Your video last year was super helpful, and I’m glad you did a repeat this year! It gives a good structure for what films I should prioritize this year and which I should still see even if they aren’t likely to be ATL heavy-hitters.

Great to see such analysis of Karim works

“Backlighting throughout”, approx 3 mins of footage in an almost 3 hour movie 😑😑😑 what about literally every other part of the cinematography of the film? Like, the choices in Wizard and I with the colour prisms make up for the backlighting ALONE, not to mention the incredible feat of marrying the practical and cg world building. So exhausting, this line of critique.

That Michael Jackson movie will be trash and people will pretend to be shocked that it gets the bohemian rhapsody oscar treatment.

I would have The Memory Police quite a bit higher. In my opinion Kaufman is the greatest screenwriter full stop and the source material is very interesting.

OMG, Kendrick Lamaar is in the "top 2 musicians of all time" for you? I'm shocked. I understand you are very young, but such striking recency bias? Top 2 of all time??🤦😳 What about Pink Floyd, The Beatles, The Doors, King Crimson, George Michael, Bach, Mozart, Vivaldi, Chopin etc?...

I doubt that Michael Jackson biopic gets nominated "no matter what", it will be nominated only if it's good. If it get bad reviews it won't.

In The Roses Benedict Cumberbatch and Olivia Coleman are playing the married couple...? Really? Olivia Coleman? She could play Benedict's mother. Are you sure?

You have missed The Brutalist, Complete Unknown, Emilia Perez and The Substance last year...

Thanks for this! One advice for future videos: Bold text or an arrow on the film you're currently talking about. I wasn't paying full attention and had to rewind the video to understand which film on the list you we're talking about a few times.

my suoer ridiculously earliest Oscars 2026 predictions Picture The Life Of Chuck (Neon) Mickey 17 (Warner Bros.) Frankenstein (Netflix) Wicked: For Good (Universal Pictures) Superman (Warner Bros.) The Immortal Man [aka Peaky Blinders film] (Netflix) Hamnet (Focus Features) Marty Supreme (A24) Warfare (A24) The Bride (??) The Lost Bus (Apple Studios) Caught Stealing (Sony Pictures) 28 Years Later (Sony Pictures) The Phoenician Scheme (??) Magic Farm (Mubi) Ricky (??) F1 (Warner Bros.) Wake Up Dead Man (Netflix) The Smashing Machine (A24) The Way Of The Wind (??) Hand Of Dante (??) Plainclothes (??) Kiss Of The Spider Woman (??) The Running Man (Paramount Pictures) The Thing With Feathers (??) How To Train Your Dragon (Universal Pictures) The Actor (Neon) Mission: Impossible - The Final Reckoning (Paramount Pictures) Eleanor The Great (??) Omaha (??) Materialists (A24) Lilo & Stitch (Disney) Captain America: Brave New World (Disney-Marvel Studios) Thunderbolts (Disney-Marvel Studios)

I think The Life Of Chuck will get attention when it comes out..

no Sundance films?...

Judy 2026~

Thanks for the amazing breakdown

I do not believe in Wicked 2. At all.

We've already had the first film on this list fall - Inarritu's JUDY was just officially slated for 2026. It's still 2024 and I'm already taking Ls here.

I get the awards buzz for Michael but an Antoine Fuqua movie being a major main category contender also in for picture just doesn’t seem plausible yet

Kiss of the Spider Woman is surely a major contender no?

good job, bro!

What about PTA’s film with regina hall?

I do think Materialists is too low.

1:00:36 immaculate taste, Kendrick and Sufjan are two of the greatest ever

Marketing for BoBC will be pivotal in how it does.

Michael is going to happen and people will continue to doubt it. Footage at cinemacon was apparently amazing too

I've read Hamnet which is PHENOMENAL and Chloe Zhao is the perfect filmmaker to adapt it. It's lyrical and poetic and dreamy, right up her alley. Thanks for doing this! So much to look forward to!

the whole list is garbage

Thanks so much for more great film coverage. It’s really appreciated.

Thankyou for this video.... Its like a Christmas gift for movie lovers🎄🎁❤

Re: Sorry Baby: Jenkins and Romanski also saw something in Dirt Roads Taste of Salt which had a vague description as well and also went to Sundance. So unless this movie had an actor who’s on the come up for their first Oscar nomination like Paul Mescal was at the time (which I don’t think it does), then I don’t see much of a path for this movie after Sundance. Unless it’s one of the best of the fest.

Amazing video as always guys!

Thanks for doing this. I was curious about films coming out next year. I'm excited about The History of Sound, although I hate the thought of straight actors getting nominated for queer roles when Andrew Scott couldn't get nominated for All of Us Strangers.

W early predictions

I think OBAA can at least break even with a summer release and Leo’s star power.

As someone who get mad when people drop top 10 lists before the years over this absolutely set me off

a week early, you're too generous

Doing all the work for me, this is great! Tom Cruise with Iñárritu and Lubezki sounds fascinating, hope it comes out this year.

Kudos for putting this together. When doing super early predictions I have noticed that there are two types of years. There are years like 2023 or 2019 where we are aware of the big chunk of the major players from the beginning. Or there is 2022 or this past year where so many films absolutely crash and burn with The Son, Bardo, Empire of Light, Blitz, Joker: Folie a Deux and films come completely out of nowhere with Everything Everywhere All At Once, Top Gun: Maverick, The Brutalist, The Substance, Emilia Perez.. We'll see what happens this year. But goddammit if there will be a Best Picture nominee that wasn't among these 140 listed movies. Some thoughts on the rankings: I understand your reasoning behind Baktan Cross, but I cannot doubt that. I think having Leo headlining the film can have slight help with the box office. If Judy doesn't come out you gotta have a Warner Bros list in the 10 though. For some reason I have a feeling that one of Avatar and Wicked sequels won't make it, maybe it's the Academy's reluctance to reward follow ups. I think Avatar will drop off if the reviews are similar to The Way of Water because I really felt that got nominated by the skin of it's teeth. I think it needs stronger reviews, but I could see Cameron pulling it off. The Roses sounds so fascinating, but Jay Roach just hasn't impressed me with his films, hopefully having McNamara on board helps. My theory has been that The History of Sound will be Searchlight's push. I've been eyeing Ella McCay as a hopeful, but you kinda brought me back down to earth. If Marty Supreme and Dune 3 get nominated, Timmy will have an unbelievable amount of Best Picture nominees under his belt at like 30 lol. Crazy. Sentimental Value feels like a prime This Had Oscar Buzz title to me for some reason. Hopefully I'm wrong because I love The Worst Person in the World. Have this feeling No Other Choice won't come out this year (it's still shooting)

Amazing work, bro!

You're excused on the pronounciation ;) It's kinda like "Yo-ah-keem Trier". Also, FYI Sentimental Value will get a new title when it comes out so we have to be aware of that. Good points about Baktan Cross. I've got it very high on my list though. Agree on Chloe Zhao, Eternals doesn't count haha. And in the same vein as her, the next movie after a Best Picture-win doesn't have to be a masterpiece (I remember some people thinking Eternals for Best Picture-nom before its release), we have Bong. You're right on the money on Mickey 17. I don't think it's gonna be as bad as Eternals, but how they were about to burry that film, doesn't bode well. I think it's just gonna be completely fine, but nowhere near the Academy at all. I didn't know about I Love Boosters, and that one is definitely something that could ride the Demi Moore-train as you say. also don't think Bill Condon can bring back the magic. Very cool that you rank them and explain how they could fare in the awards race and how they could not. If I were to utter criticism, I would've loved for pictures to continue after the top 10. Understandable that most of these have little promo material/behind the scenes pictures right now, but maybe a marker/arrow that would go down for each title, so it's easier to follow? Anyway, just like last year, you're always giving out so many new titles for us to consider that we might not know about or think too much about. Merry Christmas and happy new year!

I’ve read the After a the Hunt script and I have a hard time seeing it being that strong. It will be a vehicle for Julia Roberts for sure but as a whole it just felt like a version of Tár that is missing the specificity and deep research into the world it’s set in that Tár had. Ayo’s character also came off as super one note to me, but it’s extremely baity material so she still has a good shot at a nom, altho I struggle to see her winning.

Nobody said The Bride is a musical lol. It just has a little dance and music numbers. Non of the cast are singers.

10:49 Yeah Colman Domingo really has to win Supporting Actor. He just has to!!!

THE ROSES sounds soooo good, like WHOAH. Damn! I need to see this NOW. I will be seated in that theater, I will be too seated.

2:58 I do not know why y'all keep predicting Christmas releases to win Best Picture. That corridor release is fucking cursed when it comes to winning any Oscar, let alone BP. Respectfully of course.

He really is the best, isn't he??!

I’m going to love hearing all of the different Oscar KZbin channels possibly bring up Tyler, The Creator because of Marty Supreme, never thought that would happen

This is incredible

You’re an absolute machine

Best Picture: 1. Anora 2. The Brutalist 3. Conclave 4. Dune: Part Two 5. Emilia Pérez 6. Nickel Boys 7. A Real Pain 8. Sing Sing 9. The Substance 10. Wicked Best Original Score: 1. The Brutalist 2. Challengers 3. Conclave 4. Emilia Pérez 5. The Wild Robot Best Original Song: 1. "El Mal" from Emilia Pérez 2. "Like a Bird" from Sing Sing 3. "The Journey" from The Six Triple Eight 4. "Kiss the Sky" from The Wild Robot 5. "Mi Camino" from Emilia Pérez Best Makeup and Hairstyling: 1. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice 2. A Different Man 3. Dune: Part Two 4. The Substance 5. Wicked Best Sound: 1. Dune: Part Two 2. Emilia Pérez 3. Gladiator II 4. Wicked 5. The Wild Robot Best Visual Effects: 1. Better Man 2. Dune: Part Two 3. Gladiator II 4. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes 5. Mufasa: The Lion King