Nuances, complexities & messaging in Economic Survey 2024: upbraiding pvt sector, cautioning markets

#cuttheclutter
Ahead of Budget 2024, the Economic Survey 2023-24 was presented on day one of the Parliament. In episode 1486 of Cut The Clutter, Editor-in-Chief Shekhar Gupta and Economy Editor TCA Sharad Raghavan discuss the highlights of the 500-page survey - economic growth, the question of agricultural output, the criticism of the private sector, concerns over stock market valuations, and financialization of the economy.
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To Read Economic Survey: www.indiabudge...
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To Watch Press Conference by Chief Economic Advisor V. Anantha Nageswaran & his team presenting the Economic Survey, PPT can be found here • Economic Survey 2023-2...
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To Read TCA Sharad Raghavan's Economic Survey on the private sector: theprint.in/ec...
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To Read TCA Sharad Raghavan's Economic Survey on the stock market: theprint.in/ec...
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To Read TCA Sharad Raghavan's Market capitalisation now at 140: theprint.in/ec...
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To Read The Economist's piece titled 'The world’s next food superpower': www.economist.....
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To Read the Financial Times' piece on 'The young investors gambling on Indian stocks': www.ft.com/con...
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To Read Economist's piece on 'Hedge funds make billions as India’s options market goes ballistic' www.economist....
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[@ThePrintIndia]

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[@vaishakh3]

The most worrying sign is that exports are flattening. CEA said that global growth isn't picking up, so if India has to grow it has to take market share away from China , but China has so much over capacity... And without exports there's hardly growth

[@rajbunsha8834]

that might be true but we can improve on quality and even price but i see that very difficult with private sector not investing in intellectual property

[@rahulkhapne7922]

The reason for sharp grown in Stock Market and Valuation is the Govt Itself. They crushed small savings which happened through banks by keeping Interest Rates lower for almost 5-7 years. Inflation has beaten the interest rates offered by Banks. So they went to stock markets for higher returns.

[@sandrew1563]

That’s how the rest of the world works. High bank interest rates is a socialist legacy that we need to move past. Chinese banks gave people 0-2% interest when inflation was 4-6%

[@PriyansuLearning]

Interest rates aren't set by the government but by private banks that are further influenced by RBI

[@mady5647]

Usually small saving or bank rates are kept 1-2% higher than Avg inflation-rate except this year due to high-food prices. Stock market were buoyant due to higher digitization, retail participation and performance of listed compaines.

[@creativemaster007]

Abe GNDU ke bachhe interest rate govt nahi set karti hai..

[@swativaidya7279]

There are no incentives for micro-entrepreneurs which are actually reaching on ground. On policy level everything is good. But Government should check what is actual implementation. Financial assistance is still not robust. PS banks don’t pass the lower rate benefits to retail customer and show higher profit. HDFC is such example. I urge you to do research in these areas.

[@xxyz2023]

Bihar (20%) & rajasthan (30%) are suffering due to severe lack of any type of manufacturing in these States. Currently, India has trade deficit with 9 out of the 10 nations coz we don't manufacture anything at the price (due to high inflation & custom taxes on raw materials) that these nations wants to buy. Also, why will businesses invest now, when tax dept is creating an environment of uncertainty & fear by using regulation compliance to arm twist owners to give one party political donations? At least these businesses are investing in buildings, unlike Corporate A who is hiding its funds in the Cayman islands. Land consolidation = is code word for big corporate families like Corporation 'A' to push out farmers & take over farm land in punjab. Unemployment rate is the highest in Haryana at 34.5 percent followed by Rajasthan at 28.8 percent, Bihar at 21.1 percent and J&K at 15.6 percent. Unemployment has become an epidemic in India. India's unemployment data is from CMIE: 2024 (6 months) = 9.2 percent 2023 = 8 percent 2022 = 7.33 percent 2021 = 6 percent -demonitisation Indian SMEs suffered a blow, still struggling to find their footing -note ban gst cost 113 lakh cr 16 crore shave off 43 of gdp of informal sector -households debt surged to fresh high by December 2023 report -spike in food fuel prices push wpi inflation to 13 months high in April -express mobility unsold inventory for carmakers soars to rs 60000 crore

[@pratyushojha]

Wow, did you write all this by yourself?

[@Adi-oc2hd]

​@@pratyushojhaNah, it's just copy paste Congress IT cell bot

[@Adi-oc2hd]

Sounds like a crybaby analysis..land acquisition is utter comedy🤣Only one of your 2 Corporation A is nearly into road construction that too just a few sections of Ganga expressway. And what is this nonsense, you are recouped upto 5-6× of circle rate but still crying and when their are no Expressways/Rail lines/HSR/RRTS in the region, you guys are first one to cry. Punjab farmers have blocked at least 60 NHAI projects, 3 projects have been permanently suspended, and projects like Delhi Amritsar Katra expressway, Ambala Gorakhpur expressway are facing serious hurdles, delays are only gonna come at taxpayer's money, not those rich farmers who drive in jeeps and pay 0 income taxes.

[@agentjacob4099]

The financial crisis is primarily the fault of the Federal Reserve, which gains indirectly from bank failures, bank-owned real estate, and even more affordable cars. Production cannot be printed, but printing credit is acceptable as long as it is printed. Is that right or wrong?

[@OscarOwenn]

Although reducing the rate from 7% to 6% won't benefit anyone, they are free to do so now that it's too late. And consider any recession-fed cuts followed shortly after a market meltdown. If they are pricing in a September rate reduction, a crash by January is likely.

[@FreemanJameZ]

Completely concur. The Fed's strategies backfired miserably. The usage of an endless paper printer by the government has harmed the lives of millions of people. At times like this, advisors ideally help you learn how to grow your money.

[@agentjacob4099]

I firmly believe that learning from a seasoned legal counsel is invaluable. My portfolio was swinging like a seesaw before I sought guidance from a certified expert in the midst of the rona outbreak in early 2023. Even with inflation, I've been able to raise my assets to almost 200,000 dolls as of right now with more investments.

[@FreemanJameZ]

Best wishes! I have a demanding job and don't have time for investment analysis. I'm worried that my five-figure retirement savings may depreciate; would you think about implementing a similar strategy?

[@CoreyLloydo]

You'll be safe if you invest on food and utilities, bro.

[@vaishakh3]

18:58 why are they investing in buildings, how will they derive profits if they invest in buildings and not in machinery?

[@turbulantarchitect5286]

buildings don't need employees, machineries do. avoiding employing people is the biggest source of their income.

[@vedantyesade2532]

Well households investing in dwellings is also Private investment. Added to that, firms are investing in structures for multiple reasons, logistics spaces, data centres, retail outlets etc. Most of these things do not require any machinery to function but are important for businesses.

[@sadanandgote5544]

Marginal farmers should now come together, form farming cooperatives so that economies of scale could be achieved. However this is easily said than done.

[@ananymouse3988]

If a family invests in a new car it would spend say about Rs.10 lakhs. In other words Rs. 10 lakhs worth of goods and services(from mining materials, manufacturing by various vendors and OEM, transportation, to sales). If a family invests in a new house it would spend say Rs.30 lakhs or at least Rs. 20 lakhs with all associated activities listed above. Think of the distribution of employment between car manufacturing and home material manufacturing. And majority of families would prefer to build/buy a home first rather than car.

[@hmmmm6685]

I think there is a LAG of 3-4 years. As you will need machinery after building is complete, why you will buy in advance. Government can lower taxes on middle class and raise PM kisan from 6 to 9 thousand and boost consumption.

[@shantanu_d]

A very informative and balanced review that shines light on the important things that sometimes goes amiss. TCA is a good find Shekhar Sir.

[@ramdesai1063]

Agricultural sector got good coverage Am surprised eco survey doesnot talk about tax reforms If there r 9 cr investors in market, how come there r lesser tax payers though there is no need for direct correlation ..how does govt mobilise more tax evaders to pay taxes ?? Income tax needs rationalization Public Asset monetization somehow misses details

[@spsingh5465]

CEA has misled while trying to compare FAR and car parking in factories.....singapore & Hong Kong are city countries, with well connected public transport - metro, bus etc, where private car ownership is almost punished, we are opposite, almost non existent public transport, without private transport one cannot survive in NCR or B'lore.....CEA should go and visit old Maruti plant and see how many cars are parked on "old Delhi-Gurgaon" highway, has he seen industrial areas of Noida / Mohali Sonipat....did he go there in a car or public transport...almost all roads are lined with private cars .....

[@subhrangsudutta8029]

Thank you very much for such a compact episode on preview of Union Budget. Thanks to your Financial Expert for his expertise. I've just came accross on Blink of your Advertisement on Institute/School of Journalism. If this is a new project by your Group, I congratulate & wish for a Success of the Venture. There is a warning too, may be, we need curtail our Screen Time on 'The Print' as well 😮😊🙏🙏

[@chandramoulibaskaran3886]

1. Private sector’s investments in automation has quadrupled in the last 3 years. 2. The rate of growing Obesity among people in 22-35 (particularly in IT, ITES and Financial sectors) is alarmingly high 3. Mis-selling is a myth. Consumers are made aware of every single aspect of the product and services that they are buying from financial institutions 4. Good quality stocks with improved governance will always attract investors. That’s how the so called developed economies and countries have evolved. Here again the investors have educated far better than they were a few years ago. So, no surprises; least of all no fear!

[@prakashraghunathan2685]

Thankyou shekar sir for bringing up the economic survey .Thank you sharad sir.

[@TerraIncognitaz]

Examples of Asian Financial Crisis and 2008 Recession is not scare, Mr Gupta, but to CAUTION individual/retail investors against future loss. Get your choices of words appropriate in such cases too where common people's interest are more at stake.

[@harisundar8698]

Economic Survey seems to be very honest in its assessment. Government’s ability to revive MSME’s, upgrade skills of youth, reviving labour intensive sectors like textiles, footwear and renewable energy will significantly impact India’s growth. It is also time government seriously join hands with academia and industry to accelerate changes. We are losing time.

[@tubelz]

Thank you for the graphics. Visuals enhance understanding.

[@shreyaslahoti7542]

Thank you for the deep dive into the economic survey.

[@sanjoyghosh2113]

Govt. should provide substantial and clear data on sectors where employment increase has happened. In my opinion, employment should be defined by number of days an employable person is gainfully employed and earning at least Rs. 2.50 lacs to Rs. 3.00 pa.

[@nandukumar1826]

Dear SG, You missed an important point from the survey. It said 'Over 70% of Indian graduates are unemployable.' Which I believe weighs much more than any subject in our country.

[@PremdasDutta-iw7nw]

Planned urbanisation must be pushed forward.

[@santhoshbm8]

Fun part is. GDP is growing but the per capita income is coming down. The Gap between Rich and Poor is growing. Middle class are squeezed by taxes.

[@PradeepSNair]

There was no need Shekharji to add those caustic comments on the survey looking at long term impact of sedentary lifestyle and non-vegetarianism to the economy.. Just because it doesn't suit perhaps your personal preferences and subscriber profile.. Other than that, was a good CTC

[@PremdasDutta-iw7nw]

Encorage in manufacturing and exports.

[@newtech5160]

India competing with Bangladesh is difficult forget about competing with China.

[@rajx7120]

The restrictions on land use was revelatory. Parking space rules, really? In a country, where car ownership is low, is ridiculous.

[@sureshdk7425]

Sir, My age is 75 years, about 65 years back every family was having minimum 3-5 children as of now many families have only 2 or 1 child per family. The doubt is how population is going increase by 2036.If you never mind please clarify and oblige. Sender Suresh from Bengaluru , Karnataka.

[@amarnadhreddy4806]

Please explain it chapterwise sir

[@jaydeepgadhavi5465]

Doubts on PLI are genuine. We have seen many reports how our dependence on China is increasing in the same sectors where the PLI scheme is extended.

[@PremdasDutta-iw7nw]

Cooperative among farmers backed by and mechanisation modernisation would help to increase productive.

[@ahpoddar1]

The points raised in this video are scary aspect of the share markets.. the increased taxes should help in offsetting this behavior and reduce the market volume.. is this the intent of the government?

[@GiriDharan14]

The energy and land use inefficiency of meat with respect to a gram of protein (as opposed to just calories) is also high. This has been noted in all the major climate change reports as well. The conventional wisdom that animal protein is around 90% digestible compared to 60-70% for plant based protein is true but misleading with respect to efficiency precisely because it ignores the energy and land costs associated with the production of the said 1 gm of protein (you can also take green house gas emissions into account as well which would just skew it even further). And ultimately the question should be how we allocate land, energy and the Green house gas budget efficiently and that would be to put a reasonable price on all of the inputs and on all pollution associated with farming (Denmark recently put a tax on meat to take into account the GHG emissions associated with it). But considering such changes are not popular it's better to use less meat (especially high income people who eat it frequently) which would be better for the environment and would simultaneously reduce the demand for land thereby reducing prices of vegetarian protein which is consumed at a higher rate by low income people.

[@jaydeepgadhavi5465]

It's interesting how they talk about external debt to GDP ratio when India's public debt to GDP ratio is crossing 80-100 percent levels. I do wish one day I can write such nice things in such highly discussed document !!

[@hmmmm6685]

It's 81% now And will be 72% by 2026-27 if government keep their promise of 4.5% fiscal (+6-7%gdp growth) deficit. Which are they doing for last 2 years.(reduction from 85% in covid times) So hope no big freebies and efficient capital expenditure.

[@vivekthakur6009]

Sir plse do a in depth analysis !

[@nntta29]

Hey Print!! why do you think its funny that CEA comments on bad food habits being promoted. Its an important issue that will seriously effect the country's health and growth. It is a matter of concern and glad CEA talks about it. There is a serious need to check food pollution/adulteration. This is serious risk of rise if pesticides, other chemicals used to keep fruits and fresher, sweeter etc. There are few findings of adulteration in teas, pani poori, chicken shawarma etc.

[@shamkulkarni1367]

Thanks

[@ThePrintIndia]

Dear Sham, Thank you for supporting ThePrint's journalism.

[@bakuleshantani7431]

Pointer to Sharad. For derivative trading you don’t need a dmat account. One amusing observation. Modi Government says private sector is not investing. Rahul,the innocent,says the Government is only letting the private sector to invest.

[@blueskyloo]

Yeah...if the private sector is at the root of everything wrong, nationalize everything. the word private seems diluted pretty much. Also govt is worried not about people losing their saving, or else gst would be less on many items, fuel would have been included by now.....they r worried incase of a market drawdown investors loosing money will vote them out of power... Also taxing is never a solution to speculation...funniest thing i have ever heard 😄 Sedentary habits began when computers were introduced, it aggravated with the introduction of smartphones...and then 4g... Problem lies in educating the people/children about good habits...health or financial, which the education ministry has failed badly in...among other things.

[@1008apocalypse1008]

There is nothing special about Punjab except that it has the most stupid policy makers and political leaders. States like Gujarat, Tamil Nadu are happy to provide land resources for setting manufacturing units.

[@mustanganady]

thank god there is a lot of criticism of PVT. sector, they blatantly being greedy, not creating jobs despite huge profits🤔👌🙏, they didn't stop there they exploiting labor so much look at 14 hours a day means 70 hours a week dream project of सन्की बुढा narayan murty

[@sarabjits7679]

We need to watch for transfer of sermons to budget

[@parvadhami980]

And Karnataka Government wants reservations in the Private Sector.

[@rajiv8k]

The Karnataka government wants to divert attention from a corruption case. The reservation bill is just smoke and mirrors to distract the public. Working pretty well. They are tarnishing the image of the state in order to save their own.

[@12345614489]

Shame on Karnataka Govt

[@DataCrusade1999]

Bill on hold. Haryana has similar law already in place.

[@Life.is.a.library]

There is no point in explaining Chief economic advisor's presentation, he only point out the positive image, and thats why shekhar should have dig in more the survey than this presentation.

[@PremdasDutta-iw7nw]

We have to diversify our exports.stress must be given to african as well as south America region.

[@abhijitdeshmukh6902]

Sharad wanted to do an episode of Macro sutra but SG pulled him here

[@12345614489]

Overall, India is doing good.

[@xxyz2023]

Currently, India has trade deficit with 9 out of the 10 nations coz we don't manufacture anything at the price (due to high inflation & custom taxes on raw materials) that these nations wants to buy. India's manufacturing sector has fallen from over 51 million in 2016, to less than 36 million in 2023. Manufacturing shrank from 17% in 2010 to 13% in 2022 to 11.4% in 2023, as per Index of Industrial production performance data. Large corporations often engage in tax evasion by moving funds to offshore tax heavens like the Cayman Islands, allowing them to hide wealth, for 10 generations to live like kings, & without contributing back to the nation.

[@DataCrusade1999]

You didn't listen to anything that shekhar said.

[@fekubuster2833]

Overall, Bharat is racing towards disaster. Only INDIA can stop and reverse this decline

[@Adi-oc2hd]

🤣🤣🤣​@@fekubuster2833

[@Adi-oc2hd]

​@@xxyz2023Lmao it is back to 17% of GDP in FY2023 and is being planned to reach 25% by FY 2024-25..how much twisted facts you present

[@kbmehta4208]

Why blame the private sector? They don’t make policy, Govt does. Don’t blame private sector, make policy to change direction.

[@grapeshott]

The govt still acts like a parent. It can't shake off its old habits

[@kirvesan]

Sir, the advert played at the beginning is very boring in contrast to your presentations which are always so interesting. Can this ad be done away with?

[@SoumyaMukherjeejoy24]

share the economic survey 23-24 ppt link

[@bosepukur]

was wondering why print didnot cover Economic survey :)

[@Nirmal-h2n]

If Modi shah can win a sarpanch elecion without muslim mandir masjid, mutton , mugal mujra rhetoric, I will also vote for them

[@draviaartistwithbat5756]

They will win for sure if people voted based on the growth, and prosperity. But that is not the case, what can we do?

[@xxyz2023]

​@@draviaartistwithbat5756hey, he is saying that this party can't win with vikas so they can only do doing hindu-muslim, mugal, mujra rhetoric etc

[@Nirmal-h2n]

@@draviaartistwithbat5756 l why was modi asking for votes in the name of hindu Muslim? But that what more to expect from a career rioter 😂😂😂😂

[@gauravsukre52]

11:15 look what mere suspicion and narratives cost us

[@sreekumarpai6665]

Most of the trading happen in f&o, that too,by Fiis, and foreign funds, and stave off money, to off shore, just to please their investors. Sebi shud intervene and stop this.

[@debsankarray]

This is how Neo-liberalism has unfolded around the world ! Since India has embraced a turbo-charged version of the Neo-liberal macro-economic framework given how it received so many carrots due to Globalization, which is a necessary part of the Neo-liberal mandate, this was inevitable. It remains to be seen how India tackles the subsequent crashe as a nation But, since India would be on a growrh path for the next two decades, the effects would not be devastating - that is the hope.

[@abilashgsp]

Save Arjun save Arjun save Arjun

[@PremdasDutta-iw7nw]

Unless population growth rate in bimaru states there would be no qualitative change in india

[@realself9599]

Poor Rahul Gandhi.....because of his non stop rant about Adani and Ambani....he could not go to the mega Anant Ambani wedding even though he was invited.

[@PremdasDutta-iw7nw]

Untill population growth reduces in bihar up mp rajasthan.rural women education and investing on public health are required to reduce unproductive population.

[@nivedvasukuttan7633]

The India model is always always conservativism .... we need to take risk to get return.... we are very rich country see the gold lying with the ppl in our country... for for thought

[@maniaphobia4719]

Then what’s the need for Freebies !!!!

[@thisoverpcworld]

I don't know about how much we Indians actually know about anything. But a large section of people get impressed by good English speaking people even today. As a common man I don't have any idea what way we are conservative and what risk we need to take. All I am seeing is consolidation of power by select few corporates while the middle class is getting their dreams shattered day by day.

[@Karanshah1986]

You're barely audible since a month or two Mr. Gupta, kindly wear the mic closer to your face or please get a better mic!

[@AkshayKanchan-v5q]

Mr Gupta supports communist congress and want Farm reforms- such irony. Greater irony is Mr Gupta still make more sense than all others journos and I am here everyday

[@manjulashanmugasundaram706]

Congress is as capitalist as it gets. Heard of 14 hour work week demand by I T sector employers in Bengaluru? Congress government in Karnataka positively considering it.

[@Abhishek-ti5er]

❤.

[@parvadhami980]

27:52 Classic Maai-Baap Sarkar 😂

[@sreetejasakamuri8645]

BASE?

[@demtalostsoul8565]

Biggest masterstroke of BJP was in terms of cooperate tax... which citizens are paying for ??

[@xxyz2023]

Exactly right, Corporate tax was double of income tax, but in last 10 years, the corporate tax is much lower. These corporates give political donations. For the vast majority of Indian corporations it's 22% & foreign corporations is 30%. The revenue loss is covered by income tax now.

[@manjulashanmugasundaram706]

Land consolidation, eh? And Financialisation! Isn't that like, an open admission of corruption?

[@nitinpatel1039]

Time for govt to separate agriculture from crop farming, more focus on animal husbandry, poultry, aquaculture over burning money on over the top msp on grain procurement, as survey pointed out govt subsidy on fertlizer has doubled in last 2 years which is not sustainable in long run

[@musicbylalit453]

Always good to hear your analysis except those concerning Military. However, you mentioned about 1941 census not held due to WW2. Indian mainland wasn’t involved as much in it until the Japanese came knocking on the doors. However, in 2020-21 India was deeply engulfed by the pandemic. Hence, really can’t fault the govt for not holding the census by endangering the large number of govt officials and the citizens. App kabhi kabhi kahin chook jaate hain which forces some of us to think that you are a partisan journalist - my prime reason for not subscribing to your paid offers.

[@InfiniteQuasars]

Ab to covid khatam ho gaya hai. Karale census.

[@abilashgsp]

Save Arjun

[@PremdasDutta-iw7nw]

Private sectors are not investing in eastern india.

[@ramachandrankannan274]

The protests against farm laws were by entitled arathiyas in the states with lowest agricultural yields. Let us be honest and not call it farmers protests

[@xxyz2023]

paper leak is not paper leak, farmers are not farmers, jawans are not jawans, pm is not human

[@samg7123]

Please also cover the unnecessary rant on climate change in last chapter. It conveniently ignores the case for actual pollution and it's affect in our cities and country but complaint about you people eating beef and using toilet paper In west. When we want o talk size of economy we talk as fifth largest and not per capita but for pollution we want to talk per capita. Too much hypocrisy and we have our head in sands. Call spade a spade

[@Republic_Unbowed]

Its good economics not the crony one

[@fekubuster2833]

Shekhar Gupta is a stooge of M/s.Chowkidar Tadipar & Co.

[@PremdasDutta-iw7nw]

Data doctored.opaque government.modi budget to save government only bihar andhra benefitted.nothing for bengal.no vote to bjp.

[@albatross9995]

Blah blah blah blah...... It doesn't reflect the state of the people in the main street😊

[@Nirmal-h2n]

If Modi shah can win a SARPANCH elecion without muslim mandir masjid, mutton , mugal mujra rhetoric, I will also vote for them