November OSCAR BEST PICTURE Predictions

[@patriciascolafeleppa5542]

Sing Sing is the BEST MOVIE of the year and deserves nominations in most categories. The movie was shot on 16 mm film, in 19 days, with a very small crew. The DP, Pat Scola should be nominated for an Oscar for cinematography because the visual look, the lighting, the film choice, all created the naturalistic atmosphere to tell the story. Accompanied with Bryce Dessner's score that sells the beautiful scenes and intimate facial expressions. And kudos to the director, Greg Kwedar, who allowed dialogue to be ad-libbed at times, which created the emotional essence throughout the film that tugs at your heart. The cast deserves best ensemble because 90% of the cast are the formerly incarcerated men that participated in the RTA theater program while in Sing Sing and that authenticity shines. And what can you say about Coleman Domingo.... he deserves the Oscar this year, his performance is perfectly understated, and he allows the other men to shine because this is their story. Well Done!! Also, Clarence Maclin and Paul Raci both deserve best supporting nominations. Their performances tie the strings that pull the film to its brilliance. Best movie overall in a very long time and well worth the emotional journey.

[@fantasyfilmball]

Oh I totally agree. I love Sing Sing and was so happy for its Gotham wins last night. Let's hope this sparks its momentum throughout the rest of awards season - D

[@madelineashton5079]

Darlings, Helen and I believe The Substance will get BP nomination

[@monkeyangelo717]

I love the content you guys are creating I only wish I found it sooner! This is a fun season because the movies that are in are REALLY in and excellent quality but the lack of knowing the bottom four and what will scrape in is fun. Also appreciate you keeping politics out of your videos when you can. Most of the time you’re preaching to the choir and I think that people need to look at the popular vote and consider if we’re just making it worse by constantly bringing them into things. Oh well, I’m excited for this Oscar season!

[@janekent190]

You are absolutely wrong about The Substance. The Substance is not merely a horror film nor is it targeting a younger "TikTok crowd" as you assume. Instead, its narrative speaks deeply to the Hollywood landscape of ageism, particularly in the lives of aging film stars who often face early retirement or diminished roles as they approach their late 30s. This theme resonates with many actresses who have personally felt the limitations imposed by age in the industry, making the story especially relatable. I guess you are too young to see it right now. Several Oscar voters, particularly older ones, have reportedly praised the film as "clever," recognizing its depth beyond the horror genre. This has been further validated by its nominations for Best Film and Best Screenplay at the European Film Awards. The Substance gets support from audiences, critics, and the industry alike, challenging the perception of it as simply a horror film

[@mr29]

Oh I hope you are right because I feel the film is a masterpiece - and I don't use that term lightly. It deserves nominations for Picture, Director, Actress, and Supporting Actress.

[@oskari7121]

Idk if the british crowd will support Blitz that much, the word on the street was that it hasn't been received THAT well over there. I also do not understand the May December x A Real Pain comparison. Totally different films.

[@fantasyfilmball]

The comparison isn't based on content as much as it is on how it fits into the awards season. -Both films premiered early in the year to very good buzz, but neither won awards at their festivals. -Both films' buzz dipped after their premieres, and were resurrected at NYFF -Neither film has the potential for an immense nomination package. They are both screenplay/acting contenders. May December had more acting potential. -Both films are comedies, but take a colder, more academic approach to the material. Neither are crowdpleasers. (Some people have called A Real Pain that but I disagree) -Both films were purchased by a major distributor (Netflix/Searchlight), and around their releases, the online sphere has speculated that they are potentially their studio's main horse in the race over top of the more typical, baity biopics that the studio also has (Maestro/A Complete Unknown), but which film twitter wants to fail. -Both films will do really well with regional critics, but likely struggle when we get to industry awards.

[@oskari7121]

@fantasyfilmball didn't A Real Pain win Screenplay at Sundance?

[@fantasyfilmball]

@@oskari7121 Oop, I forgor 💀 There goes that point of comparison The rest still stands!

[@joelanthonylim6792]

Damn it's high praise that Matt said Ariana is his favorite Supporting performance of the year

[@mobytoby8141]

Oscar race isn't anything like last year. It is wide open. There are lots of good movies. Sing Sing will be snubbed and Conclave will underperform.

[@papara106]

Blitz is a meh that nobody gives a flying f... There is nothing great about it. All the supporting small characters speak with a very bad fake London accent that drilled my ears. The plot turn into Oliver Twist which doesn't work. The Little boy couldn't get to Stepney from Central London in two days. He, for some reason, goes to London Bridge, then He miraculously ends up in Stepney after the flood in London Bridge station. Ronan is far better in The Outrun than Blitz.

[@lizwithoutbuildings]

Was about to make a joke about Robert De Niro when you were talking about the Apprentice and then you did it for me 😅

[@wavy5839]

I could honestly see emilia taking picture and I'm not mad about it

[@troyarsenian94]

BRB trying to find a way to frame my Wicked W and hang it on my wall.

[@fantasyfilmball]

You earned it Troy! Made theater kids everywhere proud.

[@josephinedemarco8749]

I’m wondering about the possibility of Anora winning best picture without Mikey Madison winning lead actress similar to how Shape Of Water won without Sally Hawkins taking actress. I have also been wondering all year if a real pain could pull a CODA

[@papara106]

CODA was a pandemic wonder, it wont happen again. Anora isn't winning anything, its best shot is the best original screenplay

[@fantasyfilmball]

Personally I think Anora can win without Madison... my issue is who wins actress then? - D

[@jackfreund2957]

Actresses like Sharon Stone and Demi Moore lost their stardom before you guys were born. Only a handful of them had a long and successful career. Even actors face aging and not getting scripts-go and read why Michael Caine accepted a role in On Deadly Ground. Even Ronan got a mother role in Blitz. The Substance understands this and creates a strong narrative with body horror and satire. Actors in Hollywood would understand why the film was so gross and they acknowledge that this is the way Coralie Fargeat decided to tell her story by taking a risk. It certainly paid off.

[@papara106]

True, Ronan got a mum role at the age 30. Possibly 29 while filming. You can never see male stars performing dad role at 30.

[@dahomey2001]

I liked emilia perez and the cast, i didn't know there was criticism for the film but well you can't please everybody

[@myytchanneldinakoha8498]

The criticism is from radical critics and SJWs. Zero influence on the Academy.

[@sasha76944]

trans woman here i liked emilia perez i can see the criticism about it, however i enjoyed it and unlike green book if it become this big awards player (even with the nominations alone) this will help break barriers in the industry for future films where studios hire trans actors, writers, directors, push them for awards consideration, and allow trans stories to be seen worldwide

[@alejandromangieri1495]

I caught the “whether you like it or not” reference lol

[@farithfalcon4538]

There is no world where Karla sofia gazcon wins best actress not with most men voting she'd be lucky if she gets nominated even if the movie is strong

[@FrakkinToasterLuvva]

Where on Twitter are those hate boners for The Apprentice? I've seen mostly positive reactions, with tons of praise for the performances.

[@Cafe-yz4fm]

At this stage, The Substance's chance to get in as good as any other film. No need to rubbish it.

[@felipebernardo2794]

I'm still here is gonna break your prediction, 25? Seriously, thats tough, Nickel boys is a average movie, sing sing as well

[@Cafe-yz4fm]

keep dreaming

[@piotrkovak2014]

Matt, your number 9 is A Complete Unknown and your number 14 is The Apprentice. Honestly mate, I can't take your film comments and predictions seriously anymore. Your top 20 and your reasonings contradict each other.

[@oskari7121]

I think that's a bit harsh. Can you give an example where his opinions contradict each other?

[@dodobird5135]

Shaky logic, shaky list.

[@tonic.1327]

You dismiss The Substance, We dismiss you.

[@fantasyfilmball]

lol i mean for the record we both love The Substance (I have it in my top 5 of the year), but genre bias is a real thing at the Oscars and I think people are setting themselves up for disappointment. I'd rather be pleasantly surprised if The Substance does well than heartbroken if it fails. There's a pattern... Toni Collette in Hereditary Lupita Nyong'o in Us Willem Dafoe in The Lighthouse Demi Moore in The Substance

[@filmlibrarian]

It is worth considering the notable occasions when horror films were nominated for and won Oscars. In addition to wins for Kathy Bates (Misery) and The Silence of the Lambs, The Exorcist received 10 Oscar nominations, winning for sound design and screenplay.

[@fantasyfilmball]

@@filmlibrarian Misery was 1990, Silence of the Lambs was 1991, The Exorcist was 1973. You could throw in Ruth Gordon's win for Rosemary's Baby in 1968. But those are all far in the past, and the only horror film to be nominated above the line since 2000 are Get Out and to a certain extent, Black Swan. Difference between those and The Substance is that both Get Out and Black Swan were genuine box office sensations and cultural crossover hits. Get Out made $255 Million worldwide, and Black Swan did $329 Million. The Substance is sitting pretty at $49 Million worldwide, which is a great number for an arthouse horror movie from a distributor like MUBI, but does not give it the "cultural phenomenon" label that I believe horror movies need to have in order to break the Academy's bias against the genre. - M

[@filmlibrarian]

@@fantasyfilmball my sentiments match yours with regard to The Substance. It would be a fantastic surprise if it gets nominated, but I’d understand if it misses at the Oscars.

[@myytchanneldinakoha8498]

Emilia Perez was great. Twitter is a bubble.