None Of The Fundamentals Justify The Current Market!!!

[@ishmaelmcgoo2945]

Probably the best evidence-based investing channel on youtube.

[@Value-Investing]

thanks!

[@marke6638]

When Sven say bullish expectations of analyst it sounds like bullsh*t expectations. Which also sounds correct.

[@Value-Investing]

:-)))))

[@SergiMedina]

Thank you, Sven, for showing the data and sharing your experience, being realistic but also not too bearish or pessimistic at the same time. Just what reality is.

[@Value-Investing]

My pleasure!

[@davidbergamelli4773]

Mitico Sven.Thanks for your insight, valuable as always.

[@Milad_Morgan]

Sven, may I ask why you stopped the youtube portfolio? It was amazing process where I could understand in details why you buy and sometimes even sell a good stock. What happens when stock goes up or even down. If possible for you please bring it back.

[@Value-Investing]

yes, will do, I stopped just because the broker cancelled the free account!

[@mktwatcher]

Luv your analysis of Wall Street Market & Earnings projections. You are very smart Sven and I definitely agree that we shouldn't swallow everything they try to sell us but should test everything they pitch us with a healthy dose of skepticism.

[@Value-Investing]

that is the message!

[@matejmohorcic9820]

Can you publish link to data source? The graph are very interesting.😀

[@Value-Investing]

Just search JpmGuide to markets

[@SuperSavageSpirit]

With the current debt to gdp i dont think the interest rates will be able to stay up for 5 years before something irreversible breaks and they fold under pressure, then print money and create more inflation to get us out of the rut. I knew for a year now they would have to go a lot higher than what they expected when they kept telling us "we seem to be near restrictive enough", and i also dont believe them when they say they wont use QE again. This time recession, next time depression

[@johngalt5166]

I completely agree. I know high interest rates suck for a lot of people but my opinion is that interest rates should rest at a much higher floor from now until the near future. The low interest rates we have seen in recent years from QE are simply unsustainable in my opinion. But idk what I'm talking about and I don't really know anything about macro economics and clearly the people running the West don't either so I guess we will just have to wait and see. To clarify I agree that its F'ed but still think we should keep them high because it will hurt either way, just sooner or later (and politicians are great at kicking the can down the road.)

[@theWebWizrd]

You guys have a few contradictions in these posts... I fully agree that many countries, espeically the US, need to use inflation to remove debt. But that strategy is contingent on *lower* interest rates, as compared to inflation. It is counterproductive for them to increase interest rates, because it reduces the efficiency of the inflation as a tool to remove debt. They had to increase the rates somewhat (for appearance if nothing else, and negative interest rates in real terms can't be *too* high) but it would make sense for them to keep interest rates lower than they should be and in a higher inflation environment that it otherwide should be for a while.

[@trappart9209]

​@@theWebWizrdthanks for sharing

[@Zanzabar5]

P/Es of a lot of oil stocks are 5 or 8. Seems like solid numbers to me.

[@paolovita1720]

Those numbers are solid and attractive in the current environment, but don't forget that oil stocks, like all commodity producers, are highly cyclical, and always look cheap at the top of their cycle.

[@Value-Investing]

add another war and those will shoot up even higher

[@soylentgreenb]

This is how cyclical industries look. If there is a recession and $30/bbl oil the PE ratio goes towards infinity. If there is a war or major production cut or something the price can go to $150 and PE ratio down to 2. That’s just how they are.

[@fantasy9917]

So what would you recommend? I started investing as a precaution against inflation, because I started working just as we were hit by 15% inflation and realized I cannot simply save for an apartment. Hoard cash, inflation eats it. Buy stocks, they will crash (that's why I focus on dividends). So what can a man do?

[@weho_brian]

DCA into an large cap index if you just want safety

[@Josh-zq7pq]

Inflation eats cash but more so on daily goods. Assets and large items like cars are expensive and could come down - if they do, was it better to hold cash in a money market account at 5% or hold stocks that may have dropped down with assets? Your best bet if you’re saving for a house less than 5yrs out is save in high interest account, ignore all of this and focus on increasing income. Increasing your income 10% is much more in your control than whatever the market is going to do

[@fantasy9917]

@@Josh-zq7pq It's unrealistic to save enough for a flat here under 20 years. With some stock market success, maybe I could bring it down to 15 years.

[@Nordic-pirate-ray]

New Camera or sth. Changed at rendering? Content and design = great value

[@aliasname602]

How does the Fed remove currency from the money supply? It seems like trying to get a genie back in it's bottle.

[@LowHangingFruitForest]

High interest rates mean less loans which lowers the velocity of money which is the largest force in the US money supply.

[@pongop]

Thank you!

[@DXfan105]

I have an impression you record your message first and then pick and choose some random statistical bits to support your assertions. Plus a lot of sloppiness with the data - one slide shows US inflation at 4.39%, next slide it's 3.7% ( correct number).

[@niceguy3148]

US markets are the only place with earnings growth in the last 10 years? Seems like a classic case of GDP growth not being correlated with stock market gains (due to issuance/buyback of shares, dividends, shareholders constantly being creamed in emerging markets)

[@MrCheerios2011]

ok Sven but what do we do then, give us some way of investing our money with all this in mind. Sitting out for the next 10-15 years with current levels of inflation is also not an option. So what then?

[@Value-Investing]

that is investing, you can't know now what will happen in the next 10 to 15 years, as I said here: for most people 5% now is excellent kzbin.info/www/bejne/laSaq2pqZrhmgrc

[@soylentgreenb]

Predicting the economy in about a year is doable. Predicting anything about the economy in 15 years is laughable.

[@kobezcarz4558]

Im adding to my positions. Maybe the last bull standing. Im long. I dont care if the price is right

[@Value-Investing]

well said, if the price is right

[@wilsonjudson1650]

Inflation has a greater impact on people's cost of living than a crashing stock or housing market, resulting in an immediate and tangible effect. This explains the current high level of negative market sentiment, and our need for assistance in surviving this challenging economy. The financial markets have underperformed due to fears of inflation, causing stock and bond prices to plummet. Despite sounding basic, consulting a financial advisor has enabled me to outperform the market and achieve a profit of $850,000 since June 2022, making it the ideal approach to enter the financial markets today.

[@yuikiyoshi1248]

Since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, constructing a solid financial portfolio has become increasingly intricate. Therefore, I strongly advise anyone facing difficulties to consider seeking professional assistance. By doing so, you can access tailored strategies that specifically cater to your individual long-term goals and financial aspirations.

[@PonderDuke]

So what will happen at the end of the debt cycle? Just the market crashing? And then we will see which companies are swimming naked and which ones are not? We should be able to see that now before it happens.

[@danilodrocco9180]

not quite, simply no real returns for years.

[@rnegoro1]

Japan.

[@Value-Investing]

it is already happening, two years of low returns, no real returns on bonds, inflation.... then, you can't predict, but....

[@filip9220]

And since this was posted the market has had one of the biggest rips in history. Stay invested

[@Value-Investing]

investing is about risk and reward

[@pjviitas]

Thanks for taking the time to share Sven...good stuff

[@CroncAstronaut]

Ok, so what's the conclusion? Not to invest anymore until the crash is coming?

[@PshikolAriel]

No, conclusion is subscribe to his platform, he will tell you what to buy (sarcasm)

[@gregorsimon9337]

The conclusion is to buy the right stocks.

[@jdr4674]

Bonds are more attractive for now.

[@gregorsimon9337]

@@jdr4674 Bonds will fall if interests rise.

[@towTruck42]

Well, don't invest in the top 10% of the SP500! Keep looking for good values. Bear in mind the overall economic conditions. There's always businesses which outperform, but if you aren't looking you won't find them.

[@JD5014]

hi sven great video. is there already a video or an article to the cycle you mentioned at the end? this would be interesting to read/watch

[@leestringer]

www.youtube.com/@principlesbyraydalio

[@Value-Investing]

read Dalio's books!

[@pellahar]

What if MMT is correct, or at least onto something? The outlook would be much more promising.

[@Value-Investing]

definitely! It is also very possible, but not a thesis I will bet my life savings on!

[@Josh-ge1cr]

despite the fact yields can go higher, I dont know why you wouldn't start a position in long term bonds. they are yielding 5%, which is great risk free return. they are yielding more than my student loans, even with taking into account federal taxes. there is no incentive for me to pay down the student loans as I make more money paying minimally into them and taking the rest of my money and putting into long term / short term T bills in a 3 : 7 ratio. as yields keep climbing (and rise above short term), I will move half my money into long term bonds. I welcome 6 - 8% yields as cash is king in this environment.

[@Value-Investing]

at the end, it is all relative!

[@rocar38]

Why when you can get shorter duration for same yield

[@soylentgreenb]

Long term bonds seem incredibly risky. If interest rates go to 10% you instantly lose much of their valuation; so you so you have to hold them to term if you want your money back and you missed out on those higher interest rates. I’d much rather have short term bonds; because the leverage to the upside or downside is small; you’ll get about what you expected.

[@Josh-ge1cr]

@@rocar38 because short term rates are more volatile and I want to lock in high rates, which makes sense in my specific case (student loans)

[@Josh-ge1cr]

@@soylentgreenb I don't think they are "incredibly" risky. Yes, everything has risk, but I highly doubt the market can afford 10% rates much less 5% as cracks begin to show. Most of my bond holdings are majority in T bills anyway. It's not a bad time to lock in long term rates if it fits your investment horizons, which for me, it does. Everything has inherent risk.

[@johnmonk3381]

The only thing you are right is you can't predict the future. But I also think the market is fairly valued at this point based on the current data that is available and like you said, nobody knows the future. Unless there's something that happened that caused the market to question this currently "fair" valuation, the market can go down AS WELL AS UP. BUT what's the point of being an investor if you can't be optimistic?? History has also shown equities outperformed all other asset classes, over the long term. With pe of average sp500 company around 17, the rate of return is 1/17=5.9% which is still more than 10 year Treasuries are yielding. But don't forget equities has a chance of growing that rate of return, while fixed income does not.

[@FobosLee]

But the caveat is that out of all countries that are doing bad, US is still does better, and out of good economies… well, there’s none today.

[@EdwardMascoff]

China is starting to look very interesting again, JD's already at $24.50 per share. Could the same scenario as last October be elapsing again?

[@GeneralBays]

The Communist Party is locking down as much currency in its system as it can, especially foreign investment. China is also way more volatile than they put out officially. Honestly, if you lie to me to make yourself more pretty, I will expose you for the harlot you are, & that place is run by harlots that lost control of their system & population. Have you ever watched "China Uncensored"? Accurate news in China never comes from the liars in charge of the country. Many independent news agencies call them out for their lies. Did you hear about the coming collapse of Evergrande? It's been zombiefied into a slowly dieing corp due to them being a final pin in the economy. If Evergrande fails, China will be in a faster death spiral. The current spiral was started due to all the "coof" lock-ups in China over the LAST two years.... Guess China never learned that an economy, by definition, needs people working & buying for it to exist.....

[@junxu6519]

Investing China isn’t a good idea for recent years.

[@hman2912]

​@@junxu6519maybe that means it's time to start investing

[@scottiebumich]

​@@junxu6519nonsense. Best time to invest in a LONG time

[@runabath]

Productivity is the market if goes up the stock market goes up

[@Stallion925]

great video

[@Value-Investing]

Thanks!

[@gimhuatong4977]

Like your analysis. Very true. Agree. 👍

[@Value-Investing]

Thanks!

[@fmg4537]

Thanks for the update Sven! Heard uranium (like Cameco), gold miners and emerging markets will be the best investments in the future. Maybe a video going over this would be helpful for the rest of us to learn from your intellect😅

[@soylentgreenb]

Cameco is a good company; but at their outrageous valuation I don’t see how it can be a good buy.

[@Harry_S._]

I need to relocate to Oelwein

[@unktzor]

Great video!

[@au81512]

Current market PE is 17. Yeah it’s at fair value.

[@apc9714]

I think you are forgetting the positives though, so the picture is not as ugly. For example, government are still borrowing at a lower rate than inflation, (especially actual inflation) which makes it less unsustainable, (difference paid by sabers and pension funds). Same for earnings. Other things equal, nominal eranings should increase at least as much as inflation (assuming margins stay the same)

[@johnristheanswer]

* more sustainable

[@HS-PGA]

after the GFC who would have thought just 10 years later the uptick in and growth and debt levels would have occurred at the time . ?

[@jerryyoung6494]

Ugh. Don’t like the message but it makes sense. I do like your bike art

[@Value-Investing]

thanks!

[@gavasiarobinssson5108]

How do you invest in Vietnam or Philippines?

[@masterjointu]

ETFs

[@Value-Investing]

you speak the language, live there, have a local broker :-)

[@kkp4297]

yes, this is why I'm shorting the whole market. wish me luck

[@Value-Investing]

good luck

[@crohmer]

we get it, you're bearish

[@Value-Investing]

no, I can't predict, I can just look at what is and adjust with what fits me well!

[@elrevesyelderecho]

First!

[@dexterhatchet3529]

thanks for reminding us over and over again, makes it easier to not fall for any hype 👍👍👍👍

[@Value-Investing]

:-)))

[@yuikiyoshi1248]

I'm not kidding when I say that the market crash and high inflation have me really stressed out and worried about retirement. I've been in the red for a while now and although people say these crisis has it perks, I'm losing my mind but I get it Investing is a long-term game, so focus on the long run.

[@Youtuberkt]

When did the market reflect the fundamentals? Almost never 😂. It’s only how much out there it is .. which is based on anybody’s opinion

[@drscopeify]

The US National debt is much smaller then it appears for example 7 trillion of the debt is actually positive cash as Inter-Governmental debt out of that 7 trillion around 3 trillion belongs to the Social Security Administration which was paid in to by 80 years of Americans paying for Social Security and the USA only distributes the interest from that holdings for the Social Security programs so the around 3 trillion is locked away. So when you look at the US debt of 33 trillion around 7 trillion is owed to the US Government itself most counties would use a Sovereign Wealth Fund but the USA just buys it's own debt in order to provide the world with Treasuries. Once you subtract the 7 trillion the real US debt held by anyone outside the US Govnemrent is 26 trillion and from that another 6 trillion is held by the FED so the total owed to the world is 20 trillion which is what? 70% of GDP? Not too crazy if you ask me.

[@elrevesyelderecho]

12:37 Conclusion: we are f***

[@zagreus7680]

where did you see the growth of GDP on borrowed funds? 17.3% of government spending from 28 trillion is 4.8 trillion. This is spending without borrowing funds. With borrowed funds 6.2... So you are wrong in taking away borrowed funds from the GDP component, because they simply are not there.

[@dodiloi]

I bet anything that an investment in a nasdaq etf today will beat you over the next 20 years

[@johnristheanswer]

​@tysmith2366 There have always been tops and they go higher still over time.

[@Value-Investing]

well, if you made that bet 20 years ago, when the Nasdaq was at its lows, you would have lost :-)

[@naderjavanmardi7868]

I have been watching your videos in the past 4 years and unfortunately, I see that day by day you are becoming more biased. Your stock evaluations are less quantitative and more opinion based. Your opinion about China and EMs are one sided without mentioning the risk of investment there. BABA and META are prime examples of your misjudgment in the past. You strongly advised Gazprom before the war and failed to mention that Russia has risks and the discount that investors gets on these stocks actually reflects these risks. Same pattern was repeated here. I think there are more objective resources on KZbin to spend time on.

[@genericusername5909]

Not forseeing the invasion was such a rookie mistake

[@OlegScherbina]

​@@genericusername5909if a country has a dictator for 24 years now, the aggression against the neighbouring countries is more than likely.

[@maxf5868]

Agreed

[@Value-Investing]

ok, thanks for sharing! I'll keep doing my thing and making money as I made on Russia, BABA and also META. thanks!

[@PshikolAriel]

@@Value-Investing You haven't make money on META and BABA, stop lying. Gazprom indeed you made money, but for similar returns I could buy sp500 with much less risks

[@Metal_Stacking]

I laugh when they say the economy is not in recession. You can not add 1.4 trillion of debt spending into the real gdp. The games they are playing will end in devastation for the U.S.A and the world.

[@wolf-yw9wk]

people are not rational. markets aren’t just math. people don’t respond to hypotheticals all the time. if the last 3 years has taught us anything it’s that.

[@mtd963]

You are not comparing apple to apples. For example the US is not a third world country in financial terms, it's all not Rome bc we/they don't use gold as the standard anyway. The only way things collapse is when the rich have almost taken everything from the poor. Then revolution happens.

[@taco7043]

This is really bad information. Sven name some countries that spend less than they earn back in taxes. You can't find one because it's not how it works. If the debt is 30 trillion today and 60 trillion in however name years but the value of the dollar has fallen by 50%, that's essentially the same amount of debt 60 * .5 = 30.

[@kwoltekublai3337]

if you have situation where with 1:1 debt to gdp ratio debt is 30t, then 15 years down the line it is still 1:1 but debt is 60t w/ a 50% fall in the value of the dollar you are going to have giga inflation and in this context what kind of interest rates would the debt have to be offered at to make it attractive to investors - this is the cost of this system. The point Sven is making is that gdp growth has to outpace interest rate payments for this to be sustainable and that given inflation issues as a result of historic qe and petrodollar impact/status waning this is unlikely to continue working as well as it has. Ofc I could be wrong so please explain how I am if you think so.

[@masterjointu]

Germany

[@Value-Investing]

that is the point, your money is getting less and less valuable to cover for debt, that isn't invested! If your wage goes up 2% and inflation is 5%, nobody made money!

[@towTruck42]

but if the debt service as a % of the GDP grows it adds more and more frictional costs. Just because it's common doesn't mean it's sustainable. Tide goes out, see who is swimming naked.

[@davorsostaric]

2nd

[@Alberto-nz6er]

hello billionaires fellows

[@Value-Investing]

:-)))

[@VanPelt54u7fcyde57]

The most significant lesson I gained from the stock market in 2023 is that uncertainty prevails, emphasizing the importance of humility. Adhering to a long-term strategy with a competitive edge is key.

[@DeannaPeters-lz8we]

@@rebeccaartgallary Who is the professional who is advising you, if you could perhaps tell us? As a novice investing in stocks without the correct direction of a professional, I have lost a lot of money.

[@DeannaPeters-lz8we]

Thank you for this tip. It was easy to find your coach. Did my due diligence on her before scheduling a phone call with her. She seems proficient considering her résum

[@mbg9650]

Be prepared for a downturn or as Nassim Nicholas Taleb is calling it, be antifragile.

[@DudeEsq]

You’re too negative as usual. US economy is quite strong. Buy an index fund and chill.

[@anxheloripa449]

He is doing a fair evaluation. Its not the first time we have had a bubble lol. Obviously the economy wont fall apart but some companies cant and shouldnt survive

[@roopeitkonen72]

Why even invest into companies, when money dies? My portfolio has lot of metals and commodities futures.

[@OslerS]

Don't think you're ahead of anyone when all portfolios are based on value, when money is worth nothing economies collapse and when economies collapse nothing except food and land are worth anything nor gold, oil or whatever commodity you could think of

[@dmm6671]

Idk, my thesis is that that vompanies produce something, even tomorrow everything will be changed into a new coin, overnight, the companies tjat produce something will sell the products to make money, gold silver or whathever it is.. why to keep metals if the new payment will be in bitcoin for example?(not bitcoin bull, but just a piece of tought for mind)

[@dmm6671]

@@OslerS that s a good point , i didn t really think about it like that , but i think that would be worst case scenario but not unprecedented(argentina venezuela etc)

[@PonderDuke]

Money/currency is just an instrument to easily swap. Companies, if healthy, produce value for customers and thus create cashflow. Doesn't matter if that cashflow is in USD, silver, BTC or Yen. The currencies lose value, the value created by the company stays the same unless demand drops. Currency or commodities and BTC itself does not produce anything. Companies do with their product or service.

[@kwoltekublai3337]

@@OslerS Surely this is right no? Its economic demand that sustains commodity prices, if global economic demand tanks then the commodities it uses will tank also. Could maybe be a good way of indirectly investing in emerging economies if they constitute the majority of global gdp esp if they disproportionately use these commodities.

[@KARYTTAH_PopMetal_Rock_BAND]

----> 🤔 Maybe We're The #1 #Spiritist* #PopMetal #Rock #Band In This World -> But Don't Pay Much Attention To Our Neanderthal English, Ha Ha Ha ❤ *NOTE: -> Spiritist is who professes #Spiritism, the #Gospel continuation. It has began with the books by #AllanKardec and continued in the books by Francisco C. Xavier #ChicoXavier, the greatest and more important #medium/#prophet of #spirits of the last centuries

[@runabath]

J d weatherspoons big buy +Buy bitcoin 😜

[@Value-Investing]

hahaha

[@bbirkna]

inflation is not high. The reason for the increase in housing prices is that more houses cannot be built due to high interest rates. In other words, the Fed creates a housing bubble with interest rates that prevent house construction. Now high interest rates cause high inflation. No need for long words, just buy BTC

[@GeneralBays]

BTC is looking to be a major scapegoat coming up, keep an eye on how the FED, other governing bodies, & more importantly the hyper-rich move their money. When they pull, you pull, or you lose. Watched Nancy Pelosi & her husband along with other insiders congress, & watching Warren Buffett for current news as to what to avoid. When you know who or what is the "canary in the coal mine", you should always watch for when your "canary" "stops breathing", there might not be any "oxygen".... 😁

[@pornstarpat]

😂😂😂😂😂 No

[@bbirkna]

@@pornstarpathello from 35k, what I told u? Hahah