Odds Are Against India Ever Becoming a High Income Developed Country

[@randomyoutuber1856]

As long as criminal and thugs are in politics and bureaucracy and people don't elect good people in politics, India will remain poor.

[@Dadasahab1234]

Only dynasts are unhappy.

[@jacobcheriyan]

​@@Dadasahab1234, every small business person is unhappy with terrible infrastructure and high taxes. Sanghis like you will support ruling party at the expense of the nation.

[@Dadasahab1234]

​@@jacobcheriyanReal andhbhakt s think so.😮

[@surojeetchatterji9966]

​@@jacobcheriyan which small businessman? What is their output & Export ? Importers & traders r not considered too much valuable for nation.

[@jacobcheriyan]

@@surojeetchatterji9966 , do you know how many SMEs closed down because of demonitisation? You will know only about corporates.

[@Seeker2324]

China’s Nominal per capita GDP is US$12,720 which is 85% of the $15,000 for a “high income” country. At 5% compound annual growth, that’s less than three years away. By ppp assessments, at over US$25,000, China is already well within the “high income” category. So it is NOT in the “middle income trap” : so please do not lump it together with India and Brazil. And YES, it IS difficult to escape the “middle income trap” because you need to develop your human capital, your healthcare, look after your people first and foremost. Then develop your industry and technology with sensible, effective government policies. This is what India has signally failed to do, and continues to fail miserably at, while they continue to chase the “we will be the biggest economy by 20__” delusion. It is not a competition, but a long, hard slog. As one analyst I read said : India has a post-industrial attitude with a largely agricultural economy. You cannot develop a country effectively, with ambitions for nuclear fusion and space travel, while 30% of your population are illiterate and you cannot even provide dependable electricity to your cities. You need to provide jobs for the under-employed masses by first developing light industry rather than concentrating exclusively on robotics and high tech. A vast but uneducated population is NOT a “demographic bonanza” but a demographic nightmare as those illiterate under-productive hundreds of millions have to be fed and healthcared and housed and looked after. That is if the government even cares. But if they do not, and do not alleviate the misery, then they will lack the stability that is also essential for effective development. China is not shackled by the “Middle Income Trap” because they are the “factory of the world”, but they now also dominate 37 of the 44 advanced technologies essential for the 21st century (ASPI), and are dominant in the associated industries and control all those supply chains. Which assures continued development and advancement. And their literacy rate is over 99%. And they put their people first before the welfare of the wealthy - something that cannot be said for the overwhelming majority of nations in the world.

[@Neel71]

Dude, PER CAPITA WISE INDIA WILL NEVER EVEN CATCH SRI LANKA!.... Yes, that "bankrupt" Sri Lanaka!! =========================

[@madrasman8883]

Talk about their artificial growth in provinces and debt

[@hatebreeder999]

China putting their people first is biggest joke 😂 seems like OP is CCP bot What you wrote about India is true, it's very backwards but still Chinese are more miserable under CCP so all those development is kind of waste as china is dystopian nightmare. People are constantly monitored and fined for silly things

[@selassietetevie4966]

If India doesn't get rid of its caste system, they can forget it.

[@rahuldutt1358]

China's growth engine, it's factories employing in Shenzhen and elsewhere are shutting down at a massive rate. These factories employed the rural poor by the millions. Chinese growth has flattened and it's real estate bubble built on ghost cities and tofu dreg construction has burst.. youth unemployment is through the roof so much so that the Chinese govt has stopped publishing that data and considers anyone who works an hour a week as employed. So while India's situation may not be ideal, its not as dystopian as China. We have strong and robust democracy, a lot of individual states are doing really good - Karnataka, MP and Guajarat and even Orissa have very livable tier 2 cities with robust local economies. And further we are not facing a population collapse like the Chinese. So doom and gloom if you must, but we have grown a lot in the last 14 years, now we need to adapt to the new AI led economic model, where job losses will become commonplace.

[@subodhjanardhan2261]

We need educated youngsters in politics ,not goons & bluff masters ,uneducated fraudsters in the center till then we will remain at the bottom

[@Dadasahab1234]

First 50 years wasted. Narsimha Rao opened economy. Thus India is lagging behind several developing countries.

[@mangalapalliv]

@@Dadasahab1234 : Yippeee I spotted a bhakt... blaming it on the past......

[@stallionspirit1576]

educated PM...took us to fragile five economies in 2013...lol

[@SudeeptaChakraborty]

@@stallionspirit1576 Please do some research on the term Fragile Five instead of getting fixated with the dictionary meaning. It was only coined in 2013 and to be in Fragile Five meant you are significant enough to be considered there and had an overdependence on foreign investment. Moreover it was just the opinion of Morgan Stanley. In fact had India not been growing so rapidly during the UPA years, it wouldn't even have been considered to be included in Fragile Five - rapid expansion, growth momentum and significant investment market were basic criteria to be even considered. The fragility was because of the perceived overdependence on inflow of foreign money. No wonder, in the very next list India was out signifying that the fears of overdependence were incorrect and it couldn't have been without the solid basics India was already build upon. Please thank MMS for that.

[@ASeeker-9999]

@@SudeeptaChakrabortyWhat’s your opinion on what economists call -India’s lost decade?

[@davidkrupadanam1179]

About 10% Indians .. who had generational advantage... businesses.... large land holdings and quality educational opportunities ... upper castes... are presently in middle income zone .There are never equal opportunities to other 90% Indians

[@matthewmarkus2495]

@@davidkrupadanam1179 But those guys themselves have it bad with the new tax regime. India is now just a hierarchy with 50-60 families on top. Everyone else is suffering.

[@michealanderson2282]

@freedom1234-s6p agree completely, instead of complaining , improve yourself, work hard and then there are enough opportunities to grow.

[@matthewmarkus2495]

@freedom1234-s6p No. Pro tip: Get a passport and leave. If you work hard like an average Indian worker in any foreign country. You will be in top 20%

[@matthewmarkus2495]

@@michealanderson2282 You are deluded. India simply does not have enough jobs for all the youth. *The economy isn't that big* . The only alternative is to grow like 14-20% year on year. And massive FDI. More FDI than China gets.

[@michealanderson2282]

@@matthewmarkus2495 last 10-20 years also we didnt have 'enough jobs', didnt we grow at 7-8% real and 12-15% nominal GDP growth. There are lot of jobs in unorganised section that you so called 'intellectuals/economists" dont see. India will grow inspite of all doomsday predictions. Let it take more time, but it will happen.

[@titaboria]

Data indicates that India will not even reach middle - income level by 2047. Why? Because our population will keep on growing until 2060, so per capita income will remain constrained AND the middle income levels will also keep on growing. If we assume that Thailand is at the lower end of middle income and Thailand's per capita income grows by 2.5% per year, then India's per capita income will catch up Thailand's only by 2050. This calculation assumes that India will continue to grow at 7.5% per annum, a tall order!!

[@daanishpadha5261]

The population growth has slowed down to be about 1% and will probably fall further. More so our inflation differential with US is pretty narrow, so the regular Ex-Rate depreciation wont continue, which would imply a 6-7pc nominal growth would make us a relatively higher-middle income or even higher.

[@mudra5114]

But after that, India's population will start falling and the standard of living will rise

[@ChandrasekharanKB-yp6uf]

It doesn't need an expert to confirm that given our current realities, we are not going to become a developed economy with equitable distribution of wealth in the near future 😂

[@brijesh7]

Exactly

[@MaxPayne-fi1mz]

Maybe in next 50 years.

[@stallionspirit1576]

India was the richest civilization for thousands of years...won'tbe too difficult ...to get to high income developed country in a few decades..case closed

[@temp-key-999]

@@stallionspirit1576 that was because we were the most populous country. our per capita income has never been very high in recorded history.

[@yourconscience27]

@@stallionspirit1576 yeah keep feeling proud of the past. Rich in culture, rich in this, that.. none of it matters when people are broke and hungry.

[@vs9324]

To be a high income developed country you have to get at least 8-10 things right starting with democracy, capitalism, women empowerment, rule of law, expeditious justice delivery system, high level of adherence to human rights, less dogma and religious intolerance, high literacy rate, world class educational institutions, substantial entrepreneurial ability and thriving MSME segment. India has some of these requirement but not all and what's more important is that it is lacking substantially in many.

[@archanadhanekar5680]

Supporting small businesses and highly promoting and investment in research and development manufacturing and exporting fully finish branded goods and tech products promoting equal and fair opportunity in business and market competition and not doing favoritism and crony capitalism

[@vs9324]

@@archanadhanekar5680 That will happen if we have world class educational institutions like Harvard and Stanford. Most of the R&D is done by Universities although they are funded by big businesses.

[@archanadhanekar5680]

​@@vs9324 True but we also promote small businesses too and economic freedom

[@brijesh7]

Very well said.

[@Zenoithegreek]

Those metrics suggest that the USA should be in the middle income trap. If India gets to a middle income per capita, we should be happy. It will raise 600-700 million out of poverty, which is an excellent thing. The high income/ per capita consume more than they need causing untold problems for the rest of the world.

[@rijzone]

Before Economic Freedom and Education, India needs Rule of Law

[@vishaltripathi6243]

There is no before or after, India needs concurrent progress on all

[@Student17625]

This man focused on reservation aka equal opportunity which India had since its inception, still where the US is and where we are. The World bank seems to be trying to justify equity over knowledge/experience/skill.

[@brijesh7]

Hindutva doesn't have the ideological framework to keep the country together.... forget about becoming a developed country....the struggle in coming years for India will be to stay a one union

[@stallionspirit1576]

Hindutva...made us the richest civilization for thousands of years..duh!

[@stallionspirit9317]

India was the richest civilization for thousands of years...won'tbe too difficult ...to get to high income developed country in a few decades..case closed

[@AMIBAVANI]

Hindutva ideology will pull back the progress

[@shaikhmohammadhasnain9069]

100% true.

[@vivek27789]

Harsh but true

[@yaoliang1580]

Why talk of high income when India is still very far from achieving middle income status

[@deepg2477]

It already is a middle income country

[@yaoliang1580]

@@deepg2477 your 'intelligent remarks' make me feel delighted, take some lessons in simple arithmetic

[@deepg2477]

@@yaoliang1580 you are your commu nist party hypnotized sample. Read imf definition of country income group...

[@yaoliang1580]

@@deepg2477 take some lessons in simple arithmetic

[@atulyasworld2799]

High income country discussion is a joke, go visit UP and Bihar and see how many people are jobless and near poverty line even though they come from middle class family.

[@raghvendrathakur4246]

Your comment may be appropriate 10-15 years ago. Now UP is moving fast on economic front and Bihar is also catching up fast. Below poverty level will soon become non-existent even in these states. My hope comes from my own experience. I come from Bihar. My father was Grade 3 employee but all his children are Grade 1 employees. So, whole family transformed from low income to high income family. And my family is not an exception. I see the same transformation in family of relatives and friends. There are lakhs of such families in Bihar which are moving up the income ladder riding on power of education and opportunity available across India.

[@Someone-ft4yw]

@raghvendrathakur4246 Your personal experience might have been different, but to say that soon BPL will be non-existent in the poorest states is being a bit too optimistic when over 80 crore people are receiving free rations. How many families do you personally know who earn an equivalent of the per capita income, that is ₹84,000 per month if it's a 5-member family.

[@Student17625]

Corruption is mainly responsible for most problems. Politicians, people in power and businessmen love corruption so that's why we see no change.

[@nuukizmir]

​@@raghvendrathakur4246Bihar is still very poor like Africa and has high population growth. Yes, most bihar youth are run after ias and other govt jobs like you. Bihar should produce entrepreneurs like Gujarat not jobseekers. Because business builded a Nation.

[@brockabaddy985]

The formula for Singapore's rapid development was summed up very succinctly by Kishore Mahbubani with the acronym MPH--Meritocracy, Pragmatism and Honesty. A simple formula which required the resolve of strong-willed and upright individuals in government to implement.

[@NicolaiTschenow7530]

Lee kuan Yew managed Singapore like a company, efficiency and getting rid of corruption. Big public housing projects was started in Singapore to get better living standards and this again helped against crime and corruption. Im not sure if the same could be done in India on a large scale, singapore is a tiny country which made it more manageable.

[@FXT130]

Comparing India with Singapore is meaningless. Even China's GDP per capita is below world average and 70th in world although China is 2nd largest in terms of total GDP.

[@shankarrajgopal5165]

I have been hearing for the last 45 years, that education for all is very important. But none of the fellows have done nothing.

[@THETRIVIALTHINGS]

Let me start. "None of the fellows have done nothing" is double negative. Incorrect. "Have done nothing" is the correct way to say that.

[@AnujSharma-oq9nw]

NEP 1986, SSA, RTE, NEP 2020, PM SHRI, PM POSHAN, APAAR, ECCE are some milestones

[@prajakt0789]

Kejriwal is going to turn things around for the country. Citizens must stand behind him against this traitor looter bjp.

[@sauron2000000]

​@@THETRIVIALTHINGS He did that to prove his point😂😂😂

[@DEEPRAWT]

@@THETRIVIALTHINGS And this educating comes from someone whose every letter is capitalised.

[@rajeevdeshpande9199]

Thanks

[@krishanrathi9119]

Countries that transitioned from low- to middle-income or high income status they did not place much emphasis on religion. Instead, they prioritized corruption-free governance, work culture, science, technology, education, healthcare, infrastructure, and entrepreneurship.

[@saviofrancisfernandes413]

Religion and caste is used to divide the population and benefit the vote bank politicians. This is common in many 3rd world countries.

[@manut1349]

you are spot on; religion and God makes us fight amongst ourselves,

[@matthewmarkus2495]

@@krishanrathi9119 America in particular seperated government and religion, the so called "seperation of church and state". Keep in mind all of the founding leaders of the US were staunch conservatives and deeply religious. But they were also intelligent/educated and knew the dangers of making religion a key facet of the nations political environment in general.

[@krishanrathi9119]

@@matthewmarkus2495 USA is 250 year old very advance democracy, India, though younger, has a strong and progressive Constitution. The freedom of religion is guaranteed under Articles 25 to 28, ensuring individuals can freely practice and propagate their beliefs. Although India's Constitution promises equality and freedom, widespread corruption in the executive weakens the rule of law, making it difficult to fully enforce these rights. The challenge for India lies not just in having a great Constitution but in ensuring its ideals are realized through transparent, accountable governance.

[@matthewmarkus2495]

@@krishanrathi9119 As far as I know. The Indian constitution is full of contradictions and is weak. Thats why most thiefs in positions of power never get punished. Or they just argue away any wrong doings.

[@raylee5030]

Thanks!

[@ChandrasekharanKB-yp6uf]

Our Demographic dividend is not available for centuries. When unemployment is so high, what demographic dividend are we going to derive?

[@saviofrancisfernandes413]

No country can manage such a large population...not even China. In India's case, this is a demographic disaster until the population reaches 60 to 70 crore at most.

[@jon_nomad]

@@ChandrasekharanKB-yp6uf we are going to achieve a major demographic disaster.

[@asmirann3636]

​@@saviofrancisfernandes413 If India goes back to even 100 crore population, then 90% of the problems of this country will be solved. I have seen the India when it had just 85 crore people. It was a beautiful world. So calm, so empty, more easy going people and most importantly peaceful. Too much population is not a dividend, it is a huge problem. The wealth creators of India and the ones who really contribute to the economy, growth, education are not more than 60 crore people. Rest everyone either is poor or the ones whose life is subsidized by these 60 crore people.

[@saviofrancisfernandes413]

@@asmirann3636 I believe that climate change, high inflation, lack of resources, less child births, less marriages, huge unemployment, religious demographic imbalance will cause internal civil war like conditions where the population will gradually get reduced to 80 crore in less than 5 decades.

[@vijayarajan3276]

Redefine demographic dividend. The benefit will be accrued not by India, but the countries that allows Indians to migrate. Some say, as the Chinese scientists have been returning home due to discrimination in US, Indians will naturally grab this opportunity. After all, Modi proudly proclaimed that India have the human resource that the world needs to power the global growth.

[@balajir9110]

Thanks for all the interviews and many more to come...thanks wire and KT for helping me to expand my ignorance and knowledge...

[@yajatsen2657]

Karan, i cannot thank you enough, the quality of your content, its authenticity its utility and its ability to start a debate is unparalleled. I am a student of law, i watch nearly your every interview, especially on indian economy. Improving education, especially public education is an imperative for a truly viksit bharat. Unfortunately neither our people nor our politicians understand this very simple point.

[@jayaessel5736]

The problem is with this electoral system where the politicians feel fear only a few months before the election but the citizens feel fear for the next 5 years after the election🙄

[@bhupindersinghkanwar5681]

Why Chinese did miracles by controlling public through centralized control India under democracy of fake western model is failed

[@darajivdua]

This should be an eye-opener to all Indians. However, most Indians do not have access to such information is in English. Add to that the whole fervour of so called nationalism and anti minority stand it will take India nowhere. The toxic mix of religion and caste-based politics can only lead India towards stagnation and not growth.

[@melwynphilips856]

To become a high per capita income country, India must focus on quality education, inclusive growth and equal opportunity to all sections of society. And for all of this to happen, Modi and his BJP must go.

[@SarcasticSaar]

And pappu should come 😂😂

[@Adi-oc2hd]

Neither Modi nor BJP is going anywhere from India, you surely may go to some other place😂😂

[@melwynphilips856]

@@Adi-oc2hd I did and so have many like me. The number of people migrating out of India is at it's highest now. An aspirational country which was looking forward with hope towards becoming a global giant, striding with confidence in the field of technology, space, clean and green energy... What have we become? A bigger version of Pakistan? The PM himself propagating bigotry and hatred and then doing some sort of dhyan in caves that is covered and telecast by his lapdog media. The government using it's agencies selectively against political opponents, democratically elected state governments being brought down using money power and these govt agencies, jailing CMs on flimsy charges, jailing students and activists and civil society members who ask valid and important questions, using brute force against protesters, making a mockery of parliamentary proceedings, degrading the highest offices and institutions of this country, absolutely no accountability, the first PM in history who has not faced the media since taking office ten years ago, the cabinet ministers follow suit, the narrative being built is that if you question the government, then you are a traitor and an anti-national, you may go to Pakistan. Funnily our government is promoting Pak tourism. Terrorists, rapists, molesters, corrupt leaders, bigots, people like Pragya Thakur, Ram Rahim, Brij Bhushan, Jindal, Rane, Ramesh Bidhuri, etc are part of the BJP. The BJP believes that saving cows is more important than safety of women, children and citizens in general. What with anti-minority bigots killing people in broad daylight on the slightest pretext, gau rakshaks out there in the open with no fear of the law of the land, this is what we have come to. We were once, not very long ago, the shining icon of democracy, a symbol of hope for countries suffering oppressive regimes, who the whole world looked up to. What have we become? A banana republic? Sad.

[@mahakaalvonjuggernaut420]

@@melwynphilips856 No problem. Good riddance of bad rubbish.

[@mahakaalvonjuggernaut420]

@@melwynphilips856 The banana republic was under the Congress........its long gone now..........just like you.........and so much for it.

[@FunNFury]

Nirmala should quit, the odds are that india's per capita is not going to improve.

[@SengpoSatbang]

I disagree.. not that the "odds are against endia", but there is absolutely 0 chances for endia. endian youth unemployment already hit 45% (officially could be as high as 60-70%). IT sectors has stopped recruiting new staff and even starting to lay off existing staff. Soon, the Chinese/American AI will replace 95% of these low tech IT coolie jobs.. endian Rupee hits a low 84 for a USD. Welcome to the inevitable coming collapse of endia.

[@kju-dja213]

pack 2 plates momos

[@FXT130]

Even China is also not a high income country. China's GDP per capita is 70th in the world although it is 2nd largest in total GDP. China's per capita is below global average of 13900 USD. It is very difficult for a high population country become high earning country.

[@abba747]

Dr. Gill talks about better use of capital or better resource allocation. That is only one part of the story - the more important part of the story is - extreme corruption, extreme red tape, not to mention crony capitalism which leads ruling parties to allocate resources in ways that benefit the top 10% of the population.

[@User_11_14]

I am a big fan of your journalism, Karan Thapar ji, and the way you conduct your interviews. Greetings from Nepal.

[@matthewmarkus2495]

There is a movie called Elysium. In the future, 92% of India will be like the lower earth in that movie.

[@Middle_boy345]

@@matthewmarkus2495 agree

[@erwin734]

Palki disagrees. India is super power and we need to focus on china.

[@vikramaditya47_]

you expect something from people who would vote for caste/free alcohol/ free food/ 100 Rs. during elections? No right ? Then stop day dreaming because these type of people are in majority in india

[@jjose3829]

India has a youthfull population ,but it wont be that way for ever ,if we cant get increase our pre income capita before our demographic shifts to being aging population we are internally screwed

[@AbhishekSingh-jf7co]

india will still have the world's biggest young population in 2100 too soo don't worry

[@stevenlai1199]

​@@AbhishekSingh-jf7coBharat Mata Ki Jai

[@brijesh7]

Irrelevant topic of debate for today's India. What should be debated if India will remain as a one union in coming years.

[@aniksinha3734]

Any reason behind your observation?

[@brijesh7]

@@aniksinha3734 reason is that more than ever before Hindutva has become dominant force in Indian politics. Even if one likes it or not it is here to stay. Even if in the future it goes out of power, it will still be dominant. Dominant power has to have some ideological framework that takes every one along. Not always cribbing. But we don't see signs of this rowdy child called Hindutva growing up. Contrary it is becoming more and more rowdy by the day.

[@aniksinha3734]

@@brijesh7 Just like left, no fact, data only propaganda. Observation without data not valid.

[@saviofrancisfernandes413]

​@@aniksinha3734This has happened in the past where 2 new countries were formed plus loss of part kashmir. Internal enemies are having external support and there is no guarantee of what can happen in the future. All countries borders change with time and this is historical fact

[@aniksinha3734]

@@saviofrancisfernandes413 Nope, no for nuke countries it's not possible and economically our neighbors are no where close to us. So it's completely illusion of some people

[@FreddieMurphy746]

Why do we want India to become a High income economy? 1.4 Billion people live here; that's like 20% of world's population. The focus should be to lift as many people as possible out of poverty by making them self sufficient in terms of economy and not to become a completely export driven country...

[@drjagritisingh6569]

Being a middle income country,our record is not goood ,be it chinq,Indonesia, even south Africa and brazil.our high immigration both illegal and legal shows that how well we are doing .forget about caring environment and climate change.

[@serenity8145]

Becasue like everything in life a high goal should be set in order to achieve it.

[@FreddieMurphy746]

@@serenity8145 You can't ask an elephant to sprint like a Cheeta.

[@hameed7939]

If the BJP continues in power in the Union government.We won't even become a Middle income economy.

[@mangalapalliv]

I will be happy if we will remain a medieval country by the end of Modi's rule.....

[@hameed7939]

@@mangalapalliv you're are absolutely wrong.When the leaders of nationalist movement particularly the Indian National congress conferred it's citizens universal adult suffrage irrespective of race, religion,ethnicity, language,rich or poor in the first general elections itself we made the transition from a medieval society to a modern democracy.Even the so-called developed countries like the United Kingdom gave voting rights for women only in the early 1920's.

[@stallionspirit1576]

BJP in power and we almost tripled per capita income..in 10 years...duh!

[@Bulldozz1-1]

Yeah sure let’s choose RaGa and his khata khat policies that will turn us into a Zimbabwean

[@aniksinha3734]

Does india has any opponent leader who qualify to be PM??

[@suryaprakash72771]

Fostering communal tension and disharmony in the name of religious extremism is more important for the fascist Hindutva government of BJPee than developing the economy and eradicating the poverty of the masses.

[@Dadasahab1234]

Islamists broke India into two in 1947. They are on their agenda. Look at voting trend. In Kashmir valley BJP got less than 2 % votes while, communal and fascist got 98 % votes.

[@suryaprakash72771]

@@Dadasahab1234 they did it back then but today the fascist Hindutva communal party of BJPee is dividing and polarising the country in the name of religious extremism and their brand of toxic politics. Isn’t that how they managed to cling to power by playing the religion and pseudo-nationalism card - albeit with a reduced and unstable majority?

[@surojeetchatterji9966]

@@suryaprakash72771 they r doing it in Iran & kashmir. It's not over yet.

[@suryaprakash72771]

@@surojeetchatterji9966 that’s just sanghi propaganda without facts and merit

[@aniksinha3734]

​@@suryaprakash72771Did we have any good alternative?? Rest are freebies and molla chanting party. Look at Bengal, It declines since independence

[@ianbynoe6515]

According to bald and bankrupt, a popular KZbinr, who just visited India, he said it's a failed state. I would say India is a doomed country after listening to this interview 😢

[@ASeeker-9999]

If India can become a middle income country and maintain low cost of living then that would be great!! High income in a country with high cost of living is no good as you can’t afford housing or necessities!

[@hassobhatia990]

India will be still chasing its tail even after 75yeas…

[@vinaykumar-ld3yi]

Most of the economists are not considering " rapidly phasing automation, rapidly depleting underground water. " This two things will change the complete economic status predicted by experts. No freebies, no reservation and strictly one child policy is required to save India. Basic needs like water power gas should be costly. The reason for India's low GDP is overpopulation created by freebies.

[@正咖]

In 2007, China's per capita GDP was $2,700, and the nominal economic growth rate of GDP that year was over 18%. It was not until 2023 that India's per capita GDP reached $2,700, with a nominal economic growth rate of only 7%. India's economic performance was far worse than that of China in 2007.

[@ArmageddonIsHere]

Your very presence here makes the whole channel and even OTHER comments here, suspect. Like a propaganda effort.

[@Theackermans121]

Our government don't focus on manufacturing and industrialisation. They are uneducated to even understand such concepts . The 1% rich keep their money within their circle and exploit the poor class .

[@TheBoujiman]

@@ArmageddonIsHere dude, get lost.

[@FXT130]

China's rank in GDP per capita is 70th, China is nowhere near to USA, European Countries in earning. One year 18% growth doesn't change everything.

[@tm73827]

As someone who had the privilege of working closely with Mr. Nandan Nilekani and others on the India Stack initiative, I am deeply dismayed by the profound ignorance exhibited by the guest, compounded by the host’s failure to challenge or fact-check such inaccuracies. The assertion that India Stack ‘borrowed’ or ‘copied’ Western payment systems is entirely unfounded. Having joined the UPI team after decades of experience at Goldman Sachs, I can state with authority that we deliberately rejected the fragmented and outdated Western payment systems in favor of creating an entirely open-source stack. This is a model that, if not for entrenched vested interests, Western nations could themselves adopt, as could those mired in the so-called ‘middle-income trap.’ There exists no global counterpart to Aadhaar and UPI-these innovations stand alone. I would strongly encourage the host to invite Mr. Nilekani to provide first-hand insights into these groundbreaking achievements. It is high time the host displayed both pride in the country’s accomplishments and the courage to defend them with integrity.

[@raghavansadagopan3905]

You are right. This was a singular achievement of Namdan and his team. And one has to credit the UPA govt for this. Modi used to be a resist from Gujarat and the NDA was even obstructive. When they cane to power and then realising the import of the developments stopped their resistance and even claim the credit fir these.

[@JohnLincolnUSA]

A lot of valid comments on what is required. One thing that India needs to openly discuss is the sheer lack of a critical mass of work force who are industrious, disciplined and non lazy! This is often not mentioned due to political correctness. This is a serious issue that India needs to seriously address! I am not referring to the few corporations where Indians are highly competent and committed! Look around!

[@vijurao8009]

Digital technology growth is good for consumer use but lags way behind in corporate usage. I had an NRI account (NRO) for the last 20 years or more. Could not operate it from overseas. ai had to attend to banking needs every 3-4 years when I was visiting. This time I changed to a a different bank and it took almost 19 days to open and activate the account. Precisely this kind of handicaps and Jugad business attitude hold back Indian economy to go where it can.

[@AbhishekSingh-jf7co]

😂😂😂😂... are bhai vhi consumer hi market mein jake gaadi khridega indin company ji tum jake nhi khridoge india is a consumption based economy, india ki growth india ka middle class chla rha hai

[@nvaravind5394]

This is very good journalism but I feel India won't become high income country.😅❤🔥

[@stallionspirit9317]

some people also felt...we wont be in the top 10 economy..lol

[@tarotakar3461]

Due to education system,corruption,uneducated politicians,gunda,caste,religious riots, andbhakt and focusing more on cow rather then human etc

[@stevenlai1199]

​@@stallionspirit9317Bharat Mata Ki Jai

[@stallionspirit9317]

@@stevenlai1199 Bharat Mata ki Jai

[@ecomatters3416]

India needs to improve on many many fronts - poverty, malnutrition, health, education , employment, jobs, research, infrastructure, environment, women empowerment, and many more. To top it all.governance has to be more than excellent to make up for previous lethargy snd losses. People also have to be enthusiastic, at least for the sake of their children.

[@gurbharti]

As long as people of the country keep on chewing the content given on media and not question the government's for their performance , rather behave like cheer leaders the country will remain reasonable only on statistics front . Though right now it's far from reasonable as well

[@jayanthlaxman9188]

Just a question. Did anyone think otherwise ? You needed an EXPERT to tell you that india will never become an overall wrll developed atio ? Ever !!

[@ranar1036]

Sir, you , too, are lost in numbers! It's NOT the numbers that matter. You can't have $40000 earnings in India today. If that was the case everyone would be a millionaire - therefore no need to work. Please be reasonable and realistic. You don't spend the same amount in India and in Europe to live a fair living -do you?

[@mustafaov9369]

This gentleman is an apologist - and is deflecting direct questions

[@dilbaghsingh5182]

Thanks Karan , you are doing a fantastic job here by enlightening the audience with important topics pertaining to various vistas whether it be economy, the politics, the social issues from time to time and your presentation is also good inviting the people with having knowledge of the subject.

[@srim8375]

Gill mentioned about special circumstances that took countries out of the middle income trap. For India, the special circumstance to escape this trap is to maintain strategic neutrality in a highly polarized world that is inevitably going to see WW3. History shows that such countries are always the biggest winners once the war is over. Also, this will be true provided there is continuity of policies and leadership in India that so far is doing all the right things for the economy. It is also interesting to note that the countries that escaped the middle income trap were/ are authoritarian states. We cannot blindly follow these countries being a democracy. Hence the special circumstances for India will be different. But always good to copy what can be copied within the constraints. Just wait for a decade more and you’ll see.

[@kudaisiaduntola2523]

Great discussion. But I do struggle with the following statement: "Looked at countries in India's situation". One cannot compare India as it is simply incomparable. Feeding 1.3 or 1.4 billion people living in a relatively small geographic area is a huge challenge.

[@AbhishekSingh-jf7co]

yess it is

[@FallenLeavesReturnToRoots]

Yes, India has a large population for a relatively small geographical area, but India has the most arable land of the world. The climate is great for agriculture. However, the country ranks 105 out of 127 countries in Global Hunger Index (2024 data). The problem has to be beyond the size of the land.

[@ArunSharma-w3v]

Humpty and Dumpty sitting to gaze into the future of India 100 years from now.

[@infytrade730]

Keep it up… need people like you to lead such important aspects to waking up a class of people who understand thses

[@ranajitroy9938]

Per capita income here in india? Corruption... Nepotism... Government slow down, transmission losses r too high

[@stallionspirit9317]

per capita income increased 2.5x times.. in 10years..duh!

[@Riyan1India]

​@@stallionspirit9317 it's not enough bro

[@stallionspirit9317]

@@Riyan1India itz not enuf...but it shows the trend...of the future...of becoming high income country

[@aburetik4866]

@@stallionspirit9317 all thanks to inflation

[@virenshk]

Very insightful. Three strategic intervention 1.Ooening up the economy 2. Higher Women participation in economy and 3. Education ! I will add Health Services.

[@rajenlama.6850]

Good afternoon sir. To raise the per capita it is obviously true to learn from other countries, the elements of raising per capia like economic freedom, equal opportunities to all section of people and investment on education . It is analyzed very deeply by Dr Gill how to raise in terms of per capita level . This topic in your channel is really enjoyable and educative one for all of us. Machinery of government, educated youths and all section of businessman comes under this ideology if we want to make the dream into reality. May Almighty lead our nation into prosperity.

[@Rd-bi7vr]

Population is a burden not a boon beyond a point . That said India does not need to be high income as this is a western construct . Culturally Indians do not need materialism like the west does . India can do well and be happy and content if it reaches 20k usd per capita . US has 65000 usd per capita but is plagued by crime and mass shooters and they have big political differences to add. Indians need to see what works locally and not judge with a western measure .

[@pbbaroi7434]

Equal opportunity, education and innovation can only take us to higher income group. There has be peace and no political turmoils .

[@vidhanrana]

41:24 the moment the guest started praising the Modi govt and said negatively about the UPA immediately Karan cuts him because he has a negative agenda. 41:35 Karan now accuses Modi of gaming the system. What a meltdown. 42:33 again the guest praises Modi govt and Karan's face has to be seen.

[@singharkirat]

Is this your take away.. why are you watching then😂 go indulge in Godi media

[@manikandangovindarajan8930]

Hello Sir Very very important discussion My worry is not middle income trap @ 7000 USD We are in Low Income Trap and it will be very difficult to even cross 2000 / 2500 Why we should worry about strucking in 7000 USD now The quantity of education is the first and fore most reason We just print degree certificates and distribute to all

[@johnramachandran]

Lovely, very important, productive and enlightening discussion 👌🏻👏🏻👏🏻👏🏻🙏🏻

[@annsree6972]

Indian policy makers are so slothful and poor risk takers , due to which we will be stuck not in the mid level, but at low income levels. Our transport policy is a top class elucidation of how employment to the poor is denied by the meaningless policies , by denying introduction of three wheelers for long periods of time , though population is growing fast and private ownership of vehicles are growing equally fast . In many cities 20000 licenses for autos were released after decades and the courts granted stay even on this . Even FSSAI does not permit the poor to start food outlets easily thereby reducing employment even further. The series of laws implemented since 2009 till 2024 are chocking the employment cycle even further .

[@malliyana201]

We all know this. No surprise. It’s not in our DNA to become a developed country. It’s like asking a cat to write python code. It will try and it will look cute for a while but ultimately people will just give up on it and go away.

[@jatinsingh4193]

Agreed

[@vineetshrivastava6249]

People who support 2% Nehruvian socialist economy all their life now have the audacity to talk about higher income😂

[@atherzaidi5871]

Nehru came to power After India was under 200 years of capitalist exploitation. East India Company was as capitalist as it gets. He had seen capitalist countries drop a two nuclear bombs on a Buddhist /shinto country. He had seen capitalist France raping Africa. It was natural that he favored socialism and USSR. He favored state sponsored dams, nuclear power plants, universities, medical college. India which had suffered famines for centuries, attained self sufficiency in food due to socialist policies. Do you expect that after getting rid of east India Company, after 200 years Nehru could have opened up India for FDI in 1947?

[@shirishpanwalkar]

A very insightful and enlightening interview 👍🙏

[@satishgupta5588]

Till one accepts the reality, no change is possible

[@tbraghavendran]

@@satishgupta5588 what is the reality sir?

[@stevenlai1199]

​@@tbraghavendranexactly

[@FXT130]

Everyone know the problems, what is the solution?

[@omarkhan3256]

Daron Acemoglu and James A. Robinson (the 2024 Noble economic prize winners) in their book ' The narrow corridor ' think that the basic problem with India is the Caste system.

[@ChandrasekharanKB-yp6uf]

We should walk the talk in all economic policies

[@DrZubairulIslam]

Salute to you Gill Sir for sharing great information.

[@writedeepblue]

This data will put things in perspective. Average monthly earning in India (2022): Self-employed: Rs 11,973 Regular salaried: Rs 19,010 Casual: Rs 8,267 Distribution of employment in India (2022): Self-employed: 55.8% Regular salaried: 21.5% Casual: 22.7% Source: ILO

[@satishgrover9137]

Thank you Karan Sir n Dr. Gill for a remarkable Debate 🙏

[@The_Viking970]

Great interview! I've been living in the U.S. for a while now, and I have friends back home in India. When we discuss the economy, I'm often surprised that many people believe we’re doing better economically than we actually are. Friends who own businesses talk about high growth and catching up to third place in global wealth, but when I ask them about their own businesses, they always say it's struggling. China managed to boost their economy by scrapping many regulations, but in India, starting a business is nearly impossible unless you're already wealthy. Access to capital is limited, finding highly skilled workers is a big challenge, and on top of that, regulations and corruption add even more pressure. All of this is compounded by market competition, where smaller businesses are buried by larger companies offering lower-quality products at cheaper prices.

[@AbhishekSingh-jf7co]

blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah.... not interested in a usa citizen views, who is even not an economist. Chinese work in china to make china big, and indians work in usa to make america big. Ab bas muh mat khulvao...

[@raviadireddy505]

Great interview by Kara with Dr gill

[@giffenman]

33.01 the government is borrowing because the private sector is not investing. Instead, the private sector prefers to buy government bonds which generates guaranteed rents.

[@matthewmarkus2495]

@@giffenman Pvt sector also leeches of off deficit spending programs like PLI.

[@shekharharsha1540]

Very insightful

[@agribiosys]

All talk in US dollar. Dollar parity may not be okay. Purchase parity will be fine. So, 15000 dollars may be equal to 80000 dollars per year. But inequalities remain a great worry

[@LionMajestic]

one of the best interviews

[@sreenivasa1234]

I teach kids cl 6-12. The education quality in rural areas is pathetic. A class 6 student can not read a sentence in Hindi properly forget English. Simple addition and subtraction of say three or four digits is difficult for them. What could have been a population dividend is surrounding religious places shouting obscene slogans or lynching people for what they eat. I'm not at all positive about the future of this country.

[@Neoluddism]

Sir from which state do you belong ?

[@Theackermans121]

You are experienced man sir . Do you feel the early indian leaders fail to develop india's education system and industry ?? It was never the main attention of indian politicans.

[@lalade3443]

Finally Karan is back in his element ❤❤❤ kudos Sirji

[@AdilKhan-gd2sc]

West grew at the expense of climate, and exploitation of colonies; the world is moving towards cyclical economies where "measured growth" is not the panacea. India has the potential to lead the world by improving human condition in balance with nature. For happiness and content, its not the absolute wealth that matters but its distribution-the discontent in the "high income countries reflects this.

[@azaamakram151]

@@AdilKhan-gd2sc well said

[@user-yb1fo6io6q]

Very good discussion

[@alphabetagamma12]

Thapar tried to be too clever by half but got some pushback which is good to see. Let’s also mention the courts that are dysfunctional - we need to ensure the courts at all levels are adequately staffed and provide relatively quick justice. Justice delayed is justice denied - if a case takes 10 or 20 years to resolve, then that’s just going to help people with deep pockets and lots of time. What’s the incentive for the police, the lawyers and the judges to provide a non corrupt quality service? I think that’s something we need to think about.

[@AbhishekSingh-jf7co]

usse pehle staff to pura bhar lo

[@SathyaswamyS]

Funny fact: Modernisation of police forces scheme existed since 1969 and the Bureau of Police Research and Development existed since 1970, but the Indian police forces are still primitive. On a serious note, India seriously needs to bring about massive reforms and modernisation of the police forces and build a force that a real emerging superpower must have. Looking at the current state of the police forces, bragging that India is a future superpower is so laughable. If the police are not fixed as fast as possible, movements to abolish the police may rise. Watch and learn from UAE police how a modern police force should be like.

[@vickielewis3848]

Highly informative and thought provoking discussion. Wide world view. Thank you from the West. 👋👱‍♀️🇺🇲

[@soosammajosephk7622]

What is the status of india in the hunger index ?

[@Biztalkcontrolcenter]

America has more hungry people now

[@Ty-op5xr]

@@BiztalkcontrolcenterUSA starving: 24 million India starving: 224 million

[@arisunkun]

Bhai Karan Thapar - do you ever see any good news ever for India???? You really do a lot work to find choicest speakers

[@adityabanerjee7145]

Karan said "People get impatient with poverty" - well India has been pretty patient with 60 years of Congress

[@Democratic_Lens]

Be rational and talk some sense

[@adityabanerjee7145]

@@Democratic_Lens I mean India has remained poor under Congress for 60 years with no ground level revolution and country's disintegration. The only disintegration happened was due to Islam - is that too difficult to understand

[@criticaldimension1615]

Karan latches on to anything negative about India or BJP or Hindu....karan ka guarantee 😂.... never seen anything that takes positive thoughts from Karan

[@ramanamurthy27]

Very disappointing. India’s economics freedom is less, false. Second suggestion for fiscal conservatism goes against his third suggestion to increase investment in education. Where does the money going to come? Govt borrowing reducing private borrowing is an outdated and wrong understanding of financial system.

[@atherzaidi5871]

Inheritance tax, I live in Germany. My boss got a house from his late mother. Had to pay 25% of the market value of the house as tax. He had to take out a loan to pay the tax. In return there is no tuition fee at german university, health care and public transport is awesome. In India inheritance tax is a must on inheritance of more than 10 crore. If Narayan murtis daughter gets Infosys after his death, government should get 25% of Infosys. If shahrukh khans son gets 4000 crore after his death government should get 1000 crores.

[@khuzaimahaji5706]

Future of India and all countries is going to largely depend on how deeply the country gets impacted by climate change and how well it tackles it.

[@PremdasDutta-iw7nw]

Unless population of hindi speakers rural women are education there is no hope.alongside public health facility to rural people.

[@deccanheart]

Yes. We Can! When our GDP is $10T, Adani and Ambani will be worth $3T, the top 10% with $6T, and the rest $1T

[@mahakaalvonjuggernaut420]

Better than Gandhi, Vadra and Congress with INDI friends worth $9T

[@MukeshLamba-i1t]

जय-जय सविंधान जय-जय भारत जय-जय कांग्रेस

[@SarcasticSaar]

💩💩💩

[@raghvendrarao3182]

First we need to bring population control Ban open defication, plastic use and garbage disposall. We have to protect sacred rivers. India will never develop. Not in this century. We so not have a selfless leader like Lee kuan of Singapore

[@sasikumart6693]

Just a common sense question, is it possible for the majority of the world population to reach High Income levels? (India represents one fifth of humanity). In order to reach High Income levels, you have to consume a lot of raw materials and energy. The point is: is there enough raw materials and energy for so many of the world population to reach those levels? The economists think only of growth but then the impact on the life and survival of humanity is never considered. Rather we should aim at an egalitarian way of life.

[@abhaykher9703]

It's said Common Sense is the Rarest Sense ..

[@stallionspirit9317]

wont be too difficult..as we were the richest civilization for 1000s of years...will do it again

[@atherzaidi5871]

Yes, economy never grows on simple living. If everybody I. US drives small car, lives in small home, buys only what he needs and stops using credit card and cooking at home US economy will collapse.

[@atherzaidi5871]

Who told u that India was richest civilization for thousands of years? Kings and priests were rich, people were poor. Temples were made of gold and women did not even have blouses. Education was illegal for 90% population. There was death punishment of scheduled castes for entering temples let alone study there.

[@stallionspirit9317]

@@samarthpandey683 am talking about thousands of years...not 1000 yeras...when we contributed to 40% wolrd GDP....research has been done...india was the most technologically advanced and knowledge based...which made us the richest...not just geography...duh!

[@mohidingundroo7717]

India has to grow its colonial past. Country is still run by civil servants , colonial vestiges, with no accountability & no transparency. And more & more are encouraged /incentivised to join countries elite civil service.

[@rosarosa6715]

Which we intuitively already know

[@SandeepSingh-uf2kh]

No trade coming India have a nice day India

[@abbaskassam]

You did not interrupt here. Mile you did with Prof Marandi. Shame on you.

[@Subh8081]

1. The high income minimum level of $15,000 per capita is liberal. $21,631 per capita is the lowest per capita GDP of a OECD country. 2. China is at $13,000, so can expect in under 20 years to crack the high income threshold of OECD. And they can do this because China is STILL the manufacturing capital of the World and also climbing value chain with high quality education and R&D even though they have started to lose the demographic dividend. India have a lot to learn from China. If not manufacturing, India can become the service industry capital of the world. 3. If we look at India's growth in the last 10 years, it will not even reach China's level today by 2047. It can expect to reach about $11,000 GDP per capita by then, that is if things do not worsen much from now and there is every chance for growth to slow than last 10 years. That's where the worry is even though India has 35 years more enjoying the demographic dividend. 4. A major worry is lack of reform due to ultra-populist Government, or an autocratic Government which hides its mistakes and does not do introspection and keep the country in internal turmoil for political gains. 5. Barring few mobile companies, India has been unable to get sufficient business leaving China. Business have gone to Vietnam, Philippines, Mexico, and even Bangladesh which is a bad omen for things to come. India should not lose investment to these countries.

[@matthewmarkus2495]

I mean, at this point I'm expecting videos from the Print with titles like "Sky is apparently blue". This is the reason why everyone who can leave is leaving. Middle class are all sending their kids. And you are acting all surprised. smh.