Turkey's Unravelling Economy.

[@PBoyle]

Thanks to our growing list of Patreon Sponsors and Channel Members for supporting the channel. www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinance : Marc De Mesel, Annie Chen, Nate Stapleton,Timothy Baird, WIlam, Hernan Merino, Random Encounter, Nieuwsbrief Ikwil, Bee Positive Consulting, hyunjung Kim, John Cadena, Ian Tracey, Callum McLean, Oscar, Simon Pena, Ed, Pavle Obradovic, Erik Van Ekelenburg, David O'Connor, Zak Patterson, Pjotr Bekkering, Alex, Robert W Proudfoot, pooh shmoo, Robert Muller, Andre Michel, Ivan Iliev, Gopaljee Atulya, Milan Tomic, Mark Hooker, Artem Vasenin, P H, Sebastian, Michal Lacko, Peter Bočan, Michael Pierce, V Jordan, Gil, HalfwitHam, Mark Brophy, Patrick T, David Urdenata, Juan Valdez, Bruce Roberts, Chad Norman, Bruce Roberts, Shamikh Rana, Friday Guy, Marc De Mesel, Augusto Ramos, Soy Boomer Doomer, Bob Slartabartfast, Robert Feiler, Camil Dbouk, Erik Montesinos, Matthew Loos, Az Indragiri, Aman Bali, Lautaro Parada, Pratap, Deborah Joseph, Robin Sung, Kurt Johnston, Dominik Auerbach, Gurmeet Kaushal, John Hall, Dara Mo, Josef Goergen, Wilbert Cheng, Daniel Talero, Cogitecture, Jaroslav Tupý, Trevor Lucey JB Weld, Alex, Sunny, Carlos Figuera, Peter Pomelov, Null065, Rick Thor, MeBerzerk, Henry Nguyen, Sola F, The Collier, Carlos Mejia, J Wadia, Bitcoin OG, easy boekhouding, Albert, Eugene Jung, Oisin Quinn, Daniel Cervini, Jonathon Yong, Iris Ji, Emil Nicolaie Perhinschi, Charles, Gerard Scott Eli Auto, Excks, Michael Li, Par Hedman, Praveen Mishra, Gerard Scott, joel köykkä, Areeb Ahmed, Luis Torres, David Wang, Yazan Qaraqish, Rodolfo Cornetti, Daniel Winroth, johnny, Nick Jerrat, Chris Houston, Alastair Currie, Robert Griffin, Andrei, zizi Golo, Fab Vida, Constantin Petrenco, pawel irisik, NotAScam, James Halliday, 22 Dust, Carsten Baukrowitz, Heinrich, Arron T, Ben Brown, Brian Dennis, Stephen Mortimer (to The Moon), Ryan B. Hicks, B S, Liam, Logan Vrankovic, William Heaton, Paul McCourt, Daniel, Aaryan Koura, mikhail tyurin, Steven, Christopher Boersma, Dave Cooke, Ulf Lundblad, Dorothy Watson, Greg Blake, Simon Bone, Livermores Quant, The Collier Report, Scott Gardner, The Man Koala, Brian McCullough, Daniel S. Smith, Finance Student, Milton Danielsson, Tan Jin Da, Julie, Mohammad Rehman, James Wallace, Daniel Poellmann, Edosa Odigie, Dixon Yuen, joey smit, Josh Ge, Marek Novák, Charles Oosthuizen, Stamatis Drepaniotis Michael Smith, Etienne Cordonnier, Ahmed Hamadto, Chris Davey, Mike Farmwald, Michael A. Mayo, Lachezar Georgiev, Kamet Batra, Bradley Johnson, Sagar Gudi, Michael Chessar, Kate ATL, Tong Cheung, Lady Dje, James Barnes, Chris Hall, Kurt Johnston, ICBM Catcher Juan Valdes, KernelSC, Josh Garcia, Linn Engström, Veltsh, Konrad P-kala, Pastacat, Adam Vorting, Matthew McQuade, Christopher Lesner, freebird, Matt L, Kenneth WedMore Lund, erfective, Jason Young, Jonathan Kopnick, Peter Hendrickson, steel, MM420, Bastien, Tom Willett, Chris Whitehead, Anil Jason, Hany Abdulsamad, JOJO, Jason Butterley, AS7, Greg Thatcher, John Simpson, Ezekiel Templin, Robert M Daily, MrLuigi1138 Grecia Bate, Leszek Frankowski, Nam Nguyen, fang, Goutham, Priam Pillai, Karim THIBAULT, C, David R. Ingemi, Robert Wave, Dmitri Alexeev, Aaron Rose, Ethan Hernandez, Brett Turley, Claude Chevroulet, Adrian, Stephan Marosvary, Yigit Yargili Louis Julien, Jan Lukas Kiermeyer, Gearoid O Connor, Chuck Muchmore, Fredrick Saupe, Subliminal Transformation, Jason Horton, Alex McMahon, Adi, Ben, Kurt Mueller, Joaquin Madruga, Janusz Wieczorek, Federico Viscomi, DPhillips, S.Alw, Corgi, Mahdi, Burgerinn, Quinn Cone, Sam Doyle, QiKaiQian, Stephen, Joshua Rosenthal, Timotej Zat’ko, Frank Yashar, Michael Smith, Betterlife, Emilian Marius Tudor, Julian Aßmann, Cormac, Max Kaye, Ian Shearer, Nathan, Theodosius the Elder, Michael Kopřiva, Tinni, Goran Milivojevic, chris, Daniel Mooney, Joe Del Vicario, Scooby Snacks, Alexandre Mah, Brett Dulny, ultima9, Norman A. Letterman, danni Pedersen, ranjan datta and Yoshinao Kumagai

[@KangaMoose34]

Nice

[@malachinewbern1949]

You forgot to pin this to the top pal

[@kicapanmanis1060]

There's an account pretending to be you in some of the comments.

[@gokayk6262]

hey, I think this video needs a short update after the freefall of foreign currencies in Turkey. What they did is pretty much a mystery to me.

[@Ppp.9826]

Really, Merry Christmas Santa kiss💋 thanks for the ____ sweets.

[@scottn7cy]

While Turkey may be experiencing the most severe degradation right now none of us should take this lightly as inflation is a real problem in many countries. I wish the people of Turkey better lives in the near future.

[@kicapanmanis1060]

What you say is true but Turkey has had inflation problems for a few years before the pandemic, and that just worsened it to 11. Mind you I 100% that nobody should underestimate inflation at the moment.

[@alfredcampos7268]

Nah, fuck that, everyone is for itself

[@ragimundvonwallat8961]

@@alfredcampos7268 yep, i hope the bastards have it as hard as can be

[@alfredcampos7268]

@@ragimundvonwallat8961 couldn't have said it better myself

[@spardasquadspqr3535]

Please stop with this nonsense OP, turkey people were voting for erdogan and his team of dumbasses for far too long. Let them harvest what they sow. Everybody good at bitching on central banks but noone points fingers at idiots playing god and giving their votes to imbeciles... smh

[@pingdingdongpong]

As a Turk, I can attest to the fact that everything said is 100% true. You have done and admirable job of summarizing all that is wrong with the Turkish economy and Turkey in general.

[@zccau2316]

after building turkeys economy so good, why is erdogan undoing it all the idiot?

[@ldemiral]

Turkum diye otuyon ama , ekonomiden anladigin yok, Turkiye nin ekonomik tarihinden haberin yok. Turkce de de dingdong diye sadece senin adin var. Kendine Turkum deyip otecegine, ilk once kendine bir Turk adi koy. Kendi ulkene laf atan, soven herkese kucak acma. Bu adamin dediklerinin sadece yarisi dogru ve bu bir taktiktir. Ilk once dogrulari soylemeye basla ondan sonra da attigin herseyi insanlar dogru zannetsin. Yani senin anladigin dilden soylersek " oldest trick in the book". Simdi As a TUrk (eger gercekten oyleysen ki, turk olan birisinin kendisine dingdong diyebilecek bir turk'e ilk defa burda rastliyon. Dingdong cugum umarim anlamisindir, hani as a turk diyon ya.

[@pingdingdongpong]

@@ldemiral Evet, ekonomi uzmani oldugun belagatindan da belli oluyor zaten. Birlesmis Milletler'e gore per capita GDP siralamasinda Turkiye 90. sirada. Memleket itin gotune girdi cikti, sen daha kimin borazanini otturuyorsun?

[@josephjoestar4633]

@@ldemiral hadi lan ordan erdoğancı ihvancı seni

[@hera5299]

@@ldemiral knk senin kadar boş yorum yapanı görmedim. Nickinin yabancı olması değildir bir insanı Türk yapan. Ülkesi için endişelenmesidir. Şu an görüyorum ki sen hala uyuyor ve boş boş algılar yapıyorsun. Linç yememek için sil bence. Bu kadar boş olunmaz.

[@tacticoolrick5562]

I love how he casually calls the English tea posers. A true Irishman.

[@oktaygedik2463]

As a turk this was one of the best description what's happening in my country. Thank you Patrick

[@josephpeeler5434]

How much has the Turkish central bank increased the lira supply over the last 2-years? Here in the U.S. the Federal Reserve has increased the base currency supply by 40% over the last 2-years. The result is rapidly rising prices in the U.S.

[@TheNaturalLawInstitute]

( I was really surprised. It's spot on. )

[@jondoe6926]

I don't understand why Turks allow him to stay. He's a fucking dictator. He's the same as Xi and Putin. Exact same. Why do turks put up with this shit.

[@pedrocoentro2009]

Good luck for the people of Turkey 🇹🇷 👍

[@Rico-bt1yu]

@@jondoe6926 my dude, were it so easy..

[@Mark-el8sb]

The Erdogan family are big property developers in Turkey. And property developers hate high interest rates on financing... They also don't mind inflation, as it's easier to attract investors and buyers who are looking to convert their increasingly worthless currency into hard assets like property.

[@Odignridk]

Long live erdogan

[@bekirkarabulut4404]

Amerika lı Trump daha fazla gayrimenkul sahibi Türkiye de.

[@dsmhiggins67]

Thankyou for that info - if true it explains Erdogans r*tarded behaviour

[@calboy2]

@@Odignridk yes please live as long as the typical house gnat

[@kingsentertainment786]

lol interests are prohibited in Islam thats the reason.

[@AlexAnder-rv1gu]

Man, I love how well you did your research. And - and I can't say this loud enough - I think it is FANTASTIC that you didn't catastrophize this topic. Your summary ending and reminder that this is a solvable situation was a call for calmness that needs to be put on the end of every news report these days.

[@dnomyarnostaw]

You heard it was SOLVABLE ? You must have a lot of Lira, and really NEED to hear some vaguely hopeful news.

[@bigal6684]

Really good idea, but prophets of doom seem to garner more attention!

[@shardator]

It is solvable, by the removal of that moron. At that moment Lira will skyrocket, just because of the bright outlooks.

[@markusgorelli5278]

I'm a Zimbabwean trillionaire. I probably paid too much for the privilege of obtaining the bills on ebay, but it was an investment opportunity that I couldn't resist.

[@notsojharedtroll23]

@@whatapp5106 bruh, reported

[@DJCannon5]

I had some i left out in my apartment, I thought it was cool to have big notes hanging around and someone actually stole them. I love dead currency, it may not be money but the stories they tell.

[@ggusta1]

@@DJCannon5 I stole your currency. When I got home I realized it was Zimbabwean. I left 5 quadrillion dollars on my doorstep planning to throw it in the recycling. When I came back from inside to throw it out, someone had left another 500 trillion in Zim bucks. I took it to Starbucks and handed it over, they gladly accepted it and 6.78 USD in exchange for a macchiato.

[@RandomguyMr]

I bought one million Zimbabwean dollars, just to tell someone i'm a millionare.

[@DJCannon5]

@gregg gusta I was living in NYC in Bushwick, If your trying to imply no one is dumb enough to still Zims there, Try harder.

[@amorosogombe9650]

Economic management should not be left to politicians.

[@monsterboomer8051]

Left is full of muh science untill they meet economics.

[@ishumaeruharaorda217]

It should be left to wall street and neo liberal economists then?

[@amorosogombe9650]

@@ishumaeruharaorda217 No. It should be left to qualified appointed professionals just like central bank governance or medicine. It's academically qualified work being left up to politically qualified people. Erdogans insane interest rate policies are a perfect case in point.

[@RealShawnPate]

@@amorosogombe9650 Or just left to the market. With no intervention from central banks at all populations and markets have thrived for millennia. This is a failed experiment, so what do we still need them for?

[@amorosogombe9650]

@480shenanigans Erdogan seems to be ignoring this though, firing one central bank governor that disagrees with him after another, 3 so far.

[@bekirkl4658]

The situation he made us come to is really sad. Turkey didnt deserve this, he disgraced our country. What makes me angry is that elder turkish people are letting themselves being manipulated by him with his islamic image. I know a country needs an identity to hold its community together but they should realize he is abusing everything with islam to brainwash them. He is the sole reason why we are in this awful state, and people still believe that he is going to be the one who will fix it all.

[@vaultatropos116]

“Turkey didn’t deserve this” Yeah O K A Y

[@silencemeviolateme6076]

Same problem with older and rural Americans.

[@Nothingsrealanym0ree]

Lets be honestly here. If the Turkish Lira would go down 0.1% for every Kurdish Civilian they've killed. Lira would be equivalent to Iranian Rial or if they were lucky, Iraqi Dinar

[@JasbirSingh-zj1fg]

" _he is abusing everything with islam_ " How is Erdogan abusing Islam? Isn't it true that usury is haram in Islam?

[@chemonather7459]

Or Is it Best way for Modi ( India) destroyed everything in Bangladesh, Family Society Education, Health care, Humanity, Civilization?

[@NeoMekhar]

This exact same situation has been happening in Argentina for a number of years now. The pandemic accelerated everything, the country is ahead of Turkey in its road to complete collapse. Its amazing how these populist leaders take the exact same measures, use the same propaganda, etc. Great video!!

[@FurkanCemTurfanda]

The label they put on themselves doesn't matter, Islamic, Christian, socialist this that, they all do the same thing.

[@hermes8258]

Which is why as a low-income retiree traveller exploiter of opportunities for budget living will next visit Argentina! I suspect however that Turkey is a better deal for foreigners who are not carnivores.

[@Maryus1127]

if argentina and turkey are at the same situation, it means argentinean kids’ childhood are sadly stolen too. hoping for everbody in these kinds of situation to get better soon! love frok turkey

[@alara4006]

“Amazing how these populist leaders all take the exact same measures, the same propaganda etc” exactly. And it somehow works every time

[@erranzimmermann1207]

Wow, such an informative video of a country that gets little exposure, especially on a financial frontier. Found it fascinating. I appreciate the background info and political dynamics at play. Thanks for producing this!

[@ImperatorSomnium]

Because they suck, that's why no one talks about them....

[@markmclaren3836]

@@ImperatorSomnium MNM Kinney kk

[@brodyalden]

Patrick is great

[@stopscammerssendthemtopris2176]

Erran Zimmerman! Totally agree. Hopefully, they would recover from this as quickly as possible as it'd winter there and especially Syrian refugees would be the most effected.

[@TheCyricson]

turkey gets no coverage? have you ever seen the news these last 4 5 years? they are the only country who made ALL of their neighbours enemies and even pissed all the major powers.

[@ButthurtImmigrant]

Cheers from Istanbul 🤩 Extra credits for your objectivity about Turkey 🥳

[@alexjoneschannel]

Make it Constantinople again

[@CatsMeowPaw]

Turkey's currency is so volatile at the moment. Its just rocketed upwards in value all of a sudden. Must be a really tough country to do business in at the moment.

[@waaghghazghkull6362]

I tried to buy something from turkey and the price keeps fluctuating seemingly at random which I just gave up since it's not worth the problem

[@JMA4206]

Turkey will cook and eat they drones soon..

[@JMA4206]

Try to put some money in your economy

[@RealShawnPate]

That wasn't coincidence. We were Robbin-Hooded. They closed the market in the middle that selloff, then for a few hours we could only close orders, but not open any. Now we continually see large moves with virtually no volume, and then at other times massive volume spikes with little to no price movement. It's very tightly manipulated on a algorithmic level, and Turkey doesn't have the resources to do that on their own. My purely speculative guess would be the JP Morgan servers in New York, but that's just a guess.

[@RanEncounter]

@@RealShawnPate It is weird you use the term Robbin-Hooded. It seems you have some misconceptions about what happened there. They had a liquidity problem and buying stocks temporarily (two bussiness days) requires more liquidity from the company. This has nothing to do with what happened in Turkey.

[@agenericaccount3935]

Lmao “…Zimbabwe would be the world’s factory today”. Never change the deadpan.

[@RubenTrucks]

I only tune in for the dry jokes

[@daveallentown6868]

Nancy Pelosi uses an accountant who scores Zimbabwe as a high-income nation.

[@michaelsmith4904]

@@daveallentown6868 source?

[@daveallentown6868]

@@michaelsmith4904 It is a Build Back Better deficit- calculation joke.

[@E4439Qv5]

@@michaelsmith4904 source is Lake Victoria, but there's still no scientific consensus on that.

[@ReslyDale]

Turkey is going down a little bit more everyday and as a Turkish i watch it in tears and stress . What the government is doing to our country is so cruel and it's so sad we still have people who support Erdoğan

[@TS-jc3fc]

I feel you I pray do you think there’s any chance we can save the lira anymore ? I’m pretty young and stressing I don’t understand the economy in turkey that much .I feel like that we’re gonna end up like Syria or Iraq no knock on those countries.

[@sir-khan2651]

Hi. i am a Turkish citizen. Most of the comments in this video are true, especially about Erdogan's Alice in Wonderland dream fantasy economics theories. There are minor errors, like cryptocurrencies being banned or actual inflation being %40 (it's more than %100) etc... And one big issue of 5 million Syrian immigrants and a couple millions of other nations being taken care of by Turkish people is never mentioned. At the end of the day, all of the problems are solvable i think but for the men who want them to be solved. if Turkish people insist selecting Erdogan again and again like idiots, they will lose everything for sure. Well, let's wait and see what happens next...

[@nedzadi]

Erdogan has a choice to raise interest rates slow economy and then take loan from IMF? Do you think that's better solution than now??? What is your suggestion for new president???

[@taterkaze9428]

Does the EU contribute to the cost of hosting Syrian migrants?

[@soulflame799]

@@taterkaze9428 yes, Turkey receives payments from the EU budget as pre-accession support, currently 4.5 billion allocated for the 2014-2020 period (about 740 million Euros per year). But maybe Erdogan is spending it on his war? :D

[@nedzadi]

@@taterkaze9428 Almost none.

[@nostro1940]

Germany has 7 million Turks And turkry spends no money what so ever on syrians so stop complaining

[@seanwiebe9611]

This is one of my favourite videos you have ever made. Wow is there a lot of information there, thank you for presenting it in a very factual manner.

[@az88238]

so turkey is part of NATO and being democratic country is a requirement to join NATO but China isn't a democratic country but in the mean time people in turkey are afraid to interview about their economy with foreign guy but in China they can interview ?? that's odd

[@TheNaturalLawInstitute]

Patrick: Flawless presentation. Seriously. Well done.

[@mynameismynameis666]

Your assessment of P&G tips has just elevated Your credibility in my eyes. Spot on....

[@leonardwonderman3854]

Putting our time and effort in activities and investments that will yield a profitable return in the future is what we should be aiming for.

[@kelvinl.3875]

Very true

[@kelvinl.3875]

A great work demands a great sacrifice and who is not capable of a great sacrifice is not capable of a great work

[@benildabituin1531]

Speaking of investment, I have been finding a tough time deciding between mutual funds and real estate investing, anyone with ideas to help me with?

[@colegaligger7072]

@@benildabituin1531 I'm into real estate investing.

[@colegaligger7072]

Real estate investing lets people grow their net worth by amassing more and more properties. Its a good long term investment idea due to appreciation.

[@nicoz4122]

Great content as usual. I have lots of Turkish colleagues and very good friends. I have been there many times. Never saw anything else than very friendly people, a great sense of hopitality, delicious food and amazing historical and natural sites. It makes me sad to see large part of the population suffering because of a stubborn president....

[@randomlygeneratedname7171]

Debt slavery is treason the president isn’t stubborn he is just tired of slavery

[@zopEnglandzip]

"Smoll huh? You want eat my bolls?" Said the massive chef behind the counter, it felt like a challenge on my manhood as the balls were huge but when in Istanbul... Not much to not enjoy about turkey other than the politics, I had mixed feelings about the failure of the coup as that was a completely normal thing to happen when a Turkish president overstepped the mark, looking back it seems it could have been better for the people if it had worked.

[@monsterboomer8051]

All those "nice" people voted for him or support him so... yeah.

[@janvanhof1469]

@@randomlygeneratedname7171 How long is he in power? He made most of the debt with his big ego, among which the dumbest expenses are a big costly palace (building and maintaining) and lately an extra redundant canal. You cannot spend someone else's money and then say "tired of slavery". The bad thing is that he is not alone, and even in denial he isn't alone,. My country also have ex-ministers claiming that they did not create the debt nah it was magically there when they were in power. And now 20% or more of my taxes are just repaying interest on that debt as it is not diminishing. Most countries in the west overspend and even China does, and then the people suffer. The Fed clearly overspent with massive inflation now, but at least they changed course. Erdogan not and he even fired the last critical voices.

[@mrgyani]

Turkey is a pretty radicalized country right now, because of Erdogan. I am from India and it is the same story here, with radical hindutwa fanatics (coz of Modi).

[@AI7KTD]

I think in the historical context, it would have been beneficial to point out what happened with the first Turkish Lira which thanks to insane levels of inflation became the least valuable currency from '99 to '04. They switched to the New Turkish Lira (YTL) in '05 with a conversion ratio of a million Lira to one YTL, effectively removing six zeros from their currency. This is not their first rodeo with high inflation and now it looks to me they're on their path to the third Turkish Lira in the next 10 years or so.

[@frmcf]

I remember a local radio show in Scotland had a phone-in competition called "Who wants to be a (Turkish) millionaire", maybe in the early 2000s. The top prize was, of course, a million lira, which was about £20 at the time.

[@frmcf]

Now having Googled it, it looks like the local radio may have copied it from Howard Stern.

[@donaldwilliamfry]

It is not just happening in Turkey. There will be a meltdown of the entire world's currency, which will be followed by the rise of Antichrist and a world currency. This is all prophesied in the Bible. Now is the time to come to faith in Christ or be swept away for all eternity with Antichrist.

[@dsmhiggins67]

@@donaldwilliamfry there is no god. Deal with your own problems

[@donaldwilliamfry]

@@dsmhiggins67 You won't be in His presence for 10 seconds before you realize your blindness. What evidence would it take for you to believe? What would you need to see?

[@SupraBlack-dp4zz]

Anybody remember Howard Stern's Who Wants to be a Turkish Millionaire? I think this was when Turkey's money was at the worst state as I believe a million Turkish Lira was only like 12 US Dollars or something ridiculous.

[@kathykaura7219]

Maybe that was before they deleted several zeros off the money back about 20 years ago.

[@Michael-wp3yl]

The magical thinking of Erdonomics. Fascinating. He is making history : in a century, he will still be in textbooks.

[@josephpeeler5434]

Erdonomics: Deficit spending financed by the printing press.

[@E4439Qv5]

Bold of you to assume there will still be textbooks in a century. Nothing is assured.

[@awdrifter3394]

It sucks for the people who are affected, but it'll be a great experiment to see if growth can outrun inflation. All other strategies seem to fail and usually end up with the country losing its own currency (like Zimbabwe).

[@darcycardinal6275]

What a sad state of affairs for the Turkish people as a whole. As a North American I can’t relate to situation as nothing like this is going on in Canada (for now). However, is there anyone else here who is getting a very uneasy feeling about what is going on outside in the world right now? Feels like we just on the edge of a cliff some days!

[@realtorkevinfung]

You don't feel it but it is happening everywhere. Any low interest rate will debase the currency. Like frogs sitting in water slowly boiling. Canada is abundant with resources but it's leadership isn't much better than this guy when you separate out the policy vs the natural resources. As a Canadian

[@chucksneedmoreland]

I heard chicken breast and other meat prices in Canada are going through the roof?

[@JustSomePerson8]

Since when has Canada had any problems? Just wonder why you're talking like anything bad Is possibility?

[@TheBalterok]

Just you wait. There are marxists in US government. Canada is no different.

Canada is a hell hole for a normal American. If you give a chance to an average Canadian to move to warmer and beautiful America Canada would be vacated in 24 hours. The only reason people stay in Canada is that America won't let them in. People migrate to Canada because it is easier to move to Canada and Canada looks good when you compare it to Syria or Bangladesh. I hope now you feel better.

[@cherubin7th]

Istanbul's airport sucks. It takes forever to get anywhere and it is congested. Also no WLAN unless you register your passport or phone number WTF.

[@inveele]

100% accurate!

[@dougritchie9548]

Wait a minute! Patrick releases a video about Turkey and within hours the government announces a rescue plan and the Lira rallys hugely?! Patrick Boyle, influential indeed!

[@chancefreeman3806]

Your a blessing sir, I truly enjoy your education sessions

[@ZahidTekbas]

The video explains and sums the current situation of Turkey's economy with enough and simple background information. It is so clear. Thanks for the video.

[@jhenninger]

Turkeys CPI and PPI are very similar to how the U.S. looks right now, just hasn't hit us hard yet, it's a warning to where things are headed

[@apergiel]

3 years ago I flew into Turkey on a whim. I was gobsmacked by the modern massive airport , the fancy new high rises and the beautifully landscaped highway into the city. All I knew before of Turkey was a dusty Mideast country poorly depicted by American media. Then I noticed one could see through the empty skyscrapers. Hmmm? Nonetheless, I would like to go back.

[@ustadsami]

Unfortunately, there is a lot of misinformation and lack of information about Turkey. Very undermarketed, truly a gem for any visitors, all around: food, people, geography, history, activities, shopping...

[@HermanWillems]

@@belisdemirci the EU doesnt just block based in emotions for sanctions real procedures have to be gone trough with evidence and backed up by alot of people in the EU. Its not like one person in EU just wakes up and sanction some country because of emotion of because he or she doesnt like Turkey. When the EU does something there has to be real factual good reasons for it.

[@shieldwolfminiatures8645]

@@belisdemirci you are delusional, you are blaming Greeks and Cypriots (both of which are EU members) for Turkey's failure? Get real. Peace and good luck. You'll need both to recover.

[@hasanbozkalesalaymansinter9463]

@@neues3691 Civil war will not happen for a foreseeable future.

[@hasanbozkalesalaymansinter9463]

@@neues3691 Turkey will not join EU. It has all the elements and Potential to b an adversary to Europe

[@NishkamTheGeneral]

This is becoming my favorite yt channel. Your voice is relaxing and information dynamic and hard to find. Thank you! 🙏

[@polecabo]

I can't free load this channel anymore. Got my patron. This is too good to not contribute something

[@De-Centralized]

Spent 2 1/2 years living amongst the Turks near Adana. This makes me sad. But so does "President" Erdogan.

[@thesoundinyourhead1782]

Adana= Άδανα. Another greek named city.

[@tezcanuyank3446]

@@thesoundinyourhead1782 Do we give a fuck?

[@thesoundinyourhead1782]

@@tezcanuyank3446 no you don't of course, your iq and education is pretty low. I on the other hand lough my @ss when we have conquered you culturally.

[@tigerwest4748]

@@thesoundinyourhead1782 Let them be. Everyone gets the government they deserve. Long live Erdogan. He is just as impactful on Turkey as communism was on Eastern Europe.

[@divineneos4392]

@@thesoundinyourhead1782 im pretty sure i dont give a fuck.

[@erayacar7698]

An ignorant leader, leads ignorance with his ignorant followers. It always ends up like this in any country in the world if you let the power be in one hand. Very well done video Patrick. Thank you.

[@rtchakar]

With such a Turkish-gyaur ,ataputist-kemalist like you, here are the results! Erdogan is the greatest leader of our time!

[@atakinpowa]

@@rtchakar Did not think i would see Erdoğan supporters here. I thought you guys were too dumb to find videos like these.

[@Wolf-dk7hs]

@@rtchakar good joke

[@InvestToLive]

I was deep in the Lira many years ago on the carry trade. I remember like yesterday when it blew up. It feels like this has just been a continuous disaster since like 2015.

[@Dajobi1]

Thanks Patrick, another incisive view. In my opinion, you are one of the best financial commentators in the world.

[@L2Xenta]

... wait a moment, I got stuck at the 1 minute 20 part... Did he just say that he was able to talk to people on the ground in Communist China about the economic situation around Evergrande, but he found it impossible to talk to economists in Turkey about what is going on economically... because they are afraid to have a straight talk about it ?! WOW ! Good Job Sultan Erdogan & CO. .... wow.

[@stanislavstoimenov1729]

Turkey is well on its way of becoming an absolutist neo-Sultanate. Which means that the worse the news from Turkey are, the better is for the countries that neighbour it, and especially for those located Westwards of Bosphorus -- Greece and Bulgaria (both are amongst Turkey's oldest and most pronounced enemies, historically).

[@L2Xenta]

@@stanislavstoimenov1729 Indeed its looking pretty grim for Turkey, from a freedom loving point of view - and so from all points of view in modern world. But reality is his or my comparison to China is still a bit misleading . The truth is people on the ground in China are allowed to talk about it because they dont really know anything that the communist party is doing in the background anyway.... The Chinese Communist Party always says something publicly and then does whatever it wants hidden from anyone's view. And anyone that has the insider information of what is going on will never say anything for 2 reasons, he is a CCP member, and if somehow that wasnt enough he doesnt want to be disappeared... Either way Turkey is not far behind. P.s. Wouldnt be too surprised if Erdogan attempted some day to make Turkey a nuclear power, since it follows in the footsteps of China, not caring how many enemies they have and still make. Sometimes it seems similar the way Turkey and China treat their neighbors ...

[@QUINTUSMAXIMUS]

Journalists, economists, and even Turkish youtube personalities are afraid to talk. This is why I don't want Erdogan to die from natural causes or any other way. I want him to lose the elections and then get investigated and deal with karma. He's destroyed so many lives.

[@stanislavstoimenov1729]

@@QUINTUSMAXIMUS Erdogan is not losing elections again. Ever. That's like saying that Putin, or better yet that one North Korean cretin-in-chief, is about to lose elections. It is not even a theoretical possibility, in my mind. Then again, I could be wrong. I have been wrong before...

[@stanislavstoimenov1729]

@@L2Xenta The largest implication of Turkey's "new course" geostrategically is that Erdogan has out-right denounced "the American way" -- i.e. the open society functioning in a market system, with all political, societal and civic freedoms AND responsibilities that implies -- by adopting "the Chinese path" (a one party dictatorship). Which means that he singlehandedly erased the efforts of many generations of Turks -- the ones who believed in the Kemalist dream of a Westernized, free and prosperous Turkey. As long as Turkey remains outside of Pax Americana, and as long as the Western dream that until recently Turkey shared remains replaced by Erdogan's Islamist lunacy, Turkey's future is going to be... truly grim and medieval. The neighbouring countries ought to be growing VERY nervous right about now.

[@richmondlau5945]

thanks for the summary. crazy that you cant find an expert to talk about it from inside the country. i wonder how much we dont know about thats kept inside the country. also thank you to all the turkish citizens replying to this video. its good to hear your opinion and your reaction to this video. hope the situation gets better over there. i cant imagine what it feels like to live through this

[@aylaktavsan]

Feels like hell, to be really honest. I have been working as a translator for 5 years now and seeing my salary decreasing day by day is really backbreaking. Young people are looking for ways to get out of the country but at this point our money is so valueless as against dollar/euro/pound that we are essentially stuck in this hell. Memes are getting funnier though, as it is the only way of expressing our frustrations.

[@divineneos4392]

@@aylaktavsan true that. Im now calculating my scholarships from italy trying to figure out if i can survive without my parents' help in college cuz the rent price of a cheap af dorm in italy is about 2 months of minimum wage salary in turkey.

[@TheMadTurkTV]

@@aylaktavsan hell sucks :)

[@johnwheat5199]

Excellent video, there are however a few other factors at play in Turkey. Firstly, I must comment on the official rate of inflation, it's a nonsense. It's actually running at something in excess of 80%, with prices rising on a daily basis, in fact there are those here that believe it to be more in the region of 100%. Another major problem here is the massive levels of personal debt. When Mr. Erdogan was elected, he pulled the oldest trick in the political handbook, the deregulation of the credit market. A smoke and mirrors exercise, the filling of pockets with money pulled out of the future. Turkey was previously a relatively cautious, conservative, debt free nation. The Turks, unaccustomed to the wicked ways of the west, were like children let loose in a candy store. They greedily gorged themselves on cheap, readily available credit like there was no tomorrow. That tomorrow has now arrived and the chickens are coming home to roost. The middle class aspirational dream has now turned into a complete enslavement nightmare. Further add to the mix a lethal cocktail of cronyism, and fractional reserve banking, and the picture is complete. Who knows if there is even enough money in the system should things deteriorate further. I'm afraid to say, in my opinion, all it's going to take is one run on a major bank, and this house of cards could come crashing down.

[@RealShawnPate]

Where's the silver that Turkey bought a month ago? They apparently cleared out all the wholesale stock at the LME at a massive premium.

[@johnwheat5199]

@@RealShawnPate It's probably been spirited away to Switzerland. Turkey has form when it comes to fingers in the till. For example, Boris Johnson, the entire Johnson family fortune was founded on money filched from the Ottoman treasury by their ancestor, Ali Kemal.

[@RealShawnPate]

@@johnwheat5199 That's sad. I thought it could possibly be part of a brilliant move to establish a silver backed Lira when all the dust settles.

[@MrHellweasel]

Well in that case Turks weren't really conservative, were they? :) If they were conservative with their finances, an abundance of cheap credit would not really affect them.

[@johnwheat5199]

@@MrHellweasel I stated "previously" which is past tense.

[@61akra12]

hey Patrick, great video and I've shared it with multiple i know. i feel like you did a great job of describing the situation in turkey without getting too politically entrenched (i am a turkish-american and an fervent opponent to erdogan). However, I wanted to ask you about your one comment on 10:07 which caught me a bit off guard. you stated erdogan's policy of never raising interest rates is rooted in islamic economics and marxism? for sure there seems to be an "islamic" element to his opposition to interest or "riba" (although one can't help feel that's just a convenient cover-up for other hidden economic convictions and motivations. if his motivation is islamic, why not ban "riba" altogether, an action which has never even been teased as a possiblity). the part I really didn't get was the marxist part. erdogan, whether you reference his more islamic roots, or his slightly more "secular" statesman profile, has never had any marxist inclinations at all. in fact, as im sure you're fully aware, erdogan's party, akp, has fully embraced neo-liberal policies from day one. their economic policy has almost exclusively been about inviting foreign capital into the nation. furthermore, his conservative right-wing background and base see communism as nothing but militant atheism designed to sow chaos. much respect

[@indiavanguardia266]

Yeah, Marxism does not prescribe any kind of commentary on Monetary Policy AFAIK. I was hoping for an explanation but he seems to be using it like it is a catch-all term for bad economic policy.

[@g3ndim]

Could be the effort to control both monetary and fiscal policies( Even though it is more of a feature of communist economics)

[@indiavanguardia266]

@@g3ndim Classical Marxism doesn't say things on many issues. I think it mostly has to say things about capital ownership. I am not sure if "Communist Economics" is a thing lol. There's a diverse and broad understandings on many issues, including monetary policy.

[@Christopher-po8pt]

I never thought I'd enjoy economic material like this. The evergrande stuff got me here because I like to stay up on current events as the effects echo around the world in our era. Now I enjoy trying to model what's occurring and trying to figure it all out. Thanks.

[@jayalanlife5926]

I had to pause this video, because I was laughing at the monkeys when Patrick was back to serious. In the best possible way Patrick's farcical rhythm through his vlogging is for me the most entertaining pick me up of the day. Cheers Patrick, keep going strong. Alan

[@mandog2142]

Hear, hear!

[@spiritualantiseptic]

I agree. I absolutely enjoy his sense of humor and jokes always told with a straight face.

[@stevendefehr4393]

Me too! Great speaker! Cheers from Canada!

[@samiraperi467]

I wouldn't consider the 2016 "coup attempt" to ever have happened before we can get independent research into the matter. It's just too perfect for Erdogan to get an excuse to grab more power.

[@burakcoskun525]

Great video as always, Patrick! As an avid fan, I'd be happy to provide an on-the-ground perspective, should you ever need one. I'm sure you're already aware but yesterday we pushed the unorthodox monetary policy experiment even further. Banks will offer deposit accounts that compensate TL savers for any losses due to exchange rate fluctuations using funds from Turkey's treasury. It is, in effect, somewhat of a massive variable interest hike, but given our fiscal deficit, also somewhat of a ponzi scheme that'll probably lead to an inflationary death spiral with more money being printed to compensate savers for their losses. We had the USD/TRY rate fall 25% after Erdoğan revealed this plan in a press conference. Truly fascinating stuff, even if it is a bit morbid. Looking forward to hearing your thoughts on this in the near future!

[@xdonnix]

I am convinced the financialization of real estate, over time, produces a net negative effect on developed and emerging markets.

[@sdprz7893]

Even Singapore, one of the most hyper-capitalist countries on earth realised this and embraced socialised housing

[@TomSmith-li5se]

@@sdprz7893 This has nothing to do with what he is talking about lol. You "social housing" guys are so obsessed.

[@iamasmurf1122]

Yes you are right about that and it goes way back to Nixon taking the US dollar off the gold standard , soon all countrys followed and the US currency is the number 1 fiat currency which yes is worth less and less each year ; the US has been running deficits since taking currencys off the gold intrensic value and the rest of the world had no other way to go but follow because fiat currency’s are not tied to intrensic values

[@TheAtllas]

@@TomSmith-li5se yes it does.. What would financialization of real estate mean otherwise? or what is your definition of Social Housing?

[@TheAtllas]

@@iamasmurf1122 Well but it also allowed more spending for the government, which would have been really good if it would lead to more social spendings and building infrastructure and not in to wars.. Which was also profitable, but just not for the average american and more for wealthy investores.

[@inabidofpickle6298]

Thank you for making this video. It couldn't have been more accurate and informative.

[@austinmoore2946]

Hey Patrick, thanks for the video. It would be great to see coverage of Erdogan's recent gaurentee to lira depositors in Turkey's banks. He's basically offering a vanilla/domestic FX swaption. I'm puzzled about the implications. It seems like it would potentially contribute to inflationary pressures (if the swaption is executed & settled with new money), but at the same time, it would bolster confidence in the currency. My guess: there is an arbitrage-parity effect in place with this new policy--hence the sudden boost & surprising stability of the lira ex-post announcement--but I just can't put my finger on it ...

[@brandonmorgan8016]

You have funny words, old man

[@philippeyared2050]

The increase in Turkey's CDS might be an indication of the final cost of this policy which, and I can't quite understand it right now, might be looking like the one that bankrupted Lebanon: guarantee an exchange rate, but, when the music stopped, only in banks, not in the ability to transfer foreign currencies out of the country or to obtain them in cash, meaning in fact that bank deposits in foreign currencies will be valued increasingly as if they really were in local currency. This happened in Lebanon because banks could not go bankrupt in a legal sense due to the size of the problem and it might happen in Turkey because the guarantee will be given by the State and not by banks. In the end, it will spell disaster

[@austinmoore2946]

@@philippeyared2050 thanks for the reply. Yes, as you expanded upon, the famous 'Impossible Trinity' in action--that also ended up hurting Lebanon's coffers badly. I personally didn't see this as a fixed-rate regime, but I admit, I could be wrong! (there is certainly a payoff like a fixed-rate regime) It's like some sort of policy 'superposition' of fixed-rate regime and interest rate policy--if you'll excuse the analogy. Regardless, this is certainly an experiment & so very interesting! I do hope the best for the people of Turkey.

[@philippeyared2050]

@@austinmoore2946 the analogy if any would be in an exchange rate guarantee / promise which can appear to work as long as the promised currency remains largely a promise (normal for a bank as a bank cannot pay all deposits at once but with a very powerful motive to liquidate a foreign currency deposit which is to get the actual foreign currency in your hands and so it can become the driver of a banking system collapse or insolvency). When you have 2 secs, it'd be great if you could explain your swaption analogy

[@austinmoore2946]

@@philippeyared2050regarding the swap piece: It really isn't an analogy, Erdogan's policy (or at least my reading of the overview provided in the announcement) is offering equivalent "long USD swap-options" for lira depositors. That is, a financial option (potential) to settle on the differences in FX changes over a set period of time, where the forward rates for each currency in the swap are future-valued by the risk-free interest rates of those currencies (FVing is due to 'interest rate parity' to avoid arbitrage). Overall & importantly, the forward rate pricing for the swap (which determines whether the option has value at expiration) is bounded by arbitrage. So, with this swap-option overview, if we can safely approximate USD @ 0% (risk free), then a USD/Lira swap-option only has value to exercise for a long USD position when the lira has depreciated beyond Turkey's interest rate over the term of the swap. As you may have noted, these are precisely the terms Erdogan set out! Ha! If you are interested, there is a pricing section on FX swaps in Wikipedia with the arbitrage conditions explained further.

[@mellel5594]

You're one of my top sources for economic news, Patrick. Thank you for your highly informative videos! Respect from Canada! 👍🏾

[@cruisepaige]

Omg the tea thing!!! With a straight face! You’re wonderful!

[@品味历史品味人生]

I went to Turkey in 2009 and 2019. Beautiful scenery, nice food, wonderful people! Visible change from personal observation: 1. More apartments ( house bubble ) 2. More National flags hanging out (nationalism) 3. More mosques ( away from secularism). Wish Turkey all the best!

[@alleiera]

right.. lets hope for all turks ;)

[@bubbasbigblast8563]

Seeing a country with such a rich history, and so much potential, fall so much because of corruption well and truly hurts. I'd also like to add that it's supposed to be usury, not interest, that's evil: the two are often conflated, but the distinction should still exist.

[@TheNefastor]

A rich history... It's a bunch of genocidal revisionists, let's not get ahead of ourselves. What have they ever invented ?

[@tbyte007]

That's what the religious idiots do.

[@jigsaw2253]

@@TheNefastor don’t be hypocrite, most western countries commuted genocide

[@drsgme69]

Anatolia is for the Greeks, not turks

[@TheNefastor]

@@jigsaw2253 you may want to learn about the Armenian genocide of 1915.

[@-.-..._...-.-]

I really liked your analysis and the history you displayed. Since you did Turkey, you should do one about Greece from 2008, their political parties and the EU handling of the crisis

[@asafnisan]

I am from Turkey, this is a great video that explains the current state of affairs as is. Very well researched.

[@markdowns9607]

Will there be a property collapse ?

[@asafnisan]

@@markdowns9607 People have been speculating for years now, that eventually there will be one, but at the moment the bubble keeps getting inflated.

[@markdowns9607]

@@asafnisan Thank You for your thoughts... Myself I probably would not invest in Turkish Property or Real Estate at rhe cost, maybe Istanbul??? However I cannot help but think that when the powers that be in Turkey run out of money, then obviously they will look at where they can take it from ? The small foreign people who have invested at the coast ??? Just a thought... Do you think that this could be possible?

[@asafnisan]

@@markdowns9607 Well I don't think that they will go that far and confiscate foreigner's assets. Moreover, elections will be held soon, it's likely that the current political party will lose. The only risk I see would be the inflation of the housing bubble with no end in sight. As a side note, it's said that when locals run out of money, foreigners come and keep investing in the turkish housing market and further perpetuate the growing bubble. We can't know for sure, but it sounds like a plausible theory.

[@markdowns9607]

@@asafnisan thank you again Asaf... What you say on this one makes a sense. For the Turkish people there I hope the foreigners bring jobs rather than money... The only time you truly know the value of money is when you have had to work hard for it yourself. If money is given away to a person it is easy money and the person who receives the easy money will loose it just as easily. (One of my life stories/ observations)

Thank you for this great video! Learned so much about my own country of origin!

[@chakoban5274]

And you thank, as a Turk, to a charlatan who tries every single trick to belittle and humiliate YOUR OWN country to the world ! Have some pride, have some honour! Your country could, indeed have some issues but shouldn't you keep its good and/or bad internal affairs inside, try to resolve nationally only and defend it against ill-intented clowns like this?? You should judge your soul my friend, you should ask WHO you are supporting by thanking this biased so called economist!

[@Dawizard1985]

Agla agla. Bide Atatürkcü olacaksiniz. Atatürk zamaninda herkesten hersey canini istemisti. Sen ve senin gibiler 3 kürüş için ağlıyorsunuz. İdam sizin gibilere şart.

[@chakoban5274]

@@Dawizard1985 Exactly! And the person to whom he cries and complains is the one who actually wants destruction to HIM and HIS country! This is disgrace at its peak!

[@umutefebozbyk6342]

I'll explain Turkey's economic status today in one sentence: "The bread i could buy with 1 Lira like 10 months before, is 5 Lira now." Like hell, before this Covid 19, i could go into a supermarket with 20 Lira and it would do enough to give me and 3 of my cousins an absolute feast on snacks. Now that 20 Lira, i can barely even buy the cheapest snacks and i am high school student. And 30 lira is like the best money my parents can give a week going through school. But still, thank God for not making us poor like child slaves that still exits today. And hope child slavery ends and those poor children can get happy lives. Edit: Sorry if my English was too bad.

[@Naedrelian]

As much as I enjoy the thorough and very clear analysis (I can follow most of it even as a complete economics newbie), I would love to see Patrick's hour-long meme-filled tea rant.

[@goodboid]

Please cover the Indian stock market when can. Foreign investors have withdrawn over 18billion dollars from the market over last 20 trading sessions, and no one is really talking about it.

[@khanch.6807]

Most likely tax disputes. India still has backdated British bureaucratic taxation system that is not favourable to foreign investment. Also the chain of bribes and non-transparency of the Indian market makes it very risky to invest. It can be more profitable if the market is developed properly.

[@aman4189]

The problem with the Turkish president ordegam is how he refuses to accept & admit Turkey is not a super power nor is it economically independent . The financial problem is global and way much bigger than Turkey to solve alone.

[@grzegorzmilanowski6782]

One of the next videos could be about other, younger european autocratic governments, Hungary and Poland. There are so many similarities to what Erdogan did in Turkey. Comparison of these two to Turkey could be eye-opening for some

[@kikobarros76]

Fantastic analisis!!!! I despise those who preach inflation brings growth, in fact it brings poverty... best regards my friendssss

[@gilbertfranklin1537]

Thanks, Patrick. I now understand Turkey's situation much better. Since they are a member of NATO, their geopolitical location between the Black Sea and Mediterranean is critical. Also, their moderate version of Islam, compared to many Muslim countries, should help when they need to interact with non-Muslim nations. I hope they can get some help from the IMF.

[@prw56]

I would be interested in hearing about the "basket case" developing economies you mentioned, both to gawk and for perspective.

[@grunchlk]

The Lira recovered 40% against the Swiss Frank overnight. Fourty percent. Overnight. How is that even possible?

[@george6977]

Perhaps international investors expect Erdogan to be replaced.

[@omeracar7311]

Hi there. Thanks for the well researched video. But I believe you missed considering a key part of the situation. Here is my 2 cents. The government started talking of reducing rates again in September -they did so before previous months but did now follow thru-They started reducing officially next meeting. At the start of their talking the USD rate was around 8.5. Later announced -as numbers come officially later- was that the current account went positive- a surplus not a deficit-in August first time in a while. Later in September and October surplus remained reaching 3 Billion USD in October -a two year high. Exports reached over 20Billion USD for the first time in history. Please note this is a level close to Brazil a much bigger and naturally richer nation. Also note this trade surplus was reached at USD rate 9.2 average in October. The rate has been higher since then benefiting exporters. Also note tourism revenue which was only 8 Billion USD for 2020 due to pandemic was 11 Billion just in 3rd quarter 2021. Second what you say about property values stocks are outdated. Prices recovered this year even in USD. And it is hard to find rentals in cities. May be it is the recovery, maybe lower rates, or post pandemic openings, existing housing stock in 2020 seems to be finished. Third maybe you followed up with recent developments but if you did not: Government actually increased interest rates and drastically. In an orthodox way of course. First they announced a Lıra deposit product with existing CB rate: 14 %. They attached to it a free put-that gives holders the difference between the USD value increase over time of the deposit and deposit rate in TL, if it is a positive number. This put value was calculated to be around 400-500 bps by some option experts. Then they announced the deposit rate can be up to 300bps OVER CB official rate. Hence can be 17%. Obviously since this deposit with a put is more valuable than a vanilla TL deposit, normal TL deposit rates increased to 19-20 as opposed to 15-16 before. So actually rates have been increased. Then what actually happened- forget about rhetoric - just look at what is done. 1. Lower announced rates drove investors outside of TL. To FX, Gold and as traditionally they do to property. 2. TL lost value so exports/tourism boomed and will stay buoyant as long as USD stays above 9-10 at current price levels. 3. Lowering rates in that 3-4 month period caused a stampede to property, many unsold properties got snatched up. A new housing building boom probably started-please note Turkey has still a rising population. 4. rates eventually increased . It is early dates but most people seem to find the new instrument appealing . The goal is not to turn FX accounts to TL IMO- with FX deposits at a record high of around 67% most people who do not believe in TL are already in FX anyways. IF the marginal buying of FX slows, TL starts to appreciate from the lows. As it did so far. Also note Turks have significant gold and fx holdings outside banking system-under the pillow as they say. 5. Turkey does not have energy resources but its is connected with pipelines bringing energy from 4 of its neighbours Russia Azerbaijan Iran and Iraq. for 2 of these countries Azerbaijan and Iraq-northern part- it is the only outlet to rest of world and sea. So Turkey can find energy relatively securely and cheaply-compared to Europe now for example. 6. Logistics -especially after pandemic seems to have benefited Turkey, as China seems to have become more expensive/remote for supply chains. Please note Turkey almost never closed during pandemic. And Turkish Airlines for example did not have a huge hit like other major liners because it managed to grow its profitable Cargo business. 7. Inflation is ongoing problem. Here the defacto rate increase and sudden stop during these events may help in near term. But it is a question what will happen if an export lead growth -as govt says it wants put more pressure on prices. Plus the effect of wage increases. So this recent policy changes are unlikely to be helpful in this area. With all these points what matters most is CA , if there will be a continuing even rising surplus. Question is can it be yearly-very very big change if that happens- even with these TL rates imports will remain down for a while. And tourism anecdotally is booming even in winter months and is now much diversified. The newly opening Galataport in Istanbul is teeming with Arabs Russian/ukrainians Iranians even Chinese. A Starbucks tall latte is around 1.2 USD compared to over 3-4 in Russia or Saudi Arabia. Tourists are seen almost marauding the clothing stores in malls-where unlike places like Dubai the merchandize is 90% made in Turkey. Lets see what happens..

[@Stew282]

Thanks for the additional, 'inside' view, Omar; much appreciated.

[@alperkara8405]

One problem that is not mentioned is Turkey is running on CA deficit (which you point out), and as the time passes it increases risks and blows up sooner or later (every 6-10 years). There is always some political views mixed making analysis hard. But as i see it: - Tukey will prob. be less effected from fed; because there are hardly any foreign investment that can escape atm, -As Tukey reaches an equlibrium on CA (0 deficit), need for currency (hot money) will be less, So the expectation seems right, at least not irrational: Turkey will either produce more and consume less or things will be balanced with increasing inflation and fx rates, no deficit will be allowed and no increase in external borrowing. Short term you cannot change the production structure so not to give deficit you need to increase fx rates, hoping structural parts will fix themselves. If all good then it will work but if no fix is achived in the structural parts it will increase inflation and it will become chronic. But the thing is; if all done same with positive and rational messages instead of political rethoric the pain could have been avoided (indeed if the man never had spoken so far but done the same things, it would have been way way better). For example TCMB could have said deficit and structural problems are pressurising the system for the past 40 years; so it will use its powers to reach the goals for long term stability; 0 CA deficit, 10 or lower unemployment, 8 or less inflation; fx rates would prob. never go above 10. Instead the guy said we are doing it because Islam tells so; well Islam never mentions any tax except the yearly 2.5%, also strongly forbits stealing money which all governments do by having a managed inflation, so it is not Islam when printing money and collecting taxes but Islam when spending, actually noone bought it, he forgot at the end of the day people decide with whats on the menu when they sit on the table...

[@Stew282]

@Maik Müller Don't be too quick to jump on the 'hate train' train! Erdogan's religious views do have a strong influence on his decisions, and it is rarely a positive one. When the leader of a democracy introduces theocratic policies, it is not unfair or hateful to consider (and criticise) his religious motives. Islam, and the views of its adherents, are no more above criticism than Christianity or any other religion. That said, I agree it's rather sad that Omar's comment has received so few likes in comparison with some crap ones, but YT is still social media - not as shitty as Twitter, but still the majority of comments are still infantile pap.

[@edwardsl8016]

Turkey is a G20 nation, and it was elevated to that status since 1975. Erdogan started as a mayor of Istanbul when he cleaned it up and people could see the difference what the city was and what it became, and that is why they trust him and love him. I'm not saying all Turks love him, but the religious Muslims do, The EU does not want Turkey into its union, yet Turkey has the largest army in NATO protecting EU after the USA. Economically, Turkey is right after Germany and the UK, but it has one advantage that is its population is still increasing which those two do not! So the future is bright for Turkey. once Turkey starts extracting oil and gas from the Mediterranean Sea, Turkey will be a true economic force to reckon with. The EU knows that and are in a dilemma, whether to let it in the EU now before it becomes a more powerful nation or not. Ironically Turkey later on might not even need to be in the EU mess if it becomes rich with natural oil and gas resources.

[@SethTheOrigin]

@@edwardsl8016 you’re a babbling idiot

[@brendan1516]

This is brilliant!!! I would happily watch and share an economic series where Patrick goes throughout the world and explains the current and historical state of their economy and markets.

[@Sarsol1989]

Seems that the Skyscraper Index (Number and Height of newly build skyscrapers are leading indicator for economic downturn) still holds.

[@brotherjay5562]

Great job brother. I'm going to turkey. Collecting information.

[@alpmarangoz]

Good overview. You may shoot a follow up, now that Erdoğan is coming up with something like Dollar pegged interest rate on TL accounts. It would be nice to hear your thoughts about that.

[@randomgames6355]

As a foreigner who works here in Turkey, what's happening right now is so sad even though I earn dollar.

[@johnmunro4952]

The gloves came off with that tea crack boyo!🤨

[@horsthorst11]

This is why religion should not be involved with the ordinary social and political activities of a country aka why secularism rules.

[@bobtheagent9087]

Yeah stop spreading lies.

[@stealths15]

China and NK comes to my mind. And the former USSR

[@j3lny425]

It is a surprise to see Turkey more closed off in this sense than China

[@dznuts123]

Turkey is Islamic… what did you expect? Chinese are culturally more pragmatic.

[@genghiskhan3914]

@@dznuts123 SECULAR STATE NOT NAME OF MUSLİM STATE

[@fatihsaidduran]

@@dznuts123 Wtf does it have to do with Islam? Btw the current gov is "islamic" for show and voters

[@vitawater4259]

Islamic finance frowns on interest. The modern economy is built on risk and reward, interest being the gage of measure.

[@fatihsaidduran]

@@vitawater4259 Fed Funds Rate is 0.25 and in the EU it's near zero, while in Turkey it's 14 percent. Are the US and the EU more Islamic than Turkey? No obviously.

[@deepblueskyshine]

From a neighbouring country regular citizen point of view, appart from corruption, polical voluntarism and malinvestments in expensive megaprojects there are some other reasons for value of investments in turkish economy to fall. Competition of chinese products that threw turkish cheap industrial products out of european and middle east markets and chinese taking share in market of midle range and expensive products. Another reason is lowering the quality and price grouth of turkish agricultural products that reintroduced production and export of the same products from semi-collapsed farmers of south and eastern Europe countries many of which are now in EU thus in domestic market. All these factors together combined with lower demad in pandemia and withdraw of foreign capital investments that provided large portion of fresh money appart from export tipped off currency balance, but the debts in foreign currencies have to be paid.

[@Radagast49230]

Very informative, you normally don't see anybody in the west digging that deep into Turkey. It gets overlooked a lot especially regarding its economy.

[@IsakKazazic]

Oh wow what a great channel

[@jaredmartinez1597]

Jesus Patrick, you did not have to go out killing Brits like that 😂

[@OverkillGamingPC]

As a Brit, I completely agree with you on PG tips.

[@OverkillGamingPC]

@@whatapp5106 Why would anyone contact someone who has such poor grammar?

[@wydopensports8335]

Thank you for all the info!

[@omarmccord7058]

I had no idea Turkey was so beautiful of a country! @ 16:28 : holy moly is that a real location or an artistic impression? If they can get this mess sorted out reasonably, I would love to visit there and invest into their tourism industry. Great episode!

[@silent_monk]

Hi Patrick. Thanks for this interesting video. Would you consider doing an analysis of South Africa's economy? Another interesting emerging market case study.

[@kai-kp7zi]

This was so absolute and on point. All I can say about the "vision" and completely empty promises and expectations of a dying future is: A man can dream aye. Not going to babble on and on about anything political. Great video.

[@FalkinerTim]

Very sad for the Turkish people. It shows how important it is to keep the name of your country as clean as possible. In Australia we are increasingly being seen as environmentally irresponsible and our freedoms are being pared away. To quote GK Chesterton “When you break the big laws, you do not get liberty; you do not even get anarchy. You get the small laws.”

[@world-classgoldcopperoilde7761]

WHAT?

[@robertwalker5991]

Turkish interest rates are about 14%. That seems extraordinarily high to me. I would have thought the killer blow was absence of tourists. I don't know about Turkey's covid policies but it have had an effect. I realize that there is a direct nexus between interest rates and exchange rates, but I also think Muhammad had a point about interest. Don't forget he lived at a time when economics was pure, no legal mechanisms modifying the excesses.

[@robertwalker5991]

@Patrick Boyle • I did hit the like button. Your material is amongst the very best on KZbin. As for cryptocurrencies .. no thanks

[@george6977]

If inflation is 21%, with interest rates at 14% then the real interest rate is -7% so extraordinarily cheap not high.

[@gman43]

That’s a fake account, nothing to do with Patrick. It’s a common scam on all financial KZbin channels

[@robertwalker5991]

@@gman43 thanks. I've never seen it before. Given KZbin's perspicacity and ubiquity I would have thought it would prevent that sort of thing.

[@robertwalker5991]

@@neues3691 you are probably right but it does not bode well for the world's economies. The question is: when is inflation not inflation but reflective of mismatches in supply and demand? Or in stock and housing markets which aren't measured.

[@TisDana]

The first time I went to Turkey was in 2010. I went back in 2014 and the difference in social mood was palpable.

[@rezzob]

over a year later, where is it?

[@pedrolmlkzk]

in two more weeks

[@samsonsoturian6013]

Grinding lower slowly.

[@mistersir3020]

No country needs an independent central bank. The central bank has to promote growth.

[@WilliamBrwn]

These banks are blood suckers. They suck out your energy in the form of labour...

[@vipinbabu7013]

No

[@sampotter4455]

Great overview! Seems now (November 2022) is about time to revisit this topic for an update.

When your father in law makes you Finance minister you know you're being written out of the show.

[@user-zo6xg8bx4l]

Being ruled by a religious fanatic never ends well.

[@kicapanmanis1060]

Turkey used to be pretty secular for many decades though including early on in Erdogan's years. But yeah he has slowly gone more fundamentalist in recent years.

[@fenroel6148]

@@kicapanmanis1060 He is a populist , he goes with the Stream. Lot of "islamists" actually hate hım and he is persecuting them as well.

[@fenroel6148]

@BİLİM, FELSEFE VE EĞİTİM Genelde hırsızların elini kesiyoz knk biz jsjsjsj

[@fenroel6148]

@BİLİM, FELSEFE VE EĞİTİM Biliyorum kuralları kardeşim benim , haklısın. Karşı güruhtan sandım seni, onlar dinine biraz dahi bağlı olana İslamcı der müslümanla akıllarınca dalga geçmeye çalışırlar.Bende şakayla karışık dobralık yaparak hafiften dalga geçmek için öyle yazmıştım.

[@tanura5830]

@@kicapanmanis1060 Fundamentalist? He just goes with what's popular. Fundamentalist islam is not popular in Turkey. He is conservative yes.

[@onyx99-v1e]

Good vid man!

[@downo]

This is a very complete and accurate analysis of the Turkish economy. However, besides Erdogan's "Islamic" approach to interest rates, we must not forget two other things that have impacted every single citizen of Turkey. 1) The many threats of incoming Syrian and Afghan refugees who have not only resulted in a sudden boom in population, but also lesser jobs and fraud in the job market. These "refugees" were also given Turkish citizenship without any naturalisation process, leading to national security threats but also another unfair practice to get more voters for the current coalition. 2) Perhaps this also caused the fact that Turkish citizens don't have trust in their economy anymore. We know that after electing a new government, typically people's trust in the economy restores. That hasn't happened in Turkey for over 20 years. I will always fail to understand why Erdogan and his nepotistic surroundings are still where they are. Turkey has lost so much of its potential, it's really just mind-blowing.

[@cyllananassan9159]

today the Turkish lira has gone up from 18/USD to 13/USD, based on some measures to be taken by Erdogan to protect the TRL , do you have any comments on that?

[@josephpeeler5434]

The Turkush central bank needs to turn off the printing presses. The same can be said of the Federal Reserve here in America. We Americans will be in the same boat as Turks in a few years time.

[@BringTheRains]

Interesting point. That happened 12 hours ago from this time stamp. I would be interested as to why on God’s green earth why it changed so rapidly.

[@billm3210]

I just asked the same it blew my mind that it made such massive gains even if Erdogan announced he'd back Lira deposits. Even banking intervention wouldn't give such a gain. Did he just deplete all their reserves gold and FX or a hidden tax/capital control we don't know about.

[@LegendNinja41]

@@billm3210 just a ''levelling off'' perhaps, neary 20/1 was extreme.

[@divineneos4392]

@@BringTheRains so i was gonna buy a pair of jordans for my birthday which are almost a full minimum wage amount of money here. then i realised that a dollar was 18 liras. Omg it was 12 or something a week ago imma go mad

[@hasanx8317]

The talk about people fearing talking about the economy is BS ... I'm in turkey, and everyone is talking good and bad about the subject. The opposition media channels are not wasting a breath trying to find a way to distort the image of the economical miracle that Erdoğan has done in turkey (once again) at that night ... While people are celebrating the economical victories in the streets.

[@Gakoffical]

victories??

[@djmit44]

Thanks, you covered the essential tea-based digs, as well as some really important information and analysis about Turkey’s political and economic situation.

[@roberth3094]

I am from the USA. Are you sure you're talking about Turkey? It all sounds like what's happening here it the states since Biden has taken the reins.🤓

[@jamcho6224]

What islam say is "don't gamble at in anticipation of profit and don't profit from speculation on that anticipation from the gamble" turkey doesn't have Islamic constitution. Those turkish businessmen properties need to be taken.

[@khanch.6807]

Shorting Turkish economy is pretty good as long as Erdogan remains dilusional.

[@TbirdThunderstruck]

Shorting a Turkish index? I was thinking of buying. 🤔

[@khanch.6807]

@@TbirdThunderstruck Buy when Erdogan raises interest rate and the Lira stabilises.

[@TbirdThunderstruck]

@@khanch.6807 OK thanks. 4%+ dividend on Turkish index, S&p 500 is approx. 1.3% pe of turkish market approx. 8 or 9, S&p 500 is 38, much higher gdp growth in Turkey 5%-6% per annum, US averaging 2-3%. I am scared because of political instability and very unstable currency, but I am thinking there is good value at the same time.