Pax Russica: Will Russia's Defeat Lead to More Wars?

[@stephanledford9792]

Something that wasn't mentioned in this video is the fact that China has hinted in publications (which means the CCP has approved the comments) that some of the Russian Far East was taken unfairly from China and is historical Chinese territory. Those territories, and even more in the sparsely settled areas north of these territories, are full of natural resources that would benefit China.

[@hoantran041975]

China has been waiting hundred year for this opportunity and the timing is arriving now once the great Russia black bear turning out to be a puppy dog in her hand.

[@floridaman4073]

Russia still has nukes

[@stephanledford9792]

@@floridaman4073 Yes, and so does China. That means that if China invades, Russia must make a decision as to whether it will use nukes on China, knowing that it will mean every major Russian city being destroyed in retaliation. IDK what the Russian will do, and unless / until this happens, I don't think the Russians do either.

[@styrfry]

China has regained *all* the territory it lost during what they call the "unequal treaties" of the 1800s... except for Outer Manchuria that Russia still holds to this day. Ironic, isn't it? As juicy as a target as Outer Manchuria is, I highly doubt China would attack Russia first _unless_ Russia was in the process of imploding+balkanizing. China has too much to lose by angering Russia otherwise.

[@MaFo82]

Supposedly Putin have promised China exclusive rights to the resources in exchange for China's continued support in the invasion of Ukraine.

[@KABModelsExtra]

Russia in 2021 - 2nd best army in the world Russia in 2022 - 2nd best army in Ukraine Russia in 2023 - 2nd best army in Russia

[@jimjefftube]

Very clever!! 😂

[@FLUFFYCAT_PNW]

👏 well done, fellow human. 🏆

[@Cnupoc]

​@@FLUFFYCAT_PNWtoy can't get more bot than this! 😂😂😂😂😂😂😂

[@FLUFFYCAT_PNW]

@@Cnupoc lolol definitely. Like, sure.... That's what a human would say for sure I'm ded 😂

[@jeffbig4549]

This comment has aged scarily well.

[@PopeSixtusVI]

I was literally looking for this video last night and found a bunch of Warographics were suddenly missing. Make sure someone is archiving these.

[@cheutho]

It's very odd... I'm subscribed to the channel, but this video isn't in my subscriptions list... but it did show up on the main page. Perhaps KZbin is having issues...

[@noahlucas7458]

I was gonna say I thought this video already came out...

[@stonewalljackson4660]

@@noahlucas7458 it did I watch it last week for sure

[@tomhenry897]

Common complaint on many of his videos No explanation

[@LennoxMatt1]

Pretty sure it's KZbin flagging things

[@Tounushi]

The reason Karelia was an SSR for 16 years was simple: It wasn't the Karelian SSR. It was the Finno-Karelian/Karelo-Finnish SSR. It was supposed to include Finland. We prevented that from happening.

[@Nick-rs5if]

Bless Finland. 😊

[@theshadowman1398]

You cowards are so afraid of Russia that you went hiding behind nato’s skirt at a speed of sound

[@fillosof66689]

The Finns overwhelmingly lost the so called continuation war, and thus didn't prevent anything. The soviet leadership after WW2 decided that having Finland as a neutral buffer state and an economic link to the West was worth more than its annexation.

[@cSwDamian]

​@@fillosof66689😂😂😂 Soviets lost badly and gave a reason for Hitler to invade them

[@I-HAVE-A-BOMB]

​@@cSwDamianI'm all for spitting on commies but they took a significant amount of land from Finland. How is that a loss?

[@stihlnz]

Very well done Simon.. great research for a potentially grim future. I was in Azerbaijan after the first Nagorno Karabakh war ending 94. Over 1 million refugees from both sides .... Tragic stories of tortured elderly villagers with broken feet being returned to Az in exchange for electricity which Az controlled hobbling across the checkpoint, ... Russian soldiers renting tanks and ammunition to Azerbaijan @ $200 US per day. The story's are almost unbelievable in their horror.

[@Muaddibize]

Well, a Russian victory would certainly lead to more wars. Wars of aggression by Russia on its next unsuspecting victim. So I, for one, would take my chances with a defeated Russia. Even if there are more wars, they would be small scale compared to what Russia is doing.

[@Mortablunt]

Russia hasn’t waged an expansionist conflict since the 1850s, and that was coming to the rescue of Crimea from Khanate rule by the request of the Crimeans. Since then, the only countries Russia has been at war with either attack Russia, first or word, causing harm to a people who requested Russia protect them. For the past eight years, Ukraine has murder tens of thousands of its “own people” people in the southeast and has refused all possible measures of peace. These people have strong ties to Russia, including direct family and friends relations, and these people beg the Russian government to save their kin from genocide so Russia is doing so. This is like, claiming Russia is the aggressor here is like claiming A rapist is a real victim of the crime, because a cop shot him instead of letting him do what he wanted.

[@recoil53]

Poland and the Baltic states aren't unsuspecting. Even before the invasion, they were the highest spenders (as % of GDP) in the military.

[@Muaddibize]

@@recoil53 Unsuspected was a metaphor for innocent. And Moldova would be next. The Baltic States are to tough a nut to crack. Moldova on the other hand is allot smaller allot poorer, has no army and a 30% hardcore Russian sympathizers minority

[@ARandomUser6969]

​@@recoil53 those are NATO countries, it would be possible for Russia to aim for Moldova and Georgia and Azerbaijan if they weren't so weak against the Ukrainian army.

[@Dave5843-d9m]

I don’t trust the longest established NATO members to fully support a new member under article four. The Baltics, Poland and Finland seem to agree.

[@Zach2Wheels]

This war is wild... the will of freedom is a crazy powerful emotion. Keep it up Ukraine, your fight inspires the world.

[@drikkiecoetzee-id3up]

When you are saying world you actually mean the brainwashed sheep in Europe and the USA without one rational thought in their heads.

[@Zach2Wheels]

@Brain Peanut brain 🧠 peanut 🥜 😆😆😆😆😆😆 yep checks out 🤣 !!! BAHAHAHA! Shwoo boy I haven't laughed that hard since Russia lost Belgorod!!!! 🤣 I'm hilarious 😂 😃 😄 😁 🤣

[@petriew2018]

@@SlovakChestnut12233 you're off-message, bro. Their supposed to be nazi's, remember? And, i'm sorry, but nobody's stupid enough to believe you even can be both.... are they?

[@justinweber4977]

​@@SlovakChestnut12233 What does that have to do with anything?

[@SlovakChestnut12233]

@@justinweber4977 the winners will not be Russia nor Ukraine.

[@danielknapp5189]

Happy to see this one reuploaded, hope that other ones can get reuploaded too.

[@kyleslater5245]

That’s why I thought I watched it before.

[@machelvet9594]

To answer the question in the title: Inside the Russian Federation, probably so. Internationally, probably not. If Russia is defeated in the Ukraine, China will certainly think twice about an invasion of Taiwan. The war in Ukraine and the defeat of the invaders might be the best way for the world's democracies to discourage aggressive monocracies to abstain from invading other countries. At least this is Volodymyr Zelenskyy's view as proposed during the G7 meeting in Hiroshima this week.

[@PeterJavi]

China will think twice about an invasion into Taiwan, yes. Not into Russia though. They've got some very resource rich territories up East they might be interested in taking. Chechnya, Dagestan and other regions might also rise up once they find the opportunity. If Russia is weakened enough, it'll collapse in on itself and it will do so fairly rapidly.

[@recoil53]

@@PeterJavi China won't need to invade the Russian Far East. Russia needs support and is under sanctions. Those territories will be signed over. They might call it something else to save face, but that's essentially what will happen.

[@steffengustavsen9678]

@@PeterJavi yes they would be much better off as independent. Just like the success story of south sudan. Or Norway which was 30% poorer than sweden until we discover oil. Yeah independence works great. The best thing would be a world where every single individual was a country.

[@Gidi66]

​@@recoil53 why would they need to take it? When they are already just throwing paper at Russia that's currently running it's currency into the ground, so Russia does what ever China wants to get more money, so more Russia mining and drilling, already happening in the north pole circle.

[@Freespeechrestrictedonyoutube]

I'd like to smoke what you are smoking because I'll bet my life savings you are wrong

[@ltcoltealeaf]

Wait? Hasn't this video already been made on this channel?

[@hoodsom3]

first one probably got removed or something

[@DogeickBateman]

A lot of his videos were taken down so it's a reupload

[@blackmagemasher4031]

He had issues with age restrictions and violence warning. I think these are more tame

[@ltcoltealeaf]

@blackmagemasher4031 ah fair, I did initially wonder if it was an update, but alas no

[@karlhui4303]

Although this is an interesting topic to reupload with newer graphics, it would have been nice if the content itself was also updated to reflect the current battlefield situation as well.

[@MartinBohun]

yup, "it would have been nice..." This way it feels like ramblings of some delusional paranoid schizophrenic, given Ukraine was just defeated in Bakhmut couple of days ago... and the promised great Ukrainian "spring" counteroffensive seems to be - well, not really happening

[@AllenLinnenJr]

He's all yeah the defeat of the Russians and I'm like. Didn't the Russians just take Bakhmut?

[@hannahp1108]

I mean he does try to make these as current as he possibly can but production takes time and things on the ground change

[@DuBaas007]

@@AllenLinnenJr They took Bakhmut, about 8 months later than they hoped. And now the Ukrainians have made gains in the hills surrounding Bakhmut.

[@Werrf1]

@@hannahp1108 Pretty much this exact video was released a year or so ago. I think this is a re-upload?

[@TH-Insider-HT]

Concerning Armenia, I don't think the US would step in given that the American populace would generally see it as a waste of resources and time. If I had to guess, a majority of Americans either don't know where Armenia is or didn't know it actually existed. Humanitarian aid would probably be the extent of American involvement.

[@darter9000]

It would also be very strange for the US to step in on behalf of a CSTO member against a Neutral nation as well

[@TH-Insider-HT]

@@darter9000 I can't exactly remember the context of the video forgive me, but I think it was in the event Armenia leaves the CSTO and as a result Azerbaijan tries something. I completely agree with you that the US wouldn't even touch Armenia if it is still part of the CSTO, that could be a major political incident.

[@ignitionfrn2223]

1:20 - Chapter 1 - Watching the watchman 6:10 - Chapter 2 - Imposed peace 10:10 - Chapter 3 - "Thing" fall apart 15:05 - Chapter 4 - Days of future wars 19:25 - Chapter 5 - Balkanisation - Chapter 6 -

[@gaamesso8002]

This just sounds like a great business opportunity for the Military-Industrial Complex.

[@TheHuntamanas]

i was fighting near Kremina, Torski and Bakhmut.. our losses are big.. but were able to take out hundreads of them. So.. is just the matter of time when they will run out of people.. if you can call them that way.. in reality they were pushing like a zombies all the time.. trench war was horible.. we were able to hear them talking righnt next to us in the trench, and then... boom :D it is sad to do that kind of things in 21 century... But we are holding.. Slava Ukraine! BTW i am foreign volunteer.

[@FirstLast-di5sr]

Thank you for your service ☮❤ Slava Ukraine!

[@matrixmaid4042]

Brave !

[@williamalexander9485]

Nothing here is evidenced by victory. Such is the purpose of propaganda. Russia keeps rolling

[@schwarzer9523]

Hope you make it out alive and win. Slava Ukraine

[@alastairbrewster4274]

Where are you from ? I’m guessing you’re not British or American?

[@Dave5843-d9m]

Back in the early 1970s my school geography teacher said the Yugoslavia looked peaceful but nobody knows how Tito has done it. I’m sure he actually knew the real reason. It’s a shame I can’t ask him what he thinks of the soviet areas today.

[@gurglejug627]

It's no secret how Tito did it - had a strong military, ensured everyone had more than enough, threatened no one and had a very strong and intrusive secret police.

[@prestonjones1653]

There are two ways to ensure a stable multi ethnic state: Tito's Yugoslavia (economic prosperity and strong secret police) and Gaspar's Paraguay (forcibly interbreed the various groups until they are all extinct and a new one s created). Considering how Yugoslavia went, and how there still is a Paraguay, I think one has proven a more long-lasting solution than the other.

[@collinward1241]

@@prestonjones1653you’re forgetting that Paraguay would had been partitioned by Brazil and Argentina at the end of the Paraguay war had the United States stepped in.

[@Grisu19840]

Sadly the introduction to this video didn't age well. At least, at the time of me writing this.

[@FreeFallingAir]

This has been on my mind a lot, what a crazy crazy world we live in.

[@Hankbob_Hillpants]

Yessss, soon, soon Canada shall take its rightful place as the biggest country in the world

[@Jack-zf3rz]

Then they’ll all be sorry.

[@sqocks8254]

This video seems to have been uploaded a while ago, IIRC. Did KZbin take issue with the previous video?

[@DMeat0902]

Premature to make an early judgement call on who will win or lose during the. Unfortunately, this war is still far from over & I agree that more wars will come in our lifetime.

[@tessjuel]

It's easy to tell who will win or lose: Nobody will win. The only real question si who will lose the most.

[@GrrrTurtle]

Somebody recently watched Streetfighter the movie with Van Damme and it shows.

[@HERPDe]

I am here again to ask that Warographics also be put out as a podcast

[@MaxRideout]

Why not just listen to the video? What's the difference?

[@HERPDe]

@@MaxRideout literally just the amount of data. Bad cell reception in spots. Audio only is faster to load.

[@recoil53]

Why not just download? Most videos aren't big.

[@male_maid5951]

your forecast on future violence in the karabac region seems to be pretty accurate....

[@KW-qd1bi]

If this channel reuploads all the videos its taken down id happily watch them again

[@kiwi_commander]

Absolutely, and you can already see this with the Freedom of Russia Legion (anti-Putin partisans) attacking and occupying Belgorod. People can already see the cracks in the Russian state and I wouldn't be surprised if others (Chechnya, Yakutia, and many others) take this opportunity to regain their independence.

[@wafflecopter9296]

Half the ukranian unit was slaughtered or captured by the end of the probe attack. Dont get too far ahead of yourself over this bruh

[@MotherChucker-k4o]

@@wafflecopter9296 It’s not the physical, it’s the idea. Russian citizens attacked Russian troops loyal to Putin and won. Other minorities in the federation will see this and almost certainly follow suit.

[@josecano326]

@@wafflecopter9296 tbh they probably were just trying to prove a point. I highly doubt they actually wanted to capture russian territory hahaha. They went in, russian troops retreated and they made a fool out of russia for several hours. That was probably the goal all along

[@wafflecopter9296]

@@josecano326 they are dead because of it. It was an attack only for headlines and now many ukranian fighters are dead for something that will be forgotten in a week. It looks better for them with these headlines instead of the Bahkmute capture. That's literally all this is

[@petriew2018]

@@wafflecopter9296 this point of yours might carry some weight if Russia hadn't spent 8 months and 10s of thousands of lives trying to do the same thing to a much smaller city called Bakhmut. If you're going to argue Ukraine's attack meant nothing, how fucking humiliating is the Russian 'victory' in Bakhmut?

[@asterixdogmatix1073]

Glad you finally touched on the Russian nuclear arsenal being appropriated by various breakaway Oblasts and who knows who else.

[@grahamstrouse1165]

There’s a better solution. Most of those Russian nuclear warheads can be repurposed as reactor fuel. Disarm your enemy & turn his weapons into zero-carbon energy. 😊

[@rexkraft_]

Nukes decay extremely quickly, and with the collapse of russia, there would be no resources left to maintain them, so they should only be a threat for a relatively short period of time before they become unusable (if they are not scrap by now due to corruption) the real threat would be dirty bombs

[@nathanhough8156]

It's not that big of an issue Nuclear weapons have a self life, It is completely unknown if Russia has maintained any of its nukes. Considering they do not maintain any of their other weapons...

[@kriswhartonful]

What happens to the nukes if the center falls?

[@testuser2709]

Looks like the Armenia prediction was right anyway

[@seanbrown701]

Great piece Sir.

[@jasonbusker5273]

As always, I really enjoyed your video. However, I found myself wishing that a map of the boarders would have helped for context. Also, what about the issue of their nuclear weapons. That is what has me worried. This is the first time I've ever commented on any of your channels, so I'll take the opportunity to say you and your team do an amazing job. Thank you for all of your hard work.

[@recoil53]

When the Soviet Union broke up, one of the first things the US State Department & military did was try to account for all the nukes. Now if the Russia Federation breaks up into little parts, each one may be too scared to give up their nukes, it could be a real mess. And the US can't really be seen flying in and grabbing the nukes.

[@SUIndian31]

@@recoil53 If the actual control of them stays in Moscow (as was the case in Ukraine) it might not really matter as much what happens in the little parts.

[@vamp3340]

They can't even afford to arm their infantry, what makes you think they correctly budget the billions required to upkeep nucular warheads that long? The amount of corruption in that state, Its practically a guarantee their nukes don't work. You can't just let them sit there for 60+ years, you actually have to routinely upkeep your nukes to make sure they work 😂 they probably don't have any working nucular warheads anymore.

[@recoil53]

@@SUIndian31 They have all scene what happened to Ukraine. They also want leverage.

[@hankjones3527]

Nukes are certainly a big concern, but unlike conventional weapons they can't be used by just anyone, they have security measures like codes. How good are those security measures? Good question. But they do give time for Russia and other world powers some time to track them down and secure them. In theory at least.

[@mikechristopherson6035]

I didn't really need to know your Rx, but appreciate your honesty. It's your main selling point. Do whatever you want creatively, but what you're doing now is helpful and I think, important. Thanks.

[@thepeff]

As an American who remembers the Boston Marathon Bombing I don't think Russia's keeping the peace. At least they aren't in Dagestan

[@muleskinnerfilms6719]

Nicely done, again

[@foerfan6400]

been binging your videos and i love em, one tip tho, add more pictures of maps when your talking of new regions and countries, it will add some nice visual context. Cheers

[@Architek79]

Great job on the content and presentation

[@roxylius7550]

This video aged like milk

[@atic8416]

is this video being constanly reuploaded?

[@rashkavar]

Tartarstan's big issue geopolitically would be its position. If Russia completely fragments it's not necessarily a problem, but if they were to split off and most of Russia held together, they would be landlocked and surrounded by Russia. This is...not a great situation to be in, particularly when you've just declared independence in a less-than-cooperative manner from the surrounding nation, and particularly when that split carves out a notable amount of oil and gas reserves. There's a couple of countries that are fairly stable in that position - Lesotho and Vatican City are the two that come to mind, and at least in the Italy/Vatican City situation, things are pretty cooperative. (I'm not familiar enough with the situation in South Africa or Lesotho to comment on that relationship). So it's not completely unprecedented. But given Russian politics, I suspect that Tartarstan would at least have a very bloody path to independence.

[@Mortablunt]

But why would they want to? that one of the largest and wealthiest republic that enjoy a high degree of not only domestic prestige, but also cultural prestige in the broader Turkic world, and it’s all thanks to the largesse of the Russian state.

[@just-a-purple-ork]

​@@MortabluntWhy wouldn't local elites want to boost their power and get out from under the thumb of outside people? Also Putin has been centralizing power lately, which will piss local elites off.

[@bilboriches7216]

​@@MortabluntYeah, sure, russia having 20% of russians living below poverty, 40$ pensions, no houuse maintanace with a lot of home having icycles made of piss growing from the cealing sure isnt a reason to leave russia. And nobody wants to have their pasport used as toilet paper abroad like a lot of countries do when you present them a russian pasport.

[@prestonjones1653]

​@@Mortablunt Precisely. It's always the rich who are always whining.

[@maka6134]

Because its slowly losing what they have? Whenever i see battalions in Ukraine losing a lot of men theyre almost always non ethnic russians often tartars. So yes why would they want to continue to die and fight moscows wars when they can become independent and live peacefully. Enjoying their freedom while also not having to give a huge chunk of those natural resources to Russia. @@Mortablunt

[@marksizer3486]

More maps would be nice. My geographic knowledge is pitiful. Great content!

[@timoleary8751]

I always want a pink donut after watching these videos

[@russianarkadiy]

Why did you remove and re-upload the video?

[@tylerbruce5731]

I believe Ossetia is oh-set-ee-ah. I used to assume it was oh-see-sha but when I asked some Ossetians in Georgia they were confused and indicated it was the former.

[@giorgi5675]

Its called Samachablo (სამაჩაბლო) not Osetia. And it is a part of Georgia like Abkhazia.

[@tylerbruce5731]

@@giorgi5675 sure. My point was how the word Ossetia is actually pronounced.

[@Mortablunt]

People there don’t seem to want to be part of Georgia, probably because you keep on murdering them for the crime of not being Georgian.

[@tsartomato]

@@giorgi5675 georgia is a part of usa it's bordered by Tennessee and North Carolina

[@ReidHenderson]

I'm glad you made this video I've played this out in my head ever since Ukraine proved it's will to fight.

[@ChicanoOne760]

Ukraine is getting hammered. The u.s. is paying them to fight Russia. Corruption at its finest

[@DollarGeneral_Is_a_Plague]

Wtf is wrong with all you people? This isn't Ukraine's war!!!

[@henzoko5946]

Ukraine is clearly losing. US is fighting to the last Ukranian and people are blind to it

[@basedstreamingatcozy-dot-t7126]

lmao, cope, Ukraine has only been propped up by unprecedented levels of western support, and they're dying in droves. Russia is winning

[@DollarGeneral_Is_a_Plague]

@@basedstreamingatcozy-dot-t7126 this whole channel is propaganda

[@mangatom192]

Nagorno-Karabahk just fell. Damn it really is starting...

[@Deridus]

This makes me think of Sabaton's Versailles. I paraphrase, "Can a war really end all war? Will this war bring another war? It's the war to end all war!"

[@TheAmos1]

the first 3 minutes is exactly why I keep mentioning, things about the future like, trade agreements, highlighting Ukrainian business innovation, other goods and services and asking soldiers what they have planned after. in the grand sense, no matter the disrupting chaos happening now you have to lay a foundation for the future because disrupting chaos happens everyday to varying degrees. it's these things have to be thought about now to avoid a collapse into something like Afghanistan or any other blighted nation example of a unstable inter-fighting region. it's always been a fine line that has always been defined by how we create the society foundations after the horrific conflicts and the things we contine to do to ourselves. 🤷‍♂️ great video. 😃👍

[@dereksollows9783]

One of your finest SImon (& co.)

[@pandastical9205]

We need to stop treating all wars as instantly evil. Wars are bad for people, of course. But wars are also often necessary and just. Sometimes you just need war to improve the state or region, or be independent or whatever.

[@benjauron5873]

It's not that war is good or bad. Look at it this way. People from the 60s say things like "give peace a chance" and "make love not war," but what they fail to understand is that there's two kinds of peace. There's the kind of peace based on mutual respect, understanding and benefit for all parties involved. That's the good kind of peace. That's the kind of peace worth fighting for. But then there's the kind of peace based on intimidation and submission. That's the bad kind of peace. War is preferable to that kind of peace. See?

[@trs2470]

“An unjust peace is better than a just war.” Cicero

[@Mortablunt]

So said a man on the winning side of an unjust peace.

[@basedstreamingatcozy-dot-t7126]

@@benjauron5873 that's gay cringe lmao What type of 'peace' you live in is completely subjective The Taliban: "War is preferable to this American 'peace' based on intimidation and submission!"

[@benjauron5873]

@@basedstreamingatcozy-dot-t7126 Ever been to Afghanistan? Do you really think the Taliban were the ones who were preaching mutual respect and understanding? Do you really think the Americans were the ones who were practicing intimidation?

[@rmadrid6119]

Love your blogs… Scary as they may be…

[@sebaseba6710]

Loving these videos Simon amd team

[@crimestick6648]

The Shattner is strong with this one.

[@Warrior0fDoom]

Simon's beard is so manly I'm waiting for it to pull out a cue card and start adding its own commentary.

[@colgategilbert8067]

Muscovy has been repressing a host of peoples for 500 years. With Russia's horrible demographics and the Ukraine War accelerating the loss of Young Russian men for their Army, along with increased emigration of the same, Russia will soon not have enough men to enforce Pax Russia. That, unfortunately, will mean pay back time.

[@theforsakeen177]

where do you think they are emigrating exactly? the whole EU is hostile to them, russia gained millions of people since this war began not only by preventing further emigration but by taking in more from both ukrainians and crimeans.

[@colgategilbert8067]

@@theforsakeen177 Many of the former Soviet Republics. Georgia, The Stan's, Turkey, The Baltic States, Finland. This is all coming from Russian expat bloggers.

[@theforsakeen177]

@@colgategilbert8067 I have seen what some of them write, I doubt they are even true ethnic russians from the animosity and contempt they show towards everything russian, really the best indication of Putin’s popularity is that unlike Ukraine he hasn’t had to resort to forbidding all males leaving the country. Even western estimates given to exaggerating all loses from russia will tell you only a few hundreds thousands to a million maximum left the country so far, this include women and children in a country of over 140 millions people, over 80% of them ethnic russians. Just their gains in ukraine and Crimea have already offset those. Emigration to countries like Georgia, The Stan's or Turkey are plausible as they are all either friendly to russia or still under their influence, even then it would be less than 0.1% of their population, akin to the protest after Iraq or Vietnam in the US. But Europe though? No way. All of Russia’s europeans neighbors in the west have a fanatical hatred/suspicion of russia, they views all their citizens as potential fifth column for a invasion of their country, things like banning Russian athletes from sports, russian books from libraries, and even russian dogs and cats from competitions. That stuff has only increased Russian patriotism and made them feel like people just hate them and their culture (similar to Americans after 9/11). Putin sold it as the West/Europe/America ganging up on Russia and that's exactly what it's turned out to be. This war has NOT splintered Russian society, it has united them. This is not like Afghanistan, we are talking about millions of ethnic russians and russians speaking people in these territories, Russia has precisely ZERO incentives to discontinue the war and every reason to keep fighting for as long as it takes.

[@marksizer3486]

@@theforsakeen177 The whole EU is not hostile to them. I personally know several Russians who have moved to EU countries. I know more who have gone to Armenia and Turkey. Granted that anecdote is not data, but if I - some random American dude - know this many, there must be many, many more.

[@theforsakeen177]

@@marksizer3486 there are several europeans states that have either banned russian visas or toughened it so much as to be essentially the same, only those countries who are far away from russia and have no reason to fear a big russian minority (and for whom it would be harder for russians to reach in any case) have not bothered yet. Neither armenia nor turkey is part of the EU, armenia is or was until recently pretty much russia's vassal republic, their only defense against azerbajan and turkey, and the latter is aligned with russia.

[@matseklundh8241]

Great insight!

[@abhirams3179]

Do a video about Iran - Iraq war, and Indian liberation Of Goa and Diu from Portugese ,1961.

[@blackwatertv7018]

He did a video about the Iran-Iraq war

[@IKofTXS]

This video aged in a wild way huh?! The real world is better than any movie I've ever seen I swear..

[@dinsdalemontypiranha4349]

Didn't you share this one a few months ago? I've got a terrible memory, but I think that you did.

[@NegationGG]

Wait, isn't this a repost? I kinda recall this video being posted a few months ago or so

[@TheRadPlayer]

The irony of listening to this whilst playing a Russian Warlord in "The New Order: Last Days of Europe"

[@adaba4659]

Thanks to TNO, we now know we must ruthlessly hunt down any nutjob muttering about long lost Russian monarchs

[@ashothegod]

Ahh TNO the novel of a mod gotta love it

[@ethannaftalin2395]

Is this a reupload? I distinctly remember this video from several months ago.

[@jourdongirard]

This aged well

[@ythandle825]

it did

[@no-nonseplayer6612]

That KArelia looks really nice to to nap if Russia breaks down back to the Finland more likely somewhat autonomous region

[@johnschmitt5259]

This episode is something that no one else is thinking about but definitely should be. I'll be honest, I've been watching the war in Ukraine evolving and never thought once about all those crazy little subdivisions and small nations having a go at each other again. Or the matter of if Russia falls what the hell happens to all of their nukes? That is truly a scary question! As alway thank you to you and your team for another great episode! 👍👍

[@xtrajently]

This question is being talked about constantly.. But the really scary scenario is where Russia wins. Unfortunately for Ukraine, western allies are really great at scaring themselves with all kinds of future possibilities. Russian is more than willing to keep adding new food for thought.

[@travelswithted673]

Great video, thank you

[@lorenburnham821]

The Russian state collapsing seems a bit more likely after the fighting near belgorod

[@ingamgoduka57]

😂😂😂

[@abdullahiolownunow1235]

Wishful dreams and hallucinations

[@abdullahiolownunow1235]

Expect the rise of Russia and the collapse of US and western European NATO nations... Believe you me , you are in 20th century world... We are in 21st century .... No more western media monopoly....and propaganda

[@abdullahiolownunow1235]

Russia is unstoppable... Take it or leave it

[@petriew2018]

@@abdullahiolownunow1235 all of Kyiv is laughing at you right now. Kherson is just giving you the middle finger.

[@emilioi.valdez6680]

Is this a reupload Simon? What happened?

[@D.T.A1]

Russia has gone from “WE WILL TAKE KIEV IN 3DAYS" to “WE HAVE TAKEN BAKHMUT" for the 5 time to “ AS LONG AS WE KEEP CRIMEA " ... NOT GONNA HAPPEN..LOL

[@cof6466]

Love your videos

[@triadwarfare]

If Russia wins, it'll also lead to more wars, considering Russia had "broken the status quo" and made invading countries popular again. It is really a dilemma and it doesn't matter if Russia wins or loses, wars will now be an inevitable because they opened the pandora's box by invading Ukraine.

[@johndole9810]

What about the US invasions iraq.

[@conlaiarla]

You must have missed the last 30 years to come up with that rubbish 😂

[@r3v3rbs0ul]

"now"?

[@triadwarfare]

@@johndole9810 whataboutism. Also, the US did not annex Iraq or Afghanistan. They still have their own governments independent of the US. Can't say the same for Russia who annxed partially controlled territories with a faux referendum.

[@triadwarfare]

@@conlaiarla you must have missed last year to come up with that rubbish. China's definitely eyeing to claim new territory in the South China Sea, Taiwan and Indian border. Had Russia easily taken Ukraine, China will launch a campaign for its own interest considering they've been building up their military since Xi Jingping was in office.

[@TheVoiceOfReason93]

Russia NOT defeated will still lead to more wars. So if both ways lead to the same outcome anyway, we might as well choose the one where Russia is defeated.

[@petermiller7978]

Great Analysis Simon - but you haven't even mentioned Japan wanting the Kuril Islands back & China claiming Manchuria be returned.... after WW2... peter miller from Bristol UK

[@RitchieSacramento88]

Wasn't this uploaded a few weeks ago?

[@jacoblaney5157]

The opener didn't age well.

[@Nturner822]

Some of your videos have a drawl/monotone that can make them a bit dull, but this one was great! Noice

[@Nathan-vt1jz]

It’s pretty optimistic to think Ukraine will take Crimea in the coming offensive. I think Ukraine will and needs to do well in their offensive. Regardless, the cracks in the Russian Federation are showing.

[@Jay_Frank]

Yeah Crimea is a natural fortress. It took Russians mass casualties and an overwhelming force to liberate it from Nazi Germany.

[@mattkelly9000]

What cracks? I’m not seeing any advancements from the Ukrainians. After talking about a counter offensive for months Russia has just entrenched themselves. Plenty of time to fortify defenses and prep for the ensuing battle. The counteroffensive is gunna be a bloody disaster. I think Ukraine knows that, hints why we haven’t seen anything yet and we are about to be in early summer,

[@rpgadventurer32]

No, that's not true. You need to distinguish between war propaganda and reality. The Ukrainians are not winning on the ground.

[@krisshnapeswanipeswani3190]

​@@mattkelly9000 they are not supposed to either. Just cause losses. Ukraine needa to attrit russia and then attack them with western weopens

[@asmbeats5369]

@A Karen Let him ramble, he's out of his medication.

[@bgmsbnb]

At 10:10 you misquote the title of the famous, and most appropriately named book by Chinua Achebe "Things Fall Apart", calling it "Thing Fall Apart". Was that an oversight?

[@pakde8002]

Either I'm having Deja Vu or Simon is recycling video titles

[@TacticalTerry]

The video had to be re-uploaded with a content warning via request from youtube

[@B1gLupu]

Is this a rerelease? I remember seeing this same title previously. Is there any new info?

[@joelhernstrom6060]

The fact a russian rebel group has siezed a major city on russian soil yeah. Belgorod is no longer officially under Putin’s control

[@jesupdaniel2752]

It’s kinda like Saddam and Iraq. He was definitely a horrible person but the region as a whole as been worse off since he was removed.

[@ChucksSEADnDEAD]

It was like 190k dead to uphold the Saddam regime and 220k dead in the aftermath of 2003. Not a big improvement. Plus Iran injected weapons and financing to purposefully destabilize Iraq.

[@RabbitShirak]

Power vacuums give rise to opportunistic organisations

[@BioLegacy141]

Why a reupload?

[@paulchapman8023]

With what the Freedom of Russia Legion is doing in Belgorod, it seems like the Pax Russica is already breaking down.

[@mattkelly9000]

Lol that Belgorod mission was a complete failure. 39 of the 39 Ukrainian troops are KIA already. Seen a video of them popping out of bushing on a civilian car and smoking the driver. It was a complete failure. It was for propaganda purposes. They know they lost bahkmut and need a moral boost. That lasted less than a day.

[@Mortablunt]

Making sure the flies eat well. Z!

[@asmbeats5369]

​@@mattkelly9000 Copetimus Prime.

[@Cyle_C]

Dude a squad of ten guys just hot massacred. Legion? Lol

[@mattkelly9000]

@@asmbeats5369 how am I wrong? I’m not sure if you understand what coping is. I’m not a pro Russian side either. Both sides are to blinded by their own hatred they are being manipulated into thinking some really bizarre crap.

[@darrinwebber4077]

If Russia falls apart like USSR... Expect similar things to happen. Some of new States may get their acts together.... Others will fall into chaos. And there would be more wars....as old rivalries heated back up... ( Looking at Azerbaijan and Armenia as examples...)

[@userthomash]

Love how fucking rebels took the same amount of land in 6 hours than Russia took in 9 months

[@notastone4832]

except they lost that land the same day and lost most of their fighters..

[@rpgadventurer32]

They are not "rebels". These were Russians in the service of Ukraine. They entered from Ukraine, they were defeated and nothing happened. You're believing bullshit war propaganda. You can dislike the Russians if you want to, but please, demand from channels such as this to stop spreading disinformation.

[@tarikshukri7796]

@@notastone4832 according to who?

[@tsartomato]

@@tarikshukri7796 ministry of defence it's not rebels just armed prankers and it's not the first time they do this backline raiders

[@lureyourpery5569]

He re upload the video. I was looking for it after I heard the news

[@motorosso3349]

Interesting ideas about the possible breakdown of Russian power. The recent invasion into Russia by "Russian Patriots" is very interesting.

[@andersjjensen]

No need to put that in quotes. The definition of a patriot is not synonymous with being a regime loyalist. These are, obviously, heavily backed by Ukraine, but they are Russian nationals, and their recent message is very clear: The systemic corruption, censorship of media and draconian laws of the Putin regime has to go, and the fight has to be done by Russians themselves.

[@Mortablunt]

And by patriots, it turns out they’r Nazis backed by Nazis of Kyiv. Isn’t it weird how all these Nazis mysteriously find each other? Isn’t it strange how the supposed forces of freedom for Russia are Nazis, Ethnofascists, Ukrainian Nazis, and rogue Islamist dominionists? None of these sound free and democratic to me. They all sound like tyrants, intent on breaking up the federation and slaughtering everyone they don’t like in it..

[@rpgadventurer32]

There wasn't any invasion of "Russian patriots" it was a unit of Ukraine who entered the territory and they were defeated. You're believing nonsensical war propaganda.

[@olex2999]

How many hours did that "invasion" last?

[@Ali-bu6lo]

Is this a re-upload?

[@Faynegillia]

While talking about all these posts Soviet wars, the author actually failed to recognize that the russia was the reason of all these wars in the first place and therefore it was beneficial for russia to make all these conflict frozen so therefore Russia can continue to exert its power and influence in the future.

[@7thsealord888]

Regardless of who wins and by how much, there will be more wars. Only the who, where and why may vary.

[@05hdmike]

as an American, i would like to see more maps to show the locations of the countries. i know it is my falt for not knowing where the locations are. but you people over there change countries a lot....lol thank you for thinking of us dumb Americans......lol

[@RabbitShirak]

Finnish here. And you're not dumb, I also think maps could be quite useful here and there.

[@PatrickBurns69]

What is that pink doughnut of light over your right shoulder? Thanks for this interesting video.

[@TheLazer3]

After yesterday this feels a bit dated with events in belograd.

[@NITROexpress17]

This video was originally months old just taken down and reuploaded for whatever reason

[@vic5015]

Didn't Simon do this video already a few months ago?

[@bradbrandon2506]

Call me crazy, but I hope Ukraine gains some territory from this war. After the terror that Russia has put them through, they at least owe Ukraine a bit of land for their troubles, in my opinion.

[@METAnonymous1]

is this a re-upload? I saw this when it was first posted months ago.

[@ostapshchurko3089]

Your Ukraine coverage across the several awesome channels you guys have are great!! Keep them coming, always look forward to them ❤

[@Hobbes4ever]

they are already a client state of the PRC

[@jeromebarry1741]

While a collapse of the Russian state is not expected in the near term, the nice thing about it happening any time in the next 10 years. is that the Russian's armories are being emptied by the present conflict.

[@ARandomUser6969]

Ukraine and any remaining of Russia's "core" (Moscow and surrounding regions that border up to Belarus, Latvia northern Ukraine and eastward to west a good way of the Urals) would definitely have weapon proliferation if things collapsed while other areas will be less so.

[@lucasgood4441]

This was very, very informative. Serious question, no disrespect: Is his voice for real?

[@ClericOfPholtus]

Do you mean is he UK? Think so, yeah.

[@milodebruin4821]

It's real, but if you watch some of his earlier videos he has cultivated the accent and got much better at speaking. That's said, his production values are much better.

[@Normal_macdonald]

... "They only occupied a third of our country so we're winning" Lol Lmao

[@ythandle825]

now less than 1/5th.(1/4th if you include crimea) so yeah, nobody is able to teleport. the simple fact that russia is not advancing(remember, the second biggest military in the world), and ukraine is taking land back, means that russia is not winning. not to mention their massive losses