Ohio’s Redistricting Process Has Been a Roller Coaster l FiveThirtyEight

Back in 2018, Ohio voters thought they were doing a good thing by reforming redistricting in their state. It turns out they created a chaotic process that has left their congressional map as gerrymandered as ever.
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[@ChrisCapoccia]

There were plenty of people in Ohio very suspicious of the way the anti-gerrymandering ballot measure would work and what new ways people would game the system, but the hope was generally that it would be better than nothing. Best outcome would be for the court to eventually mandate a fair map by picking one of the many fair maps submitted to the court

[@theuglykwan]

That measure was deliberately crap to pre-empt a better one. I dunno if it is worse than no measure. Now they get to refresh every 4 years.

[@alaootoyin1781]

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[@sywu111]

@@PolarisAb alas, to stop Democrates-Republicans from aby form of gerrymandering is to create multi-mandates constituencies as it works in many European countries. Otherwise U. S. A. Demacrates will argue that dividing Salt Lake City is gerrymandering the same as leaving Indianapolis in ONE congressional district!😅😂 What's only common in both cases is? NOTHING but Democrates will to get as many district as possible, as it is proved by cases of Illinois, New York & Maryland states...

[@Ash-zm1vx]

Yeah and a functioning one

[@sacha9593]

Why not just mandating the use of some fixed algorithm in the (Ohio) constitution? Like the shortest splitline algorithm for example.

[@dipertag]

So let me get this straight here. The process goes like this. 1. Make a clearly awful map. 2. Let the map get struck down for being awful. 3. Repeat 1-2 until time runs out. 4. Use awful map as official map because (oopssie poopsie 🤷🏽‍♂️) time ran out. 5. Win seats because the map is awful. 6. Repeat 1-5 until you die while using your victories to claim voter mandate and consolidate power.

[@robertquiggleiv8696]

D: "It's your turn to pick dinner. What are we having?" R: "I choose dog shit." D: "Okay, obviously that's an unacceptable proposal, but you don't lose your turn to pick dinner. Choose again." R: "I choose cat shit." D: "Well, that proposal has the exact same problems as the first one and we both know it, but there is no rule saying you can''t do that, and it's almost dinner time, so cat shit it is!"

[@evangrover8414]

I live in district one. Our local elections are determined by the democratic primary. But our congressional rep is a republican because they cut the city in half to vote with huge chunks of rural Ohio. I live in America and my city doesn’t have a voice in national policy.

[@immaheadout4777]

Cincinnati I assume

[@IncoherentCentrist]

It’s so easy to draw a Safe D district in Cincinnati and it’s so frustrating that the GOP just won’t do it

[@immaheadout4777]

@@IncoherentCentrist Hamilton county should just be 1 district by itself.

[@kevinwoolley7960]

Republican voters in your city do

[@holdenennis]

The moral of the story is that you will always have these problems and other undemocratic injustices as long as you have single-member constituencies. We need the single transferable vote at the local, state, and federal level.

[@Ash-zm1vx]

Commissions, real ones, can make things better though

[@holdenennis]

@@PolarisAb there already is an act proposed in Congress to change it, the Fair Representation Act. Single-member districts now make it harder for a non-white person to win an election, because most of the districts are majority White. Alaska's system, while an improvement from what we have now, is still inferior to the STV, because you still have the problem of one Representative for everyone in a district. Everyone who did not vote for them, does not like them, or who has a different ideology from them, is shuttered out. Under proportional representation, almost everyone will have at least one legislator who they voted for, like, or share an ideology with. While Alaska is too underpopulated to feasibly have several representatives, the point still stands that its system is not better on a larger scale. Also, gerrymandering when there is proportional representation is almost impossible. And when I say proportional representation, I mean the real deal, like STV and party-list PR, not the half-assed mixed-member proportional and parallel voting stuff.

[@holdenennis]

@@Ash-zm1vx I live in Arizona, where a commission draws our electoral districts. While It does make things much better, it still does not solve the root problem, as I laid out in my initial comment and my response to PolarisAb.

[@Ash-zm1vx]

@@holdenennis yea, arizonas commission has had problems, but STV is difficult for states with a lot of seats, so you’d still do well to have some kind of boundaries

[@holdenennis]

@@Ash-zm1vxwhat are you talking about? STV, like most electoral systems, uses districts.

[@piepie3295]

this video is so silly but honestly I love it

[@stargobo]

We live in absurd times. The silliness highlights it wonderfully.

[@k5cents]

I applaud the commitment, Rakich

[@Megacooltommydee]

It slightly backfired this year; Republicans ended up losing two seats while Democrats gained a seat.

[@austinbowles7500]

How about the consequence for not passing a new district map on time is that every single member of the State Assembly be barred from running for re-election.

[@isaiahrodgers5077]

Now that would get their attention!

[@Marco-hl6gz]

the problem is that no member of the state assembly would vote for that

[@joedellinger9437]

Simple! Mandate that after one month all the members of the redistricting commission are locked together in a big room. One week after that, toilet facilities are replaced with buckets emptied once per day.

[@americanflyer4126]

I live in NH and the state legislature is trying to gerrymander our local and national maps (as they did 10 years ago). I was part of a grass-roots effort to come up with un-biased fair maps. Our work was completely transparent and open to anyone. We testified before the re-districting committee in every county. Over and over we begged the legislators to be fair and non-partisan. We posted on social media and local newspapers. And you know what? The redistricting committee just doesn't give a damn. They looked at us with stone faces. They couldn't care less. There is no sense of fairness or honor or duty to one's constituents. It's all about gaining an advantage at any cost. This isn't democracy. They know most people aren't paying attention and that there won't be a price to pay at the next election. So, so frustrating.

[@coreyeverett5500]

I sincerely hope the federal map for NH consists of two competitive districts. No politician should feel safe in their seat!

[@aagg436]

I live in OH, and I currently live in the 12th district, where Troy Balderson is. Now after this absolutely gerrymandered process, I live in none other than *Jim Jordan's* congressional district. I just wanted a fair map, but the politicians are whack.

[@betabenja]

they can just do that indefinitely.

[@rc8929]

And republicans will definitely do it.

[@mjsteele42]

@@rc8929 And so would Democrats. Stop pretending this is unique to one set of powermongers. Both parties are just playing the power game and doing whatever they can to increase their own.

[@iancampbell4394]

Why were the legislature and the redistricting commission not held in contempt?

[@markw.schumann297]

I suspect it's because the Ohio Supreme Court knows it can't enforce a contempt finding. It would be asking DeWine and his thug friends to put themselves in jail.

[@iancampbell4394]

@@markw.schumann297 Judges have broad authority to enforce matters that are before them. They could literally empower anyone in the state to drag him to the courthouse.

[@markw.schumann297]

@@iancampbell4394 Okay, that's interesting. Then IDK, contempt citations should definitely happen and they're not. And as a result, the state constitution is effectively nullified.

[@M-Soares]

I'll never understand how the US hasn't moved to at least a mixed-member proportional system yet.

[@ValkisCalmor]

Because the people who would have to sign the legislation to set that up know they couldn't win a fair race. Otherwise they wouldn't be doing this.

[@amendtheman]

Michigan has done this as well, to its own degrees. Would adore to see a similar video on ours I have yet to find one like this, so appreciate the good work you’re doing!

[@sidtheshuckle]

In New York and Maryland gerrymandering was not allowed but in so many red states they were allowed. GGS

[@vincelamb4063]

All this video needs is "Love Rollercoaster" by Ohio Players. Also, it's fitting that a theme park fan is its host. I miss seeing the Disney World posters behind Nathaniel in his video calls.

[@Mathamas]

"Ohio's redistricting is crazy!!!" Missouri: "Hold my beer"

[@jordanwhitney-wei3987]

Our "state amphibian" is apparently the Spotted Salamander. So all this makes sense I guess?

[@PremierCCGuyMMXVI]

Lol watch redistricting not be over by Election Day

[@bosserman444]

The same thing happened in VA. 30 years ago the parties could work together, not today.

[@JusdoinstuF]

can you explain why they refused or couldn't make a new map without votes? this needs further explanation.

[@shawnsg]

It's a 3 minute snippet. Go look it up.

[@JusdoinstuF]

@@shawnsg look up where?

[@ChrisCapoccia]

Republican strategy is to keep pushing against the court because you have nothing to lose

[@joeymac4302]

My understanding is that the backup commission is basically the gov, lt. Gov, minority and majority leaders, and a smattering of other politicians. This means the same people pretty much designed both sets of maps, with minimal minority support, even though the majority gets about 55% of the vote. For all intents and purposes, it's a sham democracy, which is mostly true to the founders intentions.

[@ScottCleve33]

At the end of the day the map probably fairly represents the people in the region they're in. The problem is that the population is so skewed by the high population in the big cites that to make it fair they need to combine rural red regions in with the blue urban regions to properly represent the population. So what's fair. Having a highly populated region that doesn't have the proper ratio of districts or a low populated region represented by someone that doesn't represent the region?

[@markkajc]

i kinda love how americans dont see that the issue is single member districts as a concept. Istead of reforming the system they try and polish a turd until it looks somewhat maybe edible

[@eaglestdogg]

It's simply not possible. A constitutional amendment would be required and we couldn't even muster the votes to constitutionally grant women equal rights to men, let alone changing how our government is set up.

[@bootmii98]

@@PolarisAb If the top N candidates all get seats wouldn't black voters get to elect someone?

[@bird-war]

Because they really aren't, especially when it comes to having more than 2 parties. Yes, most do it with seats set aside for proportional representation (South Africa, Mexico, Germany) There are perfectly healthy multi-party democracies that don't (UK, Canada, Australia)

[@DavidStevensMD]

Honestly rude to disrespect Cedar Point like that...

[@tituswu691]

no mention of the state legislative maps? ppl need to stop caring just about Congress or national level politics

[@typo4859]

Can confirm cedar point goes hard

[@VictorAntares]

Nathaniel man..infotainment

[@curtiswfranks]

It has been a grievous violation of Ohio's constitution and the will of the people. The redistricting commission should be locked up. The history of the state legislative redistricting maps is even worse.

[@poohandtiggervideosinc6163]

Tim Ryan for Senate! Keep the radical right out of Ohio’s Congressional delegation!

[@HoomerbirdG2]

I love Ohio! Moved here from south-side Chicago couldn’t be more happy I did. Conservatives are a minority back home

[@ScottCleve33]

The problem is that Ohio, regionally, is about 96% conservative. Population wise it's about 55% conservative. So when they draw the maps how do they divide it? Do they make 98% of the seats in conservative territory and not have the 45% of leftists be represented or do they make 45% of the seas leftist regions by combining urban regions like Cleveland in with rural areas? The problem is nobody can clearly define what "fair" is. If I live in a highly rural region that's very conservative I don't like the idea that I'm being combined in with an urban district that isn't fairly representing me.

[@mjsteele42]

​@@ScottCleve33 I've lived in Ohio my entire life. And I disagree with you. I'd argue well over 50% of Ohioans are neither conservative nor leftists. They're pragmatic and practical. The typical Ohioan who votes for Democrats isn't as much liberal/progressive as they are union people. They generally couldn't care less about the social aspect of the Democratic Party. They're voting for economic reasons. As for "fair," I tend to consider what people mean when they complain about its lack. Whenever you hear someone whine that something "isn't fair," they almost always mean "I didn't get what I wanted."

[@ScottCleve33]

@@mjsteele42 Ohio's changing. It leans far mor to the right than it does to the left and the union influence isn't what it once was. Gun rights, abortion and other policies we are much more conservative. The suburban and rural voter now exceed the highly populated urban votes.

[@jtlbz]

I'm from Ohio and it makes me sick I live in the 6th district this has turned into a Republican gerrymandered wasteland that makes me sick.

[@mjsteele42]

And the 9th district has been a Democrat gerrymander forever. Quit crying.

[@genericyoutubeaccount579]

The Ohio map is proof that you don't need to draw salamanders to gerrymander. The 2010 Ohio map was visually disgusting. There at least 3 blatant salamanders on the map. The most atrocious was the 9th district which wasn't even contiguous. In 2020, the Republicans cut out all the salamanders. They drew a very blocky map that looks visually pleasing. And yet, this map gives them an even greater advantage than the 2010 map. Compare the new California map to the new Ohio map. Both maps give about the same advantage, however, the California map has several downright disgusting districts that include parts of over 5 different counties. The truth is that Republican don't actually have to draw long, skinny districts to pack democrats in with each other. Democrats have voluntarily concentrated themselves into large cities. That makes it really easy to draw D +60 districts. You just draw a line around the city. Republican voters are much more spread out and hence why democrats have to draw uglier districts.

[@Gumby703]

What about Illinois ??

[@PremierCCGuyMMXVI]

What about Florida ??

[@HarryIsAwesome18]

What about Massachusetts?

[@PremierCCGuyMMXVI]

@@HarryIsAwesome18 how is Massachusetts a gerrymander?

[@PremierCCGuyMMXVI]

@@PolarisAb I would even say AZ has a slight bias in favor of the GOP but yes I completely agree although idk about MA. It’s hard to get a GOP district out of MA as democratic votes are spread out across Massachusetts

[@joeymac4302]

​@@PolarisAb That's a fun number. It's a 3 to 1 ratio in terms of actually gerrymandered states, so anybody saying "both sides do it" is ignoring the implications that one side does it way more. When you figure that of the top gerrymandered states, estimates show about a 5 to one ratio for seat advantage from those gerrymandered seats, it becomes more clear how skewed the drawn advantage is. Gerrymandering is bad no matter who does it, but it's important to remember who gets the main advantage from the practice, and to understand how that skews the politics that result from a given congress. Long story short, all Republican majorities in congress since 2010 have been illegitimate, because they did not pass the threshold by which they had given themselves a systemic advantage. We're still stuck with those politics, but at it's core, this is what undermines our democratic institutions.

[@williamerazo3921]

Don’t like my new district. It has nothing regional or common with the farm belt south of our county all the way to Indiana. Like my district always been a Dem

[@gabrieliacoboni6951]

The efficiency gap is a metric that has been criticized by many redistricting analysts. We see sites like 538 using it and courts relying on it but it is no better a metric than simple vote totals relative to the 2020 election.

[@Patmorgan235Us]

it's by no means a perfect measure but a large efficiency gap probably means a map has been manipulated to the point it's unfair.

[@youcantspelldum_f____witho6246]

Easy like bro, Go Blue 💙💙💙

[@rc8929]

I think at this point every democratically controlled state needs to pass laws limiting or blocking gerrymandering only when there is a National law. Right now California and New York (along with other states) are doing the right thing while Texas/Florida are working hard to make the most gerrymandered maps in history.

[@theuglykwan]

CA's commission only came about as voters kept fighting with the democrat lawmakers and finally used the ballot system to circumvent them. That isn't possible in most states. NY democrats massively gerrymandered, the courts struck down the maps. CA's new maps give dems disproportionately more seats than their popular vote. I'm not sure if that is due to republican self sorting or not. IL has horrific maps. MD's gerrymander also got struck down.

[@diamond_839]

@@PolarisAb literally this person only thinks republicans gerrymander like cmon have you the new, new york map

[@cotterjordan01]

@@PolarisAb yeah and because there’s a law in New York against gerrymandering, even the democratic controlled courts ruled against it…

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[@johnyoung1761]

California's map is a pretty bad gerrymander. New York's was so wretched that the state courts couldn't really look away, it would have been ridiculous, but even then it was a 4-3 court decision. No such thing as stopping gerrymandering as long as you draw districts, so good luck with your plans.

[@TristanMorrow]

2:48 "can only by used for a maximum of 2 election cycles" is the naïvest take I've heard about anything in a loooooooong time

[@ferddoesweirdthingsinlife1040]

it’s a law. Not a take

[@travcollier]

@@ferddoesweirdthingsinlife1040 I think the point is that the Legislature can just not pass a new map, and the backup commission can make the most minor do-nothing tweak and call it "new"... Just like has happened this time -_-

[@trace9021]

I don't know about naive, in a way it's kind of genius. The 2010 gerrymander gave the GOP control of the House for most of the decade, but population shifts over time meant that the many districts that had been drawn in 2010 to give Republicans just enough of a safe majority had shifted to being competitive districts that Democrats could win in a wave year, like 2018. This way, they've locked the Democrats out of power for half the decade, and they get a chance to reevaluate their gerrymander and update it to account for population shifts before doing it all over again.

[@TristanMorrow]

@@ferddoesweirdthingsinlife1040 that's the naïvity I'm talking about... After the first election cycle the party which gerrymandered to power will keep gerrymandering to stay in power.

[@Skellyy]

Floridas map is racist

[@johnyoung1761]

So is math, I understand.

[@tedgemberling2359]

In another one of your videos you say Illinois' apportionment is unfair to Republicans. Of course it should always be fair. But isn't it true that on balance nationwide, there is more unfairness to Democrats? I have heard that most votes in congressional elections nationwide go to Democrats though Republicans win most of the seats or just barely lose as they did in 2020. As long as there is this nationwide picture, is it surprising that Democrats in Illinois would try to fight that with some unfairness of their own? Once again, I am not defending unfairness as a principle, but life is a struggle, and sometimes if you are fair and other people aren't, you lose out.

[@mjsteele42]

That isn't remotely true. Both parties gerrymander like crazy to optimize their party's representation. But the Democrats have louder allies in the media who only decry such behavior from Republicans. Hence, you believe that "there is more unfairness to Democrats."

[@johnyoung1761]

"anywhere between 75 and 80 percent of" Ohio's seats? Hunh? Nobody ever said lawyers could do math. They could win 73 percent OR 80 percent. Nothing in between until fractional congresscritters are invented.

[@hunterking1569]

Cringe

[@paulgriffin5233]

Why don't you edit this video to reflect that all of the States didn't get the census data until mid-to late August 2021? This delay prevented maps being passed by the constitutional deadlines.

[@MrHamsterism]

Ohio voters better repudiate the GOP after this.

[@bluelv]

What about NY? Stick to the news not the gag stuff. 😒

[@karolakkolo123]

Classic targeting of only the gop gerrymeanders. Still the worst are in illinois and massachusetts

[@ShrubPig]

kzbin.info/www/bejne/iZu6mYaBact0rq8 Like this one from 2 months ago?

[@bluedreams517]

They did one on NY 2 months ago.

[@darienmiller1032]

Why do you people always pivot to NY when talking about republican gerrymanders? Go to their video on NY's gerrymander if you want it so bad, but this is about OHIO, not NY.

[@christinebenson518]

@@darienmiller1032 Deflect, deny and distract that's the GOP way!