Ted Oakley - Oxbow Advisors - Interview Series 2024 - Jim Bianco - May 13, 2024

Ted Oakley interviews Jim Bianco of Bianco Research on interest rates, bond investing, stock investing, and balanced investing.
Visit www.oxbowadvisors.com/2023-books for a complimentary copy of Ted Oakley's new book "Stay Rich with a Balanced Portfolio" Link: oxbowadvisors.com/balanced-po...
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Intro - 0:00
Government & Consumer Spending - 1:21
Federal Reserve - 10:00
Economic Weakness & Unemployment - 14:15
Effects of Work From Home - 17:12
Consumer Spending - 20:20
Stock Market Euphoria - 22:36
Balanced Investing - 27:50
Rate Outlook - 34:15
Are Rate Changes Worth Chasing? - 36:26
Risk vs Return Expectations - 39:10
Outro - 42:03

[@mjbucar]

An excellent video with Ted Oakley and Jim Bianco. Two (2) very insightful investor minds at once. Thank you.

[@richdilorenzo8145]

Thanks once again Ted Oakley. Much appreciated.

[@eh7599]

Thanks Jim and Ted

[@barrycalvert8219]

Bianco is still in old data capture. I spend 97% of my income on things I have to buy. In 2018 I spent 94% on things I had to buy. Nothing has changed except price, inflation. Home owners, and Car insurance for my family and extended family has gone up 30%. That is 2% our income up from 1.5% . Yes, we spend, because we have too. It is not extended vacations. That happens for the 93 - 99% tile

[@JONINOTORUS]

A superb conversation from 2 very nice and wise gentlemen.

[@revpgesqredux]

Thanks for the breath of sanity and fresh air... Even this month's statistics are just stringing everyone along... Cuts are going to be few and far between and maybe not at all.... Tactical. As the final lumber on .

[@detectiveofmoneypolitics]

Economic investigator Frank G Melbourne Australia is following this informative content cheers Frank 😊

[@eh7599]

Great guest

[@haldriver1378]

Thanks Ted!

[@abrahamcale3659]

Excellent interview. Thank you Ted!

[@jenniferhahn7806]

Working from home saves me wear and tear on my vehicle as well as gas money, I make lunch at home, I need less work clothing and dry cleaning. I make dinner from home instead of ordering since I don't have to commute. And I have much less stress.

[@jcgoogle1808]

It's not all about you. If the business can't survive paying you to be less productive at home,.. you won't be able to work from home. "Pay people MORE to come back to the office"? So inflation goes higher? The agreement to pay them before wasn't to work from home. How about the business just investing in AI,.. and they can sit at home earning nothing? What? there was no agreement to be replaced with AI? Well there is now.

[@JamesG1126]

Work from home is for lazy slobs who don't want to shower and snack all day while playing video games.

[@Lieutenant_Dan]

Thank you once again for the informative and intelligent content. It is much appreciated.

[@richdilorenzo8145]

I recently read that only half or so of the money authorzied in the huge spending bills has actually gone out the door, and the combination of that with MORE spending is juicing the economic numbers and of course the stock market.

[@revpgesqredux]

So the increase from 94% to 97%... Spending of the consumer... Is due to higher prices not revenge travel...

[@barrycalvert8219]

85% of families in America cannot afford a vacation. Up 45% from 1995.

[@michaelfelli7661]

Sure they can. It's called Credit Cards.

[@markz.5891]

What kind of a vacation?

[@adrianfranco1028]

Forsure No one gets paid taking time off from your two part time jobs

[@nonexistent5030]

My second job is my vacation from my first.

[@aaron___6014]

Man, that's 30 years. I'm sure that number has changed wildly over that time. And a weekend way costs very little. A week at Sandals costs a ton!

[@jays9870]

Great discussion; thanks you both

[@Casey-rr7th]

Great content as usual

[@123svx]

Can't beat the Market Algorithm, dont even try. Its been in control since i can remember.

[@richdilorenzo8145]

In addition, in a taxable account with treasuries you pay no state tax if you happen to live in a state that has one.

[@RobWilliams007]

Losing full time jobs - people taking 2 or 3 jobs and people retiring early. That’s why unemployment is low. But transactional type jobs is a very good point.

[@stephenbush7200]

I believe the thinking behind the massive government spending is different now. While some that wanted to spend like this have been around all my life, they have been countered by those who advocated smaller government with more freedom and personal responsibility. Now I think that what is prevailing in our society, and others in the West, is different and that shift has been a long time coming. Those who want to spend enormous amounts are now in the much greater majority, and their reason for doing it is not as much to stimulate the economy as it to break down the dollar and displace old American culture, economic principles and nationalism. The people who are running things now have long been chipping away at the mission and principles of old America in particular, especially since the end of World War II. When they realized they could not defeat America militarily, they changed their tactics. They are heading us toward a new world order where "Washington" and all its power and influence is located somewhere else.

[@jcgoogle1808]

Absolutely the unnecessary spending (nay stealing from tax payers) by this senile ole joe admin and the demcorats is a whole new paradigm shift in deficit spending. If the economy is so great,..as they claim,... why the need to deficit spend $2 to $3 trillion each year??? Why is college debt being forgiven,... no,.. passed on to others who either paid of their college debt or didn't go to college because they couldn't afford it. Answer,... to try to buy an election,.. even if they have to bankrupt and destroy America and the dollar to do it,

[@richdilorenzo8145]

The adoption by those in current positions of power, (Yellen et al) of Modern Monetary Theory, MMT have thrown out any last vestiges of Keynesianism. They ALWAYS hated to cut back spending when the economy was strong as Keynes directed, but with the adopiion of MMT they have COMPLETELY thrown out any pretense that it is even necessary. Ergo, this is NOT Keynesianism at all. At least the past had SOME belief that it might be a good idea to cut back as Jim mentions.

[@jcgoogle1808]

Exactly. This insane MMT isn't your father's, your grandfather's, or your great grandfather's,... Keynesian. This is buy the lection at whatever the cost,.. even if we have to bankrupt and destroy the country to do it.

[@richdilorenzo8145]

Hey Jim: How about an alternative of 60% bonds and 25% gold and 15% Bitcoin!!!

[@Sergio_21M]

Funny Bianco doesnt mention the details of jobs numbers, way skewed towards part-time and 2nd jobs.

[@richdilorenzo8145]

It can't be helped of course, but when they speak of how great everything is going for stocks etc., and how great the economy is we should remember that fully 1/2 half the population of the country is NOT participating in the great new roaring twenties.

[@JamesG1126]

I don't care about the 1/2 who are barely surviving. That's their fault. I care about me.

[@richdilorenzo8145]

So Jim, Ted too, when you speak of 5% + returns on Treasuries, that is of course pre tax. So, with these higher for longer rates, what do you see as actual return net of inflation for the next few years? Are you actually preserving your purchasing power? What good is 5% pre tax if inflation is running at 4%? Better than an inversion of those no doubt, but wealth building???

[@JamesG1126]

Buy calls on meme stocks.

[@0mar9]

Ted is going to spend the whole decade waiting for the crash

[@Timothy_Pitt]

Ouch!

[@scott7521]

And you'll spend 20 years digging out of it.

[@conduit242]

He’s already spent a decade doing that

[@jcgoogle1808]

@@conduit242 That would explain his wealth.

[@vincentmurphy9252]

Hate to say it anyone who thought 6-7cuts were coming should be fired - I mean how in hell could they lower The rates are too low as it is they should’ve high 6 or 7 minimum

[@JamesG1126]

Ted has sat in t-bills during one of history's great bull markets. One of the biggest boners in money management history.

[@nohopeequalsnofear3242]

If people are scared from being in the bond market, then they should blame themselves. Only a fool would buy billions of dollars in treasury bonds earning zero to one percent. Now its at 4.6%. Thats a 60% lose if your forced to sell. And many failing banks were forced to sell.

[@jcgoogle1808]

"Pay people MORE to come back to the office"? So inflation goes higher? The agreement to pay them before wasn't to work from home. How about the business just investing in AI,.. and they can sit at home earning nothing? What? there was no agreement to be replaced with AI? Well there is now.