No One Believes Tesla & Elon Musk

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I worked at Tesla starting in July of 2017 as an Operations Analyst out of the Bethlehem, PA distribution center facility and left as a Program Manager based out of Austin, TX as of September 2021. I spent most of my time in the distribution and supply chain organizations.
Before Tesla, I was a Director of Business Intelligence and Pricing at the largest Pet Food & Supply distributor in the US, Phillips Pet Food & Supplies based out of Easton, PA. My wife and I also owned a small business in Bethlehem, PA between 2016 and 2019.
I have been a shareholder of Tesla since 2012 and currently own Tesla stock. Nothing I say constitutes as investment or financial advice.
My thoughts are my own and are not representative of everyone who currently works, or has worked at Tesla.
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Twitter @farzyness
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[@farzyness]

Farzad Clips: www.youtube.com/@farzadmesbahiclips

[@AquarianSoulTimeTraveler]

Im mad 😡

[@qkktech]

You acctually can run Robotaxy business model without FSD. That is what Uber competitors do in Europe. Bolt Inc is Uber biggest competitor in EU an Bolt Drive service has allready killed Robotaxy in countries it is used. Germany is not done but all baltic states are done by Bolt and Citybee where about 10% passanger car trips and 50% taxy market and car rental is gone to those services. Compute prices are going down when Bolt has something like 200k cars in fleet what they own then they can order from car makers special edditions and add their own software .

[@marcusm6082]

No one believed Tesla, SpaceX, Neuralink, etc. were possible, yet here we are. I'd never ever bet against Elon.

[@yanly9936]

@@marcusm6082 that’s so right respect

[@lukeknowles5700]

Don't forget cleaning up X and turning it into the best social media site.

[@codeater8400]

Except on his timeline predictions lol

[@davidsun5428]

People just don't believe the timeline until the product about to launch. Many delays and no one want to price in something that might not happen soon.

[@macabrew]

@@codeater8400 what are the timeline predictions of your life? I'd imagine not executing in like 5 massive companies

[@raybod1775]

Companies have ups and downs. Tesla can ignore short term investors and invest in its future. I don’t see other U.S. auto companies long term outlook to be as good as Tesla.

[@LunnarisLP]

thats not the debate. The debate is if the outlook for Tesla is more than 10x as good as it is for e.g. GM or Ford. Because thats what the market cap is implying. Gotta make a lot of robotaxis to ever get close to that. Right now it seems like even just a cheaper car will take well into 2025, maybe even 2026 and volume production likely 2028. Thats the company many thought would produce up to 20m cars a year in 2030. Things are looking pretty rough these days. Of course they look worse for GM. But again they looked the same for GM and Tesla then Tesla would be trading at maybe $30 a share right now and they are not. So the question isnt really if Tesla is a good company and will be successfull, it is if their success will be in relation the their current evaluation on the marcet.

[@Dularr]

You sure about that. You really think The Model 3 and Model Y will last 100 years?

[@RyoshiKuraOka]

The concern is the Chinese companies, not the US auto makers.

[@Duelosaurio]

@@RyoshiKuraOka why?

[@bunsw2070]

Legacy auto companies are a joke (except Toyota) but the benefit they have is they could make EVs, hybrids and ICE vehicles. My best guess is that if western governments don't step in we'll be totally taken over by Chinese autos in the process of being pushed out of autos all together. What this is really all about is getting us out of owning autos. Easier to pretend to go clean and then declare it a failure then just tell people up from they can't own an automobile. With the way they're doing it they can blame it on physics or uncooperative consumers.

[@jamesdillon3320]

FARZAD!! Tesla Lovers!! Do not let the FUD deter your passion for this amazing company!! Stay calm and carry on!! Riches await in the long term!! Greetings from the amazing shores of Lake Huron!! Ontario , Canada!! GIDDYUP!!

[@craighermle7727]

Is incessant hype ok though?

[@bunsw2070]

Emotional reasoning on steroids. It sounds like you're down on your Tesla gamble? Feelings don't change reality. EVs don't make sense. Never will. Europeans live in apartments and have no place to charge. North Americans have too far to drive and too extreme temperatures and driving conditions. The global south knows global warming is complete nonsense and don't want to throw away the portion of refined oil that is gasoline. Even if an EV battery could be made that was 120 lbs, didn't catch fire, lasted 500,000 miles, gave 500 miles of range and cost very little to make, EVs still wouldn't make sense because of thermodynamics. The problem with you EV fans is you think electricity comes from the Electricity Fairy. China is big on EVs because they get electricity from coal and want to keep those generating stations away from cities. Wind power only breaks even for CO2 production after 15 years and only under the most optimistic assumptions. Solar never comes close to breaking even. Without oil we'll be back to living in caves. Modern civilization happened because of hydrocarbons. When you eat, you create a little more oil debt. When you feed your pet, you consume a little more oil. Everything is created because of oil. No amount of emotional gymnastics will change that.

[@atlanteum]

I believe him. I believe enough to have bought more Tesla yesterday as soon as I saw the dip -

[@markthomas7279]

I think Macro is against you into the election. Mid to late Sept looks a better time with view to 10/10. I have gone to a larger cash holding with this in mind.

[@rioriggs3568]

I tested FSD for 30 days last months. It’s not only far from ready but it’s unsafe. There’s no way we can even dream of removing the pedals and steering wheel any time soon. And that’s in perfect sunny conditions. It’s decades from being ready. Claiming it will be ready next year with the current processing power onboard is a joke only fanboys believe. Tesla’s main business model is claiming technologies will be ready “next year” that’s what’s keeping the stock price above $40-$50.

[@t33sher]

@@rioriggs3568 I agree that the initially released version was a little Shakey, but i have 12.5 now and its quite amazing. i use it all the time and it's the real deal.

[@thecorrectoification]

Same. The drop made my tummy flutter with excitement and I grabbed more shares. Short-Term volatility, Long-Term gains. Tesla is essentially a Large-Cap Growth stock while also hitting the much sought after Value Premium simultaneously. And the market is currently only pricing in the growth while undervaluing the future P/E.

[@ticketforlife2103]

You guys are delusional

[@PakmanR3]

TSLA will 10x from here over the years. Don’t get fudded out people!

[@maverlk7]

The evidence says the opposite

[@alans.philippines]

100X. 1000X ! 1000000X !

[@markthomas7279]

​@@maverlk7I think growth is more likely than decline. No one really knows what growth there will be but pretty sure it beats the S&P over 10 years. So it's a better bet than the index and 10x is certainly possible.

[@phillicus]

Short sighted traders. It’s fine. Better for us

[@alans.philippines]

@@phillicus it isn’t even beating the S&P.

[@the_danz]

People love to freak out and so easily forget the past and future.

[@TheArtofValue]

Lol, forgetting the future?

[@bunsw2070]

Elon's predictions are the worst in world history. Remember Tesla's massive overvaluation because their cars were all going to be Robotaxis that would make you money while you slept? That was supposed to happen over 5 years ago. And they still don't have self driving cars. Probably never will. Maybe in cities with 6G and every vehicle having a transponder. But they'll still get fooled by a plastic bag floating in front of them.

[@DLAmy]

Mc Donalds needs Robots so we can keep 5.00 meals

[@friedpickles342]

Pay $5 to get "edible" quality garbage

[@SpaceTravel1776]

I've been hitting that $5 McD's meal HARD. Order it in the app, get points, use the points for iced coffee.

[@joewreckingballbiden9156]

@@friedpickles342 Much better than paying $15. now for quality edible garbage.

[@robinpenfold4733]

I remember the $3 happy meal.

[@SpaceTravel1776]

@@DLAmy I’m basically living off the $5 meal. Love it.

[@mary2al]

A robot “Changing a diaper” I see you have a lot of real life experience 😂

[@nickmcconnell1291]

The masses of drivers are not interested in a self driving car that they have to babysit. As soon as it can drive itself with no one in the car THEN the demand will be incredible. Everyone wants a chauffeur that can take the kids to soccer practice or pick up groceries for you. No one wants to sit behind a wheel and have to concentrate on what is happening all the time. If you have to do that then you might as well drive yourself since driving can be enjoyable. This is the singular reason for the low adoption rate of FSD. As soon as it becomes truly non-supervised demand will explode.

[@T_Time_]

Tesla is at vulnerable point using NM as the main source of their AI for driving. It’s not hard to build input and weights for a large NM for only driving. It’s just expensive to train it. An example would be chatgbt, a year ago nobody would have believe that another company would come close to what they are doing. Now Chatgbt isn’t even arguably the best. The biggest factor is how much data they use to test on. Because it is impossible for them to train all of the data they receive. They have to pick and choose. They probably only train on less than one percent of the data they receives. Which is enough, a lot of driving is redundant.

[@ricinro]

If FSD proves itself safe given a few years of real world data AND there is a FSD insurance discount then it will be purchased as a luxury option. Folks on a tighter budget will save money by driving themselves. I am thinking that FSD will be mandatory (like seat belts and airbags) about the same time people accept and demand FSD for a fee.

[@nickmcconnell1291]

@@T_Time_ Uh you might be confused as to terminology. Tesla is not using a Large Language Model for its FSD. It is a neural net but not a language model. It doesn't process language at all... it is taking in real time video and making decisions based on that.

[@nickmcconnell1291]

@@ricinro This is why I bought FSD outright. I hate to be nicked and dimed via subscriptions.

[@T_Time_]

@@nickmcconnell1291 yeah you’re right, i was talking about Neural Networks.

[@ricinro]

Unfortunately the reality of the Tesla brand being hurt due to Elon's politics never makes it into a quarterly report. After the election some of the noise will settle down.

[@davidfidler1174]

I know you know, but you mentioned regulatory credits and the IRA credits in the same sentence. This could lead to more FUD from those who think Tesla is supported by the government. Reg credits aren’t paid by the government, they come from Tesla’s competitors. You know this, but others don’t and I hear it way too often in the media.

[@tnelly6588]

The credit payments to Tesla are from other OEMs, but they are forced to pay because of a federal mandate that cars hit certain emission requirements averaged across their fleet. Trump could, and likely will, attempt to repeal that mandate (as well as the IRA), especially if Congress maintains a republican majority when he's in office. I firmly believe these recent statements from Elon saying that removing all subsidies, incentives and fed rebates will be good for Tesla are absolute BS!!! If the IRA is repealed, $7500 will be added to the cost of a Tesla overnight and that will throttle back demand massively!

[@davidfidler1174]

@@tnelly6588 I know they’re from other OEMs, but some people think they’re paid by the government. Which was my point. The mandate is actually more global than US mandated. The same rules apply in Europe and I think many other countries. I disagree that removing the IRA will be bad for Tesla, the OEMs will be obliterated by it (as far as EVs go). What I’m more concerned about is if Trump gives the $7,500 to gas and hybrids as he’s promised to do.

[@LunnarisLP]

Okay, but why do these competitors have to pay them to Tesla? Thats because of government regulations. So essentially The government is taking money from "dirty" companies and pushing that money towards companies like tesla. We can of course say that this is a good thing, but pretending that this is not a support for Tesla created by the government seems like a really weird take.

[@4literv6]

@@tnelly6588 most teslas sold between 2019&2022 had ZERO tax credits here in the U.S. as tesla ran out of them&didn't get anymore until the ira renewed tax credit access. Even then it wasn't all model's that qualified and wasn't for the full $7,500 amount until recently. So the truth is the vast majority of teslas sales we're accomplished without any direct U.S. based gov ev credits. 😎 And the zev credits are paid for by competitors not us taxpayers via the gov. And tesla also pays taxes on them! 👍🏻

[@protectanimals9792]

No one believes Elon ? A little click bait in the title ? Elon is Elon. As a shareholder it’s both exciting and not easy. I wish Elon had stayed like Switzerland, but there’s no going back now. When a CEO is so much the company, politics seems like not a good idea. But who the hell knows where we’ll go from here. I’m tired of the massive political divide like a lot of people

[@SashaXXY]

I don't understand how anyone can get past Elon saying that his trucks will beat rail on efficiency. He actually said it in front of a live audience and its out on youtube for anyone to see. How can anything he said be believed after that? What he claimed there is physically impossible. There is no truck -- electric or otherwise -- which can even remotely compete with rail. Not even close. Compare the efficiency of a steel wheel on a steel track to the efficiency of a tire on asphalt and just like that, its over. Done and dusted. There's no contest -- nor even a possibility of one. A cargo train can transport a ton of cargo 600 miles on 1 gallon of fuel. What are Elon's trucks going to do against that? Break the laws of physics?

[@richpalmisano1740]

Reg credits were in place prior to the IRA...

[@swhbpocl]

Imagine autonomy will be a flop in the end as a certain (large) fraction of people simply does not ever want to let go of having full control themselves over the vehicle.

[@BallyverganFarm]

Agree. This is totally overlooked..

[@iandavies4853]

Yeah, still using stone axe.

[@davidbrayshaw3529]

@@iandavies4853 Not quite the analogy, I would suggest. Still owning the stone axe and controlling how hard it is swung and what it strikes is more like it.

[@benjaminmeusburger4254]

agree - i know a lot of people who don't use advanced cruise controll for that reason why buy an expensive car/software to not drive, then you could also just take the bus and don't waste 50k on a car p.s. Tesla does not even try to register for lvl3. They will never take responsability for FSD and it will stuck in 'beta'/supervising mode forever.

[@davidbrayshaw3529]

@@benjaminmeusburger4254 Tesla are in the position now where it would not serve them well to suddenly and miraculously solve the FSD puzzle. Their stock price is driven by selling hope to dopes. FSD is already priced in. Delivering it, and the likely disappointment that may come with it, probably isn't going to serve the interests of shareholders at all. Tesla's solar tiles, roadster, semi, model 2, robot, Johnny cabs aren't about delivering a product. That's why Tesla has a "mission statement" rather than a prospectus.

[@larsnystrom6698]

You are right! Investing today is like investing 2018, a little early, some risk. Wall St will jump on the train in two years, when there's no risk and much more expensive.

[@DonBrowningRacing]

Don’t worry about short term volatility! Most of what we call volatility is sophisticated Wall Street AI Trading sites in operation.

[@jwlafferty]

@@DonBrowningRacing absolutely, we saw the market open with institutionals stop loss hunting. Does anyone actually believe the share price crashing moments before open was natural? I'm waiting to sell another weekly call on TSLA and knew that open was BS and would recover.

[@charlespichan9619]

In our world today when the leaders all say NO, you know you're doing the right thing. (They are all so scared of change)

[@LunnarisLP]

All leaders are pushing for electrification? The only reason Tesla still exists is subsidies and emission limits?

[@charlespichan9619]

@@LunnarisLP and the ones in America are pushing for the wrong reasons. They need to let the free market system do its job. And the concept of subsidies is a silly point because the oil industry still get subsidies. All the automakers except Ford and Tesla got a bail out from the government. If it's not done the governments / politicians way, they don't want it.

[@robertboudreau8935]

I worry that FSD, even if perfect, will not be accepted by a lot of the public because it will be too boring. People want to drive recklessly. The cure for that is to have higher insurance costs for those cars using human driving. The second cure is to have FSD fleets making money.

[@AC-cg6mf]

I think there is a risk to overestimate the interest in FSD when you are an enthusiast. I think a lot of people just think that they can drive themselves and save a hundred bucks per month. FSD is cool and all, but not a necessity.

[@friedpickles342]

I'm driving delivering doing stuff on the road all day long and as far as I'm concerned the more garbage drivers the FSD replaces the better it is for me the safer it is for me

[@iandavies4853]

You are missing the forest for the trees. Robotaxis. Productivity for those who can afford own Tesla. Who still uses a manual toaster? Washes dishes or clothes by hand?? Why do dumb stuff if machines can do it better?

[@davidbrayshaw3529]

@@iandavies4853 I catch taxis to the airport, or home from a restaurant if I've had too much to drink. Is that going to change? And how many people are going to want to clean out their car every day?

[@iandavies4853]

@@davidbrayshaw3529 and pay off their car in a year or two? Who would turn down that opportunity?

[@davidbrayshaw3529]

@@iandavies4853 We'll see. There has been a glaring absence of any sort of market research pertaining to the robo taxi. That troubles me. I just can't see people giving up the autonomy that owning their own car gives them and all of a sudden choosing to use Robo Taxis instead. Robo Taxis will compete squarely with rideshare/taxi services, neither of which are what you would call "get rich quick" schemes.

[@hanstandt9587]

Elon said, 2024 is a transition year. Big thing after 2024!

[@swhbpocl]

Said the same about 2023…

[@hanstandt9587]

@@swhbpocl ? show me the video. He never said that abot 2023. ?? OK, you don't see it, fine by me. Bye

[@davidbrayshaw3529]

"Elon said" is the 21st. century equivalent of "Once upon a time... and they lived happily ever after". It doesn't matter what you put in the middle, chances are, it's a fairytale.

[@swhbpocl]

@@hanstandt9587 not exactly the same words but something in line with “do not expect anything regarding the stock valuation, maybe buy the dips” Investor day 2023.

[@RyoshiKuraOka]

FSD, Robotaxi, and Optimus may take significantly longer than Musk anticipates to return any profit to the company (and Tesla's history would indicate it probably will). The majority of the funding for these projects comes from the sale of EVs. Tesla needs to maintain a significant level of profitability on EVs or the future is at risk. To maintain their position in the market they must quickly introduce an upgraded Model Y and introduce a highly successful lower end SUV/Crossover (not a lower end sedan) at volume. The stock markets concern is that they perceive the AI projects as a distraction and don't see adequate focus on maintaining the "auto" business.

[@iandavies4853]

Doesn’t Tesla have $26 billion cash on hand? They don’t need to keep making stage coaches. Cornering future markets is better option.

[@rogerstarkey5390]

No worries about the products...... Read into that what you will. Its recoverable, but reputation is down.

[@davidmartin7685]

I'm going to say something unpopular. For the record, a Tesla MX sits in my driveway. It's my second MX. Both Teslas I've bought are topnotch. No one else makes anything close. I'm going to try and convince a friend's SO to buy a Tesla over a Range Rover next week. It's not about the cars. That margins fall as EVs become cheaper and other players enter the market is natural and normal. It's not that. There is no real economic reason for the slowdown. Most developed economies have recovered from COVID. The supply chain problems are basically gone. Tesla continues to innovate and the cost of its vehicles falls as it makes them more efficiently. All pretty much following the norm in a disruption. It's within the norm that traditional auto and their lackeys in the press continue with the FUD. That is what threatened players do to try to defend their livelihoods. It's not about any of the above. For years, I defended Elon Musk tirelessly on the net. I don't do that any more. I saw him as a visionary, an innovator who came along at the right moment when the world needed someone like him to get the world out of ICE cars before it's too late. He performed that task admirably. Everything he (and Tony Seba) predicted have come true. Yet, Tesla sales growth is slowing worldwide. Sales in California dropped 17% last month YoY. Why? There's no obvious reason for it. The what is Elon's big mouth. Who buys Tesla cars? It ain't the Billy Bobs in their Ford 150s, never has been and won't be for a while yet. Tesla's core customer base is people who understand the threat of climate change, appreciate and rush to adopt innovation, and tend to lean left in their politics. Not all, but the bulk of them. I messaged Elon that buying Twitter would be a big mistake, urged him not to do it. I was right. Plenty of CEOs hold conservative views, probably the majority. What the others don't do is to run their mouths on their personal politics 24/7 on an internet platform. They don't espouse positions loudly at every opportunity that turn off their core and potential customers. When Elon sticks to EVs and rockets he's great. When he delves into politics, which he can't seem to avoid doing, he is a disaster. "Elon" has become a dirty word outside of Tesla/SpaceX. Difficult to say but it's true. Elon has become a liability for Tesla. (And I'm anything but happy to come to that conclusion).

[@shunfangin7645]

Totally agree with you.

[@liammullan2197]

You have to worry about a guy whose motivation is supposed to be a sustainable future but who finances a presidential candidate who believes climate change is a “hoax”

[@iandavies4853]

Or about an admin who declare AGW a priority, then persecute only org taking serious action. Changing to the 1/64 First Nations DEI candidate won’t help.

[@iandavies4853]

@@liammullan2197 yeah, but you are missing context. Really, Musk is in top 0.01% in IQ and in engagement in society - are you in position to offer advice? Biden Dems have acted in support on his union donors. Fish rots from the head.

[@Kosmophilos]

The groomers shouldn't have gone after his kid.

[@liammullan2197]

FSD doesn’t work. What part of this are you not getting?

[@iandavies4853]

Probably the bit where so many people rave about how good it is (not perfect, but amazing).

[@gregspeth7910]

I heard about Tesla at the beginning, I thought big money would unalive Elon before they would let him succeed. I may have bought in late $220 a share . But I am all in

[@thetiredtourist3927]

I like the honest take. My fear is the new affordable car will be a cheaper Model 3. The FSD take up rate is slow... because it's not full self driving. So why would I pay big money for a product that is not functional. Tesla drivers are raving about driving for 2 hours with no interventions... it's nowhere near good enough. I always thought 2030 at the earliest.... and don't get me started on Robotaxi... or the nut that is Cathie Wood.

[@jonl9192]

$25k car will bump tesla to 3-4m vehicles a yr

[@BrunoHeggli-zp3nl]

Yes maybe in 2030!

[@croomcas]

Can’t wait till my Tesla PowerWall 3’s get here. I’m waiting on the robot!

[@billyrio3767]

You're blaming TRUMP for getting rid of credits when MUSK, HIMSELF has pledged he'll be happy to be rid of them as long as the competition is also treated the same, including the Petro Industry.

[@BBDigitalArts]

Another great one my man, a really well rounded video. Congrats on the podcast and clips channel, got editors working overtime 💪🏽😂

[@Bmeri3]

How did I get FSD 12.5 before Farzad? And I’m still on a free trial!

[@drdave3969]

Demand is a problem. I meet so many people that think charging costs more than gas, you need an expensive special battery pack to charge at home and much more...

[@thirdplace3973]

It’s as simple as EPS revisions keep going down which is making the valuation not make sense. Need EPS revisions to go positive to see more share price growth.

[@marktrulock3323]

There are many differences between now and 2018. Tesla is much more established in the market. The elephant in the room is Elon's behavior. How many dollars have been lost due to Elon's Twitter acquisition? I have been able to get one friend to buy a Tesla, he loves his model y. Everyone else has said that they don't want anything to do with anything associated with Elon. It's not a supposition to say that the majority of Tesla customers are Democrats or Independents. Neither group wants anything to do with Elon's shift to the far right. The tipping point has arrived where Elon's genius is outweighed by his madness. Thanks

[@paulkearsley9509]

Problem: As much as I like Tesla and Elon,I don't believe a word Elons says when it comes to dates and performance (remember Cybertruck was supposed to do 500 miles for 40k). I feel Elon, picks dates from his ass

[@YellowRambler]

Not 100% sure about DoJo becoming a product in itself as Elon stated that DoJo was not a general-purpose GPU like Nvidia GPU, but instead a specialised neural network training system System for their own purpose, it would only be valuable to someone with the same use case scenario as Tesla.

[@iandavies4853]

Yes, but what a use case! Like saying an application restricted to laptop computers, or to those with own mobile phone. This is the future.

[@ellichka08]

For me to spend $99 a month it would have to be not supervised. What’s the point of spending money and look at the road if I could just look at the road and drive myself

[@audience2]

Tesla are getting there. Unsupervised driving will be more valuable to a taxi operator than to an individual that occasionally uses their vehicle. There will probably be multiple price plans for various categories of user.

[@keilder8543]

All it takes for you to get in an accident is a momentary distraction. That's not if, it's just when. FSD is focused 24/7/365 on the road with 8 cameras 📷 vs. your 2 eyes. At the moment of the accident, you'll wish you had got FSD. Also, at some point, having FSD will lower your insurance costs.

[@davidbrayshaw3529]

Would you really spend $99 per month on FSD even if it wasn't supervised? That's $1188 per year. That's a couple of week's rent. It's a month's worth of groceries for a small family. It's a couple of months worth of car payments. Maybe, if you're spending hours in the car every day and you can use that time to generate income remotely, you might choose that option. But for a lot of people, they'll see the simple act of driving their own car as an opportunity to save $99 per month. A penny saved is a penny earned, as they say. And a lot of people simply don't have a spare $1188 sitting around at the end of the year.

[@keziasarah]

It will be given away free soon, Elon lives in cuckoo land thinking the majority of drivers want it - They don't! - Its a rich boys toy....

[@cooltune]

Just had a look at Tesla's chart. That thing can go to 550-600 range easily.

[@jovan51212]

Absolutely! I am also losing faith

[@rioriggs3568]

Sure FSD might perform well in certain streets of SF. But it’s a disaster in so many conditions (snow, heavy rain, constructions, detours, underground tunnels/parking, etc.).

[@ironborg6405]

@@rioriggs3568 exactly, on Texas highways I was really disappointed. Even the basic cruise control pisses me off sometimes with its random braking on the highway. Leave my speed where I set it!

[@dertythegrower]

No.. its proven in Michigan, in rural towns... 😂 you know zero son

[@dertythegrower]

​@@ironborg6405Wrong.. dirtyTesla proves you all wrong..for weeks and weeks of video

[@dertythegrower]

dirtyTesla.. proves you little kiddos wrong. For sure...

[@ironborg6405]

@@dertythegrower maybe the new version? I’ve tried 12.3.6 on Texas highways and it’s not bad but also not great. Random braking, gets the speed wrong, brakes on flashing yellow lights on highways, aggressive acceleration, got way too close to a semi truck taking a curve on the highway, enough that my passengers got very scared and I was embarrassed.

[@warbuzzard7167]

I think the big problem is that people keep hyping the advances that aren’t particularly important or impactful. They seem to want to pump the “next big thing” to be seen as “on the cutting trend.” This forces investors to constantly seek shorter term outlooks, so disappointment arises from continuously missed projections. Ain’t gonna get better until major improvements and a modernized fleet that is available at competitive prices is able to be affordable by the common worker.

[@FirkraagAurel]

FSD is like 8 years late. The hyped Teslabot will not arrive until 2035, if at all.

[@jenniferning2945]

Tesla is not cars only company. Tesla should use FSD AI technology to develop other FS devices such as for seniors/disability people and home service with Ai on human interaction chat and physical helping. The cost of AI FS home service should be cheaper than human caregivers and can be paired monthly as FSD now.

[@geofrey01]

And that is a 10,000 unit a day market. I'm 74 and I'm hoping my TSLA makes enough to buy an Optimus slave to help me reach 120.

[@sambira]

And the market discounts the ZEV credits but those credits are paying for FSD, AI and Robots that Tesla is developing. They aren't nothing and are not worthless and are expected for some time to come as even Trump can't wipe away the IRA or need for ZEV credits overnight no matter what anyone thinks he can do.

[@martincday007]

@@geofrey01 The only problem with the assertion that Tesla is "More than a car company" is that Tesla are only dominant in EVs and even that domination is being challenged. When it comes to Robotics, driverless vehicles and AI, Tesla are not the market leaders in any of those fields and in most cases, are years behind those that are. Last Tesla earning call, EV business in decline and everything else vapourware but no worries enough Tesla investors like what they hear so on they go.

[@victorngo8749]

Haven’t seen this idea before. Cool!

[@victorngo8749]

@@martincday007 even if they’re not market leaders in EVs or robotics or energy, their vertical integration practice and culture will ensure - in every vertical they’re involved in - greater margins, and improved pace of tech advancement adoption. They’ll keep more cash and can carry over engineering improvements between products more smoothly.

[@famnyblom6321]

Robots are probably coming in large quantities faster than we realize. The question is if Tesla is too early like Meta was with the metaverse.

[@AntsDrone]

Also Elon becoming so political and right wing is not going to help him or Tesla at all.

[@richardfahrney7139]

You are an honest Bull. I appreciate you.

[@IntoTheFray.58]

Let the short sighted analysts and institutional investors continue to undervalue Tesla. I need more time to build up my position in Tesla. Thanks for the extra time!

[@richardcosgrove1661]

Everything that is said just remember Black rock owns over one hundred eighty million shares of Tesla . 5.90 % of Tesla . If u think they cannot move the stock price . WAKE UP ❗️❗️

[@paulmcgreevy3011]

No OEM would pay a licence for FSD. Say a manufacturer had to pay $ 1,000 licence fee per car per year to Tesla for a minimum of 1 million cars they produced each year. Year one would cost $1 billion, year 2 would cost $2 billion and so on. Tesla account would be boosted by $1billion in year one which puts the OEM at a 2$ billion competitive disadvantage. Year 2 would be a $4 billion competitive disadvantage and so on. Tesla would have so much cash coming in they would then be able to wipe out their competitors at will. Even if Tesla only charged $100 licence fee per car per year that would still enable them to crush their competitors.

[@russelldeanna9198]

Interesting comment. I suppose Tesla would sell an FSD license for a certain amount of money for the year and the price would go down each year unless the user upgraded to a newer version of FSD. You buy a Ford with Tesla FSD and year 1 it is $1000, year 2 $800, ... You pay more if you upgrade FSD.

[@costiqueR]

Nope, it is more simple: usual people do not test themselves the new technologies. They need to have that done by somebody else, and trustable. Put robotaxi on the roads with no problem and tell to the people that they have it on their car. And I bet all will activate it...

[@keylime2998]

Elon is against regulation like these credits, which have propped up Tesla for years.

[@iandavies4853]

Not quite right. Many incentives are poorly structured to reward "rent seekers" (economics term). Hybrids, hydrogen are examples. Others are structured to support union employment, safety net for failed Legacy Auto.

[@cascadiadesign]

With the country being so divided, Elon has little to gain by being so public with his politics. He has a lot to lose. Smart CEOs keep their politics out of the headlines.

[@codycast]

Yet 99% of CEOs can be openly democrat and there is never push back?

[@shunfangin7645]

Their candidate is not a sex offender and a convicted felon.

[@johnmoniz3169]

​@@codycast You just made that up. Are you now expecting us to take your word for it?

[@keilder8543]

Amen! Agree 100%

[@tmaori]

@@codycast99% of CEOs? In what world?

[@user-xu9zh1ui1t]

It’s just hard to see EVERYTHING he says will happen just continues to get pushed back much farther. For years now

[@markthomas7279]

Your glass is half empty. You are counting the failures, not successes. Innovation is hard. VCs would be happy with 1 in 5 successful projects. Musk is way way higher than that. I think you have to change your view or else sell your Tesla.

[@danharold3087]

GM for sure and perhaps Ford has pushed back more BEV production than Tesla.

[@LJ-jq8og]

WRONG... Most of what he has said has already come true.... Sell your stock then !

[@user-fb8jb5yi6g]

12.5 is amazing.

[@justanotherbozo]

While FSD is impressive, it will take years before it can perform as well as a human. I have two situations within a mile of my home that require inputs and decision making that FSD can't adequately navigate safely. Without additional refinements to FSD, human inputs/interactions will remain necessary.

[@jumbothompson]

Tesla has record cash yet people are freaking out.

[@rioriggs3568]

All that cash, yet FSD is improving at an ultra low speed and a Model 3 is still twice the price of a Corolla despite the giga casting and new batteries.

[@gfish9636]

"Ulta low speed" Lol Boob

[@rioriggs3568]

@@gfish9636 Compared to Elon who’s been saying “next year” since 2018. It will take decades before FSD can be unsupervised in all driving conditions.

[@michaelcorbi7335]

I’m a Tesla bull but 30 billion isn’t that much when you’re investing in new models, robots, FSD.

[@rogerstarkey5390]

​@@rioriggs3568 You mean the 3 is 60% the price of a BMW? O... K

[@seyednoorbakhsh8458]

If the FSD price is lowered to $5000 then there will be great number of people, including me will purchase the software. Price is definitely a factor for me and I truly believe it's for many tesla owners.

[@bunsw2070]

Tesla's investment in AI is almost nothing compared to competitors. To think that Tesla has made significant advancements is a stretch. Elon was bragging that their vehicles could be switched over to being Robotaxis by 2019.

[@MR-qe9ve]

We always talk about how good the business model will look when FSD and everything else works. Yes, it would be a multi trillion dollar company, but the basic thing is the FSD hast to work where you can actually have Robotaxis. I have FSD, but realistically, I don’t see it running as a taxi currently. Maybe in a year, but I am not tech savvy enough to understand what it takes to get there. And it doesn’t really help Elon sounding distracted again. He seemed really focused in the last call and the months following but now he’s going nuts on X.

[@timlions1820]

I think FSD uptake is more of a cost issue than it is confidence in the product. FSD increases the vehicle cost by nearly 25%. Hard pill to swallow.

[@shunfangin7645]

Tesla needs to offer its own insurance with a discount for FSD subscription.

[@iandavies4853]

Do you work in fast food, for Amazon?

[@ralph4704]

It's future potential is out of sight, what else do you need to know? Look what VW did in the 60s, the every man's car. Today that is going to be known as Tesla.

[@user-fb8jb5yi6g]

FSD 12.3.6 is 5:55 pretty solid. 12.5 reports are promising.

[@conflictionated387]

Musk's claim that the potential sales of a (totally unproven in market terms) humanoid robot is 20 BILLION - that's one for every person on earth and 12(?) billion more for industrial use - deserves extraordinary skepticism. The fact that he makes these claims on earnings calls should be totally alarming.

[@ricinro]

optimism is a type of delusion. Elon is overly optimistic. Only a few people, whose job hasn't been taken by AI/robots, will own or afford a robot. Most robots will be owned by a handful of corporations that will own/control the means of production. If a State was in this position it would be considered communist but if is a handful of oligarchs then it is feudal.

[@iandavies4853]

Limitations on economy cease to exist once labour is essentially free. In bygone era, plantation owners had hundreds of slaves. We can replicate that era, but without guilt. Yes, it blows our minds. Why isn’t this discussed on current affairs shows? In parliament? How many of the 20 billion will be on the way to Mars? Or working in Mariana Trench? In Sahara?

[@conflictionated387]

@@iandavies4853 I agree that general AI driving massive automation will totally revolutionize human work activity. It's just not a reliable revenue stream/valuation component for any one specific company.

[@elmonty79beta]

The only times I don't believe Elon is when he tweets crap unrelated to business.

[@shunfangin7645]

Elon is his own worst enemy and is not helping us Tesla investors.

[@jondcarson52]

...which is all too often. I had several thousand shares until recently, but I am out now. I am retired and don't have the time to burn. And I am not crazy about someone that would abandon a child. It is a cold, cruel world out there...we all need the support of our parents, regardless of how uncomfortable it may be for them.

[@iandavies4853]

Cancel culture.

[@shunfangin7645]

@@iandavies4853 I can support his innovative leadership and talent but I don’t have to support his endorsement of a rapist, convicted felon and an insurrectionist. I teach my children not to vote just for pocketbook, character is important. Elon showed his character when endorsed Trump and I am extremely disappointed.

[@iandavies4853]

@@shunfangin7645 Biden-Harris administration persecuted Musk, tossed $billions at Legacy & unions. Shameful behaviour, utterly dreadful, unproductive, toxic, corrupt. Both sides are playing to win the game, consequences be damned. We don’t yet know how much Musk is supporting various candidates, just that he has a super-PAC. You are basing fervent opinion on gossip by vested (opposing) interests.

[@billyrio3767]

I'm voting for TRUMP to save the USA but certainly admit that his views on 'EV' are ignorant. He needs an invite from ELON to GigaTexas for the tour, the education, and the Cybertruck 'wakeup' experience. And the whole business about 'towing' is an anachronism. Step up to the Modern era and get a trailer with batts and motors of its own. These are much more convenient than 'neutered' equipment from the past Century.

[@jaydubya9265]

As an investor I’m finally starting to see Tesla for more than the cars.

[@michaellovell3145]

Good synopsis of Elon’s comments last week - he is an inspiring visionary!

[@rbarnes0154]

I subscribed around 1st April and am a major techie. We have been stuck on 12.3.6 for months with no fixes or updates. I watch many self driving videos touting or bashing the system but want to be part of the experience. Am patient but will soon cancel if no updates. Also I want to see starlink available as an option. Politics does nothing but damage the brand so Elon needs to quit being so political. Its Fremont and China kicking ass not Texas or Germany. Don't want to lose all the best engineers as they are most likely in California not Texas. Also don't crap on your biggest market in US which is California by far. I'm from Florida which is one of the biggest markets. I hope we stay that way!

[@AmateurInvestments]

I have 515 shares and we should get a pretty clear view on 10/10 what our money has been working on. I’m excited but I’m fully aware this could also be a let down.

[@bmurphy666]

Thanks for mentioning that about the Credits & the OEMs. That's exactly what I was thinking to myself but thought it was strange no one else was talking about it. Credits should continue to go up considering OEMs can't sell EVs.

[@roryblake7311]

Farzad: Do you think it may be due to Elon's political promise to support a particular candidate with 45 mil/mo.?

[@iandavies4853]

Lies.

[@roryblake7311]

@@iandavies4853 just a guess...

[@susymay7831]

Robots, power capture/ storage/ transmission, AI, watches and an ecosystem, self driving, leasing technology, selling credits, charging stations, and more. Oh.. also car sales. 🤖 🚗 🤖 🚗

[@not2busy]

I think most companies won't buy a lot of robots. Perhaps a few may buy a large number and then rent/lease them to other companies that need the functionality but cannot afford to invest in ownership. Good segment. I think you hit the nail on the head on everything you talked about.

[@s_k12]

Hope FSD 12.5 will be available on HW3 soon. Waiting... My current version 12.3.6 is OK, but not enough to make me feel Robotaxi is coming in the foreseeable future.

[@Peter-hg2oc]

Why would you pay for Full Self Driving when it’s not? It should be free until it’s is.

[@zencone]

Some think Tesla would benefit from a more robust sensor suite. Perhaps infrared sensors as Sandy Munro has recommended. Cybertruck has camera squirters, when will other car models have this feature? I suppose Cybercabs will have camera lens squirters. Personally, I look forward to having an opaque insulated roof option with solar on the hood, roof and trunk lid.

[@aleksandarjordanovski1216]

There is always professional hater’s, and always will be, jealousy because they know where Tesla goes and how they are changing the future.

[@Lyngbach]

I like this both pro and con approach videos a lot more than the pure bull Tesla approach. This is, imo, a way better method of showing just how uniquely positioned Tesla really are. 👍

[@MaxEmberson]

Yes true 12.5 is a game changer. What if Elon for FSD simply gave a real date for Dec 2025 and launched FSD Robotaxi in a simple but safe city like Charlotte and gets some solid driverless analytics each quarter like - safest taxi service, cheapest service. Then simply expand this to other cities and more cars as FSD upgrades to 12.8 and 12.9 etc. Simply put they prove to investors that it works in a simpler area to operate Robotaxi, then expand to larger cities as the software upgrades. We can see FSD can operate safely and well in Charlotte sized cities by Dec 2025. Then as Elon runs his own cars in the network - they make huge margins on his Tesla Robotaxis - then investors can be confident that cashflow, revenue, profit will be super strong. And all Tesla owners are a part of that network.

[@mediacafeonlinellc8728]

Just think how bad Q2 would have been if there were no EV credits

[@PanouTV]

Good morning, Farzad, Thank you for the videos. On October 10th, Elon should introduce a Supervised Robotaxi fleet that includes cars from Tesla owners worldwide (in as many countries where it's authorized), until FSD becomes fully autonomous. This initiative will likely propel the sale of more vehicles, both from individual Tesla customers and investors looking to add to the fleet. Additionally, Tesla will attract buyers who simply want a Tesla for personal use and are not interested in the fleet, creating an additional source of income. This strategy could significantly benefit Tesla's bottom line, making it a win-win situation for the company and its shareholders. But knowing Elon, he may not want to have a Supervised but a fully autonomous Robotaxis fleet. The downside of Robotaxis, however, is that it could displace current drivers in the taxi industry, impacting their jobs.

[@rosnow]

I think the more basic concern is that Musk doesn’t seem as committed to private car ownership. As if car sales won’t matter in the future because of AVs but consumers and investors dont agree. They both still expect cars to be bought for personal use and 1) Musk is harming that business with some of the most engaged consumers and 2) products don’t cover a lot of model types that consumers want. Van, hatch, more low key truck, 3 row suv.

[@alanponikvar3921]

Elon needs to drastically cut the price of FSD. Just get people using the technology.

[@shunfangin7645]

FSD take rate will increase dramatically if Tesla offers a cheaper insurance along with FSD subscription, I think.

[@boumarc]

$TSLA should be a great buy around 165-170 soon

[@odderret]

Great video! Defines a lot of the different things that are all in the air at the same time.

[@sireel]

Elon isn't doing us investors any favors with his far right leanings. I still believe in the long term potential, but I wish he'd stay out of politics.

[@APPLEJUICEJENNY]

I was fine with Tesla's no advertising policy, but now Elon is doing just the opposite. He is engaged in negative advertising for Tesla with his political narrative; backing Trump, his hissy fit about California's trans-gender policy and now his daughter calling him out for what he is(gee, I wonder where her autism came from). Sales boycotts are tanking sales in California, which has 35% of US Tesla sales. I still love Tesla's mission, can't we just stick to that! Elon is as much of a child as Trump.

[@shunfangin7645]

I totally agreed, love my Tesla Y and all the innovations Tesla is working on, hated Elon’s endorsement of Trump. It’s confusing and disappointing. Tesla will lose sale in CA and WA the two largest Tesla market, people buy car for utility and identity not to mention with emotions. Just cancelled my Cybertruck, don’t need the attention. Wish he keeps his politic to himself. From his daughter’s description, he acts very much like the father he hates. 😢

[@NickMackenzieMD]

I know people who will never buy a Tesla because of Elon's politics. That is just a fact. I don't know anyone who has refused to buy a GM vehicle because of Mary Barra.

[@zombyfrank]

@@NickMackenzieMD I refused to buy a Bolt because they are inferior products without a reliable charging network. And I was seriously considering one at first. Went with the Model Y.

[@NickMackenzieMD]

I didn’t buy a Volt for the same reason and bought a Model 3 in 2018 but who the GM CEO was had nothing to do with that decision.

[@MarkSpohr]

Elon's erratic "leadership" is generating serious doubts.

[@danharold3087]

Because Tesla is a big boy and needs to grow up?

[@paulmcgreevy3011]

Elon is not erratic he’s the world’s most successful entrepreneur and he’s progressing all his companies and Tesla is investing heavily in the future. Institutional investors are worried by him because he doesn’t conform so they don’t give him credit. The same applied to Bezos for many years of no profits at Amazon. Apple had a similar period. When investments in computer power, technology and products come to fruition institutions will deal with the reality of the generation of enormous cash flows into Teslas accounts.

[@audience2]

Elon is correct on almost everything, including things the far left don't like.

[@Agnemons]

@@paulmcgreevy3011 According to Benjamin Graham markets are, in the short term, voting machines and in the long term they are weighing machines. If that is the case then market analysts are stuck in the voting stage when it comes to Tesla and Elon because they have nothing to weigh until the product or service actually arrives. So looking to analysts for future value is a fools game.

[@dangrass]

I'm a long term Tesla car owner and investor. I believe that Elon Musk has done more for mankind than any other human in my lifetime. Having said that, his need to freely express his every thought is harming this company. While Musk has a right to believe whatever he wants, he also has an obligation as the CEO of a public company to act in the best interest of the company. Living in the San Francisco Bay Area, a place where every other new car being purchased 2 years ago was a Tesla, it is clear that Musk has managed to alienate the very demographic that has been key to the success of the company. Perhaps it shouldn't be this way, but this is the real world. The effect of this is for Tesla to have to slash prices. Instead of commanding high prices for a premium product, Tesla is now having to give away excellent product at cut rate prices. It's pathetic. While Musk is correct in saying that this is a difficult macroeconomic environment, I would pose a simple question. What would Tesla's Q2 financials have looked like had Musk not alienated Tesla's primary customer base?

[@shunfangin7645]

Yes. CA and WA 2 very blue states and is Tesla’s largest market in the US, people buy car not only for utility also for identity. I am concerned sales will go down . I just cancelled my Cybertruck, don’t need the attention. Wish he keeps his politic in the voting booth.

[@apollo1464]

If you build it they will come. From “Field of Dreams”.

[@mikebaker3152]

Auto GM affected negatively by slow and difficult Cybertruck ramp. Loss making until later this year.

[@MegaMijit]

$99/month or $15,000 is wayyy too much on top of a $50k car.. like DLC & microtransactions in a $70 game

[@jaydubya9265]

I recently had the FSD trail and while I do miss it I can’t personally justify the 99/month for how much I would use it. If they would cone out with a pay as you go tier maybe that would increase usage and maybe even convert ppl to the 99 monthly.

[@arahim1112]

Excellent recap of the current state of Tesla ⚡️

[@SM2005_]

I think Elon should take Trump out in a Model 3 performance and show him what the car can do. lol.

[@timrobertson8436]

Elon's track record for profitable ventures and products: 1. Hyperloop, 2. Solar City, 3. Twitter/X, 4. The Boring Company, 5. Neurallink. All failures and massive losses of investments. Elon's promises for products that do not exist on the market: 1. Robotaxi, 2. Roadster, 3. Tesla Semi-truck, 4. Full Self Driving, 5. Humaniform robots, 6. Low cost Tesla EVs, 7. Trips to the moon, 8. Trops to Mars that were promised years ago, 9. X-AI, 10. Reliable Cybertruck, etc. . .

[@jamesmoore560]

The time is darkest just before the dawn.

[@damienwade7848]

If robo taxes are the future, why are people concerned about car sales? You don't need a $25,000 car. You need robo taxi to work Right!

[@rogerstarkey5390]

Baby steps. "The consumer" isn't ready for that 😉