NCAAF college football sports betting preview week #4

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[@mgcovers]

View all of those lines here docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vTh69GjF1rfhRDw2hbra7YsQsW0KRPmE4w_8dUsE6F_KqydJhtsbwaupttCy6SwVgY5APtfSczLzIYq/pubhtml?gid=1994797300&single=true

[@mowas8620]

Thanks for sharing!! Seeing how we both had South Alabama, as well as some other teams, I'm feeling better about my model now. Just have to watch the line movements.

[@mgcovers]

Awesome. Nice work!!!

[@sunnyboateng180]

MG, was watching your video and noticed something odd. Texas -44.5 vs ULM but on your sheets Texas is +5.5.

[@mgcovers]

Correct the model is statistically drive so whatever is produces as a line it is what it is. It doesn't mean we play LA Monroe on ML, the model gives us indication if there's value. Also, if you said, "that doesn't look right...let me change it." What would you change it too? -10, -30? If you do, you are basically bringing bias into the line which is what we don't want to do. We always keep the model pure.

[@mindset3413]

Question can you please explain how your line and the sportsbook differential works

[@mgcovers]

Just subtract my line from books line. Look for at least 5 points of value. Example - my line is -10 (model predicts a win by 10 points) if books like is -3 we have a 7 point differential.

[@farmacana4167]

A what are your picks?

[@mgcovers]

Plays marked with X here. docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vTh69GjF1rfhRDw2hbra7YsQsW0KRPmE4w_8dUsE6F_KqydJhtsbwaupttCy6SwVgY5APtfSczLzIYq/pubhtml?gid=1994797300&single=true