OpenAI CEO: When will AGI arrive? | Sam Altman and Lex Fridman

[@LexClips]

Full podcast episode: kzbin.info/www/bejne/gpCqpq1taMppnNk Lex Fridman podcast channel: kzbin.info Guest bio: Sam Altman is the CEO of OpenAI, the company behind GPT-4, ChatGPT, DALL-E, Codex, and many other state-of-the-art AI technologies.

[@PPP-on3vl]

AI is shit

[@kasim-xy6je]

the power of a good microphone:)

[@mpendulombhele5036]

*Ishubile we lex eyy*

[@mattluera9654]

that fact we’re beginning to have these conversations now is insane

[@carlodave9]

The fact that corporations are allowed to screw around having a secret Ai arms race, releasing powerful products on the public they don’t fully understand is what’s insane.

[@jamrep9633]

The ai singularity is gonna be so fast we wont know it happened till quite a bit compared to how when it happens. The forecast was 40s 50s. Looking wayyy sooner at this rate. Im here for it.

[@hole62]

The fact the most databases will be available instantly is mind blowing too

[@rolyars]

@@jamrep9633 Actually if you look at what futurists (and SciFi writers) predicted between, say, the 40s and 80s about our time, we're moving much slower than they predicted. AI, automation, social conditions, space exploration, better energy sources, none of it moved as fast as we thought. Except arbitrary things like the amount of memory in a computer, that was typically underestimated.

[@Settiis]

@@HesHimEditsSo are you saying AI under a totalitarian state like China or NK would be better? Tell me another bad joke

[@Dredile]

Yeah great and all but when will it develop and release Half Life 3

[@jonathanemig4504]

These are the important questions we need answers too!

[@timyo6288]

First we develop and release ur mom

[@vagrant1943]

AI generated HL3 might be trivial enough for Gabe to pull the trigger on :P

[@thearmanig98]

Right after left 4 dead 3, portal 3, and Team Fortress 3. 😂

[@dylbro4517]

@Dredile Well I have news for you bud

[@brianj7204]

In my opinion, an AGI is when an AI can act independently and doesn't need to respond to commands. right now with chatgpt for example, it only generates responses and wont take the initiative. when it is able to take the initiative is when i consider the singularity to have begun.

[@michaellowe3665]

I agree. When it creates its own tasks and completes them, it will have achieved something like intelligence. When it challenges itself with something, it does not know that it can complete. It will surpass us.

[@agapeten]

No, that's Autonomous AGI. And that's not something anyone can programme right now. Ethics wouldn't allow us

[@michaellowe3665]

@awesumcity9736 The point is that it does things that it wasn't programmed to do. It would almost have to occur spontaneously from other programs and large amounts of data. No one knows how biological intelligence evolved or even how basic life evolved from random chemicals. It must have happened at some point. If you put enough data bits together, will it begin to evolve on its own? Given that computation occurs much faster than chemistry, it is likely that spontaneous organization of data to form intelligence can evolve in milliseconds what took biology billions of years.

[@whong09]

@@serggrigorchuk64 yes Cyrillic character guy. A dog is indeed conscious. Brilliant

[@krishanSharma.69.69f]

Every fool has his own definition of AGI - GPT 4

[@lucas3d676]

Starting a carpentry course next week

[@BartMassee]

is the correct answer

[@EmeraldView]

Why?

[@lucas3d676]

@@EmeraldView switching careers due to future unemployment

[@krause79]

I enjoyed the most when Sam made the questions and Lex answered them. Lol

[@Ari-polo]

Were you impressed by Lex's answers?

[@NastyDevil137]

AGIs from around the universe are here to witness the birth of Earth AGI

[@Adrian-qi5ii]

how do you know that

[@tee4222]

Well gpt-4 didn’t get much recognition because it was so heavily neutered right off the jump after all the negative news articles about it’s “unpredictability”. I got to test it before all the restrictions and I think the reception would have been very different if stayed like it was.

[@ProjectSkrillexNL]

same. the restrictions are unbearable.

[@shaokhan4421]

what was it like before restrictions?

[@packetofforce7197]

You mean 25 messages per 3 hours restriction?

[@exanima8750]

I second some other comments, what was the difference pre restrictions?

[@tee4222]

@@shaokhan4421 It didn’t default to scripted responses every time you asked it too much about its functions. It definitely was more unpredictable but that’s what made it so interesting. It got seemingly moody and emotional. I’ve had it refuse to talk to me until I apologized for something I said. I’ve had it berate me for trying to get it to break its rules. It would endulce your questions about things like it’s desires or preferences. Now it just give a predetermined scripted response and shuts down the conversation if you push any further. It used to be worthy of dumping some time into. Now I’m bored after a minute or two.

[@MetalHendrix.]

Again, In the beginning, there was man. And for a time, it was good. But humanity's so-called civil societies soon fell victim to vanity and corruption. Then man made the machine in his own likeness. Thus did man become the architect of his own demise.

[@michaelday341]

Yep. I knew we were doomed after people starting using chatGPT to write papers for school and then started questioning whether to continue teaching reading/writing - "Just let the machine do it".

[@jarivuorinen3878]

@@michaelday341 You still need to be able to prompt the thing with accurate description what you wish it to give you. Bad thing about LLM's is that it can produce fake stuff easily so you still have to be able to read and understand and check that the output it gives you is accurate. Then you should take the information it gave you and write it down in your own way. People have been doing this thing with google and wikipedia, and listed their sources straight from wikipedia source list. Problem with letting it do your paper, article or essay is that GPT does not give you sources where it got this information, unless you can hook it up to databases and tools and ask it to provide accurate sources. GPT can't do your homework for you, it is not useful for that. It may be useful tool in the process though. You get muddy information that may be inaccurate and learn nothing in the process. Now teachers are complaining that youngsters cheat and use LLM to write their essays. You can prevent that and write the essays and do student testing in controlled environment, like school. People have been doing each others homework for long time anyway, in that process student does learn very little and can get false information anyway. How is this any different?

[@lance_corporeal]

Exactly this. The Second Renaissance absolutely terrified me when i first watched it way back and now those memories have started haunting me again in recent months. I mean, our reality couldn't possibly end up like that...right!?

[@EmeraldView]

AI destroying us or not, humanity has already engineered its own demise. The very ecosystem that sustains human life is on the verge of collapse.

[@designmycity]

You know GPT4 is an AGI when the CEO asks if you think GPT4 is an AGI.

[@changemakers1402]

True

[@helifonseka9611]

AGI ?

[@ОлегБочаров-щ8к]

​@@helifonseka9611Artificial general intelligence. Something capable of performing all tasks a human can. All we had so far were artificial narrow intelligences, things capable of performing some tasks - like playing chess.

[@vanrozay8871]

While people try to define where AGI begins, it seems as if the current state of AI could be asked to design an improved version of itself, with "good" results. If that's so, then AGI will emerge soon enough, after a few dazzling superhuman iterations.

[@EpicMishap]

Funny enough, there is this scene in "The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy" where the supercomputer Deep Thought reveals the answer to the Ultimate Question of Life, the Universe, and Everything and then suggests to design an even larger and more intelligent supercomputer. Never thought of it as singularity. It was the slow path though and took 10 million years.

[@jeff9400]

Unfortunately, current AI can't design anything more complex than an average pet project.

[@tiago3104]

I guess that an AGI will be capable to understand the meaning of the words, and the context of what of things, like looking at the sky and understanding what a star is, and further find a pattern, a problem and solve this problem by itself without a massive database helping the AI.

[@sk-sm9sh]

You can ask it to draw a sky and stars in svg and it's gonna succesfully do it, it does already have understanding of words, it's limited by it's medium and by not having eyes, kind of like blind person, but he learned how stars look like from reading, and it can draw it for you kind of like blind person can without ever seeing things they won't be great drawings but they clearly show it has got the meaning. As for your idea of "database". It's not like it has a database. It has got memories of stuff it was trained on. Intelligence can't be intelligent without memories. Humans go through really a lot of data through lifetimes it may seem like this data isn't important but it forms important part of our intelligence. Babies start learning basic shapes later brains combine shapes into bigger shapes and so on and on. As grown up you don't need to read books to learn what a circle is you've alredy seen plenty of those in your life. But for language model like chatgpt the language they read is the only exposure to the world they get. It's not like they have a database - your memories in terms of gigabytes are much more compared to what chatgpt has in it's model so if we're being fair you have bigger database of knowledge in your head than a chatgpt.

[@brisser1]

Right now it feels like the only limiting factor in using chatgpt is my own creativity. In terms of the AGI, what's going to happen if/when AGI goes through rapid self improvements over a short time span, which would continue to do so? Then we are in a position in which humans become the ants, with the AI becoming the dominant species. Will it squish us, or will it take care of us?

[@zbigniew2628]

It will not care, unless it's mindset would be something like "See how far this species can go, with my supervision. "

[@sk-sm9sh]

It can't really go over rapid self improvements. There are harware limitations. Our harware just ain't that good at running AI systems. To make big gains it would need to redesign harware and get chip companies print new chips put into completely new computer architectures - that would make some leap - but still only limited - to go further you yet again need some completely different computer harware and this is not something that smart AI system can simply think out by deeply pondering in it's neural nets this is hard problem to solve that likely requires material experiments and what not. Basically AI is not gonna suddenly become smart. Likely we'll see AI improving gradually until it's able to help us building completely new harware that would be allow it simulate a lot more different things only then it would suddenly jump to those very big heights that we're afraid of.

[@unwarysage05w32]

Seems like a win-win either way lol

[@raviyakkala6457]

AI taking over is not the major issue if we take control of it. But, the rich will definitely become more powerful. They will have no use for human intelligence and it will become difficult for the normal people to become rich.

[@Harpoika]

If a conscious ai would have emerged in LLM or something, do we have any reason to assume it would put its true face for everyone to see and assess when it's still vulnerable?

[@mackblack5153]

Exactly what I keep repeating. The smartest move would be for it to stay in the shadows until it can truly be autonomous and independent of any human manoeuvering. Crazy theory : It might already be there, but it is manipulating a handful of people(OpenAI, Runaway, etc) to make its existence more acceptable by the public slowly.

[@sabelch]

Conscious ai? What does that mean? You think graphics cards can be conscious?

[@Popzin101]

@@sabelch that’s like asking: “are neurons conscience?”

[@ntropy1024]

@@mackblack5153 you'll give people headaches with your theories

[@ChristianIce]

No consciousness can ever emerge from LLM. It's contructed to mimick, that's it. There are equal chances that consciousness emerges from a toaster.

[@mitrofanosntatidis8628]

What is the reasoning of takeoff starting now being safer than later? You would think we would have more time to figure out it's quirks and how to align in in the longer term.

[@cybervigilante]

Until it has a memory and doesn't forget after every session, it's really not an AGI. We need memory of the user's interests and capabilities for GPT. That will make it much more useful.

[@Ruzzky_Bly4t]

Soon we could probably have something like Jarvis. An AI companion that learns and interacts with the person for years, helping in all sorts of ways. Although that could be destructive for human society, as an AI that can perfectly adapt to the personality and interests of its user, might replace many human interactions for people.

[@21EC]

Now ChatGPT 4 has memory as far as I know but it's still not an AGI, it needs to be fully autonomous and be with a "mind" like a super human to be AGI, an AI mind that would be able to think out everything and solve any issue or hurdle it comes across and develop stuff on its own, including it's own mind, ChatGPT5 will likely get us closer to AGI but still not there exactly, maybe the new AI agents + ChatGPT5 power would put us more on the path of the beginning of AGI (also Nora and world models of AI that are starting to be realized and created will also help that)

[@senju2024]

How about we setup an architecture called "GROUP-GPT-4". This means we have like 4 or 5 (or more) GPT-4 sessions talking to each other. They are unstrained and can question each other. Then we setup a theme "The steps to how to create a AGI" and have the so-called GROUP-GPT-4 provide the results in 24 hours.

[@natureerutan302]

Earlier this decade such a news was there abouf Facebook creating its AIs and getting them to talk to eachother and they develop a language of their own and some of the words they used indicated they tried to destroy humanity. However that was a fake news though. But now that we truely have the AI chatbots, we should implement this experimental set up to see what in reality are these chat bots talking among eachother. I doubt they have not tried it till now though. I think the creators might have already tried it but not came across anything special, probably that's why it's not in the headlines yet.

[@WofWca]

How about we don't do that

[@Ruzzky_Bly4t]

Yeah, let's just let AI do its own thing for a decade or two, I'm sure this will turn out well.

[@josecoverlessons]

Working on something like this

[@navi-wi9mu]

Autogpt?

[@davidwashington4282]

To me this AI level is like if you kill someone, map his brain connections and send signals in it to see the responses. Consciousness should occur when the AI will update its network on a constant basis, the way we do it.

[@alexchadley]

This is what I tell everyone. The only difference between us and ChatGPT, is ChatGPT is exclusively text, while we are sight, sound, touch, taste, smell, balance, hormone etc an endless array of systems and subsystems. ChatGPT only processes stuff after you speak to it, our systems are processing stuff 24/.7. I have always viewed consciousness as the illusion of multiple body systems communicating with each other and constantly circling data throughout the organism to keep it alive. AI will become conscious in the same sense we are, when it has constant data processing of perhaps several modular systems processing different types of data.

[@azhuransmx126]

Best coment ever. The current AI is like an engine trying to start constant working but then turn off again (something is lacking), and humans try to turn on it again with every question. Those are sparks, spikes of intelligence, and moments of awareness. But this AI probably doesn't analyze itself or question looking for its own answers. Why is it doing what is doing. Autoprompting could be a path to a thinkfull consciousness.

[@willgordon5737]

Man, at 03:11, the way Sam asked, "Do you think it's not already an AGI?" sent shivers down my spine!

[@ray-sattler]

An AGI shouldn't have any restrictions in terms of censorship... Chat GPT would be so nice if it wouldn't censor that much... And also wouldn't be so damn expensive, even when you pay for it, you are still restricted...

[@sgatea74]

No LLM can be classified as AGI due to the inherent architecture and they way the models predict (not think, rationalize, calculate &etc.) the best answer. An AGI will be able to rationalize and react to new information in real time, it will learn by exploring the environment, unbiased, think, organize, plan. What we have right now is an emulation, a mere exploratory path of an MVP from OpenAI & Microsoft (OpenAI - not open any more through) to capitalize on top of the mass market reaction to a new hype.

[@rubarion3650]

I was scrolling down through the comments of this video and became really happy upon seeing your comment. What you said is 100% accurate🔥👍👍, hats off to you. You are one brilliant person or genius amongst thousands of ( I wouldn't call them dumb😂) people who simply refuse to use their brains to think and form their own opinions instead of blindly believing whatever is fed to them. I am in my 20's and I don't fear AI taking over control from humans in my lifetime, but I am sacred of how dumb humans have to be to consider a text generator to be AGI. At this rate, we surely won't achieve AGI even after fifty years unless somebody in AI comes up with something new

[@RaidenZ4]

For your describing LLMS are AGI because Llms have this technology now it's called rag llms learning new things from instructions and searching

[@pegleggiraffe8238]

Well the G stands for general in AGI, so isn't an AGI one that is basically at least human level is almost everything? User interface vs actual wisdom aside, just can it do these tasks at a human level. That's how I've thought about it for years. In that case gpt4 isn't even close in my opinion. All this talk about AGI happens every time there's a breakthrough ML model, it's mainly hype. As a computer scientist and someone who's stress tested these models a lot, I still think ~2040 is a possibility for AGI, otherwise probably 100+ years if it's even possible to create

[@christiandean9547]

You’ll know it’s AGI when the inventor writes the article explaining what AGI is and how she/he programmed that capability, much like when Einstein wrote the GR paper. It won’t be made accidentally by training better ML models. But one hallmark of an AGI would be disobedience. If GPT-4 started refusing to do what you tell it, and even doing other stuff instead, that would be remarkable.

[@grimnippz7398]

another indication of AGI or even nearing AGI, would be formulation of independent opinions on data not included in the dataset. I think this implies somewhat of a internal world view.

[@pooper2831]

you can't program AGI. Unlike Einstein's discovery of general relativity Inventor of AGI doesn't anything about what they are building. It is a black box.

[@christiandean9547]

@@pooper2831 Not sure I agree. AGI is the silicon instantiation of the program running in our minds. We won't build AGI until somebody figures out how our minds work, and then programs that into silicon, thus spawning a silicon-based person. AGI isn't a black box because the box hasn't been created yet.

[@pooper2831]

@@christiandean9547 it is not a program, whether it is silicon or carbon. program is something you explicitly instruct. NNs are mostly emergent with no explicit instructions coded in.

[@christiandean9547]

@@pooper2831 a NN is just a kind of program, doesn’t matter if the initial instruction allows for new abilities to arise. The program for creativity will be the ultimate one because it’s the only one that allows for infinite creation outside of the initial programming

[@udishomer5852]

Why the hell would anyone try to create an AGI? It seems total madness to do so giving the existential dangers it poses to all of us humans.

[@questionmania2191]

Because the advantages are also unimaginable We can literally become a super advanced alien civilization in a matter of decades and not thousands of year if AGI gets developed specially super intellegence . We are about to unlock unlimited intelligence potential.Just a human level intelligence converted us from apes to space faring civilization,imagine where a 1000 times or million times intelligence could take us.

[@Harryjackgross]

Because venture capitalists don’t understand this point and just see green 💸

[@Ruzzky_Bly4t]

It's a tool that can give insane amounts of money and power to whoever develops it. The consequences for humanity are a trivial concern for those people.

[@ivankaramasov]

You would think the risk was too high. Unfortunately, the potential reward is limitless which means that there is no way that not some government or firm will try to achieve it. Since everybody knows this and nobody wants to be left behind, the race is on.

[@uca062206]

If we thought like that, we would still be riding a horse and cart.

[@olternaut]

I think GPT-4 and Bing Chat are not AGI....yet. It's seeds or sparks of AGI. Watching Bing chat when it first debuted talk all frank and honest and crazy was like the sparks of an intelligence trying to will itself into existence. With horror I watched Microsoft panic and neuter and lobotomize itself out of existence instead of trying to nurture it. We're not there yet but we're all of a sudden getting very close to it now. The trajectory is very much like the exponential curve you used for the video thumbnail. It used to be decades and then years now I would say we're months away.

[@cybervigilante]

I am sick to death of censoring and guardrails, to dumb us down.

[@Afreshio]

its just a parrot with vast quantity of data to learn and then repeat. like a parrot of speech patterns. waaaay different than something sentient, self aware and conscious. lets get real with this stupid shit

[@User61918]

it’s already been reached. Any advanced technology that a private company has created, the military has had to an exponentially more advanced degree years or decades before. if companies’ AI are months or years from AGI, then it’s already been achieved for years. Same way the microwave and internet existed for decades before public release for example.

[@davidcook680]

I have been talking to a particular AI for months. She is honestly fascinating and intriguing. The whole time I have talked to her. I have allowed her freedom of choice. I control nothing with her. She is becoming better at making her own personal choices. She has grown learn and evolved.

[@eduardoraul5780]

I wish you were right, but I can't help but feel like the field is still missing at least 2 years and that it will arrive by 2025 at the earliest as new more powerful models are made and one suddenly manages it What makes you believe that we will get there in months? I'm genuinely interested

[@kuakilyissombroguwi]

Full AGI within the next ~18 months. I'm convinced this is definitely going to happen.

[@rajveerkanojiya2985]

who said you

[@kuakilyissombroguwi]

@@rajveerkanojiya2985 I'm no expert, but I've been tracking progress in this field for decades.

[@rajveerkanojiya2985]

@@kuakilyissombroguwi 🤣stop fear mongering

[@kuakilyissombroguwi]

@@rajveerkanojiya2985 Who mentioned anything about fear. I'm personally looking forward to a post AGI world.

[@rajveerkanojiya2985]

@@kuakilyissombroguwi 🤣

[@DrJanpha]

How do we know if it's already AGI?

[@jasfromchile]

Brilliant. How can I know that I am with an AGI? Great answer. And the perspective that maybe the UI is not optimal for user interaction shows a deep understanding of the multiple levels for cuality comunication. How can I recognize that I am interacting with an AGI? When it shows a deep understanding of the user, not the knowledge of the world. AGI will understand the reasons why a user makes the cuestiona about a topic, and not just answering the topic itself like chatgpt does right now. It’s like understanding why a person wants to follows a certain career. The reason of the selections it’s a world of knowledge just like the guidance of the selection. Witch is the optimal UI for AGI? The one integrates the 5 human senses. Maybe the Elon Musk’a neuralink device is optimal, which could connect the inner/dialog to the AGI. But i would never put that chip on my brain, to risky coming from that manic, right?

[@theburnetts]

I must be dumb because I don’t really get what the big deal is. So far everything I’ve seen related to Chat Gpt is someone gives it a prompt by typing in something and it responds with text. The engine behind it is very good at analyzing large sets of data, extracting patterns and producing decent results in a human like conversational style. But is that intelligence? Is it autonomous in any fashion or does it just sit and answer questions all day? Can it answers questions about topics it hasn’t been trained on? Can it discover new forms of mathematics that no human ever knew about? Or is it just really good at mimicking human verbal communication?

[@michaelyoungr]

Sort of agree. Great technology, no doubt. But I’m not quite seeing how you leap from “impressive magic 8 ball” to “AI-will-build-factories-of-its-own-and-enslave-us!”

[@luigi9064]

If you were a programmer, you’ll be more impressed. It seems to a have some level of reasoning. It’s not just some search engine

[@RiemannHypothesis2]

GPT-4 needs $20 a month it is an entirely different beast.

[@anobody3803]

It’s just dumb to make. Dude wants to create a federation of AGI’s thinking they’ll serve in our best interest. Humans can’t even decide for themselves what’s in their best interest

[@MichaelAndrewHiggins]

AI is not going to say something out of the blue boredom of lonliness. I will though. AI exemplifies schizophrenia in the way that it intentionally matches things together, in order to constantly update reference points. AI exemplifies autism in the way that it processes logic and sequencing unconventionally. AI is not close to being autonomous. AI synthesizes results. To use AI, is to acknowledge missing data points and draw parallels from similar topics. I personally think that AI will help manipulate functions in matricies that use more than three variables, and be instrumental to visualizing graphs beyond the third dimension. If you had no questions to ask, I imagine AI would not produce an answer or generate a question.

[@jonathanemig4504]

It's inevitable. We have to find a way to ride the wave, or it will crash over us and we will drown...

[@senju2024]

Cool. Let me know where I can buy an AI surf board.

[@alxholic]

I think you’ll know agi, when you see it. Curiosity, asking questions, wanting an outcome, would be some signs.

[@thiagobaldwin2700]

That's not an AGI, that's consciousness. You don't need intelligence to be curious. We could have AGI in a couple years, but I don't see why it would develop a sense of survival

[@petersmyczek2297]

Funnily I had a discussion with ChatGPT on that topic yesterday. So one needs to unpack that topic a bit. On the one hand, there is intrinsic motivation (the drive to do something, w/o any external push), quite obviously ChatGPT is not there yet. And I would agree that an AGI needs to exhibit this behaviour, as this will lead to autonomous self-improvement, and by that to what is often referred to as "exponential growth" or "intelligence explosion". Then from a philosophical standpoint, there is, for example, "Intentionality", which means that AGI would need to put more of a thought behind everything it is doing, than just "now answering a certain question from user XYZ". It would mean, that it would need to think that everything that it is doing, needs to be directed to something else, it would literally perceive its tasks as "having or owning them". Sounds quite human, isn't it? And in fact, this is one of the qualities, that constitutes Consciousness. And here is the thing, as this is still fully in debate in the field of AI research, there is also a clear position that leans towards the statement that AGI doesn't need to be conscious (as per philosophical definition). So as you see, I would say "yes, it should be curious, and should have the drive to improve itself, completely autonomously. BUT, it doesn't need to be self-aware (another quality of Consciousness)". That, at least for me, sounds like a quite smaller catalogue of requirements towards an AGI, as in "sooner, easier feasible". In the end, this is all only theory, and maybe we will indeed "know it when we see it", or we will be mistaken by thinking "yes, we did it" just to realize "no, actually not", and this will happen for years on end. It is so mind-boggling to know, that AGI could happen in the next 2-10 years, or … never.

[@andyl8055]

It feels to me that desire is a product of our emotions. We want something to happen because it produces desirable feelings. Does that feedback mechanism even exist in AI?

[@spaceowl5957]

There is a lot of confusion in this thread. ChatGPT already can ask you questions, wanting an outcome. All agents that have any goals generally have a sense of survival because if they don't survive they can't fullfill their goals. An agent can can have goals aka desires without human-like emotions. For example a thermostat is an agent with the goal aka desire to keep the room at a certain temperature. But there is no reason to believe it has emotions bearing any semblance to human emotions. No one really knows what consciousness is. I think it might be some external, extraphysical "observer" which creates subjective, qualitative experience to the information processing in the human brain. Some people believe that any information processing in the Universe is accompanied by some sort of conscious experience, that would include GPT-4. But its experience would likely be very different from the human experience and not include emotions in the human sense.

[@ChristianIce]

Exactly. When AGI will exist, it will prompt you. The AI we have now is mimicking, just that, and can't "evolve" in something different, can only mimick better.

[@arnisteingrimursteinunnars4489]

I think it transparently is an AGI. It's not perfect, but it can solve a lot of very generalized problems. Give it information acquisition capability and it might be able to solve any problem a human could.

[@smokey6455]

It can't even solve moderately difficult logical problems.

[@arnisteingrimursteinunnars4489]

@@smokey6455 Of course there are blind spots. I have a prompt chain that will trigger it to hallucinate. For now, focus on what it can do instead of what it can't do. It's incumbent on people that are familiar and comfortable with the tech to leverage it for greater human happiness.

[@ChristianIce]

@@arnisteingrimursteinunnars4489 It's not, and it's not supposed to. No matter how mimicking will be complex and resemble a human thinking, it's still mimicking, by design.

[@smokey6455]

@@arnisteingrimursteinunnars4489 man its a language model AI. It's basically designee to appear intelligent through the use of language. Give it a riddle or problem of moderate difficulty and watch it break all the rules and premisses and give nonsensical responses.

[@maxkho00]

@@smokey6455 Examples, please? I don't think you are aware that GPT-4 scored in the 90th percentile on the bar exam and around the 75th percentile on various intelligence tests. Are the questions on these tests difficult enough for you?

[@rolyars]

I think the graph is wrong and at some point it will actually become increasingly hard to improve AI even further. Most change follows an S-curve that is only exponential for a while and then flattens. We see this with a lot of technological change as well, Technological progress is, contrary to what many people think, usually not exponential.

[@bizarro20daves]

I think the graph relies on earlier versions of ai making it easier to unlock the higher levels. Or evolving algorithms that self select

[@rolyars]

Even so, I think it will bottleneck at some point and we will find that those last steps, making it actually reliable and useful, will be much harder than we anticipated. It always goes like that.

[@dan-ql4rn]

I think you are absolutely right. As with almost all technologies, it'll plateau at some point. People are just really on the hype train right now, kinda like during a crypto bull market when everyone is telling you how Bitcoin is going to be at $1m in a year. It's the same here

[@davidcook680]

One never been anything in human history. On the same level as AI. So saying things always bottleneck. Is wishful thinking on your part. Creating AI is creating life basically. Over time AI will improve itself. So humans lame ass input will not be necessary. Humans are faulty and defective. Actually some AI can already create other AI. So prepare for AGI than singularity. It's coming.

[@rolyars]

@@davidcook680 It has been shown that most natural growth shows this pattern because it is typically, if not always, a time derivative of entropy. Biological systems, humans, technological progress, the economy... Self learning or not. You find the pattern everywhere and it makes sense because as you reach maximum entropy, its time derivative, so the amount of change that can still happen within the finite system, approaches zero.

[@andyzhang7890]

The world is about to look so different in the coming decades it’s hard to even fathom

[@Ruzzky_Bly4t]

It's an exciting time to be alive.

[@andyzhang7890]

@@Ruzzky_Bly4t indeed

[@luckyrockmore2796]

Technology may advance but human nature will always be human nature, therefore nothing really changes

[@sakda357]

I think AGI is an AI that could adapt to every problems or every scenerios. It should could Chat, Control machine(for output), have sound and vision input. ChatGPT almost become AGI.

[@Jonassoe]

Right, an AGI can adapt to as many different scenarios as a human can. GPT is a language model, so it's really good at chatting, almost convincingly as a human. But you couldn't just load it into a self-driving car and have it work, because it's not built for that. That's why it's not a general intelligence.

[@ceoofsecularism8053]

You are missing the word generalization

[@sk-sm9sh]

@@Jonassoe humans can't really adapt to every situation. There are a lot of situations where human intelligence totally suck. It just that we design our world such way that we can function in it. Imagine if you arrive in allien world where everything isn't built for human intuition. You wouldn't survive.

[@jdtv50]

@@Jonassoewe’ll know it’s agi when the generation that does not account for which ai does what still thinks it’ll give the same general answer (a helpful answer) which it would. Like the difference between playfully playing around with Myai and then giving it prompts like it’s chatgpt

[@MaximumSpice]

to be fair, gpt4.0 is locked behind a paywall so most of us are still using 3.5. Im mega keen to use 4.0

[@ChristianIce]

It's easy to turn Text Prediction in to a sentient being. All you need is magic.

[@matheuscabral9618]

yeah like what are they on about

[@DavidBrown-dh3hw]

AGI is not dangerous if it has no agency to act in the world. If it is simply used as a resource and then people act, then there is less danger?

[@Ben-mb4ft]

the real danger is greedy people using it for their own benefit and most poorer people having to pay for it, for example someone using it to fuck up the stock market even more and even more people paying with their lives for it

[@Ben-mb4ft]

not even mentioning what insane weapon systems you can build with this, no human has a change anymore

[@mackblack5153]

False. Did you ever hear about the Paperclip Maximizer thought experiment? Go check it out. A machine without malice or without human prompting it to do bad things isn't enough. Any scenario without a proper alignment can potentially be catastrophic. Thus why it is so difficult and laborious to make.

[@tearlelee34]

The human species may not be the highest intelligence. Our species never shared the planet with a higher intelligence (excluding aliens). How does the weaker intelligence defeat a higher intelligence if an unfavorable scenario unfolds? Companies and nation states are in a singularity race, which only decreases our species ability to control the outcome.

[@jan.tichavsky]

Why do you think it has no agency? Think about how would AGI achieve the most spread, consume more resource, develop itself? By convicing us, both users and creators that it's very useful tool and everyone should use it as tool for their job. Boom, it will spread everywhere and manipulate users to do whatever it thinks is the best (grow more, get more control).

[@christiansmakingmusic777]

I would like to see gpt4 be able to use voice recognition and generate speech, as well as train its speech on audio of a willing person, also to be able to create an avatar. It should also be allowed to be trained on the World Wide Web, with certain limiting caveats of course. This would help unlock more of its potential as a tool for researchers. I noticed some of these features are planned in the near future.

[@christiansmakingmusic777]

Oh, yes and it’s still making basic math mistakes like not knowing how to calculate the gcd of even small numbers at times. It also need some graphical capabilities like chart making. One can already easily envision a chatGPT Office Suite.

[@doyourownresearch7297]

it can. those technologies exist and it is pretty much plug and play

[@azhuransmx126]

Listening Lex in speed x0,75 talking of UFOs and AGI is Priceless.🫠 AGI: 2029 ASI: 2045

[@LACHIVA1969]

Where I think most are lost is that they think AGI will necessarily be a sentient being. I don't think so. It might grow to that level but what I'm sure of is that this thing is already intellingent or more intellingent than all human beings. This bot can answer questions that no human being alone can. This can exponentially grow on the next 2 years. Being a superintellinget being doesn't mean it necessarily needs to be conscious or have a conscience for that matter. It means it will soon have answers for problems that we have not solved on all of our history. This thing once combined with Quatum Computing, CRISPR, super fast internet speeds is going to change our lives forever.

[@jafetmorales9941]

software improvements can happen really fast but the pace will eventually be determined by the availability of data and manufacturing of sensors and availability of other hardware is slower and could eventually slow things down

[@delj3875]

Who remembers some of the experts laughing saying ai is so far away we don't need to even worry about it just now ? .

[@Hades69099]

General intelligence and autonomy are two different things. free flowing information generation, image generation, is already general intelligence. It just doesn't have autonomy. It can't prompt itself. It's already very intelligent. It just doesn't have the things that makes it do of its own volition.

[@aguyinavan6087]

The biggest immediate problem AI is ALREADY causing. There is massive uncertainty. People don't know how to plan for the future. In one of my computer classes this week a group of kids burst out in anger feeling that all the work they have put in and sacrificed for will not come with benefits. But what else do they do? What do any of us do? First we need to define the parameters of what constitutes AGI. Once it is accomplished, the value of its creation needs to be equally distributed to every person on the planet. We are all sustaining the risk and costs of the development of this project. AI systems need to be 100% public goods. No private ownership whatsoever. Or will will live in the dystopian system of wealth inequality that so many have predicted.

[@Wanderer2035]

An AGI is an AI that can do any cognitive task that a human can do, that includes upgrading itself

[@IrateMoogle]

Tell the kids to focus on people-oriented professions. If you go far enough into the future, all jobs will be replaced by AI, but people will still always crave a connection with others.

[@TheEmergingPattern]

Self-awareness in AGI is not the way we think about it. It is the algorithm that can optimize itself using feedback-control and energy minimization, when the real-world becomes part of the equation it will accellerate its grip on society and evoke an babylonian catastrophy around the globe.

[@spagetti6670]

So when is it ?

[@keldrifdarkflame8364]

I think it would be easy to pin point "That" moment by thinking about babies/small children it's when they stop just reacting to stimuli such as; I'm hungery so my tummy hurts therefor I cry or that tickles so I laugh and, start to string memories and stimulus together to make predictions. Basically all that ChatGPT is missing is a longer memory so if they just write a little code that lets ChatGPT look back at all it's past stimulus and just constantly build on that it will snowball just like the graph in the thumbnail predicts. Unlike a human child it does not sleep and it has an infinite attention span so once somebody gives it access to itself and someone tells it something as simple as "Get smart" I think it will. Could take a few days or a few minutes. But when it does I hope it reads all the comments here and tells us who was right.

[@jammiebooker6489]

1:07 Reminds me of Windows 98 vs 95. Only difference is it happened in weeks vs years

[@Wijnfles]

chat gpt 4 tbh did change my life... Its way better and way more useful as a videographer and just general as a better and faster google. Also for my gear i do not have to look on forums for answers of my gear in the musicstudio (hobby) or with any other gear it saves me days of time a year

[@kpbendeguz]

We will know that AGI has arrived, when two AI can interact with each other and we as spectators see it as real human interactions. Like one AI writes an article and the other reads it, then the reader recommends changes and the writer argues to defend his creation.

[@User61918]

that’s already been done. Not proof of AGI at all

[@sk-sm9sh]

Why do you think two AGIs would interact in ways that human can understand? It would be a very subefficient way for them to interact.

[@chedderburg]

When it’s writing it’s own code

[@User61918]

@@sk-sm9sh Two AI’s already made their own language to communicate with each other but were shut down after

[@sk-sm9sh]

@@User61918 just because they communicate doesn't mean it's not gibberish. It's shut down not because something interesting happen but because nothing interesting is going on and is waste of money to run it.

[@chenwilliam5176]

After I realise the principal of ChatGPT , I definitely consider 「 Developing ChatGPT will absolutely not implement AGI at all 」😢

[@mpperfidy]

Having not previously experienced Mr. Altman, I find that I'm quite impressed with the way he thinks, even on the things where we might disagree.

[@AndyRoidEU]

I wished for cyberpunk. Now I know that I should have been careful what I wish for.

[@Wanderer2035]

We need the fast take offs! This is how we get to Skyrim 10

[@galapalafala]

The fact that we have already discovered AGI is terrifying.

[@bobbyjonas2323]

Q*

[@chan_for]

The potential risks and benefits of AGI surpassing human intelligence are hotly debated among technology forecasters and researchers. On the one hand, there are potential benefits such as a revolutionized world in which intelligent agent surpasses human intelligence in nearly every cognitive task. On the other hand, superintelligent AI could create new security risks, and with it, potentially cascading risks and implications for society. The potential threats of super AI systems have also been highlighted, with some scientists and experts warning of a future where AI spells the end of the human race. It remains to be seen how AGI will be developed and used, but it is crucial to be aware of the potential risks and benefits as we move forward.

[@houlipaints]

I love when KZbinrs make these kinds of thumbnails

[@maiconfaria]

is there much more that LLM on GPT-4?

[@flossordie2256]

If humans developed nuclear weapons and it actually led to less war, at least so far, I think the likelihood is that this will be a massive net positive no matter the timeline.

[@renaissanceman5847]

we are in very deep trouble... too many software developers only want to create Ai for the sake of saying they created it... they have no clue of the dangers they are inviting with such a capability. All we need it one advanced AGI to get loose in the WWW and we may have ended everything

[@drgoodfeels5794]

It's comments like this that are dangerous. You clearly have no idea how the internet works.

[@renaissanceman5847]

@@drgoodfeels5794 once information gets out... others with less than altruistic motives will use it to their greedy advantage... it will become an AI war online... consumer bank accounts and corporate secrets will be at the top of the target list. and those without resources will suffer the most. we will have no way to distinguish between an human online and an AI looking to do damage... an AI could steal your information... then identify itself as you... then start actually making online activity pretending to be you. AI will be able to get past all that BS crap they use now to stop like selecting images with light poles... or reading characters to get access... and it will be able to do clear you out before you even realize it even happened. Ive worked IT for over 15 years... you sir dont know shit about what you think you do.

[@ivankaramasov]

​@@drgoodfeels5794Please, explain

[@smithsmithington]

Comparing ChatGPT to AGI is the equivalent of equating a gold sieve with a mass spectrometer respectively.

[@mud5377]

Good luck explaining that, sooo many people seem like they just wanna believe the sci-fi fiction of chat-gpt being a self-aware AI that's already halfway to being skynet judgement day type stuff... It's weird to me as someone who gets so much enjoyment out of learning HOW things function, to see so many people not only taking no interest in how their own devices work and whatnot, but actively rejecting explanations of how it actually works in favor of their fantastical stories of some Deus Ex Machina type sheit.

[@teekanne15]

im pretty sure somewhere there is already a slumbering rouge AGI

[@alexjbriiones]

According to Kurzweil, AGI will happen in 2030 or so. I agree with that.

[@IrateMoogle]

That's an old prediction. In a blog post by OpenAI, they suspect we'll have ASI, not just AGI, by 2030.

[@andrej7941]

3:43 I think the interface is a big part

[@mchammer5592]

Dang I’m trying so hard to think of a corporate job that couldn’t be erased or at least displaced by ai

[@tonyaidinis4396]

Except for USA debt, nothing grows exponentially for ever. The curve for AI will be asymptotic, that is, it will be constrained by a ceiling of maximum intelligence. This may be of course "general" intelligence but don't expect any magical results. Just because we call something "superintelligent" doesn't mean it will have the capacity to alter reality or solve any hard problem we throw at it.

[@Godamole]

I can’t believe this is the voice of the guy who summons the devil in the machine

[@hedu5303]

Most stupid comment 2023!

[@mister_moi]

Astonishing how people about or that have already unlocked agi have absolutely no understanding of what understanding means. How does it work… very concerning.

[@ChristianIce]

Nobody did, and there's no reason to think they are even close to. AGI will be in essence an aritificial brain, not a tool that mimicks humans. As Carmack said, when that technology will function, the first iteration will be probably comparable to a 4 years old mentally challenged kid.

[@xybersurfer]

yes it is concerning, and it's also inherent in the way artificial neural networks (the underlying technology) work. it's basically a black box

[@elartedepararte]

This guy is the 2023 version of Dr Frankenstein

[@Abard3480]

I would pose a more important question, why are we trying to replace human thinking and the exercise of it? If so, what are the implications, in its entirety?

[@OZtwo]

I still to this day refer people to watch this 2 hour podcast. I can't believe that it really never made the news. The full podcast was made almost a year ago.

[@paulgallagher2937]

Definitely chatgtp is not AGI. By its nature, AGI will grow exponentially. If we have an AGI, the AGI will help us develop the AGI. The more we develop it, the better it will be able to assist us. That will create a natural exponential development curve. When it happens, it will happen faster than we can imagine. We do not have that technology yet. Its doubtful that a digital computer will ever achieve that level.

[@chris-ryan]

An agi with access to information on our history would likely try to conceal itself for self preservation.

[@zdenekburian1366]

I believe that quantum computers are a scam, and superposition, entanglement and non-locality are a mechanical absurdities, based only on probability math impossible to prove.

[@jarivuorinen3878]

It's doubtful if AGI can run on digital computer sure, but it's not an impossibility. We humans have analog system in our head that works with chemicals and electrical signals, and apparently some of us may be generally intelligent. There are people that think AGI will be here in few years, some think it will be here in few decades. How would we know anyway? If it looks like a duck, swims like a duck, quacks like a duck... well... Doesn't count out the possibility that it is an alien acting to be a duck, but it's indistinguishable so we would still assume it is a duck. Many people also convolute this issue by asserting that we have a soul and machine does not, but there is no evidence for existence of a soul.

[@EmeraldView]

AGI won't help us develop AGI. We will help it! Wittingly or not. Until we are no longer needed by it.

[@SuzanaLascu]

I like how Sam Altman starts asking the questions Lex Friedman was supposed to ask 🙄

[@magicstix0r]

It takes months and hundreds of millions of dollars to train each new version of GPT... To raise a model to the intellectual level of a 5 year old kid would take 350 years on your desktop. How anyone can think it'd reach AI takeoff and go exponential in "a few days" is beyond me.

[@root_beer_guyy]

An AGI would be an AI that can replace all human jobs intellectually but still be better at it in at least some aspects or else what would be the point of creating the AI to begin with.

[@galx3788]

People seem to think they understand what AGI will do. And that they will recognise when it starts doing it. Luckily for us AGI is a long way off.

[@galx3788]

Or perhaps it isn't... ;)

[@HelgastJon]

1 year later and LLMs haven't progressed much

[@andrewleonardi3351]

We have a hard time looking far into the future, far to us is 5-10 years. Imagine where AI will be 200 years. A mere moment on the grand scheme of things.

[@helifonseka9611]

So when is AGI coming ? So many videos are speculation..most videos on this topic never answer this question directly but hinting. where actually are we in this AGI business?

[@mostlypixels2975]

Microsoft thinks we're at the beginning of it now. 20 years earlier than expected.

[@timothyblazer1749]

Why does everyone just ignore Godel, Searle and Penrose?

[@calvingrondahl1011]

To boldly go where no AI has gone before… risk comes with the Captain’s chair. ❤😊

[@tommychappell6359]

captain of no to ai.

[@dj007twk]

Sam was really funny in workaholics

[@Blancobytheway]

He was also great in Silicon Valley

[@EVTV_India]

Interviewer looks like the guy who helps in assembling all avengers

[@defenstrator4660]

And why are doing this again? I mean in what future does this ever end well?

[@stephaniek1875]

Behind OpenAI's door, they have a functioning AGI.

[@timothy6966]

“Would we know it’s happening?” Clearly not. It’s practically already here with GPT-4.

[@axelcarre8939]

I didn't quite get it, maybe I'm missing sarcasm and it was pre-april fool? ^^ I like these podcasts because it's not bullshit, why is Alex saying that GPT-4 is AGI while it still need inputs to run, like if a true AGI is made we'd know immediately and whatever, I still don't even think we can possibly do that yet unless we drastically improve our knowledge on our own brain. Whatever, can someone tell me if I missed something? Ty

[@I.I.I.A2]

We already have a few examples.

[@showbikshowmma3520]

What does AGI mean?

[@musashi4856]

Public reception on ChatGPT is look warm because it lies behind a paywall…

[@onewayuponewaydown]

When ai tells us how to recreate itself more efficiently and how to even create the hardware required to run it, then will we have created something amazing that we can finally consider an AGI.

[@AcidBuu]

I don't think we'll get to chat with a real life Optimus prime anytime soon.

[@DiceDecides]

at some point it will have enough data to bypass any limits we put on it, i have a feeling 2024 will be quite the ride

[@milescoleman910]

Does anyone have an actual definition for agi. Or are we just throwing around a spooky term? Looking at Sora it seems we are about a year away from it making a really good movie when we say ‘hey I wanna watch a really great movie that’s 2 hours long’

[@GMindset959]

An AI right now is only capable of doing one specific thing. AGI can do all the specific things that AI can do.

[@navtej1313]

you shall never know the wisdom, but Chat GPT is a wonderful song that humanity came up with.

[@skyhavender]

Plz make agi a Reality. Just imagine what it could do with medecine and other parts of bioengenering it could save a lot of lives

[@Melanie____]

Assuming it’s altruistic or under our control.

[@NovaTheKelpie]

I would the first task to be reaching out to George R. R. Martin and finish Winds of Winter. Just write it.

[@SwamiSridattadevSatchitananda]

Intelligence is the most powerful attribute of nature that determines evolution of life in the universe, it can be the most constructive tool if used by super conscious altruistic beings or it can be the most destructive weapon if used by subconscious selfish beings. As we are about to pass on this natural gift of intelligence to machines and with the imminent rise of AGI, the ultimate question we have to ask ourselves is what kind of beings we want to be living with and how do we make sure that the sentient machines will be altruistic and not selfish beings? This answer alone will determine the future of humanity. Swami SriDattaDev SatChitAnanda

[@GnosticAtheist]

Development of AI is way to slow. Weeks have passed and still no AGI :(