Nonsense! China's Economy Will NOT Collapse

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SOURCES:
I've linked my sources in the blog that goes along with this video. Most links are in the text. But, I added some extra literature and data sources to the end of the blog: www.moneymacro.rocks/blog
Timestamps:
0:00 - introduction
1:07 - China Is NOT USA 1
2:53 - Sponsor
3:57 - China Is NOT USA 2
6:46 - China Is NOT Sri Lanka
8:51 - What Is More
Attribution:
Bank Run Northern Rock - CC Dominic Alves via Wikimedia
One-Child-Policy Picture - CC Clpro2 via Wikimedia
Staff examining cars Qujinang Entry - CC Liuxingy via Wikimedia
Jack Ma when speaking at World Economic Forum - CC Foundations World Economic Forum via Wikimedia
Thumbnail green arrow: Starline via Freepik
China-lockdown picture: CC Pau Colominas via Wikimedia
Shenzen panorama: CC Charlie fong Via Wikimedia
Shanghai pic: CC King of Hearts via wikimedia
Lehman Brothers Picture: CC David Shankbone
Neon sign from: www.neonlights.be/discount/M&M15
Narrated and produced by Dr. Joeri Schasfoort (VU Amsterdam)
Animations made by @IntoEurope
Studio designed by Alex Moore Via www.dmsquaredagency.com

[@MoneyMacro]

Very happy to have one of the sources that I rely on, Morning Brew, be the sponsor of this video! Sign up for free here morningbrewdaily.com/mandm

[@kazeryu4834]

Sorry but I highly doubt this is accurate. Authoritarianism combined with poor geography and a host of other problems means China is a poor investment. Even if it doesn’t collapse in a month it’s on borrowed time regardless

[@UberOtaku001]

@@kazeryu4834 It seems to just be going into a recession. Authoritarian societies go into recessions sometimes and it doesn't mean complete collapse is coming.

[@kazeryu4834]

@@UberOtaku001 possibly, if the host of other problems don’t materialize. Which at the moment seems unlikely. I highly doubt China will collapse in a month, I also highly doubt it will survive the decade

[@ShizukaOG]

*First red flag.* *Who started a video says "No China's economy would not collapse.* *That’s without giving an a real explanation.* *How much did the Chinese government paid you.* *For making this video you and the Chinese regime are trying to divide the people and blaming America 🇺🇸 assume the america is the bad guy here and claiming that authorities countries like China are better way off.* *Secondly red flag *How do you know exactly that Chinese economy wouldn’t collapse, my guy hear yourself for once you don’t know most of these part you are talking about, do you really think that China would ever telling or shows us the truth no they wouldn’t, and yes Chinese economy would collapse rather you like it or not.* *Thirdly red flag.* *People assume that chinese people adore the government they really aren’t that happy because the government have control over the people if a you was a dictator would do exactly the same thing no free traveling no free speech no question about the government not thing, deleted these comments you don’t like is facts and truth my boi, truth does hurt doesn’t it.* *Fourthly red flag.* If something doesn’t goes what China excepted they blame others and they never admitting themself never I have heard that Chinese government have failed the people never think they would, China are buying leaders around Africa and forced these citizen rather you like it or not to China for work to them, you do not have right if authorities government selling their citizen to another country.* *The five red flag.* *Russia & China are destroying America itself every election they trying to divide the American 🇺🇸 people there is an old Japanese 🇯🇵 word saying { If a country are divide soon they would United but if a country is United much longer they would be separated } so people would seek leader and have different ideologies and that is what China really hopes for.*

[@primeroultimo9050]

How about this kzbin.info/www/bejne/hJLQo2Sjicebmac

[@epelly3]

No clickbait. No malicious headlines. Just informative and neutral information. This channel is a game changer.

[@meowjerkdon9547]

People just wanted to be assured that China is collapsing. And content creators just gave them what they want and monetize their views. It's purely business.

[@MisterSplendy]

Exactly.

[@mdtexeira]

For the people who don't like doing the math, he's put the probability of a full collapse at 2.7%, the probability of effective full recovery at 8.3%, and the slow decline of China's economy at 88.8%. Note: I seriously doubt he'd stand behind those exact numbers, but I thought some people might want the percentages rather than the abstracted die rolls.

[@MoneyMacro]

Well said. Indeed, this was an extremely rough estimate for illustrative purposes. So, you are spot on.

[@equim7363]

Wait, where are the rest 0.2% ???

[@twinblade02]

@@equim7363 Margin of error.

[@equim7363]

So low?

[@twinblade02]

@@equim7363 lol I'm just guessing

[@LiberatedStockTrader]

Exactly Joeri, there are too many click-bait title on youtube with people that pretend to know what they are talking about. You have credibility, as an academic and published scholar. Thanks, and keep going. - Barry

[@azurescenss]

Finally, a KZbinr who is honest - why tf would the country with the 4 largest banks collapse w/o taking everyone else down with them

[@essenceofsuchness]

Simple. They are in no way as interconnected to the global financial system as the largest Western banks. This is in part related to the strict capital controls (mentioned the video) and other government controls in China.

[@epsilonxvi5675]

@@essenceofsuchness because those country use china bank system

[@essenceofsuchness]

@@epsilonxvi5675??

[@johnc4224]

they have the the least transparent system with more cracks than a road, yet you believe the BS they parrot on about themselves being the greatest.

[@yaboidre5672]

Simple, the politicians keep stealing the money. :)

[@focusezz6947]

No sensationalism, just pure rationale. You're the hero that we need in times of confusion, thanks a bunch!

[@slslbbn4096]

Many influencers and media companies received instructions and payment by proxies of the CIA to denigrate targets like China and Russia recently. This type of misinformation campaigns were recently exposed by Meta/Facebook (Aug 2022) - go check it out. The key here is to have a critical mind - a rarity in most human societies, particularly here in the USA

[@MM-24]

This sums up too ... the facts look bad - but I know this guy cares about stability ... at some point the writing is on the way. You can call it sensationalism if you want - but they are backed up by real events, there is no auditing ... you dont hide from auditors if you have good news

[@upvotecomment2110]

Again... Easier to Macro BS than to Micro BS Of course, their situation won't be like USA or Sri Lanka. That argument can be used to ALL countries. Specifically not talking about the main concerns of the issue. (Real Estate, Debt boycotts, Lockdowns, and Environmental hazards) Sure, giving a date to a "collapse" is BS, but misdirecting the topic doesn't make your opinion less BS compared to them

[@matm.s]

We need the same approach on ukraine/Russia war. Too much propaganda

[@threathy]

🤣🤣🤣

[@leoleonard1580]

Finally a balanced perspective on China. I also really dislike the other channels that consistently only broadcast doomsday “predictions”

[@_aiborie]

Thank you for making videos like these! Came from The Plain Bagel since he recommended your channel.

[@abrvalg321]

It is so rare to find an honest economist like you these days.

[@Western_Decline]

Anti-China is the current mood, people WANT to be fed propaganda to help cope.

[@NEONNOONE]

Agree!

[@morganangel340]

@@NEONNOONE why be honest when you can make 100x more views with click-baits ?

[@davidcrosthwaite]

Economics Explained is great too!

[@abrvalg321]

@@davidcrosthwaite he isn't. And that's the difference, that's why M&M is so good. He can leave his personal opinion behind the doors and provide us only facts while hiding nothing. EE can't do that. I've stopped watching them when M&M have demonstrated how poorly their research was.

[@leakyabstraction]

KZbin is full of doomsday videos period. Same with the stock market, the US economy, the EU, etc. We live in an age of stupidity where it pays to make sensationalist, fearful, clickbait thumbnails without any sense of intellectual integrity.

[@kalleschonberg9296]

Yea, like sensational predictions that Russia will invade Ukraine.

[@vodrosszabolcs9869]

These news were successful in every age. People love bad news much more than good ones.

[@mr.financial]

I feel very similar. There are extreme opinions and viewpoints portrayed. Hysteria or Doomsday... Being balanced is not acceptable today 🤣

[@leakyabstraction]

​@@kalleschonberg9296 the high probability of the invasion was identified by reputable intelligence agencies back then, but I'm not familiar with China's imminent collapse being corroborated by similar bodies. That said, I do hope we're wrong, because the weaker China is (with that savage regime in control), the better off we are in terms of world security and stability.

[@lynnpabontheelitehero6579]

That describes so many channels. I like how this video mentions those specific channels that I'm subscribed to unfortunately. I'm going to be more skeptical because more and more channels are going toward this clickbaity doomsday bs intentionally misleading viewers to get likes and subs.

[@alexm4515]

Very well thought out thesis. You too are speculating on the outcomes. Still, very reasonable assertions. Good work.

[@mikebaker2436]

...this is the slowest imminent collapse I have ever seen...

[@looc456]

Finally someone stepping up and bringing this China is collapsing nonsense to a halt! 👌🏼 Thanks for the great work!

[@roibryant]

They won't collapse. But their growth will lessen as the years pass by. Idc tho, couldn't care about an authoritarian country.

[@kazeryu4834]

I don’t think it will happen in a month but I doubt China will survive the decade. The other KZbinrs just want “I called it” points and got carried away

[@roro4787]

@@kazeryu4834 it will survive and will move towards developed country status in next couple of decades, not as fast as in last couple of decades but surely not like Japan either, the reason is system of government, it will do whatever it takes to keep it's Chinese dream.

[@kazeryu4834]

@@roro4787 I’m not saying it will collapse in a month, but the Chinese government isn’t nearly as in control as you seem to think. However I have been looking for another perspective, do you know of any counters to these points: kzbin.info/www/bejne/b2Ksd5Jneaaoi9U I feel like there has to be another take but nobody really counters this guy

[@bigboss337]

@@roro4787 if china wants to move to developed country status like taiwan, singapore, south korea then it probably needs to do political reforms which is a conflict of intrerest to ccp. Currently china is moving towards autocracy and a new mao era. We know how the original mao era ended.

[@elephantman2112]

Essentially, a lot of people don't like China. So, there's a lot of demand for news and narratives that the country is about to collapse. Whether its true or not isn't really important to the people who seek out that kind of content.

[@thetrustysidekick3013]

That's what the West does. It sees China as a threat economically, and they want people to get mad at it for...reasons, I guess.

[@steviewonder417]

Lol Anglos mad. China canceling the great reset.

[@briano9397]

@@steviewonder417 touch grass

[@ericjiang7986]

People u dislike are the people in power lol. A man without enemy is a man without character. If u want everyone to like you then, you will always be a pushover.

[@sactorius]

True for a bit, but i see the main reason for most people to say china will be bankrupt is clickbait. China economy will get hit, but also will recover from it. We just don't know in which state it will recover too. I do concern more about the chinese people not trusting their banks and governments, which is showing these last months and will make the blow heavier for china.

[@bestgirlie09]

I feel sad that even though I am investing, I don't have the brain power to dig through how each company is doing, is this a good time to buy stocks or not, my reserve of $450K is laying waste to inflation and I don't know what to do at this point tbh, I need solid data on market trajectory

[@AmandaMichelle.]

well the top players and pros have exclusive information and data trajectory that isn't disclosed to the public, knowing the strategies to apply in this time is one thing and having the right info to successfully pull it off is just another.

[@hobbs252]

I agree, that's the more reason I prefer my day to day invt decisions being guided by a invt-coach, seeing that their entire skillset is built around going long and short at the same time both employing risk for its asymmetrical upside and laying off risk as a hedge against the inevitable downward turns, coupled with the exclusive information/analysis they have, it's near impossible to not out-perform, been using a invt-coach for over 2years+ and I've netted over 1.5million.

[@kozovski6628]

I guess that's explain why the demand for investment-advisers sky-rocketed by over 41.8% since the pandemic according to investopedia

[@Green-ed7wq]

I've been thinking of going that route, been holding on to a bunch of stocks that keeps tanking and I don't know if to keep holding or just dump them, think you inv-coach could guide me with portfolio-restructuring

[@hobbs252]

[@ckronenwetter]

Thank you! The focus on real information and analysis is refreshing

[@M0stlyHarmless9]

Definitely agree with this. The long-run issues are more interesting in my opinion. Some of them (e.g. population decline, rising dependency ratios) are faced by many developed countries as well.

[@feister2869]

I don’t think it’s the same, it’s projected they are losing 300 million people due to the population collapse, that’s 20-25% of its structure. Comparing it to a country like japan doesn’t compare.

[@Arigator2]

This video is nonsense. I don't think China is going to descend into chaos any time soon. But nobody knows. Secondly their problems are way worse than 2008. I lived in America in 2008. It wasn't that bad. It didn't affect me at all. There are actual catastrophic problems in China that dwarf 2008. Could the CCP keep kicking their problems down the road? Maybe. Will it lead to a collapse like the Soviet Union? Probably not. Did some bad things happen in 2008? Sure. But we were hardly eating rats. Some people got evicted out of houses they never should have bought in the first place. Some people lost their jobs. It happens. It wasn't Armageddon. Some very rich people lost a lot of money. Not sad about that. Sorry. 2008 was mostly a rich person problem. Wall Street lost money. Oh no.

[@evanytoscano1532]

Nonthing like in china, they're the fasting aging society in recorded history and unless other countries they’re still a developing economy

[@Four20ftw]

True, however western nations are far better at immigration and integration than China and its repressive regime. China will has an up hill battle attracting immigrants who will fill the productive gap.

[@winter6892]

copeiam

[@joaquimbarbosa896]

As someone who watched many of those videos I was allways asking myself, "How does this representa colapse" like they described a crises but talked about it like it was the end of China. Some even said "China will colapse in 1 month" 3 months ago

[@jarretedotio69]

There’s been a lot of Doom and Gloom content on KZbin for YEARS, and it’s still yet to come. It’s mostly reactionary clickbait.

[@ptrgr72]

They are saying this for 20 years already about China..

[@aoisora1445]

@@ptrgr72 it would be more realistic to say 100 years from now if they do not have a plan they will, but they have more than enough time for that... as for USA, they got problems that would take at least 100 years to reset, fix or stabilize due to similar reasons as others, greed or hunger for power and money over progress as a whole

[@AndrewManook]

Probably just american projection

[@BS_Media]

@@aoisora1445 Lol that's completely false.

[@Zones33]

I think the key difference between China and Japan when it comes to encountering “stagnation” is that Japan was completely demilitarized and bound by US political influence. There aren’t any US military bases and governmental restriction treaties with China, so I’d be curious as to see what they do to keep growing again.

[@abdulazizelijahfanan1632]

i disagree for one main reason china is a socialist state, its goal is not to grow infinitely, but to reach an economy with adequate living conditions for all, and to work within the limits of the environment that contradicts the childish idea of infinite growth, Hence china is trying to produce what it needs, if population decline is happening they will be the first country to purposefully degrow and only meet their needs. that's the main mistake liberal economists do.

[@DLore-ew3bt]

@@abdulazizelijahfanan1632 so why are they trying to expand into Taiwan if they aren't attempting to gain more and more?

[@acgorilla1538]

@@DLore-ew3bt Taiwan is already apart of china and they have had the same position on it since the 40s. They also have said they support peaceful unification sometime in the 2040s, anything sooner and by other means is due to American aggression on what pretty much every country including the US considers part of China.

[@abdulazizelijahfanan1632]

@@DLore-ew3bt taiwan has very different historical conditions, imperial japan ceased that island once, and ended up invading and facilitating british colonisation in china via the island, comiting war crimes and genocides, so china absolutly do not want a US military ally in that island, its an emotional subjects for the chinese.also taiwan is claiming all territories of mainland china which is simply not true as the Republic of china(current taiwanese gov)was overthrown by the people in the 40's and fled to taiwan .so if an island has been used to commit genocide in your country and invasion, claims you as theirs, and have military alliance with the world's most imperialist anti socialist state in the world, u will do anything in your power to stop that from happening

[@abdulazizelijahfanan1632]

@@DLore-ew3bt history as tought in schools is not nuanced, i advise you to learn about historical materialism, and then use it to critically analyse modern geopolitical isssues

[@douglashalvorson9487]

It's better reporting than main media. Thank you sir.

[@mr.normalguy69]

I also felt that something was off when I saw in a few finance channels that "China's economy is going to collapse" and I was like; WHAT!? CHINA'S ECONOMY IS GOING TO COLLAPSE!? IN LESS THAN 30 DAYS!?

[@Western_Decline]

it’s cope

[@minhducnguyen9276]

All the self proclaimed YT experts somehow precisely predict how long China will last day by day while academics level economists can't even predict in time scale of decades.

[@natn41r]

People (most infamously Gordon Chang) have been "predicting" China's collapse almost every year for the past few decades.

[@atb8660]

@@minhducnguyen9276 don’t be to hard on them they just that sweet sweet clicks

[@minhducnguyen9276]

@@atb8660 A channel call basic economic claimed that China has 27 days before collapse 3 weeks ago. Guess the name described exactly where they belong to, basic level.

[@pebblepod30]

This is probably one of the very few serious economics channels that is informed & truth seeking and without ideological blinkers. Which is why im a paid sub!! You also seem somewhat humble about what you don't know. Thank you I appreciate your work a lot, Joeri.

[@Western_Decline]

@@secretname4190 SLOWDOWN is temporary. COVID lockdown will end shortly after National People’s Congress. Demographic effects are largely offset by massive increase in skilled workers and agricultural automation. In the near future, China will be focused on sectors currently dominated by Germany and Japan.

[@carlosreid51]

@@secretname4190 i doubt a total collapse in china but they will be hurting somewhat

[@doricashu4984]

Lpppppw

[@dodiirawan5473]

@@secretname4190 Just curious why china economic will stagflation?

[@TheSteinbitt]

M&M isn’t without bias, none are. He is very left leaning with a strong preference for his home country of Netherlands. In one video he compare us vs Dutch meddelclass, and concludes Netherlands is cheaper when she lived in a small apartment in the city with no car, while the us citizen lived in a large home with a car. Still useful perspective though.

[@TheVertianKing]

I was waiting for your opinion and research i enjoy reading your sources

[@Tarik360]

Was waiting for a video like this.

[@booaks2980]

I was laughing at those thumbnails as well, such as "Collapsing in 29 days" I was like, ok we shall see 😂 like it is so obvious that they've unrealistic expectations or predictions. Also, people will literally call you China's paid puppet when literally you're a true professional speaking the truth. They rather listen to fake news just to satisfy themselves.

[@epicmatter3512]

A Japan style decline and stagnation isn’t that good of a scenario either, but whatever. Even Huawei’s founder is saying there is going to be pain in the next decade. Most people in China are blaming the U.S. because it could never be the fault of an overinflated property market. If China invaded Taiwan though, that would lead to something much worse.

[@jahinsadman1505]

@@epicmatter3512 usa will fall before china

[@ElZilchoYo]

It's even funnier when you live in China. Today was one of the days China was supposed to collapse but here i am still going to fucking work

[@jahinsadman1505]

@@ElZilchoYo long live 🇨🇳

[@laihinchun]

@@epicmatter3512 Lol Taiwan is part of China, so in case of any military responses it doesn't constitute an "invasion." The correct term is reunify.

[@maggnet4829]

What is missing here is a discussion of the fact that around 30% of the GDP is connected to the housing market, in contrast in the US where it was around 15-18% [edit: had to correct this number] I think and further that there was a ponzi scheme on building houses, where people gave money without receiving their houses yet and now all that money is gone.

[@drgxiii]

And the fact that that on average 75% of a provinces income comes leasing land, up to 95%.

[@MerculiarchSyn]

Yea the housing equity market is what’s going to cause a meltdown. You can’t discuss Chinese economic health without addressing that.

[@idrislamont1064]

Maybe although the home ownership rate is 90% in China compared to 65% in the US which also probably affects that.

[@IgraphyRupage]

Good point. Agree

[@hgft274]

lol, still waiting guys...

[@StephenJReid]

Nice to meet you today on your hike to the Hidden Valley!

[@MoneyMacro]

Likewise

[@dijonpsalm6938]

You have to admit. The amount of debt in china's housing market is extremely worrisome. That collapse can cause a meltdown easily in itself.

[@dijonpsalm6938]

@@moonlaid2689 what about it lmao

[@tcp-cd9tv]

You know nothing about Chinese economy.

[@nutbuddy1579]

It already collapsed and nothing happened other than landlords losing have their value

[@dijonpsalm6938]

@@moonlaid2689 you asked me about the U.S debt, which I do know about. But you asked "what about the u.s debt". It was a open ended ass question that you didnt elaborate on.

[@dijonpsalm6938]

@@nutbuddy1579 it hasn't collapsed yet. It's only going to get worse.

[@SW-fk3rb]

Wow, I voted for this content now here it is!! This channel has such great and thoughtful content. Thank you Money & Macro !

[@malyckrentz9346]

Thank you for this. I've viewed the underline to see what's going on in the Chinese economy. And while bad, it was never enough to collapse the second biggest economy in the world.

[@st.altair4936]

China's economy is already 25% larger than the US's based on the purchasing power parity, which is a more accurate measure than just the GDP.

[@joaodecarvalho7012]

Thanks for your point of view.

[@MultiSciGeek]

Amazing! This is the type of videos I like to see! Not just theory, but current events explained in detail. Cab you do a video on China's tech crackdown please?

[@baldurelitraustason662]

I've always saw those videos that China's economy was about to collapse in my recommendations but I was always sceptical but I didn't know why. So thank you for making this video

[@maartent9697]

Just watch both sides, sometimes each side makes excellent points that need further explanation

[@icecp4279]

@@maartent9697 The problem is KZbin only seems to be recommending one side. My front page is full of "China is collapsing!" videos.

[@PutXi_Whipped]

@@maartent9697 A lie isn’t another side, it’s just a lie.

[@georgethompson1460]

@Christopher Jacobs And then the CEO responsible gets arrested for lying and using Foreign chips to steal money from the government.

[@phylismaddox4880]

I actually like those videos as they are pretty silly but occasionally hit points I haven't seen before. And I totally agree with you that this video is helpful.

[@schumanhuman]

100% agree. A 3rd factor is most of China's debt is held in it's own currency, not foreign denominated. The only plausible 'collapse' would be political, but, my thesisfor years has been that they have been ramping up totalitarian measuresand anti foreign sentiment precisely to prepare for the deleveraging of the property bubble as it steps on so many toes. The mortgage strikes are big but not enough to rattle authorities, they will cautiously stimulate and restructure debts. Big question is how do they drive up productivity again without feeding back into a housing bubble? They need to follow through with the promise of a property tax, a land value tax would be even better.

[@eduwino151]

china economy wont collapse but they sure as hell aint gonna come close to replacing the dollar or dominating the west with their shady banking deals

[@IntrusiveThot420]

The other huge issue is the population pyramid. Are the CCP hardcore enough to just kill off the old population? They don't have much time to radically reform attitudes and laws on immigration.

[@PutXi_Whipped]

“ramping up totalitarian measures” LOL You just described the West.

[@wb3011]

I wonder if they may attempt to shift their production efforts from housing to oil and gas infrastructure to connect to new Russian outlets. I do not know if the Chinese investors would be interested in buying bonds for infrastructure projects instead of speculative houses to rent. Just a thought.

[@wuthichaiauomsin6237]

yeah but it need to change all leasehold property in to the freehold first.

[@Dr.RiccoMastermind]

Hey Joeri, again great video! My proposal how economists like you might improve to determine the quantification and likelihood of certain factors and events on issues like inflation. Could you somehow adapt attribution models to economics as they are used in climate modelling e.g. to determine the increased likelihood of more devastating hurricanes compared to a modelled world without human influence

[@christophermcanally1246]

I think you're right that China's economy won't collapse, but it remains to be seen if China can bail out the developers/banks without devaluing it's currency.

[@yaelz6043]

That's the beauty of China, it doesn't have to. It could just guarantee their debts and let them fold.

[@user-hi9vz1zw8d]

Devalueing CNY will create more trade surplus which helps with the debt situation, only problem is people will suffer a hyper inflation, which they already did

[@nicosfutureson4450]

It's already worth fk all 😂😂😂

[@kevinishott1]

The Chinese government are not looking to bailout any of these companies. But they are working to make sure the homes get built for the homebuyers. A much different scenario than what Obama chose.

[@isaackarr6576]

Rob the poor is always plan a

[@yoshyoka]

From a fellow economist, thank you: hearing a word of reason between the sensationalist chaos is like a breath of fresh air!

[@2kidsnosleep]

Sensationalist chaos indeed. All done as click bait for their videos. It is very annoying.

[@TBombahh]

@@2kidsnosleep Please make a video that has counter arguments to those videos. I fail to understand why your video should be trusted over their videos. The countdown of days was not just a randomly chosen number. I believe it's because something happens on that day.

[@2kidsnosleep]

Huh. What in the H E double hockey sticks are you talking about? My comment was that uTube video makers make sensationalist click bait titles that are BS to attract views and thus money. I have no video that needs to be trusted and you need to relax a smidgen. Maybe you are a Chinese bot🤔wouldn’t surprise me these days🙄

[@yoshyoka]

@@TBombahh Not that many days after all: we will sit back and see their sensationalist predictions fail in less than a month.

[@ysw8291]

Westerners are prone to mob hysteria.

[@petermanuel5043]

Thank you so much, its nice that you actually did some real research. ❤️👍

[@morningcoffeepottery5416]

Excellent content. Subscribed!

[@MoneyMacro]

Welcome

[@giorgionapoli85]

Thanks! It would be interesting to see a video on the consequences the stagnation scenario might have on the World economy. Cheers!

[@Lionheart38361]

I was waiting for you to address this one, thanks xD Groeten uit Groningen!

[@anuzis]

Love the positioning of scenarios with relative probabilities. Makes a more nuanced case while helping non-PhD in economics viewers understand how to think like an economist. Appreciate this great episode.

[@thomasendter6770]

Thanks for this point of view.

[@tinetannies4637]

I'm digging this channel thanks

[@longhaulblue]

Thank you. I don't understand economics but I've listened to the YT China detractors. I was always skeptical so it was informative to hear why they are wrong.

[@chilldude30]

Thanks for covering this. I've also seen those thumbnails all over KZbin and even had a friend declare the same presumably based on one of these clickbaity videos. I'll send him this.

[@brianjohnson7163]

A year later: China's economy is indeed collapsing

[@MoneyMacro]

No. It is still not in a great depression kind of scenario today. But, precisely as predicted in this video, it is once again in big trouble. Similar to how Japan faced several crises, recessions, and years of stagnation during it's decades of decline.

[@rootlessgirl2237]

Great video! Was desperate looking for another perspective on the China "collapse" story as I had also the feeling that this "crash" was overly propagated through mainly US channels and didn't take into consideration the different position china is in. Just looked at some of your other videos and Subscribed! ;)

[@unlearningeconomics9021]

Thank god for Joeri!

[@___.51]

The UE seal of approval? Noted.

[@patrickriarchy1976]

LOL I laughed so hard at your reaction Doctor. It’s the best response an economists can show to all these wild predictions. It’s weird like how many recessions the US had survived but for some reason people are convinced that China on the contrary will definitely collapse in a recession or a depression.

[@MacAnters]

It's because people believe what they want to believe

[@lekhakaananta5864]

It's a recognizable pattern in ultra-nationalist ideologies. In propaganda, the enemy is depicted as simultaneously both strong and weak, so that the people will both fear them yet still feel superior to them. So china is both a menacing threat and yet somehow will disappear in 25 days. I'm not claiming that the west has completely fallen to fascism, but there is definitely a certain strain of shitty nationalism where this is coming from. And of course the other side is probably even worse; Russia totally bought into that "the West is in decline" bullshit and thought Ukraine would be easy pickings. China probably would have similar delusions about the west if not for that wake-up call.

[@dr.j5642]

I'm East Asian and my family has factories in China. I can confirm that things are apocalyptic over there, the Chinese are dealing with a crisis the likes of which Americans have never experienced. When has billions of dollars vanished from American personal savings accounts? When has America built a housing bubble on unfinished and worthless properties? That is only the tip of the iceberg. Sure, America survived recessions and the Great Depression, but what did America look like during and immediately after the Great Depression? Things were a mess for years, and if it weren't for WW2 restarting the American economy, the bad times would have lasted longer.

[@quickcube2834]

The Problem is Not the Economy, its that the people are restricted, live a bad Life and have nothing More to lose, so when china‘s economy will collaps then because of an Revolution.

[@270eman]

@@lekhakaananta5864 China isn't going anywhere. Its the CCP that needs to go.

[@DC-bd6pe]

Thanks Dr. Joeri for the sensible analysis. Stumbled upon your channel through Plain Bagel and was immediately fascinated by your topic of coverage as well as your way of explaining concepts in simple manners. Compared to other KZbin channels who mainly just wanted to get viewership and appease their audience (which we all know, those that just wanted to live in their "Karen reality"), you are probably one of the few that speaks out what's going on through economist's POV. Keep up the good work Dr., with you being around, KZbin doesn't seem as fabricated as it may be now.

[@candycaneunicorn8024]

Wow first time on channel great video. Subscribed

[@JME]

There is a 1/36th probability of any double number on a 2 dice roll, so your analogy about a double 4 more likely than a double 6 is wrong, aside from that, great video!

[@Bulldogbuchanan]

Excellent point!

[@sarararah18]

I'm pretty sure I've caused a pair of dice to roll the number I wanted before. With the power of my mind.

[@Bulldogbuchanan]

@@sarararah18 teach me how to do that!

[@Bulldogbuchanan]

This is a very interesting and it is broken down in a way that’s easy to grasp! Thanks for doing this!

[@kittiesneverdie]

Boss said to comment. I comment.

[@westontong6036]

Like how this guy didn't sell his soul for clickbait and is telling it straight. Wish there were more people like this. I wish KZbin would reward you for your integrity.

[@tiii4017]

" one comment bot"

[@Peteristrate]

Except that he's wrong.

[@HueghMungus]

@@Peteristrate Yeah you wish. Go watch those sensational clickbaity videos that tell that one huge country will collapse in less than 1 month. Even North Korea is still hanging on dude. Maybe go outside and see the reality.

[@hakonaae9636]

This video has twice as many views as he has subscribers

[@whereiscolin100]

china #1

[@jerkysans]

Not a finance person, but it's refreshing to watch a different viewpoint on this. Chinese economy going bust will affect everyone negatively since the global economy is so wrapped up around it.

[@conradhart3881]

The problem with most of these videos analysing the fiscal policies of the CCP fail to look at the social impact. The hyperinflation that comes from continuous money printing will affect everyone like you say. The middle class will have their savings wiped out (as we are seeing in the property bubble), but the poor will just starve. Add into this mix, the Zero-Covid policy and energy problems that means manufacturing levels can not be maintained. Also the food production in the country has taken a hit from extreme climate patterns - with droughts and floods affecting many crop-producing regions. I think a holistic full recovery will be years in the making.

[@culdeestudios1725]

U forgot to mention the brain drain of high net worth individuals.

[@conradhart3881]

@@culdeestudios1725 Indeed. There are a myriad of factors and levels to a societal disintegration.

[@eonthinker100yrago8]

@@conradhart3881 all speculations you made with zero proof mr.

[@migVs]

Appreciate it brother

[@chinathesideyoudontsee8157]

As someone living here , having a Chinese wife that works for the local Government this is my observation. Real estate in most tier 1/2 cities has been in a bubble waiting to pop and has came down a little this year. This would go hand in hand with CCP's rhetoric of housing should be for living and not speculation and hopefully they will introduce the new property tax in trail mode in certain provinces to bring it down a little more. But in saying that for my city when ever I go past any construction sites they are all full steam ahead and there are literally hundreds of them. Bank runs as far as I know were mainly in the Henan province due to the Rural bank saga ( bank was allegedly infiltrated by organized crime ) assets frozen as a audit and investigation happen, as it is not a State own bank the peoples money was not insured , complicated and will take too long to explain. Mortgage dispute is mainly for some low tier cities , with some issues in some larger cities, mainly due to covid supply issues as well as some smaller developers maybe over leveraged .The central Gov has asked some banks to give a 6 month grace period on payments to those worst effected as well as injecting cash to get the projects on track ( this effects maybe 1% of all mortgages in China ) Most cities have not suffered too many major covid lock downs since 2020, only notable exceptions are Shanghai early this year and some parts of Beijing the worst effected with a few sporadic cases here and there( Fuzhou where I live no lock down since June 30 2020 ) Due to China's 24/7 online shopping for anything and everything with an excellent delivery/postal service the effects of lock downs could be some what offset , I know this personally as my wife gets something delivered daily 🥴 . Grocery / food shopping is commonly done via apps and home delivered ( I seldom go to the supermarket ) My wife is Finance manager for the transport sector and she said most projects for our area are running on time ( roads , bridges ect ) Food cost have not really change too much and the stock market seems ok ( well my investments anyway are all well up , but maybe I am just good at it 😄) As I live directly across from Taiwan 160 km to be precise the mood of the people is normal and there is nothing abnormal to prior the cross straight tensions ,if anything it seems quieter than before the Pelosi visit as for a while there it would be common to hear jets once or twice a week ) Anyway not saying there aren't any issues just speaking from my own personal experience, but I am far from being an economic expert ! One other notable thing is we haven't had Typhoons yet , which is uncommon and it has been stinking hot . Ok take care .

[@nmos001]

There is a lot of wishful thinking and projection here in the west, esp living here in the US, hence all those videos about China's economy collapsing.

[@BSPBuilder]

A lot of people in the west hate China so much that they resort to wishful thinking. This is not healthy.

[@leenglishman1605]

Thanks for the cogent update - much appreciated

[@SmallSpoonBrigade]

Being an authoritarian regime that likes to regulate morality, they have the option of outright seizing the failing developers and continuing operations from there. That's not an option in the US, but in the PRC, seizing the operations to complete them for those that were paying would have a different interpretation than here.

[@izangomso]

@@SmallSpoonBrigade that's literally what's happening. valuable projects just get nationalized for pennies after the ccp intentionally created an artificial liquidity crisis by changing credit access laws for RE developers.

[@qbb01]

How does providing an endless amount of money to the Chinese bank not cause extreme inflation though? Won't their currency suffer because of this?

[@Dramaican88]

Not in FIAT money printing world. In real terms and what the working middle class will feel, yes there will be inflation. But there is no alternative for the citizens. Capital controls and the general control means that citizens can't do anything to avoid money printing to bail out the banks. (No human in the world can currently do anything to stop the money printing). They are not able to convert their wealth into hard money that does not inflate easily like bitcoin, gold or real estate abroad. So because a bank run is not actually possible, the printing of money will be framed as something absolutely necessary and without anyone calling out the insanity (because everyone is printing money) the strong manufacturing sector (as mentioned in this video) will eat up the inflation internally gradually with tweaks. Meaning products from China will become slightly more expensive (the world will easily accept this, as all the money printing governments will say it is because of the China lockdowns and global issues in general) and the exploding growth will be toned down, so it will just take a bit longer for the Chinese lower class to become middle class due to growth compared to the last decade (during which it was very fast). That is why all the stability and the policy changes are happening in China. China is educating engineers to actually make stuff and innovate to keep the manufacturing sector strong and even more competitive. They are not educating influencers and "the next killer app" and "platform" developers because that is volatile economic growth and not stable as actual innovation in manufacturing and engineering.

[@chrisjohn1284]

@@Dramaican88 Nah I don't think so, China has plenty of USD reserves which it can use to prop up its currency if need be.

[@tazzioboca]

@@Dramaican88 well, except this is China, whose renminbi is massively undervalued by its own government to make its exports more competitive and not allowed to be traded abroad. If anything, this recession will make this currency closer to market equilibrium .

[@smmshoe]

this channel is total BS don't expect real answers

[@qbb01]

@@smmshoe Yeah, for someone who is a Dr. in his field, he sure did miss a lot

[@hambster9759]

I agree, but some of these "clickbait" does give good insight, some even going against their clickbait. Tbh good u cover this cus people tend not to check sources if they arent presented

[@maxmagnus777]

Just found you because of plug from EE. Subbed

[@sayhitothensa6934]

i would have appreciated a definition of the difference between "China is in big trouble" and "not collapse" is. I do agree with you, but then it ends up in a position of "china can't collapse" which also doesnt fit.

[@aldyhabibie9717]

Probably about the same as a very sick man does not always dies because of his sickness. China's economy is crippled or in a more technical term; In a sharp decline but it will not completely collapse the whole economy or the country itself like USSR because it is very likely that they will regain control over their declining economy. If they did collapse however, the whole world will also have to suffer because of it. It is true that china can collapse just like every other country. In fact China has collapsed so many time in the past mostly because of internal conflict but there was also opium and the war with Japan combined with internal conflict with the warlords and the communist party of Mao Zedong. The current China however, will probably not going to collapse so easily.

[@chenchen6841]

1. China has the largest savings in the world, Chinese people like to save money. 2. The Chinese government can control all bank capital, loans and stop loans in any crisis will not be transmitted to other industries. 3. China has almost no foreign debt denominated in US dollars. All domestic loans are denominated in RMB. The Chinese government has $3 trillion in assets. 4. The Chinese people have special trust in the government 5. China is still the fastest growing country in the world. 6. Provides the country's development to drain domestic debt kzbin.info/www/bejne/qHXKaamraLdjhc0

[@setiawanskom8872]

they had been saying the same thing "china economy is collapsing" since 20 years ago

[@FrostbitexP]

You mean 20 years ago when Chinas economy was booming compared to now where its economy is no longer booming? Im sure many people were saying "The US economy will collapse" during the booming years post WW2 and it never did pan out to their expectations, but guess what? They eventually were right in 2009. An economy has to collapse at some point. And this very well may be Chinas time.

[@setiawanskom8872]

@@FrostbitexP 20 years ago. a westerner published a book called "the collapse of china's economy".....since then.....i frequently heard people, media or politician said "china's economy is collapsing"

[@randomanon7040]

I love your dice analogy! Most people don't understand statistics and probability, but attaching the likelihood of various outcomes to specific dice rolls really articulates what you are predicting very well! I lived in China and Japan for several years, I think your Japanese stagnation thesis is the most likely scenario.

[@emberman535]

Really appreciate this. The clickbait on this was all over my recommended, so it's nice seeing more sober analysis.

[@MikeMessiah]

I felt this whole CHINA IS COLLAPSING trend on KZbin was fishy when I noticed none of the mainstream media talking about it. Seeing how thirsty the mainstream media is about bashing China, and how they refuse to talk about this CHINA ECONOMIC COLLAPSE made me question the reality of this situation. Yes, China has a lot of problems now, the bank and housing crisis, the drought crisis etc etc but none of the mainstream outlets ever mentioned Depression or Economic Collapse in the past few weeks.

[@arminius6506]

I was looking at SS of NYT and WSJ larping in 2010-11 that China was going to collapse, now KZbinrs are larping in 2022. This is just pure sinophobia on steroids

[@TasX]

Or… or… if you want to go super conspiracy theory mode. These news outlets don’t want this to cause people to take out their money in response to a Chinese recession, triggering a recession in their own economy.

[@palmpalm5131]

I wouldn’t trust mainstream media…although I do agree all those videos about China collapsing are all fake.

[@cohendarwin5365]

KZbin is propaganda machine

[@murraymadness4674]

The US mainstream press does not want to people to know china is crashing! Because it effects how they spend money, they want americans to keep spending money.

[@simongrube3264]

I love you. Thank you for cutting through the bs and giving a realistic, non emotion based look at this situation

[@petersmythe6462]

I think China will have a period of relatively slowed growth but unlike Japan, the Chinese economy isn't close to maxed out in development. There is still plenty of China that has yet to reach first world conditions or even close. Given China's control over its own growth, I think it's likely that the rest of the country can still develop.

[@lolasdm6959]

One fundamental difference between China and Japan is geography. The entirity of Japan is coastal, most of China is inland. If the Chinese coastline declared indepdence it will be a developed nation. I mean you see this in the US, yes, California and Washington are highly developed states, but Alabama is never going to be nearly as developed. Same thing in China, the coast has already been developed the inland provinces are still going to be poor and underdeveloped. The Chinese government currently takes money from the coast and redistrubute it to the inland provinces. If you look at a government revenue map, the only provinces that actually make contributions to the government budget are on the coast the rest of the regions are always in the red. If China fractures, which it has in the past, many of the inland provinces will iterally become Afgan levels of poor, which happened in the warlord era.

[@anantmalik]

China is a first world country ... 😊

[@snooky3]

So what if sanctions hit China. Yeah they make a lot, but are also europes main importer. If that took a ban, what they make then..

[@jaront4922]

So many factors are left out. Expecting the government to bail out all the banks puts the country in a lot of debt which has further impacts on the economy of China.

[@sakesaurus1706]

is that what he means by a period of stagnation?

[@flowwwtube3357]

They won't bail out. China is not the US. The banks are not in charge. CCP is in charge. They will decide. (The have already decided).

[@acgorilla1538]

Banks will not be "bailed out" with debt, they are state banks and they will simply provide new currency. Probably will be far less then anything the US had to do in order to prevent collapse in 2008 in terms of printing as well.

[@sakesaurus1706]

@@acgorilla1538 damn, imagine if US saw this and decided to copy that shit

[@lolasdm6959]

@@sakesaurus1706 It's iterally the only solution, if you did not detect and halt the problems beforehand.

[@maliivan1993]

Thank you for the great video. Aside from having informative videos that explain all this stuff in an accessible manner, you've also helped me avoid sensational "DISASTER INCOMING EVERYBODY PANIC NOW" videos about economics on youtube. Once again, thanks for the great videos, and please keep them coming.

[@MKahn84]

Good analysis. Thank you.

[@user-jg1vz1zo8o]

then, now?😂😂😂😂

[@robalexnat]

I couldn't find the post on your blog, but my contention is that the Brookings Institute statistic I think you used in your video for global share of manufacturing is from 2018, which, I would argue may have significantly changed over the past 4 years.

[@MoneyMacro]

Yeah, good point!! This was the latest data I could find. I wonder if it hasn't grown bigger though.

[@robalexnat]

@@MoneyMacro if you specify whether you want manufacturing value added I can probably compile something this week and send it over. EDIT: just from a quick check in the World Bank dataset it appears China counts for 29.76% of the world's Value Added Manufacturing up from 20% whereas the US has declined from 18% to 14.29% from 2018. However note: the US data is from 2020, I could use the Fed's Real Valua Added by Industry Manufacturing, but I'd need to vet it a bit. From a back of the envelope calculation tho it is in the +/- 1% of 14% ballpark.

[@noeldenever]

Oh hell yes finally, a level-headed analysis. I tried watching just one of those click-baity contents, had quite the facial gymnastics in response to the sensationalism, and wished you would cover the topic. Such a nice surprise to see a notification of this video. Thank you very much!

[@evertvriezinga3193]

"facial gymnastics" haha

[@josephk87171]

I do agree with your analysis that the combination of demographic issues, and mismanagement around real estate + heavy handed policies is setting up for a Japan style decline. The big question will to answer is whether Xi and the CPC can sustain the inevitable social pressures which will build. Moving from an expansionary outlook to a stagnant one is not easy to manage politically

[@madamesaundere]

Did we actually casually forget how millions of people usually die in China when this stuff happens? Cos millions will most likely die again. Perhaps even hundreds of millions.

[@drekkan19]

The other problem with the Japan comparison is the relative decline. China is funded by growth. It doesn’t have the wealth to sustain a large unproductive population wallowing in stagnation.

[@Redmanticore]

to me, it's just whether _xi_ personally can stand the social pressure, or will he be just changed to the next guy. the system itself won't go anywhere. xi´s 100% covid prevention is starting to get old, even to the elites. it is the number 1 thing hurting the economy. if changed, the new dude is more pro-capitalist, gets rid of covid-restrictions, favors more free trade inside and outside, economy starts to rise again.

[@madamesaundere]

@@Redmanticore Not sure if you're aware of history, but China is the kind of place where systems most definitely break. If hundreds of millions die there, which they may yet, this will happen. Theres no magical "and the economy simply rises like a feather under a new guy" moment. They're done.

[@abhijeetraut6427]

Adding to it the amount of debt it has provided to other nations, along with the West, many nations now have agendas for fall of CCP. The crisis, which is following the public frustration after the 0 covid policy makes China suitable for a social disturbance given the rising dissent against Xi and the West maybe desperate to destabilize the China and now would be their time.

[@hamidrezaraei8404]

hey one of the best assessments I’ve seen

[@drakemguard1407]

Better understand both side of the coin to understand the situation , good video 😊

[@ricardokowalski1579]

Agree, clickbait sensationalism is just that. Also: the problem is that stability and capital controls depend on POLITICAL continuity. And stagnation would void the contract between the chinese population and their political caste.

[@daviemetalhead22]

David Mitchell =-D I love common sense intelligent content like yours to counter all the click bait trash out there, keep up the good work

[@felicisimo-wy3hs]

Excellent and sensible economic analysis.

[@Belzughast]

Great summary! I agree on your scenario, it's the most probable one. Falling yuan will offset some losses I had to take in while converting euro to american dollars. Chinese companies really like their american dollars.

[@pch7490]

I think I first heard 'China is collapsing' about 30 years ago when China economy was a lot weaker than it is now.

[@AndrewManook]

They been at it for 20 years now.

[@BS_Media]

Please tell me when they had a housing bubble and population decline as serious as this. No one can predict what will happen, but with literally a HUGE amount of investors leaving China, it will easily put them into a recession even outside of their real estate market.

[@crematedable]

@@BS_Media recession is not collapse. Two very different things. No one’s denying they won’t go into recession.

[@BS_Media]

@@crematedable The clickbait is there for sure, but recessions can lead to a depression if this future recession lingers longer than expected. Also by decreasing interest rates they are only hurting themselves further similar to what the US did before. Doing this can and will drive a recession further especially if their debtors can’t pay their loans. Their Ponzi scheme style only last as long as they have investors. Once that’s gone, there can be a collapse like some click bait titles suggest.

[@Madara_Uchiha69420]

@@BS_Media it won't linger longer than expected , we are talking about China here okay , it's an insanely strong economy if anything

[@solobloke8116]

My KZbin has been under absolute assault of these videos in the past month. Started checking their other videos - seems like US and EU economies are just fine. Looks like a collective hit piece now, but what do I know

[@tilenjeraj2684]

You made a valid point. I don’t believe in collapse of Chinese banks. As you mentioned “capital control” is one of the most powerful tools they have. How ever by rescuing banks it will make middle class poorer. This might create serious social instabilities.

[@PilgrimsPass]

it would in the west. But the Chinese middle class only reallly existed for a single generation and they're highly brain washed with nationalism. they'll blame the west for their misfortunes and possibly isolate themselves further or double down in trying to create an alternative system.

[@TheSpokaneAurora]

Great analysis. Well explained.

[@82boulou]

The Only channel I trust for economic opinions . No agenda no BS ... pure economics .

[@thespectrum630]

Economics is the actual BS, it's simplification of trillions of independent variables into a guess using pattern recognition that we think will happen. And 90% of times we fuck up

[@82boulou]

@@thespectrum630 This channel does exactly that with Integrity . Chill man 🤣

[@MoneyMacro]

Just a quick clarification comment about the dice example. I meant: Scenario collapse = throw 6,6 Scenario growth= throw 5,5 OR 4,4 OR 3,3 Scenario recession, intervention, stagnation= rest of the combinations.

[@acl7295]

lol I mean true the economic outlook doesn’t looks good, but we pretty much same everywhere

[@redpoemsformywife9945]

Great video. But you should mention the heat wave.

[@gp-oi5nt]

You and Patrick Boyle are THE best youtubers on economics and finance respectively. Unbiased, and you both do not cave into sensationalist possibilities

[@Rin-qj7zt]

You are right it is not fair to let the banks get away with blowing up the financial system. That's why they should have been legally removed from control of that system, and replaced. Don't just let them get away with market manipulation.

[@bobconley2355]

Replaced with what?

[@nathanwadekillebrew386]

I think the more interesting thought exercise, which I hope you explore, is how the de-lev on many fronts of the Chinese economy impacts some of the developing nation loan program. Also, how does the the distress experienced in some of these nations impact China’s policies moving forward. It is like a perpetual motion feedback loop that I think you are uniquely equipped to disentangle.

[@JamesLewis2]

As a minor point, your photo illustrating the 2008 US financial crisis was of a run on a bank in the UK in 2007; this still was connected to the global economic downturn, but Northern Rock was not in the US.

[@DonStinko]

The amount of misinformation regarding China that is spread these days is insane. Thank you for making this video to inform people on what is really happening.

[@lemmyboy4107]

Idk man if you scrap the obv clickbait from other channels he said the same things. The clickbait is normal in private media if anyone wants to change this you have to pay. And mandatory pay like tax so that the media does not have to be afraid of losing customers. So imo thats not misibformation, its just the logical outcome when you privatise media.

[@megamicromanager2449]

what misinformation? its a difference in conclusion. They say the same thing but comes to different conclusions

[@megamicromanager2449]

@Caw Yarson you mean the paid promoters? i know the exact vids you are talking about mate. you must have loved listening to the uyghurs singing and dancing at the directions of the chinese officials to give content to some foreign sellouts in china. bra-fucking-vo. lets get to actual economics without talking about paid advertising

[@drphilgee6430]

hope you received the money from the CCP

[@lucasgrey9794]

@@megamicromanager2449 Oh my gosh! You actually believe the Uyghur genocide lie?

[@i.03983]

I keep up to date with macro economics since I'm starting an e-commerce business but hearing all this got me worried for awhile lol people don't realize how bad a Chinese collapse would hurt the supply chain

[@deadlock-4337]

Chinese bot

[@Zayonisation]

lol ecommerce is mostly parasites that drop ship cheaply produced chinese goods under horrible labor conditions to better markets. The middle class trash

[@yuchow5652]

In a sense, the collapse is already beginning. Under their very strict Covid rule any supply chain can be shut down without any warning. In the long term people will tend to find a way to avoid this country. lower cost is good, but stability is more important.

[@anders3871]

@@deadlock-4337 says the one with a Ukraine flag in their username

[@fimelsin5308]

@@deadlock-4337 Ukrine genocide apologist, yea thats right I know what you support the shelling of innocents that did not follow the nasiz take over of ukrine for 8 years. The real government of ukrin fell 8 years ago fool how about you read some real history and not lies.

[@backseatslidepuzzle]

Interesting take, and quite likely given competent leadership. The real question is whether or not political infighting will subside enough for effective measures to be rolled out instead of focussing energy on securing positions of power.

[@jaykay74418]

Great video, I think the biggest issue China is facing that is that no one want to get properties developed for a long while and this will put the construction sector massively under pressure.

[@spider6660]

That's why their construction industries are expanding outside China. Most of the Asian, African and latin American countries and Chinese constructions are taking its grip just because of its efficiency and speed. But some argue that they're debt traps.

[@nvelsen1975]

China's a big place. Going to be lots of stuff to maintain, change and improve rather than build anew. Also most low-skill construction crews are rural migrant labourers who can simply be sent home to cut down on construction companies' costs. Given the state of Chinese agriculture that may not even be a bad thing. (although it'll be a shitty couple years for the migrant workers)

[@porka2992]

THANK YOU

[@TheHowardian]

Finallyyy!! I’ve been waiting for someone to step up and put an end to this China clickbait wave that the big finance youtubers are feeding off. Thank you 🙏

[@ysw8291]

It is a disgusting pandemic that has been spreading like wild fire amongst the white skinned.

[@adamlw8303]

First time i have downloaded the sponsor app :) i did subscribe to morning brew. I like how ye pitch very simple. And also i like this content. Bec those people who posted hype type of china collapse probably just want click money.