Our Community Wants To BUY THIS STOCK! | Stock Analysis

[@MartinJG100]

I am from the UK. We have a dividend culture going back many years when the US of A was still in nappies. Share buybacks are popular where management wish to massage their EPS, a misleading metric at best. If it is not possible to reinvest cash it makes more sense to pay down debt which, incidently, jumped in BAT a few years back when they purchased another company. The market consensus was that they overpaid, hence the gradual fall in share price over time against a backdrop of concerns over growth potential which you have covered. For comparison, IMB (Imperial Tobacco) could be considered a better company now that it has reduced debt with good cashflow. Either way, they are both about franchise. Growth companies are another matter, of course. By way of a benchmark reference, I believe the only real reason Berkshire Hathaway buys back shares is when they cannot find suitable investments at a suitable price.

[@MartinJG100]

As a further footnote to my previous post, let's not forget the considerable amount of revenue that goes to governments in the form of duty and taxes (as much as 20% on alcohol AND 20% VAT, a total of up to 40% in the UK), all of which is paid by the consumer, notably on cigarettes, alcoholic beverages and fuel. Anyone who believes governments are keen campaigners against the so called 'sin stocks' on health grounds is either in cloud cuckoo land or badly informed. Hypocrisy reigns on the grounds of say one thing and do another. It is big business and they are never going to turn their back on that for a number of reasons starting with their index linked pensions.

[@TheMainStreetInvestor]

Great overview of BTI! Lots of headwinds and some potential tailwinds on the horizon (oral, smokeless, and non-tobacco products could provide a boost to revenue and growth), and I think the current risk to reward is very favorable. People have been lamenting the end of tobacco for decades, all while missing out on market-crushing returns. I'm accumulating.

[@davidlazarus4198]

BTI is diversifying into other revenue streams like vaping, nicotine patches. I believe that they should do what Altria did and buy a stake in an alcoholic beverage co like Anheuser Busch (Altria owns a 9% stake). The biggest markets now for BTI are China and India and developing countries. It is a risky investment, but over the last 50 years the returns have been great. I own a fair number of shares, so i hope they can diversify.

[@NOXkaz]

My revenue growth rate assumption is 1% on the low end, but my multiple assumptions are 7 on the low end and 9 in the best case scenario. I like this stock in the low 30s and I plan on trimming my position in the mid 40s and would sell more shares if the price got to the 50s. I'd expect that to take a while with the pause in buybacks, but I'm ok with that since they are prioritizing managing debt and rewarding holding shares from the divs.

[@serghorpt]

I Believe BTI is increasing dividends for 23 years, if they make to 25 they will be considered a “dividend aristocrat “ and lots of funds and ETF are gonna buy for that reason bumping the price. Or im wrong here?

[@Daniel-ld3zi]

Dang, I was hoping they'd cut the divi a bit and focus on debt and buybacks

[@terryreese663]

You always like the buyback when stock is lower than its historical average. Sounds like a good stock in either case. Which company has the moral high ground. I think none of them. Oil is better? Automotive? Banking? AI? I am not sure there is the great panacea of an ethical stock. Great analysis as always.

[@EverythingMoney]

Exactly....morals and values have their place in life, but difficult to make space for them when it comes to investing....profit is profit 😉- GC

[@wimjochems2718]

@EverythingMoney Do you have an updated version for BTI?

[@jonathanemontgomery]

If their customer base is shrinking and their business might be illegal soon, I’d rather get paid a dividend than “reinvest in the business” imo

[@EverythingMoney]

Make sense...- GC

[@j.c3664]

Go to treasury yields or royalties streams if you want some sort of cash flow. I’d rather them invest in their business so they can continue to grow internationally.

[@Gulin12]

Sadly, any shadow of illegality in an addition makes your product more expensive.

[@SKJERT]

Could you please do metrics of $inmd? Your videos are one of the highlights of my evening!

[@guy7018]

Own it and keep adding as the market beats it down and props up overvalued fomo growth with no divs. I can't wait for the market to correct.

[@bernteinar906]

Will buy more tomorrow on the x.div date :)

[@maadhavdantuluri]

what do companies do after buying their own share..? also do they show them in any of the financial statements or 10K Reports..?

[@trumppence3834]

They can either hold them as treasury stock on the balance sheet or cancel them.

[@raphaelembarbe4626]

Very interesting to see Paul doing the assumptions on a difficult stock like this. That's not like Google or Ferrari, we know they are extraordinary companies.

[@noredbull1]

You still assume market multiple expansion. If staying conservative for real, this should return around 8-10% a year (in a form of dividends), and that is actually still very good return with potential (not guaranteed) bonus from the matket.

[@rcg5317]

Been following this a long time. The growth is dependent on the growth of smaller economies. My theory for the dividend is two part: 1) they have lots of third world investors where tobacco is still acceptable, 2) they are keeping their cash and internal capital values low to keep First World busybodies uninterested in raiding them for pet programs. Finally, they are down in large part due to the firing of the CEO for corruption in Asia, Korea, i think. As far as moral issues, if you can own a Ford but wouldn’t let your wife drive one then this is no problem.

[@tomcat8662]

I know smoking is on the decline. But vaping appears to still growing like crazy. What are the margins like on vapes versus cigarettes?

[@EverythingMoney]

True - GC

[@Optimised7]

Can you analyse chargepoint CHPT please

[@EverythingMoney]

Thanks for the suggestion...feel free to join our communty to learn more - GC

[@Javier_Rodri]

We are already in the big crash, Inflation is a catastrophe. This CPI report is a colossal failure. To bring the stock market to a halt, the FED will have to pull all the stops. The unfortunate issue is that other markets are being decimated. If you want to stay green, you have to rely on a lot of diversification. Currently up 14% and being careful. Still a better deal than leaving it in a savings or checking account yielding 0-1 percent interest

[@Muller_Andr]

People believe their currency has the worth it does because they have no other option. Even in a hyperinflationary environment, individuals must continue to use their hyperinflationary currency since they likely have minimal access to other currencies or gold/silver coins.

[@IshaanArtharv]

How did you go about it? I'm seeking for a more effective investment approach, particularly with regard to dividend investing, I am having a hard time locating any cfp/cfa to answer my questions in my area. I am seeking a really good advisor who can manage my retirement savings.

[@HappyHealthyHVAC]

Started super small position this morning 😎

[@EverythingMoney]

Great stuff my man - GC

[@spanter1346]

Does the % return include the 10% dividend or not?

[@EverythingMoney]

Nope - GC

[@joeg9829]

And where is the mention about the 28b stake in ITC unlimited they hold?it was in your notes but nothing 🤦‍♂️ they get 500m dividend from it yearly

[@12345krillin]

The looming legalities of tobacco may be a boon for the tobacco industry. It basically insures that no new competitor joins the industry as they wouldn't want to enter a "dying industry" and therefore cements the oligopoly. I put dying industry in quotes because 1. Rates of tobacco usage decline are slowing down, baseline seems to be around 20-25% and 2. Every other product usage (vapes, mouth tobacco, non-combustibles) are going UP.

[@rjcork]

is there a divided counted into current price return?

[@EverythingMoney]

Nope...dividends afe taking out from FCF, which is already calculated... - GC

[@crysis33331]

Is ethical for ministry of health or doctor to own this

[@MrWiffleHead]

I'm British and love Brexit but since Brexit UK companies have been marked down heavily ...... the whole UK market is relatively cheap..... up to you if you think the discount is fair.

[@MrBigPasta]

BUD, KO, DIS, CVS, are all buys imo

[@theeporithirumugam9629]

Uncle Paul.. You're the best. Your video made me confident to invest in Mete when it was 88$ a stock. Subscribed!

[@jesper4512]

Bought this a few months ago - thanks for doing an analysis

[@andy3d1]

They also pay a dividend as the want lower cash flow because of all the lawsuits. The more cash / value the higher the settlements.

[@bobb7918]

If they cancelled the dividend the stock would tank. That is why people buy it...for the dividend. It would be a kicker if they buy more shares.

[@michaelday8838]

I don't think you understand share buybacks.

[@Daniel-ld3zi]

Good. Hope they cancel for a bit and the stock tanks

[@ericrodrigues167]

Can you do an analysis on Sony?

[@EverythingMoney]

Sure thing...feel freee to join our community if you like our process of investing - GC

[@HafeezBlackLeg]

Those who hates dividend is not an investors, they are trader and gambler...

[@alig2472]

Had this in my UK account for a while. Beautiful tax-free dividends 😎

[@EverythingMoney]

Nice one pal - GC

[@gpa30051984]

How is that tax free?

[@BuzzDevine-hj6qm]

Uk have 20k a year tax free ISA. All dividend and capital gains are tax free as long as you do not go over the 20k👌

[@briantibbs6592]

It would be a tragedy if they stop paying a dividend to buy back shares. The only time buying back shares makes you more money is if you sell your stock. I personally never plan to sell my BTI stock because it pays me to own it. Plus if I sell it, I have to put that money into another company which is more risk. More research more time.

[@augustus331]

BTI has actually issued 216 million shares in the last five years. The cash raised from share issuances pays for the extreme dividend and I think that's the strategy, to lower the price of the share and pay out investors through dividends.

[@EverythingMoney]

Good point...thanks for sharing your views - GC

[@kurniawanms2]

I do not know what you are smoking. This is not right. BTI issued more shares and took debts in 2017 & 2018 to finance Reynolds acquisition for $49B USD. The number of outstanding shares for BTI has decreased from 2287M in 2020 to 2267M in 2022. BTI launched £2B buyback in 2022 but BTI halted buyback this year as they will prioritize debt repayment. BTI FCF is $12.3B Dividend paid $6.1B. BTI does not need to issue shares to pay for dividends. Their FCF covers the dividend. Payout ratio is 60%. Still acceptable for sin stocks.

[@thegamerboneless2864]

You guys should start a small community brokerage account, and you can continue to go over your daily stocks and the community favorites, and the ones your software shows a good investment, buy a few shares, quarterly and yearly you go over your P/L, and you can point out why and what your data showed you and the outcome of it, where it worked and didn’t, how to and what to improve, so the community can make better decisions. ❤😂

[@EverythingMoney]

Sounds like a solid plan...thanks for following us - GC

[@majordelays4909]

Etoro account allows followers

[@dstripedape978]

Everything Money ETF, vs. meet Kevin ETF in a caged death match 😅😅

[@ArthurWeghorst]

Roughly $120K in my portfolio are in tech/TSLA stocks, can I get an advice on any other stocks that I can acquire to diversify my reserve across multiple markets while creating a comprehensive portfolio allocation that balances my concerns of risk aversion and returns that meet yearly inflation.

[@jamescryptoguru-md9nv]

The market is volatile at this time, hence i will suggest you get yourself a financial-advisor that can provide you with entry and exit points on the shares/ETF you focus on.

[@LeticiaOmi]

@@jamescryptoguru-md9nv very true, I started investing before the pandemic and that same year I pulled a profit of about $600k with no prior investing experience, basically all I was doing was seeking guidance from a financial-advisorr, you can be passively involved with the aid of a professional.

[@ErikBotheimLindtheim]

@@LeticiaOmi wow ,that’s stirring! Do you mind connecting me to your advisor please. I desperately need one to diversified my portfolio.

[@LeticiaOmi]

@@ErikBotheimLindtheim ELISE MARIE TERRY

[@LeticiaOmi]

That's my licensed Financial advisor you can easily look her up, Thank me later.

[@FabiWann]

Imperial Brands is also interesting

[@bronetoxa3911]

if fed decrease rate it will be highter in price

[@mmar161]

Buy and put in Roth if you can

[@martinhebert1774]

In future if you could leave on dark screen on stock analyzer, hard to see on white screen….food for thought

[@jayfreedom]

Why they issue shares in 2016?

[@kurniawanms2]

2017 and 2018 to acquire Reynolds for $49B

[@electricvolpe]

Please do a video on Sony, big company that is diversified in many different business sectors.

[@EverythingMoney]

Soon - GC

[@cesarbojorquez7418]

Keep the consistency providing great value videos. Thanks

[@joephysics5469]

Where do they do the most business? How will that effect revenue if a global recession / depression continues to develop?

[@kurniawanms2]

It is a sin stock. BTI sells famous Dunhill, Ken, Lucky Strike, Camel cigarettes all over the world. They also sell nicotine, vape, e-cigarettes, heated tobacco products everywhere. Recession does not matter. People smoke in good times and bad times. It is an addicted product.

[@bradbradman6050]

Why cancel the dividend when people who own shares could just buy more themselves?

[@jacksyr9926]

Thank you Great video and excellent DD

[@Maryann-hk4mr]

omg....BTI crashed big today.... Now what ????

[@houseofvideozz]

Yeah, I thought about opening my own farm, but its a long and complicated process. Im just investing in Cannafarm ltd farms and earning every day

[@mrhulls]

The multiples are too high, if today it's 7 you cna t start at 10. I would do 5, 7 and 9 for pe

[@Hyper1555]

Also bull case: - new categories are profitable in 2024 and higher margin I believe - high insider ownership, they want the company to do well! - low multiple relative to peers without lower fundamentals - old company and has a low pe compared to historical mean Little bear case: - free cashflow is higher, but income lower due to inflation pricing, but can't be sustained to offset the lower volumes. Net income lower due to the higher costs of non profitable new categories and higher material costs since covid

[@EverythingMoney]

Great stuff...thanks for sharing - GC

[@arbitrage-technologies487]

love BATS

[@hollyrushlow5108]

Paul leave my dividends alone. I don’t want to sell my stock to capture my profits. Not everyone can wait for years on growth investing.

[@daanmeier6681]

MO on top !

[@kurniawanms2]

maybe but MO has no international exposure. Any legislation change from US govt will seriously affect MO business

[@carl4300]

Letss Go!!!

[@EverythingMoney]

Nice one my man - GC

[@owaisaa1188]

153B of total assets and 48B out of that is goodwill. plus a pile of debt with declining business model. I mean wth.

[@djpettijohn]

The pitch at 11:20 for the software definitely sounds a lot like Jason Fladlien lol

[@EverythingMoney]

Cool...thanks for the note - GC

[@journeyman_15]

If they cancelled the dividend their share will go down big

[@andreivoicu6239]

Finally!

[@charlesnorman8019]

Thumbnail looks like late 2020 lol

[@UnknownTomorrow]

REASON: to not buy back shares. Lawsuits - the more money they have on the books, the higher lawsuits are able to take from tobacco companies and the share holders. Companies like that (ethically questionable) don't buy back shares for a reason.

[@Gay4Jesus]

Never thought of that but that’s a valid point. So they need cash on hand to afford the lawsuits?

[@UnknownTomorrow]

@@Gay4Jesus if lawsuit risky companies have too much cash on hand, it make it easier to go after more money since the company is "rich". So they try to distribute the money instead to the share holders. If they lost a lawsuit, then the prosecution can't go after the share holders and get extra money. The higher dividends probably helps shareholders feel better since they make money every dividend payout, to help calm and legal risk the company could suffer.

[@catalincioponea]

Stop the dividend, buyback the shares. If investors sell their stock because of the dividend cut, buyback even more shares at a better price. 🧐

[@EverythingMoney]

Good strategy my man...especially when the stock is undervalued 😉- GC

[@kurniawanms2]

People buy sin stocks for high yield income not capital appreciation. They depend on high yield to generate cash. If you want share buyback, buy $AAPL or $MSFT stock instead. BTI payout ratio is 60%. Relatively low compared to PMI or MO

[@Tell_It_Right]

If they buy back cheap shares, won't they just dilute when the stock price rises? Honest question.

[@mowersinmowtion1]

SDOT!

[@EverythingMoney]

Why? - GC

[@MaddieHelga]

Honestly I still don't understand the reason why my trader (Caitlyn Natasha Hughes) charges me 20% of my profit after the end of my weekly trade. I've been negotiating with her for about 15 months, but she keeps taking a percentage from me, which is very sad. I wish I could get a better trader who won't charge me a dime.

[@modikcatie]

you mean you have a professional trader who trade's for you and makes profit for you. and you pay her 20% and you take the remaining after every trade?

[@MaddieHelga]

@@modikcatie yes exactly 💯 at least she should consider the fact that I have been working with her for more than a year now

[@modikcatie]

please how may I reach her so I can invest with her even if she charges me 30%/40% and I take the remaining i will be okay as long as I get my money and profit back.

[@MaddieHelga]

I appreciate the fact that she is helping me and my family, but the charges. last week my profit of $14,870 and what she sent to my Binance was $11,396.

[@nopenope6012]

down 20% but really only down 4% with that dividend :)

[@EverythingMoney]

Cool....best of luck my man - GC

[@ElginChil4589]

I don’t understand why you continually say cut the dividend and by back more shares!? You are assuming that all investors want to be invested in this or any company for 10+ years! Some investors only want to earn the income for a small period of time (five years or less) and then move onto another investment. Can you please elaborate on my point.

[@ElginChil4589]

You answered my question in the video! I guess that’s why you should watch the whole video before leaving a comment! Lol. But if somebody is a high net worth/income individual, and they only want to eat the dividends for a year or two, I still would prefer the income versus waiting on the share price appreciation.

[@SwanteeSwe]

10% dividend yield is too high. It is that high for a reason and never a good one. Dividend is also unstable. For once I agree to buy back shares. Book value is 41USD per share. Here you can really buy a dollar for less than a dollar (32USD) and again there is probably a reason for that. I stand this one out.

[@EverythingMoney]

Fair enough....thanks for following us - GC

[@kurniawanms2]

I do not know where you get 10% yield. Dividend is $2.80 so at the current price of $32, it is about 8.37%. Google it. This is in British pound so the dividend varies based on currency flactuation

[@robyn_southafrica]

Randomly came across this company and Altria Group the other day and I'm not a smoker so i know nothing about the industry, but i get random extra income and decided to buy into both companies and plan to hold for 5 years max before dumping it, seeing as how its a declining industry. If i win, great, if i lose, well the money I'm putting in isn't gonna hurt me 😅 (probably a dumb way of investing i know, but you win some you lose some, maybe)

[@almightyrick5689]

Im in healthcare smoking is declining but are population has increased to the point were the new smoker are making up for the decline, it is taught in literature when we go over the respiratory system always a point that the professors bring up

[@diablovortex]

Cimmunity wants to buy but mr Paul will say its too expensive and buy ot at 2 $

[@TurnupAC]

If investing is hard, try quitting smoking!

[@YB-eg3rj]

Legal drugs, legal addictions 🤑🤑

[@resipsaloquitur1775]

All of these tobacco companies will get involved with cannabis in some form, way or fashion.

[@EverythingMoney]

Possibly...we will see...thanks for the note - GC

[@WhitneyPerry-t5q]

Williams Frank Lewis Kimberly Gonzalez Mark

[@saiprasannabaskaran9038]

If investing is about owning a business, why would you want to own a business that promotes an industry that is scientifically proven to deteriorate people's health? I think it would be a good video idea for Paul and co to talk about their ethics and how value investors approach these kind of social dilemmas (ex: investing in Oil, CocaCola, Cigarettes, Weapons)

[@Tell_It_Right]

Are you saying ppl shouldn't invest in companies that produce unhealthy things? Do you know how many companies sell unhealthy things? If everyone stopped investing in these companies, the world's economy would crash in about 1 week.

[@saiprasannabaskaran9038]

@@Tell_It_Right Well I'm sure people would find other things to invest in. If we gave enough investment to healthy things that may not be a bad idea. Also unhealthy is one thing, but I feel some things are just on the extreme end of the unethical spectrum. Just my thoughts. Warren buffet is always asked this question btw, so I would love to hear other value investors thoughts on this.

[@victorcoda]

Not with such high dividends

[@Daniel-ld3zi]

​@@saiprasannabaskaran9038 you probably shouldn't invest in SP500 then since it includes some unethical companies. Also, do you own Apple? They've had some child labor abuses. At least with tobacco, the people know and choose to smoke.

[@CheatingStoriesWithChinwe]

💕

[@kalash386]

Wtf fr thought finally wba, wrong pe

[@EverythingMoney]

Thanks for sharing - GC

[@riverraven7359]

Lost me as soon as i heard the name

[@DerLaessigerZocker]

Cut the dividend half , hope share price decreases significantly , and then buy back even cheaper shares XD

[@dancingdiamondsjewellersltd]

I will never buy this stock only because I'm in the 🇬🇧 as our prime minister is going to put ban on tobacco on the upcoming generation, this will drive the revenue lower, less people smoking equals less profit which then equals less growth which then means lower stock valuation. It could be different for you because your in 🇺🇸 and I don't think you lot have that law or ban in place 💎🔋📃🖊

[@EverythingMoney]

Fair enough ....thanks for the note pal - GC

[@davidbest8912]

Scrap the dividend and pay back the debt..

[@cheynebest7028]

Would have to leave my morals in a box so they lose steam and die slightly quicker to make this work. Thats a no for me dog. Don't wish them well and may god have mercy on their soul. I would however fully support a transition into medical grade Marijuana and definitely something that needs to be expanded in our mental health crisis... psilocybin mushroom treatments. There are no goos options there however.

[@sakdab]

Tobacco companies are the only companies I refuse to own. I have owned oil, guns and casinos. The only industry I have any moral scruples with is tobacco. It is addictive poison which has no real impact on any productive element of humanity. It is crazy that it is even a thing. I see no future in cigarettes or other nicotine products, but I am incredibly biased on my view. Atleast there aren't that many tobacco companies and hopefully it is a dying sector, which is another reason I refuse to invest in them.

[@grantp4022]

So is white refined sugar, and processed fatty foods, that cause diabetes, and heart attacks, that are really much worse. Guns are bad as well. So, if your trying to save the world, it's best to stay out of investing. Along with this, a lot of countries like Canada have now legalized Pot, which also is very unhealthy.

[@rshah74]

Consuming Tobacco is unhealthy. Do we want to own a company which creates negative impact on society?

[@grantp4022]

So is white refined sugar, and processed fatty foods, that cause diabetes, and heart attacks, that are really much worse. Guns are bad as well. So, if your trying to save the world, it's best to stay out of investing. Along with this, a lot of countries like Canada have now legalized Pot, which also is very unhealthy.

[@mihai981]

This sector is dead already. Why not invest in the future instead. Cannabis is the best option...Tilray, Acb, Cgc, Sndl.

[@EverythingMoney]

Maybe....but how is the financila statement and balance sheet of those companies? 💁‍♂️- GC

[@kurniawanms2]

It is dying in developed nations but it is growing very fast in developing nations & 3rd world countries. BTI also diversifies into vape, e-cigarettes, heated tobacco products for developed nations.