Palantir $PLTR Stock: Massive Stock Based Compensation - A Warning

Alarmingly high stock based compensation risks the dilution of future earnings growth. How you can lose money while the company succussed. We dive into the premium charged for this growth monster and while earnings are expected to grow more than 2,000% over the coming year, this stock seems to price all that growth in. How to play Palantir $PLTR?
"Long ago, Ben Graham taught me that 'Price is what you pay; value is what you get.' Whether we're talking about socks or stocks, I like buying quality merchandise when it is marked down." - Warren Buffett
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All opinions expressed by Cameron Stewart at Rational Investing with Cameron Stewart, CFA or on Cashflowinvestingpro.com are solely Mr. Stewart’s opinions. You should not treat any opinion expressed by Mr. Stewart as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of his opinion. Mr. Stewart’s statements and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Mr. Stewart does not guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment discussed on this show. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investors may get back less than invested. Investments or strategies mentioned on this show may not be suitable for you. This material does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs and is not intended as recommendations appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies mentioned on this show. Before acting on information on this show, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser.
#stockmarket #stockanalysis #stockmarket2023 #stockmarketcrash #rationalivesting #investingforbeginners #recession2023 #stockmarketforbeginners #stocks #dividendstocks

[@everceen]

I’m well positioned with good blue chip companies and A.I stocks but I know crash is inevitable. Intend buying $200K worth of Plantir soon, some experts say it's the next Nvidia.

[@natetomholt47]

The question is, would I sell any of my NVDA shares to buy PLTR? No I will not

[@arlenehill4ril]

Personally, I prefer to invest in large cap companies which have economic moats, good cash flow and strong balance sheets such as AAPL, SCHD, NVDA and Barclays.

[@LaurelCandice]

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Karen Lynne Chess is the licensed advisor I use. Just google the name and you'd find necessary deets. To be honest, I almost didn't buy the idea of letting someone handle growing my finance, but so glad I did.

[@FKAS8410]

Cameron is a certified Excel BEAST!!!

[@aldogeron8509]

Watching the market's ups and downs shows how quickly things can change. In the market, strategic, informed trading isn't a choice; it's a must. Remember, caution is as crucial as ambition here. This dedication to continuous learning is inspiring...i have delve deeply into active trading and managed to grow a nest egg of around 127k to a decent 532k... I'm especially grateful to Jane Nina Pickett, whose deep expertise and traditional trading acumen have been invaluable in this challenging, ever-evolving financial landscape..

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Thanks for sharing, I just did a web check with her full names mentioned

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[@jaeme677]

$3.6 billion in cash and AIP not even monetized yet.

[@philipp274]

Funny how nobody knows exactly what Palantir does, but everybody seems so sure they're gonna be huge in 10 years. They have almost the same market cap as BAT which is making more than 10 billion in free cash flow every year. That's not revenue, but FREE CASH.

[@joesmith-pb1vn]

Thx for the models. Investing takes more than just being able to run financial models and justifying PE ratios. Amazon, nvdia were $ losing companies for over a decade before the hockey 🏒 stick move. One thing Pltr has in common is investing in talent (in this case via SBC). Pltr has 1st mover advantage in AI. The financials will work itself out once they achieve their objective. Good luck investing.

[@tonimontana5153]

Thanks Cameron for your very good work!

[@luckyriver77]

Compensation based on performance!!!!!=motivation

[@mervpag6474]

A good excercise! I disagree with the forecast of revenue growth. It's reaccelarating.

[@jellevanurk60]

Great stuff again! Huge fan of your video's. Bought WBD and CVS mainly based on your analisys. Quote "Price is what you pay, value is what you get" is one of my favorites.

[@azulsimmons1040]

PLTR is a great business, but that valuation has always kept me away too.

[@mtuand84]

Great business doesn't come cheap sometimes😁

[@azulsimmons1040]

@@mtuand84 Not looking for cheap, looking for an even reasonable valuation which is not PLTR right now.

[@Tacobell2000]

This is well thought out. I loved the Excel spreadsheet analysis. You concluded, based on numbers, that this is a stock to pass on, with lots of downside and minimal upside-$37 in 2033. I'm in the tech field, and AIP offers companies actionable insights once installed, making them nimbler and more profitable. This benefit, realized after their bootcamp, isn't factored in. Also, hallway chatter about Palantir from the big 7 isn't considered. I'm a betting man, and I'm increasing my position on Palantir.

[@greg5386]

Excellent analysis & spreadsheet manipulation, Cameron!

[@francesco.b83]

Great company long term winner

[@resipsaloquitur1775]

I was buying PLTR at prices between $5-15 per share dollar-cost-averaging. I have covered calls out on it at $40, if they get exercised away I won't lose any sleep.

[@hibatt]

I would love for you to do this analysis but using data from Amazon in 2004 and then compare what reality was.

[@aleksi9470]

I would love to get a video from you teaching how you use excel so efficiently

[@Ravencroft81]

Criticizing stocks like Palantir is like criticizing crypto. You get destroyed by the cultists without any valid arguments or generic BS, because these stocks like crypto live and grow on rep, pump and momentum. Great company, ridiculous high valuations.

[@TheCheapGamer]

Yeah. That's why you have CLOWNS like you to defend them.

[@aightm8]

A company for insiders

[@CstewartCFA]

@@aightm8 very true

[@francesco.b83]

I have been tracking them. Institutional Owners 1573 total.. this company will be huge in the future

[@PLTR2500]

I highly think your revenue forecast is wrong. As few mentioned growth has reaccelerated and their AIP bootcamp growth strategy is something they have never seen in the 20 years of the companys history. They went from 500 bootcamps last year (2 quarters) to doing 600+ in the 1st quarter of 2024. They are just getting into the commercial segment, where their revenue before used to be dominated by government and now look at the growth of their commercial revenue. (45-70% based on what past data you look at). Also why value a stock based on a PE multiple when they just went profitable? Finally, it seems that you have never followed this company closely so its easy for you to add what ever growth rate based on past data and not what is being cooked at the company. aka bootcamps and hording in as much as commercial clients by offering their products for free where they are dependent on their product and charging whatever fee they want down the road.

[@baarbacoa]

He's working off their published numbers. Until their fillings show they have established a consistently higher growth rate, it's speculation. BTW I'm a Palantir stockholder. I'm speculating on this as well. But ultimately they have to prove it to the market

[@PLTR2500]

@@baarbacoa I disagree. Looking at backward data only works for established companies that have stable growth like Coca-Cola, that make it easy to predict the future financials. In case of Palantir, you cannot predict that growth is going to slow when they just started boot camps that have been scaling like crazy because they don’t know what do with the demand (based on recent comment by Alex Karp)along with AI being the next big. He is basically basing it off past data without knowing anything about the companies present and future prospects and that to me is not how you value companies like palantir. I also too have 6 figures palantir position.

[@PLTR2500]

@@baarbacoa also this is the same thinking “Ticker Symbol You” had and was bearish because he was not up to date with recent company’s prospects and changed his mind on the company due to AIP. Sorry for long post, not fond with analyst that give out at analysis that doesn’t make any sense.had I listened to any analysts back when this stock was in the gutter, I would not have 4x return on some of my shares.

[@baarbacoa]

@@PLTR2500 You're advocating speculating in stocks on the basis of FOMO. Which is a good way to lose everything.

[@baarbacoa]

@@PLTR2500Ticker Symbol You is a tech genius. Demanding evidence is also part and parcel to good science, engineering, and project management. Besides, what did Warren Buffett say are the rules of investing? "The first rule of an investment is don't lose [money]. And the second rule of an investment is don't forget the first rule. And that's all the rules there are.” That basically requires evidence based investing.

[@TimNedvěd]

Hello Cameron, great video yet again. Would you be willing to do ABBV or ALL again?

[@Koi-addict33]

My issue with them is the system i used in the military was from them and it cost a fortune and was trash

[@paulkim5322]

Dude how do I become a spreadsheet excel master like you?

[@maxperass3900]

Hello Cameron . Any chance you make another video on INTC if you have time please ? I'm curious to know what you reckon about the company and their project since the last report came out . Thanks !

[@SpliffMeister3000]

10 year out pltr will be a monster. End of story. Only . Question is this bubble valuation if so can be cisco 2.0

[@nk2012]

Nice. Can you do ASTS next?

[@KamaJiuJitsu]

Thank you for this

[@mrhulls]

For me it is a no go too. A company that I think could be of your interest is EW, they are the leader in usa and jaoan for heart valves. It was very overvalued till yesterday

[@galponeroserial]

I was watching several of your videos, amazing analysis and thanks for sharing. I was doing DD of PFE (Pfizer) stock, looks like it is starting to have some impulse.

[@fluffhead917]

Their SBC has always been high.. it should be trending down as time goes on. Hopefully..🍺

[@nk2012]

Your a numbers guy. I get it. But also whats like it out there?

[@JD-im4wu]

Mr. EBITDA

[@mtuand84]

Without looking at the company technology you may miss one of generational investments. They have one the best talent the reason for the SBC which is decreasing. I have seen a lot of videos like this in the past because they just look at the financial and missed the stock at $6, $10, and $15 and later regret how transformative their technology was after more DD :)

[@CstewartCFA]

@@mtuand84 totally true. I can’t price it so I don’t really feel comfortable buying it

[@rman52]

Massive stock based compensation? That's funny. They have the best AI development team in the industry. To do that, they have to pay more via compensation. After that you showed you know nothing about their business model or what they do. How in the world could you value their business. By simple accounting? Ridiculous.

[@mtuand84]

This is what happen when they use excel that many missed at $6, $10, and $15.

[@dimzoll3669]

Next CAVA

[@chunwong7205]

Can you do a deep dive on AMAT?

[@peymanhm5650]

Thx for your time and effort, I really enjoyed 👏🏻. I would like to see some REITs analysis as well. I think you never covered a REIT in your channel. Vici, Prologis, O? ✌🏻

[@ildefonsovilar]

$EQIX

[@Anellida]

I know nothing about trading /investment and l'm keen on getting started. What are some strategies to get started with?

[@MichaelKennedy-gq6xp]

As a beginner, it's essential for you to have a mentor to keep you accountable. I'm guided by a widely known crypto consultant

[@MichaelKennedy-gq6xp]

Mrs Nancy Williams Laplace

[@ParmeliaJohnson]

The first step to successful investment is figuring your goals and risk tolerance either on your own or with the help of a financial professional but it's very advisable you make use of professional

[@Honorato-vrp]

This is correct, Nancy's strategy has normalized winning trades for me also and it’s a huge milestone for me looking back to how it all started..

[@MariaMartins-pq8si]

Nancy is considered a key Crypto Strategist with one of the best copy Trading Portfolios and also very active in the cryptocurrency space.

[@abhishekcastelino]

PayPal update, whenever you get a chance. It's looking undervalued based on historicals

[@supaflydann]

Brilliant content

[@jpducati916]

Great job

[@Kevin-fh2kx]

Hey Cameron ! Do you teach how to do this one pager?

[@CstewartCFA]

@@Kevin-fh2kx yes. Take my investing course, you’ll make a 1 page

[@Kevin-fh2kx]

@@CstewartCFA Thank you ! Are you teaching how to create our own with cashflow insider ?

[@davidraphael1324]

let me just take this stock and plop it in the too hard pile for me 😀to understand, maybe one day who knows.

[@midwestcannabis]

Party On 🥳✌️

[@out4fun580]

Is $SQ the same story?

[@JD-im4wu]

i always knew palantir was a grimey company i cant understand y ppl invest in it

[@Purplebass]

I think your future growth forecasts are low. I believe the goal is to get back to a 30% growth and if you listen to the CEO seems like they are more worried about bringing in as many customers as they can right now and will worry about monetization later I think 3,000,000,000 in 10 years is very low.

[@aightm8]

@@Purplebass what about margin of safety. This company is completely opaque. What exactly do they do - without just resorting to jargon and buzzwords? Management will always give very positive long term growth assumptions. Technology moves quickly and new disruptors come along every year

[@Purplebass]

@@aightm8 The best way to understand what Palantir does is to watch their AIP conferences where their customers present the solutions that was created for their companies. Their customers are jumping at the opportunity to go to these conferences and present for palantir. Palantir is beyond large language models like snowflake but you really need to watch the AIP conferences to get a good grasp on what they are doing and how

[@Purplebass]

@@aightm8 I think I could make an analogy that would make a lot of sense if you think about CNC machines, they do the job of a laborer as you can put material on the machine and it will cut out holes and designs for faster times than a human could do it by hand with hand tools Pier doesn’t replace the Manuel laborer in a way replaces the desk decision maker if you listen to the hospitals that they’ve worked with and how it is helped them. It takes the role of management in making decisions. But like I said, just watching the AIP con will give you a much clearer understanding of what they do

[@aightm8]

@@Purplebass I understand. But what you're basically saying is "automation", which is vague. I can explain how Microsoft makes money and what business efficiencies and automations they provide. Because they aren't an opaque business. It's literally impossible to make any kind of reasonable growth assumption with a business you don't understand. And it also makes it impossible to identify a competitive advantage, because without one competitors will enter the space and drive down margins

[@Purplebass]

@@aightm8 the only way to understand this business is to listen to every interview with the CEO and watch the AIP conferences where their customers praise the company and show off what the company has done for them. It’s an entirely new industry, so it is hard to describe and hard to classify but when you spend hours listening to these interviews and what not then you start to understand that they are far far ahead of anyone else in the data analytics field companies like snowflake and data dog are far behind

[@bobathedog]

Could you do $CCL or $NCLH next?? ❤❤

[@bobathedog]

So much potential with debt payments coming as a result of rates coming down. ITS GOLD 🎉

[@MrSunys]

How is your "cashflow machine" CVS doing? :)

[@CstewartCFA]

@@MrSunys ya true

[@singhka88]

Might buy at $5 lol

[@SpliffMeister3000]

High Tech companies pay in stock and they have seen lotss of growth. So why not same fo pltr?

[@SpliffMeister3000]

Thay why u were suppose to buy at 6.... not 30. This video is irrelevant as a year too late lol.

[@fredmhernandez]

Ai

[@musicianofkeyboard]

The only thing market provides is the liquidity 😅😅

[@icefishing6592]

Could you do a Planet 13 and honest analysis please?

[@kevinluxford3660]

Your all about assumptions

[@dakel7]

Let's revisit pypl and cvs

[@francesco.b83]

Sorry but i not I agree… with you… this company will be more the what you said…

[@NoRegertsHere]

Have you got numbers to support?

[@francesco.b83]

@@NoRegertsHere Yes dude

[@ildefonsovilar]

I hate this company

[@iseliercamacho7256]

Well, you have thousands to choose from, don’t ya?

[@xdognatex9897]

LOL this will age like milk.

[@yljydpfkyu2738]

Why? No company in the whole universe help to protect the democracy and human right like Palantir does.