Nestle Stock Analysis - Another Great Business Getting Cheaper

Nestle Stock Analysis as requested.
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[@konstantingeorgiev7521]

Nestle is a great stock for an upcoming stagnation. As many stocks go down from lower consumption, people will still buy food. Not just any food, but the kind of food Nestle makes.

[@Value-Investing]

yes, PE ratio 22

[@massimopasquini8700]

What I don't like about Swiss stocks is the 35% withholding tax on dividends, which - if I'm not mistaken - is the highest among western countries

[@Christineperkins-uw8ow]

I suggest buying the new tesla innovation shares at this point as they are relatively cheap and are sure to yield long-term profits

[@nonexistent5030]

​@@Christineperkins-uw8owlmfao good joke

[@dodid0]

You know what's worse? Swiss citizens don't pay dividend tax nor income tax.

[@Christineperkins-uw8ow]

@nonexistent5030 you care to explain why you feel it's a joke?

[@apc9714]

Yes, and you have to add your country divideds tax rate on top of it

[@Manuel-ou6bh]

This is exactly the video I wanted. Great. Thank you!

[@s4b1n123]

What happened to the intrinsic value calculation table? I found quite good value in that, as it was easily showing the relative value of stocks to each other. Did it go away because of the paradigm change with rising interest rates?

[@mircoc2357]

I guess no I mean interest rate are not to be blamed, since he sold all his portfolio He has changed his approch in investing wich his now based on current price earing. Basically buy stock at a low P/E. This is my guess.

[@davidedeltoro4117]

I tell you a Sad Joke Sven. 3,19% Dividend Yield in a Swiss Stock, trasmute to a 1,54% Net Yield for an Italian Retail Investor (double tax -35% Swiss and 26% Italian). Treasuries are taxed at 12,5% (no double tax), so today 4,60% on a 10Y trasmute to a 4,02% Net Yield. Tax dramas asides, i'd like to take a look at Nestlè under 18 times current earnings. Thanks for your work 🍫

[@semhustej]

Are you sure you have to pay the full Italian 26%? In Czech republic, we can offset some part of the tax payed out in foreign country, so that usually means we do not have to pay our full 15% local dividend tax. Usually we have to pay only 0, 5 or 10 % more over the tax already payed in a foreign country.

[@Value-Investing]

Thanks for sharing

[@TheScaryGermanGuy]

An alternative is to sell the stock before ex-dividend day and then rebuy it a day later. That way you can bypass the dividend tax and rebuy the stock at a lower price (usually lowered by the dividend amount).

[@davidedeltoro4117]

@@semhustej I'm sure 100%.. In Italy retail investors are double taxed on dividends in almost every country.. one of the few exception is the UK (no double tax).. the funny part is to pay double tax on Ferrari and Stellantis (Ex FCA) dividends, because they domiciled on the Netherlands in recent years.. 😨🤡

[@davidedeltoro4117]

@@TheScaryGermanGuy Can be a solution for short term trading position

[@leswhynin913]

7:10 it would take a significant market drawdown for Nestle to reach 50% of current price, in which case i would likely be far more interested in other opportunities

[@Eline_Meijer]

Nestle is one of the most evil corporations. Not for me. Thank you for the video Sven.

[@TheTrig86]

Why evil?

[@Christineperkins-uw8ow]

I suggest buying the new tesla innovation shares at this point as they are relatively cheap and are sure to yield dividends soon

[@Eline_Meijer]

@@TheTrig86 google it

[@sirogersiroger8835]

Hi Sven, love the quick Stock analyses. Would love to See Mc Donalds. Thanks

[@Energy4free_]

Great analyse Sven, but how much do you take into account the taxes for dividends and the appreciation/depreciation of the currency against euro when you analyse the stock?

[@bulu4927]

Yay greetings from switzerland , sven!

[@Mark.remarking]

Nice overview and analysis Sven. Thank you. I don't see if the cash flow growth. I mean it looks like they're trying, but I'm not sure they are more than a cash cow. And of course, they are vulnerable to commodity prices of sugar and cocoa. Not a buy from me.

[@ioand1015]

Very good review Sven! I was wondering if we can have an update on $UNH, I had it on my radar for some time, was waiting for bad news or some drama to pull down the price and I executed. The multiples look really attractive now considering the projected growth, high barriers of entry, how well it is run and the consistency of this business.

[@nonexistent5030]

Did you account for regulatory risk though?

[@ioand1015]

There always is regulatory risk with high moat monopolistic businesses. Alphabet and Microsoft were hit with multiple lawsuits a few years back. Where are these companies today? IMO the margin of safety for $UNH is adequate today but we would all enjoy to see what Sven thinks about it.

[@nataliam895]

Thank you for this analysis. Grüsse aus der Schweiz 🎉

[@jonathankr]

Nestle Ceo: "Water is not a human right". Lol

[@dinoXAs2]

I remembered something like this... yeah they can keep their stock and madness

[@Value-Investing]

thanks for sharing!

[@The_WolfPack_Alpha]

Former CEO, and 11 Years ago*

[@dinoXAs2]

@@The_WolfPack_Alpha So nowdays its even worse

[@dimitribulatov7937]

Hello Sven and thank you for the video. I am invested in Nestlé and am honestly worried about debts. Question: if comperitors-companies like Ahold or Orkla are 20% cheaper, but grow faster and reinvest their profits... Are they not offering a better investment case?

[@Christineperkins-uw8ow]

I suggest buying the new tesla innovation shares at this point as they are relatively cheap and are sure to yield dividends long-term

[@LukaTrnic-bn3dh]

Can you look at Hersheys, similar industry and dividend although in us which means better witholding tax. Perhaps the cocoa prices will stabilise and stock price will reuturn to highs?

[@Value-Investing]

That would be an interesting topic, thanks!

[@owendavies8227]

I have ethical issues with investing in Nestle.

[@Value-Investing]

thanks for sharing

[@jonnes__4657]

🗽 I like the Nestlé stock! 👍 If the stock falls by 50% I will buy more shares. .

[@nonexistent5030]

Yeah 20 p/e in inflationary regime with cocoa futures skyrocketing makes confectionsists look terrible. Give me a p/e of 10 and I'll dive in.

[@j.c.4192]

Cheaper is not better. Given energy prices in europe is uncompetitive thanks to blowing up ns2

[@emanuelecalamia6219]

Hi Sven, Thanks for the great analysis. I would love to hear your opinionion about Zignago Vetro, an italian company with a 1 billion market cap. The company produces glass for the cosmetic and food areas , it has grown a lot in the last 10 years and has record margins among industrials. The p/e is around 10 and the dividend yield about 5,5%. Thanks !

[@Value-Investing]

glass? give me a recession first

[@_mklein]

I was actually going to ask you to review this Stock! Thanks Sven! Cheers from the UK

[@jeromerouge1979]

You miss to say that Nestlé owns 20.1% of L'Oréal !!! Your intrinsic valuation might be a bit better ...

[@Value-Investing]

I look at cash flows! If they sell, do buybacks, the stock goes up, but that is just financial engineering. Plus, hard to sell such a stake.

[@LeszekChojnacki]

Many thanks, waiting for Roche :)

[@Value-Investing]

That is not my cup of tea

[@LeszekChojnacki]

@@Value-Investing :(

[@saethman]

Regarding your brief comment on the volatile buybacks; I noticed that Nestle, unlike many others, increased the buybacks during the financial crisis. That's what we want to see; aggressive buybacks when the share-price takes a hit :) However, they have increased the buybacks the last few years - at a price that isn't depressed

[@Value-Investing]

crisis was in 2009, not 2007

[@saethman]

​@@Value-Investing They did more buybacks in 2009 than in 2007. Sure they reduced somewhat in 2009 compared to 2008, but I would still be happy to see that kind of buybacks in a company that I own (I don't own Nestle)

[@TheMainStreetInvestor]

Great analysis as always! I have been digging into HSY lately, Nestle looks like it has good potential as well

[@Politik-mit-Kopf]

Funny how I coincidentally opened the position yesterday. 😂 It’s a conservative bet. Nothing fancy but a Risk Reward Ratio that works for me.

[@Value-Investing]

:-)

[@vigszilard4651]

Hi Sven, I've been thinking about copper for the past few days, and I realized that I don't really know any companies that deal with copper, processing. Would you make a video in which you name a couple in which we can look into and follow? Thanks 🖐🏼

You got a new follower. Great content

[@Value-Investing]

Welcome aboard!

[@felipeturbayr]

More of this stuff Sven! 😊 looking for good opportunities out there 👍

[@erikm9768]

Hi Sven. Why do you think they will grow 6%? Considering they have had negative growth over the past 15 years ot me it looks just as likely that they will shrink 6%

[@potomac5466]

I would have never thought that you could say anything nice about Nestle after hearing multiple times how you talk about Unilever.

[@Value-Investing]

thanks for commenting

[@kristiant6056]

Bought last week for me and my wife.

[@T0mkisss]

How is it a return of 5% *Plus* 3-6% growth? You showed a graph that the company revenue and net income are completely flat. The EPS will have grown by 3% over the last decade because of the 3% buybacks, which is inside the 5% "return". So would be double counting.

[@pettirosso252]

3-6% organic growth is what Nestle is projecting for 2024-2025

[@pedromiguel-fs7ux]

​@@pettirosso252I also don't understand why the dividend is considered "return". It subtracts the stock price as you know. It's just realized gains /losses with withholding tax. Or I'm missing something?

[@T0mkisss]

@@pettirosso252 I thought it must be something more credible, but you're probably right. For context - Swiss inflation has devalued the currency 6.4% over the last 3 years, so I do hope they "grow" 3-6% in the next couple of years. But then, I assume the management expected to grow at times during the last 10 years and the end result was flat.

[@Ravencroft81]

Paying 35% Swiss and on what's left 30% Belgian withholdingtax on dividends really hurts.

[@unclesamson]

You forgot the 20% stake in L'Oreal ;)

[@Value-Investing]

that might not be valuable as you might think

[@chamindasilva3191]

Good presentation. Solid stock overshadowed by AI phenomena.

[@MrDrunkNFunky]

Sven: Mondelez or Nestle though?

[@nrwalsh]

Great question Sven, what's your best 1 word answer lol

[@nonexistent5030]

Probably more of a personal preference but look at ROI and leverage ratios and margins to see which best suits you.

[@joeg9829]

I rather buy vhyl/schd or Something that direction, UL and nestle etc are only bags barely moving with taxed dividends and more risk imo, great vid tho

[@nonexistent5030]

You can't value those though very successfully since they're ETFs so good luck buying them as a value investor! As a DCA sire, but not really opportunistic active value investor targets realistically. The goal is to beat those returns.

[@oliverkoi]

I am willing to invest in alcohol companies, gambling and even weapon manufacturers - but there are so many thing that are morally wrong with Nestlé.

[@SheedAlmighty]

Like what

[@jeremykhoo5127]

​@@SheedAlmighty buying fresh water from communities with no water and selling it back tk them bottled

[@sandysamith7218]

What would be your pick between NSRGY, UL and MDLZ? 💭

[@Value-Investing]

none

[@elrevesyelderecho]

Thanks!!

[@blackstarmaster]

As a Swiss guy I am looking at nestle, roche (and othe srong swiss companies) all the time. The swiss franc is so incredibly strong, it would smoke euro (and probably even dollar) denominated gains right away.

[@markus_bit.]

Kei Moral dä Mensch. Typisch Schwiezer.. würdisch vermuatlich sogar dieni eigni Muatr itusche, wenns Gwinn abwürfe würd.You got no moral... Typicall swiss guy.. I assume you would sell your parents, when there could be something to win.

[@pedromiguel-fs7ux]

Good video! Why do you consider the dividend as part of the annual return? Isn't the dividend yield subtracted to the stock price? In theory there's no "profit", only realized income with some withholding tax. Thank you!

[@Value-Investing]

the dividend is earned through the year

[@MiguelMartinezmtzzz]

Diageo could be an interesting one. Thanks fot the video.

[@Value-Investing]

thanks for sharing

[@SireStefan]

You mentioned Dr Martens in a video from 6 months ago, and said it was an ok-ish business. The stock is 50% down since then. Maybe an opportunity? I am not sure whether the latest plunge is an overreaction or an actual problem and would love to hear your opinion.

[@Value-Investing]

maybe, thus not a value investing thing

[@_VlCTOR_]

dividend taxation in europe is prohibitive. only for US I have 10%

[@MrWiffleHead]

What about Doctor Martens .......... DOCS on LSE... you mentioned as interesting before and now it has really crashed, for good reasons maybe, but could it be a value buy?

[@Value-Investing]

Hm, good but always fashion

[@tieme1700]

Thanks for the video. I would appreciate if you did a video on all the stocks in the smi. I'm particularly interested in Zuerich Versicherungen and Swiss Life. Are they good businesses or just too big to fail?

[@Value-Investing]

might do, but no insurance fo rme

[@topperharley4592]

Can you take a look on AT&S. It is an Austrian Stock, a leading supplier of high-end printed circuit boards and IC substrates

[@Value-Investing]

I did a long time ago, they don't have competitive advantages and that is why the stock returned to where it was. svencarlin.com/austria-stock-exchange-list/

[@indian0405]

This is great! I really appreciate your contents! Would you please do an analysis on BABA? Thank you!

[@Value-Investing]

thanks for sharing

[@charlysegaert1506]

Great analysis!

[@bernteinar906]

nice!

[@Value-Investing]

Thanks!

[@JerazEngineer-hz1ln]

Daiken industries DKILY is also trending at 52week low. Any insight around if its a good value opportunity?

[@Value-Investing]

don't know :-(

[@cemen777]

It doesnt look we can buy it in US.

[@Concojone5]

P/E is 19-20x, at 4.80 underlying earnings

[@Value-Investing]

Thanks for sharing

[@LokiTheGodofMischief]

Can you do one on Keurig

[@Sherif8928]

What do you think about UA , it is nearly at all time low

[@Value-Investing]

Thanks for suggesting

[@nixielee]

dunno, they haven't converted the latest 4x debt run into any meaningful growth, everything else stagnant or stable at best

[@cadeneubauer7906]

GL!! 50% haircut

[@Value-Investing]

don't know much about it!

[@paolodr.6140]

you would only consider 50% down from current level?? Nestlè?? better buy good business at a fair price than cigar butts at p/e of 10 because they're mediocre

[@Value-Investing]

thanks for sharing

[@useyourbrain1232]

I prefer Unilever personally

[@Value-Investing]

thanks for sharing

[@zzkzz7727]

Kind of breaks Warren's rule of investing in ethical and honest management. Just a bit.

[@Value-Investing]

thanks for sharing

[@Alexander5400sonne]

I have only one single investment agreement with my wife: never put any money into the Nestlé stock. Grüsse aus Zürich 🇨🇭

[@pascal5142]

why would anybody at your age buy a company that isnt growing much anymore? 10% compounded over 10 years is way better than buying an overvalued bluechip involved in all kinds of lawsuits

[@B2-eo5be]

Nestle is still doing business in Russia, so it is not a buy for me, and I don't care about valuation.

[@Value-Investing]

thanks for sharing!

[@FukenRonald]

Hi Sven, thanks for another great video. Curious about your thoughts on Hershey that is currently facing a problem with the cocoa price (bad harvest)..

[@elementaltamago1297]

SEND IT TO THE TRUCK STOP!!!!

[@ufopiloot]

Not for me.

[@Value-Investing]

:-)

[@crysis3ify]

Nestle is like most evil company now. Like monsanto

[@Value-Investing]

thanks for sharing!

[@marcod886]

Sven, let's be honest... you do NOT really like this stock 😂

[@Value-Investing]

I think I said that also

[@puremathematics8683]

NIO is very cheap right now

[@lorenzom7237]

I wonder why

[@markus_bit.]

good one. :D

[@pedromiguel-fs7ux]

If it's a good deal you shouldn't make that much advertising... Good deals are secret, in any part of the world....

[@Starcraft2Sonic]

I know it looks fine, but I refuse to support these type of companies. Plenty of more "ethical" companies out there.

[@Value-Investing]

thanks for sharing

[@Zanzabar5]

3% dividend in 10% real inflation is weak sauce.

[@pietjan2650]

Investing will play break even with inflation in best cass

[@liban2]

I will not buy because they are abusing the human rights of people in Africa. Absolutely disgraceful company

[@tanzhutasim5282]

No way to get better .Muslims don’t want any Nestle products moor.

[@Value-Investing]

thanks for sharing