixed up kid that hopefully is sober today.

[@jannichi6431]

What's Grump's excuse? Unable to learn maybe?

[@direwolf6234]

am surprised that they never mentioned the behavior & reactions of people in deadly combat situations .. where split second decisions do have life & death consequences .. seems more serious than a poker game or politics ..

[@kenm8436]

Of course Biden gave her really tough things to do. When you want to be President it helps to demonstrate you can tackle tough problems. It's not Biden's fault the Harris originally struggled and complained about the difficulty of the assignments. I'm just glad she has improved since then.

[@SkadiBella]

lmfao this dude sounds so out of touch. thing in common with most of those 'risk takers' is that they have massive privileges that make the potential consequences of their screw ups a lot less serious. easy to glorify what is often gambling with other people's lives when they rarely have to face consequences themselves. meanwhile marginalized groups can't afford to take these kinds of risks because things going bad would absolutely ruin their lives. also i don't see what boycotting someone who you think has a negative impact on society, in order to reduce their political/cultural/financial power and influence has to do with risk. also it sounds really stupid to reduce gen z's behavior to 'low risk tolerance' and ignore the context of shrinking third spaces and the fact they basically live in a surveillance society where everyone is constantly judging each other. among other things. in a nutshell i'm sure this guy is very smart and i'm all for progressives checking their confirmation biases more but reducing the whole world to statistics like this makes you sound so glib and inhumane, not to mention disconnected from context and reality, it feels very counterproductive

[@pizdamatii5001]

nate: "i wouldn't have voted for joe biden, i would have voted libertarian." i did not see that coming. suddenly lost all respect for the guy :( his "signal and the noise" is a really good book though, definitely worth reading.

[@cchamp29]

"De-coupling"

[@WackadoodleMalarkey]

FWIW Keith Olbermann has publicly apologized multiple times for introducing him to the world

[@monicabeaston4996]

Me too. 100 per cent. He was running against Trump...Trump!

[@funtechu]

Nate talked about it on the Silver Bulletin. He stated that since he doesn't live in a swing state, he was considering voting for one of the third parties as a protest vote. But he also said that if he was in a swing state he would still have voted for Biden just as a vote against Trump. So no, he was not planning on helping Trump.

[@Jimmy2toes4u]

Hate just about everything the NYT stands for but I really appreciate a well thought out idea.

[@crankydragon]

We should move to a parliamentary system.

[@MaileAnthopoulos]

There’s no guarantee that choosing a governor from any state as VP will win that state in an election I think Walz is the perfect choice

[@larryprimeau5885]

I used to do that..predict who won and all lost, state by state.

[@jakep9730]

I agree about the over-importance of Russian trolls in the 2016 election. I strongly (strongly!) disagree about the role that tech played. People continue to get their news more from social media and podcasts than news broadcasts and papers. And as bad as propaganda is on cable TV, it's *so* much worse in social media bubbles. Everything everyone sees is edited down, filtered, and memed to fit a narrative rather than present the facts. Those of us who read the Times (and who have been challenged on our views by it!) are by far the exception, especially in our generation. Tech platforms made it this way. They made a choice to rely on algorithmic recommendation systems and editorialize nothing.

[@rob2112rob]

NYT and the like suck so bad that consumers went elsewhere. Try Substack on for style. There you will find a litany ex MSM writers and thinkers who aren’t beholden to corporate dictates.

[@user-se9ho2qw1n]

Tim Walz reflects Harris's well balanced calculative and intuitive thinking.

[@_Glorie_]

I love these conversations Ezra. I think you’re a wonderful interviewer.

[@kitty_cat1999]

At 36:08 Ezra brings up an important point ... that these folks do not have an understanding of human interactions ... Nate sweeps it under the rug that ( and I am paraphrasing) yeah they are flawed ... but they make lots of money ... The problem is when these socipaths wade into politics ... specifically when they go to grab power ... then their sociopathy becomes public enemy and will affect many lives. Let them stay in their lanes and take risks and make money ... But when they start backing up deranged mysogynists to run for office time after time... They deserve to be called out for their very glaring shortcomings.

[@deandimattia4516]

Please improve audio and coach folks on how to use that mic and slow down.

[@LiverpoolReject]

If the risk is that I die, I'm going to mitigate that risk. I like gambling but this guy clearly talks about risk so casually because he's never had to gamble his entire bankroll.

[@simian_essence]

Why is it that so many people have difficulty in making distinctions in their judgments? For example: That Elon Musk is both a genius (in business & technology) and an idiot (in geopolitics)? It seems to me quite a normal, unremarkable thing that both descriptions can be true for one and the same person.

[@mikevallender]

Excellent

[@unlimitedpower978]

The audio quality for Silver on his mic is awful

[@kenneld]

We will 100% hear Ezra use the term "on tilt" again after this episode. He liked that.

[@TinaSotis]

My theory: In exchange for not getting a shot at VP this voting cycle, Shapiro promises to throw his full weight behind delivering Pennsylvania, and Harris gives Shapiro full endorsement in for president in 2032. Just a thought.

[@believer773]

Nate Silver looks like he smells like cigarettes and whiskey

[@Andrew-iv5dq]

Yeah, and musty clothes

[@lucianbakerii7562]

The surgical face mask is designed to protect the patient and not the doctor. We protect each other by wearing a mask in public when we are ill.

[@neondusty]

Everything is 50/50. Either it happens or it doesn't.

[@sheilakoff8590]

Stubborn RBG too.