selena is not a singer, she tried

That's a very fair rebuttal. I love Only Murders and completely forgot Selena is in that. That's on me - D

that's what i said, ariana's only acting award is a kids choice award

To be clear - nothing I've said is more than what could possibly be shown in trailers. That's my metric for a spoiler.

I disagree purely because I think there is a level of vulnerability that is difficult to reach in this. In my view, the purpose of acting is not to transform into someone else, or to create a new persona, but to find the parts of yourself in the character and use them. That's why casting is so important - it can bring us true authenticity. Playing yourself on camera is way harder than it seems, it requires a level of self-awareness that is very hard to learn. But if we're talking Ryan Reynolds, or Dwayne Johnson, or Kevin Hart playing every role in exactly the same way, then yeah, that's not good acting. Acting is finding authenticity, and I feel no authenticity from those guys. They're all playing a character, and it's the same character every time. But people drop this complaint on George Clooney all the time, and I strongly disagree, I think he's one of our great actors. Sure, he's not changing his voice or his persona all that often, but he always finds deeply authentic emotion, which makes every performance special. - M

If Jean-Baptiste wins the Volpi than I will certainly predict her for a nomination in spite of Bleecker Street! However, current rumors seem to be hinting that Hard Truths will not be going to Venice. We'll see if that's true when the lineup drops in July, but at the moment, things aren't looking great for the film. - M

I could just as easily turn around and say Glenn Close losing to a relative unknown in 2018 proves that Amy Adams won't win. It's impossible to cherry pick one win and use it to say that something will or will not happen, because every win is disproven by the exact case of another. And the thing with Butler v Fraser is that in the end, Elvis actually wasn't all that loved, with it losing every single craft category it was expected to take. The difference here is that I'm currently expecting Anora to be a huge winner, and if it meets my expectations, Madison has the edge. If Anora isn't the juggernaut I expect it to be, Adams can win on her narrative. - M

Tony my guy my dude my friend! I thought you were on the "narrative shouldn't win Oscars" train. Last year with Emma Stone v Lily Gladstone I feel like I remember you saying that it should just be about the performance, not about any of the other stuff. I'm going to say the same with Adams v Madison v Gaga v whoever else is contending. To me, it doesn't matter how many nominations someone has, I just want to see my favorite performance win. If Adams has my favorite performance, it's going to be nice to see her win after two decades of outstanding performances, but if someone else has a better performance, I'd prefer to see them win. - M

@@fantasyfilmball M- I appreciate the guy dude friend thing :) Fair enough. My only comeback is that I have not seen any of the performances yet so I am picking Amy Adams because I am an Amy Adams fan. However, if I do not like Adams' performance when the time comes, I will get off of the train similar to Carey Mulligan last year when I did not like her performance/Maestro. Keep up the good work my guy my dude my friend!

You haven’t seen Nightbitch

Mickey?

@@MrGoat-cd8lt Maddison

BAFTA Winners are annouced 2 days before oscar winners voting closed. I think we need to see what critics do this year + globes

I don't think that being American is much of a strike against films at BAFTA. Looking back at their lead acting winners, there have been a lot of Americans winning in very American films. Frances McDormand, Austin Butler (yes, the film was Australian, but Elvis is as American as it gets), Will Smith, Emma Stone (the first one), Casey Affleck, Leonardo DiCaprio. Anora is artful and has highbrow acclaim, which puts it in a good spot for BAFTA in my books. - M

That is not true. You typically do need it, especially with how much they like nominating co-leads in supporting. Unless you are Judi Dench.

It's not unprecedented. Steven Soderbergh made it happen in 2000 with Traffic and Erin Brockovich. However, it would take an absolute miracle. Challengers is the type of movie that's always going to play better to a younger, more online audience, and its early debut means it's easy to be overshadowed unless it gets a strong revival from critics. For Queer, we still need to see it get a distributor, and on a personal level, it doesn't sound overly Oscar friendly to me. I think both films will be in the conversation all year long, but it all depends how the rest of the year shapes up. - M

I have Emilia Perez as my number 6-10 in about 7 (Director, Actress, Supporting, Screenplay, Editing, Sound, Cinematography) categories at the moment, it getting two nominations (International & Song), and is my 12 in Picture... As for Wicked, no one has seen it, it COULD easily get 3+ tech nominations meaning it is in the conversation - D

@@fantasyfilmball yea matt, i like your predictions

I'm holding out hope for a Venice premiere, however if Nosferatu skips festivals then I think it's Best Picture chances are DOA - D

I definitely think there's a chance. I would want to see the reviews of the film have a dramatic uptick from the first (which I believe they will), and I also want to hear industry talking about how the musical elements "reinvented" or "redefined" what a comic book blockbuster could be. If people start talking about the film like it's completely changed the game, that's when alarm bells should start sounding for a director win. But if the response is "it's another Joker movie and it's what you expect", then no chance. - M

I don't think every single studio is *that* afraid of Trump.

@@FrakkinToasterLuvvawould love nothing more to be proven wrong

I still think it's possible that some bold streamer picks the film up at Telluride/TIFF and releases before the end of October. Get the film while it's a hot button topic, deal with the legal fees later. Honestly, if they wait till after the election, I think there's a significant chance that no one picks the film up in the US at all. - M

@@fantasyfilmballwhy does waiting until after the election hurt it? Considering the heat would be over it should be less controversial no?

@@friendlypup5650 Part of the buzz around the film comes from the controversy. More eyes on it when the film is relevant. The longer they wait after the election, the less pressing and "timely" the film seems to audiences and to voters. With politically charged films, it's always best to strike when the iron's hot and release it when it's a hot button topic.