Middle-income Trap a Tenuous Concept, India Won't Get Stuck in It, Will Be $55 Trillion Econ by 2047

[@rohittalwar5602]

our education system is completely destroyed: draining the savings of middle classes...parallel fees to coaching classes ...over population..unhealthy zero knowledge based schooling...

[@ij4674]

Education system has never been good to begin with, agree with other points.

[@uptownautomations661]

lol they are actually enablers to better economy. I would advice you read any book about micro or macro economics and I am sure you will change your perspective.

[@vncstudio]

Education needs a lot of improvement. It seems it has not improved much in the past 30 years. Same exam oriented memorization and absence of creative thinking to foster innovation. Students survive and sometimes excel inspite of the education system.

[@abhi4biotech]

Some people don’t care about how precise they can be but how aligned they can be with what state would like to hear

[@SDFNI3894YR]

he has his logic in place. and 55$ is realization provide we dont ddont keep fighting amongst eachother.

[@manut1349]

India will not get stuck in middle income trap because we are stuck in low-income trap.

[@Lh34492]

😂😂😂

[@stallionspirit1576]

increasing per capita income 2.5x times..in 10yrs...is gettign stuck?..lol

[@nick-l4o2z]

​@@stallionspirit1576they r pretending to be blind 😂

[@71samrath]

@@stallionspirit1576yes. Especially when inflation is also taken in account

[@后宫后]

🤣

[@musakam]

You don't know that over 25% of African countries have higher per capita than India. Botswana is $ 6.708, Equatorial Guinea is $ 5.453, and many others.

[@nomulahemanth]

Botswana had diamons, E Guinea had oil, Libya Had oil, While Congi destroyed India's Economy by socialism

[@Modiyogimodiyogimodi]

This interview is a clear example of the intellectual depth in public intellectuals that is dying a slow death in India. Far from a balanced view point, the book will only be worse.

[@nomulahemanth]

CRY, Then why couldn't 60 Years of Intelligent Intellectuals couldn't develop India and India's Per capita doubled under Modi from $ 1300 USDs to $ 2800+ USD in 2024

[@Modiyogimodiyogimodi]

​@@nomulahemanth CRY, your argument is infact one of the reasons. Go read some books.

[@writedeepblue]

But India is right now in the low-income category. The question should be - will India be able to move to the middle-income category first? Average monthly income in India (2022; nominal): Self-employed: Rs 11,973 Regular salaried: Rs 19,010 Casual: Rs 8,267 Distribution of employment in India (2022): Self-employed: 55.8% Regular salaried: 21.5% Casual: 22.7% Source: ILO

[@Dadasahab1234]

We were at top 10 years ago. 😅

[@dawner84]

The Pareto principle can also be used to explain middle-income. If you cannot rank among the top 20% of the world's advanced productivity, then you cannot earn high profits from middle/low income countrys and can only work as developed countrie's sweatshopsand with low profits . The world's population is now 8 billion, which means there is only 1.6 billion(20%) room for developed(rich) population. Western countries (the United States, Europe, Japan, and South Korea) have 1 billion, China has 1.4 billion, and India has 1.4 billion. China + US already 1.6 billion , so that's why those country are fighting with China. China is replaceing them. India think u can done better than china if u guys are in this sitution? Politically, Using Western democracy. Inefficiency Externally, it is always want to challenging China and Pakistan. even start to challenging Canada. not stable. Internally lot of landlords, big capitalists and Muslims .Chaos, division. Economically cannot use China's cheap product/technology(ideological problem) to finish industrialization ,only can relies on Japanese, Korean and EU companies with expensive price. Service industry are actully serves the West. So my view is India only will be a middle incoming country finally,India's target is squeeze the middle income share with EU/Japan/South Korea. Or Replace US or China for final goal. So which share India want to take over and How? The Pacific Ocean(world) is big enough to contain China and the United States, But Asia(world) is small not enough to contain China and India at same time.

[@rajeev7898]

We will continue to artifically inflate our GDP by making more and more Vande Bharat Trains,Bullet Trains ,High Value Infrastuctre which common public does not have access to. High Value Defence Products which do not result in public good.

[@ageless1003]

​​@@Dadasahab1234yes we were top in 1757 wen British won battle of plassey. India controlled 25% of world GDP !!!...Modi ruined everything. 😅

[@Saurabhyadav-yb2oo]

@@dawner84well explained🙏

[@counterpoint9260]

Chamchanomist Krishnamurthy sidestepped the uncomfortable question on faith-based discrimination as it inconveniences his boss Modi...

[@shanmukhaddepalli7975]

Maybe he doesn't want to support the agenda of interviewer

[@counterpoint9260]

@@shanmukhaddepalli7975 he just wants to dodge difficult questions that make him uncomfortable just like his Don Modi does

[@vemmanr]

There's a small factual problem in your argument Gobiji only does scripted question drama has always ran for life from interviews.

[@counterpoint9260]

@@vemmanr LOL..true

[@MangalGharami-u9s]

I am ashamed of such illiterate economist. India is now low income country, but he writes about middle income.

[@nick-l4o2z]

illetrate?

[@dipjyotimitra9840]

I'm ashamed of such illiterate commentators. India is a middle income country since long.

[@nick-l4o2z]

@@dipjyotimitra9840 is ut sarcasm

[@stevenlai1199]

​@dipjyotimitra9840jai hind Wil be next high income SUPERPOWER

[@AkinapelliHarshithees]

India is lower middle income, not low income country

[@salemganapathi5282]

He is trying to justify Modi era as if miracle has happened suddenly in 2014 . He is no better than Kangana

[@prabhatranjan362]

What r your qualifications

[@mdfaheemuddin2031]

​@@prabhatranjan362Dont be offended bud.. Its clearly visible.. He wants to promote and justify his book

[@prabhatranjan362]

@@mdfaheemuddin2031 I read Raghuraman Rajans Breaking the Mould, if he can have his hypothesis, so can the former CEA. We can't write off any one

[@stallionspirit1576]

moving from fragile five in 2013..to 3rd largest economy in 2027-28 is a miracle...hai na?...

[@nick-l4o2z]

​@@stallionspirit1576hum rahul key supporters hai ,isiliye hum nahi maneygey😢

[@abhi4biotech]

This is the reason being critical while planning is better than being optimistic while planning. 53-55 trillion dollars is too optimistic

[@mj1_5676]

I guess you were looking for the word "delusional" 😅😂.. not "too optimistic"..

[@abhi4biotech]

@@mj1_5676 thank you

[@KhanFamilyTTGH]

He sounds like one of those regime apologists who will be blaming Nehru in 2047 when India’s “developed country” dreams are shattered - before declaring that we are developed anyways.

[@dipjyotimitra9840]

You seem to the person who can't accept that India can become a developed nation by 2047 or you'll redefine developed status by incorporating your own definition.

[@KhanFamilyTTGH]

@@dipjyotimitra9840 There was a time when politicians promised India will be a developed country by 2020. So count me as cynical when I see such promises made. Our problems are structural, we relish in making Hindus and Muslims hate each other and fight over temples and mosques. History tells us, no such country succeeds. When Singapore became independent, its leaders forced Chinese and Malay and Tamil minorities to share apartment complexes - no “veg only” buildings and that crap. That’s at the heart of a nation’s drive to succeed. Read up a little. Banning beef and demolishing mosques to appease the majority doesn’t make the country DeVeLoPed. And when half of Indians are still living in favelas in 2047, remember: it was all Nehru’s fault. Happy Sunday!

[@rishabhjha2561]

You need to reform your religion first then try to make any argument ​@@KhanFamilyTTGH

[@nobufrancis685]

Why did you interview this guy. He is incompetent and whatever he says is B S.

[@ageless1003]

Yes, even I am wondering the same. He just doesn't talk about realities of India he just talks about basic maths.

[@prabhatranjan362]

Says who 😂😂😂

[@savijun]

This so-called incompetent guy is the chief economist of the IMF. What are your credentials?

[@dipjyotimitra9840]

He's employed as country chief by IMF. Are you insinuating that western world's bank IMF is incompetent?

[@HsenagNarawseramap]

He was chief economic advisor for fastest growing large economy in the past few years. What’s your credo?

[@deception6666]

He might be smoking some good stuff ... 55 trillion usd 😂

[@niteshsingh9158]

and he's Former Chief Economic Advisor to Modi

[@dipjyotimitra9840]

And he's employed by western based IMF. So, are you saying entire west is smoking good stuff? That might be true, btw

[@surajjohn3679]

@@dipjyotimitra9840..lol stop spreading misinformation..he’s India’s executive director to the IMF which means he was appointed to the post by the Modi Government.

[@stevenlai1199]

Bharat Mata Ki Jai ​@@dipjyotimitra9840

[@HsenagNarawseramap]

@@surajjohn3679look up what he does at University of Chicago. While you are it , look up what university of Chicago has contributed to economics

[@sabyasachisenapati3619]

This guy even looks like Sambit Patra..😅😅

[@dipjyotimitra9840]

And is employed by the reputed IMF. Sambit won election. That's a compliment for each other.

[@starship_01]

USA is 21 trillion right now. India is 4 trillion today. 55 trillion in 2047, what a joke. These jokers aimed at 5 trillion in 2019, it’s 2024 now 😂😂😂. Get the low hanging fruit at least, then talk about 2047. Seriously, To get a job in Modi government, you don’t need education. You need to be have some stamp from foreign, be mediocre and be loud enough to shout propaganda .

[@savijun]

Compounding is the 8th wonder of the world- Einstein. He is making an argument on sustaining the high growth rates of 7-10% which will result in the magic of compounding which will result in GDP reaching the levels of $10s of trillions. If we were having this argument even 10-20 years back, we would similarly be astonished at prediction of India becoming a $5T economy. But it is right now- because of compounding. Thats exactly how China did it (by 8-10% compounding over 20 years). If India does not get into socialist and other traps, continue to evolve our economy, we should achieve it as well. Its not a guarantee of course, its not inevitable, but doable with the right policies and incentives.

[@dipjyotimitra9840]

Einstein, India targeted 5 trillion by 2023. Not 2019. And if you learn a bit of maths you'll know that compounding at high growth rates can take you to great heights over a long period of time.

[@stevenlai1199]

Gaddar

[@stevenlai1199]

​@dipjyotimitra9840 Bharat Mata Ki Jai

[@Fekuchand_]

😂🎉🎉🎉

[@Gaurav4u22]

No offence, but the economist does not sound like a person of very good integrity!!

[@999vincy]

absolutely spot on

[@secretvision844]

He is a paid entity i

[@Kalyani-c9b]

When youth jobless about 50% in their earning and skill improvement phase, expect great narratives to grow great of few corporates and less on ground reality. Being positive along with on ground realities otherwise it becomes dreams rather than reality. Providing job opportunities to all itself improve economic growth of country that itself becomes both production and consumption increase indicates reality of economy

[@anilbharat]

India shouldn't be compared to the U.S. or other developed Western countries, nor to China. A fair comparison would be with countries like Brazil. The $55 trillion figure is misleading. I'm concerned that India's exports are limited to a few agricultural products, while it relies heavily on imported technologies, making it more of a consumer rather than an innovation hub!

[@akbarali-fh4rb]

Only few oligarchs will become more rich and then average out their income on total population and consider that country and its people have become rich? Stupid argument. Indian is not even in Middle income. India is in lower middle income group.

[@ageless1003]

Brother thats the plan from start. 😅

[@dipjyotimitra9840]

Even south Korea, Japan had oligarchs who became more rich than the rest. Even US had their Rothschild. Oligarchy is part & parcel of growth. You need capital accumulation for risky investments. But govt should also tax them & keep investing on basic goods for the population.

[@ageless1003]

@@dipjyotimitra9840 oligarchy is part and parcel of Growth. Stupidity has no bounds !! 🤭

[@akbarali-fh4rb]

@@dipjyotimitra9840 You raised some interesting facts but I believe you should also pay attention to the background of the rise of those oligarchs. South Korea govt created Hyundai, Samsung etc during revolution and then stable companies handed over to private sector and then those stable companies created wealth. Japanese companies were already present before WW2 and then those rose to more power after WW2. US created conditions of free market and take a look that US even destroyed Standard oil and created into many other oil companies like chevron ets. India is not in a place to gamble especially when govt also not taxing these companies. India is a very diverse country and creating false uniformity will only create problems. India is a uniformity in diversity, not a diversity in uniformity.

[@mayurkanth6987]

This guy is CONFUSED as well.

[@cledwynfernandes9493]

When I visit India from the West, it feels like I have time-traveled to the past. 😃

[@uptownautomations661]

I would presume in a good way and we don’t really have many modern mental health(loneliness,depression,anxiety)or physical health problems(obesity,cancer,diabetes,heart attack) or savings problems , pollution problems compared to the west. Sure there could be others but at least we don’t have the modern ones.

[@KS-dv7wb]

What a stupid man, former CEA of India, no wonder we are in such grinding poverty. Ask the poor man in the street, what trap he is in?

[@dipjyotimitra9840]

You can also ask the millions of homeless in US the same question. If only you had his education qualification.

[@uptownautomations661]

He works for world bank dude. There are poor and homeless people in USA TOO 12% of them.

[@Anthropocene81]

Bangladesh and India have almost the same per capita income. That’s shameful.

[@dipjyotimitra9840]

They grew really well. But they started falling behind.

[@josephchettupuzha8689]

In per capita income , we are at 18% of the world average.

[@Dadasahab1234]

Ten years ago, we were on top.😅

[@stallionspirit9317]

per capita income of china was also low...in 2005...these are transint numbers ..for growing economies..duh!

[@bimalmitra3137]

Thanks

[@muhammadaquil2256]

Is he an economist or is a athlète preparing for next olympic ! Jumping from 5 trillion economy to 55 trillion in less than 20 years is an athleletic jump 😅

[@uptownautomations661]

Well at a compounded rate of 12-13% , it is very athletic but possible.

[@muhammadaquil2256]

@uptownautomations661 30% growth 20 years.

[@iamwham]

Let’s be real. The changes in the society are not happening fast enough for India to catch up to the future.

[@uptownautomations661]

There is no need to change the society for economy . Both are very different things, India was the richest country (including Pakistan and Bangladesh) for almost all of the history. I don’t think there is any problem with our society , we just became capitalist economy in 1991, give it some time and we will become number 1 before you die.

[@klerss]

These type of people employed by the Modi Govt who blurt out absurd unrealistic figures and a distant future timeline as a lollipop for the common man

[@dhruvjain92]

This man has no credibility left after god knows what he licked when he was the CEA

[@brijesh7]

Remove top 10% earners, rest for 90 % per capita is at level of African countries....

[@musakam]

You don't know that over 45% of African countries have higher per capita than India. Botswana is $ 6.708, Equatorial Guinea is $ 5.453, and many others.

[@dipjyotimitra9840]

Remove top 1% of any developed nation, It's India.

[@yahiyafirdous]

55 trillion in year 2047😂😂 It looks like joke. If it happens , it is very good newa for Indians.

[@ageless1003]

It will never happen. All BJP guys do is speak rubbish and then justify it with foolish reasoning. It's no wonder they couldn't complete any of their promises since 2014. They are nothing but crooks !

[@uptownautomations661]

You can open a calculator and do the math, don’t comment before doing the math. If you don’t understand the math maybe you should haven’t slept in your math classes.

[@salemganapathi5282]

To presume that no global economic shocks like one we had in 2008 and local shocks is optimism to the core

[@abcxyz1881]

Is 3+2 =5. No, it is 4. 2+3=5; No, it is 6. What I need is a seat.

[@balachandrang76]

He is also responsible to great extent for the mess we are in now.

[@nick-l4o2z]

what was ur percapita from 1947 to 2014?

[@dipjyotimitra9840]

He saved us from fragile 5

[@nick-l4o2z]

@@dipjyotimitra9840 we will not believe because we r the disciple of rahul

[@mayurkanth6987]

Saste Nashe...... He is Modi's tattu. Of course propaganda is in his blood.

[@abhilash4479]

Kudos to both, even though they ideologically disagree with each other, didn't let that come between healthy intellectual discussion❤😊

[@DEBASHISHSEN-p9b]

Sir, we really need to have a discussion on "NO INCOME TO SOME INCOME" as reports suggest that the last assets of every indian households, which is GOLD jewellery but not biscuits or coins are being used for taking loans. Which itself suggests that there is severe income deficiency in the middle to lower middle income group.

[@vinayakdamodar980]

What will be the value of $1 in 2047 ? What if rupee depreciates by 52% as it has done for the last 20 yrs ? Indian Govt *does not* release GDP data in dollars , it is in rupees . What conversion rate will you use to convert to $Dollars ? One must always *be precise* when talking about GDP . Our current REAL GDP adjusted for inflation is around $3.5 Trillion . Even if we grow at 8 percent consistently over the next 20 yrs that is gives us $20 Trillion (assuming constant rupee value). That is just simple math. To get to $55 Trillion in 23 yrs we need to grow at 13 % per annum . We can get there with 7-8% growth and 6-5% inflation .

[@akgoatfarms1688]

Modiist couldn't prove his point and was only engaged in protecting his theory based on bias Karan futile to interview such oddists

[@dramaworld5987]

That means india will be 110 trillion dollars economy by 2053, Doubling never stops 😂

[@oniongingertomato2216]

Kuch bhi bol do bhai, janta bewakoof hai... Maan jayegi🤡🤡🤡🤡

[@poorchef1895]

I believe future is brighter

[@AM-gb7rp]

😂😂

[@stallionspirit9317]

bewakoof hai...issiliye 3rd largest economy..banne jaa rahey hain..lol

[@rohittalwar5602]

we dont make global quality products like german cars american cloud israeli cybersecurity no planes trains are made in lndia when it comes to the key high tech electronics software etc

[@rajeshsookram3038]

Great news for India. It is possible because in Manmohan Singh 10 year term India 's economy tripled in size. If this is replicated in the coming two decades it is possible.

[@rrdutta2136]

2047: 23 years away: Lets assume India's GDP doubles in every 8 years (actual will be around 10 years). So you have a chance of doubling 3 times. Hence current 5T doubles to 10T in 2032, then doubles to 20T in 2040 and then doubles to 40T in 2048. Still falls short of 15T. The guest is an economist, I think he knows better. My guess, he might have created this hype for his book to be sold. When 800 million people are getting free ration, you need a very dynamic leader in India who can create a huge manufacturing base and generate employment income for these 800 million, then India can grow at 12% a year and thereby double the GDP in every 6 years.

[@dipjyotimitra9840]

It's not like you have to give employment first and THEN economy will grow. Employment IS growth. GDP is calculated by 3 ways: consumption, production or income. I agree we need to give employment to these 800 millions or increase their income. And doing is equal to increasing growth.

[@ageless1003]

Lol...whenever he gets stuck. He just straightaway disagrees. Is he even literate ?😅

[@dipjyotimitra9840]

He's appointed by IMF as country head. So, probably you need to prove your own literacy.

[@titaboria]

I don't know what everyone is smoking. Please take an excel spreadsheet. Take Thailand's per- capita income of approx USD 7K. Compound it by just 2.5%! India, with a current per-capita income of USD 2.9k, compounding at 7% will not catch up to Thailand even by 2050. Thailand is at the lower end of Middle Income i.e. India will remain a low-income country well after the 100th year of Independence.

[@dipjyotimitra9840]

Hey WhatsApp graduate, unfortunately I did the calculation. You are wrong. India at 7 does surpass Thailand at 2.5 What a joke are you 😂

[@uptownautomations661]

7% ie excluding inflation , add inflation at 4-5% . Do the same for Thailand’s inflation . Then do the spreadsheet and comment again .

[@rohittalwar5602]

can govt of lndia pass a law : capital punishment for corruption bribery kickbacks?

[@sdasgupta1950]

If the middle income range is wide then ofcourse it will be a trap, notwithstanding the fact the absolute income is still going up. Being middle income is still a great achievement, so let's not try hard to find something negative about this.

[@abhishek_083]

What a wacko, for achieving 55 trillion we have to grow at 13% annually. And the highest this government was able to achieve was 8.2% for few quarters which was also an inflated figure.

[@poorchef1895]

Even if we manage to achieve half of what he says, we'll be a lot better for us than what it is today.

[@johnnybravo19871]

55 trillion sounds good. But he is expecting a nominal GDP growth of 12% for next 20 years. The problem is that India's nominal GDP growth in rupee terms (in dollar terms is even lower) in 2023-24 was 9.6%. And it fell from 14% from the year before. So where is he getting his 12% from?

[@uptownautomations661]

It includes inflation. The figures you mentioned are real growth which means they adjust it for inflation. But when you add inflation at 4-5% the growth is even higher at 12-13%

[@johnnybravo19871]

​@@uptownautomations661 No, real GDP growth last year was 8.2%. Based on current year's known data, nominal GDP till half year is 8.5% and real GDP was around 6% for for the half year

[@rohittalwar5602]

our cities are urban slum clusters congested roads high air pollution poor quality drinking water ....

[@ambarishupadhyay921]

Karan’s overt bias is absolutely fun AND painful to watch, all at the same time 😂😅😂😅😂

[@counterpoint9260]

its Krishamurthy who is biased not Karan who asks the right no BS questions

[@dipjyotimitra9840]

​@@counterpoint9260Both have their own biases. Just like you have your own. Krishna is the country head of IMF. The same institution entire west reveres. So tell me, do you respect the west.?

[@ChiefIntel]

By 2047 the standards of GDP per capita would have gone up and India will be stuck then too.

[@ageless1003]

He is just being all over the place. He is just not being articulate enough. 😅...just pleasing his masters. 😂

[@dipjyotimitra9840]

You seem to be pleasing your own master. You can't argue on points.

[@rupeshkasugai]

Typical diplomat talking style of being sweet and wearing a meaningless smile saying things everything is perfect, while doing those power games in behind…can’t buy a word THIS guy says!

[@k6wolf]

someone should know basic, for india to be a 55 trillion economy in 23, years, India has to grow at average of 11% annually, which it has never done.

[@Babu-wy7nz]

Fantastic interview, worth watching. I am sure his research and predictions are interesting. Let us hope policy makers will do good job.

[@indiatoday462]

Krishnamurthy sounds absolutely like a BJP spokesperson, and nothing like an economist, which he actually he is. I wonder why😂😂

[@dipjyotimitra9840]

He's more educated than you. He's the present country head at IMF. The same IMF considered to be the golden star institution of the western world.

[@ambarishupadhyay921]

22:00 So according to Mr Thapar, all 108 middle income economies have gender-based and faith-based biases! Karan genuinely needs to stop smoking funny things! 😂😂😅😂😅

[@JabAnsari]

14.5 % of growth needed every year to reach India to 53 Trillion dollar in next 22 years.. It can be only done on papers given the quality of Infrastructure india is creating it's sound very grim.

[@Indian23772]

Such an incompetent person, ask him what is 2+2 he might answer it as 5

[@matthewmarkus2495]

55 TRILLION........ I, have nothing to say.... Wow🙄

[@uptownautomations661]

Well don’t say it . Watch it.

[@Aditya-n6s4t]

By all means india will become the second largest economy in 2047 by the prediction of imf ❤

[@rajenlama.6850]

Jai Hind sir. The rate of productivity and stable government are the key factors in functioning the smooth economy of our nation. The middle- income trap a tenuous concept is well illustrated in your channel and can be said an eye opening aspect to the people of India and to the existing government of India.

[@rohittalwar5602]

But who will clean corruption bribery kickbacks hypocrisy below quality products and services jugaad chalta hai....we are farcftom the transition

[@shekharharsha1540]

Underestimating corruption and black money, which is widening gap of high, muddle and low income group.

[@lifeofkarthi]

Excellent interview. Your insight about lower currency depreciation going forward as a distinct possibility, is really helpful. While, this is leaning towards the 'best case scenario', it is not a crime to be reasonably optimistic. Very well explained with the 'rule of 72' and the impact of 'interest rate differentials'. People underestimate the power of compounding. As you have indicated, most forecasters are just extrapolating the past.

[@Brisamars-q1c]

I only listen to Jayant Bandhari and he is so right about India.

[@atulyasworld2799]

No some industrialists are definitely going to become High Income net worth, not people of India

[@rakeshvats9065]

Karan, please interview Washington post writer who wrote a piece on Indians official involvement in targeting and killing its citizen on its soil by using extra judicial measures and with the help of criminal gang. AS name also taken in this regard and it’s said , that Bishnoi has got his patronage and he can’t be called by any court in India for one more year , a clause activated by the AS giving protection to him , and that’s why he was moved to Gujarat from Tihar Jail in Delhi .

[@mrgz999]

Year 2047, why not 2025?

[@sandeepbhatia1193]

Same as giving 15lakh😂 hypothetical interview in hypothetical regime. Currently per Capita income is 2600/ doller not 3500/ doller.

[@dipjyotimitra9840]

Because he's not growing paddy that you can result in a year. India under Nehru grew at "Hindu growth rate" (Hinduphobic language by the west) & India became 1/80th the per capita GDP of US by 2000. Unless you stop reading WhatsApp, you won't understand how backward India became from 1947 to 1991.

[@dipjyotimitra9840]

​@@sandeepbhatia1193Modi never said he'll give 15 lakh to everyone. Dare you to prove that. Otherwise, I don't think India will be a 55 T economy. But India will certainly be a rich nation. That's enough.

[@mrgz999]

@@dipjyotimitra9840No doubt, India was s rich country before the British and Mughals plunder. Divide and rule and division politics brought about the downfall of these so called indian Nationalists.. You are one of such nationalist.

[@sandeepbhatia1193]

@@dipjyotimitra9840 he will bring the money back from Swiss bank. Has it come? I think more has gone

[@chintansurana9017]

21:06 Nicely done Mr. Economist, taking on Mr journalist on bringing his ideological leanings into this conversation. 22:08 good to come back to your own book and not go on about some prior interview that Mr journalist held

[@gauravdas6741]

30 trillion is possible, 50 trillions seems near impossible but quick major reforms in agriculture, land, labour, tax, reducing corruption, increasing investment in education and healthcare as percentage of GDP may change the fortunes for india.

[@anupamverma7749]

The first question to ask him is who is responsible for tweaking data coming out of the govt. Every bit of data seems to be doctored or hidden thanks to weknowwho

[@sid1680]

Of course, India’s GDP can and will reach $55T by 2047. Only issue is that much of the GDP’s rise will have been possible by way of high inflation. High inflation and middle-income trap are two sides of the same coin. So the economy will reach $55T in spite of the middle-income trap coming about. Citing past data of east Asian countries is just not appropriate. First, their work ethic is very different to ours. More importantly, the East Asian countries rode the globalization bus and were successful. We missed that bus even when it swung by India back in 1955, when Nobel economist Milton Friedman studied the Indian economy sitting in New Delhi for a whole month at the behest of the then Indian Govt. East Asia’s economic growth was primarily fueled by global trade and exports after WWII. It was a time of technological growth that made it to everyone’s home. Cars and Home appliances for cooking, air conditioning, entertainment, news, recording events for posterity, to name a few, were all things that were bought directly by consumers. Monetary expansion in those countries gradually and eventually followed the growth in economic activity to sustain it. Therefore inflation was kept in check in East Asian countries. We on the other hand have always been trying to fuel our economic growth with monetary expansion. Nothing can be further than the truth than the way in which our Govt in the last term went about spending money here and there without batting an eyelid. Didn’t this lead to high inflation? High inflation resulting from the use of monetary expansion to fuel economic growth is a science. Nobel economist Milton Friedman was awarded the Nobel prize for his work on the theory and science of monetary expansion. How much more stupid can we be? There are lots of other exceptions too to India’s economic fortunes. Our outrageously high population is a barrier to widespread uniform economic growth. The kind and amount of freebies close to 18% of our GDP is yet another barrier. Lack of people development is a gargantuan barrier too. Our level of love and respect for our own people is one more barrier yet. For whatever reason, our industries look at unorganized uneducated classes as necessary for keeping themselves profitable and, consequently, afloat par excellence. They and our governments, present and past, have always thought of our large population as assets (easily pushed labor on which to build profitable businesses). Unless we start to think of our uneducated and unorganized classes as also people who can (like us) not only get themselves educated, but also come up with innovative ideas and contribute to the nation as entrepreneurs, nothing is going to awaken the huge potential in India. It’s inane to build castles in the air without addressing the root cause of a dormant untapped potential. Which is why these advisors haven’t got the hang of economics yet. They’ve simply been throwing the math behind the economics. First it was $5T by 2024, then it was $10T by 2030, now after the 2024 elections it has been further fine tuned to $54T by 2047. Swallow their arguments and India will be drowned in massive inflation by then and an inequality the likes of which we have never seen! Mind you, I respect these advisors. But I am not convinced they’ve got the hang of economics yet. Economics is largely the study of human psychology / behavior in regard to how humans engage with one another when it comes to scarce resources. They are totally drowned in the mathematics of economics and economic growth. The proof is in the pudding. Can’t believe that the growth of 8% last year is still being bandied about as though it is a benchmark of note. In reality, that 8% was a bunch of high inflation masquerading as growth, wasn’t it? Would like these economic advisors to know that we also would like India to grow. There is not a single soul in India who doesn’t want economic growth. But that growth has to be palpable, first felt at the lowest level of society. Otherwise, playing with enormous GDP numbers and throwing them hither thither is like being in a state of pure delirium. It will happen only when the large population numbers of India turn themselves into a large market.

[@ishansinha1336]

well put

[@devshetty7465]

No wonder indian education system this kind of experts

[@sm9214]

His profile shows he had received a (PhD) in financial economics from University of Chicago Booth School of Business. You are saying Booth School produces only useless economics experts. Congrats to you brother.

[@mamamia8511]

Stop fooling..were not even middle income. Rural wages of 5k is a dream

[@dipjyotimitra9840]

We are a middle income nation. Lower middle income

[@stevenlai1199]

​@@dipjyotimitra9840Bharat Mata Ki Jai

[@SammeerSRaawat]

is this guy real?

[@vikastulsi]

basically he is saying Growth of nation has less to do with quality of life of citizens, instead its just a number game of inflation, depreciation and credit growth.. last 10 year GDP growth as I see it was fueled primarily by govt spending in infra. In this process we added 130 lakh crore to Central govt debt. basically 1 lakh rs per citizen. So how long can govt sustain this? data from next 5-7 years where private has to play it's part will put light on the questions.

[@balachandrang76]

He as an economic adviser was a big failure. Nothing he predicted had happened then & justied with evasive answers when asked rational questions. Please don't subscribe to these kind of economists. He is not sure of himself. 😅

[@mehr-sepehr]

How do you include geopolitical and global influences in your hypothesis on Indian economical growth ?

[@NagarajanVenkataraman-q7i]

Well, given the uniformly tardy rate of growth currently being registered by the cowbelt BIMARU states allied with Punjab and W Bengal and with no indication of any improvement in the near or distant future, which is bound to hold back severely the overall economic growth of the entire country, the forecast by this engineer-turned-economist that India can become an economic superpower with a 55 trillion dollar GDP in 2047 is at best a delusional dream. As the saying goes, if wishes were horses, beggars would ride!

[@VIDURRAJA]

Is the HUF with it's members considered as an individual PCI?. Can the actual individuals in the HUF add their incomes, & arrive at a individual HUF PCI? The point i want to make is that in the developed east & west, the economic unit is an individual, whereas in India the economic unit is a 4 + individuals family, so the PCI is that much higher as members in the family. By the way, the currency of Hungary - the Hungarian Forint, it's acronym is HUF also.

[@Rasomash]

The gdp is quoted in nominal terms and gdp growth in real terms. India’s real gdp growth rate is 6-7%. Nominal is around 10-11%. In theory the currency weakens by the inflation differential so when you convert back the GDP denominated in INR to USD then one comes back to real growth rate. However, if FII and/or FDI inflows are strong then currency may stay pretty stable (as it has been for quite some time). Hence a net 10% nominal growth rate at 7% real gdp is not impossible. 10% means double every 7 years. 21 years is 8 times. So 40T is not impossible. A net 12% will take us to 55T. Very difficult if not impossible.

[@okeng71487]

$55 Trillion? Meaning the Indian GDP will be more than the GDP of USA and China combined by 2047? 😅

[@anp4149]

13 crore people in India-as per data released by WB couple fo days ago- earn less than 2 dollars ie less tha 84 rupees per day. More than 80 cr people are dependent on free ration. Rest, I leave upto common sense.I feel pity, that how such men have gine on to become economists and no wonder, why current regime has no blueprint for future.

[@dipjyotimitra9840]

20%+ of Americans fall on their definition of poverty level. Millions of them are homeless & depend on food grant. WhatsApp graduate like you don't knowbthe reality but accuse others of being ignorant. He's the country head of IMF, stupid. He's someone you never can be

[@rsridhar4508]

This government has relentlessly been managing inflation and wants to keep it at 4%. Assuming a average inflation rate of 4%, he is talking of 8.5% real GDP growth over the next 23 years. This has not happened anywhere in the world and it's not possible with the legal system we have. A lot of reforms are needed to expect 8.5% growth for consistently 10 years. In my view expecting an average growth rate of 5.5% per annum for 23 years as the baseline is realistic

[@sumanbahuguna]

karan. please don't invite crackpot theorists.. also you've done shabby work with not asking in detail how it'll not take 75 yrs for even $20k per capita

[@dipjyotimitra9840]

And this crackpot theorist is appointed by IMF as the country head. So, probably you need to ask the famed global lender of the western world they are they incompetent.

[@sukhdevsohal5172]

The speaker anti farmer not an economist. The Indian state invested huge to build industrial base but failed to create worth in manufacturing. Only traders benefit. Cheap vegetables produced by farmers not helping them by middle men. Indian state is in a Bania trap. He is a neo Jagdish Bhagwati.

[@srisivaraman8063]

stop taking subsidies and improve productivity

[@sriwru]

these guys simply play with emotions without any solid backing. Learning some self motivation bs books and using it with economical terms.

[@sourjyoroy3393]

I am surprised he was let on the show. Good for Karan to listen to a contrary point of view. I generally come here for my daily dose of doom and gloom. I believed it was inconceivable for an economist on this channel to make a valid point on the farm subsidies. I feel the main area India is not paying enough attention to is a conspicuous decline in FDIs.

[@counterpoint9260]

it was good to expose his lies too..he is a known right wing chamchanomist..

[@aroundtheworld2990]

Good job bro Love you more

[@phoneisnotketchup]

i hate cider, i always try it to make sure i do still hate cider, and every time, i find that hate cider. same with you karan, same with you. you're no good.

[@thelakeman2538]

39:06 LMAO, this is way more optimistic than even APJ's India 2020 book we used to read back in our elementary school (obviously none of us ever comprehended it). I wanna smoke whatever is giving this guy so much misplaced optimism.

[@sid1680]

Adding some more. We so focus on the math around the economics that we fail to see the reality. More specifically, I’m very concerned when our economists and/or advisors not only bring inflation into their growth strategy, but also target it in a specific range. It should awaken every Indian, no matter the affiliations. Friedman and Hayek called Inflation a disease, so bad that we cannot prevent it from rearing its destructive head once it gets out of hand. First, I’ve yet to see economists in other parts of the world bring inflation into their growth strategy. There are visible reasons for it. Literally, no one has a handle, direct or indirect, on inflation. Humans are at the very source of it. It’s human psychology at work again. We all want more for what we sell. But we all try to buy what we want or need for much less. So there’s a balance. The balance remains for so long as the money supply is held constant. Given that no one has a handle on inflation, it’s then foolhardy to use inflation in our growth calculations. How can we? We can never pin it down to a number at any point in time. We learn of its lurking presence only in hindsight, using PAST data to know how much it was. That’s how far inflation is from our ability to know it in real time. So how can anyone then target inflation in a growth strategy? Secondly, targeting inflation between 4 and 6% is not just not done as explained, but plain bizarre. The Proof is in the pudding. There’s evidence from the recent past. Inflation in India was above 10% in 2022. RBI said it was at 7%. Yet, at the same time, the INR depreciated by ~ 10% against the USD even while the US stated their inflation was near double digits in 2022. Folks, We do not want to use math when it ought to be used. Suit yourself. We know exactly by how much groceries and a whole range of other daily commodities went up. As if this weren’t enough, a classic effect of high inflation also hit us by 2024. High unemployment! Hope we have been able to get the full grasp of what it is “not to have a handle on inflation, direct or indirect”. Folks, sadly we are in a time regime now when it will not be easy at all to curb the high inflation we espoused so unwisely. The US, an economic powerhouse in the 1970’s, had a disastrous time between 1979 and 1986, with FED rates touching highs of 14%. The then FED chair Volcker was probably the only individual who could get things under control by tightly controlling money supply and strongly advocating deficit reduction much to the detriment of President Reagan’s popularity numbers that were the lowest within a year and a half of his becoming president. It was to President Reagan’s credit though that he allowed Volcker a free hand. In our case, it’s not going to be easy at all, with so many visible as well as unforeseen challenges. Even so, we’ve got to strictly stick to time-tested and proven policy principles that avoid inflation as much as possible. Such as eliminating the deficit and keeping spending below revenue. There are ways to increase revenue in order to ensure we are able to spend for essential development, though, not the least of which is to increase tax rates further. Would let our economists and advisors think how. Taxation is not merely revenue generation, it’s a mechanism to guide us tax payers away from the things we have been doing for years together selfishly, but to our own collective detriment. The thing being referred to as something we have been doing for years together selfishly is perhaps the biggest barrier to our economic growth that we as a society has yet to accept unconditionally. It’s the elephant in the room. Yet we are not able to see it. It’s a result of I, me and mine. It’s driven farmers to their misery. It’s far removed from Capitalism founded on the principle of individual freedom from an equality of justice point of view, yet we think it is Capitalism. It’s a shared resource that can be owned, but not clung on to for speculation. Many individuals and organizations own it for speculation, depriving it to those who badly need it. It’s a shared resource. There’s only so much of it in our country. Neither money nor enterprise can help us churn out more of it. It’s as ancient as the beginning of time. Sorry, we can never achieve the economic growth we want if we do not set this straight. Other nations took care of this the first thing. They levy punitive taxes on those who cling on to it without putting it to use. This incentivizes them to dispose it of to those who have use for it rather than pay those punitive taxes. Thirdly, if we truly mean it when we say our aim is to increase per capita income, then how can we not see that, allowing an inflation level of 5% to sneak up on us behind the scenes defeats that very aim of ours? The vast majority do not even get wage increases of 5% to overcome such inflation. It’s like trying to climb up an escalator that is going down for the vast majority who are at the bottom of our pyramid. In fact, we leave the vast majority poorer than they were with these growth strategies every time. And each time, the inequality too rises even more! Lastly, suspect the reason these strategies involve high (indeed, above 1.5 to 2 is high) inflation targets is for the sole purpose of justifying using monetary expansion as the driver of India’s growth. There is no other growth driver around. Globalization is over. Trade with next door neighbors isn’t there either. BTW, the large GDP blocks are each trading the most with their next door neighbors. It’s natural. You buy from the stores near your house the most, don’t you? Amazon sends you stuff from the warehouses nearest your home, don’t they? India’s the exception. Not a wonder then that we are still trying to grow in vain. Given the science that high inflation inevitably follows monetary expansion used as the driver of growth, it’s about time we give up on the idea of using monetary expansion to grow an economy. Government spending can happen, but must be within the revenues generated. Understand we are at many a cross road: Only have 20 years to tap large youth potential, massive unemployment is at our doorsteps, inequality is extraordinarily high, and globalization is over as far as the developed world goes. Even so, it is in these circumstances we expect revolutionary ideas from our economists who have had the privilege of educating themselves at the world’s top business schools. Wish they start to think far ahead. They know the global south is looking toward us. Our next-door neighbors are also a possibility. Got to get over the old hangovers and move on. At the end of the day, need to look at the unity in diversity. Diversity is visible and should be appreciated. However, that which unites is invisible and endless. Just as endless as our growth potential.

[@sanjaysharma-mh4fh]

Income and wealth are neither permanent nor absolute. in G7 poverty is growing, Gini coefficient has gotten worse, diseases like scurvy, rickets are hitting home. Asia and global south will continue to grow as they have lot to catch up to. But in the end a lot will depend on internal political stability, demographics, size of a nation to wade through it.

[@santoshgharjale5797]

I can't believe we used to consider Thapar among top newsmen in the country for decades. His ideological leanings have clearly overtaken his professionalism and are showing in his interviewing skills. The guy was called to speak on his book but Karan focused only 1 chapter out of 27. Further kept interrupting his guest from answering whenever he thought KVS was going against what he wanted to hear and didn't even discuss other aspects of the book. What a fall!! And to those mocking KVSin the comments, he was part of the team which went against global norm of just printing notes and giving handouts during the pandemic which caused the super inflation in the west. And that despite the gyaanis in India pressuring the govt to spend like Western nations when Covid was a supply side shock and not demand side shock. They saved us from what could have been Pakistan or Turkey levels of inflation.

[@balachandrang76]

Hope we don't get into a lower income trap.. Our projected GDP growth rate is a fallacy. We are actually growing by 2% only if inflation is adjusted. Again, the north south divide is growing at an alarming rate. Peninsular India is growing faster than the BIMARU states at its own esteem and not because of central support.

[@venkataramannagarajan4631]

This engineer turned economist assumes a steady longterm growth at 8 % per annum and adds on to it another 4% from annual inflation rate and has arrived at an overall CAGR at 12%. On that basis, with the initial GDP in 2023 at 3.5 trillion USD, at CAGR at 12%, the GDP will double every 6 years and he has correctly calculated the projected GDP in 2047 at 55 trillion USD. Well, if he assumes the annual rate of inflation at 25% which is easily achievable if thr RBI cranks up its security printing presses at sufficient speed (and such high rate of inflation is quite commonplace in several countries in Africa and Latin America), even with zero growth, the over all CAGR would become 0 + 25 = 25 %. At this CAGR of 25 % with GDP in 2023 even at a lower figure of 3.0 trillion USD, at the end of 24 years in 2047 (the hundredth anniversary of India's independence), the GDP would double every 3 years and grow to the stupendous figure of 635 trillion dollars! Of course, this calculation assumes that the exchange rate between USD and INR remains constant at the current rate over the entire period of 24 years. As the saying goes, if wishes were horses, beggars would ride!

[@sm9214]

His profile shows he had received a (PhD) in financial economics from University of Chicago Booth School of Business. You are saying Booth School produces only useless economics experts. Great brother.