One Ship Inspection Could Unravel Global Maritime Shipping || Peter Zeihan

[@spelunkerd]

In the past few weeks, three Russian ships have sunk or run aground, two in the Black Sea and one in the Atlantic. The Black Sea ships were not attacked, they couldn't deal with a storm. Who's paying for cleanup?

[@RemusCroft]

Nobody. Looking how russian government simply IGNORED their biggest Black Sea tourist zone gets unusable - they have entered mindset "we don't care if we shit where we eat anymore".

[@MrNicoJac]

Clean-up? What dya mean "clean up"?? 😂🥲

[@jnorth3341]

They had to hire the Dutch to clean up after the Kursk so it's not like Russia can do it.

[@aleksandarangelov6120]

Nobody or the countries in the region. Black sea is in a sad state right now.

[@АгронДепартье]

One was a terrorist attack. In Back Sea citizens clean the shore.

[@Blapedia]

It has already happened. Sweden held a ship from the shadow fleet in port for a few days to interrogate the crew. When they refused, they released the ship anyway. Finland is a bit tougher. Special forces from the Finnish Border Guard boarded a ship from a helicopter and seized it, which was towed into the Finnish archipelago and is still being held.

[@malcolmyoung7866]

Good to hear…👍🏻

[@dukeofgibbon4043]

What sounds smart but isn't? Making predictions of things that have already happened.

[@jamesthoem7109]

@@dukeofgibbon4043this video, like all his KZbin videos, was recorded a week ago

[@martinjuulandersen9694]

Nope! The Swedish case was a Chinese ship which was suspected of sabotage against underwater cables. It was in international waters so no one dared board the ship. The ship was monitored and agreed to halt its travel for a bit. But after a while it just sailed away. And the Swedes or anyone else did nothing because they wouldn’t want to setup a President of seizing ships in international waters especially not with the Chinese. The Finnish one was also sabotage against underwater cables (basically they let their ancher scrap the seabed over long distance thus sewering the cables) This ships was in Fimish water at one point so that’s why the Finish could seize it. Not because of Finish bravery. The last ship is also part of the Russisn shadow fleet But the reason for the its boarding and seizure is because of it suspected part of sabotage against an underwater powercable if remember correctly between Finland and Estonia.

[@stefanlinden7231]

@@martinjuulandersen9694To be honest, Finns are usually handling things in a more firm way than Swedes 😂

[@olpa1193]

Swede here; don't expect us to produce anything more significant than releasing disgrunteled statements or sending the occational upset formal letter. A Soviet submarine ran aground here in the 80s and we did absolutely nothing about it. The finns and the polish I have much higher hopes for since they actually have balls and don't take shit from no one, especially the russians

[@משה-ב1ט]

Well, the Finns have seized a Russian ship, with evidence of deliberate damage to undersea cables and a whole lot of spy equipment on board. So the ball is in Moscow's court.

[@abatesnz]

The difference is you're a member of NATO now.

[@malcolmyoung7866]

Don't knock your country men too harshly.. Remember now you are a member of NATO (although that could be a bit of an albatross around your neck?) so anything that needs to be said or done to any Russian action etc would have full backing of ever other member state.. What the US does though is key.. just as much as what it doesn’t do. New President etc ..

[@drfranks1158]

@@malcolmyoung7866 like the UN, talking about how upset you are will not solve anything. Canadian here, sorry Sweden .. you're just as meek as we are. No wonder the world is in turmoil --- no on has the balls to stand up to ruzzia or iran.

[@truthseeker9454]

@@drfranks1158 Israel is doing a pretty good job standing up to Iran and its proxies....

[@danz1182]

A bit of an overstatement. The Law of the Sea Treaty allows countries to ensure the safety of their waters. If a ship in a Nordic country's EEZ was found to lack insurance, etc. or even to just not be using modern navigation tools they would not impound it, they would deny it transit and tell the captain to turn around.

[@John-ed8ye]

The Convention on the Law of the Sea as well as the UNCLOS arbitration court also say China’s Sputh China Sea claims are invalid and China is abridging the treaty everytime they harass foreign nations boats, which occurs on a almost a daily basis now. Just because you have a treaty doesn’t mean it’s going to be followed, especially when there isn’t an UNCLOS police force to enforce the provisions.

[@Whitpusmc]

I don’t know, with the damage that the Russian’s are doing to undersea cables etc we can expect that some countries may just start impounding them and “inspecting” them, might take awhile to inspect them too?

[@mrniceguy7168]

Did you watch the full video before making this comment?

[@campfireeverything]

The bigger explanation of how these actions could lead to global shipping breakdowns is in his books. I would imagine it seems like an overstatement when some steps are missing in the video.

[@him_That_is_me]

Remember: the crunchier the Audio, the more important the video is.

[@sittinandthinkin]

Crunchier 😊

[@LoneWolf-wp9dn]

always talk into the wind... that carries your words further lel

[@Rob-no5dy]

hahaha

[@urlauburlaub2222]

Our ears are open, aren't they?

[@TheCrimsonSpork]

Listening to this video feels like eating a sandwich that contains sand

[@hardheadjarhead]

Dragging anchors across cables seems to be reason enough to instigate some action, eh?

[@AlfaGiuliaQV]

From now on it will be dealt with by the finnish police force "the bear gang"

[@jameshiggins8097]

So what about Nordstream pipe line that the US blow up ?

[@fontenbleau]

Force major. Are offering starting war? Have you asked all countries in Baltics including Russia when putting this cable at first place? No, so...

[@AlfaGiuliaQV]

@fontenbleau so what?

[@fontenbleau]

@@AlfaGiuliaQV so educate yourself in law, look at force major part in ANY contract. Case closed.

[@Lora_Lynn]

I think it's environmental concerns. Most recently Rissia did have an oil spill and there was no government cleanup. Residents cleaning the beaches and putting it into plastic bags. A contractor was burying the bags. The residence we're unburing them. What a disaster.

[@bigcity2085]

Erdogan won't stand for the black sea becoming a cesspool and having slime washing up in Istanbul.

[@6DunJuan9]

4300 ton of oil. While it is an environmental issue, it's on the smaller scale.

[@brian7android985]

It's political. If it was environmental then world shipping would run on clean oil.

[@TOMMANSON94]

Insurance on these vessels has two aspects. First is t value of the ship and the cargo. The second is the damage the ship can do to the environment. In the case of the Baltic, major environmental damage can be caused (oul spill for instance) or damage to other vessels or undersea cables). The West should confirm that these vessels have adequate insurance (called P&I)

[@massengineer7582]

The Nordics better get a $500 million bond from the Russians in case of oil spill contamination. I wouldn't be surprised if Russian hybrid warfare started deliberately releasing 10,000 or 50,000 gallons of oil into the sea.

[@johnstreet797]

Denmark controls the only way in or out of the Baltic Sea. By treaty they must allow "Innocent Passage" of ships from countries they don't like. However since the calamities with ruzzian and crynese ships lately it seems they would be prudent to place some restrictions on that passage. Denmark could require a bond, issued by a reputable Western insurance company, of $1,000,000,000.00 U.S. to allow passage, for Danish waters only. Then Sweden, Finland, Estonia, Poland, etc. would require their own damage deposits, in and out. Seems like a reasonable plan to me.

[@yves2932]

@@johnstreet797 You cant mandate an insurance and at the same time forbid selling those insurance to the russians. Nobody would accept that. You'd have to be willing to use force to keep them out. Russias land army might be degraded, their navy isnt much though. Would you be willing to open fire if they sent an escort along?

[@freezerlunik]

@@yves2932 Russia's navy is not in the greatest of shapes by far; have you missed the past 5 years worth of news about all the naval losses they've sustained?

[@saskhiker3935]

Russia had 2 ships carrying oil sink in the Black Sea. There will be no insurance to cover it.

[@billcasso5428]

As we seem to slip almost daily into chaos internationally I'm reminded of the Hemingway quote from the Sun also Rises.....“How did you go bankrupt?” Bill asked. “Two ways,” Mike said. “Gradually and then suddenly.”..........Look out world we are approaching the tipping point.

[@johnezzard680]

Don't worry. Donald Trump will solve everything.

[@phillipmcneely8384]

🙄😅

[@johnezzard680]

@@phillipmcneely8384 HE'S A GREAT MAN!

[@blinkingmanchannel]

In "Kelly's Heroes" the character played by Don Rickles says, "😅 make a DEAL!" I love that movie.

[@ReclinedPhysicist]

Finland had a good reason for seizing that Russian tanker. It's not Pirates of the Caribbean.

[@leofromthe80vega77]

The whole premise of Peter prediction that the sea is turning into a pirate's free for all is the only reason who moved pass that was the USA navy patrolling the ocean. That's Peter perspective, we are not more civilized than before is just a big scary guy forcing us to act right for the sake of the system

[@MrNicoJac]

Finland did, yeah. But if it sets the example that seizing ships is okay, then bad actors will come up with phoney "good reasons" too. That's the problem. America could police the oceans and basically decide what they considered good reasons or not. Which obviously involves bias and cliques etc. But at least there was more or less one standard, not everyone creatively expanding it every which way for their own short term gains...

[@Eyrenni]

It is, indeed, not Pirates of the Caribbean. It's Pirates of the Baltic! ;D Sorry, bad joke but I had to. But yes, I agree. Short of seizing ships, (as someone who lives up here in a Baltic sea nation) all I could think of is starting to patrol the lenght of the pipelines where people seem to "forget how to hoist their anchor" with coastguard or the navy. While that only solves one of the latest issues (and not so much the one mentioned in this video), it would be something. But I'm not sure how effective it would be. The Estlink lines (Finland-Estonia) are pretty short incomparison to some of the others. But most of it is outside national waters.

[@darkfool2000]

Like he said, Baltic sea trade would probably be fine, but global shipping would be an issue. Like consider if Finland confiscated a Russian oil tanker headed for India. Do you think the Indians would just stand by and just let their economic reality be dictated by people in Helsinki? No, they'd be pissed off, and since they're right next to the Persian gulf, any oil tanker from there to East Asia could be confiscated by the Indian navy. The security of global trade would only go down from there.

[@fontenbleau]

It's illegal because Baltic sea is international waters and there's no property on bottom with any cables, force major.

[@cemdursun]

Are you specifically looking for places with high winds for every video? Because it has been a great success.

[@flyingspirit3549]

We can't agree with you if we can't hear and understand you.

[@echoeversky]

The chili crunch adds flava.

[@athomeinthedark]

he’s not really in new zealand. look closely, in all his travel videos you can see the digital artifacts where he ends and the background begins. fancy green screen. like this dude travels and hikes the world non stop please.

[@cemdursun]

@@athomeinthedark lol it’s def not green screen

[@islandsedition]

The main reason for the shipping registry is to know which jurisdiction you take the ship owners/crew to court in for anything happening within international waters. It has nothing to do with protecting or policing the safety of the ship. As for what happens following an inspection, the first thing is, anything illegal within territorial waters can be prosecuted within the respective jurisdiction, ie ships impounded, captains prosecuted etc. Anything beyond the jurisdiction would have to be pursued in the courts of the jurisdiction where the ship is registered. Its not complicated.

[@rpbadham]

Ships over 500 gross tonnage (GRT) are generally required to have insurance or financial security to cover liabilities, including oil pollution damage and wreck removal, under international conventions like the Civil Liability Convention (CLC) and Wreck Removal Convention. However, specific requirements for national waters depend on the country’s regulations. For instance, EU member states mandate insurance for ships over 300 GRT transiting their territorial waters to cover maritime claims124. National laws may impose additional obligations, such as third-party liability insurance.

[@mencantbewomen]

You lost me when you called Freeland, the smartest person in Canada. I was floored when you said that.

[@jameswalker7899]

Some very interesting, insightful comments here. Thank you.

[@crabapple1974]

Why did you not include the major trigger for this beeing the repeated incidents where those ships have deliberately dragged their anchors to sabotage underwater power and communications cables? This is costing hundreds of millions to repair. The ship boarded by the Finns also had a ton of surveillance equipment. These ships are either bribed or otherwise pushed to do this hybrid warfare on the countries in the Baltic and the problem is that even if we seize them or fine them there is no money to be had. Is the omission deliberate or are you really that uniformed? Neither is a good prospect

[@ianleslie6971]

My thoughts exactly. Ommission of these details leads to skepticism and certainly questions on reports from this person.

[@converse5874]

hi did not include these details because the Eagle S incident had not yet happened when Zeihan was making this video (he posted it on KZbin with one week delay)

[@ianleslie6971]

@converse5874 thank you for this information

[@willbhav]

Maybe because that is not the trigger? This is about strengthening the effect of financial sanctions. This "shadow fleet" is used to circumvent trading of oil at a capped price. Removing/reducing this fleet, will severely damage the russkie capability to continue their wars. These inspections were decided (Made public) months ago.

[@ianleslie6971]

@willbhav the cut fiber optic communication lines have also been an ongoing issue in the Baltic which is where Poland comes into the issue

[@mitchkim6763]

I remember those emerald lakes. I went there as part of my geography class all the way back in 2006. Those lakes are super blue and beautiful, but ACIDIC!!! Even back then, I remember the Chinese immigrants washing their faces with it. Lol

[@thoso1973]

The Eagle S was seized within the Finnish economic zone. Ships passing through Skagerrak and the Gulf of Finland to and from St. Petersburg, will pass through the Swedish, Danish, Finnish or Estonian economic zone. I welcome if all the Baltic Sea states (except Russia) starts to board, inspect and escort all ships sailing to and from Russian ports. The combined navies and coast guards of all 8 NATO nations in the region, should be more than sufficient.

[@iam5085]

4 cables were broken, and thisnis the 3rd time - enough is enough and an example is needed in order to prevent further sabotages.

[@riikkapitkanen3666]

Greetings from Finland (Nordic, not quite Scandinavian nor Baltic)! No one is to blame, except Russia and other . The comfort flagged rusty tankers are a threat in so many aspects to all seas, not only the Gulf of Finland or the Baltic Sea. We flag for international conventions and democracy! Warm hugs from former clerk of Lloyd's Register of Shipping, Helsinki Office...❤️

[@Nils_Ki]

I don't think the Nordic countries are interested in revolutionising global shipping, especially not Denmark. It would hurt companies like Maersk. What they are interested in is protecting the environment around the Baltic Sea and preventing further damage to all the cables and pipelines that are crossing it.

[@williamzk9083]

Russia and its proxy China will keep wrecking cables because they can get away with it over and over. Not one leader in the EU has a pair.

[@antonyloc]

Until this video, I didn’t realize just how uncovered and colorless my head was.

[@YoungSantasGroupie]

Yeah dude, join the club. I’m filled with shame over my own head’s lack of coverage and bland coloring

[@dnomyarnostaw]

u totally missed the whole point. The Russian ships have to go through non-neutral economic zones of the Nordic countries. This is totally different to free open ocean transit. Google says "Navigation: All states, whether coastal or landlocked, have the right to navigate through an exclusive economic zone (EEZ). However, states must comply with the laws and regulations of the coastal state"

[@LoneWolf-wp9dn]

You're almost right.... Eez doesn't matter Eez is never policed... This is just coastal waters... The gulf of Finland is so narrow that finnish and estonian territorial waters lawfully close it off but they always left a free channel in order to be nice to Russia... Well that time has passed... Also the same in the danish straits

[@Bayard1503]

While that is true there is always free passage... if something like that is enforced in the Baltic Sea well... the same thing could happen in SE Asia where it's exactly the same, most shipping lanes don't actually go through international waters.

[@paullangford8179]

@@LoneWolf-wp9dn Yup. China has to be nice...

[@tomk8729]

Pfffft. Such pesky details are not Mr Zeihan's forte.

[@jiros00]

@@LoneWolf-wp9dn Be clear. That would be a blockade - an act of war. In peace, the law of the sea allows passage in this case even given it would be in non-Russian territorial waters. About compliance rather than being nice.

[@crosslink1493]

This all started with that Chinese ship about a year ago, where the captain denied doing it, then bragged about it after positively linked to it, so I wonder if it will include any Chinese-flagged boats regardless of their cargo (oil or other). That reminded me of the final scene in Monty Python's 'Holy Grail" movie with the French soldier in the tower shouting insults at the King and his band of men.

[@neilsmith5762]

It started with Nordstream 1 and 2

[@btfrost]

We’re not far off from that. In 2020 there was a lot of media consternation about potentially blocking ships between Iran and Venezuela.

[@shawn3693]

i was looking for this comment

[@craigquann]

China will absolutely be targeted as well. They're helping Russia and benefiting from the shadow fleet.

[@jpenna1976]

@@neilsmith5762 Those pipes should have never been built. Lobbied by corrupt politicians to provide Russia a weapon to terrorize and blackmail Europe. They intentionally made Germany dependent on their gas. Russia heavily influenced Germany to give up on nuclear power.

[@zapfanzapfan]

The Finns are way ahead of you 🙂

[@overdegrens7990]

Video is from 25th, they seized/entered the ship om the 26th

[@GreatRetro]

@@overdegrens7990 Oh, I see! New getting old FAST these days!

[@tim_peaky]

Driving a an uninsured car and you get al kinds of problems. But an oiltanker…. Nah not needed … WHAT?!?!😮

[@Fraet]

What happens if all the insurance companies refuse to insure your vehicles. Not because it is not seaworthy but because they just don't like you. At that point, you just go fk it and keep driving and damned be the consequences.

[@stevenginn5352]

Hey, mouth!! Where is your evidence that the vessels are uninsured?!

[@tim_peaky]

@ hey whatever… 😒 did I say that? Read good!

[@ChrisBrengel]

Peter is always such an optimist!

[@edwardgiovannelli5191]

He lays out a pretty good insight into what *could* happen. Its up to the powers that be to make sure they don't happen.

[@uuserneim]

Sooo, this already happened, Finland confiscated Eagle S, a terrorist russian shadow fleet ship which broke undersea cables on purpose.

[@RobertSandell]

And it happened on the day this video was recorded 😅

[@Ianskogberg]

Yep. Can't wait to hear what Peter has to say about that specifically. "But why is the Koskenkorva gone?" - Captain Jaakko Varpunen

[@AutoMattOn]

the finns currently have corralled the eagle S and ~17 other shadow fleet ships in a boat "prison" in the baltic sea, look on the ship tracking sites. finns at least are done f-ing around and are ready to hand out some finding out

[@yt.damian]

Yeah but that was for completely different reasons. They should have sunk that one. Let it get a good look at the cables close up.

[@thilomanten8701]

And the crew is interned - prohibited to leave the country!

[@bmunson4920]

If the ships in question didn’t enter Danish or Swedish waters, the argument on ‘free passage without insurance’ would hold. They do pass through Danish/Swedish waters, and thus are subject to their laws.

[@Rbajter]

That is not the complete story: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Copenhagen_Convention_of_1857

[@bmunson4920]

@@Rbajter is that like all the treaties Russia is supposed to work under regarding the territorial integrity of Ukraine?

[@Rbajter]

@@bmunson4920 The treaties are law in our countries. You do believe in the rule of law, don’t you? It is what Ukraine is fighting for.

[@bmunson4920]

@@Rbajter asymmetrical war requires any response available. Besides, Ukraine has nothing to do with Baltic inspections…why are you deflecting?

[@TheAngelOfDeath01]

There is the odd likeliness that what we will be seeing is regional grouping, (IE, structured like the EU) and some form of New Age Colonialism. Keep in mind, before anybody starts angrily denouncing this, why we got the Colonial Age in the first place and what that led to. And it's not so much that we here in Scandinavia are setting out to hunt things like tankers (as we would in the old days to hunt things like privateers or pirates,) we are going after those ships whose actions are attacking our infrastructure, meaning underwater power and communications cables. Putin is a threat and a menace, and he needs to be stopped. And to quote Nevil Chamberlain, former PM to the UK, "he can only be stopped by force". That was true of Hitler and so it is of Putin. Happy New Year, Peter!

[@craigquann]

There's talks of issuing Letters of Marque too.

[@tzazosghost8256]

Blackbeard has entered the chat...

[@painmt651]

That would be awesome!

[@i1pro]

*You need to go to Bolivia.* The mountains and lakes are amazing! That place reminds me of a lake under the waynapotosi mountain. There would be condors flying on top. The lake is green because of copper.

[@MrPetteri67]

One thing to remember, when listening to this, is that Mr Zeihan here wrote a book 2 years ago predicting the end of globalization and international trade and basically life as we know it. Therefore it is in his interest to preach that the incident at The Gulf of Finland (together with the other events mentioned) will somehow start a domino effect ending in situation, where each country needs to secure it’s civilian ships with its navy. However, there are no signs of anything like this happening. One ship sank, because it was ill-equipped to handle the weather conditions, another one was stopped by the authorities, because it engaged itself in an act of terror. There are about 100 000 ships sailing the seas at any given time, so what happens two ships is not sign of any trend, it’s a rounding error. Also unlike Mr Geopolitics is explaining here, while the most recent international agreements concerning international sea traffic were agreed on after the WW2, parts of the maritime law - and also international trade - have a history extending all the way to the Antiquity.

[@philjameson292]

The difference in the Baltic is that the EEZ of Finland, Sweden, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Germany, Denmark and Norway all intersect Any ship sailing into or out of St Petersburg or Kaliningrad has to sail through one of these countries EEZ

[@paullangford8179]

EEZ doesn't matter. It's the territorial waters that are the blocking location: Finland, Estonia and Denmark all can make laws that insist Russian ships be investigated.

[@philjameson292]

@paullangford8179 Russian ships can sail outside most of the territorial waters of NATO countries in the Baltic. Denmark/Sweden looks like the bottleneck where the territorial waters actually meet Anyway the EEZ gives rights to the ocean bed and if Russian ships are being thought to be damaging sea bed infrastructure in their EEZ then I would have thought that this would allow them to stop Russian ships inside their EEZ

[@gunnar6674]

@@paullangford8179 EEZs do matter when the ships harm seabed infrastructure though.

[@urlauburlaub2222]

@@paullangford8179 What matters is, what can they actually do without interfering with most laws. That's not so much, and EEZ is also regulating it. That's why (civilian) goods are always free to pass. In a joint effort however, they can do this and also demand, that they control it on Russian territory similar to the control of refugees in Africa. It's especially important, if Schengen or non-EU-countries are involved in regard to Russia, which is also a non-EU-country. Meaning, the Mediterrean, too, not only the Baltics/North Sea.

[@Withnail1969]

An EEZ has no legal force.

[@davidgoold492]

Glad you're enjoying our amazing tramps and scenery - NZ.

[@planetofthepete]

The Copenhagen Convention of 1857 does allow policing where the vessel fails to comply with "transit or innocent passage". Dragging an anchor or switching off a transponder would fail this test. CC1857 appears to supersede UNCLOS - but they are aligned for the most part. The real question is whether nefarious deeds conducted outside of Danish, Swedish and German waters justify inspection at the straits - I would argue it does as communications & power infrastructure are national assets and protected. As far as piracy goes ... semantics: One man's pirate is another man's privateer.

[@stevanjakovljevic8390]

in 1857 were transponders ?

[@planetofthepete]

@@stevanjakovljevic8390 Yes - they were 14yo kids posted at the top of the mast.

[@Yora21]

But aren't privateers just wet mercenaries? And as such, privateering is an act of war?

[@colinkeizer7353]

​@@stevanjakovljevic8390 Literally the time undersea telegraph cables were first being laid. I wonder if the Copenhagen Convention would explicitly mention such? They would have been expensive and vulnerable properties then just like now.

[@generalfuzzywuzzy]

I always appreciate the top notch audio quality of a Zeihan video

[@stewy62]

Peter’s videos may be a week late now but they still contain lots of good stuff, for example I’d not heard about this new initiative before 🇬🇧

[@VelvetRiot-hz5mp]

The great outdoors must be where Zeihan gathers his thoughts and comes up with his words of wisdom.

[@haraldthi]

As others have commented, this happened after the shadow fleet destroyed yet another sea cable in the Baltic sea, Finland finally seized the ship for thorough inspection and found enough surveillance equipment to disrupt the ships electrical system just for a mention. I doubt the plan is to confiscate willy nilly, but to actually do so when serious suspicion arises instead of letting them deny inspection and then just let them go. Which I can only applaud.

[@lonpfrb]

Absence of insurance to cover the cost of repair means selling the cargo and vessel to compensate. Time to dispose the shadow fleet...

[@haraldthi]

@@lonpfrb It's difficult when the cargo is oil and it has spilled all over the ocean though. The recovery costs are way beyond the value of the ship as well so it's difficult to find much to confiscate in such cases.

[@MikkoTikkanen]

Finnish police have not stated that there is surveillance equipment onboard, that's a rumor that started from some random foreign website. Could even be a russian fake-news to discredit the capture, who knows.

[@mariotomazzoni6523]

Putting the crew of the sezied ships in a guest house or prision in the far north of Finnland during the investigation may improve the willingness to comply a lot. And if the Fins found hard evidence for sabotage the crew can also be used as bargain chip in hostage exchanges with Russia.

[@traumajock]

"I need to see your license, registration, and proof of insurance please. Do you know how fast you were going?"

[@Brent-z2s]

I thought y'all gave 10 over.

[@NVKyleBrown]

"I pulled you over because your anchor is dragging. Get that fixed!"

[@zealman79]

"you were doing 55 in a 54." "Are you carrying a weapon I know a lot of you are" 99 problems...+1

[@FoxxofNod]

I highly doubt that they will take or even permanently stop the ships. This is to scare the ever loving crap out of the captains and crews of these ships with the aim of making them consider other ports and other routs while at the same time cracking down on the hybrid attacks against Baltic and now NATO under-sea infrastructure. This is 100% about the cables.

[@AlbinoMutant]

Well, you're wrong. The Finns did indeed confiscate the Eagle S as it was sailing by. Now they're talking about selling its cargo to fix the cables. So this significant trigger event Peter talks about has already happened.

[@akbeal]

@@AlbinoMutantFins should sell the cargo and the ship and stop any others immediately leaving that horrible place

[@TinekaJasonPalmer]

Kia ora Pete. That hike is a good one.

[@jasonchristiansen9063]

Ok peter. We are gonna need a hiking gear video.

[@davidsanderson8548]

So you like the Jack Sparrow look?

[@llproctor1]

@@davidsanderson8548 I thought he was hoping to try out for the E Street Band.

[@jasonchristiansen9063]

@davidsanderson8548 I don't care about the look. Just interested in what gear he's using.

[@papano6450]

The Russian grandma scarf is killing me 🤣

[@sampsasohlman]

You did made this video 25th and it like seems stars got aligned on same day as ship from Russia made their anchor dragging again and got detained.

[@geofflewis8599]

The last sentence is the most relevant ..

[@iam.damian]

I am Slovak living in Denmark. So my home country stopped receiving Russian gas through Ukraine today, and my country of residence is about to start inspecting Russian tankers. Interesting times indeed...

[@holyhandgrenadeofantioch2019]

The highly sophisticated, ethically superior Europeans laughed at Trump when he said the Russians would use gas as a weapon.

[@thetaomega7816]

@@holyhandgrenadeofantioch2019 we laughed at him, not what he said

[@DrMazinAbdullah]

Love your videos. Please record them in non-windy environments. The background is beautiful, but I watch your videos for the content

[@cz1589]

The eagle has lan...i mean stranded!

[@Kenneth_James]

How!? How does he do so much hiking? Not like he's 25. He must absolutely love it. My brain would never make me go so often.

[@christophernoble6810]

There is money in salvage, though. Even in the Baltic it would not be necessary to check each ship, only those with anchor down and moving. Also St. Petersburg is not an ice free port. Finland has taken the correct action in the circumstances.

[@tomgilfoyle6849]

It was just reported that orders for massive container ships (that cater to China) are down to 6 from 17, while "smaller" ships that would be handy for smaller ports are up by almost 500% to 83. Also Suez Canal revenues are down, and the Panama Canal is in trouble. Further evidence of the coming changes in world trade.

[@mariotomazzoni6523]

Suez Canal revenues are down due Houti attacks on ships. That hurts Egypt and ports in the Mediterranean Sea most.

[@tomgilfoyle6849]

@@mariotomazzoni6523 My point stands

[@ACME18]

Did you hear that Finland caught a russisan ship dragging anchor across cables? It happened long ago. When you read about it, do a show on it next week. Then, you can say what everyone else already said. Thank you. 😂

[@AS-mc8sl]

An end of global shipping??? Interesting viewpoint.....to put it politely

[@jrvarela]

Nations have the right to enforce laws and regulations within their territorial waters, and uninsured old ships-which can and have sunk-are understandably viewed as suspicious. As for the comment about Panama’s registry: ships registered under Panama’s flag are required to have insurance and are inspected to ensure compliance under the Nairobi MOU. The purpose of ship registries is to enforce international agreements, so no, they are neither fake nor useless.

[@agritech802]

It should be compulsory to ensure against cutting internet cables by accident as well

[@thebull2757]

Hey everyone. Peter Zeihan here. Recording from the most windiest places on the planet and despite knowing everything still haven't figured out a dead cat for my mic yet.

[@Wolf-Spirit_Alpha-Sigma]

Hey, at least he upgraded from a potato to a dead rat. Dead Cats(TM) are an expensive brand of mics.

[@F4GRAPHICS]

Good video Peter, maybe next time you could find somewhere windier, I could actually hear some of what you were saying here.

[@idcharles3739]

Lol

[@urtyp6596]

Bwahahaha geil

[@agentm83]

when Peter says "I can't wait!" For something... the rest of us start making popcorn lol

[@squireson]

Without proper insurance, you are not supposed to be able to _dock at ports_ ... if your ship damages something at the port or another ship or , you know, just catches on fire as Russian made things tend to do, the insurance must be there for liability. Of course, if you are just transferring oil to a Greek tanker at sea then there is no need to enter a port.

[@hsamzsd]

Yup, ship to ship transfers and avoiding most ports solve this. Suez inspectors can be paid off.

[@Olav007b]

The Danish straights are territorial waters, where Denmark and Sweden do have law enforcement rights, so it doesn't really have global consequences. (Its the same between Estonia and Finland)

[@Galliventure]

Why not invest in some mic with some solid wind muff?

[@1donjuego]

He is hiking. I would not take any extra weight that i dont absolutely need.

[@charlieschmitz759]

Needs more people to sign up for the patreon

[@Galliventure]

@@1donjuego DJI Mic 2 transmitter is 28 g, and does internal recording. The Hollyland Lark M2 transmitter is 9g and the receiver which you plug directly into the phone is 6g. I doubt if weight is a legit excuse.

[@MerchantMarineGuy]

Clown show

[@briansmaller7443]

Tongariro Crossing is a pleasant stroll. Just take good gear because the weather can turn there very very fast.

[@philippschwartzerdt3431]

Wide oceans are free and should not be blocked (although China is doing that all the time with Vietnam and the Philippine fishing vessels), but to pass through the Golf of Finland (narrowest straight at 12 miles between Estonia and Finland) or later the Skagerrak (narrowest straight at less than 6 miles between Denmark and Norway) the passage is so narrow that Russian ships are not only passing through exclusive zones, but through national zones. There the countries can demand that passing vessels comply with their national laws. So it is not “the end” of “free passage”. Otherwise China would be the one who has ended it.

[@saudade2100]

Insurance is not required? What if an oil tanker is headed from Country "A" to Country "B", passing Country "C" on the way to "B". Then through some act of negligence, the ship causes damage to Country "C"? An oil spill or some other act deemed to be from negligence What is Country "C"'s recourse abainst "A", and/or the owner of the vessel?

[@harukaharuka2818]

Peter the Pirate.

[@MikeNaples]

Or babushka. Regardless a bold fashion statement.

[@JasonG-wz1je]

Yar

[@dennisclapp7527]

Thanks Peter

[@Bebamyotamaki]

Wow, damn, the timing of this video, released 25th of December. Literally on the same day it happened by the Finns

[@curtisep5885]

Yay! A new Battleship game just released. Not quite in time for Christmas.

[@Acin75]

Come back of "Britannia rules the waves", or "Wellen tragen Kaisers Flotte"?

[@stevanjakovljevic8390]

Britaninnia rules the gays or arse 3 special overbore

[@urlauburlaub2222]

The last one is a reaction to the first one. Originally, the " Kaisers Flotte " meant the Spanish armada, and here we had the precessor of open shipping. It were the British, who nationalized and politized "free trade", but also in a reaction to the nationalistic French Revolution and the trade embargo. After that, all the Socialist "forgot" the origins and that lead to the Prussian Kaiser also politizing trade and militarizing, while most of Europe didn't like both. The US then supported Britain and "democracy" instead of real freedom.

[@Acin75]

@urlauburlaub2222 no need to teach me about history. But if we seize a Chinese ship that cut an other table, will our trade with China collapse, because they seize our ships???

[@DontEatFibre]

very great insight!

[@PiperStart]

The pirates of Barbary... now have drones.

[@hungryforknowledge5072]

The more things change the more they stay the same.

[@MrWadeant]

Since you are in NZ atm Peter, could you do a vid about how this effects countries like NZ that are so far away from everything and do not have a navy to speak of. (I get the feeling you are visiting us while you still can :s)

[@nmatthis]

I love you man but please please resolve the garbled mic.

[@SocietyIsCollapsing]

We need to be reminded in every video that he gets outside. Our ears pay the price in the end.

[@tlk889]

I cannot see how we could get to a virtually no bulk shipping, certainly not within several years. Prices would skyrocket, sure, and there will be shortages as a number of ships and crews likely wouldn't be able or willing to sail through some areas, but it wouldn't crumble in a matter of days, imo.

[@earth9531]

We all think Peter is a hiker, but he’s really just homeless 😅

[@JannePaalijarvi]

Make a new video about the aftermath of the Russian terror attack with Eagle S against underwater infrastructure between Estonia and Finland, with all the cable cuts etc. and including the released evidence of deliberate anchor drag, underwater pictures of the chain damaging ship hull, and stuff like that.

[@crawkn]

What normally happens in regions where there is no clear sovereign jurisdiction, but law enforcement is clearly needed, is Interpol. Interpols currently are usually over quite limited areas, but that will change, if maritime lawlessness continues to rise. Nobody likes to pay taxes, but they do it because the alternative is chaos which makes life and business too hazardous.

[@muchomail9086]

The Russian ship was last time inspected in Ghana over a year ago. They found some 30 issues. Internationally the ship has red and black flags all over it. Now the Finnish authority, Traficom, will do a complete inspection of the vessel. We'll see what they are saying about it.

[@KarenSmith-o3q]

tradeclear AI fixes this (AI-assisted customs compliance and documentation management platform). Ship inspection could impact shipping.

[@blakebrown534]

They should probably stop trying to cut internet cables in the area if they want to not be checked on constantly.

[@ofb1583]

You are better than that usually Peter, St Petersburg, ost luga(oil & gas port) near Estonian border & Viipuri(Vyborg) Finnish port in Russian Karelia, all 3 will need monitoring. Shipping insurance is mandatory for European, American national waters & ports plus all ship canals(Suez,Panama,Scheldt,Antwerp etc) You can't exit the Baltic without the Danes saying yes. A bit of beautiful scenery in a country you love, there goes the concentration! (says uber-pedant)👍👍

[@thoso1973]

... 'the Danes'...or the Swedes 😉

[@urlauburlaub2222]

The Danes can't imprison or blockade anyone, if it isn't militarily. Also, the Danes don't control Northern Russia, and Russia could also go through the land rivers. If it is that hostile, I also don't see anyone controlling the shipping of insurance. The British, as a supposed first world country, also ignore laws in Southern Europe (Italy, Greece, Croatia) frequently and behave like circus men or show their crooked teeth.

[@thoso1973]

@urlauburlaub2222 The Danes can block any ships going through the Danish straits, if they aren't insured. If the Russian state deny liability on the ships it is now 'insuring' should an accident occur somewhere, all ships sailing under the same 'insurance provision' can be denied passage or entry. That's with how the conventions and rules of the sea are now.

[@Cuddlestrike]

Zeihan, your intelligence and insight in global politics and the economy is very impressive, and interesting to think and hear about.however. there is one question i been missing to hear your thoughts about, and that is: How much longer, realistically, will our modern global economical development continue as it is doing currently? resource depletion and total system collapse, caused by chain-reactions of single failures in one sector of our economy, will indirectly affect other sectors etc. one example is syntethic fertilizers and nitrogen depletion in our soil. or depletion, or running out, of any natural resource/base element, is to me a HIGHLY likely thing that could happen. but nobody seems to talk about it at all in mainstream media! and it's SO obvious it WILL happen at SOME point or other. it's simple mathematics. id love to get an in-depth video about this issue, and hear your thoughts about this! and perhaps, with your knowledge of many different areas of our society, perhaps you could enlighten us with new knowledge, or a different point of view when it comes to this? anyway, i'd love to hear your thoughts on this. thanks.

[@michaeldarling1759]

The Russian problem is very specific, Peter. I don't think anybody is going to change the underlying order just because of one bad fish. I highly doubt anybody is going to be seizing Russian ships in the Baltic unlawfully. Peter, lately your analysis is very off.

[@edwardgiovannelli5191]

he's laying out one (educated) guess as to what *could* happen. Its up to us to make sure it doesn't and we're usually successful.

[@lonpfrb]

There's no need for unlawful action to board, inspect, detain, and dispose these vessels. Finland is always lawful, and doesn’t take any RF nonsense...

[@mariotomazzoni6523]

I won't be unlawfull, the Nordics can just declare the seizing "a special military operation".

[@AndyLynch-d2c]

Welcome to my Country! I hope your enjoying it!

[@benjones4365]

There are a lot of ships siting just out side the Sues canal, waiting for some one to pay up for alleged damage to the Sues. No body has declared war on Egypt to get their ships back, so not all that controversial if the Nordic countries say they want the ship to have an Insurance policy from them.

[@crystaloffrost]

It is not the same situation at all. This video would jot exist if it was the same. Those are ships willing to pass suez canal and have already agreed to terms of passage and accepted all responsibility before hand. Same is for panama, you have to sign a letter of indemnity before allowed to pass. But stopping a ship in international waters or an innocent passage ship belonging to orher country that has not done anything illegal is different. It means then Russia and China or anyone can do it too.

[@Mike-zx1kx]

@@crystaloffrost Finland have published quite compelling evidence so far, so cannot hardly even attempt to use the word "innocent". Finland seem to have very solid grounds for bordering ship and detain it and it´s crew.

[@benjones4365]

@@crystaloffrost But it has done some thing illegal, it has damaged property belonging to someone else, eg underwater cables.

[@davepannekoek1562]

Nice walk the Tongariro Crossing. Hope you enjoyed it Peter, pity the cloud cover was low.... Did you detour to the top of Tongariro (easy 30 minute side walk) the views there are awesome on a clear/clearish day

[@RJStockton]

My dream of becoming a pirate grows one step nearer. . .

[@swampwiz]

You need to get a bandana like Pete's.

[@defenstrator4660]

As soon as all that cable cutting happened I knew something like this would happen. I thought they might just insist they have pilots through the Baltic to make sure no one dropped anymore anchors.

[@JonathanBarna-db7ni]

Hit 200k today. I'm really grateful for all the knowledge and nuggets you had thrown my way over the last months. Started with 14k in June 2024

[@FatyBean]

Congratulations on hitting the 200k milestone! That's an incredible growth from 14k in just a few months - what strategies or investments did you implement to achieve this remarkable success?

[@Chioma-ng8yo]

You're correct!! I make a lot of money without relying on the government. Investing in stocks, BTC, and XRP and digital currencies is beneficial at this moment.

[@JonathanBarna-db7ni]

As a beginner, it is essential that you have a mentor to help you stay accountable. In my case, Elizabeth Marie Hawley has guided me for months and I highly recommend her. I focus on her. To be honest, I'm almost hesitant to let someone take charge of growing my finances, but I'm so glad I did.

[@ChisomOkoro-ut3gj]

I have heard about her excellent trading expertise in CNBC news, guess she's more popular in United States.

[@JapaneseMarley-mt9is]

This sounds so good and I would like to be a party to this, is there any way I can speak with her here in Washington?

[@sargepent9815]

Three of those old tankers have since sunk in the Black Sea recently

[@davidoff7312]

Funny that Germany was not into this since we have an enormous baltic coast as well.

[@t-pnaminami3808]

Germany is generally useless and to be disregarded.

[@lonpfrb]

Step up Germany! Soviets no longer your masters...

[@michaelwest4325]

Simply turn them back to port, that shuts down the shipping without embroiling one in seizure, unless it does something unlawful, such as sabotage via anchor, then arrest is well within the norm of legality.

[@cryptickcryptick2241]

Interesting. Fascinating. Well it may not be a bad thing. We do need to hold Russia responsible for it's actions in ukraine. Using ships to drag anchors and disrupt and destroy undersea cables is not cool. This flagging issue of ships has been a bit silly. I understand that with flagging of ships comes other issues (costs) of crew ect. Having a few more people properly inspecting what is going on on ships is a whole lot cheaper than rebuilding undersea fiberoptic cables.

[@wizzzer1337]

Peter is the server admin, we just living in it

[@Kenwood1990]

Where did you find that thing on you’re head .

[@rosewarnehouse3398]

you only have right of free passage if you obey the rules, ie must be insured against spills, must have navigation beacon on, must not carry sanctioned goods, otherwise you have no right of free passage

[@fs5775]

Peter has quite the carbon footprint...

[@MARCMOEY]

Peter is right again!