Professor who correctly predicted presidential elections shares '13 keys to the White House' | Cuomo

A notable forecaster of presidential elections says "a lot would have to go wrong for Biden to lose." Allan Lichtman, an esteemed history professor at American University, joins "CUOMO" to discuss his predictions for the 2024 election.
#election #cuomo #politics
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[@stevesmith342]

Professor Lichtman is a great professor and an outstanding scholar. I still value the short time that I studied and took his classes. He is not only brilliant but kind and generous with his students. We should all have a professor like that at one time in our life.

[@Idevaughan530]

I’m going to college and I hope I have a professor like him

[@HSfox]

He's a treasure!

[@user-dh8nm2jf3e]

He also. Predicted that there was no red wave comingin 2022

[@mv-db4463]

SOOOO 50/50 is a great prediction ?

[@TheRussianWookie]

@@mv-db4463have 9 in arrow is pretty damn good

[@mv-db4463]

@@TheRussianWookie He rates himself, like the fox guarding the hen house, WOW what a forecaster !!!!

[@user-nc4nw5jr7u]

Thank you professor 🙏🏽🙏🏽🙏🏽🙏🏽🇺🇸👌💙🤍🤍🤍👍🏻👌❤️

[@annakingry9157]

Much of the electorate is too ignorant to know what his "keys" mean. They don't know if they're up or down.

[@jhjhjhjhjhjhify]

You could potentially have a situation where the electorate think there's a recession in the short term (I think this happened with George H. W Bush's re-election bid where there wasn't technically a recession but the long term economy hadn't been great. To the electorate there may as well have been). Inflation on the level we've seen could do that I suppose... But I'm not too sure otherwise. And it's still early days.

[@user-xf4es7eh9y]

much? try most.

[@imnotachessnoob]

@@jhjhjhjhjhjhify I think the short-term economy key isn't as related to Biden, at least based on what Lichtman said. It's more about how good people's life is at the moment, which is often tied to the economy. Even if the perception of it isn't there, people who are doing okay at the moment are more likely to vote Biden despite economic opinion.

[@SHAMSHAM1090]

For perspective on the polls, George HW Bush should’ve lost his first election. And Trump should’ve lost in 2016. Polls miss the mark a lot

[@Columbiagorgekayaker541]

Wrong

[@jerrypeal653]

You’re sighting losses based on mob rule . We reject mob rule in a constitutional republic.

[@TheSportsPROgram]

He actually predicted trump would win in 2016 ( wish he would have been wrong ) when all the polls had Hilary as winning easy.

[@jerrypeal653]

@@TheSportsPROgram rigged polls then is not it

[@Simon-talks]

This guy thought about it a lot more over the past day and determined: Trump 2024 ❤️❤️❤️❤️

[@CityGamer1337]

They literally changed the definition of recession

[@Opinionsrnotfacts574]

Do you have any insight into the global economy post covid? The US is doing far far better than any of the G7 countries.

[@SHAMSHAM1090]

You’d be horrible forecaster because it involves keeping your political preference out of it

[@MM-sf3rl]

@@SHAMSHAM1090👍

[@P.90.603]

Low unemployment rate, high GDP, highest stock market, high construction, etc. Yes, we have an issue with inflation, but inflation is also a result of a hot economy and is not enough to flip the keys. People don't like to use recession because it's a loaded term. I mean, if your income went 10+ years straight to 150k...but then went down 2 quarter to 120k....does that mean you're in financial turmoil???

[@CityGamer1337]

@@SHAMSHAM1090 I’m not even being political… the Fed quite literally changed the definition of recession

[@58twright]

Allan lichtman is a smart man & he was right about 2000 the us supreme court was wrong

[@johnfox901]

He was wrong. Bush actually did win Florida

[@elpipiripau7647]

He chose Biden like a month or so ago. Video is somewhere on here on KZbin.

[@UV_Lightning]

@@elpipiripau7647He is waiting until after the democratic convention to make a final prediction. The recent videos are where the keys stand now.

[@garufia]

@@elpipiripau7647 Didn't see that video, but so far he is maintaining Biden is getting re-elected (so far').

[@ashleysimmer7786]

He forgot the dementia key.

[@harryjove6725]

It's corrupt Dementia Quid Pro Joe (P)resident of a Nursing Home in the White House

[@MichaelJones-yx4zv]

🤭

[@MM-sf3rl]

The Don the Conman injected the bleach. He’s gone.

[@AnnStephens196]

Welp that automatically removes Trump!

[@solenvy]

I agree, and Trump has the worst dementia I have ever seen!

[@P.90.603]

In 2000, the Supreme Court with the help of brother jeb stopped the counting while H was ahead...😅🤣😂. Just count all the votes multiple times until they are completed to see who wins the presidency...not that hard.

[@bigjimtenbillion]

Exactly the same thing that happened in 2020! Funny think is I've seen George Bush and Barack Obama hanging out together at Astros baseball games , hmmm awfully cozy for supposed sworn enemies! We've been played!!! No wonder the Republicans put up 20 nominees to go against president Trump and he tested them all! The uni party hates trump.thats why we need him more than ever!

[@Goldmember66]

Like the old saying of the Dems….”vote early, vote often”.

[@jeffcrusan2102]

In case it wasn't clear... "Why hasn't Biden lost this key?" Key 5: Short Term Economy - This depends strictly on whether or not a recession is declared during the campaign. There is no recession so this key is locked for the incumbent. Key 6: Long Term Economy - This key is determined by real GDP growth during the election year. For this key to be toppled there has to be two full quarters of negative growth. Due to being only five months from the election, there is simply not enough time for two full quarters to pass -- and growth is consistently positive -- so it is impossible for this key to go against the incumbent this year. It is locked. Key 7: Policy Change - The criteria for this key does not require the policy change to be popular. Is this administration's policy different from the last? Yes. Key won, end of story. It is locked for the incumbent. Key 9: Scandal - Scandal must have bipartisan recognition and must touch directly on the president. Republicans have been trying to fabricate a scandal on Joe Biden for four years, going back to before he was even elected. They are not likely to find anything in the time remaining. Hunter Biden has bipartisan recognition, but he is not the president. Robert Hur's report on Joe Biden touches directly on the president, but it does not have bipartisan recognition. Nothing we hear as a scandal in the news satisfies the criteria. This key is locked for the incumbent. What Lichtman didn't tell us in this short time was that for the incumbent to win, they must secure eight keys. Right now, they have secured seven -- the incumbent requires only one more key to lock in their favor to predict their victory. The 13 Keys are not an invention created by Lichtman. They are a discovery of defining factors and principles based off of science. Stability favors the incumbent while instability favors the challenger. They were not decided by any one person -- this is a scientific measure. Many people also do not know that not only has the system accurately predicted every election since 1984, but it makes accurate calls when applied all the way back to 1860. These principles have been the deciding factors for over 160 years, not just 40 years.

[@youknowmyname5695]

Good post!

[@DaveSmith-pm2yq]

A+ The journalism we used to have...

[@jakub.kubicek]

Only person talking sense in this comment section. Thank you for your service, sir.

[@HankSemoreButz]

Except all the keys you listed aren’t the problem. The fact that YOU think they are great and in the incumbents favor is where you are wrong.

[@jeffcrusan2102]

@@HankSemoreButz they are all objective and strictly data driven. I don't turn them, the data does. The data is favorable therefore the economic keys are in favor of the incumbent. No recession has been declared and the last two quarters of real GDP growth have been positive, and there are only five months until the election so it's impossible to have two negative quarters because there isn't enough time. That is not my opinion -- nothing about this is my opinion -- this is strictly what the data says.

[@judithbailey4861]

He always waits until just a few weeks before his final predictions, that’s the reason why he always gets it right, anyone can do that too.

[@jakub.kubicek]

You try it the next time for a few elections, we're waiting for you to amaze us.

[@judithbailey4861]

@@jakub.kubicek I have that’s the reason why I know.

[@jessicamarie8299]

@@judithbailey4861 who do you think will win?

[@Ringsfan1]

He usually has to wait until the summer before to make his prediction, but most recently, He Predicted an Obama victory in 2010 for the 2012 Election!

[@danielbliss1988]

no he doesn't. The latest he's gone was September (in the 2016 race) and the earliest that I know of was July 2010 for Obama's 2012 re-election.

[@uup116]

Just drove by a gas station on the way to the grocery store...The only two keys nobody can deny.

[@BabyBoomersDoomer]

Straight to the crux

[@SHAMSHAM1090]

Nothing to do with the keys. Besides Presidents get elected all the time with higher gas prices than the previous term as well as losing elections despite lower gas prices than the previous term. Learn some history

[@user-bn1bz9yp1k]

What are you gonna say when nobody is driving gas cars yall better come up with a second reason next decade or so.

[@SHAMSHAM1090]

@@user-bn1bz9yp1k where is it written that it will be done gas cars in the next 10 years anywhere?

[@aman-qj5sx]

@@SHAMSHAM1090 All electric by 2035, wasn't that on the ballot here in CA?

[@Jarhead1968]

Well I’m thinking his little system is about to shit the bed.

[@cheesewithxbread]

He has a 100% accuracy rate going back 4 decades. He predicted Trump's win and lost.

[@NancyK-cu6xj]

He wouldn't know it if he did.

[@SHAMSHAM1090]

Wishful thinking. he has a track record and only he can make that call

[@mikeprice4103]

Leave the thinking to others as you know

[@SHAMSHAM1090]

@@NancyK-cu6xj Trump is the only president not to acknowledge he lost

[@scottsmith5361]

This man had really knows his stuff.

[@jayg-lg2ot]

I use to trust him but he has TDS now so unfortunately he is tainted

[@sciencefaction2646]

Translation: anyone who criticizes Trump = TDS

[@dannnyjos]

May I point out that he has a perfect record.

[@cheesewithxbread]

He has 100% accuracy rate going back 4 decades. Predicted Trump's win & lost.

[@breadfan9]

@@dannnyjos 9 out of 10..............that;s not perfect

[@SHAMSHAM1090]

@@breadfan9 he did correctly predict Gore would win the popular vote. Which is what the system was based on. and after that, he started calling the winner of the election, regardless of the popular vote

[@murdacloak406]

i love Allan Lichtman

[@sigsauer7929]

Ok I'll admit his keys have merit, but he is way out of touch for how the keys apply to biden.

[@clynch523]

He has to say it’s less because he’s an islannnndd boiii

[@MM-sf3rl]

272,000 new American jobs in May - Thanks Joe. 💙🇺🇸Biden/Harris🇺🇸💙

[@emmanuel1163]

ironic the keys dont have merit when its someone you dont like. funny how that works.

[@ktermalkut5533]

the PRIMARY ELECTION in a VERY Conservative district of Virginia speaks volumes on trump losing. trump and kevin mcarthy in a REVENGE move endorsed the opponent of Congressman GOODE because Goode had endorsed Governor Ron De Santis before he endorsed trump after the Governor dropped out of the race. Goode voted for mcarthy's ouster and corrupt mcarthy lost the speakership, sad to say to another person who turned out to be FAKE- mike johnson. The DIFFERENCE is less than 1% between GOODE and his opponent. No one can claim the election was rigged. It is a predictor for trump losing in November. He barely has a hold on the conservative REPUBLICANS - how much more his loss of the independents and moderate republicans!

[@carriebailey4455]

​@@MM-sf3rlToo bad you need six of them to afford a place to sleep.

[@Beogoat]

Well, I'm sold. Very persuasive. Heh.

[@khon6339]

can he predict the stock market for me

[@dm95422]

I could use a power ball lotto win myself, 🤣🤣🤣🤣

[@NF_0808]

Allan Lichtman said he was correct in 2000 because he predicted the nationwide popular vote winner and not the actual winner up until that point. In 2004 he started calling the winning, because apparently he had to go all the way back to 1888 to find a divergence between the EC vote and the NWPV.

[@egjohnson7939]

How ya 13 keys doing now, Chee Chee? LOL

[@sub1maz2]

Why we not just count the individual votes?, as most of the countries do?

[@P.90.603]

Because they don't the majority of people to have control, but instead limit the election to a few states.

[@jeremya1018]

Who did he pick???

[@KB0parsi]

Rfk

[@dm95422]

@@KB0parsi Seriously ??? 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣

[@jackboone6794]

Himself, master of the universe.

[@jakub.kubicek]

No one yet, prediction will be made in August

[@ghostridersinthesky21]

@@jakub.kubicek it’s crazy how one can make a prediction that far out from November. A lot can change in three months.

[@michaelro2871]

Do people really want to lose their freedom and rights to a wannabe dictator who is a convicted felon.

[@stevevar4710]

Your momma?

[@Coffeenow111]

We d already lost our freedom and money, this man has yet to be convicted yet. Not yet, as he isn’t stable enough to stand trial? Go figure.

[@keniammartinez83]

Yep😂

[@SCNYC]

Stay with the current senile candidate or someone who the pull out of their bag of tricks & see what happens. Trump was convicted by a corrupt kangaroo court & the world knows it.

[@BenClason]

All fraud charges on Trump were legally misdemeanors. We live under a actual commey regime through Obama NWO puppets!

[@ajs1584]

This election could potentially be the first time Mr. Lichtman gets his prediction wrong for real.

[@johngordonwyland]

Polls are snapshots and pendants have no track record. But another key would be which geographic votes lead to maximum electors per State! Right? Watching from New Orleans, Louisiana, The Constitutional Republic of the United States of America. Basic Political Science.

[@Gary-lz5eb]

Most embarrassing president ever in us history. Poo poo pants

[@jakub.kubicek]

Trump indeed fits your opinion perfectly.

[@P.90.603]

The current and recent president is usually the worst president.....

[@CraftyGrandmaDem]

Donald Trump. It's the Trump supporters that are wearing t-shirts that say "Real men wear diapers' or wearing Trump disposable diapers on the outside of their jeans. But their not a cult. Vote Biden/Blue. Save reproductive healthcare/IVF/birth control.

[@Mystic480]

@@jakub.kubicek, exactly!

[@garybregel1572]

Exactly.

[@mflong100]

I get what he is saying about how he defines short term and long term economic keys, but Gen Z & Millennials do not see those as positives. They aren’t doing well now and don’t see a positive future. Neither of the candidates are really making them feel like they are being heard, at least not enough of them to swing either candidate positively.

[@jakub.kubicek]

That's fine but it doesn't matter

[@P.90.603]

All you did was made emotional statements. The reality is that unemployment is low, GDP is high, high stock market, high construction, etc. Young people are also unreliable voters. If you ask any of thsoe who are complaining if they voted, they will usually say no.

[@mflong100]

@@P.90.603 you know the youngest Millennials are over 30, a demographic that usually does vote.

[@P.90.603]

@@mflong100 I'm the oldest millenials and millenials are generally unreliable voters.

[@jessicamarie8299]

@@jakub.kubicek He lost support of Gen Z and Millenial voters so it does matter!

[@USER936HERTZ]

He forgot the Freemasonry

[@ThePeter1681]

He does not have the six keys now, because he has not heard yet about Democrat cheating again

[@MrWolynski]

He needed a “who counts the votes” key.

[@P.90.603]

Vote counting is not an issue except in 2000 when the Supreme court with the help of Jeb stopped the counting while Bush was ahead. Republicans didn't complain back then. Why didn't they support couting all the votes?

[@FactbasedReality0421]

come on! the vot "fraud" has been proven to be insignifigant! Oh, wait now you will tell me the deep state controlled the analysis.....

[@garybregel1572]

Exactly.

[@ChrissLaCroix]

If Back to the Future 4 existed Alan would be playing Doc calling in from the future telling Chris to “stick to the keys”

[@suzizuki]

rumpo is a dictator out of office, what makes anyone think he wont be worse when in office? rumpo in the oval is like a nympho in a gay bar

[@dstorm7752]

How did he dodge the Vietnam draft? Also, that prof is a partisan Democrat.

[@nautifella]

Using his own criteria, I didn't see *ONE* that favored the socialist dems.

[@mypignest1]

And I can see more of it going against the Felon, the Orange One. Trump for prison 2024.

[@Opinionsrnotfacts574]

Here's a hint - cut out the Kool Aid for one day then rewatch the video.

[@alvinjohnson2402]

You said the same thing in 2020. Yet Dems won in 2018. (remember the great "Red Wave" that fizzled out in 2018??) You do know the definition of insanity right??? LOl!

[@krnpowr]

@@alvinjohnson2402 The supposed red wave fizzled out in '22.

[@SHAMSHAM1090]

Because you don’t understand it and when you read them, you’re just sticking to wishful thinking. The key to being a forecaster is keeping your own political preference out of it. This guy predicted Trump and Biden. he has a show on KZbin in which he explains what the keys mean and don’t mean. Which u clearly don’t understand.

[@Trav990]

Don’t see how anyone can vote for Biden or trump. What makes it worse is that none of them are talking about the real issues

[@tanyasteers4802]

Biden is doing a great job look at facts not bullshit

[@tonespeaks]

@Trav990 What are the "real" issues???

[@ncabcabin]

What are the real issues trav?

[@uup116]

Trump is talking about all the real issues starting with the border and our national security.

[@VoodooDangerbird]

RFK, Jr. 2024

[@user-zf1yq8ew8d]

A LARGE section of silent voters will NOT vote for a candidate unable to offer 1 Policy->MAGA

[@interstategar]

He mentioned the keys but he made no prediction who will win, that I could see.

[@courtneybrubaker9738]

He will in a few months as so much can change but a lot would have to fall for him to lose

[@TC72541]

I have made so much money on the Professors predictions, that I retired early and move to Vegas where its legal to vote on the Presidential race. In 2016 when all the polls had Hillary the Professor had Trump, and I remember in 2020, when I read that Trump was a shoe-in... lol The Professor is never wrong, and don't forget the woman will come out in groves, because of the Roe vs Wade issue. Don't forget the silent majority and the Independents, and the people that were never called about a poll. There both old, but one believe in democracy, and as a Republican, that's what matters most.

[@IndigoStarrAz]

KEY No. 1 - your 401K just hit an all-time high. I'm a Republican and debating how to vote, Biden is doing a decent job.

[@judyhowell7075]

Red

[@r.h.lincoln9889]

Yeah my investments are actually booming under Biden.

[@kev492001]

So, you're okay with Biden ruining the country? We will never be able to get these years back to undo the damage he is causing, better think a lot harder than this if you're going to vote, because nobody should be voting Democrat, it was a foolish thing to do in 2000 and worse today.

[@jessicamarie8299]

He’s doing a decent job with open borders and sending billions to fund wars?

[@ranoutofideassadly]

Your 401K is up and yet the entire world is basically in shambles and war is going on all around you. Having more money in your retirement account isn't an indication that things are getting better. Inflation is skyrocketing, the world isn't safe, the border is a revolving door, and we're still printing record amounts of money as a nation who can't afford to do it.

[@jerrypeal653]

It’s gonna be freedom or scorched earth.

[@seagraverider]

Trump lost get over it 😂

[@jerrypeal653]

@@seagraverider stolen not lost get it right

[@Theresa-lp9dm]

@@jerrypeal653🤪

[@seagraverider]

@@jerrypeal653 how do you figure this 💩

[@kit2564]

WASNT RFK OUT BEFORE HIS PREDICTIONS......

[@74actionjackson]

We have enough evidence to say that Professor Lichtman has it figured out when it comes to the election process.

[@Cant_find_good_Handle]

How is the Afghanistan pullout not a foreign policy disasters?

[@YaakovEzraAmiChi]

😂😂 there is good economy? Wtf he talking about?

[@jimmythornseed8605]

All classic indicators are up. If Trump were president right now he'd be screaming and celebrating about what a great economy he's created and how the socialists want to halt our golden age. Democrats are terrible about economic messaging.

[@anthonyg.4761]

Smoke n mirrors and a lot of people believe it even though the evidence says otherwise.

[@stacybrown804]

All Democrat whatever 😢

[@johngallagher3732]

What an unfortunate name

[@JACKIE19974]

Is Biden gonna lose now? This debate was bad. Why would they stilll let him run if he can’t manage. Granted I was for Biden and I’d still vote Biden but I mean he’s not in good standing right now.

[@realamerican5969]

Trump 2024 is no longer a campaign slogan. It's a guilty verdict.

[@herculeholmes504]

Trial by media. If you look at the actual case, there is no case. It's all theater.

[@ktermalkut5533]

@@herculeholmes504 that is if you are not an attorney and you are brainwashed by the lies online. Even dershowitz whose prime concern is to protect the Jews and therefore favors trump, cherry picks his positions and he does not tell people the whole TRUTH!

[@realamerican5969]

@@herculeholmes504 Sure, Jan.

[@jakesherrill231]

Will be totally overturned ....... Democrat hates The constitution

[@uragannn]

He looks like Craig Groeschel.

[@KingdomFTX]

Ha! That’s exactly why I clicked because I thought the same thing. 😂😎✌️

[@jasonrhouse]

yall took me out with this lol. now i cant get it out my head lol

[@NF_0808]

So, stolen elections do exist after all? Allan Lichtman might be amazing when it comes to predicting elections with his system, but he is a kook when it comes to everything else.

[@alexhendrick8288]

Wrong on foreign failure... Afghanistan withdraw

[@sigsauer7929]

The hamas attack on Israel funded by Iran would have not happened under trump, and it is unlikely we would be funding a war in Ukraine.

[@jonrend]

He has underestimated how the average person is suffering. It might not all be down to Biden but its the reason he will lose IMO.

[@P.90.603]

The average person has always been suffering throughout history...🤣. Say something that makes sense nikka.

[@CraftyGrandmaDem]

Our economy is thriving. 401K plans are surging up 9.6% in 2023 and up 10% so far in 2024. More secure retirement. Unemployment is under 4% and has been for months. Biden created over 15+M jobs, good paying jobs. Biden brought manufacturing jobs back to the U.S. Biden is raising wages, his tourism revenue is surging. Revenue is low because of Trump slashing corporate taxes. Remember that Biden had to correct Trump's blunders and get us out of a COVID pandemic. Peoples say they are doing well, there state economy has improved. Biden has done a tremendous job. The media doesn't say that though. They only talk about his age and forget that Trump is only 3 years younger. Biden 81 -Trump 78. I wonder where Trump being a convicted felon (all 34 charges) should go on this list? Vote Biden/Blue. Save our democracy. Save reproductive healthcare.

[@jessicamarie8299]

@@P.90.603 Okay Tyrone typical nikka response

[@MauricioChicho]

The average person did not suffer under Bush or Trump.

[@P.90.603]

@@MauricioChicho Average people suffer everyday all of history. Bush sent soldiers to die for nothing in Iraq. Economy crashed under Bush. Millions died due to Trump's mismanagement of the pandemic. People lost jobs and businesses.

[@bowtoyoursensei554]

You sure get a lot of crazies watching your channel, News Nation.

[@MollyT-zk4ch]

This is the easy prediction… I can’t wait till January 2025

[@vitolazlo5767]

His system does have predictive value.However, in 50/50 situation and the last 10 elections he got right it is not that much.

[@jakub.kubicek]

That is at least 40 years of elections, you try to live that long first then comment on how it's not that much.

[@edwardbratko9947]

Remember Jan6 -the big lie vote Blue 💙

[@piepie3167]

no

[@edwardbratko9947]

@@piepie3167 go back to sleep.

[@piepie3167]

@@edwardbratko9947 but im not tired

[@PS-kn4im]

That's right--vote out Blue no matter who!

[@thetexican3468]

MAGA 2024

[@KevinWeaver-fv4vr]

I’d like to see this guy in 5 months

[@thepoptarte]

@@michaelkolacz4449 Google is your friend. You can find him everywhere.

[@centralfloridagmrs]

Biden will win this election. I have no Dog in this fight but Trump needs to go away

[@rockrecordreport7136]

@@centralfloridagmrs He's so tainted with scandal, and bad baggage. And the more DJT opens his mouth the more votes lost. Has he won over any new voters since 2020? No.

[@Mr.Familiaoah]

Biden WILL win. AND Trump will cry scandal . Trump hates to loose .

[@jessicamarie8299]

@@centralfloridagmrs dementia Joe needs to go away. We don’t need him ruining this country

[@Lyn777]

Maybe it's too early yet. Have him on later.

[@sigsauer7929]

They have him on to sway our opinions.

[@michaeldaugherty6826]

Wait, he just named a bunch of keys and you said they’re not keys.

[@SaviorA-ZHomeInspections]

Love Or Hate, LET RFK DEBATE! 🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸

[@NancyK-cu6xj]

Love I understand. Hate. It's the nature of the beast. I love RFKjr.

[@Allaiya.]

Yeah it’s bs. They should all 3 debate

[@rrussell9731]

RFK Jr. 2024

[@tedbell4416]

No

[@NancyK-cu6xj]

​@@tedbell4416Too bad. YES.

[@zombusshankus9589]

RFK has no chance.

[@joebuck714]

What can RFK do to appeal to anti-antiestablishmentarians?

[@nirradical]

​@@tedbell4416educate yourself. Tell us why you would say no.

[@user-nc4nw5jr7u]

Love to see MR Allen always

[@umoabasute9424]

#Voters: Note 📝 to all of voters 🗳️ and especially independent voters and those who are concerned about WW3, keep this mind @POTUS Sleepy 😴 Joe’s economic and foreign policies has been a disaster. Foreign policy, look at what’s happening in the Middle East. The people in Gaza.

[@minniemaklin4372]

I like President that aren’t convinced felons! RFK spoiler candidate in CONTENTIOUS debate .

[@tedbell4416]

Fake felonies don't count

[@NancyK-cu6xj]

Four years was enough for me. Thank you. Time for a new chapter.

[@sigsauer7929]

I like RFK Jr. but you need to stop spouting that felon nonsense, RFK Jr knows it so if you support him, you should get a clue.

[@jakesherrill231]

Trump 2024

[@jaxz4986]

Did he accurately predict 2016?

[@vitolazlo5767]

yes according to him,

[@alexanhagopian1446]

Yes and 2020

[@HoveringGold]

The only incorrect one was Al Gore in 2000. People give him a pass because Al Gore won the popular vote in a very controversial election and it was the first time a candidate won the Presidency, but lost the popular since 1888.

[@anitafischer9714]

​@@HoveringGoldGore should've won (they cheated) just like Trump won 2020 (they cheated)

[@jasonrhouse]

sho dit. and i did too! And I’m a lil worried about this election low key

[@niningsetia4213]

Equality is the question Ahut down is rhe answer when lost

[@proudcanadianeh4663]

how does cuomo have a job?

[@MM-sf3rl]

By Don The Conman.

[@shengwu6044]

Cuomo looks like he's struggling to keep up with all these keys

[@TyStraightallker]

I think Professor has thrown Trump supporters into frenzy and panic. It's still too early to panic. Frenzy is due on November 6, 2024

[@P.90.603]

MAGA is crying and trying to trash Allan like they didn the last election.

[@LooxeY]

Allan Lichtman has said in the past that the perception of the short-term economy is more important tha actual data, specifically citing low approval ratings of George HW Bush on economy by Gallup for marking his key false in 1992.

[@burkejones8277]

When I look at the keys, Biden is down in all 13 of them. It blows my mind, regardless of Donald Trump, how anyone can think that Biden is anywhere close to good.

[@FallenAngelBrass]

Doubtful that many people will be voting FOR Biden. Many will vote against another Trump term.

[@mflong100]

He can’t be down on the incumbency key. He is the incumbent. Are you thinking that key is a draw because Trump is a former President?

[@burkejones8277]

@@mflong100 Yes. I know that isn’t exactly accurate, but I looked at it that way because they both have records to refer to that can be compared.

[@CraftyGrandmaDem]

@@FallenAngelBrass I'm voting for Biden. He has gotten a lot done to help the regular Americans and he has a lot of plans for his second term that will help us more. Finally someone that isn't working for the billionaires. If you haven't seen his State of the Union address you should. Then you can compare it to Trump's project 2025. Biden is working for us. Our reproductive healthcare/IVF/birth control. Our Social Security/Medicare. Our child care Trump is working to keep himself out of prison.

[@elle6327]

Trump inherited an excellent economy from the Obama/Biden administration and tanked it by the time he left. He took away reproductive rights from women, his border wall did nothing and Mexico didn’t pay for it, race relations in America were terrible under Trump, etc.

[@_TheLONEwolf]

I hope Alan watched the debate tonight hahahhahahaaah ALAN, U SOOOOOOOOO WRONG

[@mark-xx1lt]

Cuomo you have it wrong. This is probably why I do not watch News Nation.

[@P.90.603]

You didn't explain what he got wrong and made any arguments.

[@KK-111]

Instead of 'predicting' the future, wish that American citizens would realize that they can, and ARE, CREATING the future, by every choice that they make. We are each equally powerful in creating reality. I'm hoping that they will choose to vote in the smartest, most ethical, courageous, competent, and truthful candidate in the race, RFK, Jr. Crossing fingers.

[@jackboone6794]

Henry Ford said history is bunk. He was the most successful industrialist of his time. Not changing party? 15% black votes under 50 switched from Biden to Trump, and still counting. Oh dear. That is not bad enough? The Hispanics, the young. Some people may call that a sunami. But not for a historian and not if has his head stuck in the sand. Is that enough? Get yourself a cup of coffee prof. There is a Starbuck on campus. hehehe

[@jakub.kubicek]

If they did the predictions would reflect that .

[@jbone9900]

No we are not

[@miggseye]

So after all that... what was his prediction?

[@josephfiege9576]

He will make his final prediction in August. However, as of now, keys favor Biden to win.

[@ernestt5703]

@@josephfiege9576How exactly?

[@josephfiege9576]

@@ernestt5703 Biden is only down 2 keys. However, 4 remain shaky. The 4 uncertain ones are 1) 3rd party 2) Social unrest 3/4) Foreign policy keys. You should follow his KZbin channel. Its really interesting.

[@jessicamarie8299]

@@josephfiege9576 But how can he be so sure? it all comes down to who goes out and VOTES

[@Ringsfan1]

Most of the keys are set. The 2 still up in the air are the 3rd Party and Social Unrest Key. Only 1 of those 2 need to go good for Biden, then he only has 5 bad keys and he’s predicted to win

[@shanebeckett1006]

Thanks Professor, but no thanks on your prediction.

[@jakub.kubicek]

Well whatever you like but the prediction still favors Biden.

[@sigsauer7929]

@@jakub.kubicek Not even a little, not one of them by any reasonable measure.

[@dougakizuki100]

I'm 12 out of 12 and I dont even need to do any research.

[@syibrahimtraore8057]

The most important key is the ability to STEAL

[@0d1n253]

well this election is an edge case - razor close - unlike most others . to what extent is turnout a function of his keys?

[@piepie3167]

I only gave each key like 10 seconds of thought but I got 9 in my opinon

[@jerryrooster22]

The economic data shows that well-off people are doing well and everyone else isn't. It's not the message. Could you stop saying it's the message? People can't afford to live the lives they led 4 years ago. Bottom line.

[@tonespeaks]

@jerryrooster22 Even if that was true... Trump for sure isn't going to help things!!!! He wasn't a great president, didn't do much for the economy. Trump was more words than action and when push came to shove, he sent his supporters to disrupt confirming the Election. Not to mention Trump is a convicted of a Felony, he has not place being near the White House, or even Mayor. What many people haven't done, is look at Trump's long list of Court losses before he ran for office in 2015. They forget the number of times, his companies have gone bankrupt. There is a long list of people that he stiffed and many of those were small business owners. It would be nice if Trump, wasn't associated with a Jeffery Epstein, but he was a close friend of Trump. Not Trump's spiritual adviser has admitted to being a predator. I realize that Trump is the man for many people, but most have not looked at the content of his character. For those that believe in the Bible, it warns not to be fooled by those that act like they are holy, when they are not. When people start swearing in Church, because Trump starts a chant... that should indicate that he isn't all that holy......no???

[@NE-Explorer]

He cant predict good dental care

[@AnnStephens196]

How does one predict good dentists? Do you mean find good dentists?

[@bosslady5163]

😂😂😂

[@P.90.603]

But he can predict your wife cheating on you.

[@NE-Explorer]

​@@P.90.603 sorry you have herpes 2 and 3

[@AnnStephens196]

@@NE-Explorer I want you to really take some time and think about the words in that question, and then let me know if that makes sense to you.

[@MarkG-nl4oq]

He’s lost the plot, plus he’s a fraud.

[@jakub.kubicek]

Agree, Trump is a fraud

[@sigsauer7929]

@@jakub.kubicek Better choice then a traitor.

[@user-jb2ks2cc4z]

Alan is 100 % correct. 😊

[@Cubanbearnyc]

....using his own criteria, he is admitting Biden defeat, yet he resists saying it.... but point taken !

[@TyStraightallker]

Point taken. Don't hold your breath...

[@jessicamarie8299]

He won’t lose because dems will find a way to cheat.

[@Ringsfan1]

He said a lot would have to go WRONG for Biden to lose. As long as Social Unrest doesn’t get too bad and/or RFK Jr. doesn’t become popular enough, Biden is predicted to win

[@Homebound233]

Couldn’t get past his eyebrows, not really sure what he said😂

[@jakub.kubicek]

Love your comment

[@shanegrim5421]

From his lips to gods ears.

[@andrewjones2222]

He’s still sour about 2000! Why isn’t he focused about getting 1888 wrong too? Or his system falsely being able to account for Trump losing the popular vote in 2016?

[@P.90.603]

Just facts...Supreme Court with the help of brother Jeb stopped the counting while H was ahead. Why couldn't they just count all the votes completley multiple times???

[@denniskillian]

Kennedy for President of the United States in 2024

[@ShirlBussman]

YES!!!

[@NancyK-cu6xj]

I think RFKjr is amazing. He's smart, passionate and very suited to be our next President. He'd have an amazing cabinet. We Could sleep at night.

[@TheSportsPROgram]

for president of the mental asylum .....

[@Engelhafen]

I’d add vice presidential candidate

[@donniemoder1466]

He milks this 13 keys thing for everything he can get.

[@frankdillon6127]

forget the polls, yes, in this day in time trust your eyes and ears. Trump as of today has the election big time.

[@ktermalkut5533]

the PRIMARY ELECTION in a VERY Conservative district of Virginia speaks volumes on trump losing. trump and kevin mcarthy in a REVENGE move endorsed the opponent of Congressman GOODE because Goode had endorsed Governor Ron De Santis before he endorsed trump after the Governor dropped out of the race. Goode voted for mcarthy's ouster and corrupt mcarthy lost the speakership, sad to say to another person who turned out to be FAKE- mike johnson. The DIFFERENCE is less than 1% between GOODE and his opponent. No one can claim the election was rigged. It is a predictor for trump losing in November. He barely has a hold on the conservative REPUBLICANS - how much more his loss of the independents and moderate republicans!

[@P.90.603]

Worst than the polls is to rely on yourself. You have to ultimately look at the data.

[@sigsauer7929]

@@P.90.603 What a moronic statement. You have to use logic, reason, your own research, and facts. That means you use facts to evaluate the data, including it's accuracy and context.

[@ktermalkut5533]

@@P.90.603 maga doesn't care about facts, statistics or the facts

[@Coryclemmings]

Brilliant man. I see what he's saying: The overall metrics or "keys" are not determined by subjectivity but actual data as recorded by official groups. So the feeling that the economy is bad won't affect the election so long as the actual economy is not bad. I feel a little less panicked after learning this; hope it holds.

[@razzberry1262]

Im glad you think the US economy is whatever Nvidia is doing.

[@bigjimtenbillion]

The actual economic situation is beyond "bad" it is dire. Just this father's day I saw a phenomenon I have never seen before, hot dogs and hot dog buns being sold out...this translates to a record number of people struggling to get buy. Car dealers are full of inventory, no one is buying EVs anymore or ICE vehicles Many people are maxed out on their credit cards and the average American has less than 500 available for an emergency. Many businesses are closing and commercial real estate is in BIG trouble, you won't here it on MSM Star wood properties ( one of the largest property owners in the country) is on the brink of collapse. Norinchiku bank ( the fifth largest bank in Japan) is stuck with ten times the bad debt as SVB ( silicon valley bank) reporting $63 billion in losses ( which means the real number is much bigger). Dollar tree is now dollar twenty five tree meaning inflation is running at at least 25 percent and the fed can't really cut rates anymore and is afraid to raise them anymore. Rents keep climbing and just about every fast food restaurant with any sense is closing down in California due to the 20 dollar minimum wage Crime has skyrocketed since '20 And we have a wide open border with violent criminals slaying Americans It's beyond bad

[@Coryclemmings]

@@bigjimtenbillion this sounds like u didn’t watch the video. Ur metrics of the state of the economy will not determine the election and, as the expert highlighted, is not based on anyone’s feelings but as indicated by some official body further, perhaps, acknowledging a state of economic recession.

[@heathermichael3987]

Because we know who is boss is .

[@heathermichael3987]

He is not predicting he is being told .

[@user-jv6km5vh8j]

he telling us biden going to win

[@MarkShy-sz8zo]

Depression comes

[@Infini-Tee]

Like Chris said Biden has already failed over 6 of these keys so what Alan saying is contradicting his own 13 keys system 😂

[@jakub.kubicek]

You're clueless and biased.

[@brighid13]

Someone is paying for him to say this.

[@aln5832]

You have to approach it by a non-partisan thought process.

[@basketball2671]

Go, Biden! Vote Blue!

[@shumishaffy8573]

How about other candidates