Patience! The Real Estate buy of your lifetime is coming!

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The Timing Model is very clear that the Real Estate Market has Peaked! It means it is not going higher for a long time. The Cycle completion is most evident in the Commercial Space and huge losses are going to be incurred.
The Spring Market will probably be the last good market; if you need to sell, do it now!
I want to your Business. We love working with clients and earning commission. However, we do not NEED your business to pay our bills or make the mortgage payment. We are free to work on your behalf.
Sir Issac Newton bought into the South Sea Bubble early, made gains, and then exited the market. His friends rode the Bubble and were making enormous gains which caused Newton to enter the Market again at the worst possible time. He rode the bubble down and exited with enormous losses. He died a Pauper. This is human nature.
Patience is now required. If you purchase now, you risk losing 30% or more that may take 5-10 years to recover.
However, if you are patient for the next 12-18 months, you might be able to have a Life Changing Oportunity.
I am encouraging Investors in Endangered Cities to move their investments to better markets via an IRC 1031 Tax deferred exchange. This is very inexpensive and does not trigger a tax implication.
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[@Cody62]

I agree there must be a market correction, and everyone will feel it to a certain degree. Some locales will feel it more than others. You mention Austin, Florida and Phoenix. I agree parts of these markets are already slowing down. Builders are offering incentives to sell and they have suspended new construction for now.

[@rachelk8368]

What about Canada? As a young person I have no hope for a future in this country.

[@michaeldouville690]

Thank you for your comment. The Real Estate Cycle seems to be a Global Phenomenon. I do not follow Canada's timing; however, it appears the Market is highly leveraged, Rates are trending up, and Inflation is evident. Commercial Properties are in trouble and the banks that lent the funds are at Huge Risk! These are Hallmarks of a topping process. My belief is better pricing and entry points are highly probable. Rates will not save the RE Asset class; waiting, saving, and paying off debts looks to have very little downside. Michael Douville

[@karenpasquini906]

Do you think Sedona will drop-in value as well? Sarasota Florida is on my radar as well. Maybe I should contact you before I go out there for some potential buying opportunities

[@michaeldouville690]

Thank you for your comment. There is only one Sedona and Beauty ALWAYS is in demand! Unfortunately, no one will be immune. The function of Recessions and Cycle Completions is to clear the malinvestments so Capital can be allocated better. Sedona has limited resource; therefore, it should be a very good long-term investment. BTW, I have speaking engagements in Phoenix May and June. Michael Douville

[@jfk1998]

I bought my first real estate in 2001. And have bought 10 since. The only factor to make real estate go down is unemployment. In 2008 and there after unemployment was at 10 percent. We are very far from that. Maybe later in the future but we are years away. Arizona has gone up so much because of the huge inflex of CA people. Ca people sell for a million and buy a very nice house for half of that.

[@michaeldouville690]

Thank you for your thoughtful comments. I completely agree with you; I am just having trouble with the data. It seems to be "Seasonally Adjusted" or "Annually Seasonally Adjusted" and then jobs are re-calibrated a few weeks later, so far, adjusted DOWN! There is also trouble with what constitutes employment? 3 hours a week for a delivery food service? The Charts have been showing "Full-Time employment is shedding jobs and Part-Time is exploding. Lose a 40-hour job and find two 20-hour jobs; is that counted twice? The Federal Revenue tax revenue from employees is significantly lower than last year indicating lower wage earnings and the WARN notices for announcing layoffs are prevalent in all 50 states. Credit Card balances and Credit Card charges are at an all-time high while Individual Savings are being Depleted! Yet the unemployment rate stubbornly remains at 3.8-3.9%........amazing!!! What could possibly go WRONG? I was a working broker in Phoenix during the 2005-2006 runup. In March of 2006, there were only 2936 listings available in a County of 4 million; 12 months later, there were 33,330 listings on its way to 54,000. Californians were influencing the Market then as now....... Michael Douville

[@syberspud]

@@michaeldouville690great answer worthy of a reply. Surprised he hasn’t come back to you with a response. Everyone knows the 3.9% unemployment rate is fake.

[@michaeldouville690]

@@syberspud Thank you for the comment. Real Estate values and activity is definitely Regional driven by migration and employment. Florida and Texas are very good examples. Florida has been driven by a huge influx of retirees exasperated by the Covid lockdowns in the Northern States and those of Retirement Age throwing in the towel and calling it quits...moving to Florida! Huge demand all across Florida. However, retirees have fixed income and Fixed Cash causing them to have difficulty affording the price increases, a built in Ceiling. The Economy is based on Hospitality. Contrast that to the King of Bad Real Estate Investing for 2008-2010: Phoenix AZ. Phoenix got body slammed in 2008. Phoenix was a one industry town: Construction! Now, Phoenix has diversified it Industry and has several chip manufacturers with multiple plants; giants like Intel and TSMC. with thousands of very good paying jobs. Manufacturers like Wolf-Sub Zero, Nestles, Kohler, and Microsoft, BNSF Railroad bringing massive employment. The proximity to California is an obvious blessing. All markets will be affected by the Cycle Completing, all markets will be affected differently. I Believe Florida and Texas are ahead of themselves and will correct more than most markets. There is an opportunity coming.......invest where jobs are moving! Michael Douville

[@promounts1]

Hi how about Houston or Dallas ?

[@michaeldouville690]

Thank you for your comment. The same issue is happening Nationally. In 2020 and 2021, houses were a very hot commodity, just like Apartment Units. The Demand was off the charts! Move the time dial ahead the 2-3 years it takes to develop the projects and the whole Market Dynamics have changed! Rates have doubled, costs have exploded, and the carrying cost of interest rate charges have probably tripled for Builders. Add in a sharp decline in demand just as the Builders have ramped up, and you have the recipe for HUGE LOSSES! Texas, Florida, and Arizona have tremendous long-term trends. This will be just a correction for them; it could be an Epic Correction, but a correction in a long-term bull market. Michael Douville

[@lynnroberts40]

How does Salt Lake City look for a big drop in home values?

[@michaeldouville690]

Thank you for the comment. I do not follow Salt Lake City. The magnitude of the decline is outside of my research. If the exuberance was extreme, the regression to the mean will also. I believe you will know when the excesses have been wrung out. No one will want to buy! Michael Douville

[@__J____ff]

if you can say this for the american real estate industry, I wonder what it's going to be like here in australia where the majority of our population is on a variable rate mortgage instead of fixed rate. Complete contrast with U.S.

[@michaeldouville690]

Thank you for your comment. Negative gearing is going to BANKCRUPT many over-leveraged investors. I do not envision rates declining much. I have spent 3 months every year for 20 years of your Winters in Burleigh Heads on the beach; I know enough of Australia's RE Market to know it is over-priced. Should the Councils decide to open more land, prices would be very competitive. Michael Douville

[@danielmarks5133]

My wife says she’s going to leave me this summer if we don’t have a backyard. What do I do? 😆🤣

[@alohastateofmind3565]

Tell her adios

[@danmihai6744]

Tell her not to threaten you with a good time.

[@michaeldouville690]

Thank you for your comments. Happy Wife, Happy Life! Patience is of course my preference for discretionary Investments. Since March 2022, I have not placed any new Capital into the Market. IRC 1031 Exchanges relocate investments and are "Seasoned Capital". Homes are not 100% Investments; therefore, there are other considerations! I have been highlighting Builders; if there are any near you, they want to make a "DEAL". Michael Douville